供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1315 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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澄清AI芯片出口管制仅为提案，驳斥误报引发的供应链恐慌。
“美国正考虑要求全球 $NVDA、$AMD AI 芯片销售需获许可” 市场正对特朗普政府拟对英伟达实施类似 $AXTI 出口管制待遇的消息做出剧烈反应。 关键词：提案 | 草案。 该提案原样通过的可能性几乎为零。 随着消息报道，科技公司很可能正在游说政府。 文章中提到： 特朗普政府将提出法规，要求全球 AI 芯片出货需经美国批准。 该法案的结果将毫无理由地造成 AI 贸易瓶颈，并损害特朗普最看重的指标：美国股市。 特朗普曾以废除拜登时代的 AI 扩散规则而闻名： “包括英伟达、微软和甲骨文在内的主要美国科技公司曾游说反对该规则，认为其可能导致数十亿美元收入损失，并促使合作伙伴转向中国技术。” 因此，新政策的实施将与其议程背道而驰。 不幸的是，其他文章和新闻将其改写为迫在眉睫的出口管制，而非提案。 耸人听闻/虚假的标题报道引发了从 $TSM、$NVDA 到 $MU 的整个供应链今日的大幅抛售。 然而，人们确实有权对潜在影响感到担忧。
英文原文
“US Mulls Requiring Permits for Global $NVDA, $AMD AI Chip Sales” Markets are reacting violently to news of the Trump administration was thinking about giving Nvidia the $AXTI export control treatment. Keyword: Proposal | Draft. There is an almost zero chance it passes as is. Tech companies are likely lobbying the administration as this gets reported. In the article: The Trump administration will propose regulations that would require American approval for AI chip shipments worldwide. The result of this bill would bottleneck the AI trade for no reason and harm Trump’s favorite metric: the US stock market. Trump was known for rescinding the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule: “Major U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle, lobbied against the rule, arguing it could cost them billions in revenue and push partners towards Chinese technology.” So a new policy getting enacted, would be counterintuitive to his agenda. Unfortunately other articles + news on elsewhere reworded this as an imminent export control, rather than a proposal. Sensational / false headline reporting triggered a massive selloff of the entire supply chain from $TSM, $NVDA, to $MU today. However, people do have a right to be worried about the implications.
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AI结构性改变需求，超大规模云服务商瓶颈下不会像亚马逊当年那样取消订单。
人们常将此次情况与多年前 $AMZN 因供过于需而取消订单引发的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)相提并论。 人工智能在结构上改变了对许多前“大宗商品”的需求，包括GPU、内存，以及现在的光模块/激光器。 鉴于超大规模云服务商目前面临的瓶颈，我认为这次不会出现取消订单的情况。
英文原文
People often make comparisons to the $AMZN PTSD pulling orders many years ago when there was an oversupply. AI structurally changed demand for a lot of former“commodities” from the GPUs, memory, and now optical transceivers/lasers. Don’t think there will be an order pull this time around given how bottlenecked hyperscalers are
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对比 IREN 高稀释融资与 AAOI 高效产能扩张。
@pappu_yar11820 X 上的散户似乎都在买入 $IREN，其以 34 亿美元云 ARR 换取 60 亿美元的稀释性融资。反观 $AAOI，仅凭 2.5 亿美元 ATM 额度即可将德州激光产能翻三倍，并实现超大规模云厂商积压订单的 3.78 亿美元/月爬坡。
英文原文
@pappu_yar11820 Every retail on X seems to be buying $IREN that is diluting $6B for $3.4B cloud ARR. Then you have $AAOI with a tiny $250M ATM to triple laser capacity in Texas and hit the $378/M ramp that is backlogged by hyperscalers.
