个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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批评IREN等股缺乏基本面逻辑的“看价格”论调
只是提醒一下，关于 $IREN、$XRP、$BMNR 等“我知道很多但说不清原因，所以看一年后的价格，自行研究(DYOR)”的论调，让圈外人直翻白眼。你提到的“人们因恐惧且其为矿企而认为价格被低估”的弱点，与基本面毫无关系。我本以为会看到关于 GPU 折旧或编排(Orchestration)风险的论点，哈哈。
英文原文
Just letting you know, the “I know a lot but can’t tell you why” argument about $IREN, $XRP, $BMNR, etc. so just look at the price 1 year later DYOR, makes people outside the community roll their eyes. The weakness you mentioned that people are scared and that it’s a miner so price is undervalued has nothing to do with fundamentals. I was expecting GPU depreciation arguments or orchestration risks lol
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回应评论并探讨IREN与TSSI的投资逻辑及评级调整。
感谢你在嵌套回复中列出了所有价格，这确实节省了大量时间！我也很好奇它们的实际表现如何。 你对 $IREN 有特定的投资论点想要辩论吗？如果有人能提出令人信服的论据，我很乐意改变我的想法。 我也很乐意进一步阐述每只股票背后的逻辑，因为原帖篇幅有限，无法容纳所有解释。 我在另一条回复中分享了关于 $TSSI 和 $IREN 的内容，解释了我为何将其中一只降级为“买入”评级。
英文原文
Thanks for commenting all the prices down in your nested reply. it actually saves a lot of time! I’m curious how they all perform too. Did you have a specific thesis behind $IREN that you’d like to debate? Happy to change my mind if someone has a convincing argument. Happy to elaborate more on explanations too behind each stock, since there’s not enough room in the original post. Shared in one of the other replies about $TSSI and $IREN why I’ve downgraded the other to buy.
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NBIS超卖待反弹，MSCI资金流入对220亿市值影响巨大。
@rioferdy838 @hereforgoodish2 $NBIS 显然超卖且即将迎来剧烈反弹，但也许是在提前博弈11月24日的 MSCI 指数资金流入，叠加的流入量从数亿到数十亿美元不等。鉴于 Nebius 的市值仅为 220 亿美元，这种规模的资金流入会产生巨大的实质性影响。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @hereforgoodish2 $NBIS is obviously oversold and due for a violent rebound but maybe frontrunning for Nov 24th MSCI index inflow on top which is a few hundred million to low billions inflow. That much makes a huge material difference when Nebius is only a $22B marketcap.
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看好美股基本面改善，逢低买入，若业绩不及预期则退出。
@platochi 的观点也很有道理。当然没有唯一正确的答案，但我核心的逻辑是基本面正在改善（前瞻盈利、利润率、增长），从 $GOOG、$AMZN 等超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)到 $HOOD、$RKLB 等成长股，全线受益。如果公司开始像 $FISV 那样不及预期并下调指引（当然可能没那么夸张 lol），那我就会考虑退出市场，而不是逢低买入。
英文原文
@platochi has a valid thesis too. There's not one correct one for sure, but my core reasoning is that there's improving fundamentals (forward earnings, margins, growth), across the board from hyperscalers like $GOOG, $AMZN down to growth stocks from $HOOD, to $RKLB. If companies started missing earnings and revising downward like $FISV, (maybe not to that extent lol) then I would be looking to exit the market instead of buying dips.
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建议趁市场广泛抛售，买入基本面增长的股票。
@hereforgoodish2 现在有太多优质的买入机会了。买入 $META、$NBIS、$SNAP、$RDDT、$ALAB、$IBIT、$WULF、$CIFR、$RKLB、$WLAC 或 $TSM 都不会出错。 我肯定还漏掉了一些，但这次抛售范围很广，所以这是买入基本面正在增长的股票的好时机。
英文原文
@hereforgoodish2 There's too many good buys right now. Can't go wrong with $META, $NBIS, $SNAP, $RDDT, $ALAB, $IBIT, $WULF, $CIFR, $RKLB, $WLAC, or $TSM. I'm sure there's more I missed out but the selloff was broad so it's a good chance to buy into stocks with growing fundamentals.
