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认为 Soitec 的重估空间比别的名字更大
@zzzpw4a 分散投资当然能降低风险。 集中配置通常更容易拿到更高回报。 在我看来，$SOI 由于起点更低，重估空间还更大。
英文原文
@zzzpw4a Diversification is always good for lower risk. Concentration is better for higher returns. IMO $SOI has more room to be re-rated given its starting point.
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感谢媒体覆盖 Soitec，并确认自己的核心论点
这次终于感谢 MarketScreener 对 $SOI 的真实报道。 文章写道： “在专门讨论 Soitec 的帖子里，作者提出了几个论点。他认为，该集团可能受益于 CPO（共封装光学）的发展，而 CPO 是为伴随人工智能和数据中心崛起而设计的一种光子架构。根据他的说法，Soitec 在该技术所用的某些 SOI 衬底上拥有近乎垄断的地位，如果光子技术被大规模采用，这一优势可能变得具有战略意义。该投资者还提到，他认为估值水平偏低，并相信到 2027 年，市场可能会开始提前布局一个对光子技术有前景的周期。” 这其实就是我原来的 thesis，没有多余修饰。 上一次 FT 和 Bloomberg 报道我的 $RPI 论点时，他们莫名其妙给贴上“meme stock”的标签，还硬加了不少我根本没说过的话，直接带来负面情绪。 不过话说回来： $SOI 基本上是 CPO 衬底层上的虚拟垄断。 未来一两年我会继续持有，因为我预计它会成为 $NVDA 主导的下一轮架构起量中的最大受益者。
英文原文
Thank you MarketScreener for actual coverage of $SOI this time. The article writes: “In the post dedicated to Soitec, the author puts forward several arguments. He believes that the group could benefit from the development of CPO (co-packaged optics), a photonic architecture designed to accompany the rise of artificial intelligence and data centers. According to him, Soitec would have a quasi-monopolistic position on certain SOI substrates used in this technology, an advantage that could become strategic if photonics is adopted on a large scale. The investor also mentions a valuation level that he considers low and believes that the market could begin to position itself ahead of a promising cycle for photonics by 2027” This was exactly the thesis, no extra fluff. Last time media from FT and Bloomberg covered my thesis on $RPI, they labeled it a “meme-stock” out of nowhere. With many outlets straight up adding words never stated, which triggered negative sentiment. That being said: $SOI is a virtual monopoly over the substrate layer for CPO. I plan to hold my positions over the next year or two, as I expect it to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming architectural ramp spearheaded by $NVDA.
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认为方向性做空已被可转债套利部分对冲
@r700cancer 大多数都是方向性做空，已经算进可转债套利里了。 而且利用率也有 80%。
英文原文
@r700cancer Most are directional shorts, factored in the convertible arbitrage. 80% utilized too. https://t.co/Mxj1QOsQny
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LWLG虽与TSEM整合重要，但从零收入和投机角度看风险较高
我已经研究过$LWLG了。对我个人来说，没有披露任何财务条款，而且这只是一个整合合作关系。所以从零收入角度来看太投机了，像Soitec这样的公司已经通过供应链把产品卖给$NVDA，价值也没比这高多少。但人们可以自由承担这个风险。不过话说回来，$TSEM的整合对他们的公司来说是非常重要的。
英文原文
Already looked into $LWLG. For me personally, there’s no disclosed financial terms and it’s an integration partnership. So too speculative off zero revenue, companies like Soitec already pass through supply to $NVDA and aren’t worth that much more. But people are free to take that risk. That being said the $TSEM integration is extremely material for their company.
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从基本面角度看 HIMS，但空头挤压风险很高
我一直想从基本面角度聊 $HIMS。 但有一点必须强调： $HIMS 的方向性空头现在像被困住了。 股价已经涨了 64.15%，到 26.5 美元了（虽然仍比 70 多美元的高点低）。 与此同时，空头持仓却增加到了创纪录的 41.6%。 这可能会形成剧烈的反馈回路，因为空头会越来越浮亏。 不过，这一切都取决于股价能否继续被买盘和基本面改善推高；只有这样，他们才会被迫平仓。 否则如果价格横盘，他们可以在很长时间里继续维持空头头寸（借券成本也低），然后慢慢回补。 话虽如此，我个人还是在场，挺期待看看 $HIMS 能交出什么： 一方面是最近类似 $META 的全球并购扩张； 另一方面是类似 $HOOD 的交叉销售潜在收入机会。 随着 $HIMS 在 $NVO 意外合作之后基本面快速改善，我个人真的觉得它有机会创造历史。
英文原文
I try to talk about $HIMS from a fundamental standpoint. But this cannot be understated: $HIMS directional shorts look trapped. The stock price is now up 64.15% to $26.5 (still down from highs of $70s). While short interest increased to record highs of 41.6%. There may be a violent feedback loop as short positions go more underwater. However; this is contingent on the underlying stock going up from buying pressure and increasing fundamentals. In order for their positions get liquidated. Otherwise, if prices stagnates, they can leave their short sales in for extended periods of time (low borrow rate) and slowly buy to cover. That being said, I'm personally along for the ride and looking forward to seeing what $HIMS can deliver: Both from their recent $META-like global acquisitions spree + $HOOD-like cross selling latent revenue opportunities. With $HIMS rapidly improving fundamentals, from the surprise $NVO partnership: I personally see a real opportunity for $HIMS to make history.
