个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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JPM无需收购交易所，合作即可获利。
可能不会，没有理由这样做。鉴于$JPM提供的巨大做市商流动性，他们几乎肯定能享受0%的交易手续费。他们没有理由去收购一家同质化的交易所，从而承担额外的监管麻烦和资产负债表波动。通过与Coinbase合作获得免费执行，他们就能获得交易所的同等优势，然后通过增加一个垂直业务来赚取客户价差利润。
英文原文
Probably not, no reason to. $JPM almost certainty has access to 0% fees for trading given their immense maker liquidity they provide. There's no reason for them to acquire a commoditized exchange, then take on additional regulatory headache and balance sheet volatility. They get the same benefits of an exchange by partnering with Coinbase for free execution, then just profit off customer spread with an additional vertical.
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分析LITE、COHR光子学双寡头地位及AAOI对微软亚马逊ASIC的杠杆看涨逻辑。
我手里只有 $LITE 和 $AAOI 哈哈。但我对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的看法是，它们在光子学(Photonics)领域基本处于双寡头地位。其中 $LITE 额外受益于 Google TPU 的增长杠杆。然后是 $AAOI，它具有极高的超额收益(Alpha)潜力，且是对 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 超大规模云计算厂商专用集成电路(ASIC)的杠杆式看涨押注。目前尚未有行动，也没有大幅上涨（尽管作为光子学玩家，今年反而下跌了12%），因为市场尚未对 Amazon Trainium 或 Microsoft Maia 产生炒作热度。
英文原文
I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics. With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth. Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs. No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).
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LITE因OCS垄断地位及供应瓶颈，受益于AI巨头需求。
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
英文原文
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.
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推荐光子材料供应商AXTI，市值5亿美元。
@manukafirth 另一个不错的标的是 $AXTI，它是 $LITE / 光子学(Photonics) 的材料供应商。市值5亿美元。
英文原文
@manukafirth Another good one is $AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc
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对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.
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因地缘政治原则回避小鹏，但认可其与比亚迪的商业价值。
@investingluc @xiaopenghexpeng 出于不资助地缘政治对手的原则，我避开像 $XPEV 这样的中国公司。尤其是在涉及人工智能(AI)和机器人等军事赋能技术时。否则，$XPEV 和 $BYD 都是非常有意思的公司。
英文原文
@investingluc @xiaopenghexpeng I stay away from Chinese companies like $XPEV just out of principle of not funding geopolitical opponents. Especially when it comes to military enabling technology like AI and robotics. Otherwise $XPEV and $BYD are both very interesting companies.
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作者认为 $CRCL 估值极低，基于其数字美元标准地位，在 $86 大举建仓。
如果 ChatGPT 能结合私人部门稳定币投资经验，撰写 OF 与卡网络之间的对比，我会印象深刻。机构并未对 $31 的价格望而却步，$CRCL 大幅超额认购，且稳定币 GENIUS 法案在 IPO 后通过。如帖中所述，护城河在于其作为结算和数字美元标准的网络效应。尽管可能有 Paxos USD、PayPal USD、SOFI USD 等数百种其他稳定币，但这并不意味着它们能获得广泛采用。USDC 和 USDT 已是双寡头及数字标准。我也提到这是定性论点。对于像 $RKLB 这样非标准公司（如 Circle），我认为不应使用传统估值方法。话虽如此，一家印钞机及数字美元发行商的市值为 $190 亿，被严重低估，我本人在 $86 大举建仓。我只是分享我的论点，你可以自由做反向交易。我鼓励你用行动支持你的观点！
英文原文
I’d be impressed if ChatGPT could write comparisons between OF and card networks alongside personal experiences regarding stablecoin investments in the private sector. Institutions did not balk at $31, $CRCL was vastly oversubscribed and the GENIUS act for stablecoins was passed after IPO. If you read the post, the moat is network effect given its the standard for settlement and digital dollars. There could be hundreds of other stablecoins from Paxos USD, PayPal USD, SOFI USD, and others but that doesn’t mean it will get widespread adoption. USDC and USDT are already the duopoly and digital standard. I also wrote this was the qualitative thesis. On companies like $RKLB that aren’t standard companies (like Circle) I would argue traditional valuation methods shouldn’t be used. That being said, $19B for a money printer and issuer of the currency that’s used for the digital dollar is vastly undervalued and I myself am piling in at $86. I’m just sharing my thesis, you’re free to take the other side of the trade. And I’d encourage you to back up your words!