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KOSPI反弹，AI基建未因伊朗战事停摆，属恐慌性抛售。
韩国KOSPI指数现已回升：11.6%。所有此前通过图表技术分析(TA)预测$EWY下跌的韩国看空者，现在突然删除了所有唱衰帖子。SK海力士上涨：15.78%；三星上涨：14.4%。事实证明，伊朗战争并不会随机叫停AI基础设施建设。
英文原文
The KOSPI South Korean index is now back up: 11.6% All the South Korean chart TA'ers calling for an $EWY drop are now suddenly deleting all their doomposts. SK Hynix up: 15.78% Samsung up: 14.4% Turns out a War in Iran does not randomly halt the AI buildout. https://t.co/br7rF5HCZK
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韩国半导体供应链多元化化解地缘风险，$EWY 因基本面重估上涨。
$EWY 在这篇关于液化天然气(LNG)进口的帖子后从 $120 涨到 $134。我想知道市场是否终于意识到，伊朗的冲突并不会导致韩国半导体产业突然停摆？话虽如此，现在下结论还为时过早。但吸取的教训是，恐惧掩盖了任何基本面。
英文原文
$120 -> $134 on $EWY after this LNG import post. I wonder if markets finally realized that the Korean semis won’t suddenly stop because there’s conflict in Iran? That being said it’s still a little early to call anything. But lesson learned is that fear overshadows any fundamentals.
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CPO技术终将落地，但谷歌暂不采用。
@Maverick5m8 不，共封装光学(CPO)终将实现。只是 $GOOGL（许多TPU资本支出交易都依赖它）刚刚决定说不。
英文原文
@Maverick5m8 No, CPO is going to happen. Just $GOOGL (which a lot of the TPU capex trade relies on) just decided to say nah
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CPO技术前景广阔，NVDA积极布局，AVGO虽失META但仍有其他大客户。
@JK30998937 不，共封装光学(CPO)无论如何都是大势所趋，只是目前情绪略微偏空。$NVDA 正在积极追求这一技术，即使 $GOOGL 没有。这相当于 $META 放弃其专用集成电路(ASIC)项目，且 $AVGO 可能失去一个客户。但博通(Broadcom)仍拥有谷歌和其他超大规模云服务商。
英文原文
@JK30998937 Nah, CPO is up and coming anyway it's just slightly bearish. $NVDA is actively pursuing it even if $GOOGL doesn't. It's the equivalent of $META dropping its ASIC program and $AVGO possibly losing a customer. But Broadcom still has Google and other hyperscalers.
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$GOOGL 拒绝采用共封装光学(CPO) 对整个可插拔光模块生态系统而言是巨大的结构性利好。 大多数人忽略了今日 Needham 分析师关于 $LITE 上调目标价至 $850 的研报中的这一点： 主要受益者：$AAOI、$FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、光收发器公司。 次要受益者（外延晶圆）：$IQE、Landmark 第三级受益者（衬底）：$AXTI、住友( Sumitomo) 降级（CPO）：Soitec 引用：“LITE 看到了一个意外的额外利好，其主要的收发器模块客户（Google）目前在其 TPU 架构中暂无采用 CPO 的计划。”
英文原文
$GOOGL rejecting CPO is a massive structural win for the entire pluggable optics ecosystem. Most people missed this in the Needham analyst note on the $LITE $850 PT upgrade today: Large beneficiaries: $AAOI, $FN, Innolight, transceiver companies. Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE, Landmark Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI, Sumitomo Downgrade (CPO): Soitec Quote: "LITE sees an unexpected bonus that its primary transceiver module customer (Google) currently has no plans to adopt CPO in its TPU architecture from what we have seen."
