个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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NBIS财报超预期且签Meta大单，因ATM稀释股价微跌，但长期前景极看好。
$NBIS 财报大幅超出预期，年化经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元，并与Meta达成30亿美元的超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易。他们还增加了企业客户Cursor。尽管如此，在财报电话会议前股价目前下跌1.77%。为什么？稀释~27亿美元，2500万股通过市场发行(ATM)稀释，将于11月12日提交。这意味着价值27亿美元的股票（按当前价格）可以在公开市场按当前价格出售，而非可转换票据（首选结构），这很可能是股价尚未上涨20%的主要原因。这会影响短期股价，但此次发行后公司基本面依然惊人，拥有卓越的未来收入增长。例如看看Rocketlab或其他通过此举补充增长的公司。如果有更多时间，我也会深入分析财务数据。但仅2026年的70-90亿美元ARR（许多分析师预期在2028年之后），是非常看多的。
英文原文
$NBIS earnings report blew away expectations with $7-9B ARR and a $3B hyperscaler deal with Meta. They also added to their enterprise client list with Cursor. Despite that, stock is down -1.77% currently before their earnings call. Why? Dilution~$2.7B 25M share dilution ATM offering that will be filed Nov 12th. Meaning 2.7B worth of shares (at current prices) can be sold in the open market at current prices vs. convertible notes (preferred structure), which is the most likely reason it's not up 20% by now. It affect share price short term, but the company fundamentals after this offering is incredible with amazing forward revenue growth. Eg. look at Rocketlab or others that did this to supplement growth. Will also delve into financial data given more time. But the $7-9 billion ARR for 2026 alone (which many analysts expected in 2028+), is insanely bullish.
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$NBIS超预期并签$META大单，看好其成长为千亿美元市值公司。
哇，$NBIS 刚刚在增长方面大幅超出了年度经常性收入(ARR)预期，并在财报电话会议(ER)中宣布与 $META 签署了一份令人惊喜的30亿美元超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)协议。 他们现在预计2026年ARR将达到70-90亿美元，这意味着季度营收约为21亿美元以上。 这正是 Nebius 成长为一家市值1000亿美元公司的路径，$NBIS 正在成为一家世代级的公司。 关于整体业绩： 每股收益(EPS)：-0.52 vs -0.4（超预期23%） 营收：1.5573亿 vs 1.411亿（不及预期6%） 市场是前瞻性的，任何短期的财报电话会议波动都会被其巨大的未来增长前景所掩盖。 我将在有更多时间处理信息时进行更深入的分析，但就目前而言，这份惊喜的超大规模云厂商协议意义重大。 当市场对此进行定价时，股价应该远高于当前水平。
英文原文
Wow, $NBIS just blew away ARR expectations on growth and just signed a surprisising $3B hyperscaler deal with $META from their ER. They now expect $7-9B ARR 2026, which is ~2.1B+ revenue/quarter. This is exactly how Nebius grows grow to a $100B MC and $NBIS is a generational company in the making. In terms of general earnings: EPS: -.52 vs -.4 (Beat by 23%) Revenue 155.73m vs. 141.1M (Miss by 6%) Markets are forward looking and any short term ER will be overshadowed by its immense forward growth projection. Will do a deeper rundown when there's more time to process information but so far, this is incredibly huge with a surprise hyperscaler deal. Stock should be up way above these levels when markets price this in.
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Nebius核心业务被低估，现有业务按计划推进即利好。
很多人仍不理解 $NBIS 的未来营收，Nebius 量化并确认像 $WULF 这样的财务数据，而 FinX 正基于其现有核心业务进行投机，这本身就足以成为下一次财报的催化剂。鉴于 $NBIS 已从高点下跌约 20%，且市场低估了其基于现有净资产/资产的核心业务价值。如果宣布像 $CIFR 那样的大合同我会感到惊讶，所以这不在此预期内。我更关注执行层面，如利润率等，在看到他们关于 MSFT 的白皮书和建设/时间表后。如果仅凭现有业务就能按计划推进，那将是极其积极的信号。
英文原文
So a lot of people still don't understand $NBIS forward revenue, so having Nebius quantify and confirm financial data like $WULF that FinX are speculating with their existing core business would already be enough of momentum for next earnings. Since Nebius has already dropped ~20% from highs and markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets. I'd be surprised if they announced another large contract like $CIFR so it's not expected. I'm more interested in execution, such as margins, etc. after seeing their whitepaper and buildout/timeline for MSFT. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive. https://t.co/2x4vlVv6RU
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回应质疑，指出CLSK管理层将争议操作称为无限资金漏洞。
@DeepValueBagger 你可能会说是骗局。但 $CLSK 管理层称之为无限资金漏洞（infinite money glitch）。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger You might say scam. But $CLSK management says infinite money glitch.
