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因铁束实战验证，作者在30亿市值时建仓纯定向能武器股LASR。
$LASR 来自“铁束”系统的定向能武器。这很可能是美以 vs 伊朗冲突中最大的受益者和验证者。真主党向以色列发射火箭弹。-> $LASR (Nlight) 的激光引擎在 Rafael 的“铁束”系统中将其击落。亲眼目睹其实战效果简直令人疯狂。鉴于刚刚得到的验证，预计大量国防基金近期将涌入定向能武器领域。特别是通过 HELSI 计划拦截高超音速导弹。虽然 $DRS 或 $RTX 等大型玩家也有相关敞口，但只有 $LASR 是市值 31 亿美元的纯定向能武器股。它恰好也是“铁束”系统的已知关键供应商。我最终在 $LASR 市值 30 亿美元时建立了头寸。
英文原文
$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam. Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict. Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel. -> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down. It's absolutely wild to see it in action. Lot of defense funds will now probably be pouring into Energy Directed Weapons in the near future given validation just now. Especially to zap down hypersonic missiles with the HELSI initiative. There's a few large player exposure like $DRS or $RTX but there's only one $3.1B MC pure-play energy directed weapons stock. Which also happens to be a known critical supplier for the Iron Beam. Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC.
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澄清超大规模云厂商订单无取消风险，强调美国本土供应链优势及光子学瓶颈。
超大规模云服务商提前一年下满所有产能的订单，并不意味着有取消风险？我不确定你从哪得出这个结论。 什么20%的利润率上限？他们提到的是40%。 此外，它们拥有“美国制造”的供应链，这很罕见，$LITE 和 $COHR 的组装都在亚洲进行。 但如果人们因多年前 $AMZN 取消订单而患有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，那也能理解。但这次应该不同，因为光子学(Photonics)是已知的瓶颈，且需求超过供应。
英文原文
Three to four hyperscaler orders for all the capacity they can make a year out doesn’t mean risk of cancellation? Not sure where you’re getting that from. What 20% margin ceiling? They cited 40%. Also they’re Made in America supply chains which is rare, $LITE and $COHR do assembly in Asia. But makes sense of people have ptsd from $AMZN order cancellation many years ago. But this time should be different since photonics is a known bottleneck and demand outstrips supply
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建议在AEHR和AAOI之间采取多元化配置策略。
@B38B37 如果你在 $AEHR 和 $AAOI 之间做选择，我是多元化(Diversification)的拥趸。多多益善。
英文原文
@B38B37 I’m a fan of diversification if you’re choosing between $AEHR and $AAOI. The more the merrier.
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评论X用户往往过早介入，若营收预测达成则上行空间巨大。
@Kaizen_Investor 如果他们实现基于40%毛利率的约40亿美元营收预测，上行空间可能非常大。X上的人们总是对事物介入得太早。
英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor Likely tons of upside if they hit the their ~$4B revenue projection off 40% margins. People on X are just really early to things
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光子学板块股票正经历剧烈重新定价。
@LIWEILIU476419 所有光子学(Photonics)板块股票正在经历剧烈的重新定价。 https://t.co/BBMsC9yQI8
英文原文
@LIWEILIU476419 Wild repricing event for all photonics sector stocks. https://t.co/BBMsC9yQI8
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分享AXTI等个股早期布局逻辑及CPO前瞻。
$AXTI 和 $AAOI 可能还非常早期。$LITE 的定价已略有反映。$COHR 还有很长的路要走。 $IQE 处于非常早期的阶段，但由于重组带来的固有风险，我不建议其他人参与。我只是分享我建仓的逻辑，并沿途庆祝进展。 至于 2028 年的共封装光学(CPO)，明年有一套不同的标的供提前布局。
英文原文
Probably very early to $AXTI and $AAOI. $LITE slightly more priced in. $COHR has some way to go. $IQE is very early but I wouldn’t recommend it to people since it’s inherently risky due to restructuring. I’m just sharing why I entered the trade and celebrating along the way. Then for cpo in 2028 there’s a different set of picks for next year to frontrun.