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指出针对SK海力士/三星的供应链中断担忧被夸大。
美国/澳大利亚和印尼/马来西亚也可以增加对韩国的出口。我相信确实存在你提到的替代方案。但最大的催化剂之一是像 $LNG 这样的美国出口商。然而，数据的核心观点是，针对 SK 海力士/三星的许多中断/定价担忧被夸大了。
英文原文
US/Australia and Indonesia/Malaysia can also up their exports to SK. I’m sure there’s alternatives like you mentioned. But one of the biggest catalyst was for US exporters like $LNG. However point of the data was that lot of disruption/pricing fears are overblown to SK Hynix/Samsung
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韩国LNG进口多元化且多为长协，能源成本可转嫁，基本面未受地缘政治实质影响。
如果霍尔木兹海峡(Hormuz)关闭，韩国80%的液化天然气(LNG)进口似乎不受影响。$EWY 中的SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星自2022年以来已实现高度多元化。人们引用数据称，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的LNG中约59%流向四个亚洲国家：韩国、日本、中国和印度。这看起来是个吓人的数字，但这只是他们总进口量的一小部分。大约五分之四的进口已通过非霍尔木兹路线到达：澳大利亚(24.6%)、美国(12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚(~20%)和俄罗斯/萨哈林(~4.6%)。此外，2024年约82%的进口为长期合同，而非现货。因此，任何因价格飙升导致的成本上涨将得到很大程度的缓冲。即使成本上升，也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。看来韩国从2022年的教训中吸取了经验，实现了来源多元化并增加了长期定价合同。
英文原文
If the Hormuz were closed, it looks like 80% of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. And looks like $EWY SK Hynix and Samsung are largely diversified since 2022. People are quoting majority of all LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (~59%) goes to just four Asian countries: South Korea, Japan, China, and India. Looks like a scary number, but that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Roughly four-fifths of imports already arrive via Hormuz-free routes: Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot. So any hiked rates for new price hikes would be largely insulated. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. Looks like South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources + added long term pricing contracts.
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反驳KOSPI恐慌，指出SK海力士基本面强劲，当前为情绪性去杠杆。
感觉大家都在唱衰韩国综合指数(KOSPI)，说： > “看图表，它不可能一直这样涨！” > 存储芯片是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 已收到3年预购订单） > $EWY 基本上就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，并不代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾加权指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨一样。 > 存储需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争而消失，但成本确实会变高。 > 原油/LNG带来的能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，而不是被运营支出(opex)吸收。 这看起来更像是恐慌性抛售和去杠杆（3倍和10倍ETF今天可能已被清零），而非基本面恶化（虽有轻微利空，但不足以导致-30%跌幅）。 SK海力士期货现在交易在3000亿-4000亿美元市值区间。 如果微软(MS)和更新的分析师预测稍微准确一点，SK海力士的营业利润例如约为3000亿美元。 如果存储价格下跌，到2028年他们将拥有过多的现金作为缓冲。（甚至还没考虑需求变得结构性强劲）。 这看起来像是另一次DeepSeek-英伟达式的恐慌性抛售，尤其是最近nand/dram价格再次上涨。更多是关于择时抄底的问题。 在这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的头条新闻抛售更重要。
英文原文
Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying: > “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!” > Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders ) > $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy > Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up. > Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive. > Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex. It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%). SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B. They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural). Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom. It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.
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AI板块短期抛售或修复，真正崩盘风险源于内存需求降及云厂商缩减资本开支。
是的，确实出现了相当程度的抛售，但我预计这些股票最终会被买回。然而，我认为导致真正崩盘的主要原因将是：结构性内存需求下降；超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）缩减资本支出（Capex）预期。而非那些最终转嫁给超大规模云厂商的运营支出（Opex）成本增加。
英文原文
Yep, there's quite a bit selloff, but I do expect it to get bought back in due time. However I see the main reason for an actual crash would be: > Structural memory demand decreasing > Hyperscalers projecting less capex. Not increased opex costs that end up getting passed onto hyperscalers.
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成本将转嫁云厂商，内存价格看涨，基本面主导市场。
主要观点是市场正在定价成本上升（如原油、LNG），但可能忽略了这些成本会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，因为他们正在争夺产能分配。当然，情况是多方面的，涉及可能的货币贬值、获利了结以及去杠杆。但最终，自由现金流(FCF)、盈利等基本面才是最重要的。我不认为SK海力士和三星不会转嫁成本并进一步推高内存价格。内存需求也不像2022年那样在消费/笔记本领域出现下滑。
英文原文
The main thing was that markets were pricing increased costs eg. crude, LNG, but they're probably missing that it would just get passed onto hyperscalers as they battle for allocation. But of course it's multifaceted, with possible currency devaluation, profit taking, then deleveraging. But in the end fundamentals regarding FCF, earnings, and others are what matters most. And I don't see a world where SK Hynix, Samsung don't pass on costs and hike memory costs more. Memory demand is also not on a downturn like 2022 for consumer/laptop segments.