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反驳Burry观点，论证旧GPU/TPU因残值仍具价值。
所以@michaeljburry 完全错了，因为 $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/芯片的“保质期(shelf life)”并非他所声称的那样。但这很微妙，因为“利用率(utilization)可能被夸大以证明资本支出(capex)合理性”这一观点确实有一定道理。 你在这里同意我的观点，即它们仍然有用，但你只是在解释为什么出于必要性仍在继续使用它们。 我说的是GPU和TPU保留了残值(residual value)，并举了5-7年前的例子。 如果7年前的TPU因算力约束仍在运行，它们就仍有用途并保留价值。如果5年前的GPU仍在运行且能以高价转售，它们就保留了残值，因为它们被用于低优先级的推理(inference)并实现了货币化。
英文原文
So @michaeljburry is completely wrong in the sense that the shelf life of a $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/ chips is not what he’s claiming. But it’s nuanced because there’s some truth the idea of utilization might be stretched to justify capex. You’re agreeing with me here in that they’re still useful but you’re just explaining why they’re still used out of necessity. I was saying GPUs and TPUs retained residual value and gave ones from 5-7 years ago as an example. If 7 year old TPUs are still running because of compute constraints, they’re still useful and retain value. If 5 year old GPUs are still running and can be resold at high values, they’re retain residual value because they get monetized for lower prio inference.
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宏观利好预期下，建议布局基本面稳健的高Beta成长股。
网上有很多只发标题党的帖子。 我通常尝试在标题之上连接线索，并补充“为什么”（因为它能推动市场）。 关于新宏观环境的TLDR（对$NBIS、$IREN等高Beta股看涨）： 1⃣ 结束政府停摆的协议正在成型 - Axios（政府停摆可能在~5天内结束） 评论：过去一两个小时内，事件合约赔率从27%跳升至54%。我们正在定价近期解决。 • 政府支出恢复后，流动性回流。 • 市场重新定价更高的GDP增长。 • 消费者支出立即回升。 • 不确定性消退（市场讨厌不确定性）。 结果 → 预期当风险偏好回归时，高Beta和周期性股票表现良好。 2️⃣ 向美国纳税人提议$2,000“关税红利” 评论：感觉像是COVID刺激的迷你版。那些存款引发了零售支出的最快跳跃，人们用那笔钱购买从比特币到英雄联盟皮肤的一切。但这至少来自关税。 • 对资产有利：更多资金流入经济。 • 可能导致通胀：需求压力增加，美联储后期可能反击。 • 短期：对风险资产和成长股极度积极。中长期：可能因通胀和美联储收紧而适得其反。 • 此类举措通常旨在短期内点燃市场，利好任何高成长标的。 结果 → 预期在正式重开前抢跑，并在确认后飙升。 你可以看到像$ETH这样的资产因上述两者的结合开始从$3300->$3500恢复，作为一个例子。 再次强调，我预期了像#2这样的情况，仅仅是因为明年中期选举临近。执政党如果市场表现良好通常会连任（所以我预期像#2 + 施压美联储降息，所以市场上涨）。 当然，这只是新消息+猜测，鉴于决策的波动性，不一定是事实lol。但总体上关注那些回调但基本面仍在增长的股票，例如$NBIS、$RDDT、$ALAB等。
英文原文
Lot of headline-only posters out there. I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets). TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc): 1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days) Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution. • Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes. • Market reprices GDP growth higher. • Consumer spending picks up immediately. • Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty). Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back. 2️⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs. • Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy. • Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later. • Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens. • Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth. Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed. You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example. Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up). Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.