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光子学板块个股无视宏观风险持续大涨
看来 $IQE 也不关心伊朗战争？ 我核心光子学(Photonics)板块的选股 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR 和 $AAOI 最近每天都呈垂直上涨态势，完全无视任何宏观因素。https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
英文原文
Apparently $IQE does not concern itself with the War in Iran either? My core photonics segment picks from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI have been just vertical green line up every day recently, despite any macro. https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
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预测某股将垂直整合，视AAOI为一年期交易。
@Blazedsin 是也不是。我猜测它最终可能会像 $SMCI 或 $SNDK 那样走向垂直整合，大部分营收增长将持续到 2027 年底。然后共封装光学(CPO) 就会推出。$AAOI 对我来说是一笔为期一年的交易。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yes and no. My guess is that it’s probably going to end up vertical like $SMCI or $SNDK with majority of revenue ramp coming in until late 2027. Then cpo comes out. $AAOI is a 1 year trade for me
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确认发布TA-35指数，其涨幅与TA-125相当。
@OShtark 是的，我在帖子中发布了 TA-35 指数。它的涨幅与 TA-125 指数大致相同。https://t.co/kvomzvijpS
英文原文
@OShtark Yes I posted the TA-35 index in the post. It’s up around the same amount as TA-125. https://t.co/kvomzvijpS
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以色列股市大涨，市场定价对伊“决定性胜利”预期。
以色列证券交易所实时市场上涨 8.85%。 本地指数今日也上涨 4.23%。 当导弹飞向以色列时，这看起来荒谬至极。 然而，市场可能正在定价“决定性胜利”的感知以及伊朗长期风险的降低。 https://t.co/3TVhXvLs8T
英文原文
Israel’s stock exchange is up 8.85% in live markets now. The local index is up 4.23% today as well. It looks absurd as missiles fly toward Israel. However, markets are likely pricing in the perception of a "decisive victory" and long-term risk reduction of Iran. https://t.co/3TVhXvLs8T
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对比中东股市停摆，质疑以色列是否为例外。
@thexanguy 我仍然认为这一观点成立。由于伊朗袭击了其基础设施，阿联酋/科威特曾全面暂停股市交易。此外还有 $TSE 的螺旋式下跌。也许以色列是罕见的例外？
英文原文
@thexanguy Still think it holds true. UAE/Kuwait had a total stock market halt since Iran hit their infrastructure. Then there’s the spiral of the $TSE. Maybe Israel is the rare exception?
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伊朗战争或消除以色列及关联股的生存折价，需进一步研究。
我也没料到这一点。也许伊朗战争的后果消除了相关股票如 $NBIS 以及以色列股票如 $ETOR 至 $VLN 的“生存折价因子”（existential discount factor）？ 或者情况是多方面的，因为国防在以色列股市中占很大权重。 鉴于这对我来说是新领域，仍在做更多研究。
英文原文
I was not expecting this as well. Maybe the implications of the Iran war removes Israel’s existential discount factor on correlated stocks like $NBIS and Israeli ones like $ETOR to $VLN? Or its multifaceted since defense makes up a large weighting of the Israel stock exchange. Still doing more research since this is new to me.
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建议追踪内存及云厂商预测而非宏观，利用隔夜波动获利。
我只想说，与其关注宏观数据，不如追踪内存价格涨幅和超大规模云服务商的预测可能更好。 宏观数据的影响主要是间接的，体现在能源成本（转嫁成本）以及流动性和波动性上。 话虽如此，隔夜数据往往会大幅夸大市场波动，因此可以利用这一点来获利。
英文原文
I would only say it might be better to track memory hikes and hyperscaler projections over macro. Consequences are mainly indirect in terms of energy costs (pass through cost) and just liquidity/volatility. That being said overnight does exaggerate movements a lot so could always take advantage of that
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NAND价格暴涨，SanDisk要求预付锁定供应。
对于 $SNDK 来说，这可能只是宏观因素，尤其是如果要求预付未来三年的款项的话 lol “自2025年下半年以来，NAND 合约价格已多轮翻倍，据报道过去六个月累计涨幅高达500%。此前，美国 NAND 制造商 SanDisk 要求下游客户全额预付以锁定未来一到三年的供应。”
英文原文
Might just be macro for $SNDK especially if there’s prepayment for three years ahead lol “Since the second half of 2025, NAND contract prices have doubled in multiple rounds, with cumulative increases reportedly reaching as high as 500% over the past six months. Earlier, U.S.-based NAND manufacturer SanDisk required downstream customers to prepay in full to secure supply for the next one to three years”
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AAOI营收预测惊人，高增长低估值，成光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 并不关心伊朗的战争局势。 这只光子学股票拥有令人惊讶的约 900% 营收增长爆发式预测： 到 2027 年中，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 将达到 45.3 亿美元，毛利率约为 40%。 再加上两位数方向性的串行接口 (SI) 供应短缺。 可能并不需要（担心这些宏观或供应链问题）。
