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博主祝贺粉丝年初至今143.5%的惊人回报并感谢其互动。
@Ren_aramb 年初至今(YTD)回报率143.5%太疯狂了，恭喜！我看到你与我发布的每一条帖子互动，所以谢谢你皮卡丘。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb 143.5% return is insane YTD, congrats! I see you interacting with every one of my posts so thank you pikachu
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博主偏好投资美国本土光模块替代股以获取溢价。
谢谢！我喜欢与中国社区互动。关于中际旭创(Innolight)和新易盛(Eoptolink)，我认为它们是光子学领域的一流多头标的，尤其是随着光模块(transceiver)的繁荣。但如果它们不像$AXTI那样具有垄断地位，我个人更倾向于投资西方供应链的替代方案，如$AAOI。市场通常会给“美国制造”的股票赋予溢价，即使它们的收入/盈利能力不如前者。
英文原文
Thanks! I love interacting with the Chinese community. As for Innolight and Eoptolink i think they’re top tier longs for photonics segment. Especially with the transceiver boom now. But if they’re not monopolies like $AXTI, I personally just prefer to invest in Western supply chain alternatives like $AAOI instead. The market usually assigns a premium to “Made in America” stocks, even if they don’t have as much revenue/profitability.
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通过追踪AI资本支出流向及电网需求来构建投资组合。
我很受宠若惊 lol。但即使指数相对持平，我对表现也很满意！ 很大一部分原因在于追踪资金流向。 例如：$GOOGL $1800亿资本支出 -> TPU项目 -> TPU物料清单(BOM) -> 8-12% $LITE -> 来自 $AXTI 的上游材料或来自 $IQE 的外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 或者仅仅是 DRAM/NAND 价格上涨 -> 简单地做多存储。 最近由于 Elon 和 OpenAI 推动电网扩张和更多容量，焦点转向电力/电网，因此做多 $XLU。 我想这只是运气好赶上了动量？
英文原文
I’m flattered lol. But I’m happy with the performance even with a relatively flat index! A large part of it is mapping where all the spend goes. Eg. $GOOGL $180B capex -> TPU program -> BOM of TPU -> 8-12% $LITE -> upstream materials from $AXTI or epiwafers from $IQE. Or just the DRAM/NAND price hikes -> as simple as going long on memory. Recently it’s been power/grid focused from Elon and OpenAI pushing for grid expansion and more capacity, so long $XLU. I guess it’s just getting lucky with momentum?
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博主感谢粉丝关注，回顾从发梗图到粉丝量激增的经历。
谢谢！我的帖子能引起大家的阅读兴趣，这对我意义重大。 几个月前我开始发帖时，主要是给 Reddit 上的朋友们发梗图和 $UPWK 及 $GOOGL 的技术分析(TA)草图。 但我想其他人也觉得我的其他深度拆解很有洞察力，所以开始关注？从 9K 粉丝增长到今年接近 90K，这真的让我感到谦卑！
英文原文
Thank you! It really means a lot that my posts are interesting enough to read. When I first started posting a few months ago, was mainly to my Reddit friends for memes TA drawings like $UPWK and $GOOGL. But I guess other people found my other breakdowns insightful enough to tune in? It’s pretty humbling to go from 9K followers to close to 90K this year!
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逢高加仓AXTI等AI瓶颈股，调仓先进封装至极端瓶颈环节。
两者皆是。自$AXTI是未来多年整个AI行业的瓶颈以来，我一直在逢高加仓，即便其市值仅24亿美元。 $AAOI可能还有很长的路要走，其2026年营收及2027年中期的增长已实现了对$LITE的跨越式超越，而估值仅为后者的十分之一。 我确实开仓了像$LITE供应商$IQE这样的新多头头寸。随后又新增了如定向能武器领域的$LASR等仓位。 我的持仓记忆确实很长，因为SK海力士明年的营业利润可能会超过其整个市值…… 然后我确实从一些先进封装概念股中调仓，转向了AI资本支出中极端的现有瓶颈环节。
英文原文
Both. Cost averaging up on $AXTI since it’s the bottleneck of the entire AI industry for many years to come, even at a small $2.4B MC. $AAOI probably has a long way to go, it leapfrogged $LITE 2026 revenue + growth midyear 2027 at 1/10th the valuation. I did enter new longs like $IQE as a $LITE supplier. And then been adding new positions like $LASR for energy directed weapons. Definitely long memory since SK Hynix might print more operating income than their entire marketcap by next year… Then I did rotate out of a few like some advanced packing names into extreme existing bottlenecks from ai capex
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博主晒出501%收益，称持有了光子、存储及亚洲瓶颈环节的所有领涨股。
我碰巧持有了今年所有表现最好的个股： 从光子学领域的 $AXTI 和 $AAOI， 到存储领域的 $SNDK 和 SK 海力士， 再到亚洲瓶颈环节的 Nittobo、 Macronix 和 Unimicron。 所有持仓在两个月内均实现三位数回报。 年初至今收益率：501.38% 只是运气好吧？
英文原文
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?