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看好NBIS强劲ARR指引及高利润率潜力，静待后续验证。
$NBIS 的年化经常性收入(ARR) 前瞻指引可能非常强劲。英国新数据中心和以色列政府数据中心将通过产能建设+新合同增加即时 ARR。白皮书暗示编排(Orchestration)业务将带来更高利润率。管理层展现出信心，这正是股东所喜欢的。几天后我们就会看到结果。
英文原文
Probably a strong forward projections ARR for $NBIS. New UK datacenters, Israel government datacenters that add more immediate ARR with capacity buildout + new contracts. Whitepaper alludes to higher margins from orchestration. Management exudes confidence which is what shareholders like. We’ll see in a few days.
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NBIS基本面改善显著但股价未动，看好指数纳入及新订单带来的利好。
希望你不会遭遇追缴保证金（如果你使用了杠杆）。否则，杠杆带来的反弹应该会带来更高的上行空间。 $NBIS 自与 $MSFT 达成交易以来，基本面出现了极其积极的变化，但其股价仍维持在最初公告时的跳涨水平附近交易。 抛开宏观因素不谈： - 预计11月24日左右纳入 MSCI 世界指数基金。 - 政府人工智能高性能计算（AI HPC）订单（以色列）。 - 英国数据中心项目。 还有其他次要的服务发布，比如 Token Factory，但我认为上述三点是最大的变化（后两者带来收入增长，前者带来流动性流入）。
英文原文
Hope you don't get margin called (if you're on margin). Otherwise, recovery on leverage should net higher upside. $NBIS only had extremely positive changes to the fundamentals since the $MSFT deal but is trading around the same price on the initial announcement pop. Macro aside: - Inclusion into MSCI world index fund ~Nov 24th. - Government AI HPC deals (Israel) - UK Data center. There's other minor service launches too like Token Factory but I'd probably put those three above as the biggest changes (latter two for revenue increase, first one for liquidity inflow)
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基于降息预期和政府重开概率，推测高贝塔股将大幅复苏。
当然，我的推测是，一旦政府重新开放，我们将看到像 $NBIS、$IREN 或 $ASTS 这样的高贝塔(高波动性)股票大幅复苏。鉴于下个月降息这一更广泛的顺风因素已被定价，概率为 74%。 根据当前的合约数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：51%（未来一周内某时点约有半数机会） 11月30日：92% 我们可以看到，未来7天内政府重新开放的概率为50%。 因此，我们预计届时会出现复苏（如果概率增加，可能会有一些抢跑交易）。这仅仅是关于如何估算复苏。
英文原文
Sure, my speculation was that we'll see a large recovery in high beta stocks like $NBIS, $IREN, or $ASTS once government will re-opens. Since there's a broader tailwind of a rate cut next month priced in at 74%. So with the current contract data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 51% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% We can just see there's a 50% chance government reopens in the next 7 days. So we'll get a recovery around then (likely with some frontrunning if chances increase). That's just in terms with estimating recovery.
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IREN财报EPS超预期系会计技巧，AI云ARR指引强劲，但利润转化仍待观察。
关于 $IREN，我看到那些吹嘘每股收益(EPS)“超预期”的评论，正是之前一直试图引用AI高性能计算(HPC)92%+毛利率的同一群人。这纯粹只是会计框架的包装。 从盈利角度看，他们预测AI云业务的年度经常性收入(ARR)达到34亿美元，这极其看涨。IREN 还有大量剩余产能，因此预计进入2026年后ARR将进一步扩大。 但除此之外，我一直主张产能转化为收入，但从该收入中产生的利润率/自由现金流(FCF)更为重要。现在的问题仅仅是有多少收入能转化为利润，我认为在后续财报出来之前，我们很难确切知道。 抛开这些不谈，IREN 的财报表现似乎很不错。
英文原文
So for $IREN, the amount of comments I've seen bullposting about EPS "beat" are the same people who kept trying to quote 92%+ gross margins on AI HPC. It's literally just accounting framing. Earnings wise, extremely bullish that they projected $3.4B ARR from AI cloud. IREN has a lot more capacity left-over so they'll likely scale ARR more going into 2026. But that aside I've always argued capacity -> revenue, but margins/FCF from that revenue is more important. Now it's just a debate how much of that revenue converts into profit, which I don't think we'll know for sure until future earnings come in. That aside IREN earnings seemed great.
