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引用评论并调侃CRCL股价从未跌破50美元。
@swisssong 那天的评论是这样的（抱歉单独拎出这个人）。 旁白：$CRCL 从未跌破 $50 https://t.co/mLXzznBuDK
英文原文
@swisssong Comment of that day was this (sorry for singling this person out). Narrator: $CRCL never dipped below $50 https://t.co/mLXzznBuDK
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CRCL案例证明基本面重于图表，关注USDC供应与政策。
$CRCL 是一个很好的教训，说明了基本面比股价/图表更重要。需要关注的是 USDC 供应量、利率以及《Clarity Act》。而不是情绪是否糟糕，或者 XYZ 技术分析(TA)是否说它会涨到 30 美元。X 上的所有人都在 200 美元时争相买入，但在 50 美元时却退缩了。
英文原文
$CRCL is a good lesson why fundamentals matter more than stock price/charts. Things to watch are USDC supply, interest rates, and Clarity Act. Not whether or not sentiment is bad or if the XYZ TA says it’s going to $30. Everyone on X was rushing to buy this at $200 but chickened out at $50.
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建议在高估值时采用分批建仓策略以平滑成本。
@log289 如果某只股票接近历史最高价(ATH)，最好学会进行成本平均(Cost Average)操作。（例如：若持仓从20%增至30%时股价下跌8%，若再下跌15%则持有剩余仓位）。大致是这个思路。
英文原文
@log289 If something’s near ATHs it’s good to learn to cost average. (Eg. 20% position -> 30% position if it drops 8% -> rest if it drops 15%). Something along those lines
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建议持有$AEHR股票加融资，避免高IV的LEAPS期权。
@demarscrypto 如果你想要杠杆，就坚持持有股票并配合少量融资，$AEHR 的 LEAPS（长期期权）隐含波动率(IV)实在太高了。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Just stick with shares and slight margin if you want leverage, IV for $AEHR leaps are way too high.
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$AEHR获连续订单，有望迎来从投机小盘股到量产重估的拐点。
感觉 $AEHR（12亿美元市值）正接近从投机性小盘股向大规模订单增长的拐点。就在上周，他们又收到了一笔1400万美元的订单。今天，他们的硅光子学(silicon photonics)客户又追加了一笔后续订单。一旦他们的客户/超大规模数据中心(hyperscalers)转向“大规模量产”和“批量生产”，很可能会触发 $AEHR 的巨大重估周期。鉴于今年每周都有订单新闻，这种情况发生的可能性似乎更大。
英文原文
Feels like $AEHR ($1.2B) is close to hitting its inflection point from a speculative small cap to mass order ramp. Just last week they received another $14M order. And today another follow-up order from their silicon photonics customer. Once their customers/hyperscalers transition to “high-volume manufacturing" and "volume production”, would likely trigger a massive rerating cycle for $AEHR. Feels more likely for it to happen than not given the weekly news of orders this year.
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建议战争期间避免使用杠杆，警惕短期市场下跌风险。
@ogytaku 通常发生战争时，市场短期内都会下跌。 这段时间千万不要使用杠杆，尤其是在下行趋势中。
英文原文
@ogytaku Usually there’s a short term drop when there’s war anyway. Just don’t use leverage during this time, especially on the way down
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澄清两只股票分别在美国OTC和巴黎交易所上市
@the_real_VdB 是的，一个是美国场外交易市场(OTC)，另一个在巴黎证券交易所上市
英文原文
@the_real_VdB Yes, one is US OTC the other is on the Paris stock exchange
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看好某CPO垄断股，虽短期波动大但具西方供应链优势。
@Jap97Taki 是的.. 我喜欢我的股票每天上下波动 20% 带来的肾上腺素飙升感。 这只股票很可能将经历一段超级无聊的等待期，直到共封装光学(CPO) 临近时进行重估。 但它们是真正的单一垄断者（而非像 $AXTI / $SUM 那样的双寡头）+ 西方供应链。
英文原文
@Jap97Taki Yeah.. I like the adrenaline rush of my stocks going up and down 20% a day. This one is likely going to be a super boring wait for re-rating as CPO approaches. But they're a genuine singular monopoly (rather than duopoly like AXT/Sumitomo) + western supply chain too.