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NBIS子公司价值或超IREN市值，仍看好两者。
确实如此。单是 $NBIS 持有的 Clickhouse 和 Avride 股份，在一两年内可能就超过 $IREN 的市值。话虽如此，我依然对两者都持看涨态度。不过有点不公平的是，Nebius 拥有两家源自 Yandex 时代的子公司，其业务正以三位数的同比增速增长。这甚至还没有计入他们的主营业务线。
英文原文
True. Both $NBIS Clickhouse and Avride stakes alone can be worth more than $IREN marketcap in a year or two. That being said I’m still bullish on both. It’s just a bit unfair though Nebius owns 4 subsidiaries from Yandex days growing triple digits y/y. That’s not even accounting for their main business line
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反驳低利率看空 $CRCL 论点，认为其作为数字美元结算网络价值远超传统估值。
低利率确实会影响 $CRCL，这也是主要的看空论点。然而，低利率环境将释放更多 USDC 的供应，并带来相比高息国债收益更多的交易量/交易性收入。Circle 需要将其交易量的变现能力从利息收入（占其利润的 90% 以上）中剥离出来。我上面的论点是，人们不应将其像金融科技(fintech)公司那样估值。如果它成为数字美联储，且 USDC 成为美元在线结算的实际货币，那么该网络及其发行商的价值将远超传统估值。
英文原文
Low interest rates does affect $CRCL and this is the main bear case thesis. However, low interest rates environments would unlock more supply in USDC + more volume/transactional based revenue compared to high interest from treasuries. Circle would need to monetize transactional volume over interest (which makes up 90%+ of their profits) My argument above is that people shouldn’t value it like a fintech though. If it becomes the digital federal reserve and USDC is the de facto settlement currency of the dollar online, both the network and the issuer is worth way beyond traditional valuations
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计划研究Maia，已持AAOI作为LITE的杠杆替代。
@itsthesquonky 我今天会对此做一些研究，谢谢提醒。 我已经持有一些微型股，比如 $AAOI，在我看来它只是 $LITE 的杠杆版，仅仅是为了押注 $MSFT Maia 的放量。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout. I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp. There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it
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质疑 $COIN 估值，认为其交易所业务面临竞争且 USDC 分成优势难保。
关于 $COIN，我略有异议。随着 2026 年与 $CRCL 的合同重新谈判临近，其灵活性远比你想象的低。目前 Coinbase 受益于 50% 的 USDC 收入分成及交易所业务，还有来自托管（如 Blackrock ETFs）的价值。但长期来看，其交易所板块可能会被 $HOOD 和 Bitfinex 等零费率交易所蚕食。至于那 50% 的“金蛋”收入分成：Circle 存在法律漏洞可脱离 Coinbase。我确信 Circle 长期会找到办法。例如，《天才法案》明确禁止稳定币发行方向持有者支付利息 -> 借此合法停止支付分成。或者 50/50 的分成在 2027 年合同谈判中降至 75/25。但你只需 180 亿美元就能获得直接发行商的纯粹非对称收益，而交易所附加部分却需 660 亿美元。
英文原文
For $COIN, slighty disagree. It's a lot less versatile than you think as 2026 contract renegotiation with $CRCL is coming up. Right now Coinbase benefits from 50% USDC rev split + exchange business. Then there's value derived from Custody (eg. Blackrock ETFs). But that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run. As for that 50% revenue split of the golden egg: there's legal loopholes for Circle to depeg from Coinbase. And I'm pretty sure Circle will find a way in the long run. Eg. Genius Act, explicitly bans stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders -> using that to legally stop paying them a split. Or the 50/50 split to drop to something like 75/25 from contract negotiation by 2027. But you can get pure play asymmetry with the direct issuer for $18B or the exchange-add on for $66B.