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$SNAP 财报超预期且被低估，中期看涨但短期受市场抛售影响。
是的，$SNAP 的财报非常扎实，尤其是来自 Perplexity 的 4 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。此外，明年还将迎来来自 memories Cloud 的运营支出(opex)削减，5 亿美元回购，且全面超预期。中期来看极度看涨，但它受困于更广泛的市场抛售。我同意其在 137 亿美元的市值下被极度低估，明年轻松有 50%+ 的上涨空间。但大量的期权流向(Option flow)加上更广泛的市场抛售正在影响短期股价。
英文原文
Yeah, $SNAP earnings were incredibly solid, especially with $400m ARR from Perplexity. Then you have opex cuts from memories Cloud coming in next year, $500m buyback, beat across the board. Incredibly bullish mid term, but it got caught in the broader selloff. I'd agree it's extremely undervalued at $13.7B, easy 50%+ going into next year. But there's a lot of option flow + broader sell-off affecting near term stock prices.
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高贝塔股大幅回调，建议基本面完好者逢低布局。
全面的回调简直令人作呕。 高贝塔值成长股过去5天的表现： • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% 像 $RGTI (-27.33%)、$QBUT (-25.5%)、$QBTS (-25.43%)、$OKLO (-17.04%) 等没有收入的投机性股票，普遍出现了更大的回调。 当政府重新开放时，我预计许多投机性名称将继续下跌，而基本面完好无损的公司（例如 $CIFR、$NBIS、$TSM、$HOOD、$RDDT）将会恢复。 当前合约市场数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：49%（下周某时约有一半几率） 11月30日：92% 在市场极度恐慌且下月第三次降息概率超过75%时，利用大幅回调布局高贝塔值股票（如果基本面完好）是绝佳时机。 像这样的大规模抛售也说明了为什么你不应该做剩余期限<30天的短期期权，即使你对 $SNAP 或 $CIFR 的财报判断正确。
英文原文
Pretty disgusting correction across the board. Last 5 days for high-beta growth stocks: • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% Speculative no revenue stocks like ( $RGTI -27.33%, $QBUT -25.5%, $QBTS -25.43%, $OKLO -17.04% etc), had larger corrections across the board. When the government reopens, I’d expect many of the speculative names to stay down, while companies where fundamentals are in tact (eg. $CIFR, $NBIS, $TSM, $HOOD, $RDDT) would recover. Current Contract Market data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 49% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% Great time to position into higher-beta stocks during large corrections, (if fundamentals are in-tact), especially when we're in the extreme-fear part of markets and there's 75%+ of a third rate cut next month. Broad selloffs like these are also why you don't do short dated options <30dte, even if you are correct on earnings like $SNAP or $CIFR.
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认为$NBIS受宏观影响被低估，基本面完好是买入良机。
@hereforgoodish $NBIS 在当前价位被严重低估。它只是一只受宏观环境影响的高贝塔（High Beta）股票。 如果基本面完好，这就是一个买入机会。 https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
英文原文
@hereforgoodish $NBIS is very undervalued at these levels. It’s just a high beta stock affected by broader macro. If fundamentals are in tact, then it’s a buying opportunity https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
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澄清 $IREN 估值争议，指出原帖低估IRR，给出10%-28%的IRR区间。
当有人说“他讨厌x”或“他有偏见”时，你没有任何理由去反驳他的观点。我不确定很多 $IREN 社区成员是去攻击个人而不是数据，但这无助于解决问题。 回到主题，你说得对，原帖确实遗漏了 $IREN 200兆瓦数据中心（数据中心）的残值，其使用寿命通常长于5年。因此，这低估了内部收益率(IRR)。 但该表格在隔离合同经济学（而非企业价值EV）方面在数学上是正确的，所以你们争论的是两回事。 现实介于你的帖子和他们的帖子之间： -> 无杠杆内部收益率(IRR) ~10.2% -> 可能的IRR案例 <20% (14%-18%) -> 22-28% 是激进情况，且一切顺利（伴随显著的数据中心终端实现和融资）
英文原文
You have no argument when you say his point is wrong because "He hates x" or "He is biased". I'm not sure a lot of $IREN community members go after a person themself instead of the data but it's not productive. Going back to the topic, you're right that the original post is missing residual value for $IREN's 200 MW datacenter, which usually has longer life than 5Y. So it understates IRR. But the table is mathematically correct for isolating contract economics, not EV, so you're arguing two different things. Reality lies in between your post and theirs: -> Unlevered IRR ~10.2% -> Likely IRR case <20% (14%-18%) -> 22-28% aggressive and everything goes right (with significant terminal datacenter realization and financing)