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看好AXTI，认为其在光子学领域仍是关键瓶颈。
@Long311203 是的，我个人更喜欢 $AXTI，因为它们是当前的瓶颈，并且对于任何与光子学(Photonics)相关的领域来说，它们仍将是一个瓶颈。
英文原文
@Long311203 Yes I personally like $AXTI miles better since they're a current bottleneck and will still be one for anything photonics related.
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买入Soitec需忍受漫长等待，NVDA投资CPO相关股或成催化剂。
@OnlyGB 我最终确实买入了 Soitec，但如果市场不打算现在就对共封装光学(CPO)进行定价，这将是一段极其痛苦的等待期。我觉得 $NVDA 投资 $COHR 和 $LITE 可能是一个微小的催化剂。
英文原文
@OnlyGB I did end up buying Soitec, but it's going to be an incredibly painful wait unless markets want to price in CPO now. I feel like $NVDA investing in $COHR and $LITE might have been a tiny catalyst.
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看好Soitec在CPO基板垄断地位，认为其具备2-3倍潜力。
我觉得如果人们有耐心等一年，Soitec ($SLOIF) 相当于免费赠送 2-3 倍的涨幅？ 他们在共封装光学(CPO) 基板领域拥有真正的垄断地位。 很多人关注 Shin-Etsu，但他们只是获得了 Soitec 的技术授权。 它不像 $AXTI 那样是当前面临的材料瓶颈，而是需求瓶颈（目前由于 CPO 尚未规模化，他们还没有需求）。 但我们都清楚，需求将在 2027 年底到 2028 年到来。 主要问题在于机会成本，但这只是市场何时想要提前布局的问题。在我看来，这仍然优于指数回报？
英文原文
I feel like Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is a free 2-3x if people have the patience to wait a year? They're a genuine monopoly over CPO for substrates. Lot of folks looking at Shin-Etsu but they're just licensing Soitec's stuff. It's not a current materials bottleneck like $AXTI, but a demand one (they have none right now since CPO hasn't scaled up). But we all know it's coming later in 2027 -> 2028. Main thing is opportunity cost, but just a matter of when markets want to frontrun it. Still better than your index returns imo?
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警告避免杠杆工具，利用EWY期权IV错配进行套利。
对 $KORU 零敞口。我一直警告人们不要触碰3倍杠杆工具，原因正是如此。 我确实持有 $EWY 的看涨期权，主要是作为隐含波动率(IV)套利交易，因为做市商(MM)将其错误定价为32%的IV。 股价每日上下波动7-13%是严重错误定价的证据，并应受益于维加(Vega)扩张。
英文原文
Zero exposure to $KORU. I've been warning people not to touch 3x leveraged instruments for this exact reason. I do have $EWY long calls mainly as a IV arbitrage play as MM's mispriced this at 32% IV. Stock moving up and down 7-13% a day is evidence they heavily mispriced it, and should benefit from vega expansion.
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AI板块短期抛售或修复，真正崩盘风险源于内存需求降及云厂商缩减资本开支。
是的，确实出现了相当程度的抛售，但我预计这些股票最终会被买回。然而，我认为导致真正崩盘的主要原因将是：结构性内存需求下降；超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）缩减资本支出（Capex）预期。而非那些最终转嫁给超大规模云厂商的运营支出（Opex）成本增加。
英文原文
Yep, there's quite a bit selloff, but I do expect it to get bought back in due time. However I see the main reason for an actual crash would be: > Structural memory demand decreasing > Hyperscalers projecting less capex. Not increased opex costs that end up getting passed onto hyperscalers.
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强调交易应基于基本面而非情绪。
@LaminarRed 我不基于情绪进行交易，更关注基本面(Fundamentals)。
英文原文
@LaminarRed I don't trade off emotions, care more about fundamentals.
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成本将转嫁云厂商，内存价格看涨，基本面主导市场。
主要观点是市场正在定价成本上升（如原油、LNG），但可能忽略了这些成本会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，因为他们正在争夺产能分配。当然，情况是多方面的，涉及可能的货币贬值、获利了结以及去杠杆。但最终，自由现金流(FCF)、盈利等基本面才是最重要的。我不认为SK海力士和三星不会转嫁成本并进一步推高内存价格。内存需求也不像2022年那样在消费/笔记本领域出现下滑。
英文原文
The main thing was that markets were pricing increased costs eg. crude, LNG, but they're probably missing that it would just get passed onto hyperscalers as they battle for allocation. But of course it's multifaceted, with possible currency devaluation, profit taking, then deleveraging. But in the end fundamentals regarding FCF, earnings, and others are what matters most. And I don't see a world where SK Hynix, Samsung don't pass on costs and hike memory costs more. Memory demand is also not on a downturn like 2022 for consumer/laptop segments.
