全部推文
共 6765 条 · 第 125 / 226 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
澄清博通CPO评论，指出市场误将CPO利空等同于光子学板块利空。
是的，光子学板块今天被抛售，我的持仓也有轻微回撤，但我觉得人们误解了 $AVGO 关于共封装光学(CPO) 评论的细微差别。 这对许多光模块(optical transceiver)个股其实是非常看涨的。比如 $AAOI 先跌了 9% 但最终翻红。 主要是像 Soitec 这样具有 CPO 敞口的个股会是净利空。 但大多数人甚至算法都将 CPO 与光子学混为一谈，导致整个板块被抛售。
英文原文
Yeah photonics got dumped today, had a slight drawdown too, but feel like people missed the nuance for $AVGO CPO comments. It’s actually extremely bullish for a lot of the optical transceiver names. Stuff like $AAOI sold off 9% then ended up green. Mainly cpo exposure names like soitec would be net negatives Majortity of people and likely algos conflate cpo with photonics though so whole sector got sold off
-
批评忽视基本面盲目使用技术分析的行为。
@17Reazy 是的，这才是正确使用技术分析(TA)的方式。我也这么用。我只是说，那些追随并绘制那些400%+随机突破形态的人，完全没考虑其他因素，比如$IREN 60亿美元的烧钱稀释，简直是一派胡言。
英文原文
@17Reazy Yep, this is how you should use TA. I use it too. Just saying the people following and drawing those 400%+ random breakout patterns without considering anything else like $IREN $6B ATM dilution are full of it.
-
技术分析有用，但仅依赖它而无视其他因素是骗局。
@InitialY23 技术分析(TA)是一个有用的指标。这条帖子的核心观点是，那些仅依赖它而不考虑其他任何因素的图表发布者都是江湖骗子。
英文原文
@InitialY23 TA is a helpful indicator. The whole point of the post was that chart posters who rely on it **alone** without considering anything else are snake oil salesmen.
-
警示新手勿盲目迷信技术分析，需警惕流通盘解锁风险。
@themomentumplay 因为当新手看到有人通过技术分析(TA)预测 $BULL XYZ 突破至 $200，而其市值(MC)仅为 $500亿时，这确实会对他们造成真正的伤害。 那些画技术分析图的人并没有考虑到，下周将有 99.5% 的流通股本被解锁。
英文原文
@themomentumplay Because it’s genuinely harmful to newcomers when they see someone TA $BULL XYZ breakout to $200 when it was trading at a $50B MC. When those TA drawers didn’t account 99.5% of the float being unlocked the next week.
-
警告$IREN巨额稀释带来的长期卖压，质疑其涨至130美元的逻辑。
这60亿美元的稀释对$IREN来说，长期卖压绝对是巨大的。 很多人低估了这种ATM（自动取款机增发）对现有股东是多么恶劣。 如果你相信技术分析(TA)引用的观点，认为$IREN能无视图表，在接近一半流通盘被稀释并随后抛售的情况下，随机涨到130美元，那我就不懂了。
英文原文
The $6B dilution is absolutely immense long term selling pressure for $IREN. A lot of people understate how egregious that ATM actually is for existing shareholders. If you believe that TA quoted where $IREN randomly goes to $130 off the chart alone when close to half of their float is diluted and later sold, idk.
-
批评仅依赖技术分析而忽视基本面的交易行为。
@MirageWL8 X 上这么多人相信仅凭技术分析(Technical Analysis, TA)而不看基本面、宏观或催化剂就能交易，这就是他们如此受欢迎的原因。这根本不应该有争议。
英文原文
@MirageWL8 The fact so many people on X believe you can trade on TA alone without looking at stock fundamentals, macro, or catalysts is the reason why they’re so popular. This shouldn’t be controversial at all
-
HIMS遭NVO及政府诉讼，减肥药业务受阻，图表分析无效。
$HIMS 遭到 $NVO 和美国政府的疯狂诉讼。减肥化合物药物是其收入增长的主要途径，潜在的诉讼意味着其资产负债表存在危险信号。如果诉讼失败，$HIMS 可能会恢复。该图表本身毫无意义。
英文原文
$HIMS got sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US GOV. Compound weight loss drugs was their primary avenue for revenue growth and potential lawsuit means red flags for their balance sheet. If the lawsuit fell through, $HIMS would likely recover. That chart means nothing by itself
-
澄清IREN未单日抛售60亿，强调纯技术分析。
@Agrippa_Inv 谁说 $IREN 在一天内卖了 60 亿美元？ 这篇帖子完全是关于技术分析(TA)图表作为独立分析，并未包含任何关于基本面、宏观或催化剂的想法。
英文原文
@Agrippa_Inv Nobody said $IREN was selling $6B in one day? This whole post was about TA drawers as a standalone without including any thoughts about fundamentals, macro, or catalysts.