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认为 TSEM 可能重估到 350 亿美元市值
@PhotonCap 哦对，我很喜欢 $TSEM。 我觉得它有机会重估到 350 亿美元市值，大概是现在的 2.5 倍。 感觉只是时间问题，也许再过一年半左右？
英文原文
@PhotonCap Oh yeah I like $TSEM. I think it could get rerated to $35B MC which is like 2.5x from here. Feels like a matter of time, maybe another year and a half?
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解释自己喜欢用熟悉标的帮助读者理解
@PhotonCap 没错，我确实很喜欢 $TSEM。 我会尽量把内容讲得让读者能看懂，所以我会拿像 $TSM 这样的熟悉标的来做类比。 外面术语已经够多了。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yep I really liked $TSEM. I try to make things understandable for readers by drawing comparisons to things they know like $TSM. Tons of jargon out there
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把整条光子供应链都买下来并不奇怪
@demarscrypto 如果你认为 AI 的新范式就是光子化，那把整条光子供应链都买下来其实没什么问题。 衬底：$AXTI、$SOI 组装 / 激光 / 收发器 / 供应链：$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR 晶圆厂：$TSEM 这些就是我喜欢的名字。
英文原文
@demarscrypto There's nothing wrong with buying the entire photonics supply chain if you see it being the new paradigm of AI. Substrates: $AXTI, $SOI Assembly/Laser/Transceivers/supply chain: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR Foundry: $TSEM Were the names I've liked.
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更喜欢 SOI 的弹性，但也看好 TSEM 的去风险化
@AtlasShrug1 我也更偏好 $SOI，因为它的上行空间更大。 不过，$TSEM 体量更大，而且我觉得它因为产能积压和 $NVDA 的双重支撑，已经明显去风险了。 而且我也看到它未来两年会强劲复合增长，所以就在这个位置做多了。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 I prefer $SOI as well, much higher upside. However, $TSEM is much larger player but I see it being very de-risked from both backlogged capacity + $NVDA. And I do see this strongly compounding over the next two years so I went long around here.
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看多 Tower Semi 作为光子代工层的非对称机会
我做多 $TSEM，把它看成光子领域里的 $TSM。 我最看好的两只 CPO 标的是 $SOI 和 Tower Semi。 考虑到下周 $NVDA GTC 会有关于新光子架构的催化，我预计 Tower Semi 会迎来很强的催化。 Nvidia 上个月已经直接和 Tower 合作扩展 1.6T 硅光，这几乎就是在给 GTC 提示，随后很可能推动下游玩家采用它。 而现在，Tower 已经是 1.6T SiPh PIC 的领先供应商，也是规模化 CPO 架构的主要代工厂（另一个是 GlobalFoundries）。 根据我的前瞻估算： 2028 年前瞻 PE 约为 16.8 倍到 18.1 倍。 （Tower 目标到 2028 年实现 28.4 亿美元收入，经营利润率约 31.7%，净利润约 7.5 亿美元。） 要注意的是，他们计划中的 SiPh 产能已有 70% 以上被预订到 2028 年了，而光子业务甚至还没真正起量。 所以我预计，随着光子产能极度扩张以及分配价格上调，而这些还没被模型完全计入，Tower 的盈利会明显超预期。 另外，$TSEM 因为 70% 产能已被预订，实际上风险已经大幅下降。 它的市值之所以还低，很大程度上是因为它是光子供应链里非常冷门的上游玩家。 但我预计 $NVDA GTC 会成为把它推向溢价估值的催化剂。 我做多 $TSEM，是把它当成上游光子代工层的非对称上行标的。
英文原文
I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics. My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi. Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week: I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst. Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it. And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries) From my forward est: 2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x (Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit) The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet. So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections. Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain. But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations. I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.
