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解释IPO后30天禁售期及低流通盘导致的股价波动现象。
@itsthesquonky 关于股票，IPO后30天内不能赎回认股权证(warrants)，且认股权证定价通常低于正股（预期更多流通盘(float)会导致股价下跌）。 低流通盘股票在前30天会出现一些疯狂现象，比如Webull从$10涨到$82。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky Shares, you can't redeem warrants for 30 days after IPO and warrants get priced under shares a lot of times (with the expectation of more float causing price drops) Some crazy things happen in the first 30 days with low float like Webull going up from $10 to $82.
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不建议重仓高风险SPAC IPO，但可少量配置以博取风险收益。
@foogleman1234 是的，我确实不建议将投资组合的很大一部分配置给高风险的特殊目的收购公司(Special Purpose Acquisition Company, SPAC)首次公开募股(IPO)。 但少量配置也无妨，因为风险收益比(Risk-Reward)确实存在。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 Yeah I wouldn't recommend allocating large percentage of portfolios to a high-risk SPAC IPO for sure. But a tiny allocation doesn't hurt since risk-reward is definitely there.
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提及一家鲜为人知的SPAC IPO，指出早期买入风险较高。
@soulbiri1 是的，这是一家几乎无人知晓的SPAC IPO（特殊目的收购公司首次公开募股）！（WSB历史上仅有3次提及）。 处于极早期阶段，但显然在起步阶段买入风险更大。 https://t.co/kpmvY6IHu0
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yep, it's an SPAC IPO that almost nobody knows about yet! (there's only 3 mentions on WSB in history). Extremely early on, but obviously a lot more risk buying at the start. https://t.co/kpmvY6IHu0
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质疑Boost财务数据准确性，分析其与Fluidstack合作及获Mag7客户潜力。
Boost 此前预测其年度经常性收入(ARR)为2.75亿美元，毛利率75%，IPO估值6亿美元。我不认为那个790万美元的数字是准确的。此外，Fluidstack 1.8亿美元的 ARR 很可能是一个严重滞后的快照，因为那是2024年的数据。目前尚不清楚他们与 Fluidstack 的合作模式，但鉴于 $CIFR 和 $WULF 正是通过这种方式获得合同，他们有望获得 $GOOGL 等 Mag7 客户的业务。
英文原文
Boost was projecting ARR of $275M forward revenue, 75% gross margin, IPO at $600m valuation. Don't think that $7.9m number was accurate. Also Fluidstack's ARR at $180m is likely a way lagging snapshot since that was 2024. Not too clear how they work with Fluidstack yet, there's potential for Mag7 clients like $GOOGL since that's how $CIFR and $WULF got the contracts.
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提醒新手注意 $WLAC 盘前流动性风险，并分析其作为 Neocloud 的高增长潜力。
给新手的 $WLAC 提示： 尽量避免在盘后/盘前买入这类低流通盘的小市值股票，因为流动性极低且买卖价差（Bid-Ask Spread）很大（如果非要买，请挂限价单）。 例如，目前的买价是 $13.8，卖价是 $15.08，如果你不挂限价单而是直接市价买入，你会立即亏损 9.28%。 此外，与正常交易时段相比，流动性匮乏导致价格波动被放大，次日可能会回归正常。 _ 背景信息：$WLAC 是一家 SPAC IPO，将转换为 Boost，估值约 6 亿美元。 Boost 是一家 Neocloud（新型云服务商），与 $WULF / $CIFR 最相似，因为它们都与 Fluidstack 合作，而 Fluidstack 由 $GOOGL 支持。 其优势在于已有 75%+ 的 EBITDA 毛利率，这非常棒，且营收同比增长 250%，估值较低。它将从近期的 Neocloud 热潮中大幅受益，并可能因获得一份 Mag7（七大科技巨头）合同而大幅重估。 可能在接下来两个月内任何时间 IPO，这只是个等待游戏。
英文原文
Just a heads up about $WLAC to newcomers: Try not to buy these types of low-float small MC stocks after-hours/pre-market due to really low liquidity + high spread (and if you do, place limit orders). Bid-Ask is $13.8, Sell $15.08 right now as an example, so you're losing 9.28% immediately if you don't limit buy a stock and just place a 100x buy order. There's also a lack of liquidity compared to normal market hours so a lot of price movements are inflated + could go back to normal the next day. _ For context, $WLAC is an SPAC IPO that converts into Boost ~$600m valuation. Boost is a Neocloud most similar to $WULF / $CIFR in that they work with Fluidstack, which is backstopped by $GOOGL. The benefit was that they already have 75%+ EBITDA gross margin, which is incredibly great and are 250% rev y/y + low valuation. It should benefit a lot from the Neocloud run recently + could re-rate largely with one mag7 contract. Could IPO anytime in the next two months, it's just a waiting game.
