方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 623 条 · 第 11 / 13 页
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建议无视短期噪音持有AI股，等待剧烈反弹。
🎯. 我们以前见过类似的情况，比如 $NBIS 从 $140 跌至 $94，然后在两周内暴力反弹至 $130。这次似乎更广泛且回撤时间更长，大多数高贝塔股票从 $SMCI 到 $RDDT 都在下跌，其中 AI 板块集中度最高。正如你所说，任何反弹可能都会很剧烈，因此最好在这些波动时期持有，以免错过 1-2 个最大的反弹日。显然，当前的市场下跌是多方面的，包括散户投降、保证金清算、宏观因素，以及对 GPU 过时/AI 交易信贷收紧的一些合理担忧。然而，最重要的是关注基本面而非短期噪音（目前恐惧与贪婪指数处于 9/100 的极度恐惧状态）。
英文原文
🎯. We've seen this before with stocks like $NBIS on the drop from $140 -> $94 and then the violent recovery to $130 all in the span of 2 weeks. This time it seems broader + longer drawdown with most high-beta stocks dropping from $SMCI to $RDDT with highest concentration of AI sector. As you mentioned, any recovery will likely be violent, which is why it's better to hold through these volatile times, than missing out 1-2 of the biggest recovery days. Obviously the current market drop multi-facted with retail capitulation, margin liquidation, macro, and some valid concerns over GPU deprecation/credit tightening of the AI trade added on top. However, the most important thing is to look at fundamentals over short term noise (with fear and greed being extreme fear right now at 9/100).
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高贝塔资产遭抛售属市场重置，基本面改善应耐心持有。
从 $RKLB、$HOOD、$BTC（现89k）、$HIMS 等所有高贝塔/“风险”/成长型资产都在被无情抛售。尽管基本面全面改善，但这源于连环保证金清算和投降式抛售（基于部分合理的担忧）后的良好重置。以 $IREN 为例，散户仅因 Robinhood 数据就在股价创新低时抛售。但散户通常是在 $MSFT 交易后 $80 高点买入，而在崩盘后 $45 低位最后卖出。此时只需关注新周期、降息、期权到期，并耐心等待，因为基本面正在全面改善。如果盈利和远期收入放缓，我会大幅减仓（但事实并非如此，我们看到的是创纪录的增长）。
英文原文
Every high beta/“risk”/growth asset from $RKLB, $HOOD, $BTC (89k now), $HIMS is being obliterated. It’s a great reset from cascading margin liquidations and capitulation (based on semi-valid concerns) despite seeing improving fundamentals across the board. $IREN retail is selling off for example just based on Robinhood data even while stock is at new lows. But retail is typically the one to buy at the highest point $80 post $MSFT deal and and last to sell eg. $45 post crash. At this point it’s just new cycles, rate cut, option expirations, and waiting since fundamentals are improving across the board. If earnings were slowing and forward revenue was slowing, I would be selling well (but it’s not, we’re seeing record growth)
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澄清研究框架，强调信贷与债务风险对板块的影响。
两件事： - 阅读时最好越过第一句继续往下看 - 隔一个交易日再看帖子，百分比数据会发生变化。 我尊重你的专注，但你正在聚焦于一个无人进行的直接对比。这确实是一篇长文，大多数人可能会跳过正文直接看评论，但文中所做的唯一直接对比是： - NeoClouds（新云厂商）与Mag7（科技七巨头）的合同 - NeoClouds与资产负债表健康的公司 - 未与OpenAI直接签约的NeoClouds 所以再次帮你梳理一下，整篇文章的核心是关于信贷市场、债务结构、OpenAI资本支出悬顶，以及影响整个板块的生态系统风险。 使用1周到1个月的时间框架是为了展示NeoClouds从何处下跌（例如$IREN在微软交易后），以反映板块在盘前的整体下跌。使用隔一个交易日NeoClouds从盘前跌幅中恢复后的不同价格，并不会改变或有利于该论点。 阅读时最好越过第一句（我也持有$IREN）
英文原文
So two things: - It helps to read past the first sentence - percentages change when you look at a post a trading day later. I respect your dedication, but you’re zeroing in on a direct comparison nobody is making. It’s a long post for sure and most would just skip it and go to comments but the only direct comparisons made were - neoclouds with mag7 contracts - neoclouds with healthy balance sheets - neoclouds that don’t directly have contracts with OpenAI. So just to help you again, the whole post was about credit markets, debt structure, OpenAI capex overhang, and ecosystem risk affecting the whole sector. Using 1W to 1M timeframe is to show levels neoclouds dropped from (eg. $IREN after MSFT deal) for a sector wide drop from premarket. Using different prices a trading fay later when neoclouds recovered from premarket doesn’t change or favor the thesis. It helps to read past the first sentence (I own $IREN too)
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指出AI处理海量13F文件存在局限，曾尝试但结果出错。
@number1invest_ @grok 让 Grok 处理通过审查每一份 13F 文件(13F Filing)来进行的大量数据计算(13F filing)可能太多了。我记得在另一个帖子中要求它只输出一个结果，但它搞错了。 https://t.co/rP8XZNQMpX
英文原文
@number1invest_ @grok there's probably too much number crunching by reviewing every single 13F filing for Grok to handle. I remember asking it one single output in another thread but they go it wrong. https://t.co/rP8XZNQMpX
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推荐Fintel和纳斯达克机构持仓数据源
@beauty_oe @babyfolio Fintel 和纳斯达克机构持仓板块(Nasdaq institutional holdings section)
英文原文
@beauty_oe @babyfolio Fintel and Nasdaq institutional holdings section
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13F多为噪音，短期下跌属宏观无差别抛售。
不，13F 文件（13F filings）很多时候只是噪音，除非是伯克希尔（Berkshire）在买入。而这些评分只是判断某只股票是否适合长期持有（例如：是否有大量长期被动基金投资者做多该股票）这一多维方法中的一个小信号。 短期内，像 $CIFR 或 $CORZ 这样的下跌是宏观因素导致的，因此这是全市场的无差别抛售。
英文原文
No, 13F filings a lot of time is just noise unless you have Berkshire buying in. And these scores are just one small signal of a multifaceted way to determine if something is a good long (eg. Do you have lots of long-passive fund investors going long on a stock) Short term on stuff like $CIFR or $CORZ drops were macro, so it’s an indiscriminate selloff across the board.