英文原文
$AAOI does not concern itself with a war in Iran. The photonics stock with surprise ~900% revenue growth blowout projections to: $4.53B ARR by mid-2027, off ~40% margins. Coupled with double digit directional SI stuck. Might not need to be. https://t.co/qKReNvBMYh
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三星与海力士大幅上调DRAM价格，NAND涨500%，内存需求强劲。
据 Digitimes 今日报道，三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)大幅上调 DRAM 价格。 部分消息源自本周《首尔经济日报》的报道，其中指出： “客户可能需要接受比之前合同价格高出一倍以上的价格，才能获得 DRAM 配额”。 DRAM 价格的急剧上涨伴随着 NAND 价格的上涨，今日“群联(Phison)因 NAND 价格上涨 500% 而转向预付款模式”。 内存需求存在一个无情的黑洞。
英文原文
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly sharp DRAM price increases from Digitimes today. Part of source was the Seoul Economic Daily report this week that stated: “Customers may need to accept prices more than double their previous contract rates to receive DRAM allocations”. The sharp DRAM price hikes come with NAND price hikes as “Phison shifts to prepayments as NAND prices hike 500%” today. There is a relentless black hole on memory demand.
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Soitec对CPO至关重要，虽早但不可或缺
@beauty_oe 我觉得索伊特克（Soitec）现在投资还稍微有点早。所以我原本打算明年再投资。不过，对于预计在2028年左右普及的共封装光学(CPO)来说，它似乎将成为一个巨大的瓶颈（不可或缺的存在）！
英文原文
@beauty_oe ソイテック（Soitec）はまだ少し早すぎる気がします。なので、投資は来年にしようと思っていました。でも、2028年頃に普及するCPO（共同パッケージ光技術）にとっては、大きなボトルネック（不可欠な存在）になりそうですね！
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认为当前入场太早，暂不持仓，仅监控其他代工厂信号。
我目前没有持仓，因为我认为现在仍然太早。我不想仅仅因为两年后才会发生的事情就持有一个头寸。这与提前布局2028年比特币减半类似，现在开始有点太早了。也许提前6-8个月，比如2027年第二季度初。话虽如此，监控其他晶圆代工厂可能是一个很好的信号，但我个人还没有专门跟踪Soitec。
英文原文
Don’t have positions since I thought it’s still way too early. Don’t want to jut sit on something that’s happening 2Y later. Same with front running 2028 Bitcoin halving, starting now is a tad early. Maybe like 6M-8M in advance, like early q2 2027. That being said monitoring the other foundries are probably a good signal but I personally haven’t been tracking it yet for soitec in specific
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CPO瓶颈股估值低但受拖累，建议暂持或寻找其他机会。
智能手机及其他业务带来的传统拖累。 随后是巨大的资本支出周期，目前正为2027-2028年晚期的产能爬坡做准备。 所以可能更好的策略是将其作为记账头寸持有，明年年初再回来处理。除非市场开始提前抢跑。 14亿欧元的市值对于共封装光学(CPO)的功能性垄断瓶颈来说真的很便宜。但作为一名交易者，未来一年可能在其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
Legacy drag from smartphones and other businesses. Then massive capex cycle now to prepare for late 2027-2028 ramp. So might just be better off bookmaking it and coming back early next year. Unless markets start frontrunning it early. 1.4B euro MC is really cheap for functional monopoly bottleneck for cpo. But as a trader, probably better opportunities elsewhere for the next year
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Soitec是CPO关键瓶颈，预计2028年随CPO拐点迎来估值重估。
Soitec ($SLOIF) 是 $AXTI 在硅光子学领域的垄断性镜像标的。 基本上，它与共封装光学(CPO) 直接绑定，其拐点预计在 2027 年底至 2028 年。 对于 800G/1.6T 和 CPO 而言，没有 $AXTI 和 Soitec 很难实现： AXT 提供磷化铟(InP) Soitec 提供光子学绝缘体上硅(Photonics-SOI) 衬底。具有功能性垄断地位。 （Shin Etsu 在其授权下运营）->（英特尔、格芯、Tower） 但预计当 CPO 在 2028 年初触及拐点时，它们的估值将大幅重估。 然而，与 $IQE 类似，大量传统业务拖累影响着其股价。 对于 $AXTI，供应挤压正在发生。 对于 Soitec，可能早了 6 个月或一年，但不知道市场何时开始抢跑。 但这只是将其作为一个未来的瓶颈环节提出。
英文原文
Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is the monopoly silicon photonics mirror to $AXTI. Basically it’s directly tethered to CPO and its inflection point late 2027-2028 For 800g/1.6T and CPO, hard to really do it without $AXTI and Soitec: AXT for InP Soitec for photonics-soi substrates. Functional monopoly (Shin Etsy operates under their license) -> (Intel, Global Foundaties, Tower) But expect them to get rerated extremely hard early 2028 when CPO hits the inflection point. However similar to $IQE, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting their stock price. For $AXTI the supply squeeze is happening now. For Soitec might be 6 months or a year too early but don’t know when markets start frontrunning it. But just putting it out there as a future bottleneck.