-
作者曾警告CRCL解禁风险，但当时技术派未予重视。
@cafeaulaitfr 是的，当 $CRCL 处于 140-200 美元区间时，我就曾警告过大家存在大规模的解禁股(share unlock)抛压。但当时很多画技术面(TA)的人似乎并不理解。 https://t.co/d0a3Qdoter
英文原文
@cafeaulaitfr Yeah I was warning people back at $140-$200 range on $CRCL that there was a massive share unlock. But a lot of the TA drawers back then didn’t seem to understand. https://t.co/d0a3Qdoter
-
技术分析仅是辅助，股价由基本面、宏观和催化剂决定。
我在$CRCL上市前禁售期股价$200时就说过这话。 现在面对$IREN在$60亿稀释后，我要再次重申以证明一个观点： 单纯的技术分析(TA)和图表分析，纯粹是占星术和骗人的鬼话。 价格极其多维，主要遵循三个因素： - 基本面（营收、增长、板块、利润率、利润） - 催化剂（财报、导致基本面重大变化的事件） - 宏观（战争、降息、流动性事件） 如果你读过我的任何帖子，我会尝试将这三者结合起来解释。 然而，我在X上到处看到那些付费墙后的技术分析(TA)绘图者，只发图表，对股票毫无基本面理解。 如果一家市值$130亿的公司发行$60亿新股并在公开市场全部抛售。 或者像(Webull)这样SPAC上市后市值$500亿的公司，原本只有1%的流通股交易，现在全部释放。 基本面的转变和公司行动绝对会摧毁任何图表形态。 股票遵循基本面、宏观和催化剂。 技术分析(TA)在极其多维的环境中只是一个有用的指标。 单靠它，那些向你兜售XYZ支撑位->ABC突破的人完全不知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
I’ve said this before with $CRCL pre-IPO lockup at $200. And I’ll say it again with $IREN post-$6B dilution to prove a point: TA and Charting alone, is pure astrology and snake oil. Prices are extremely multifaceted, they primarily follow 3 things: - Fundamentals (revenue, growth, sector, margins, profit) - Catalysts (earnings, events that lead to material fundamental changes) - Macro (War, Rate cuts, Liquidity events) If you ever read any of my posts I try to explain these three together. However, I keep seeing paywall TA drawers on X everywhere that post charts alone, showing zero fundamental understanding on stocks. If a company is valued at $13B issues $6B new shares then sells all of that on the open market. Or if a company like (Webull) valued at $50B post SPAC IPO only trades off 1% of their float then releases it all. Fundamental shifts and corporate actions will absolutely obliterate any pattern. Stocks follow fundamentals, macro, and catalysts. TA’s are only a helpful indicator, in an extremely multifaceted environment. By itself, people selling you XYZ support -> ABC breakouts have 0 clue what they’re talking about.
-
机构对小众光子上游认知滞后，X平台热度具误导性。
对于 $AAOI 来说并不意外。许多机构可能直到被大型 X 账号提及，才听说过像 $AXTI 这样更小众的光子学上游玩家。FinX 社区对这些标的介入极早，但由于 X 平台本身存在泡沫效应，感觉似乎已经“拥挤”。但如果你问这里以外的人这些名字是什么，他们完全一无所知。
英文原文
Not surprising with $AAOI. A lot of institutions probably never heard of a lot of the more niche photonic upstream players like $AXTI until they get mentioned by larger X accounts The FinX community is extremely early to a lot of these names but it feels “crowded” because X is a bubble. But if you ask anyone outside of here what some of these names are, they’ll have 0 clue.
