个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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推测可能是ATM增发，具体抛售时间需待下季披露。
@yianisz 也可能是2500万股的自动股权融资(ATM)机制在运行。我们直到下个季度才知道这些股份何时在公开市场售出。
英文原文
@yianisz Could also be the 25 million share ATM running. We don’t know when shares are sold on the open market until next quarter
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认为META和NBIS被低估，建议维持现有持仓。
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho 两者都被低估了，我会保持对 $META 和 $NBIS 的现有持仓不变。
英文原文
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho Both are undervalued I’d just keep positions in $META and $NBIS as is
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指出Arbe双业务模式，建议Robotaxi赛道对标而非跨业务比较。
@Sandeman52 提醒一下，Arbe Robotics ($ARBE) 拥有两种商业模式。在这条推文中，你将 Waymo 与 Arbe 的自动驾驶食品配送板块进行了比较。 更恰当的比较应该是 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）对 Robotaxi。 例如，在 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级别、运营规模（例如 Arbe 与 $UBER 在德克萨斯州的启动）等方面的差异。
英文原文
@Sandeman52 Just a heads up, Avride has two business models. In this post you were comparing Waymo with Avride’s autonomous food delivery section. Better comparison would be robotaxi vs robotaxi. Eg. Differences in fsd-level 4, operational scale (eg. Avride launch in Texas with $UBER).
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看好$NBIS长期表现，认为其将摆脱短期波动大幅跑赢。
$NBIS 刚刚经历了一段“修炼期”，此前被它最亲密的朋友 Macrosuke 背叛。 我坚信在未来的一两个月内，凭借新获得的“剧情护甲”，它将强势复苏。 在之前大幅盈利后，我的持仓目前接近成本价。但只要你的仓位没有被强制平仓，长期来看它应该会大幅跑赢大盘。
英文原文
$NBIS is just in its training arc after being betrayed by its closest friend Macrosuke. Strong faith it will recover with newfound plot armor in the upcoming month or two. I’m around cost average now after being up a ton but as long as you didn’t get margined out of your position, long term it should heavy outperform.
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$FLY 为情绪驱动型标的，待中程飞行器推出后市值有望翻倍。
是的，$FLY 是 2026 年的标的，只需持有直到可重复使用中程飞行器推出。此外，它是一只高贝塔值股票，单日波动可达 20%。 如果我没记错，诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司参与了“金穹顶”项目，我认为人们尚未将这一点与 $FLY 联系起来。 其营收尚不足以支撑市值，因此在中程飞行器问世前，它主要是一只情绪驱动型股票。 如果他们继 SpaceX 之后推出第二款可重复使用中程飞行器，我会非常惊讶其市值会低于 100 亿美元（目前为 25 亿美元）。
英文原文
Yeah $FLY is 2026 play, just need to bag hold until reusable medium lift comes out. Also another high beta stock capable of moving 20% in a day. Northrop if I remember correctly was in the golden dome project and I don’t think people are making the association with fly yet. Doesn’t really have the revenue to back up marketcap so it’s largely a sentiment stock until medium lift. I would be extremely surprised if the marktcap was under $10B ($2.5B now) if they made the second reusable medium lift after SpaceX
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提及NBIS Q2财报电话会议中的口头信息难以确证。
@OperationATM $NBIS 2025年第二季度财报电话会议。是的，这只是口头提及，所以很难确切了解 https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
英文原文
@OperationATM $NBIS Q2 2025 earnings call. Yeah it’s only mentioned verbally so it’s a bit hard to know https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
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认为$NBIS因FSD收入预期而被严重低估。
@EarningsMindset 是的，管理层已经预测在2-3年内，来自Avride FSD（完全自动驾驶）的收入将达到数十亿美元。对于$NBIS来说，这被极度低估了。 https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
英文原文