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建议现金党通过卖出CSP期权以低价获取权利金。
@rioferdy838 @Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm 对于 $NBIS 和矿企，如果你是现金党，是的，请卖出接近当前行权价（如 $105）的云服务提供商(CSP)期权，因为你的目标是以最低价格被指派并获取权利金。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm With $NBIS and miners if you’re cash gang, yeah write CSPs closer to current strike like $105 since your goal is to get assigned + premium at the lowest prices
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投资无绝对优劣，需基于当前市值权衡风险与回报。
@Antonzeehow 其实并没有绝对的从优到劣排名。更多是基于当前信息，在风险与回报之间的权衡取舍。 别太当真，这只是我基于当前市值(Market Cap)的个人直觉。 https://t.co/RiCqPEOANm
英文原文
@Antonzeehow There's not really a best to worst. It's more of trade-offs from risk vs. reward given current information. Don't take this too seriously, but this is just my personal feeling right now given current MC's. https://t.co/RiCqPEOANm
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AI工具在分析Neoclouds时存在缺陷，作者更倾向手动整合信息并采用估值建模。
我发现像 @AskPerplexity、Grok 等 AI 工具在研究 Neoclouds（新型云服务商）和每日新闻频发的板块时，结果往往极不准确。它们会遗漏大量细节，例如 $NBIS 的白皮书中有关于与 $CRWV 等对比的利用率信息，这些数据对 AI 不可见（暗示了 GPU 利用率带来的毛利率增长）。当 Meta 与 $CRWV 达成 140 亿美元交易，且上周 $AMZN、$MSFT 等发布财报显示 AI 资本支出增加时，AI 可能会忽略那些未直接提及 $NBIS 但暗示超大规模云厂商交易增加的顺风因素。或者几天前的额外降息提振了涉及债务的 Neoclouds 的前瞻性盈利。亦或是关于 Clickhouse 等子公司或投资组合公司的新信息，AI 可能无法将其串联起来。FinX 散户在将这些信息拼凑成前瞻性增长方面做得更好，鉴于 AI/Neocloud 的总可寻址市场(TAM)具有高度投机性和快速增长，很难建模。这也是我采用估值方法的原因（在我之前关于 $NBIS 如何达到 1000 亿美元市值的帖子中），但如果看 $UPWK 等更标准的业务，我的估值建模方式则不同。
英文原文
I've actually found AI tools like @AskPerplexity, Grok and others to be extremely off when looking at Neoclouds and sectors with new news every day. They miss a lot of details, eg. with $NBIS you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization). When Meta struck a $14B deal with $CRWV and you have earnings report last week from $AMZN, $MSFT, and others you have increased capex spend into AI, and they might miss tailwinds that don't mention $NBIS directly with increased changes of more hyperscaler deals. Or when there's an additional rate cut a few days ago that boosts forward earnings especially with Neoclouds that involve debt. Or when there's new information about subsidiaries or portfolio companies like Clickhouse that AI might put 1+1 together with. FinX retail does a lot better job with piecing all this information together into forward growth and AI/Neocloud TAM is really hard to model given how speculative and rapidly growing it is. That's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS), but if you look at $UPWK and more standard businesses. I do valuation modelling differently
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批评盲目跟风，强调投资需基于实质性估值分析。
谢谢，我快速浏览了一下（未做事实核查），这是一篇关于 $NVO 的很棒的文章。 我不指望原帖作者（OP）能达到你这样的尽职调查(DD)水平，但当 OP 不断发帖称其“便宜”时，至少应给出一些实质性的解释。 4%的股息率和双位数的销售额增长，对于任何进行估值的人来说都毫无意义。 但粉丝可能只是盲目跟随，而不是基于有信息量的信息做出自己的选择。
英文原文
Thanks did a quick skim (didn’t fact check tho), that’s a great write up for $NVO. I don’t expect your level of DD from OP but at least when OP keeps posting“cheap”, at least give some substance in an explanation. 4% dividend and double digit sales growth just means absolutely jack to anyone doing valuations. But followers might just blindly follow rather than making their own choices based on informative info.
