个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
作者看好NBIS反弹，建议买入3-5月看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 鉴于每个人都值得被爱，我也会去接 $NBIS 这把下落的飞刀（Omoroi）。3月至5月的看涨期权更安全，但我预计 Weebius 会恢复！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
-
因NBIS股价下跌，计划买入3股。
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS 又跌了几个百分点，也许是时候买入 3 股了。
英文原文
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS がさらに数パーセント下落したので、そろそろ 3 株買う頃かもしれない
-
TSSI暴跌后若仍依附DELL供应链，或是买入良机。
哇，太恶心了——$TSSI 暴跌 -42.69%，抱歉如果你持有该股。这很可能是数据中心板块抛售的一部分，且看来他们因运营失误导致业绩不及预期。 我有一段时间没关注它了，但如果他们仍在搭 $DELL 的便车，那么这可能是一个不错的买入机会。未来营收不少，包括 2026 年 Q1-Q2 来自 $SMCI 的订单。SMCI 也提到了积压订单的延迟。此外，随着数据中心建设，$DELL 也有大量积压订单。 市场也重挫了 $CRWV，原因是建设短期延迟。
英文原文
Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders. I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout. Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.
-
关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
-
基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
-
新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
-
AI股短期暴跌，但基本面改善令长期看涨。
@DivesTech “迷你恐慌”。更像是全线个股的崩盘，例如 $IREN 暴跌 38%，$ALAB 本周重挫 20.30%。但正如你所说，由于基本面改善，我对长期走势依然看涨。https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
英文原文
@DivesTech "Mini Panic". More like crash in names across the board with stocks like $IREN crashing 38% to $ALAB tanking 20.30% this week. But as you said I'm bullish too longer term due to improving fundamentals. https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
-
机构逢低吸纳NBIS，散户因恐慌抛售。
@babyfolio 实际上，使用其他一些数据集，这一比例是 46.3%。 是的，机构正在从 $NBIS 的散户手中逢低吸纳。不过并非所有人都关注 X 平台，因此在那之外，可能有很多不了解其基本面和远期增长的群体正在恐慌性抛售。
英文原文
@babyfolio Oh it’s actually 46.3% with some other datasets. Yeah institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there’s probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don’t understand their fundamentals and forward growth https://t.co/2sRhYsKZ5Q
-
NBIS因市场过度反应大跌，机构报告对其商业模式构成压力测试。
确实，这会影响市场情绪，甚至导致过度反应，正如我们目前在 $NBIS 身上看到的（例如：年化经常性收入(ARR)超预期200%+，与 $META 的意外交易，却下跌20%+）。但像摩根大通(JPM)或伯瑞(Burry)这类机构报告，确实在根本上对商业模式进行了压力测试，例如更高的借贷成本和更严格的贷款条件。
英文原文
Well it does impact market sentiment to the point of overreaction, which we're seeing with $NBIS right now. (eg. beats ARR estimates by 200%+, surprise $META deal, down 20%+) But those types of institutional reports from JPM or Burry does fundamentally stress test business models a bit eg. higher borrowing costs and stricter loans.
-
AI板块遭无差别抛售，基本面改善的个股如NBIS现买入机会。
这是多种因素的混合影响： - 对高贝塔值(High-Beta) + AI 股票的无差别抛售 - 政府停摆延长 - 12 月降息概率 - 因折旧会计处理增加的做空头寸 一些像 $NBIS 这样的股票尽管创下历史新高盈利且基本面积极，仍受板块抛售影响。 另一些像 $CRWV 的股票因延迟导致远期盈利不及预期，其短期表现更易于理解。 总体而言，来自像 $CIFR（与 AWS 合作）和 $WULF（与 Anthropic 合作，今日宣布 500 亿美元建设计划）等 Neoclouds 公司的财报(ER)和更新非常积极。 如果像 NEbius 这样的股票在基本面改善的情况下被抛售，那就是买入机会。
英文原文
It's a mix of: - indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks - government shutdown extensions - rate cut December odds - increased shorts from depreciation accounting Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals. Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays. Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today. If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.