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补充说如果周一问会把 AXTI 也算进去
@Meatusmax @jaegerjaque7 他们是今天才问的。 $AXTI 已经是历史新高了，要是周一问我，我当时就会把它算进去。
英文原文
@Meatusmax @jaegerjaque7 They said today. $AXTI is all time high, if they asked me Monday I would have included it
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列出自己最喜欢的一篮子名字
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI、$AAOI、SK 海力士、$RDDT、$HIMS
英文原文
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI, $AAOI, SK Hynix, $RDDT, $HIMS
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认为 IREN 上行受 60 亿 ATM 限制，NBIS 融资结构更好
不是说 $IREN 会崩。 更准确地说，短中期里 IREN 的上行空间会被 60 亿美元 ATM 限制住。 如果你要投 IREN，最好等现有持有人被高达 60 亿美元的卖压稀释得差不多之后，再去做多。 如果你追求股权升值，$NBIS 的资本开支融资结构要好得多。
英文原文
It’s not that $IREN will crash. It’s moreso short-medium term IREN’s upside is capped due to the $6B ATM. If you’re investing in IREN it’s better to wait after existing holders get diluted to oblivion from up to $6B in selling pressure, then go long after. If you’re chasing equity appreciation, $NBIS has a much superior capex financing structure.
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认为那条消息大概确实有新闻价值
@xT1T00 看起来确实算新闻吧。
英文原文
@xT1T00 Guess like that was newsworthy https://t.co/qmI1ms6tc4
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反感权威论证，除非能讲清估值和 CPO
@AtlasShrug1 我真的很反感“诉诸权威”的论点，因为除了“行业里有人脉”和“30 年经验”之外，它几乎没有什么实质内容。 除非对方能就估值和 CPO 给出具体论点，否则我会直接忽略。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 Really hate arguments from authority since there’s zero material substance aside from “connections in the industry” and “30 years experience”. Unless there’s a specific argument they had around valuation and cpo, then I’d dismiss it.
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开心看到别人做成了自己帖子里的小型组合
@workoutwithp @tech_signals 很高兴看到你把我提过的那些名字做成了一个小型 ETF！ 也很酷，里面 60% 都是我提过的名字，从 $NBIS 到 $AEHR，除了那几只随机生物科技。 很高兴这套组合有效，61% 的回报真的很厉害。
英文原文
@workoutwithp @tech_signals It’s fun to see that mini ETF of the names I’ve mentioned! Cool to see that 60% are names I’ve talked about from $NBIS to $AEHR, aside from the random biotech. Glad it’s working out for you, 61% return is amazing.
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调侃自己喜欢的几个名字现在都涨了
@iiiiiiiivanth 哈哈，恭喜。 我之前最喜欢的两个是 $AAOI 和 $AXTI，年初最喜欢的是 $LITE。 现在 $SOI 也加入这个队伍了。
英文原文
@iiiiiiiivanth lol congrats. $AAOI and $AXTI were my two favorites earlier. $LITE was at the start of the year. Now $SOI has joined the party
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开玩笑说法语新闻拼写得像用户名
@dahu7744 我看不懂法语新闻，不过你这个拼法倒挺像我的用户名。
英文原文
@dahu7744 I can’t read French news but that’s a cool way to spell my username
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感叹 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 46 美元
@banker092 我也不知道，$AXTI 已经从 12 美元涨到 46 美元，而且看起来根本没停过。
英文原文
@banker092 Idk $AXTI got sent from $12 to $46 and hasn’t looked back
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说自己晚饭要吃鱿鱼
@tech_signals 猜我晚饭要吃鱿鱼吧。
英文原文
@tech_signals Guess like I’m having calamari for dinner
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反驳称 Soitec 被低估且是光子链垄断者
@AtlasShrug1 我会说那位分析师当时对 $SOI 的判断并不懂行——如果它的账面市值比只有 1 倍、PS 只有 2 倍，而且还是 CPO 的垄断者，那就更说明如此。 不是每个人都懂光子供应链。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 I’d say that analyst didn’t know what they were talking about then with $SOI if it trades at 1x book value, 2x P/S and is a monopoly over cpo. Not everyone has domain expertise in photonic supply chains
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把 KRKNF 当交易想法，仍偏好 Soitec
@Noobverest 那些只是交易思路，我自己并没有持有像 $KRKNF 这种票。 不过我确实喜欢 Octopus。 $SOI 是我高信念的光子多头！
英文原文
@Noobverest Those were just trade ideas, I don’t have positions in stuff like $KRKNF. I did like Octopus though $SOI was high conviction photonics long!