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光子学成AI新范式，机构抢配上游瓶颈，供应链迎重估。
两大光子学外延片晶圆厂： - $IQE（$LITE 的供应商）本周上涨 62.53% - Landmark 本周上涨 23.95%。 它们都正处于强劲上涨势头中。 两者今天迄今均上涨 7-9%。 市场可能正在定价由 $AAOI 财报发出的光收发器繁荣信号，以及 Nvidia 对 Coherent 和 Lumentum 的投资。 光子学是人工智能在可预见的未来中的新范式转变，机构投资者正积极重新配置到光子学供应链的上游瓶颈环节。 市场通常具有前瞻性，因此如果像 $AAOI 这样的公司预测一年后的年化经常性收入(ARR) 为 45 亿美元，那么 AAOI 及其整个供应链现在就会开始重新定价。
英文原文
The two largest photonics epiwafer fabs - $IQE ( $LITE supplier) is up 62.53% this week - Landmark is up 23.95% this week. And they’re both on a tear. Both are up 7-9% today so far. Markets are probably pricing in the optical transceiver boom signaled from $AAOI earnings and Nvidia’s investment into Coherent and Lumentum. Photonics is a new paradigm shift for AI for the foreseeable future and institutions are aggressively repositioning into upstream bottlenecks in the photonics supply chains. Markets are typically forward looking, so if companies like $AAOI project $4.5B ARR a year from now, then AAOI along with the entire supply chain will start to get repriced in now.
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光子学成AI新范式，机构抢跑推升相关股价。
光子学是AI的新架构范式。未来几年做多。 $NVDA 前几天刚投资40亿美元帮助 $COHR 和 $LITE 扩大规模，且共封装光学(CPO)等技术预计将在2028年放量。 这就是为什么所有光子学股票每天上涨10%，因为机构正在抢跑并重新配置仓位。
英文原文
Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI. Go long for next few years. $NVDA basically just invested $4B the other day to help $COHR and $LITE scale up and things like cpo are expected to ramp in 2028. This is why all the photonics stocks are going up 10% a day because institutions are frontrunning and repositioning.
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通过深挖上游供应链瓶颈及财务验证寻找投资机会
这只是在尽可能上游寻找瓶颈环节。几个月前我发现 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 物料清单(BOM)的重要组成部分时，它被认为非常早期。自那以来它已经翻倍。但大多数人止步于此，没有尝试寻找谁为 Lite 提供外延晶圆(epiwafers)？或者谁提供磷化铟(InP)衬底？其中很多是关系映射中的1+1，然后了解财务状况以判断尽管处于供应链瓶颈，它是否仍是一个真正的好多头标的。
英文原文
It’s just bottleneck hunting as upstream as you can go. Even $LITE was considered really early few months ago when I found out it was a large part of $GOOGL TPU BOM. Since then it’s already doubled. But most people stop there and then don’t try and find who supplies epiwafers for lite? Or who supplies the InP substrates? Lot of it is 1+1 in relational mapping, then knowing financials to see if it’s an actual good long despite being part of a supply chain chokepoint
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NVDA注资Lumentum，上游AXTI/IQE或成瓶颈。
在$NVDA达成$20亿交易后，所有人都在$540亿市值下抢购$LITE。等他们发现谁是Lumentum的上游瓶颈及供应商时再买吧。像$AXTI和可能的$IQE这样的公司可能还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal. Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are. Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go. https://t.co/Hep3S6174M
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
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台湾光子学股票集体大涨，疑似机构提前获知消息。
@galaxymaker1989 @ryansfinance 是的，我对 $IQE 也有同样的想法。但奇怪的是，台湾的光子学(Photonics)股票全都大涨了10%以上，比如 Landmark？我猜测是一些机构可能提前泄露了消息。
英文原文
@galaxymaker1989 @ryansfinance Yeah I was thinking the same for $IQE. But it was really weird photonics stocks in Taiwan all rallied 10%+ like Landmark? My guess is some institutions maybe got the news leaked early.