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因行情垂直飙升，停止卖CIFR看涨期权并买入NBIS。
@pepemoonboy 本周我停止了对 $CIFR 卖出看涨期权(CC) 以买入 $NBIS，因为所有走势都呈垂直飙升态势。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I stopped selling CC's this week for $CIFR to $NBIS because everything is just going vertical.
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看好RKLB长期潜力，并推荐NBIS等替代标的。
@paramdan42454 只要基本面良好，股票在长期内总是会上涨的。 我认为 $RKLB 总有一天会像 SpaceX 一样达到 3500 亿美元的市场规模，而它现在才 300 亿美元。 如果你觉得自己错过了什么，也总有新的机会，比如 $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 Stonks always go higher over longer periods of time if they’re fundamentally good. I think $RKLB will go to $350B market cap one day like SpaceX and it’s still $30B now. There’s always new opportunities too if you feel like you missed something like $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC
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上调NBIS目标价至450美元，重申其他新云标的跑赢大盘评级。
随着泰勒·斯威夫特进入新云(NeoCloud)领域，即便GPT-5拥有10GW算力也找不到她持久的男友。 我将$NBIS的1年目标价上调至$450，并重申对其他标的的跑赢大盘(outperform)评级，原因是能源消耗无限。
英文原文
With Taylor Swift entering the Neocloud space, not even 10GW compute on GPT-5 can find her a lasting boyfriend. Raising my 1Y price target on $NBIS to $450 and reiterating outperform on the rest due to infinite energy consumption. $WLAC $CIFR $FLNC $IREN $TSM $AMD $BITF $WYFI $GLXY
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祝贺粉丝AI股56%收益，感叹近期波动剧烈不敢做空。
@Crypto_LogicD @Sandeman52 @babyfolio @sunxliao 恭喜！Neoclouds/AI最近的表现简直疯狂。 我甚至不敢在周期权上卖出CCs（Crypto Clouds, $CCCS）48%的虚值合约，因为像$CIFR或$IREN这样的股票现在一天就能涨22% lol。 不过，56%的回报率确实太惊人了！
英文原文
@Crypto_LogicD @Sandeman52 @babyfolio @sunxliao Congrats! Neoclouds/AI have been insane recently. I’m afraid to sell CCs at 48% away for weeklies on stuff like $CIFR or $IREN cause they go up in 22% a day now lol. But yeah 56% return is spectacular!
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对比FLNC与CIFR，建议分散配置避免过度集中于AI基建。
@woosla79 它们都很好且相关，说实话，如果比较 $FLNC 和 $CIFR，我不知道哪个涨得更快。同时持有两者以获取敞口是不错的，但不要过度集中于人工智能基础设施建设。
英文原文
@woosla79 They’re all really good and related, I don’t know what would go up faster if you compare $FLNC with $CIFR, tbh. Good to have exposure to both, but don’t be overly concentrated on AI buildout.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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博主分享利用AI辅助研究，并对比不同板块的风险收益特征。
非常赞同，关键矿物确实很复杂。当我买入像 $MP 这类标的时，我通常会使用 ChatGPT 深度研究来帮助我更好地理解风险收益权衡。但当我买入随机的锂电池小盘股并发帖讨论时，我承认我缺乏领域知识。但就像你关于 $IREN 的 Neocloud 帖子一样，通常像 AI 基础设施建设（如 $CRWV）或量子计算（如 $IONQ）这样热门的领域会带动整个板块上涨。所以风险收益有时是值得的，但我不建议效仿我的做法，也不会对此投入过多的投资组合权重。而在数据中心基础设施建设等方面，风险收益比要好得多，因为只要有执行力，几乎可以确定会有收入，且有 Mag7 公司作为后盾。
英文原文
Heavily agree, critical minerals are really complex. When I buy stuff like $MP I usually use ChatGPT deep research to help me understand risk-reward tradeoffs better. But when I buy random lithium battery small caps and post about it I admit I don’t have domain knowledge. But like your Neocloud post about $IREN usually a popular domain like AI buildout with $CRWV or something like Quantum with $IONQ will uplift an entire sector anyway. So risk-reward is sometimes worth it but I wouldn’t follow what I do and wouldn’t put much portfolio weighting into it either. And it’s a much better risk-reward on stuff like data center buildout since it’s almost for sure revenue based on execution with mag7 backstopping companies.
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博主因在WSB发帖被删且股价暴涨后遭封禁，故部分转移阵地。
@BTCVIX @yeah_dave @wallstreetbets 是的，我部分从 WSB 搬到这里，因为他们毫无理由地删除了我关于 $RKLB 的帖子两次，随后股价从 25 美元飙升至约 50 美元。在我重新发布相同内容后，他们还短暂封禁了我。
英文原文
@BTCVIX @yeah_dave @wallstreetbets Yeah I partially moved from WSB to here because they deleted my $RKLB post 2 times for no reason and then it shot up from $25 to like $50. They also banned me for a short time for posting the same thing again after they took it down.