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从半导体瓶颈向运行瓶颈的板块轮动逻辑合理。
@zephyr_z9 从半导体瓶颈(SeMI bottlenecks)板块轮动至运行瓶颈(Running bottlenecks)板块是合理的。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Rotation from semi bottlenecks into running bottlenecks makes sense
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Macronix 是 NOR Flash 最纯标的，需更陡峭涨幅才能重现 SNDK 走势。
我之前讨论过的 Macronix，主要涉及 NOR Flash（Nor 闪存）。由于它占据 30-35% 的市场份额，且市值（MC）仅为 67 亿美元，远低于其他竞争对手的 150 亿美元以上，因此它是该板块中最纯粹的标的。目前的涨幅相当温和，若要重现 $SNDK 的走势，其涨幅需要陡峭得多。
英文原文
Macronix I've talked about earlier on for NOR Flash. It's probably the most pure play out of the bunch since it's 30-35% of the market with a smaller MC of $6.7B compared to the others at $15B+ The hikes have been pretty modest so far, for it to pull a $SNDK, it will need to be a lot steeper.
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博主澄清无付费网站，警示外部链接骗局。
@Pearsonpc @Serenity 我没有任何付费网站或外部页面。那些很可能是骗局。
英文原文
@Pearsonpc @Serenity I don't have any paid sites or external page. Those are are likely scams.
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建议开通盈透证券账户以交易国际市场
@ramprasadenaik 开通盈透证券($IBKR)账户以获取国际市场交易权限
英文原文
@ramprasadenaik Get an $IBKR account for access to international markets
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NOR Flash涨价潮确认，GB200单机架成本激增，推荐宏碁与华邦。
NOR Flash 会是继 HBM/DRAM 之后的下一个内存供应瓶颈吗？ 近期，MCU（微控制器）、NOR Flash、KGD（裸晶）封装存储以及功率器件的价格上涨了 10% 至 80%。 涉及涨价的公司名单包括： - 华润微 - 中芯国际 - 北京君正 - 戈麦斯微电子 - 盈佳芯 - 兆易创新 - 欧姆龙 - ADI - 英飞凌 所有这些公司都提高了价格。更具体地说，中国的兆易创新将 MCU 和 NOR Flash 的价格提高了 15%–50%，普冉半导体也提高了 NOR Flash 的价格。 这证实了此前关于 $NVDA GB200 NVL72 系统的预测，即每个机架的 NOR 内容成本已超过 600 美元，并可能开始上调至 900 美元（增加 50%）。 投资者通常喜欢听到涨价的声音，因此对于相关敞口： - 宏碁半导体 (YTD: +153%) - 华邦电子 (YTD: +34.91%) 是该板块的两个最佳标的。 因为它们各自拥有 33-35% 的市场份额，尽管 TAM（总可寻址市场）较小。英飞凌等其他公司对于纯主题投资来说只是杯水车薪。
英文原文
Is NOR Flash the next memory supply squeeze from HBM/DRAM? Recently 10% to 80% hikes were made to: MCUs, NOR Flash, KGD package storage, and power devices recently. The list of companies spanning: - China Resources Microelectronics - SMIC Semiconductor - Belling - Goke Microelectronics - Yingjixin - Maxscend - Omron - ADI - Infineon have all increased prices. More specifically, China's Cmsemicon raised MCU and NOR Flash prices by 15%–50% and Puya Semiconductor raised NOR Flash prices. This helped confirm earlier projections regarding $NVDA GB200 NVL72 systems that NOR content per rack already exceeds $600 and could start hiking rates to $900 (+50% increase). Investors usually like to hear the sound of price hikes so for exposure: - Macronix (YTD: +153%) - Winbond (YTD: +34.91%) are the two best exposures for the segment. Since they both hold 33-35% of market share each, though a smaller TAM. Infineon and others look to a drop in the bucket for pure play exposure.