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IREN若做好基础设施编排具高上行，但GPU全栈执行风险剧增。
如果 $IREN 能在基础设施层面做好编排(Orchestration)，其上行空间极大；$1000亿+市值（$400股价）略显激进但有可能。垂直整合、高互联GW容量以及与 $MSFT 等超大规模云厂商的合作，使 $IREN 在 $49 时具备买入价值。然而，随着决定购买GPU，微软交易带来的执行风险已大幅上升。管理包括系统集成、软件、驱动和网络在内的完整GPU栈（$ORCL 未能做好的部分）远超传统托管(Colo)范畴。
英文原文
$IREN has extremely high upside if they get orchestration right on the infrastructure level and a $100B+ marketcap ($400) is a tad-overly ambitious but possible. Vertically integrated, high connected GW capacity, and hyperscaler deals like $MSFT make $IREN a buy at $49. However, execution risk is a much, much higher now with the Microsoft deal, now that they decided to buy GPUs. Managing the full GPU stack, including system integration, software, drivers, and networking (that $ORCL failed to do well) goes far beyond colo.
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对比NBIS全栈优势与CIFR低风险低上限，看好两者但首选NBIS。
感谢 @accounting_ds 总结我的观点。明天我会发布更深入的全面分析。 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 是我在 Neoclouder（新型云服务商）板块中最看好的两只股票。不过 CIFR 的地位略低于 Nebius。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-cloud（人工智能云）价值链，具备更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使它们承担编排、软件以及 GPU lifecycle（GPU 生命周期）风险，而非仅局限于 colocation（托管服务）。 我看好 $CIFR 是因为它规避了上述所有风险敞口，并拥有 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它还免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 就 CIFR 的经济模型而言，我们得到的是基于为 hyperscalers（超大规模云厂商）提供空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金式结构。经风险调整后，它是该组别中最安全的标的之一。但权衡之下，其上行空间有限。 10年、15年的长期租约减缓了收入增长步伐，并削弱了相对于 NBIS 等全栈 Neocloud 运营商的回报，后者能在一年内将季度收入从 1.45 亿美元提升至 21 亿美元。
英文原文
Appreciate, @accounting_ds for summarizing my opinion. I'll post a deeper dive into everything tomorrow. $NBIS, $CIFR are my favorite two in the Neoclouder sector. CIFR sits right below Nebius though. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. I like $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from $AMZN and $GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year.
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成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
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对比加密控股公司，建议直接持有资产，视MSTR为例外。
如果观察灰度投资（Grayscale Investments）等历史模式——在ETF出现前，这是通过控股公司获取加密货币敞口的方式——它们曾长期大幅折价于净资产值(NAV)交易。 对于许多像 $BMNR 这样的公司，直接持有底层 $ETH 资产是更好的选择。对于 $MARA，则是持有 $BTC 以及挖矿业务，并可能向高性能计算(HPC)转型的混合体。 我认为 $MSTR 是控股公司的例外，这归因于其积累的巨额 $BTC，以及美国政府将其国有化以获取比特币敞口的潜在可能性。
英文原文
If you look at historical patterns such as grayscale investments, which was the way to get crypto exposure from holding companies pre-ETF, they traded way under-NAV for the longest time. With many companies like $BMNR, you’re better off holding the underlying $ETH asset. With $MARA it’s a mix of holding $BTC as well as the mining business + optionally to transition to HPC. I would only argue $MSTR is an exception to holding companies due to how much $BTC they’ve accumulated and the potential for nationalization for the US government to get exposure to Bitcoin.
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澄清NBIS与CRWV利润率差异，指出NBIS处于更优位置。
再次强调，情况非常微妙，我只是想指出你可能混淆或误解的地方。 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 拥有最高的标准化利润率(normalized margins)，但 $CRWV 之所以亏损，是因为其巨额债务利息。 如果从公式中剔除这一因素，并保持较高的利用率(utilization) + 改善导致利润率计算的复杂公式中的其他部分，那么 $NBIS 就处于那个“甜蜜点(sweet spot)”，这就是我试图表达的观点。
英文原文
Again it’s very nuanced and I’m just trying to point out what you might be conflating or misunderstanding. $NBIS and $CRWV have the highest normalized margins but the reason why $CRWV is unprofitable is because of their large debt interest. If you remove that from the equation and maintain higher utilization + improve other parts of the multifaceted equation that leads to margin calculations, then that’s where $NBIS sits in that sweet spot was the point I’m making.