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伊朗袭击致LNG暴涨引发韩股暴跌，但AI需求强劲使三星/SK海力士可转嫁成本，视为买入机会。
关于 $EWY / KOSPI 暴跌以及这是否是三星/SK海力士的买入机会的思考： 这看起来是一个明确的买入机会。 尤其是因为投资者误解了2026年并非2022年（俄乌冲突）的局面。AI从根本上改变了内存需求，与2022年消费电子低迷时期不同，当时三星/SK海力士不得不自行承担运营支出(OPEX)。 韩国历史上最大单日跌幅的主要催化剂是伊朗无人机袭击卡塔尔能源公司(Ras Laffan)综合体。 卡塔尔约占全球液化天然气(LNG)供应的~20%。 结果： -> 荷兰TTF（欧洲天然气）：+46% -> 亚洲现货LNG：+39% -> 美国天然气：+4.16%（正常） LNG飙升是下跌的催化剂，因为韩国严重依赖进口LNG，暴露度极高。 出于对通胀性能源冲击的恐惧，投资者激进抛售韩国科技股，叠加10倍杠杆三星/SK海力士的去杠杆效应。 导致： -> 三星电子下跌9.79%。 -> SK海力士股价暴跌11.12%。 -> $EWY（韩国期货）今日下跌14.49%。 人们担心重演2022年俄乌战争导致LNG价格上涨，韩国电力公社(KEPCO)停止吸收亏损后，韩国工业电价上涨约70%。 仅2022年，三星国内设施就消耗了约28,000 GWh的电力。 电价上涨使三星年度运营支出(OPEX)增加约2万亿韩元（超过14亿美元），SK海力士增加超过1万亿韩元。 这种前所未有的运营支出激增发生在最糟糕的时机。 2022年底，半导体行业进入残酷的周期性低迷。后疫情时代PC和智能手机需求暴跌，导致DRAM和NAND闪存严重供过于求。 然而，2026年完全不同： 与2022年低迷期面临能源成本上升相比： AI对内存的需求完全史无前例。27日有报道称三星/SK海力士再次上调DRAM价格。 $SNDK的NAND需求如此之高，以至于产能分配需要提前3年预订。 需求看不到尽头，直到2028年都没有缓解迹象。 相比之下，2022年笔记本电脑和智能手机的消费端已经面临低迷，内存制造商无法转嫁成本（并承担了巨额OPEX账单）。这导致了上次的大幅修正。 由于2026年全球AI芯片短缺如此严重，他们将无缝地将高昂的公用事业账单转嫁给供应链下游。 由于供应严重受限，三星和SK海力士主导市场条款。大型科技超大规模云服务商（微软、Meta、Google、Amazon）陷入AI军备竞赛。他们目前对价格高度不敏感，优先考虑确保供应量而非讨价还价。 因此，这看起来是一个明确的买入机会，尤其是鉴于预测范围： 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对三星： 2026年：~1820亿美元 vs. ~2108亿美元 2027年：~2351亿美元 vs. ~3337亿美元 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对SK海力士： 2026年：~1329亿美元 vs. ~1905亿美元 2027年：~1670亿美元 vs. ~3128亿美元 此次抛售看起来像是出于对2022年俄乌冲突的恐惧以及10倍杠杆工具带来的极端杠杆进行的即时去风险化。 但与2022年不同，当时笔记本电脑和消费需求已经低迷，LNG飙升导致三星/SK海力士买单： 这次成本转嫁给了超大规模云服务商，因为需求太高。 人们总是将KOSPI比作白银，但区别在于前者拥有惊人的运营收入，在牛市情景下，SK海力士等公司两年的收入 alone 就会超过其市值。 三星/SK海力士的下跌看起来是一个明确的买入机会，因为他们的运营收入可能会轻松超越任何短期波动。
英文原文
Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix: This looks like a clear buying opportunity. Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts. AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs. The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex. Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply. Results: -> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46% -> Asian Spot LNG: + 39% -> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine) The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG. Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix. Sending -> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%. -> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%. and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today. Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses. In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity. The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix. This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time. In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash. However, 2026 is completely different: Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn: AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix. Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance. There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028. Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time. Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain. Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling. As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from: Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments. But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill: This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high. People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix. The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.