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解析Circle商业模式：类银行利差+无限扩展，支撑高估值。
别担心！我乐于免费分享观点，主要是为了帮助他人获得满足感。 我通过市场交易获利，所以个人觉得没必要将粉丝变现。 关于那个问题： $CRCL 的商业模式本质上是金融界的“圣杯”：100% 毛利率，零资本成本，以及无限可扩展性。 它简直是一台不停歇的印钞机，这也是其估值/溢价高的原因。 银行：2-4% 利息的“储蓄账户”。他们以 6% 贷出。利差约 2-4%。 Circle：你持有 USDC 时支付 0% 利息。他们通过国债以约 5% 借给美国政府。他们的利差是完整的约 5%。 我故意简化以解释概念（未计入与 $COIN 的收入分成等细节）： 如果 Circle 流通量（USDC）为 600 亿美元：600 亿 × 5% 收益率 = 每年 30 亿美元无风险收入。 看 Tether，2024 年报告利润约 130 亿美元。他们也仅用不到 100 名员工就实现了这一点。他们拿“免费资金”（用户存款），购买国债（安全 5%）+ BTC。 Circle + Tether 的商业模式可以说是世界上最好的： 从用户那里“印”免费钱，以 X% 借给政府，赚取利差。如果美联储降息至 0%，印钞机不会停，只是像银行一样切换到服务/交易相关收入（但显然会受一点影响）。 如果 USDC 扩展到 1 万亿+ 市值或作为数字化美元事实标准的 2 万亿+，若赚取 5%，利润将达（500-1000 亿美元/年）。 而目前 Circle 市值 180-200 亿美元，流通供应量 770 亿美元。 它也是纯软件，因此可以像 Tether 一样以极少员工扩张，不像银行有极高的 overhead（运营开销）。 所以基本上无限可扩展的商业模式（印钞机）结合极高利润率 = 高估值。
英文原文
No worries! I love sharing my thoughts for free mainly for fulfillment in helping others. I make money through markets so I personally don't see any reason why I would need to monetize followers. As for the question: $CRCL's business model is essentially the "Holy Grail" of finance: 100% gross margins, zero cost of capital, and infinite scalability It's literally a non-stop money printer, which is why it yields high valuation/premiums. Banks: 2-4% interest "savings account". They lend it out at 6%. Margin ~2-4%. Circle: Pays you 0%. (when you hold USDC). They lend it to the US Government (via Treasuries) at ~5%. Their margin is the full ~5%. I've dumbing it down on purpose to explain the concept (not factoring in stuff like revenue split with $COIN) but: If Circle has $60 Billion in circulation (USDC): $60B × 5% yield = $3 Billion/year risk-free revenue. If we look at Tether, in 2024, Tether reported ~$13 Billion in profit. They achieved this with fewer than 100 employees too. They took the "free money" (users' deposits), bought Treasuries (safe 5%) + BTC as well. Circle + Tether business models are arguably the best in the world: Print free money (from users), lend at X% to gov, pocket the spread. If Fed cuts to 0%, the money printer doesn't stop, it just shifts gears like banks to service/TX related revenues (but obviously hurts a bit) If USDC expands to $1T+ marketcap or $2T+ as the the de facto standard for a digitalized dollar, profits will be ($50-$100B /year) if they make 5% off that. And right now Circle is a $18-20B marketcap with $77B circulating supply. It's pure software too, so it can expand off low employee counts like Tether, unlike banks that have extremely high overhead. So basically infinitely scalable business model (money printer) combined with extremely high margins = high valuation.