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博主分享粉丝激增后的感受，表示虽更谨慎但仍乐见助人。
我也在短短一两周的时间里，粉丝数从 600 涨到了 6000+，所以我能共情你的感受。 但对我来说，粉丝变多让我更开心，因为我有潜力帮助更多人。 不过，我现在发表观点时确实变得更谨慎了，因为很多人会盲目跟风。 但我已经习惯了，毕竟我从 Reddit 转到 X 时就已经拥有相当规模的粉丝基础了。
英文原文
I went from 600 followers to 6k+ in the last week or two as well, so I can empathize with you. But for me at least, I'm happier with a larger following because I have the potential to help more people. I've definitely grown a bit more cautious though throwing out thoughts because a ton of people will blindly follow. But I'm used to it since I came from Reddit to X already with a decent sized following.
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解析$NBIS全栈优势及分部估值，给出$400目标价，对比$CIFR/$IREN。
我仍持有6位数的随机$CIFR期权，但信心不高。 简短总结我对$NBIS比其他公司更有信心的原因： -Nebius是全栈式(full-stack) -> 利润率更高（GPU利用率的软件编排，我们曾讨论过其重要性，以及从$ORCL建设失败中建立的护城河，还有$CRWV收购大量软件公司的原因）。 -分部估值(sum of parts)（例如FTX投资Anthropic、$HOOD，它们在几年内都上涨了1000%）即使利润率受压，也能比主营业务更持久，且$NBIS在Clickhouse等优秀公司中持有大量股份。 -更分散的客户群（也从$ORCL那里学到了其重要性）用于建设->使用，相比其他Neoclouds。 高置信度$400目标价，牛市情景下1年内$1000亿市值。 我也做多$IREN等，仅因其电力容量，或$CIFR作为“轻量版Nebius”在融资+Mag7客户方面，但这与我坚信一家公司vs认为其基本面将跑赢略有不同。
英文原文
I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction. Short TLDR on why I have high conviction in $NBIS compared to others is because -Nebius is full stack -> higher margin (software orchestration for GPU utilization, we why that's important and a moat from $ORCL build-out failure, and why $CRWV bought out a lot of software companies). -sum of parts (eg. FTX investing in Anthropic, $HOOD, where they all went up 1000% over a few years) can outlast a main business even if margins got compressed and $NBIS has a large stake in great companies like Clickhouse -more diversified client base (learned from $ORCL why that's important too) for buildout -> usage compared to other Neoclouds. High conviction $400 PT, $100B MC in 1Y for a bull case. I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity or $CIFR being Nebius-light in terms how they did fundraising + Mag7 client but it's slightly different me believing in a company vs. thinking they will outform from fundamentals.
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清仓GRRR进行税务亏损收割并转向WLAC，明日将复盘策略。
@soulbiri1 我清仓了 $GRRR 以进行年底税务亏损收割(Tax Loss Harvesting)，并转向 $WLAC，我明天会发布一篇关于我的亏损和策略的文章。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I sold out of $GRRR for EOY tax harvesting and pivoted to $WLAC, I’ll post a write up tomorrow around my losses and strategies.
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博主分享RKLB建仓与信念建立过程，并列举长期看好标的。
@paramdan42454 这是我在未来5年，或者2年时间框架内，信念最坚定的标的。 对于像 $RKLB（$16 - 我首次买入时，$28 - 我建立信念时）这样的股票。 关于 $HOOD、$TSM 的事情是随机列举的，这只是我在未来十年内最坚信的内容。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 It's what I have the most conviction in the next 5 years, or a 2 year time-frame. For stocks like $RKLB ($16 - When I first bought, $28 - When I developed conviction). Things from $HOOD, $TSM, are in random order, it's just what I believe in the most within the next decade.
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博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
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地缘缓和与加密清算引发大跌，视为逢低买入机会
局势缓和了。 路透社：“台湾称芯片行业未受显著影响” 特朗普：“别担心中国，一切都会好起来……习主席只是经历了一个糟糕的时刻。” 史上最大规模的加密货币清算事件 受冲击较小的股票下跌7% 逢低买入的机会 https://t.co/2sUEV7Dg8s
英文原文
And there’s the de-escalation Reuters: “Taiwan sees no significant impact on chip sector” Trump: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine… President Xi just had a bad moment.” Biggest crypto liquidation to date Stocks with little impact down 7% Dip buying opportunity https://t.co/2sUEV7Dg8s
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博主补充了RDDT、AMD、VIRT及锂稀土股的买入价位与逻辑。
@Hoona1203 因为 X 帖子字数限制，我没能列出所有股票代码。否则，$RDDT 在 192 美元是买入点，$AMD 在 210 美元是买入点，$VIRT 在 33 美元是买入点（与其说是作为单一多头头寸，不如说是作为良好的对冲工具，且我认为其被低估 + 将在财报中体现），锂-稀土股票也是买入标的，等等。
英文原文
@Hoona1203 I ran out of tickers because X post limits, otherwise $RDDT was a buy at $192, $AMD was a buy at $210, $VIRT is a buy at $33 (not so much as single long but as a good hedge and I believe this undervalued + will show up in earnings), lithium-rare earth stocks are a buy and so on.