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批评仅凭“便宜”而无实质分析的帖子误导粉丝。
@dividenddude 恕我直言，这类帖子基本上没有任何实质内容或分析。你昨天对 $FI 说“便宜”，现在又对 $NVO 这么说。用毫无用处的解释声称某物“便宜”，只会让粉丝盲目亏钱。
英文原文
@dividenddude With all due respect, there’s basically zero substance or analysis from these types of posts. You’ve done this with $FI yesterday saying “CHEAP” then this again with $NVO. Saying something is cheap with useless explanations is how followers end up blindly losing money.
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持有ETF和LEAPS是安全的上行策略，需匹配个人风险偏好。
@WZRDtheWise @blu400_ 持有像 $META 这样的 ETF 和长期期权(LEAPS) 并没有错。这大概是最安全的上行策略，而且每个人的风险偏好都不同。
英文原文
@WZRDtheWise @blu400_ There’s nothing wrong with holding ETFs and Leaps on stuff like $META. That is probably the safest upside thing to do, and everyone has different risk profiles.
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博主分享通过评论和私信挖掘小盘股的研究方法。
@cmachdop 我基本上会去查评论区提到的每一个股票代码，比如 $ABAT，或者人们@我的那些。很多人也会私信我询问关于小盘股的事，我从中学到了很多。虽然不完全是那种极小盘股，但我目前正在关注 $LGN，因为它是“七巨头”（Mag7）的客户。
英文原文
@cmachdop I kind of just look up every ticker that gets mentioned on comments $ABAT or what people tag me in. Many people DM me too asking about small caps and I learn a lot there. It's not quite your extremely small cap but I'm looking at $LGN right now because of mag7 clients.
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纠正对方操作错误，分享仓位轮动方法。
@DeepValueBagger 所以你实际上做错了。以下是如何进行仓位轮动(rotate positions)。https://t.co/BdvlwPzl2M
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger So you're actually doing it wrong. Here's how you rotate positions. https://t.co/BdvlwPzl2M
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强调投资需基于可扩展基本面，建议投资者独立研究决策。
是的，你提出的观点很棒。我以量子计算股票如 $RGTI 为例，提醒在整合仓位时需谨慎，但你提到了 $FLNC。经验法则是，重要的是要知道股票定价何时由可扩展的基本面支撑。但我在此帖中并非要为任何个股树立观点，只是举例。人们应自行研究并做出自己的选择。
英文原文
Yep that's a great point you made. I gave quantum stocks like $RGTI as an example of caution if you're consolidating, but you mentioned $FLNC. Rule of thumb is that it's important to know when the pricing of a stock is backed up by scaling fundamentals. But I'm not here to make a point with any individual stocks in this post, just gave examples. People should do their research and make their own choices.
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建议对$FLY进行税务亏损收割并一月后重买，以优化税务并降低杠杆风险。
所以 $FLY 在这里挺有意思，因为它处于税务亏损收割(tax harvesting)的范围内，毕竟年初至今(YTD)已下跌57%。 我喜欢它，因为它是针对2026年中型起降(medium-lift)市场的布局，并非短期持有标的。 但既然你使用了过多的杠杆(margin)，那么现在进行税务亏损收割，然后在一个月后重新买入(re-rebuy)可能是一个好主意，这样你可以在一个月后以可能相似的成本持有相同头寸，同时降低应税收益(taxable gains)。 是的，正如你所说，在更好的时机进行税务亏损收割比在下跌6.3%后立即操作更好，虽然感觉不太好，但年底(EOY)很难逆着税务亏损收割的潮流而行，我个人在交易像 $SNAP 或 $ETOR 这类股票时也总是低估这一点。
英文原文
So $FLY is a interesting one here because it's in the tax harvesting lot since it's down 57% YTD. I like it because it's a 2026 play for medium-lift, not exactly a short term hold. But since you're using too much margin, then it might be a good idea to tax harvest now then re-rebuy 1 month later, so you can lower any taxable gains while having the same position 1 month later at possibly similar costs. Yeah as you mentioned better to tax harvest on a better time rather than right after a 6.3% drop, feels bad but it's hard to go against the tax-harvesting flow EOY and I always underestimate it too personally when trading stuff like $SNAP or $ETOR.