-
AAOI波动剧烈且逢低买入，建议避免使用止损。
@michaelsikand 是的，每次 $AAOI 回调时，它就会被买入。不过该股的波动性（Volatility）确实疯狂，经常会出现从绿色（上涨）状态随机回撤10%的情况，这就是为什么人们不应该使用止损单（Stop Losses）。
英文原文
@michaelsikand Yeah anytime it dips, $AAOI just gets bought out. Volatility is crazy with the name though, has -10% random drawdowns into green, which is why people shouldn’t use stop losses.
-
重申对RDDT长期看好，认为基本面未变。
@swingtrader003 @CryptoVandelay 对 $RDDT 长期持有高确信度。除了今天大盘整体下跌外，没有任何变化。
英文原文
@swingtrader003 @CryptoVandelay High conviction in $RDDT long term. Nothing changed about it other than the market dropping as a whole today
-
祝贺粉丝破万，分享坚持初心带来的指数级增长。
@Kaizen_Investor 恭喜粉丝数达到 1 万！ 我记得今年刚开始时粉丝数也差不多是这个量级，而现在我已接近 10 万。 只要坚持初心，X 平台上的增长感觉是指数级的。
英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor Congrats on 10k followers! I remember starting out around that amount this year and now I’m close to 100K. Feels like growth is exponential with X as long as you stay true to what you’ve been doing from the start.
-
光子学板块普跌，小市值公司波动性显著高于巨头。
@CryptoVandelay 一个很好的教训是，如果像 $IQE 这样的股票单日能上涨 25%，它也可能在单个交易日内出现 20% 的回撤。整个光子学(Photonics)板块都在下跌，$COHR 下跌了 8%。鉴于它是一家市值 450 亿美元的公司，我认为较小的公司波动性更大。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay A good lesson is if a stock like $IQE moves up 25% a day, it can also have 20% drawdowns in a single session too. Whole photonics sector is down, $COHR is down 8%. Given it’s a $45B company, I’d say smaller ones are more volatile.
-
看好AAOI未来一年风险回报，但需承受高波动。
@Ren_aramb 不错！与同行相比，我认为 $AAOI 在未来一年的风险回报比极具吸引力。只是它的贝塔值(高波动性)非常高，所以需要忍受波动并建立你自己的信念。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Nice! I see $AAOI risk-return extremely promising over the next year compared to other companies. It’s just very high beta so need to stomach the volatility and develop your own conviction.
-
$AAOI逆势上涨，因垂直整合供应链且估值远低于同行，潜力巨大。
$AAOI 面临异常强劲的买盘压力。 今天所有主要的光子学(Photonics)概念股都在下跌： $LITE 下跌 -4.74% $COHR 下跌 -8% $AXTI 下跌 -2.5% $IQE 下跌 -20% $FN 下跌 -3.98% 但 $AAOI 是光子学板块中唯一飘红的股票。 当你审视 $AAOI 的“激光器->设计->组装”供应链时，其估值仅为 75 亿美元，存在巨大且纯粹的上涨空间。 相比之下，其亚洲或西方竞争对手的估值均超过 500 亿美元。
英文原文
$AAOI has exceptionally strong buying pressure. All major photonics names are down today: $LITE down -4.74% $COHR down -8% $AXTI down -2.5% $IQE down -20%. $FN down -3.98. But $AAOI is the photonics name green. There’s a raw, unadulterated upside when you look at $AAOI laser -> design -> assembly supply chain valued at $7.5B. And compare it to their Asian or Western counterparts all valued at $50B+
-
强调在高波动股票交易前需建立个人确信度。
@awarness1780 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都具有极高的贝塔值(高波动性)，因此在入场前，建立自己对这笔交易的确信度非常重要。
英文原文
@awarness1780 $AAOI and $AXTI are both extremely high beta which is why it’s important to build conviction in the trade yourself before entering.