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分析 $OSS 与 Andruil 合作潜力及订单规模，仅少量持仓追踪。
很高兴看到关于 $OSS 的其他观点，我个人只有在他们与 Andruil 合作并成为像 $KRKNF 那样的核心供应商时才感兴趣。 看起来他们目前仅处于 $650 万合同订单的测试阶段。但话说回来，考虑到他们的市值仅为 1.2 亿美元，这已经是一笔不小的数目了。 _ 披露更新：我仅持有几百美元作为表现追踪器，并非投资。
英文原文
Good to know other thoughts about $OSS, I personally was only interested in it if they worked with Andruil and became a core supplier like $KRKNF. It looks like they're just in testing stage with the $6.5m contract order. But then again considering their marketcap is only $120m that's quite a lot. _ disclosure update: I have a few hundred dollars worth just as a performance tracker, not an investment.
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看好AMD上行潜力及HOOD长期价值，短期略高估
两者都是优质的多头标的，$AMD 拥有极高的上行潜力（仅参考 $NVDA 的市值即可见），且 Sam Altman 和 Elon 确认 AMD 在前沿模型中具有极高效用，这是极其积极的信号。 $HOOD 是一家世代级的公司。高确信度的长期持有。短期来看，我认为它像 $RKLB 一样略微高估。
英文原文
Both good longs, $AMD has extremely high upside potential (just looking at $NVDA's marketcap) and Sam Altman/Elon confirming AMD has high utility for frontier models is extremely positive. $HOOD generational company. High conviction long term. Short-term I'd argue it's a tad overvalued like $RKLB.
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TI文章揭示ORCL HPC低毛利，对比NBIS高毛利，市场因Altman承诺对ORCL存疑。
部分原因在于 TI 的抹黑文章，显示 $ORCL 因其 AI 高性能计算(HPC) 部门利用率低、编排失败，毛利率仅为 14%，而 $NBIS 等目前毛利率为 71.4%（平均 50-70%）。 这充分表明 HPC 部门是护城河，甚至超大规模云厂商在基础设施建设上也失败了。 除此之外，Sam Altman 向每家超大规模云厂商承诺了高得离谱的未来收入，因此市场对 Oracle 持有一定的怀疑态度。
英文原文
Well part of it is the TI hit piece which showed $ORCL was only doing 14% gross margins for their AI HPC segments due to low utilization, orchestration failures, while $NBIS and others were currently sitting at 71.4% (50-70% avg) Just goes to show HPC segments are moats and that even hyperscaleds failed on buildouts. Apart from that, Sam Altman has been promising every single hyperscaler stupidly high forward revenue, so markets are pricing in a bit of skepticism with Oracle.
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AMD市值潜力取决于AI模型应用，但鉴于对台积电依赖，仓位较小。
嗯，如果萨姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)和埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)关于前沿模型能充分利用AMD的说法属实，$AMD 的市值潜力有望达到 $NVDA 目前的水平。不过，OpenAI 目前承诺每年为 $AMD 带来额外数百亿美元的前瞻性收入，这显得有些过于乐观，让我们拭目以待。这也正是我的 $AMD 仓位相对于 $TSM 较小的原因，以及我说过无需将 AMD 与 NVDA 或 $IREN 与 $NBIS 进行比较的原因，因为所有环节都依赖于 $TSM。
英文原文
Hmm, $AMD has potential to be $NVDA’s current market cap if what Sam Altman + Elon Musk says is true in how frontier models can use it well. Then again OpenAi is promising too many things right now in terms of an additional tens of billions of forward revenue a year to $AMD, so we’ll see. That’s kind of why my AMD position sizes were small relative to $TSM, and why I’ve said you don’t need to compare AMD to NVDA or $IREN to $NBIS when every single thing is reliant on $TSM
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建议RDDT收购SNAP并削减成本以盈利，同时推出新产品。
举个例子： $RDDT 应该尝试收购 $SNAP，然后通过削减增强现实(AR)业务部门、精简管理层以及降低谷歌云(GCP)成本来实现盈利（这很容易）。监管机构不会阻止这一收购，但会阻止 $META 收购它。 然后推出类似 X 银行服务的新产品。Reddit 在其 NFT 市场业务上曾有过一些活力，但从未跟进落实。
英文原文
So for examples: $RDDT should try and acquire $SNAP then turn it profitable (easy) by cutting AR segments, management, cutting GCP costs. (Regulators wouldn’t block this but they’d block $META acquiring it). Then go out and launch new products like what X does with banking. Reddit had some sparks of life with their NFT marketplace stuff, but they never followed through.