@EarningsMindset Yeah management already projected few billion in revenue from Avride FSD in 2-3 years. Extremely underpriced for $NBIS https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
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NBIS因自动驾驶出租车业务被低估，市值仅210亿。
是的，完全不明白为什么人们不更多地讨论 $NBIS 的自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）业务，毕竟他们拥有第四级自动驾驶（Level 4 FSD）能力，且将在几天内启动。人们购买 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 以获取相关敞口，但 $NBIS 市值仅为 210 亿美元，除了自动驾驶出租车外，还有许多其他公司和核心业务相伴。它可能是市场上最被误解且被低估的成长型公司之一。不幸的是，金融圈（finx）只是一个微小的泡沫，即使这里的人开始理解，其他地方大多数人甚至不知道 Nebius 拥有一家已研发 7 年的自动驾驶出租车公司。
英文原文
Yeah, zero clue why people aren’t talking more about $NBIS for robotaxis when they have fsd level 4 and are launching in a few days. People buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for exposure, but $NBIS is just sitting there at a $21B marketcap with many other companies + core businesses to go alongside robotaxis. Probably one of the most misunderstood and undervalued growth companies in the market. Unfortunately finx is a tiny bubble so even if people start to understand it here, majority of people elsewhere wouldn’t even know Nebius owns a robotaxi company that’s been in development for the past 7 years
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看好NBIS高弹性及长期增长潜力，认为当前市场低估其价值。
是的，$NBIS 是一只极高贝塔（Beta）的股票，能在1周内波动30-40%。特别是到了12月，如果有降息+圣诞行情（如果没有日元套利交易（Yen Carry Trade）的干扰），可能会直线上涨。但即使 $NBIS 涨到160美元我也不会卖出，因为这更多关乎市场提前多久给股票定价。（目前市场戴着眼罩，看向错误的方向）2026年的前瞻数据（Forward Numbers）将非常强劲，2027年更是未知。当你的核心业务可能在两年内达到130亿美元+的年经常性收入（ARR），且所有副业业务同比增长100%+时，未来不久很容易成为一家1000亿美元+的公司。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is an extremely high beta stock capable of moving 30-40% in 1 week timeframes. Especially come December when there’s a rate cut + Santa rally (if there’s no yen carry trade shenanigans), could see a straight line up. But even if $NBIS were $160 I wouldn’t sell it because it’s more of how long ahead the market prices in a stock. (Right now markets are wearing blindfolds and looking the wrong direction) Forward numbers are just blowout for 2026, and who knows for 2027. When your core business is probably doing $13B+ ARR in two years and all your side businesses are scaling 100%+ Y/Y, could easily be a $100B+ company in the near future.
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通过拆解子公司业务与高增长数据，论证 $NBIS 分部估值被低估。
没有大家想的那么久！ 我对过去提到的任何与金融相关的内容都有极其敏锐的记忆。所以我只是即兴拼凑线索，然后做一些额外的研究来核实 $NBIS 的事实。 我记得对于 Avride，人们一直将其与小型食品配送车联系在一起，所以想发布一篇关于自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）方面（这是主要机会）的更新、增长、机会以及他们具体业务的深度分析。 对于 Toloka，人们只是提起这个名字，但并不理解其估值、增长、客户或具体业务。所以想发这篇帖子。 Clickhouse 可能是大家最了解的一个，但人们没有意识到许多 Nebius 子公司的同比增长率都是三位数（通常 30-45% 就算很好了），所以 140% 是非常高的 lol。 当我提到分部加总估值（Sum of Part Valuation）被极度低估时，帮助人们自己得出这个结论，而不是只听我的一面之词，会更有帮助。所以我只是尝试提供我内部思考的论证。
英文原文
Not as long as people think! I have an extremely sharp memory of anything financial related that gets mentioned in the past. So I just kind of piece things together on the fly and then do some additional research to double check facts for $NBIS. I remember for Avride people kept associating it with the small food delivery carts so wanted to post a deeper dive into the robotaxi aspect (which is the main opportunity) updates, growth, opportunity + what they do. For Toloka people just drop the name but don’t understand valuations, growth, customers, or what they do exactly. So wanted to make this post. Clickhouse is probably the most understood one but people don’t realize many of Nebius subsidiaries are growing triple digits Y/Y (usually 30-45% is good) so 140% is extremely high lol. When I talk about sum of part valuation being extremely undervalued, it helps for people to come to that conclusion themselves rather than taking my word for it. So I just try to provide the argument I’m thinking about internally