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视战况决定LASR前景，若和平则削减国防敞口
@FairValueHunter 每个问题的答案都是“视情况而定”。$LASR 的最佳情景是战争持续，且以色列的“铁束”(Iron Beam) 系统持续拦截来自伊朗代理人的导弹。否则，如果突然进入和平时期，我会普遍削减国防板块的敞口。
英文原文
@FairValueHunter Every answer is it depends. Best case scenario for $LASR is if the war drags on and Israel’s Iron Beam keeps beaming down missiles from Iran proxies. Otherwise if there’s suddenly peacetime, would cut defense exposure in general
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RPI 3月财报见需求，AI智能体热潮助其营收增长。
谢谢！$RPI 的走向尚不明朗，3 月财报后我们将看到更多关于实际需求的可见性。感觉我每天都在看到 OpenClaw 的帖子，只要 AI 智能体(AI Agent)保持流行且需要用于编排的独立硬件，它就会获得收入顺风。
英文原文
Thanks! No clue where $RPI heads, we’ll get to see more visibility into actualized demand after earnings in March. Feels like I’m still seeing openclaw posts every day so as long as AI agent are popular + isolated hardware for orchestration is needed, will get it a revenue tailwind
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看好RKLB和LASR，建议基于硬核技术长期持有。
回想起来，本应增加更多定向能武器(EDW)的敞口。尤其是随着美国“金穹顶”激光防御系统为 $LASR 带来近乎指数级增长的潜在市场规模(TAM)。我只看到两家公司：$RKLB 股价在10美元区间，拥有可重复使用火箭和无限的太空 TAM；以及 $LASR，其激光束能“砰砰”击落高超音速导弹和火箭。我会像持有迷因股一样买入并长期持有它们，纯粹基于其原始、纯粹的硬核技术。昨天看到 Nlight 激光束从“铁束”系统击落火箭的视频，确实起到了助推作用。
英文原文
Looking back, should have had more Energy Directed Weapon exposure. Especially with America’s Golden Dome laser defense giving $LASR practically exponential TAM. There’s only two companies I’ve seen: $RKLB back in the 10’s for reusable rockets and infinite space TAM And $LASR for laser beams that go pew pew to hypersonic missiles and rockets That I would buy and hold like a meme stock just based on raw, unadulterated badass tech. It definitely helps that I’ve seen videos of Nlight laser beams shoot down rockets from the Iron Beam yesterday.
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光子学成AI新范式，机构抢配上游瓶颈，供应链迎重估。
两大光子学外延片晶圆厂： - $IQE（$LITE 的供应商）本周上涨 62.53% - Landmark 本周上涨 23.95%。 它们都正处于强劲上涨势头中。 两者今天迄今均上涨 7-9%。 市场可能正在定价由 $AAOI 财报发出的光收发器繁荣信号，以及 Nvidia 对 Coherent 和 Lumentum 的投资。 光子学是人工智能在可预见的未来中的新范式转变，机构投资者正积极重新配置到光子学供应链的上游瓶颈环节。 市场通常具有前瞻性，因此如果像 $AAOI 这样的公司预测一年后的年化经常性收入(ARR) 为 45 亿美元，那么 AAOI 及其整个供应链现在就会开始重新定价。
英文原文
The two largest photonics epiwafer fabs - $IQE ( $LITE supplier) is up 62.53% this week - Landmark is up 23.95% this week. And they’re both on a tear. Both are up 7-9% today so far. Markets are probably pricing in the optical transceiver boom signaled from $AAOI earnings and Nvidia’s investment into Coherent and Lumentum. Photonics is a new paradigm shift for AI for the foreseeable future and institutions are aggressively repositioning into upstream bottlenecks in the photonics supply chains. Markets are typically forward looking, so if companies like $AAOI project $4.5B ARR a year from now, then AAOI along with the entire supply chain will start to get repriced in now.
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光子学成AI新范式，机构抢跑推升相关股价。
光子学是AI的新架构范式。未来几年做多。 $NVDA 前几天刚投资40亿美元帮助 $COHR 和 $LITE 扩大规模，且共封装光学(CPO)等技术预计将在2028年放量。 这就是为什么所有光子学股票每天上涨10%，因为机构正在抢跑并重新配置仓位。
英文原文
Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI. Go long for next few years. $NVDA basically just invested $4B the other day to help $COHR and $LITE scale up and things like cpo are expected to ramp in 2028. This is why all the photonics stocks are going up 10% a day because institutions are frontrunning and repositioning.