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建议等待 $XLU 回调且 IV 降至 14-16% 时入场。
@btc_overflow 我会等待回调（如果有的话）再买入 $XLU，并在行权价的隐含波动率(IV)降至 14-16% 左右时入场。 如果它继续上涨，你也不会损失什么，只是错过了众多机会中的一个。
英文原文
@btc_overflow I’d wait for a correction (if there is one) for $XLU and for IV on a strike to be around 14-16% to enter. If it keeps going up you don’t lose anything, just miss out on an opportunity among others.
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看好NBIS多业务高增长及分部价值，预期其现金流转正后估值重估。
$NBIS 是我在这批新云厂商中真正最看好的。情况很微妙，但他们本质上是由 5 家不同业务组成的公司，且均实现三位数的同比增长。我最看好其与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶出租车部门，以及 Clickhouse（他们持有约 1/4 股份），这两块未来估值很可能远超 150 亿美元。此外，其数据中心业务预计将在 2027 年 2 月报告前上线，带来约 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR)。我认为市场尚未充分反映其分部加总价值，但我预计在其低调建设阶段结束、资本支出 (Capex) 开始转化为自由现金流 (FCF) 后，Nebius 的估值将得到重估。
英文原文
$NBIS is my actually favorite Neocloud out of the bunch. It’s really nuanced but they actually are basically 5 different companies all scaling triple digits y/y. Biggest fan of their robotaxi division working with $UBER and Clickhouse would likely command higher valuations in the future than $15B (they own ~1/4th). This is on top of their DC business expected to come online and bring ~$7-9B ARR by Feb 2027 report. Don’t think sum of parts is priced in properly but I’d expect Nebius to be rerated after their silent buildout phase ends and they start turning capex to fcf
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不看好IREN因稀释风险，更信任NBIS管理层，静待时间验证。
我不看好做多 $IREN，除非他们停止 GPU 业务并转向纯数据中心托管(Colo)业务。现在的投资者将面临为了变现其 3GW 产能而进行的无休止稀释。话虽如此，它确实具有更高的潜在回报，但我个人更信任 $NBIS 的管理层。过去我在 $NBIS 与 $IREN 之间有过很多辩论，时间会证明谁是对的。
英文原文
Not a fan of $IREN as a long unless they stop doing GPU offerings and pivot to do pure colo. investors now will be met with endless dilution to monetize their 3GW capacity. That being said it does carry higher potential returns but I personally trust in $NBIS management more. I’ve had a lot of debates in the past between $NBIS vs $IREN but time will tell whose right
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CRWV大跌验证看空逻辑，警示新云债务风险差异。
这条推文经得起时间考验，$CRWV 过去一个月下跌约 28%。 我觉得最好的空头其实是多头投资者或波段交易者。 如果你看到 Coreweave 或 $CRCL 在 200 美元时的危险信号，与其回避，不如反向操作。 话虽如此，$NBIS 等其他股票正随着板块被算法性打压。 我一次又一次地注意到，并非所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)都是一样的。 - 一家新云服务商可能有数十亿美元的年度债务利息，损害自由现金流(FCF) - 另一家则可能没有……
英文原文
This aged well, $CRWV down ~28% in the past month. I feel like the best bears would actually be long investors or swing traders. If you see red flags, with Coreweave or $CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it. That being said, $NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector I’ve noticed this again and again, not all Neoclouds are built the same. - One Neocloud might have billions in yearly debt interest hurting FCF - The other Neocloud might not…
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建议等待更好入场点，长期看好AI推理与降息驱动的上涨。
@Edu4rdo26 如果你打算买入，建议等待更好的入场时机。1个月10.42%的回报率已经超过了其长期正常回报水平。但从长期来看，我预计其方向将向上，并有望迎来由AI推理(AI Inference)需求爆发和降息驱动的“一生一次”级别的行情。
英文原文
@Edu4rdo26 If you do, probably wait for a better entry. 10.42% 1M return is already more than what it would normally return across a long time. But long term I expect it to be directionally up with a once-a-lifetime type run from AI inference usage and rate cuts