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博主在 $CRCL 大跌后建仓，计划长期持有以捕捉上行空间。
谢谢，我等了很久才建立 $CRCL 的长期头寸。我们经历了加密板块清算、流通盘解禁、降息以及高贝塔股票抛售，最终导致股价从高点下跌 70%。现在 Circle 终于回到了一个合理的价位，因此我在股价跌至 $70 时建立了头寸。我最初在 IPO 期间就下了买单，但随后股价涨至 $250+。自那以来有很多积极进展，所以从投资者角度来看，我非常乐意持有并进行多年长期投资。云服务提供商(CSP)策略也不错，但我更贪婪地想要捕捉上行空间。
英文原文
Thanks, I was waiting forever to build long positions on $CRCL. We had crypto sector liquidations, float unlock, interest rate cuts, and high beta stock selloff, finally causing a 70% drop from the highs. Now Circle is finally at a respectable price again, so I built up positions on the drop to $70. I did originally place buy orders during the IPO but then it just went to $250+. There’s been a lot more positive developments since so from an investor’s perspective, very happy hold + multi year long for me. CSPs is also a good strategy, but I’m a little more greedy trying to capture the upside.
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Circle作为美元数字化延伸，具国家安全和网络效应，建议极度做多。
1000%+ 的 Circle 论点：USDC 与私营部门美联储的崛起。 Circle $CRCL，连同 $NBIS 等标的，是我进入 2026 年高确信度的多头持仓，原因只有一个： Circle 已成为美国财政部的私营部门延伸。 在 180 亿美元市值下。 这是一个 10 倍以上的世代性机会，利用美元变得可编程且纯数字化的货币转变。 Circle 不是一家金融科技(Fintech)公司。它不应像传统公司那样被估值。作为数字印钞机，它是美国政府的国家安全利益。 以下是做多 Circle 的定性理由： 1. Circle 购买美国国债并作为美国财政部的私营部门延伸收取利息。 - 随着 USDC 市值扩张，Circle 购买更多短期美国国债。他们正成为世界上最大的单一美国债务持有者之一。 - 在 BRICS 和其他集团试图去美元化的时代，美国政府需要一种数字美元出口。Circle 将美元霸权瞬间传播给全球任何人，绕过当地银行限制。 - Circle 成为对其他外币（低利率或贬值）的有效“做空” -> 将本地货币转换为 Circle (USD) -> 买入美国债务。 对于 $CRCL：美国政府无法承受 Circle 失败。它拥有传统金融科技所没有的隐性“国家支持”战略护城河。 在 180 亿美元的估值下。 2. 网络效应： Circle + USDC 已经捕获了网络效应。 - 现在有数百种稳定币。Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe 以及更多即将推出的。但 Circle + USDC 已经捕获了美国市场的网络效应（USDT 仍在国际上广泛使用）。 现在每个人都用 Circle USDC 结算，无论是 Visa、Stripe、银行还是更多。网络效应是 Meta/Reddit 拥有护城河的原因。也是为什么比特币市值超过 1.5 万亿美元。以及为什么 USDC 不会被新稳定币取代。 USDC 已成为结算、发行和存储的标准，并吞噬了所有以前的结算方法，如 T+2 或更长的 Swift/ACH 轨道。 Circle 在采用和公认的结算基础设施方面确保了终极网络效应。 随着使用量的增长 -> Circle 印更多的钱。 3. 私营到公开的滞后： 很多人不知道，但我私下也帮助硅谷风险投资公司进行尽职调查，针对金融科技种子/A/B 轮投资。 从个人经验来看，我看到创纪录的资金涌入 USDC 相关公司：无论是稳定币新银行（如由 USDC 驱动的 Mecury 银行）还是带有 USDC 的结算基础设施。 当然还有许多关于私营部门收购的公开新闻，例如 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购 bridge，或银行开始研究 M&A 以创建 USDC 相关产品。 多年前这是 AI，我们看到了从 Anthropic 到 NVDA 在一两年后崛起的成果。 现在是稳定币 + USDC。 公开市场是滞后指标，它们尚未定价 USDC 成为公认结算轨道的必然性（比特币是数字黄金，USDC 是美元/结算）。 我们看到了 Circle 主要因浮动头寸动态而抛售，但我们可能会看到对冲基金试图积累对美元未来印钞机的控制权。 _ $CRCL 不仅仅是一只“加密股票”或“金融科技公司”，也不应像它们那样被估值（尤其是根据降息定价盈利能力）。 它基本上是美国美元的私营部门数字化。 自 GENIUS 法案以来，我们看到像 Circle 这样的公司申请特许状，并将 USDC 有效地连接到联邦储备系统。 现在我们终于看到了新的央行数字货币(CBDC) 的开始，但这次是通过 Circle 发行和私有化。 在 $84（180 亿美元市值）极度做多 Circle，作为地缘政治工具、标准结算货币以及美国财政部的私营部门延伸。
英文原文
The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve. Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason: Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. At a $18B MC. A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital. Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer. Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle: 1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. - As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world. - In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions. - Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt. For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have. At an $18B valuation. 2. Network effect: Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect. - There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally). Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins. USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH. Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure. With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money. 3. The Private-to-Public Lag: Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side. From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC. And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products. Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later. Now it's stablecoins + USDC. Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement). We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD. _ $CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts). It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar. Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system. And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle. Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.