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认可对ONDS的技术分析，考虑建仓。
@sasaa1363 对 $ONDS 的技术分析(TA) 画得很棒，我无法反驳那个分析。看完后我可能会建立仓位。
英文原文
@sasaa1363 Well drawn TA on $ONDS, can’t argue with that analysis. I might initiate a position after looking at it.
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因全栈执行风险高且难超巨头，作者做空IREN。
我不会将全栈(Full-stack)和垂直整合(Vertically integrated)混为一谈，我在谈论 $ORCL 时措辞非常精确。 $NBIS 采用混合模式以扩大利润率。 $IREN 的主要问题在于他们正在做全栈业务，其中软件编排(Software orchestration)是一个令人难以置信且被误解的护城河，但这将执行风险放大了数个数量级。 如果你做对了，你将拥有行业内最高的利润率/收入。但 $CRWV 花了数年和数十亿美元通过收购才做对，其CEO在电话会议上表示软件是他们的护城河。 很难让市场相信，$IREN 作为一个全新转型进入高性能计算(HPC) AI 云的公司，其全栈能力会优于 $CRWV 花数年构建的能力，甚至优于市值5000多亿美元的 $ORCL 至今未能做到的程度。这就是导致我做空(DG) $IREN 的持续执行风险。 但当然，如果他们能精准做到（这很难），那么其回报潜力将极其巨大。
英文原文
I don't use full-stack and vertically integrated interchangeably, my wording is very precise when I talk about $ORCL. $NBIS does mixed to expand margins. The main issue with $IREN is that they're doing full-stack where software orchestration is an incredible and misunderstood moat and it increases execution risk by magnitudes. If you get it right you have the highest margins/revenue in the industry. But $CRWV spent years and billions in acquisitions to get it right and the CEO said on call that software was their moat. It's hard to convince the market that $IREN, which is doing a brand new pivot into HPC AI cloud, will have better full-stack that $CRWV spent years building and that $ORCL a $500B+ company failed ot do so far. This is the lingering execution risk that led me to DG $IREN. But of course if they get it spot-on (which is difficult), then it has incredibly high return potential.
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市场急跌时，$NBIS因隔离风险且基础稳固，具最大上行潜力。
感谢分享！在市场急跌、许多高贝塔（High Beta）成长资产下跌30%至50%之际，正是重新配置到基础稳固甚至得到强化的股票的时机。在AI数据中心领域，$NBIS 拥有最不对称的上行空间。尽管信用收缩或GPU执行风险影响了 $IREN 和 $CRWV 等新型云（Neo-cloud）企业，但 NBIS 相对隔离于这些担忧之外。
英文原文
Thanks for sharing! 市場急落で多くの高ベータ成長資産が30〜50%下落している今、基礎が揺らがずむしろ強化された銘柄へ再配置する局面。AIデータセンター分野で最も非対称な上昇余地を持つのは $NBIS 。 信用収縮やGPU実行リスクで $IREN $CRWV などのネオクラウド企業が影響を受けた一方、NBIS はその懸念から相対的に隔離されている。
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Weebius逆势翻绿，但NBIS期权目标价在宏观环境下显得激进。
@Perugius__ Weebius 是少数几只翻绿的“高贝塔(high-beta)”股票之一。话虽如此，鉴于当前的宏观环境，$NBIS 180 美元的行权价略显激进。高贝塔股票的暴跌简直令人难以置信。https://t.co/M4c1lPPsNU
英文原文
@Perugius__ Weebius is one of the few high-beta stocks green. That being said $NBIS $180 strike is a bit ambitious given the current macro climate. The market crash on high-beta stocks is kind of insane. https://t.co/M4c1lPPsNU
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认为$HIMS被低估，看好Zava收购及回购计划，但更倾向资金用于增长。
@himshouse $HIMS 目前似乎被低估，尤其是随着 Zava 收购案的完成，将很快助力营收增长。拥有 2.5 亿美元的回购计划对此叙事有所帮助。不过，我仍然更希望这笔资金用于收购和增长。
英文原文
@himshouse $HIMS is seems undervalued at this point, especially with the Zava acquisition coming into help revenue growth soon. Having a $250M repurchase program helps a bit with that narrative. Still would prefer that going toward acquisitions and growth though.