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预测AXTI市值一两年内或达200亿美元
@DeFi_AdamZ 如果 $AXTI 在一两年内交易到 200 亿美元，我不会感到惊讶。
英文原文
@DeFi_AdamZ would not be surprised if $AXTI traded at $20B in a year or two
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分享AXTI暴涨4倍收益，并乐享挖掘AI行业瓶颈。
@Veri_ta5321 随时欢迎！自从我发帖时的日内低点以来，$AXTI 已上涨近4倍！短短两个半月，这趟旅程真是疯狂。 我很享受像淘金一样挖掘整个AI行业的小型瓶颈环节。
英文原文
@Veri_ta5321 Anytime! $AXTI has increased close to 4x since intraday low when I posted! In just two and a half months, it’s been a crazy ride. Having a fun time gold mining for small bottlenecks of the entire AI industry.
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NVDA注资Lumentum，上游AXTI/IQE或成瓶颈。
在$NVDA达成$20亿交易后，所有人都在$540亿市值下抢购$LITE。等他们发现谁是Lumentum的上游瓶颈及供应商时再买吧。像$AXTI和可能的$IQE这样的公司可能还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal. Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are. Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go. https://t.co/Hep3S6174M
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LASR有望成为大规模金穹系统定向能武器的核心。
@DA_Capital_ 基本上是这样。如果该技术在以色列得到验证，$LASR 很可能成为“金穹”（Golden Dome）系统中定向能武器的重要组成部分，而“金穹”的规模要广泛得多。
英文原文
@DA_Capital_ Basically. If it works in Israel, $LASR is likely going to be a huge part of energy directed weapons in the Golden Dome, which is much wider in scale
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博主分享发现 $LASR 很酷
@Gubloinvestor 谢谢，我只是分享沿途的发现！我刚发现 $LASR 真的很酷
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor Thanks, I’m just sharing my discoveries along the way! I just found $LASR to be really cool
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Nlight 作为 Iron Beam 供应商，2025 年发货量预计加速。
Nlight 是一家分包商： “我们是 Iron Beam 的供应商，不仅深度参与当前产品，还参与其未来开发。” “我们于 2024 年下半年开始向该项目 [Iron Beam] 发货，并预计在整个 2025 年加速发货。”
英文原文
Nlight is a subcontractor: “We are a supplier into Iron Beam, and we are deeply engaged with not only the current products but the future development there.” "We began shipping components toward this program [Iron Beam] in the second half of 2024, and we expect to accelerate those shipments throughout 2025."
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LASR作为铁束激光引擎供应商，因实战成功获看好，具纯正EDW概念。
$LASR 是唯一一家在美国公开交易的、纯正的能量定向武器（Energy Directed Weapons）概念股。 $LASR 是 Rafael 公司“铁束”（Iron Beam）系统的激光引擎供应商。 市场可能忽略了其与 NLight 之间的两层关联关系。 “铁束”系统今天首次实战部署，并取得了巨大成功。 今天还发布了一篇题为《美国持续探索如何停止用400万美元的导弹去打击3万美元的无人机》的文章： “多年来，激光武器一直是国防工业的新奇工具，总是‘还有五年才成熟’且‘超支十亿美元’。自2025年底以来，这个梦想正式投入运营，像烤面包卷一样在半空中烧毁威胁目标。 其吸引力纯粹是爱因斯坦式的艺术。无需发射需要博士维护的复杂拦截器，‘铁束’只需将100千瓦的高能激光聚焦于目标，直到其结构完整性不复存在。 没有爆炸，没有可追踪的尾气轨迹，神奇的是也没有重新装填时间。只要发电机有那甜美、甜美的柴油，你就拥有无限弹药。” $LASR 是以仅35亿美元市值提供的未来战争形态的纯正敞口。
英文原文
$LASR is the only US publicly traded, pure-play Energy Directed Weapons stock. $LASR is the laser engine for Rafael's Iron Beam. And markets may have missed the the two-hop relation to NLight. The Iron Beam was live for the first time today and wildly successful. An article: "America’s ongoing quest to stop firing $4 million missiles at $30,000 drones" was also put out today: "For years, laser weapons were the novelty tool of the defense industry, always five years away and ten billion dollars over budget. Since late 2025, the dream is officially operational, baking threats in mid-air like dinner rolls. The appeal is pure, unadulterated Einsteinian art. Instead of launching a sophisticated interceptor that requires a PhD to maintain, the Iron Beam focuses a 100kW high-energy laser onto a target until its structural integrity ceases to exist. There is no explosion, no exhaust trail to track, and, magically, no reload time. As long as the generator has that sweet, sweet diesel, you have an infinite magazine." $LASR is the pure play exposure for the future of warfare at a tiny $3.5B MC.