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重申NBIS长期看涨至250美元，对期权亏损致歉。
是的，我一个月前说 $NBIS 即使在 130 美元时也是极强的买入标的，这一观点我至今仍坚持，如果它交易在 125 美元我会买入。我认为跌至 75 美元就像 $HOOD 在关税恐慌中跌至 28 美元然后随着散户投降涨至 100 美元以上那样。如果人们跟随我的 Nebius 论点使用本月到期的期权，我感到非常内疚。我自己也因下跌在 3 月/5 月到期的期权上损失惨重。但中长期我相信一旦他们在 2026 年实现管理层预测，$NBIS 轻松突破 250 美元。
英文原文
Yep, you’re correct when I said that $NBIS is an extremely strong buy even at $130 a month ago. I still maintain that today, and would be buying Nebius if it were trading at $125. I believe the drop to $75 is like the moment when $HOOD dropped to $28 during tariff fears then went to $100+ when retail capitulated. I do feel extremely guilty if people followed my thesis on Nebius with options that expired this month. I lost a lot of money myself so far on March/May expiry options from the drop. But medium-long term I believe $NBIS easily blows past $250 once they achieve management projections in 2026
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作者认为AAOI和POET虽具十倍潜力但因执行风险未去风险化，不属于高确信度标的。
对我个人而言：当一家公司在根本上已“去风险化(de-risked)”并正从该点迈向规模化时，我才视其为“高确信度(high conviction)”标的。 例如，$NBIS 在与微软达成交易后。在光子学(photonics)领域，我个人更看好 $AAOI 而非 $POET。但它们都尚未“去风险化”。 正如你提到的，Poet 受益于 Celestial（已被 $MRVL 收购）。Marvell 基本上通过 Celestial 向超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)出售 Poet 的中介层(interposer)，用于连接 TPU/Trainium。 但这中间隔着多层环节。 $AAOI 已经拥有与超大规模云厂商的直接合同，例如与 $AMZN 合作 Trainium，与 $MSFT 合作 Maia。此外还有类似 $ALAB 与亚马逊那样的股权协议。 然而，它们实现了完全垂直整合且工厂建在德克萨斯州。如果能让整个供应链在美国实现规模化并完美执行，它们有巨大的10倍增长潜力。 但由于相比 $COHR 规模较小，$AAOI 存在巨大的执行风险，因此不属于高确信度标的。$POET 同理，目前尚无让我完全确信的去风险化因素。 不过，Poet 和 AAOI 都是具备10倍潜力的光子学标的，这也是我持仓部分 $AAOI 的原因，但它们都不属于高确信度投资。
英文原文
For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale. For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet". So Poet as you mentioned, benefits from Celestial, which got acquired $MRVL. Marvell basically sells Poet's interposer via Celestial to hyperscalers for connecting tpus/trainium. But this is via multiple hops away. $AAOI already had direct hyperscaler contracts like $AMZN for Trainium + $MSFT for Maia. And equity agreements like what $ALAB has for Amazon. However, they're fully vertically integrated + built in Texas. They have a pretty big potential to 10X if they can get the whole supply chain to scale in America + perfect execution. But because they're at lower scale compared to $COHR, $AAOI has huge execution risk + it's not high-conviction. Same with $POET, there's no de-risking factor yet that would make me fully convinced. However, Poet and AAOI are both photonics plays that can 10x, which is why I have some $AAOI in my portfolio, but neither are high conviction.