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$EWY 波动率异常，期权受 Vega 扩张利好，或唤醒做市商。
是的，如果 $EWY > 每天上下波动 7-10% > 比隐含波动率(IV)高达 93% 的量子公司更剧烈 > 且其 IV 定价比几乎不动的 $MRVL 还低 10% 尽管标的价格下跌，看涨期权(Call)仍受益于 Vega 扩张。这一事件可能会唤醒做市商(MMs) 对于试图在暴跌后加杠杆做多的人来说这很糟糕，但现有头寸受益于 IV 扩张。
英文原文
Yes if $EWY > goes up and down 7-10% a day > more volatile than quantum companies at 93% IV > and IV was priced 10% less than $MRVL that barely moves Calls benefit from Vega expansion despite underlying prices going down. This event will probably wake the MMs up It sucks for people trying to go long on leverage off the drop, but existing positions benefit from iv expansion
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韩股波动提供买入三星和SK海力士的机会
三星和SK海力士的10倍杠杆就这样没了。我之前说过，随着新的杠杆工具推出，$EWY和KOSPI将极度波动。最好的获利方式是利用错配的波动率，尤其是因为韩国市场基本上由这两只股票主导。日内下跌10%后，隐含波动率(IV)可能会大幅飙升。这次下跌主要源于宏观和流动性头寸调整，因为下跌发生在DRAM/NAND涨价报道之后。主要逆风是能源成本，但与往年压缩利润率不同，三星和SK海力士拥有完全的定价权，此次可以将成本转嫁。韩国科技巨头的营业利润强劲，这似乎是买入被杠杆投机者抛售筹码的机会。
英文原文
And… there goes all the 10x leverage Samsung and Sk Hynix. I said earlier that $EWY and KOSPI would be extremely volatile with the new leveraged instruments. And the best way to profit was off the mispriced volatility. Especially because it’s basically two stocks. IV will probably be hiked quite a bit up l after the 10% intraday drop. This seemed mainly macro and liquidity positioning as the drop followed reports of dram/nand price hikes. The main headwind was energy costs but unlike previous years where this compressed margins, Samsung, SK Hynix have complete pricing power and can pass through costs this time around. Operating income of the Korean tech giants are strong and seems like an opportunity to buy off all the leveraged degens.
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AXTI垄断光子学供应链，受益于AI建设，有望从25亿涨至200亿市值。
$AXTI 掌控着光子学（Photonics）AI 基础设施建设所需的供应链。其市值仅为 25 亿美元。 如果明年它的交易价格达到 200 亿美元或更高，我也不会感到惊讶。 $NVDA 今天展示了光子学在未来几年中的关键作用。如果 $AXTI 愿意，它可以在第二天对新合同涨价 500%，而来自 $LITE 或 $COHR 等公司都会为了锁定配额而欣然支付。 他们在日本的主要竞争对手受到了中国的出口管制，未来可能会面临产能紧张的局面。 我很乐意持有一个服务于万亿美元 AI 建设、市值 25 亿美元的垄断企业。
英文原文
$AXTI controls the supply chain needed for the AI buildout for photonics. At a $2.5B MC. I would not be surprised if it were trading at $20B or more next year. $NVDA today showed how critical photonics are for the next few years. If AXT wanted to AXT could price hike 500% the next day for new contracts and everyone from $LITE or $COHR would happily pay it to secure allocation. Their main competitor over in Japan got export controls by China and will likely be capacity strained in the future. I would happy sleep on a $2.5b monopoly for the trillion dollar AI buildout
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英伟达注资光子学公司后AXTI大涨，凸显其作为关键材料供应商的垄断地位。
天哪，这个论点或许是今年 X 上最传奇的一个。 在英伟达(Nvidia)今天向光子学玩家 $LITE 和 $COHR 注入 40 亿美元后，$AXTI 现在涨到了 46.7 美元。 猜猜谁控制着所有材料？ 匿名者，你听进去了吗？https://t.co/7Sm08hOQPA
英文原文
Holy ****, this thesis was perhaps the most legendary one on X this year. $AXTI is now at $46.7 after Nvidia funneled $4B into photonics players $LITE and $COHR today. Guess who controls all the materials? Did you listen anon? https://t.co/7Sm08hOQPA
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博主感谢粉丝帮助起步并称赞其谦虚。