-
成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
-
类比HOOD反弹，认为NBIS下跌源于恐慌，基本面仍支撑市值。
我刚刚想起 $HOOD 从 $65 跌至 $28，随后上演了一波撕裂面孔的反弹至 $150 的情景。当市场充满恐惧时，股价有时会脱离基本面。$NBIS 因“AI 泡沫”担忧而在更广泛的抛售中受累，正是如此。然而，前瞻性增长支撑了任何市值预测，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
I just got reminded of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a face ripping rally to $150. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets. This is happening with $NBIS when it gets caught in broader selloffs because of “AI bubble” fears. Yet the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
-
建议用杠杆博取NBIS反弹，认为其230亿市值严重低估。
@Wutarded 如果我想在这样规模的组合中承担更多风险，我会使用保证金或LEAPS（长期股权预期权）来增加杠杆。 我很确定$90-93是底部，对于$NBIS日益增长的基本面来说，230亿美元的市场规模简直是有罪（被严重低估）。
英文原文
@Wutarded I’d do margin/leaps here for more leverage if I wanted to take on more risk with that portfolio size. Pretty sure $90-93 is bottom, $23B market cap for the growing fundamentals of $NBIS is just criminal at this point.
-
重申 $NBIS 核心业务与高增长逻辑，呼吁投资者在市场回调中保持信念。
如果在这次市场回调中你有一丝怀疑。 请记住这一点： $NBIS 是一家市值 240 亿美元的公司，远期年度经常性收入 (ARR) 为 80 亿美元，目标 EBITDA 利润率 30%。 Nebius 的核心业务为从 $MSFT 到 $META 的 Mag7 超大规模云服务商、从 Shopify 到 Cursor 再到埃森哲的企业，以及政府人工智能基础设施提供动力。 他们拥有 100 亿美元以上的净资产价值 (NAV)，其超增长投资组合公司赋能了 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 当然，Nebius 同比增长 700%+，这在从季度收入 1.25 亿美元到仅 1 年内达到 20 亿美元+的过程中几乎闻所未闻。 这家公司处于整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心，股价为 $93，有望成为下一家市值 1000 亿美元+的公司。 不要让广泛的抛售影响你的信念。
英文原文
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure. They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year. This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next $100B+ company. Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.
-
反驳死扛泡沫论，强调$NBIS基本面强劲且估值合理。
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG 在美联储收紧货币时持有市值200亿美元但零收入的量子计算公司，这才是“死扛泡沫破裂”(Bag holding a bubble burst)。 而不是持有像 $NBIS 这样年营收增长700%+、年经常性收入(ARR)达80亿美元、EBITDA利润率20-30%、持有约60亿美元以上净资产(NAV)资产（这些资产来自为Meta和Anthropic提供动力的公司）、市值240亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG Bag holding a bubble burst is when you hold $20B mc 0 revenue quantum companies under Fed tightening. Not a company ( $NBIS ) growing 700%+ Y/Y doing $8 Billion ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, holding ~$6B+ in NAV assets from companies powering Meta and Antrophic, valued at $24B
-
NBIS业绩超预期且基本面与股价脱节，作者今日重仓买入并看好其超越CRWV。
$NBIS 超出预期，我没看到任何分析师模型预测 $70-90 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入），这简直是令人咋舌的增长（同比增长 700%+）。 目前市场出现无差别抛售，但： - 政府停摆可能今天结束 - $NBIS 将于 11 月 24 日因纳入指数带来资金流入 - 12 月圣诞行情 - 12 月前有 70% 的概率降息 供参考：最看多的分析师预计 ARR 约为 30 亿，而 Nebius 指引是该数字的 2.5 倍。目前基本面与股价脱节，我个人今天已重仓买入。 我认为 Nebius 将在下一个增长/复苏周期中超越 $CRWV。
英文原文
$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y). Indiscriminate selloff right now but: - Gov shutdown likely ending today - $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov - Santa rally Dec -70% rate cut into Dec FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today. I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.
-
Northland上调目标价，NBIS业绩超预期，作者逢低加仓。
Northland 刚刚将其目标价(PT)上调至 $211（跑赢大盘），但这 $6 的涨幅可能只是随机波动。正如你所说，我们两人都在建模约 $50-70 亿 ARR，而 $NBIS 刚刚凭借强劲的财报表现，将指引提升至 $70-90 亿。不幸的是，从 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的板块性抛售正在发生，但基本面与股价已脱节，本周跌幅达 20%。我利用这次机会在 $96 加仓。一家年增长率超过 700% 的企业显然定价错误，主要受宏观恐慌和板块回调影响。
英文原文
Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump. As you mentioned, we both were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure. Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week. I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.