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NVDA投资LITE带动其供应商IQE股价大涨28%
@ryansfinance 所以 $NVDA 向 $LITE 投资 20 亿美元，$IQE 可能是最大的受益者，因为作为其外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂，他们是 $LITE 的主要供应商。我一直在想为什么 IQE 今天涨了 28%……这大概就是原因。
英文原文
@ryansfinance So $NVDA investing $2B into $LITE is probably the biggest beneficiary for $IQE since they're a massive $LITE supplier as their epiwafer foundry. I was wondering why IQE was up 28% today... This was probably the reason
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光子学供应链相关个股近期走势强劲，全线上涨。
@anhecdote 随时欢迎！是的，我之前提到的整个光子学(Photonics)供应链，包括 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$IQE 和 $AAOI，走势都是一条直线向上的绿色阳线。
英文原文
@anhecdote Anytime! Yeah the entire photonics supply chain that I've mentioned from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $IQE, and $AAOI has been a straight green line up.
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英伟达投资相干光，利好光子学供应链及相干光。
$NVDA 刚刚向 $COHR 投资 20 亿美元，用于先进激光器和光网络产品。这对 $AXTI（衬底供应商）、$AAOI 等其他光网络公司以及整个光子学供应链构成了极其强劲的利好。而最大的直接受益者无疑是 $COHR。
英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion into $COHR for advanced laser and optical networking products. This is an extremely bullish tailwind for $AXTI (substrate provider), other optical networking companies like $AAOI, and the entire photonics supply chain. And most of all the direct beneficiary is $COHR.
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英伟达投资Lumentum，利好光子学供应链及上游供应商。
$NVDA 刚刚投资 20 亿美元支持 Lumentum 的研发及美国新建晶圆厂。这对 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI、$IQE 等光子学股票是巨大的顺风。$IQE 今日上涨 28% 更合理了，因为它是 $LITE 的已知供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。该合作聚焦硅光子学、光互连及封装集成，惠及整个光子学供应链。
英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
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澄清超大规模云厂商订单无取消风险，强调美国本土供应链优势及光子学瓶颈。
超大规模云服务商提前一年下满所有产能的订单，并不意味着有取消风险？我不确定你从哪得出这个结论。 什么20%的利润率上限？他们提到的是40%。 此外，它们拥有“美国制造”的供应链，这很罕见，$LITE 和 $COHR 的组装都在亚洲进行。 但如果人们因多年前 $AMZN 取消订单而患有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，那也能理解。但这次应该不同，因为光子学(Photonics)是已知的瓶颈，且需求超过供应。
英文原文
Three to four hyperscaler orders for all the capacity they can make a year out doesn’t mean risk of cancellation? Not sure where you’re getting that from. What 20% margin ceiling? They cited 40%. Also they’re Made in America supply chains which is rare, $LITE and $COHR do assembly in Asia. But makes sense of people have ptsd from $AMZN order cancellation many years ago. But this time should be different since photonics is a known bottleneck and demand outstrips supply
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光子学板块股票正经历剧烈重新定价。
@LIWEILIU476419 所有光子学(Photonics)板块股票正在经历剧烈的重新定价。 https://t.co/BBMsC9yQI8
英文原文
@LIWEILIU476419 Wild repricing event for all photonics sector stocks. https://t.co/BBMsC9yQI8
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伊朗战争或消除以色列及关联股的生存折价，需进一步研究。
我也没料到这一点。也许伊朗战争的后果消除了相关股票如 $NBIS 以及以色列股票如 $ETOR 至 $VLN 的“生存折价因子”（existential discount factor）？ 或者情况是多方面的，因为国防在以色列股市中占很大权重。 鉴于这对我来说是新领域，仍在做更多研究。
英文原文
I was not expecting this as well. Maybe the implications of the Iran war removes Israel’s existential discount factor on correlated stocks like $NBIS and Israeli ones like $ETOR to $VLN? Or its multifaceted since defense makes up a large weighting of the Israel stock exchange. Still doing more research since this is new to me.