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分析三星/SK海力士遇DRAM涨价反跌现象，看好基本面回归及SK海力士估值潜力。
不确定是不是只有我这么觉得？ 但我一直在追踪三星/SK海力士与DRAM/NAND涨价报道之间的相关性。 每当有关于DRAM和NAND大幅涨价的报道时，它们两者以及 $EWY 似乎都会下跌。 然后之后又会展开一波反弹？ 例如，上个月 Trendforce 报道了DRAM涨70%和NAND涨100%+，三星/SK海力士在消息发布后都下跌了。 1个月后它们上涨了27.8%。 这次在 sedaily 和 digitimes 报道DRAM涨价后，两者再次下跌。但也许伊朗战争是一个更多的混淆因素。 在利好消息下下跌似乎非常反直觉。但最终基本面会占据主导？ 特别是如果明年，SK海力士2026-2027年的营业利润最终超过其市值？ 例如，麦格理在2月24-25日给出的预测：~1905亿美元 + ~3128亿美元营业利润预测（5030亿美元营业利润 vs. SK海力士~5140亿美元市值）。
英文原文
Not sure if it's just me? But I've been tracking Samsung/SK Hynix correlation to DRAM/NAND price hikes reports. Every time there's news about reported massive hikes on DRAM on NAND, they both + $EWY seem to drop. Then afterwards, it pulls off a rally? For example, last month Trendforce reported 70% DRAM and 100%+ NAND hikes and Samsung/Sk Hynix both dropped following the news. 1 month later it increased 27.8%. This time both have dropped again after DRAM price hikes from sedaily and digitimes. But maybe the war in Iran is more of a confounding factor. Seems very counterintuitive going down on positive news. But eventually fundamentals take over? Especially if by next year, SK Hynix's operating income for 2026-2027 ends up surpassing its marketcap? eg. ~$190.5 billion USD+ ~$312.8 billion USD operating income projections ($503B operating income vs. Sk Hynix~$514B MC) from Macquarie on the 24th-25th in Feb.
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博主晒出AXTI持仓455%收益，并期待IQE表现。
@ryansfinance 谢谢！你肯定错过了 $AXTI，我的持仓收益已达 455%。 是的，希望 $IQE 接下来也能有积极表现！https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
英文原文
@ryansfinance Thanks! You missed out on $AXTI for sure, my positions are up like 455%. Yep hope to see something positive with $IQE next! https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
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博主表示读者花时间阅读其内容即带来满足感。
@Philippe45164 只要大家花时间阅读我的想法，我就已经感到足够满足了！
英文原文
@Philippe45164 I get enough fulfillment from people just spending the time to read about my thoughts!
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博主回顾去年研究，庆幸精准预判英伟达投资及光模块股表现。
@invspoter 如果我能帮上忙，我很高兴！ 不过很高兴我去年在研究论文中精准预判了这一点。$NVDA 最终投资了 $LITE 和 $COHR。然后 $AAOI 今年也大幅上涨。https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
英文原文
@invspoter I'm happy if I was able to help! Glad I got this part spot on from my thesis last year though. $NVDA ended up investing in both of $LITE and $COHR. Then $AAOI ended up popping off this year. https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
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台湾光子学股票集体大涨，疑似机构提前获知消息。
@galaxymaker1989 @ryansfinance 是的，我对 $IQE 也有同样的想法。但奇怪的是，台湾的光子学(Photonics)股票全都大涨了10%以上，比如 Landmark？我猜测是一些机构可能提前泄露了消息。
英文原文
@galaxymaker1989 @ryansfinance Yeah I was thinking the same for $IQE. But it was really weird photonics stocks in Taiwan all rallied 10%+ like Landmark? My guess is some institutions maybe got the news leaked early.
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NVDA投资LITE带动其供应商IQE股价大涨28%
@ryansfinance 所以 $NVDA 向 $LITE 投资 20 亿美元，$IQE 可能是最大的受益者，因为作为其外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂，他们是 $LITE 的主要供应商。我一直在想为什么 IQE 今天涨了 28%……这大概就是原因。
英文原文
@ryansfinance So $NVDA investing $2B into $LITE is probably the biggest beneficiary for $IQE since they're a massive $LITE supplier as their epiwafer foundry. I was wondering why IQE was up 28% today... This was probably the reason
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博主炫耀选股大幅跑赢大盘，部分持仓翻倍后回调。
@Investmnt_Eagle 哈哈，是的，我选的所有股票比如 $AAOI 和 $IQE 最近每天涨幅都在 20-40% 左右。$AXTI 和 $LITE 在本月翻倍后正在小憩调整。说实话，市场其他部分并没有玩得这么开心。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle LOL yeah all my picks like $AAOI and $IQE are up like 20-40% a day recently. $AXTI, $LITE have been taking a tiny rest after doubling this month. Rest of the market not having as much of a fun time tbh.