-
基于Nebius最新财报数据，机械重算其估值模型，得出355美元新目标价。
Northland 早在9月就基于2026财年20-40亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)的假设，给出了$NBIS 205美元的目标价。 沿用其相同的经济模型，我们现在得出的1年目标价为： 约355.00美元/股（+248.04%） 这是基于Nebius财报中70-90亿美元ARR预测得出的。 以下是更新后的指标： Northland Capital Markets 2025年9月24日的报告，其2026财年情景假设： ARR：上调至20-40亿美元 营收：23亿美元 调整后EBITDA：9.07亿美元 核心AIaaS业务的EV/销售倍数：23.8倍 流通股：约2.9亿股 每股股权价值：205美元目标价 Nebius新基本面（2025年Q3发布）： 2026财年ARR ≈ 80亿美元（中位数），营收 ≈ 46亿美元，以及按比例缩放的EBITDA（约18亿美元）。 保持其EV/销售倍数 ≈ 23.8倍，新核心企业价值 ≈ 46亿美元 × 23.8 = 1090亿美元。加上子公司（Northland分部估值法合计约70亿美元）和净现金（约7亿美元）-> 总股权 ≈ 1170亿美元 → 约355美元目标价 这是一种机械外推，假设其分析中的估值倍数不变，并非分析师可能因稀释/执行风险等而调整的目标价。 分析师从20亿美元估计到管理层最新指引中位数80亿美元的2-3倍ARR增长，机械性地推高了估值 更新后的目标价是基于重新运行的DCF模型得出的。
英文原文
Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September. From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT: ~$355.00/share (+248.04%) off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected Here's the updated metrics: Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed: ARR: raised from $2-4B Revenue: $2.3B Adjusted EBITDA: $907M EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business. Shares outstanding: ~290 M Equity value per share: $205PT New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release): CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B). Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc. 2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.
-
NBIS获微软Meta验证，需求巨大或超预期
@Dylanwith86 是的，这仅仅意味着当他们签订更多合同时，他们将增加年度经常性收入(ARR)，甚至可能超出其 $70-90 亿 ARR 的预测。两个月前，仅靠 $MSFT 就达到了约 $50 亿。市场对 $NBIS 全栈基础设施的需求巨大，$MSFT 和 $META 已经证明了这一点。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection. 2 months ago it was ~$5B with just $MSFT. Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it.
-
NBIS产能售罄且订单充足，市场低估其破纪录增长。
@ramiN4real 他们的产能已经售罄... 仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元。 $NBIS 将签订更多合同，所以这不是问题。 我仍然认为人们没有理解从季度营收1亿美元在一年内增长到20亿美元以上这种破纪录的增长意味着什么。
英文原文
@ramiN4real They sold out of capacity... for $7-9B ARR for next year alone. $NBIS will contract more so not a problem. I still don't think people understand how record breaking growing from $100m quarterly revenue to $2B+ in 1 year is.
-
NBIS凭借能耗比优势大幅领先IREN。
@cmachdop $NBIS 凭借这一能耗比(Energy Ratio)将 $IREN 远远甩在身后。
英文原文
@cmachdop $NBIS blows $IREN out of the water with this ER
-
Nebius收入指引上调，有望通过新交易明年达120亿ARR。
@StableBread 我原本希望确认50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，现在指引已上调至70-90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 这甚至还没考虑到$NBIS可能进一步扩大规模，超出该前瞻性收入指引，并通过与新超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)达成交易+获取更多算力容量，明年实现120亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 Nebius太疯狂了。
英文原文
@StableBread I was hoping for $5B ARR confirmation, now it’s $7-9B ARR guided. And that’s not even considering that $NBIS could still scale up more and beat that forward revenue guidance and do $12B ARR next year with a new hyperscaler deal + acquiring more capacity. Nebius is crazy.
-
NBIS市值将超千亿美元，当前瓶颈相比预期增长微不足道。
@ravi_nareddy 是的，看看被引用的帖子。即使考虑到这一点，与预期的增长相比，它依然微乎其微。 $NBIS 是一家正在崛起、市值将超 1000 亿美元的公司，这只是时间问题。
英文原文
@ravi_nareddy Yeah look at the quoted post. Even factoring that in, it's tiny compared to projected growth. $NBIS is a $100B+ company in the making, it's just a matter of time.