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三星与海力士大幅上调DRAM价格，NAND涨500%，内存需求强劲。
据 Digitimes 今日报道，三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)大幅上调 DRAM 价格。 部分消息源自本周《首尔经济日报》的报道，其中指出： “客户可能需要接受比之前合同价格高出一倍以上的价格，才能获得 DRAM 配额”。 DRAM 价格的急剧上涨伴随着 NAND 价格的上涨，今日“群联(Phison)因 NAND 价格上涨 500% 而转向预付款模式”。 内存需求存在一个无情的黑洞。
英文原文
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly sharp DRAM price increases from Digitimes today. Part of source was the Seoul Economic Daily report this week that stated: “Customers may need to accept prices more than double their previous contract rates to receive DRAM allocations”. The sharp DRAM price hikes come with NAND price hikes as “Phison shifts to prepayments as NAND prices hike 500%” today. There is a relentless black hole on memory demand.
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Soitec对CPO至关重要，虽早但不可或缺
@beauty_oe 我觉得索伊特克（Soitec）现在投资还稍微有点早。所以我原本打算明年再投资。不过，对于预计在2028年左右普及的共封装光学(CPO)来说，它似乎将成为一个巨大的瓶颈（不可或缺的存在）！
英文原文
@beauty_oe ソイテック（Soitec）はまだ少し早すぎる気がします。なので、投資は来年にしようと思っていました。でも、2028年頃に普及するCPO（共同パッケージ光技術）にとっては、大きなボトルネック（不可欠な存在）になりそうですね！
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Soitec是CPO关键瓶颈，预计2028年随CPO拐点迎来估值重估。
Soitec ($SLOIF) 是 $AXTI 在硅光子学领域的垄断性镜像标的。 基本上，它与共封装光学(CPO) 直接绑定，其拐点预计在 2027 年底至 2028 年。 对于 800G/1.6T 和 CPO 而言，没有 $AXTI 和 Soitec 很难实现： AXT 提供磷化铟(InP) Soitec 提供光子学绝缘体上硅(Photonics-SOI) 衬底。具有功能性垄断地位。 （Shin Etsu 在其授权下运营）->（英特尔、格芯、Tower） 但预计当 CPO 在 2028 年初触及拐点时，它们的估值将大幅重估。 然而，与 $IQE 类似，大量传统业务拖累影响着其股价。 对于 $AXTI，供应挤压正在发生。 对于 Soitec，可能早了 6 个月或一年，但不知道市场何时开始抢跑。 但这只是将其作为一个未来的瓶颈环节提出。
英文原文
Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is the monopoly silicon photonics mirror to $AXTI. Basically it’s directly tethered to CPO and its inflection point late 2027-2028 For 800g/1.6T and CPO, hard to really do it without $AXTI and Soitec: AXT for InP Soitec for photonics-soi substrates. Functional monopoly (Shin Etsy operates under their license) -> (Intel, Global Foundaties, Tower) But expect them to get rerated extremely hard early 2028 when CPO hits the inflection point. However similar to $IQE, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting their stock price. For $AXTI the supply squeeze is happening now. For Soitec might be 6 months or a year too early but don’t know when markets start frontrunning it. But just putting it out there as a future bottleneck.
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从半导体瓶颈向运行瓶颈的板块轮动逻辑合理。
@zephyr_z9 从半导体瓶颈(SeMI bottlenecks)板块轮动至运行瓶颈(Running bottlenecks)板块是合理的。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Rotation from semi bottlenecks into running bottlenecks makes sense