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通过对比 IREN 缺乏核心 AI 资产，论证 NBIS 的竞争优势。
我会用一个关于 $NBIS 与 $IREN 的问题来回答你的问题。 IREN 是否拥有： - 一家由 Uber 规模化运营的 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）公司 - 一家被从 Tesla 到 Meta 等所有顶级公司使用的 DB（数据库）公司 - 一家被 Amazon、Anthropic 等使用的 AI 标注公司？ 这些业务是否都随着 Nebius 的主营业务实现了 100%+ 的同比增长？
英文原文
I will answer your question with a question regarding $NBIS vs $IREN. Does IREN have a: - FSD lvl4 robotaxi company scaled by Uber - a DB company used by every single top company from Tesla to Meta - an AI labeling company used by Amazon, Anthropic and others? Each growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside Nebius's main business?
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说明稳定币与 BTC 下行周期相对隔离
好问题。稳定币其实和 BTC 下跌趋势是分开的，尽管算法层面会影响该行业公司/资产的市值。 即使加密价格下跌，USDC/Tether 的供应量也会增加。机构会在加密下行周期中把 BTC 卖成 USDT/USDC，而不是放在银行账户里。 尤其现在在风投领域，Lightspeed、Sequoia 等都在把钱投向和稳定币相关的公司，比如 neobank；其中很多投资会在 6 个月到 1 年后开始产生回报。 我会在另一篇帖子里写更深入的 thesis，但总体上，我看好稳定币和 Bitcoin；即使 Bitcoin 处于下行趋势，稳定币和发行方也是相对隔离的。
英文原文
Good question, stablecoins are actually separate from the BTC downtrend, even though algorithmically this affects the marketcaps of companies/assets in the sector. USDC/Tether increases in supply even as crypto prices go down. Institutions sell BTC for USDT/USDC while crypto is in a downtrend instead of holding it in bank accounts. Especially in venture capital right now, lightspeed/sequioa/etc. are pouring money into stablecoin related companies like Neobanks, and lot of these investments pay dividends 6 months.-1 year later. I'll write up a more in-depth thesis in another post but generally, I'm bullish on stablecoins and Bitcoin, and even if Bitcoin is in a downtrend, stablecoins + issuers are isolated.
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列出 Circle 的几个主要空头情景
几个空头情景： - 美联储推出自己的 CBDC，比如 Fed Coin，或者推出另一个稳定币来直接竞争。 - 美联储继续降息到 1%，而 $CRCL 必须不断印 USDC 来弥补收入损失。 - 监管，比如下一届政府任命 Gary Gensler 这类人物，或者 USDC 在其他国家被禁。 但如果事情继续按现在的方向发展，Circle 未来应该是一家 500 亿美元以上的公司。
英文原文
Few bear cases: - Fed creates it's own CBDC like Fed Coin or another stablecoin to compete directly. - Fed keeps cutting rates down to 1% and $CRCL needs to keep printing USDC to make up for lost revenue. - Regulation - eg. next administration puts in a gary gensler or usdc gets banned in other countries But if things go the way they're going now, Circle deserves to be a $50B+ company down the road.
