· 方法论
我在$CRCL上市前禁售期股价$200时就说过这话。 现在面对$IREN在$60亿稀释后，我要再次重申以证明一个观点： 单纯的技术分析(TA)和图表分析，纯粹是占星术和骗人的鬼话。 价格极其多维，主要遵循三个因素： - 基本面（营收、增长、板块、利润率、利润） - 催化剂（财报、导致基本面重大变化的事件） - 宏观（战争、降息、流动性事件） 如果你读过我的任何帖子，我会尝试将这三者结合起来解释。 然而，我在X上到处看到那些付费墙后的技术分析(TA)绘图者，只发图表，对股票毫无基本面理解。 如果一家市值$130亿的公司发行$60亿新股并在公开市场全部抛售。 或者像(Webull)这样SPAC上市后市值$500亿的公司，原本只有1%的流通股交易，现在全部释放。 基本面的转变和公司行动绝对会摧毁任何图表形态。 股票遵循基本面、宏观和催化剂。 技术分析(TA)在极其多维的环境中只是一个有用的指标。 单靠它，那些向你兜售XYZ支撑位->ABC突破的人完全不知道自己在说什么。
I’ve said this before with $CRCL pre-IPO lockup at $200. And I’ll say it again with $IREN post-$6B dilution to prove a point: TA and Charting alone, is pure astrology and snake oil. Prices are extremely multifaceted, they primarily follow 3 things: - Fundamentals (revenue, growth, sector, margins, profit) - Catalysts (earnings, events that lead to material fundamental changes) - Macro (War, Rate cuts, Liquidity events) If you ever read any of my posts I try to explain these three together. However, I keep seeing paywall TA drawers on X everywhere that post charts alone, showing zero fundamental understanding on stocks. If a company is valued at $13B issues $6B new shares then sells all of that on the open market. Or if a company like (Webull) valued at $50B post SPAC IPO only trades off 1% of their float then releases it all. Fundamental shifts and corporate actions will absolutely obliterate any pattern. Stocks follow fundamentals, macro, and catalysts. TA’s are only a helpful indicator, in an extremely multifaceted environment. By itself, people selling you XYZ support -> ABC breakouts have 0 clue what they’re talking about.