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澄清 $NBIS 收入预测，强调其受超大规模云厂商驱动的惊人增长。
这里没人说过 $NBIS 在 2026 年会有 80 亿美元的实际收入(Realized Revenue)。不太明白你想表达或争论什么。 自财报发布以来，我一直坚持 80 亿美元的中位年化经常性收入(ARR) 观点，预计实际收入约为 36 亿至 42 亿美元，第四季度季度收入约为 21 亿美元。 $NBIS 正从 1.46 亿美元的季度收入增长至 21 亿美元，耗时略超 1 年，这种令人瞠目的增长仅在本十年因 $MSFT 和 $META 等超大规模云服务商(AI Hyperscalers) 的 AI 收入漏斗而实现。 这是十年一遇的机会，但你做的这种区分没有必要，因为我还没在评论区看到有人产生这种混淆。
英文原文
Nobody said here $NBIS would do $8B realized revenue in 2026. Not quite sure what you're trying to say or argue. I've been consistent on $8B midpoint ARR after earnings with likely ~$3.6B-4.2B realized revenue and ~$2.1B quarterly revenue Q4. $NBIS is ramping up from $146M quarterly revenue -> $2.1B in slightly over 1Y time, which is just mind-numbing growth and only achievable in this decade because of $MSFT $META hyperscaler revenue funnel from AI. Once in a decade opportunity, but the distinction you're making isn't necessary since I haven't seen anyone make that confusion in the comments yet.
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看好NBIS非对称收益，同时维持对CIFR等标的的多头观点。
@babyfolio 确实，$NBIS 在 Neocloud 领域的每一家公司中都具有明显的非对称上行潜力，我很乐意且能轻松解释原因。但这并不意味着我对 $CIFR、$WULF 等其他股票不看好。
英文原文
@babyfolio True, $NBIS has clear asymmetrical upside over every other company in the Neocloud sector and I'm happy + easily can explain why. That doesn't mean I'm not bullish on $CIFR, $WULF, and others though.
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对比CIFR与NBIS，认为CIFR风险更低但上行空间有限。
$CIFR 实际上是我下一个最看好的新云(Neocloud)板块标的。 我之前做过一个梯队排名，$NBIS 是 S+ 级，$CIFR 是 S 级。 但这里有个细微差别，很多人可能不知道： Nebius 捕获了 AI 云业务的整个价值链。$IREN 在其财报电话会议中明确表示，他们之所以选择与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”，同时承担了编排、软件、折旧以及 GPU 采购，而非仅做数据中心(Colo)。 正如你所说，$CIFR 因为 AWS、$GOOGL 以及 Secure 而降低了风险，这也是我喜欢这个标的的原因。通过做数据中心(Colo)，他们避免了购买和管理 GPU 集群，这也是我下调 $IREN 评级的原因，因为 $IREN 面临一个新的风险因素，而 $NBIS 没有，且此前也不存在。 超大规模客户在空间、电力和冷却方面的高利润率、类年金收入。它是该板块中风险调整后风险最低的股票之一。 然而，其上行空间远不如其他标的。特别是当你看到租赁（例如 10-15 年）时，收入爬坡要慢得多，上行空间也远小于像 $NBIS 这样的全栈纯新云标的。
英文原文
$CIFR is actually next favorite Neocloud sector pick. I made a tierlist earlier and $NBIS was S+ and $CIFR was S. But here's the difference and nuance people might not know: Nebius captures the entire value chain of the AI cloud business. $IREN said it themselves in their ER call that they did full-stack with $MSFT because of to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns", while taking on orchestration, software, and deprecation with GPUs purchases vs. colo. $CIFR is de-risked as you mentioned because of AWS, $GOOGL and finally secure, which is why I love the pick. Doing colo, they avoid purchasing/managing GPU fleets, which is why I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before. There's high-margin, annuity-like revenue for space, power, and cooling for hyperscales. It's one of the lowest-risk adjusted stocks in the sector. However, upside is not anywhere as high. Especially when you look at leases (eg. 10Y-15Y) revenue ramp is a lot slower, and upside is a lot less compared to full-stack pure Neoclouds like $NBIS.