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解释此前回避 Circle 是因为流通盘动态，现在重新看多
可以。所以我之前一直说，在 Circle 市值 600 亿美元时，要避开 Circle，或者做空 $CRCL、做多 $COIN。 原因是大家没理解流通盘动态。 大部分流通股被锁定，不能卖，类似于 BULL IPO。等流通股释放后，Circle 股价就崩了。 降息也会伤害稳定币铸币利息带来的盈利能力，但流通盘动态才是压倒性的最大因素。 我一直看好 USDC，但市值非常关键。现在它回到 180 亿美元，就变成了极强的买入机会。
英文原文
Sure, so I've been saying avoid Circle or short $CRCL long $COIN when Circle was trading at a $60B marketcap. This was because people didn't understand float dynamics. Majority of the float was locked up and couldn't be sold, similar to BULL IPO. When float was released, the price on Circle crashed. There's stuff like rate cuts too hurting profitability from interest on minted stablecoins, but float dynamics was the biggest factor by a longshot. I've always been bullish on USDC, but market cap plays a huge role. Now it's an extraordinarily strong buy back at $18B
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认为 USDC 已成为结算标准，价值远超当前估值
$CRCL 是稳定币，和 Ethereum 或 Solana 这类 L1 没什么关系，因为它们并不重要。 thesis 在于，它正在成为一种结算标准（Visa、PayPal、YouTube 等），而这种网络效应的价值远远超过它 170 亿美元的估值。 这既符合美国政府把更多人纳入美元/美国债务体系的战略利益，也符合全球公司的利益。 人们当然可以铸造 PayPal USD、Paxos USD 等，但 USDC 基本已经成了大家认可的标准，这一点极其、极其有价值。
英文原文
$CRCL is stablecoins, has nothing to do with L1s like Ethereum or Solana since it doesn’t matter. Thesis involves that it’s becoming just a standard for settlement (visa, PayPal, YouTube, etc.) and that network effect is worth infinitely more than its $17B valuation both in us government strategic interest to get people into the US dollar/debt system as well as the global companies. People can mint PayPal usd, paxos usd, etc but USDC has basically become the agreed upon standard and this is incredibly, incredibly valuable.
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比较一组高增长标的的高估和低估程度
所以我会说，$RKLB 现在肯定是最被高估的。 $LITE 正接近超买区间，但考虑到它在 TPUv7、Trainium 和 Blackwell 芯片中的关键性，它确实值得重估。 $NBIS 和 $CRCL 是这组里最被低估的，然后是 $ALAB。
英文原文
So I’d say $RKLB is definitely the most overvalued right now. $LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips. $NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch, then goes $ALAB.
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列出更稳的十倍股和小盘 moonshot
如果说“更安全”的 10 倍股，我会说未来 5 年是 $RKLB 和 $NBIS。 我完全能想象 Rocket Lab 有一天到 3000 亿美元估值，Nebius 到 2000 亿美元估值。 市值越小，10 倍概率越高（比如低于 20 亿美元）。显然，对 $HOOD 这类公司来说，一年翻倍要难得多。 但在小盘股里，$AAOI、$WLAC 和 $TE 是我喜欢小仓位参与的那类 moonshot。
英文原文
So for a “safer” 10x. I’d say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation and Nebius at $200B one day. The chance of a 10x increases the smaller marketcap they are (eg. Sub $2B), and it’s obviously much harder for companies like $HOOD to double in a year. But for smaller caps, $AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in.
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公布 2026 年五只高信念多倍股
我在个人组合的极端增长高信念篮子里新增了 2 只股票。 在更长时间框架上，我对高信念股票从来没错过（比如 $HOOD 从 18 美元到 100+ 美元）。 我 2026 年的 5 只高信念多倍股现在是： $NBIS - AI 算力和 Robotaxi $RKLB - 太空 $ALAB - 连接 新增的两只是： $CRCL - 印钞机 $LITE - hyperscaler ASIC 我后面会写 Circle 和 Lite 的更长 DD thesis。 我有信心，只持有这 5 只，就会大幅跑赢 99.9% 的组合。
英文原文
I’ve added 2 new stocks to my extreme growth high conviction basket in my personal portfolio. I’ve never been wrong before about high conviction stocks on longer timeframes (eg. $HOOD $18 -> $100+) My 5 high conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026 are now: $NBIS - AI Compute and Robotaxis $RKLB - Space $ALAB - Connectivity And the two new ones are: $CRCL - Money Printer $LITE - Hyperscaler ASICs I’ll do longer DD thesis on Circle and Lite on follow ups. I’m confident having just these 5 will heavily outperform 99.9% of portfolios.