@pepemoonboy 谢谢！我会一直感激你帮助我在 X 平台上起步。我觉得你只是太谦虚了。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks! I’ll always appreciate your help getting started on X. I think you’re just being too humble yourself
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根据催化剂远近，权衡长期与短期资本利得税策略。
如果催化剂（如光子学 Photonics）尚需时日，我倾向于追求长期资本利得税优惠。例如，我目前持有一笔 $AXTI 头寸，未实现收益约为 450%。但如果出现重大事件（如格陵兰和平协议）可能损害你的国防多头头寸（如持有 $ONDS），那么将约 80% 的收益作为短期资本利得税结算，可能比经历“过山车”回到盈亏平衡点再免税更好。
英文原文
I try and aim for long term capital gains tax if the catalyst is far enough (eg. Photonics). For example I’m sitting on unrealized ~450% return one of my $AXTI positions. But if there’s a major event like Greenland peace deal that would hurt your defense longs like $ONDS if you had it. Then just taking short term capital gains on like a 80% return is probably better than round tripping to breakeven then paying no tax on that
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看好光子、存储、电力及国防板块，分享具体标的及轮动策略。
光子学、存储、电力和国防可能是目前势头最强的前3大板块。 其他如先进封装或散热等板块，恕我直言，你无法获得像前四大板块那样严重的瓶颈效应或回报。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 是我最看好的两个光子学标的。 三星和 SK 海力士是存储领域的两大首选。 关于电力，我之前已经说过 $XLU，受益于降息+电网现代化+超大规模云厂商推理需求。 然后是国防，可能是 $LASR 等，因为伊朗冲突是最大的催化剂之一。（并持仓直到和平时期到来） 我通常轮动操作约30只股票，所以像 $RDDT 这样的股票我在做波段交易，而像 $RPI 这样我之前提过的股票，我只是作为低仓位的备用持仓，以防我的逻辑被证实正确。 其中很大一部分是在顺势而为。
英文原文
Photonics, Memory, Power, and Defense are probably the top 3 momentum sectors right now. There’s others like advanced packaging or thermal but you won’t get to the severe bottleneck or returns as top 4 imo. $AAOI and $AXTI are top two favorite photonic plays. Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays. Power I’ve already said $XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference. Then defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts. (And hanging around until there’s peacetime) I usually rotate around 30 or so stocks, so one others like $RDDT I’ve been swing trading and others I’ve mentioned in the past like $RPI I just hold on the side with less concentration in case my thesis turns out right. Large part of it is riding the momentum.
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通过深挖上游供应链瓶颈及财务验证寻找投资机会
这只是在尽可能上游寻找瓶颈环节。几个月前我发现 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 物料清单(BOM)的重要组成部分时，它被认为非常早期。自那以来它已经翻倍。但大多数人止步于此，没有尝试寻找谁为 Lite 提供外延晶圆(epiwafers)？或者谁提供磷化铟(InP)衬底？其中很多是关系映射中的1+1，然后了解财务状况以判断尽管处于供应链瓶颈，它是否仍是一个真正的好多头标的。
英文原文
It’s just bottleneck hunting as upstream as you can go. Even $LITE was considered really early few months ago when I found out it was a large part of $GOOGL TPU BOM. Since then it’s already doubled. But most people stop there and then don’t try and find who supplies epiwafers for lite? Or who supplies the InP substrates? Lot of it is 1+1 in relational mapping, then knowing financials to see if it’s an actual good long despite being part of a supply chain chokepoint
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博主自嘲父母投资眼光更好，$PL涨幅远超其持有的$AXTI。
我爸妈其实是比我更好的投资者，哈哈。也许部分原因是基因？ 我爸一直告诉我他当时在$1.7时有多喜欢$PL。我并不太相信地理空间智能(geospatial intelligence)。但这只股票最终上涨了约16倍。 这会跑赢我的$AXTI收益。
英文原文
My parents are actually better investors than I am lol. Maybe part of it is genetics? My dad kept telling me how much he liked $PL back at $1.7. I didn’t really believe in geospatial intelligence. But the stock ended up going up like 16 times. Would have beaten my $AXTI returns.