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澄清NBIS产能售罄是需求旺盛而非瓶颈，收入受限于上线速度。
我不确定这种错误的框架来自哪里？ $NBIS 已售罄 220MW 的现有及近期互联电力，因为任何新增产能都在被全部分配。 这并非触及最大结构性产能天花板，而是对极端市场需求的验证。 预计 2026 年互联电力将达到 1 GW，他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同产能来支撑 $7-9B 的年度经常性收入(ARR) 目标。 这并不意味着他们不能像从 Q2 到 Q3 财报期间从 1 GW 扩展到 2.5 GW 那样扩大产能。他们只是售罄了任何上线的产能，而收入受限于他们能上线多少产能。
英文原文
I'm not sure where this incorrect framing comes from? $NBIS sold out of 220MW of existing and near-term connected power because any new capacity is being fully allocated. That's not hitting a maximum structural capacity ceiling, that's validation of extreme market demand. 1 GW of connected power is projected 2026 and they have 2.5 GW of contracted capacity to support the $7-9B ARR figure. That doesn't mean they can't expand their capacity like they've done from 1 GW to 2.5 GW from Q2 to Q3 earnings. They just sell out of any capacity they bring online, and revenue is limited by how much capacity they can bring online.
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Nebius是纯新云AI基建标的，无债务与执行风险，具极高非对称上行潜力。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 现价 $86.69，是剩余最纯粹的“新云”(Neocloud) 和 AI 基础设施非对称性机会。 这是收入最高的、未受 $CIFR | $WULF 及数据中心(Colo) 提供商影响的 Neocloud 标的，且没有以下问题： - 不像 $IREN、$ORCL 那样面临全栈执行带来的巨大不确定性。 - 不像 $CRWV、$APLD 等那样背负高额利息债务。 - 不像 $CLSK、$BITF、$WYFI、$SLNH 等那样在超大规模超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler) 合同上存在收入不确定性。 在 AI 板块因恐惧情绪蔓延而普遍下跌后： Nebius 依然推进：明年年化经常性收入(ARR) 中值为 $80 亿，现金超 $47 亿，企业客户多元化（包括 $META、$MSFT、$ACN、$SHOP、政府机构），高增长投资组合公司，以及经过验证的高利润率全栈业务。 鉴于需求极度旺盛、执行不确定性（利润率）以及与当前困扰市场的 OpenAI 合同依赖和信贷收紧问题相隔离： 在非对称上行潜力方面，没有任何标的能接近 Nebius。 你只需等待公司的执行落地。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left. This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no: - Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution. - High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face. - Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack. After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear: Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business. With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening: Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside. You are simply just waiting for company execution.
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NBIS虽脱离基本面但获MSCI大额流入，强烈建议买入。
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS 目前与基本面严重脱节，且我们在短短一周内获得了 MSCI 指数基金数千万至低十亿级别的资金流入。这不仅是买入，更是极其强烈的买入信号！话虽如此，目前大多数资产都在全线暴跌。
英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS is incredibly detached from fundamentals right now and we have MSCI few hundred million-low billion inflow in a week. Not just a buy but incredibly strong buy! That being said most assets are dropping like flies across the board right now.