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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根据交易策略和标的波动性选择券商平台
我在盈透证券(IBKR)之外也使用Robinhood和Charles Schwab。使用多个平台没问题。 但如果你大量交易期权，建议转向$IBKR或Fidelity，因为两者的执行质量极佳。在波动性更高的情况下，$IBKR可能略胜Fidelity。 不过情况很微妙。如果买卖价差很低（如$MSFT或$SPY），$HOOD优于其他平台，你实际上能省钱。 如果你在$CIFR或高隐含波动率(IV)股票上卖出期权，价差通常大得多，仅因糟糕的成交执行（例如交易6万美元期权）就可能损失数千美元，此时你最好从$HOOD转移。 如果是长期投资且不加杠杆，平台选择其实无所谓。如果是长期投资且使用股票保证金，$IBKR或Robinhood很棒，因为保证金利率较低，而Schwab/Fidelity较高。 总之，这取决于你的具体目标和持仓股票，情况相当微妙。
英文原文
I use Robinhood and Charles Schwab too on top of IBKR. It's fine to use multiple. But if you're doing a ton of options it's worth going to $IBKR or Fidelity since both of them have great execution. IBKR probably tops out Fidelity when it comes to more volatility. It's nuanced though. $HOOD beats other platforms if the spread is low like $MSFT or $SPY and you'll actually save money. If you're selling options on $CIFR or higher IV stocks, the spread is likely to be much much higher and you can lose thousands of dollars (if you trade with $60k in options for example) just based on bad fills and completely you're better off moving from $HOOD. If you're long term investing, no margin, doesn't really matter what platform you go. If you're long term investing margin with shares, IBKR or Robinhood are great cause margin rates are low, while Schwab/Fidelity are higher. Again it's kinda nuanced depending on what exactly you're aiming to do, what stocks you have.
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博主澄清其AI、半导体及金融背景，强调论点应独立于身份。
我本不打算回复，但鉴于其他评论试图用“年初至今(YTD)表现”这种诉诸权威的方式来否定我的论点。我曾是AI领域的研究科学家，在《自然》等期刊发表过几篇论文。我在半导体领域也拥有专利。我现在经营一家金融科技(fintech)公司，所以很擅长数据计算。顺便提一下 @mithrilcompute，前几天我和他们的CEO喝咖啡聊过，所以与业内人士的日常交流也很有帮助。这三个不同领域的背景有助于我理解数据中心(data center)领域。如果你看过我的其他评论，我会始终承认自己缺乏领域知识，并避免给出方向性观点。此外，论点应独立成立，而非基于发言人的身份。
英文原文
I wasn’t going to reply to this but just because other comments tried appealing to authority like YTD performance to invalidate the thesis. I was a research scientist in AI with a few published papers in journals like Nature. I also have patents in the semiconductor space. I now run a fintech company, so im decent with number crunching. Just a quick shoutout to @mithrilcompute, talked with their CEO the other day over coffee, so just daily chats with people in the space help a lot too. So all three different domains helps a bit with understanding data center space. If you read my other comments, I’ll always acknowledge if I don’t have domain knowledge and refrain from giving directional posts. Also arguments should stand on their own, not based on who it came from.
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提醒市场通常提前两周半将事件预期计入价格。
@basanthgowda @DeepValueBagger 我并不是在建议采取任何行动，只是发出一个警告信息。 但通常情况下，市场会在事件发生前约两周半开始更多地将其计入价格（priced in）。
英文原文
@basanthgowda @DeepValueBagger I’m not saying to do anything, just giving a warning message. But generally it starts getting priced in more 2 1/2 weekish before the event
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演示极度保守的估值方法，通过大幅折价计算持仓净值。
$58.8亿（现金）+ $26.8亿（投资组合公司股权，但我认为被低估了）+ 实物资产：约$20亿 = 105.6亿。 然后你对实物资产/投资组合股权打约6折，因为公司交易价格并不真的与净资产值(NAV) 1:1挂钩 = 持仓价值28.08亿 然后对现金打一些折扣，但幅度小得多，因为现金就是现金 = $58.8亿中的约43亿 28 + 43 = ~71（在极度保守的一端）
英文原文
$5.88B (cash) + $2.68B (equity in portfolio companies, but undervalued it) + Physical Assets: ~$2B = 10.56B. Then you slash ~40% off physical assets/portfolio equity because companies don't really trade 1:1 with NAV = 2.808B in holdings Then discount some cash but a lot less since cash is just cash = 4.3b-ish of $5.88B 2.8 + 4.3 = ~7.1 (on the hyper conservative end)
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公开披露往往伴随股价高估，非买入信号，应提前独立决策。
@jeanli28 @itsthesquonky 当像 $OPEN 这样被披露时，股价可能已经涨得太多了。这并不是一个好的买入信号，人们应该在任何大幅上涨之前做出自己的决定，所以这没什么值得庆祝的，尤其是 Jane Street 哈哈。
英文原文
@jeanli28 @itsthesquonky The moment it’s disclosed like $OPEN it’s probably run up too much. Its not a good buy signal, people should be making their own decisions before any major run up, so its not something to be celebrating, especially Jane street lol
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反驳“当前价格已充分反映”观点，强调市场低效带来的套利机会。
他们什么都没搞对。“当前价格已充分反映。”这完全是错的。 他在寻找超额收益的方向上是对的，但想用一些Instagram风格的励志语录。 如果当前价格总是被正确定价，就没人能通过利用市场低效来赚钱了。 不久前，由于市场未能正确定价，套利 $BULL 股票与认股权证就是白捡的钱。或者像 $UPWK 这样大量被错估的股票，以低于6.5倍的市盈率交易，却拥有庞大的现金资产负债表和增长。
英文原文
They didn't nail anything. "The present is already priced." This is literally wrong. He's correct directionally finding alpha, but wanted to use some Instagram style inspirational quote. If the present were always correctly priced, nobody would make money exploiting market inefficiencies. It was free money arbitraging $BULL shares vs. warrants not too long ago due to markets not pricing things in correctly. Or tons of misvalued equities like $UPWK trading way trading under 6.5 P/E with large cash balance sheets and growth.