-
计划继续加仓NBIS看涨LEAPS，认为当前价位严重低估。
@rioferdy838 如果开盘时股价维持在 $116 左右，我会继续加仓 $NBIS 的看涨长期期权（LEAPS）。鉴于财报中给出的新指引，当前价位被严重低估。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 I'm adding more $NBIS call leaps if price stays around $116 when the market opens. Ridiculously undervalued at these levels given new guidance from earnings report.
-
NBIS股价有望12月破150，取决于ATM增发时机。
@Neomeldir 即使到了12月，$NBIS 也很容易突破150美元。这主要取决于公司是否决定通过自动取款机(ATM)机制在市场上出售股份，以及具体的出售时机。
英文原文
@Neomeldir Even by December $NBIS can easily break $150. It just depends on when the company wants to sell shares on the market through their ATM (if they decide to do so)
-
NBIS财报超预期，获META大单，强烈买入。
目前对 $NBIS 财报的总结： 绝对的。爆表。财报。 在两个月前刚与 $MSFT 达成 170 亿美元交易的基础上，又新增了 30 亿美元的 $META 大单，以及 Cursor 的新企业客户。 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR) 预测规模巨大，远超任何预期。 强烈买入，目标价 116 美元（包含定向增发 (ATM) 的影响）。https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
英文原文
Takeaway from $NBIS earnings so far: Absolute. Blowout. Earnings. $3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago. $7-9B ARR projection is enormous and blew away any expectation. Insanely Strong Buy $116 (including the ATM). https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
-
NBIS达成ARR预测，表现超预期，持仓价值显著重估
@Asmallfish5 是的，我在他们通往1000亿美元市值的路径分析中提到，他们只需要实现90-110亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，而他们已经达成了这一预测。 这是一次令人难以置信的持仓表现，即使考虑到10%的潜在定向增发(ATM)稀释，$NBIS 的股价也应远高于基于70-90亿美元预测的水平（我原本期望是50亿美元以上，但这完全超出了我的预期）
英文原文
@Asmallfish5 Yeah I was saying in my path to $100B they just needed to do $9-11B ARR, and they hit that projection. Incredible hold, and even through 10% potential ATM, $NBIS should be way up from this $7-9B projection (I was hoping for $5B+, but this blew away my expectation)
-
看好NBIS，认为其收入增长抵消稀释，当前估值偏低。
我的意思是，仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元，这绝对是巨大的成就。 $NBIS 的股价应该交易在160美元以上，市场目前将其核心业务（季度ARR 22亿美元）估值为150亿美元（哈哈）。巨大的收入预测完全掩盖了任何自动取款机(ATM)融资稀释的影响。 除此之外，大概只需信任 Nebius 管理层即可。通过收购来修复是个不错的方案，但他们可能更清楚该怎么做。
英文原文
I mean just as things are $7-$9B ARR next year alone is absolutely tremendous. $NBIS should be trading at $160+, markets valuing their core business ($2.2B ARR a quarter at $15B right now lol). The tremendous revenue projection outshadows any ATM dilution. That aside, probably just trust Nebius management on this one. Nice fix would be acquisitions, but they would probably know better.
-
NBIS短期抛压大，但META合同战略意义重。
@0xcyberbro 中长期来看很容易。但在极短期内，存在27亿美元抛压（即使 $NBIS 在当前水平被低估）确实令人沮丧。 30亿美元的 $META 合同和年度经常性收入(ARR)预测在战略上更为重大，但股权融资在短期内财务负担更重。
英文原文
@0xcyberbro Easily for mid-long term. Very near term, it sucks that there's 2.7B worth of selling pressure (even if $NBIS is undervalued at these levels). The $3B $META contract and ARR projection is strategically bigger, but the equity raise is financially heavier in the short term.
-
NBIS短期受稀释压制，但基本面强劲，当前股价被低估。
价值27亿美元的自动交易机制(ATM)股份稀释将对$NBIS股价造成短期压力。 从根本上看，他们每年90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的规模及其利润率，理应使其市值达到1000亿美元。 我认为，即使考虑到稀释因素，股价也应远高于当前水平（可转换票据(Convertible Notes)发行价在138美元以上），而这还是在其疯狂的ARR增长和与$META的交易之前。
英文原文
The $2.7B worth of ATM shares for dilution will put short term pressure on $NBIS stock price. Fundamentally doing $9B ARR a year with their margins should bring them to a $100B marketcap anyway. I'd argue stock price should be way up above these levels even factoring in dilution. (convertible notes were at $138+), and this was before their ridiculous ARR growth and $META deal.