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调侃自己发帖后 Soitec 涨了 20%
一个普通人在网上发了下自己对市值数十亿美元公司 $SOI 的看法…… 结果它就涨了 20%。 我现在这么强了吗？
英文原文
How does a random person posting their thoughts on a multi billion dollar company $SOI … Send it up 20% Am I that powerful now? https://t.co/fltXyAOyxC
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对比 NBIS 与 IREN 的融资结构，认为前者更优
$NBIS 和 $IREN 的差别，简直天壤之别。 Nebius：来自 $NVDA 的 20 亿美元稀释，没有立刻对公众流通盘形成卖压。 IREN：通过 ATM 稀释 60 亿美元，卖压直接打进公开市场。 这会直接从公众手里抽走流动性，并压制动量。 谁更能通过资本开支融资带来更高的股价升值，已经非常清楚了。 一个是与 Nvidia 的战略合作，另一个是有毒融资。
英文原文
$NBIS vs. $IREN. The difference is night and day. Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing. One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.
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认为做空 HIMS 是极其愚蠢的
做空者方向性加仓 $HIMS，真是蠢到家了。 他们最近的收购直接给 $HIMS 带来了全球 DTC 医疗零售市场。 交叉销售机会极其潜在，而且很难建模。 在这种情况下，这根本不是你平常那种有对冲的套利交易，所以风险管理非常差。
英文原文
Extremely stupid for short sellers to directionally double down on $HIMS. Their recent acquisitions just gave $HIMS the global retail market for DTC healthcare. The cross selling opportunities are extremely latent and hard to model. So very bad risk management, given it’s not your typical hedged arbitrage trade.
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认为 MRVL 受益有限，更看好 Soitec 和 TSEM
@siflower 你从 $MRVL 能拿到的直接敞口其实很有限。Celestial 的收入大约是 2028 年 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元。 Marvell 的大部分收入起量来自到 2028 年的 $MSFT Maia 和 ASIC，不过它依然是一只很棒的多头。 至于 CPO，我觉得 Soitec 和 $TSEM 大概是两个更关键的名字。
英文原文
@siflower You're getting very minimal exposure from $MRVL. Celestial revenue was ~$500m 2028, $1B 2029. Most of Marvell's revenue ramp comes from $MSFT Maia and ASICs toward 2028, but it's an amazing long nevertheless. For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two.
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回应新矿情报，提到原油略有冲高
@CoffeeStocksGuy 不错，你比我先说出来了。我对 $CODA 和 $KRKNF 得出了同样的结论，这挺有意思的。 这更多是对 12 个小时前新矿情报的反应。 看起来原油价格在消息出来后小幅冲高了。
英文原文
@CoffeeStocksGuy Nice, you beat me to it. Funny how you came to the same conclusion regarding $CODA and $KRKNF This was more reactionary to the new mine reports 12M ago. Looks like crude oil prices slightly spiked since the news.
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认为路透等消息证实伊朗在布雷，市场在找降温出口
@sergiovelezp 所以路透和其他消息源现在只是确认：伊朗当时确实在布雷。 特朗普昨天的表态大概只是一个下坡路出口和市场稳定器，目的是缓解保险和市场对油价飙升的担忧。 那并不是现实本身。
英文原文
@sergiovelezp So Reuters and other sources just confirmed now Iran was laying mines. Trump's statements yesterday were likely an off-ramp and market stabilizer to relieve both insurance/markets from spiking oil prices. Not the actual reality. https://t.co/puD7usiE98
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分析$CODA稳健基本面，伊朗布雷事件为声纳探测板块带来重大利好。
也不尽然，$CODA 看起来基本面非常稳健。现金储备充足，净收入为正，而且对于这个行业+传感器来说利润率极高。如果说有什么的话，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡(Strait)布雷刚刚给声纳/探测类股票（如$CODA和$KRKNF）带来了十年来最大的利好。委内瑞拉的战争更多聚焦于无人机，如$AVAV，而且从未真正涉及水下领域。所以这可能是第一次让所有人看到这些应用的机会+导致更多资金流入该板块，尽管整体市场规模(TAM)并没有真正扩大太多。
英文原文
Not exactly, $CODA looks very fundamentally sound. High cash balance, net income positive, and extremely high margins for the sector + sensors. If anything, Iran placing mines in the Strait just gave sonar/detection stocks like these and $KRKNF the biggest tailwind of the decade. Warfare in Venezulea focused more on drones like $AVAV and never really went underwater. So this is probably one of the first times everyone sees the applications now + leads to more sector inflows, even if TAM didn't exactly increase too much.
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认为对韩国和台积电供应链的扰动被夸大
任何扰动都不会是好事。 不过，其对韩国供应链或台湾的 $TSM 的影响大多被夸大了。 美国政策的核心是压低油价。 而伊朗唯一的生存机会，就是让能源 / 油价极端上涨，逼美国后退。 我永远会把赌注押在美国政策上。
英文原文
Any disruption is never a positive thing. However the effect to which the supply chains in Korea or $TSM in Taiwan are largely overblown. US policy focuses around lowering oil prices. And Iran's only chance of survival is extreme increases in energy/oil prices, leading the US to back off. I would always put my money on US policy.