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AI非泡沫因有收入支撑，量子核能属投机，降息后或现狂热。
@accounting_ds @soulbiri1 目前肯定还不是人工智能(AI)的狂热(euphoria)或泡沫，因为大多数公司都有远期收入支撑。量子/核能目前是一个投机性泡沫，关键矿产(critical minerals)可能也是。我们可能在三次降息后才会看到狂热的真正含义。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @soulbiri1 It’s definitely not euphoria in AI or a bubble yet since most are backed by forward revenue. Quantum/nuclear is a speculative bubble to right now, possibly critical minerals. We might see the true meaning of euphoria after triple rate cut
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建议优先使用融资而非2倍杠杆ETF，因后者存在波动率损耗。
不，如果你可以使用融资(Margin)或期权(Options)，使用2倍杠杆ETF几乎没有任何好处。如果你想要相同的敞口，直接使用融资买入普通股即可。2倍杠杆ETF存在波动率损耗(Volatility Decay)，因此不适合长期持有。 也许如果你无法在IRA中使用融资，或者你的维持保证金要求(Margin Maintenance)极高（例如80%），那么使用它是可以理解的。
英文原文
No, there's almost no benefit for 2x leveraged etfs if you have margin or options. Just go with common stock on margin if you want the same exposure. 2x leveraged ETFs have volatility decay so it's not good to hold. Maybe if you cant have margin in an ira or something and have super high margin maintenance like 80% it's understandable.
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作者因看好基本面在NBIS回调时加仓，并致力于普及机构投资方法论。
谢谢！我个人不太介意32%的回撤，因为我确信$NBIS仅凭基本面和现有合同就能恢复。所以我利用这段时间加仓。 但很多散户可能因为他们是追涨买入的而感到担忧。 所以我正尽力普及基本面以及做市商/机构用于构建投资组合规模的方法论，以便人们能做出更清晰的决策。
英文原文
Thanks! I personally don't mind a 32% drawdown as much since I'm confident $NBIS will recover purely based off of fundamentals and existing contracts. So I use this time to add more. But a lot of retail are probably worried because they bought off momentum. So I'm trying my best to spread awareness of fundamentals + tactics MMs/insitutions use to build up portfolio sizing so people can make clearer decisions.
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WSB是底部信号，长期方向准但短视，逆向操作需定力。
@AkaliOnYT 是的，/r/wallstreetbets 是 $NBIS 等股票的绝佳底部信号。他们对 $RKLB、$HOOD、$TSM 和 $MU 的长期方向判断往往正确，但注意力持续时间只有一个月。能说服自己采取相反操作是一项特殊技能。
英文原文
@AkaliOnYT Yeah /r/wallstreetbets is a great bottom signal for $NBIS and others. They’re often directionally right long term $RKLB, $HOOD, $TSM, and $MU but have 1 month long attention spans. It's a special skill to convince yourself to do the opposite.
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期权风险管理：1年期平衡杠杆与税优，2年期建议改用融资。
仅仅是为了更远期(OTM)的风险管理。 对于更长的到期时间，通常你希望最大化杠杆，同时最小化时间价值衰减(Theta decay)；此外，1年期节点也是长期资本利得税的甜蜜点。 例如，当你选择两年期时，权利金会变得有点高，此时你不如直接使用融资(Margin)。
英文原文
Just risk management for more OTM. For more out in time, usually you want to maximize leverage while minimizing theta decay + 1 year mark is sweet spot as well for long term capital gains tax. When you go two years out for example, premium gets a bit high and you might as well use margin.
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反思机构年底税务收割效应及RDDT买入逻辑
是的，我总是低估对冲基金/机构（Institutions）的税务收割（Tax Harvesting）效应。每当像 $ETOR 这样的股票下跌 2% 时，我会想“不可能再低了”，结果它确实更低了。这仅适用于年底（10月/11月/12月初）年内下跌的股票。是的，我在周五 $190 时买入 $RDDT，随后它反弹至 $195，鉴于大家都用它，它肯定能站稳。
英文原文
Yeah I always underestimate tax harvesting effects from hedge funds/institutions. Whenever a stock like $ETOR goes 2% lower, I think "it can't get any lower than this" then it does. This only applies end of year for Oct/Nov/early December for stocks down on the year. Yeah I bought $RDDT at $190 on Friday before it recovered to $195, it's definitely here to stay since everyone uses it lol.