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称 NBIS 即使更高也想买，但现金不足
@soulbiri1 对。如果 $NBIS 今天是 135 美元，我还是会买；但很遗憾，在下跌尾端我已经没有足够干火药继续部署了。 最后我买了光子玩家和 Circle 的长期仓位。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yep. If $NBIS was $135 today I’d still buying - but ran out of dry capital to deploy on the full tail end of the drop sadly. Ended up buying long term positions in photonics players and Circle though
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认为 Nebius 基本面没变，情绪转向且收购叙事增强
像 $NBIS 这样的公司，基本面没有任何变化（除了继续改善）。变化的只是市场情绪突然切换了。 但现在，Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 这样的人突然出来说：“Nebius 可能在 2026 年被 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 这样的 hyperscaler 收购”，这极其利多。
英文原文
Nothings fundamentally changed (aside from improving) about companies like $NBIS. Aside from the sentiment flipping the switch. But suddenly we have people like Dan Ives from Wedbush going out and saying "Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN " in 2026, which is incredibly bullish.
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认为 TAE 若商业化聚变，DJT 估值上限很高
@Toy0tomi_H TAE 是硅谷聚变能源的皇冠明珠，所以它要和 $DJT 合并的消息真的让我措手不及。 如果 TAE 到 2030 年成功商业化聚变，1000 亿美元以上估值都算极其保守，哈哈。
英文原文
@Toy0tomi_H TAE is silicon valley's crown jewel for fusion energy, so the news about merging with $DJT really caught me off guard. If TAE successfully commercializes fusion by 2030, $100B+ is extremely conservative lol.
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梳理 DJT 从社交媒体到聚变收购的荒诞估值难题
$DJT 刚刚变成股票市场的皇冠明珠了吗？ 我真的难以置信： 1. 被 X/Meta 封禁 2. IPO 一个社交媒体创业公司 3. 卖圣经、西装和运动鞋 4. 成为美国总统 5. 卖 10 万美元陀飞轮手表 6. 发行 memecoin 7. 发行 crypto ETF 8. 购入数十亿美元 Bitcoin 并建立战略储备 9. 发行 USD1 稳定币 10. 收购 Google 宠爱的核聚变公司，而且它恰好是世界领导者 （Google 真的派工程师去帮 TAE 反应堆稳定等离子体，高盛也是投资者） -> 股价上涨 46%。 $DJT 现在因为 TAE 真的变得可投资了吗（可能还结合总统审批来加速监管通关）？ 市场是不是正难以置信地看着下一个 Microsoft 形成？ 给 Trump 的公司估值，真是一个绝对头疼的问题。
英文原文
Did $DJT just become the crown jewel of the stock market? I’m genuinely in disbelief: 1. Get Banned from X/Meta 2. IPO social media startup 3. Sell Bibles, Suits, and Sneakers 4. Become US President 5. Sell $100K Tourbillion Watches 6. Launch memecoin 7. Launch crypto ETFs 8. Acquire billions in Bitcoin and build a strategic reserve 9. Launch USD1 Stablecoin 10. Acquire Google-Darling Nuclear Fusion company that’s happens to be the world leader. (Google literally sent their engineers to stabilize plasma in TAE’s reactors + Goldman Sachs are investors) -> Send stock up 46%. Did $DJT actually investable now with TAE (likely combing president approval for speed running regulation)? And are markets watching in disbelief of the next Microsoft in making? How you value Trump’s company is an absolute headache.
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NBIS 从 140 跌到 80 令人意外，但仍不卖
@soulbiri1 我心里的 WSB 赌徒正在低声说：卖掉一切，加杠杆满仓 $NBIS。 不过从 140 美元跌到 80 美元确实非常令人意外，很难相信它还能比这低很多。 我不会卖！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 The WSB degen inside of me is whispering sell everything and full port $NBIS on margin. The drop from $140 to $80 though was extremely surprising and it's hard to believe it goes a lot lower than this. I'm not selling!