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不建议在NBIS暴跌时卖看跌期权，因低估且可能反弹。
@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm 在 $NBIS 出现此类极端下跌时，我不卖出看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts)，因为它随时可能反弹至 $130+ 的行权价。鉴于当前的权利金，像 $160+ 这样深度虚值(Far OTM)的期权并不值得操作。你并不总是需要卖出期权，尤其是当你认为某只股票被极度低估时。
英文原文
@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm I don't sell CC's on $NBIS on extreme drops like this since it can rebound to $130+ strikes any day. Far OTM ones like $160+ are not worth it given current premiums. You don't always need to write options, especially if you think a stock is extremely undervalued.
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类比$HOOD，看好$RDDT利用高利润进行收购以驱动营收增长。
与$HOOD（金融科技）类似的论点也适用于$RDDT（社交媒体）： 高粘性用户群，极高的盈利能力 -> 为该用户群推出新产品 -> 通过利润进行收购 -> 增长营收。 $RDDT -> 高粘性用户群，极高的盈利能力 -> 新产品发布（严格来说不是，但在某种意义上是，比如出售数据用于AI） -> 通过利润进行收购（缺失） -> 增长营收。 Reddit本季度才首次实现持续盈利，因此我希望未来几个季度能通过利润驱动收购来推动营收增长，就像Facebook通过收购WhatsApp/Instagram实现增长一样。
英文原文
Also similar thesis to $HOOD (fintech) for $RDDT (social media) Sticky customer base, extreme profitability -> new product launches for that customer base -> acquisitions through profitability -> grow revenue. $RDDT -> sticky customer base, extreme profitability -> new product launches (not really, but kinda in a sense, like selling data for AI) -> acquisitions through profitability (missing) -> grow revenue. Reddit only achieved consistent profitability this quarter, so I'm hoping acquisitions through profits would drive forward revenue like how Facebook grew acquiring whatsapp/instagram in the next few quarters.
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看好RDDT网络效应及RKLB太空赛道潜力，类比META与HOOD估值逻辑。
是的，量子计算一直是个泡沫，但鉴于市场有时非理性，我不做空。至于互联网上最爱/最恨的社区，我个人认为 $RDDT 的规模化路径很清晰：作为全球第七大网站，凭借网络效应它将长期存在。回顾推特上市时，估值4000亿美元，年营收37-50亿（自由现金流为负），年增长20-30%。$RDDT 季度营收5.85亿，毛利率91%，EBITDA 2.36亿（占营收40%），估值约340亿。鉴于它不像 $META 那样每次收购都面临全球反垄断审查，我认为 Reddit 有潜力像 $HOOD 那样增长，即在IPO后不久就大量盈利并持续扩大利润率。因此，它可以专注于利用粘性用户群扩大营收/收购（例如 Robinhood 收购加密货币交易所）。是的，$RKLB 有清晰的轨迹走向3500亿美元+市值，像 SpaceX 一样，因为太空应用众多且涉及巨大国家安全风险，大量投资将涌入该领域。
英文原文
Yeah quantum was always a bubble, but I don't short given how irrational they are sometimes. As for the Internet's favorite/most hated community, I personally see the path to scale for $RDDT just how it's the 7th most popular website on the internet and it will be around for awhile just due to network effect. Just going back to Twitter when it was public, it was valued at $40B, doing $3.7-5B yearly revenue (with negative FCF) growing roughly 20-30% Y/Y. $RDDT is doing $585m quarterly revenue, 91% gross margins, 236M EBITDA (40% of revenue) ~34B valuation. And given it's not at the scale of $META where every acquisition has global anti-trust lawyers on their asses, I just see Reddit with the potential to grow like $HOOD where they're printing money so close to after IPO and keeps on expanding margins. So they can just focus on expanding revenue/acquisitions with their sticky userbase (eg. how Robinhood acquired crypto exchanges). Yeah $RKLB has such a clear trajectory toward $350B+ MC like SpaceX since there's so many applications you can do with Space + huge national security risk so lot of investments will pour into the sector.