-
看好$LASR作为定向能武器纯正标的，认为其风险收益比极佳。
@SpilledMocha 我不清楚这会走向何方，我只是想获得定向能武器（Directed Energy Weapons）领域的敞口，发现 $LASR 是纯正标的+已投入运营+规模足够小，使得此处的风险/收益比（Risk/Reward）具有非对称性。
英文原文
@SpilledMocha No clue where this heads, I just wanted exposure to energy directed weapons and found $LASR to be pure play + operational + small enough that risk/reward was asymmetrical from here
-
LASR 跌 9% 令人意外，原视其为优质对冲标的。
@yoursregarded 我原本认为 $LASR 加上国防板块会是更好的对冲手段，所以今天它下跌 9% 让我感到惊讶。这是许久以来的首个红色交易日（下跌日）。
英文原文
@yoursregarded I thought $LASR + defense would have been a better hedge so surprising it dropped 9% today. First red day in awhile
-
博主遗憾错过LASR建仓，但庆幸加入投资圈子。
@pennycheck 没错！这是一个很棒的早期发现，自从收到你的私信后我就一直在跟踪它，但遗憾的是我没有建仓 $LASR。不过加入这个圈子，晚点总比永远不加入好。
英文原文
@pennycheck Yep! Great early find, I was tracking it earlier since your DM but sad I didn’t take positions in $LASR. Better late than never to join the club though
-
Baird强烈看好$LASR，称其为唯一纯概念定向能武器股。
$LASR：“独一无二的公司；保持长期持有”。 这是来自 Baird 的极其强烈的措辞。 分析师报告通常不会在给出“跑赢大盘”评级时使用如此强烈的措辞。 然而，这种兴奋感是真实的： 特别是本周发布了 Iron Beam（$LASR 的知名供应商）运行中的实时视频，展示了其激光拦截 incoming missiles（ incoming 导弹）的能力。 并且随着美国“金穹顶”项目带来的潜在市场规模（TAM）即将扩张。 $LASR 是唯一公开交易的美国定向能武器纯概念股。 我与 Baird 分析师持有相同的观点，认为它是一家独一无二的公司。
英文原文
$LASR: “A One of One Company; Stay Long”. This is exceptionally strong wording coming from Baird. Analyst reports typically never illicit this strong of wording with Outperform ratings. However the excitement is real: Especially after live videos of an operational the Iron Beam this week ( $LASR known supplier ), lasering down incoming missiles. And with the imminent TAM expansion with America’s Golden Dome Project. $LASR is the only publicly tradeable US pure play exposure to energy directed weapons. I share the same sentiment with Baird analysts that it is a One of One company.
-
澄清AI芯片出口管制仅为提案，驳斥误报引发的供应链恐慌。
“美国正考虑要求全球 $NVDA、$AMD AI 芯片销售需获许可” 市场正对特朗普政府拟对英伟达实施类似 $AXTI 出口管制待遇的消息做出剧烈反应。 关键词：提案 | 草案。 该提案原样通过的可能性几乎为零。 随着消息报道，科技公司很可能正在游说政府。 文章中提到： 特朗普政府将提出法规，要求全球 AI 芯片出货需经美国批准。 该法案的结果将毫无理由地造成 AI 贸易瓶颈，并损害特朗普最看重的指标：美国股市。 特朗普曾以废除拜登时代的 AI 扩散规则而闻名： “包括英伟达、微软和甲骨文在内的主要美国科技公司曾游说反对该规则，认为其可能导致数十亿美元收入损失，并促使合作伙伴转向中国技术。” 因此，新政策的实施将与其议程背道而驰。 不幸的是，其他文章和新闻将其改写为迫在眉睫的出口管制，而非提案。 耸人听闻/虚假的标题报道引发了从 $TSM、$NVDA 到 $MU 的整个供应链今日的大幅抛售。 然而，人们确实有权对潜在影响感到担忧。
英文原文
“US Mulls Requiring Permits for Global $NVDA, $AMD AI Chip Sales” Markets are reacting violently to news of the Trump administration was thinking about giving Nvidia the $AXTI export control treatment. Keyword: Proposal | Draft. There is an almost zero chance it passes as is. Tech companies are likely lobbying the administration as this gets reported. In the article: The Trump administration will propose regulations that would require American approval for AI chip shipments worldwide. The result of this bill would bottleneck the AI trade for no reason and harm Trump’s favorite metric: the US stock market. Trump was known for rescinding the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule: “Major U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle, lobbied against the rule, arguing it could cost them billions in revenue and push partners towards Chinese technology.” So a new policy getting enacted, would be counterintuitive to his agenda. Unfortunately other articles + news on elsewhere reworded this as an imminent export control, rather than a proposal. Sensational / false headline reporting triggered a massive selloff of the entire supply chain from $TSM, $NVDA, to $MU today. However, people do have a right to be worried about the implications.