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作者偏好低流通盘股票以博取高收益，但建议同时持有期权。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 今年我见过太多低流通盘(low float) IPO 涨幅超过 700% 的案例，从 $BULL 到 $NMAX 哈哈……或者去年 $DJT 到 $OKLO，但那些是 300% 的涨幅。 所以我个人更偏爱股票，仅仅是为了那 25% 的低流通盘拉升机会。但聪明人应该两者都持有。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot I’ve just seen so many lower float 700%+ IPOs this year from $BULL to $NMAX lol… or $DJT to $OKLO last year but those were 300% gains. So I prefer shares myself just for that 25% chance on a low float rally. But a smart person would have both.
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禁售期解禁及套利后定价合理，仅首月存在相对股价的定价错误。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 不过是的，在禁售期(lockups)解禁和套利(arbitrage)之后，它们的定价是正确的（忘了补充这一点）。仅在第一个月，相对于股价(share price)它们存在定价错误(mispriced)。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot But yeah after lockups + arbitrage they’re priced correctly (forgot to add this) Just in month 1 they’re mispriced relative to share price
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低流通盘IPO普通股爆发力强于认股权证，需权衡杠杆与稀释风险。
我刚才提到，由于流通盘（float）低，SPAC IPO 的普通股经常会出现 600%-1000% 的惊人回报，而认股权证（warrants）则无法享受这种收益。我们还看到过其他低流通盘 IPO 的类似走势，比如 Newsmax 因低流通盘上涨 500%。认股权证无法像普通股那样放大收益，因为它们在行权时会考虑稀释效应，且其他锁定期（lockups）结束后也会产生稀释。因此我有时会进行认股权证套利，且它们经常定价偏低。例如 Bull 的认股权证曾以每股 $16 交易，而股价为 $80；当时 Bull 股价 $29、认股权证 $13.5 时是可以对冲的。我需要进一步研究流通盘规模，但我的观点是：我宁愿错过认股权证的杠杆，也不愿错过低流通盘 IPO 的 500% 暴涨。我的意思是，500% 的收益可能优于长期持有的 200%，但如果流通盘充足，我也会考虑认股权证（这点我需要进一步研究）。
英文原文
I was just saying some hilarious 600%-1000% returns happen a lot on SPAC ipo’s with shares because of low float and you miss out on it with warrants vs. shares. We also saw some other low float moves with IPOs like Newsmax up 500% on low float. And warrants don’t scale with shares because they consider in dilution after warrants and other lockups can be exercised. Hence why I do warrant arbitrage sometimes and why they’re underpriced a lot of time. Like warrants on bull were trading at $16 per bull share while share price was $80 on bull. Hedging was available at the time when bull was $13.5 a warrant and shares were $29 I’ll need to do more research on float size but my point was in general I’d rather miss out on warrant leverage than a 500% pop on low float IPOs. And a 500% gain is probably better than 200% after a long time was my point, but if there’s a decent amount of float I’d do warrants too (I’ll need to look into this more)
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SPAC IPO中因禁售期限制，首月股票流动性低涨幅大，优于认股权证。
作为一个经常参与像 $BULL 这样的 SPAC IPO（特殊目的收购公司首次公开募股）的人，你会错过带有认股权证（Warrants）的 SPAC 股票带来的疯狂上涨（例如 600%+），因为你必须等待一个月后才能转换认股权证。 许多内部人士/禁售协议（Lockup Agreements）在认股权证可转换之前也无法出售或转换。（因此，前一到两周仅持有股票的回报率最高。 而且认股权证通常被低估，因为它们计入了稀释因素。例如 $BULL IPO 价格约为 $10，股价涨至 $80，而认股权证仍将其定价为 $16（$10 行权价 - $6/认股权证）。 因此，我通常在 SPAC IPO 中更偏好股票而非认股权证，因为第一个月内流通盘（Float）很小。
英文原文
As someone who frequently does SPAC IPOs like $BULL, you miss out on the crazy upside (eg. 600%+) on spac shares with warrants because you can’t convert warrants until one month later. A lot of insiders/lockup agreements can’t sell or convert as well until warrants can be converted too. (So first week or two has highest return with shares only. And warrants are typically underpriced since they factor in dilution. For example $BULL ipo’d around $10, rose to $80, while warrants were still pricing it at $16 $10 strike - $6/warrant. So I typically prefer shares over warrants on spac ipos, since it’s low float for a month.