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感谢互动，期待下周NBIS表现。
@pepemoonboy 谢谢，看起来局势有所缓和。也很期待下周的 $NBIS。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks, looks like there was some de-escalation. Excited for $NBIS too next week https://t.co/Vg3ZM4D5eW
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建议小仓位配置该锂电小盘股，基本面未变。
这是一家市值仅7500万美元的锂电池公司，请不要像那样全仓押注小盘股，除非你有极高的确信度，否则建议最多配置5-10%的仓位。好在承销商在1.25美元时买入，所以它可能只是受宏观问题波及。据我所知，基本面没有实质性变化。
英文原文
It’s small $75m market cap lithium battery company, pls don’t full port small caps like that maybe like 5-10% of your portfolio max unless you have high conviction. On the bright side underwriters bought at $1.25, so it was probably just caught in the macro issues. Nothing materially changed afik
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建议买入AMD，降级MU为持有，关注宏观风险。
对于像 $AMD 这样的半导体股，当其与 OpenAI 的 1000 亿美元合同开始放量时，是未来 1 年的买入时机。 有评论提到 $MU，由于相比 $TSM 等公司，$MU 在中国拥有大量的 DRAM/NAND 存储业务，因此受中国争端的影响更为实质性地类似于 $QLCM。所以我会将其降级为持有。 当然，鉴于特朗普是个变数，我不确定宏观风险会如何演变，如果紧张局势缓和，估值将会重新调整。
英文原文
For semis like $AMD it’s a buy for 1Y out when the 100B contract with OpenAI starts ramping up. Some other comment mentioned $MU, they’re more materially affected like $QLCM is to China disputes bc of large dram/nand for memory over there compared to something like $TSM. So would dg it to hold. Of course I’m not sure how macro risk will play out with Trump being a wild card and all, if tensions ease up things would be re-rated
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询问博主使用的壁纸。
@pontusab 认真问一句，那是什么壁纸？
英文原文
@pontusab Real question, what wallpaper is that
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@Solar_Twelve 我实际上已经触及了 X 平台股票代码数量的上限，否则我会讨论更多从 $AMD 到 $CRWV 的内容。不过，Coreweave 确实是新云(Neocloud)交易的核心，但相比 NBIS 或 CIFR，其债务状况相当糟糕。
英文原文
@Solar_Twelve I actually hit the X ticker maximum otherwise I would have talked about more stuff from $AMD to $CRWV. But yeah, Coreweave is at the center of the Neocloud trade but they have pretty toxic debt compared to NBIS or CIFR.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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LTC因政府停摆致ETF未获批及杠杆清算而下跌，但利于后续走高。
@Sum1OnX 第113轮，我在 $LTC 上亏损不少，但由于政府停摆，没有任何 ETF 获批。所有杠杆交易者都被清算了，所以从积极的一面来看，这有助于现在形成更高的价格高点。
英文原文
@Sum1OnX Round $113, I'm down quite a bit on $LTC but because of the government shutdown there hasn't been any ETF approvals. All the leverage traders got liquidated, so now it helps with higher highs now on the bright side.
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博主认为大跌是保证金清算所致，非主动抛售。
@chobiboni2 @antwithastick 肯定是某种形式的保证金清算（Margin Liquidation）哈哈。我不认为有人会在下跌21%的情况下卖出如此大的成交量。
英文原文
@chobiboni2 @antwithastick Definitely some sort of margin liquidation lol I don’t think anyone would sell that volume at -21%
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预测WSJ报道将引发市场恐慌性买回持仓。
@GrassKaniKani 如果你在 X 上看到或从新闻中听到这些信息，那真是太棒了。我猜一旦《华尔街日报》(WSJ) 发表相关文章，人们就会恐慌性地买回他们的持仓。
英文原文
@GrassKaniKani ah that's great information if you see this on X or listen to the news. I would guess people will panic buy their positions back the moment once there's some WSJ article.
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询问特朗普言论视频，认为若属实利好复苏。
@GrassKaniKani 哦，有特朗普说这个的视频吗？如果是这样，对复苏来说会是件好事。
英文原文
@GrassKaniKani Oh was there some video of Trump saying that? If so, would be a good thing for recovery.