-
批评 IREN 和 NBIS 巨额增发稀释股权，认为投资者应回避。
@Agrippa_Inv 这一举措客观上很糟糕……我不明白 $IREN 的投资者怎么会支持 60 亿美元的 ATM（自动取款机式增发）。如果 $NBIS 进行 110 亿美元的 ATM 增发，我也会毫不犹豫地逃之夭夭。
英文原文
@Agrippa_Inv This one is objectively bad… I don’t see how $IREN investors could support a $6B ATM. If $NBIS ran an $11B ATM, I wouldn’t hesitate to fun for the hills either.
-
质疑BKKT和IREN借名人效应吸引散户后恶意稀释股权。
@wilson_eth 感觉像 $BKKT 或 $IREN 这样的公司聘请那位人士，只是为了吸引新的散户买家，然后将其无限稀释。
英文原文
@wilson_eth Feels like companies like $BKKT or $IREN only bring the guy on so they can get new retail buyers then dilute them to oblivion
-
IREN巨额增发稀释远超NBIS，非市场恐慌而是既定事实。
@Gyujin_9701 当 $IREN 实际执行增发以稀释股权并不可避免地向市场抛售价值60亿美元的股份时，这并非恐慌、不确定性和怀疑(FUD)。我原本强烈反对 $NBIS 进行25亿美元的此类操作，但这次规模完全不在一个量级上。
英文原文
@Gyujin_9701 It’s not FUD when $IREN actually went out and filled to dilute and inevitably sell $6B worth of shares into the market. I was really against $NBIS doing it with $2.5B but this is on another scale.
-
IREN因重资本支出导致利润率受损
@Yeah_Dave 是的，与其他设计自定义服务器机架(custom server racks)以绕过原始设备制造商(OEM)成本的公司不同，$IREN 在此方面确实投入了大量资本支出(capex)，这在一定程度上损害了利润率。
英文原文
@Yeah_Dave Yeah, unlike others that design their own things like custom server racks to bypass oem costs, $IREN does spend a lot of capex on it, which does hurt margins a bit
-
批评IREN和AMC投资者将股权稀释粉饰为利好。
@darth_kirk 只有在看 $IREN 和 $AMC 时，我才见过投资者试图将股份被稀释到虚无解释为利好。
英文原文
@darth_kirk Only with $IREN and $AMC have I seen investors try to spin their shares getting diluted to oblivion as a positive thing.
-
IREN 巨额增发致稀释，商业模式不及 NBIS，看多逻辑失效。
三天后，$IREN 再次进行 60 亿美元的自动取款机 (ATM) 增发，在公开市场上出售了几乎一半的市值。变现 3-4GW 产能听起来不错，但如果你是现有股东，情况就不妙了。看起来他们的经济模型不像 $NBIS 那样能覆盖足够多的资本支出 (Capex)。我和去年其他人的看多逻辑是：$IREN 通过托管 (Colo) 业务产生自由现金流 (FCF) 来资助 GPU 相关扩张。但这发生了实质性变化，增加了执行不确定性，并在此基础上带来了无尽的稀释。
英文原文
3 days later $IREN is having another $6B ATM, selling almost half their marketcap on the open market. Monetizing 3-4GW capacity sounds good, but not if you’re an existing shareholder. Doesn’t look like their economics cover enough of their capex in the way $NBIS does. My bull case, alongside everyone else’s last year: was for $IREN to do colo and fund GPU related expansion with FCF. This materially changed and added execution uncertainty + endless dilution on top.
-
AI结构性改变需求，超大规模云服务商瓶颈下不会像亚马逊当年那样取消订单。
人们常将此次情况与多年前 $AMZN 因供过于需而取消订单引发的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)相提并论。 人工智能在结构上改变了对许多前“大宗商品”的需求，包括GPU、内存，以及现在的光模块/激光器。 鉴于超大规模云服务商目前面临的瓶颈，我认为这次不会出现取消订单的情况。
英文原文
People often make comparisons to the $AMZN PTSD pulling orders many years ago when there was an oversupply. AI structurally changed demand for a lot of former“commodities” from the GPUs, memory, and now optical transceivers/lasers. Don’t think there will be an order pull this time around given how bottlenecked hyperscalers are