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解释高确信度持仓与多股并发波段交易策略
批评得中肯。我认为一个重要的细微差别是，我的投资组合大部分是高确信度的（比特币、金融科技、新云厂商、$RKLB）。我只拿出较小比例用于主动波段交易+中期持有以等待重估（$SNAP、$ETOR），而这些正是我在市场持续下跌而非反弹时的亏损来源。这是我的个人交易风格，同时监控40多只股票，因为我不长期持有主动交易头寸，例如，如果我在$HIMS下跌14%时以50美元买入，随后上涨8%，我就会止盈。我发现如果同时操作大量股票，这种策略通常效果最好，否则等待单只股票（如Reddit）波段回归的时间会太长。我个人对此方法取得了成功，所以我会继续这样做。
英文原文
That’s fair criticism. I think an important nuance is majority of my portfolio is in high conviction (bitcoin, fintech, neoclouds, rklb). I take a smaller percentage just for active swing trading + medium term holds for re-rating (snap, etor) and these were my losses when it kept dipping instead of any recovering. It’s my personal trading style monitoring 40+ stocks at once since I don’t long term hold active trades, eg. If $HIMS went up 8% when I bought it at $50 on the 14% drop, I’d take profit. And it usually works the best if I do a ton of stocks concurrently, otherwise the waiting period would be too long just waiting for one stock swing back like Reddit. I’ve found success with it personally so I just keep doing it.
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警示短期期权风险，看好AMZN隐含波动率回归潜力。
这就是为什么人们不应该做短期期权！（我看到很多WSB帖子讨论$TSM的周权，为了财报）。方向是对的，但像这样的随机事件会抹平看涨期权。不过，我认为$AMZN看起来最具吸引力，主要是因为隐含波动率（IV）回归的潜力，我们看看市场能否保持开放。
英文原文
This is why people shouldn’t do short term options! (I saw a lot of WSB posts about $TSM weeklies for earnings). It’s correct directionally but random events like this happen to wipe out calls. But yeah I think $AMZN looks the most tempting just cause of IV return potential, we’ll see what holds market open.
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建议无视噪音，关注基本面，利用散户恐慌期积累AI算力龙头筹码。
谢谢，只是目前 Mag7 对 AI 算力（数据中心、电力）的需求出现了绝对激增，而许多此类公司的机构持股比例极低（例如 $NBIS 为 38%，而通常理想区间为 60-75%）。散户可能因错误原因（例如看到 $AMSL 建厂放缓就抛售，尽管 AMSL 正在扩建晶圆厂，却无视 $TSM 今日公布的远期营收/利润率激增）或受特定地区银行冲击影响，将 $MSFT 或 $GOOGL 的未来基础设施资产恐慌性抛售给机构。如果普通人不理解宏观，这类噪音有助于对冲基金在不大幅推高价格的情况下积累筹码。最好关注基本面+增长是否完好（确实完好，且我们此前低估了需求），并忽略如 ORCL 新闻或短期宏观冲击等看空报道。
英文原文
Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%). Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much. It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.
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通过分仓隔离长期持仓与短线交易，避免冲动操作。
@ManglaniAkshay @StockMarketNerd 不，我只是在不同的券商开设不同的账户，这样我就不会受诱惑去对我长期持有的头寸进行波段交易(swing trade)。
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @StockMarketNerd nah I just open different accounts across brokerages so I'm not tempted to swing trade my long term holdings.
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解释IPO后30天禁售期及低流通盘导致的股价波动现象。
@itsthesquonky 关于股票，IPO后30天内不能赎回认股权证(warrants)，且认股权证定价通常低于正股（预期更多流通盘(float)会导致股价下跌）。 低流通盘股票在前30天会出现一些疯狂现象，比如Webull从$10涨到$82。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky Shares, you can't redeem warrants for 30 days after IPO and warrants get priced under shares a lot of times (with the expectation of more float causing price drops) Some crazy things happen in the first 30 days with low float like Webull going up from $10 to $82.
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不建议重仓高风险SPAC IPO，但可少量配置以博取风险收益。
@foogleman1234 是的，我确实不建议将投资组合的很大一部分配置给高风险的特殊目的收购公司(Special Purpose Acquisition Company, SPAC)首次公开募股(IPO)。 但少量配置也无妨，因为风险收益比(Risk-Reward)确实存在。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 Yeah I wouldn't recommend allocating large percentage of portfolios to a high-risk SPAC IPO for sure. But a tiny allocation doesn't hurt since risk-reward is definitely there.
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博主分享利用AI辅助研究，并对比不同板块的风险收益特征。
非常赞同，关键矿物确实很复杂。当我买入像 $MP 这类标的时，我通常会使用 ChatGPT 深度研究来帮助我更好地理解风险收益权衡。但当我买入随机的锂电池小盘股并发帖讨论时，我承认我缺乏领域知识。但就像你关于 $IREN 的 Neocloud 帖子一样，通常像 AI 基础设施建设（如 $CRWV）或量子计算（如 $IONQ）这样热门的领域会带动整个板块上涨。所以风险收益有时是值得的，但我不建议效仿我的做法，也不会对此投入过多的投资组合权重。而在数据中心基础设施建设等方面，风险收益比要好得多，因为只要有执行力，几乎可以确定会有收入，且有 Mag7 公司作为后盾。
英文原文
Heavily agree, critical minerals are really complex. When I buy stuff like $MP I usually use ChatGPT deep research to help me understand risk-reward tradeoffs better. But when I buy random lithium battery small caps and post about it I admit I don’t have domain knowledge. But like your Neocloud post about $IREN usually a popular domain like AI buildout with $CRWV or something like Quantum with $IONQ will uplift an entire sector anyway. So risk-reward is sometimes worth it but I wouldn’t follow what I do and wouldn’t put much portfolio weighting into it either. And it’s a much better risk-reward on stuff like data center buildout since it’s almost for sure revenue based on execution with mag7 backstopping companies.