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分析CRWV收购失败及高息债务劣势，对比NBIS优势并指出政府合同潜力。
对于 $CRWV 而言，问题在于其收购 $CORZ 未能获批。Core Scientific 本应比那 90 亿美元的收购价带来更大价值。若能在其现有合同基础上，通过收购为全栈模型（Full Stack Model）增加更多 GW 级算力，将是极度看涨（omega bullish）的利好。 Coreweave 每年还有超过 10 亿美元的利息债务，这对自由现金流（FCF）和利润率造成了极大拖累（相比之下，$NBIS、$CIFR、$IREN 使用的是可转换票据）。 $NBIS 已经实现了 $CRWV 的全栈垂直整合，但拥有更高的利用率、更好的编排/性能（根据其白皮书）、无巨额债务利息以及高积压订单，因此市场看到了其他风险更低、上行空间更大的替代方案。 不过，如果 $CRWV 获得美国政府合同批准，那将是另一个巨大的看涨催化剂。但我们已经看到像与 $META 签订的 140 亿美元这样的大型合同积压订单，然而其债务利息确实荒谬。
英文原文
For $CRWV it was $CORZ acquisition failing to get approved. Core scientific would have delivered so much more value than that 9B price tag. Having more GW capacity added to their full stack model (on top of their existing contract with them), would have been omega bullish with the acquisition. Coreweave also has $1B+ in interest debt a year, which is an extremely big drag on FCF + margins (compared to $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN with did convertible notes). $NBIS already achieved what $CRWV did with full-stack vertical integration, but higher utilization + better orchestration/performance (as per their whitepaper) + no massive interest on debt + high backlogs, so markets see other lower risk, higher upside, alternatives emerging. If $CRWV get approved for US Gov contracts though, that would be another huge catalyst upside. But we already have visibility into large contracted backlogs like $14B with $META but the debt interest is just ridiculous.
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政府重开引发资产抛售，看好NBIS、META等优质资产错杀机会。
政府重新开放（可能在14号左右）真是个奇怪的催化剂，但确实如此。现在确实是资产抛售。没想到$BTC会再次跌破10万美元，但它确实跌了。然后是$NBIS，其核心业务（50-70%+利润率）明年ARR达50亿美元（无增长），净资产值110亿美元+，其中58亿为现金。市值270亿美元。$META，远期市盈率<22或更低？我听说有19倍市盈率的说法，我只是凭记忆。它仍在快速增长，在这个规模下更令人印象深刻。只是叙事和一次性税收导致价格下跌。还有其他有趣的买入如$RKLB、$RDDT等，但这类修正会抹去很多泡沫如$OKLO、$RGTI，但优质资产也遭殃。
英文原文
Gov reopening (likely around ~14th) is such a weird catalyst but it is. Yeah it's an asset fire sale right now. Didn't think $BTC would go below $100k again but it did. Then there's $NBIS, $5B ARR (50-70%+ margin) core business 1Y from now (without any growth), and NAV 11B+ with 5.8B of it cash. Valued at $27B. $META, <22 forward p/e or less? I've heard 19 p/e floated, I'm just going off the top of my head. It's still growing rapidly, which is even more impressive at that scale. Just narratives and one-time-tax dropped price. Lot of other fun buys like $RKLB, $RDDT and others too, but these types of corrections wipe off a lot of froth like $OKLO, $RGTI, but great assets get caught in the crossfire.