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光子学供应链相关个股近期走势强劲，全线上涨。
@anhecdote 随时欢迎！是的，我之前提到的整个光子学(Photonics)供应链，包括 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$IQE 和 $AAOI，走势都是一条直线向上的绿色阳线。
英文原文
@anhecdote Anytime! Yeah the entire photonics supply chain that I've mentioned from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $IQE, and $AAOI has been a straight green line up.
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英伟达投资相干光，利好光子学供应链及相干光。
$NVDA 刚刚向 $COHR 投资 20 亿美元，用于先进激光器和光网络产品。这对 $AXTI（衬底供应商）、$AAOI 等其他光网络公司以及整个光子学供应链构成了极其强劲的利好。而最大的直接受益者无疑是 $COHR。
英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion into $COHR for advanced laser and optical networking products. This is an extremely bullish tailwind for $AXTI (substrate provider), other optical networking companies like $AAOI, and the entire photonics supply chain. And most of all the direct beneficiary is $COHR.
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英伟达投资Lumentum，利好光子学供应链及上游供应商。
$NVDA 刚刚投资 20 亿美元支持 Lumentum 的研发及美国新建晶圆厂。这对 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI、$IQE 等光子学股票是巨大的顺风。$IQE 今日上涨 28% 更合理了，因为它是 $LITE 的已知供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。该合作聚焦硅光子学、光互连及封装集成，惠及整个光子学供应链。
英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
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指出LASR是公开市场唯一的定向能武器纯概念股。
@geokoutalidis 是的，提醒得很及时！市场上还有其他大型参与者，比如 $DRS、$RTX 和 $ESLT。但据我所知，除了 $LASR 之外，公开市场上没有其他股票能纯粹地暴露于定向能武器（Directed Energy Weapons）领域。
英文原文
@geokoutalidis Yep great shout! There's other large players out there, like $DRS or $RTX and $ESLT. But nothing publicly traded really has pure play exposure to energy directed weapons aside from $LASR AFAIK.
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作者因激光武器实战演示而反思未买入LASR的遗憾。
@tang2026 现代战争真是疯狂，我们终于有了激光拦截一切... 我以为这要远得多，所以我从未对 $LASR 下手。但太疯狂了，我们终于第一次亲眼目睹了它。
英文原文
@tang2026 Modern warfare is just so wild that we finally have lasers just shooting down everything... I thought it would be way further out, which is why I never pulled the trigger on $LASR. But wild we finally get to see it live for the first time.
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$LASR获实战验证，预计将获大量国防合同。
我们需要观望，目前这更像是一笔催化剂交易。 $LASR 刚刚获得了其历史上最大的验证，其激光武器首次实战成功击落了大量目标。 我猜测，随着“铁束”（Iron Beam）系统的扩展（因为验证有效）以及向高超音速导弹等其他应用领域的拓展，大量合同可能会流向 $LASR。
英文原文
We'll need to see, it's more of a catalyst trade right now. $LASR just got the biggest validation in their lifetime for the first usage of their Laser Weapons shooting down a bunch of stuff. My guess is a ton of contracts will likely flow into $LASR now both from expanding Iron Beam (because it worked) and toward other applications like hypersonic missiles.
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博主因看好激光武器概念，决定在股价大涨后追涨买入$LASR。
@theodore_invest 自今年1月我发帖以来，它已经上涨了50%+……但我本应该当时就建仓，因为我觉得激光武器(laser weapons)超级酷。 最终我现在扣动了扳机，对于 $LASR 来说，迟做总比不做好。
英文原文
@theodore_invest It was up 50%+ or so since i posted last Jan... But I should have taken positions then because I thought laser weapons were super cool. Ended up pulling the trigger now, better late than never for $LASR.
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博主表示在观察后最终建仓了持续上涨的$LASR。
@theodore_invest 每次我发帖 $LASR 就继续上涨，哈哈…… 在看完它击溃一堆东西后，最终建立了头寸。 https://t.co/71MZrSHeFs
英文原文
@theodore_invest $LASR keeps going higher every time I post LOL... Ended up finally taking positions after seeing it shoot down a bunch of stuff. https://t.co/71MZrSHeFs
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首次目睹LASR实战应用，确认其具备实战验证能力。
@Vcondry84 第一次亲眼看到 $LASR 实战应用，简直太疯狂了。我关注它有一段时间了，但直到现在才看到真正的实战验证。https://t.co/KMnDV9dlD5
英文原文
@Vcondry84 It's absolutely wild to see $LASR in action for the first time. I was aware of it for awhile but didn't really see any combat validation until now. https://t.co/KMnDV9dlD5