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建议期权交易避免短期到期合约，12月后合约更稳妥。
@LibertadEterno 12月/1月的期权可能没问题，11月的我不太确定……如果你做期权交易，我不太推荐短期到期的合约。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Dec/Jan options are likely fine, not sure about November... Don't really recommend short term expires if you're doing options.
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建议避免在流动性低的时段交易WLAC。
@capybara_830 哦，我已经加仓了，这只是最初的建仓。我不建议在盘后、隔夜或盘前购买像 $WLAC 这样的股票，因为流动性低且买卖价差大。
英文原文
@capybara_830 Oh I already added more, this was just the initial buy. I don't recommend buying stuff like $WLAC after hours, overnight, or premarket due to low liquidity and high spread.
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管理他人组合时采用中长期策略并每月动态调整。
@Shehryr_Mdassir 如果我要管理别人的投资组合，这更多是中长期的策略，但我会根据新信息每月进行调整。
英文原文
@Shehryr_Mdassir Oh this is more mid-long term if I were to manage someone else's portfolio, but I would adjust it monthly based on new information.
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利用高隐含波动率下的备兑看涨期权降低持仓成本。
@soulbiri1 即使在这种回调中，如果随机出现波动率(VIX)飙升，由于隐含波动率(IV)极高，你可以通过备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)大幅降低平均成本。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 You can lower cost average a lot even on this dip with covered calls if there’s a random V since IV is extremely high.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
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@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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根据期权策略风险不同，建议调整其在投资组合中的配置比例。
@SimionAdvisory @rocket5010 说实话，这取决于具体情况。如果你像南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）那样，使用深度实值（Deep ITM）期权搭配长期期权（LEAPS）来获取略高的杠杆且无需支付保证金利息，那么这部分可以占据你投资组合的大多数。但如果你做的是风险较高的虚值（OTM）期权且3个月内到期，那么比例可能不会超过10-20%。
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@SimionAdvisory @rocket5010 Honestly depends. If you're doing way ITM options with leaps like Nancy Pelosi for slightly higher leverage without margin interest, it can be majority of your port. If you're doing risky OTM options that expire in 3 months, then probably wouldn't do more than 10-20%.
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博主分享其关于期权策略及催化剂交易的研究笔记索引。
@JakeWoods143114 我通常尝试在不同的帖子中撰写我学到的不同内容，例如 在波段交易中卖出看跌期权（Writing puts on swing trades） https://t.co/F2jdDsk3Sf 备兑看涨期权（Covered Calls） https://t.co/GIvzRgZtHb 催化剂+突破（Catalysts + Breakouts） https://t.co/ozo2YzL5vy
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@JakeWoods143114 I usually try and write different things I've learned in different posts like Writing puts on swing trades https://t.co/F2jdDsk3Sf Covered Calls https://t.co/GIvzRgZtHb Catalysts + Breakotus https://t.co/ozo2YzL5vy
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博主说明自身在AI、半导体及加密领域的专业背景，明确能力圈范围。
@MqwantyMqwanty 金融科技(Fintech)、加密货币(Crypto)、人工智能(AI)。 我在加密货币、半导体以及人工智能领域（例如软件、科技等相关领域）拥有一些专利/论文，因此我对这些领域有足够的了解，可以给出方向性的观点。 至于生物技术、建筑、房地产、农业等之外的领域，我就不太了解了。
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@MqwantyMqwanty Fintech, Crypto, AI. I have some patents/papers in crypto, semiconductors, + AI space so related areas (eg. software, tech) I know enough to give directional opinions. Stuff outside like biotech, construction, real estate, agriculture, etc. I wouldn't know well.
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不盲从权威，需详查目标价背后的逻辑与计算。
@dubiousnoob @tr90605549 我不是那种盲目追随领域权威的人，我想了解更多关于思维过程+数值计算的细节，以便对目标价格(price targets)感到安心。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob @tr90605549 I’m not the type of person to blindly follow domain authority, I’d like to learn more details on the thought process + numerical calculations to have a peace of mind about price targets
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作者分享交易策略：低IV或暴跌时做期权，短线多股现货交易。
@DappSpecialist 我基本上什么都做，但主要只在隐含波动率(IV) <32 或市场暴跌时才接触期权。通常我会在短时间内同时交易多只股票的现货，而不是持有1年以上。
英文原文
@DappSpecialist I kind of do everything, but mainly touch options only if IV <32 or on doom drops. Normally I do shares on many different stocks at once in short timeframes rather than holding 1Y+.