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感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
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计划向META定投并逢高加仓NBIS，视其为绝佳买入机会。
@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger 我将在 $610 的价格向 $META 定投(DCA)六位数的资金。对于 $NBIS，如果我会通过减仓其他头寸来获利了结，我会始终在多头仓位上进行向上摊平成本(Cost Average Up)。 但如果其他人目前没有在这些股票上持有头寸，这正是一个绝佳的买入机会。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger I’ll DCA another 6 figures into $META at $610. For $NBIS I’ll always cost average up for longs if I trim other positions But if others don’t have positions they want in those right now it’s an amazing buying opportunity
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宏观利空非个股问题，$NBIS基本面强劲，视为买入机会。
@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger 这只是宏观层面的影响，并非个股自身的问题，因此这是一个买入机会。大多数高贝塔(高Beta)个股在没有消息的情况下今天都下跌了。但区别在于 $NBIS 拥有支撑基本面的极高远期收益(Forward Earnings)，所以这只是一个等待游戏。
英文原文
@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger This is just macro, not happened to the individual stock so it’s a buying opportunity. Most high beta names without any news are down today. But difference is $NBIS has stupidly high forward earnings to back up fundamentals so it’s just a waiting game
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澄清S+评级含义，指出NBIS因高利润和非对称回报入选。
@onceinliftime3 根据 @DeepValueBagger 的说法，S+ 等级是虚构的。但这仅意味着它是评级最高的类别。$NBIS 是唯一符合标准的 Neocloud（新云）公司，因其高利润率和非对称回报潜力。
英文原文
@onceinliftime3 According to @DeepValueBagger S+ is made up. But it just means it’s the highest rated category. $NBIS was the only Neocloud that fits due to high margins and asymmetrical return
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IREN交易因承担高额CapEx且毛利远低于NBIS而显得糟糕。
当你关注自由现金流(FCF)而非营收数字时，$IREN 的交易看起来糟糕得多，因为它并非纯粹的托管服务(Colo)。当标准化至 300 MW 并对比微软(MSFT)的交易时，$IREN 预计毛利率仅为 30% 左右，甚至在悲观情景下为低个位数，而 $NBIS 则超过 50%（至少基于初步计算，我需要重新审视）。在这种情况下，$IREN 自行承担了 58 亿美元的 GPU 及辅助设备资本支出(CapEx)。
英文原文
The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo. When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~50%+ (at least from initial calculations, I need to revisit) In this case, IREN is taking on the $5.8 billion CapEx for the GPUs and ancillary equipment itself.
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对比CIFR与IREN，认为前者估值合理，后者合同条款差且利润率低。
对于 $CIFR，当前盈利无关紧要，市场定价基于远期盈利。乍看之下，除了通过 Fluidstack 现有的 $GOOGL 合作外，AWS 的交易看起来棒极了。因此其 20% 的涨幅实至名归。 另一方面，$IREN 的合同细看之下越来越糟。 营收不重要，重要的是该营收带来的自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，尤其是考虑到他们正在花费 58 亿美元购买 GPU。我看过一些保守情景测算，显示其年化营业利润仅约 9800 万美元/年，这真的太低了。 即便乐观估计，毛利率也在 30% 以下甚至 20% 出头，而非其他人引用的 90%+ 的高性能计算(HPC)板块。这才是规模化后的利润率现实。 $IREN 是在购买资产，而非人们一直声称的提供托管服务(colocation service)。 $NBIS 与微软(MSFT)的交易在标准化至 300MW 后，其盈利能力和毛利率远优于 $IREN。当然，我还需要花更多时间进行建模。
英文原文
For $CIFR, doesn't matter about current earnings, market prices in forward earnings. And at first glance AWS deal looks amazing on top of their existing $GOOGL deals through Fluidstack. So well deserving of their 20% bump. For $IREN on the other hand, the contract worse and worse when you examine it more. Revenue does not matter. FCF/margins from that revenue is what matters, especially since they're spending $5.8bn GPUs. I've seen some conservative-case calculations where they generate ~Annualized operating profit 98m+/year, which is really low. Even so optimistically, gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting. This is the reality of margins at scale. IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do. $NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN’s in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. But of course I need to spend more time on modeling.