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分析NBIS高增长与融资优势，认为综合估值被低估。
我认为你的评论正好指出了 $NBIS 增长有多疯狂：从本季度1.46亿美元营收跃升至明年单季度21亿美元以上。 因此，我们应基于 $MSFT 合同（约190亿美元，5年）、$META（30亿美元，5年）、常规客户（Cursor、Shopify等）及政府合同来审视其未来增长（明年营收），而非当前数据。 他们像 AWS 一样提供全栈 AI 云；Nebius 获取 GPU 和基础设施初始资金的方式是股份销售（可转换票据，在138美元估值下稀释40亿美元）及随时出售2500万股。这远比 $CRWV 那样承担数十亿9%-10%利息更优，因为后者会随时间直接损害利润率。 这立即为其资产负债表增加数十亿（目前现金47亿美元），用于购买 GPU 等。 然而，规模化所需的大部分现金来自合同营收，$NBIS 毛利率达50-70%，预计 EBIT 为20-30%，是利润率最高的新型云厂商之一。 话说回来，若计入现有稀释（10%+可转换票据），再看47亿美元现金、来自 Clickhouse 等投资组合资产的70多亿美元净资产值(NAV)，以及明年80亿美元预计年化经常性收入(ARR)及其利润率，它看起来完全被低估。 但若仅看本季度营收，它看起来则被高估。
英文原文
I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter. So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue. They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time. This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc. However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds. That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued. But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.
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NBIS股价脱离基本面，宏观抛售属误杀，当前估值极具吸引力。
我可以99.9%地向你保证，$NBIS 80亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的预期在几个月前并未被计入股价，分析师/市场当时的预期约为20亿美元（约2-3个月前）。 而现在我们的交易价格低于$MSFT 交易宣布后的水平（约90-100美元）。 考虑到190亿美元的交易和收入爬坡，像Northland这样的看多机构分析师曾预测40亿美元ARR。看多派FinX（包括我自己）随着明年下半年另一笔超大规模云厂商交易的达成，将预期上调至60亿-70亿美元。 随后宣布80亿美元中位ARR至90亿美元，产能达2.5 GW（人们一直说$IREN 在2.8-~3.2 GW方面拥有巨大护城河），以及在同一季度意外宣布与$META 的交易（叠加$MSFT 交易），完全是个惊喜。 然而，财报后整体下跌26%是宏观因素导致的无差别抛售，并非因为上述第1、2、3、4点关于个股预期的原因。 重点是$NBIS 股价目前完全脱离了基本面，这次抛售简直是个笑话。
英文原文
I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago). And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100). Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year. Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise. However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections. The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.
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CRWV和ORCL的债务问题不影响NBIS，但财报前抛售剧烈。
@soulbiri1 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 在地理上都与 OpenAI 存在单一依赖关系，因此它们自身的债务问题不应影响 $NBIS。不过，正如你指出的那样，在财报发布前看到相关数据和分析师预测时，抛售行情确实令人咋舌。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Both $CRWV and $ORCL are geographically monogamous with OpenAI so their own debt problems shouldn’t affect $NBIS. But yeah sell-off was wild to watch when you point out the numbers and analyst projections before earnings.
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NBIS财报数据大幅超预期却暴跌26%，令人费解。
我想知道市场在 $NBIS 上到底抽了什么。 财报发布情况如下： 1. 最乐观的分析师预测年度经常性收入(ARR)为 40 亿美元。 2. 实际表现超出该数字 100%，预计达到 80 亿美元。 3. 签约产能指引超出 150% 以上，达到 2.5 GW。 4. 宣布与 $META 达成意外的 30 亿美元合同。 5. 股价暴跌 26%。
英文原文
I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS. Goes into earnings: 1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR 2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected 3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW 4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META 5. Drops 26%
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管理层若确认Lake站点泳池派对，CIFR将获支持。
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage 如果管理层确认不排除在 Lake 站点举办泳池派对，$CIFR 将获得大量支持（包括我在内）。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage There will be a lot of support behind $CIFR (myself included) if we get a confirmation from the executive team that they're not ruling out a pool party from the Lake site.
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11月24日MSCI指数大幅流入$NBIS，虽金额未定但利好显著。
@soulbiri1 显然，11月24日 MSCI 指数对 $NBIS 的流入量在数千万美元至十亿美元区间。虽然无法确定确切数字，但这对资金流入帮助很大。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Apparently it's few hundred million inflow to low billion range for the MSCI inflow into $NBIS on Nov 24th. Can't really determine the exact number, but it helps with inflow a lot.
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NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.