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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指出市场严重低估 $NBIS 的 L4 自动驾驶业务及其与 Uber 合作的巨大潜力。
我看到的关于 Avride 的帖子主要围绕小型配送机器人！真正的价值来自于 $NBIS 自 2017 年以来一直在开发的自动驾驶 FSD（完全自动驾驶系统）L4 级部门。 人们把 Clickhouse 当作金蛋，但真正的 $300B+ 美元机会在于 Avride 与 $UBER 大规模合作，与 Waymo / $TSLA 竞争。 我想指出 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力，通过深入挖掘其分部加总价值，市场对此严重、严重低估。 这不仅仅是“估值为 $X”然后打个 40% 的折扣，它还将以极其荒谬的高速增长，就像其核心业务一样。
英文原文
I've seen posts about Avride but they're mainly around the small delivery robots! The real value comes from the self-driving FSD level 4 division that $NBIS has been developing since 2017. People namedrop Clickhouse a the golden egg, but the $300B+ dollar opportunity is with Avride + $UBER at scale competing vs Waymo / $TSLA. Wanted to point out the asymmetrical upside with $NBIS by doing a deeper dive about sum of parts that the market severely, severely undervalues. It's not just "valued at $X" and slash a 40% discount on it, it's also about to grow at extremely absurd rates like their core business.
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NBIS旗下Avride具L4自动驾驶能力，有望成高增长黑马。
精彩的帖子。如果在日本庆祝的话，感恩节快乐！ 核心论点是，Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）是一个数万亿美元规模的巨大市场，人们正在通过投资 $TSLA 和 $GOOGL 来寻求该领域的敞口。 然而，在特斯拉、亚马逊、谷歌、现代这五大主要玩家中，鲜为人知的另一家是 $NBIS 旗下的 Avride，它拥有 Level 4（L4）级完全自动驾驶技术。经过7年的开发和研发投资，该公司正与 $UBER 一起迈向商业化，并与 Waymo 和 Tesla 展开竞争。 因此，如果 Nebius 在核心的数据中心业务之外，还拥有一家并行且超高速增长的无名子公司，它将成为市场上增长最快的公司之一。
英文原文
素晴らしい投稿ですね。そして、日本で祝っているなら、ハッピーサンクスギビング！ 主張の核心は、ロボタクシーは数兆ドル規模の巨大市場であり、その分野へのエクスポージャーを求めて人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です。 しかし、テスラ、アマゾン、グーグル、ヒュンダイの5つの主要プレーヤーのうち、多くの人が知らないもう1社、 $NBIS 傘下の Avride はレベル4の完全自動運転を持っています。そしてこの企業は、7年にわたる開発と研究開発投資を経て $UBER と共に商用化へ向けて動き出し、Waymo や Tesla と競争しようとしています。 このように、コアであるデータセンタービジネスと並行して超高速で成長する無名の子会社を抱えている場合、Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです。
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看好$NBIS极高增速及低市值潜力，类比Waymo扩张前景。
我见过$HOOD，也见过$META在IPO时的表现。除了$NVDA可能之外，我从未见过任何单一公司能像$NBIS这样以如此惊人的速度扩张。 在年经常性收入(ARR)已达10亿美元以上且同比增长300%+的基础上，还能实现700%+的同比增长，这种增长速度简直高得令人难以置信。 这仅仅是核心业务的表现。 在我上面的帖子中，Avride正处于像Waymo与$UBER合作那样大规模扩张的边缘。如果他们在德克萨斯州的启动顺利，我们可能会在地图上的各个地方看到它的出现。 很难给出目标价。我通常不会为单只股票唱多，但我从未见过一只具有如此荒谬高潜力的股票，其市值却如此之低。
英文原文
I've seen $HOOD, I've seen $META at IPO. Aside from maybe $NVDA, I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS. Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth. That's just the core business alone. In my post above, Avride is at the precipice of scaling like Waymo with $UBER. If their Texas launch goes well, we might just see this pop up everywhere around the map. Hard to give a price target. I normally don't bullpost a single stock but I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.
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计划通过分部估值分析 Clickhouse 潜力，以阐释 Nebius 价值。
Clickhouse 确实非常强大(OP)，但我尚未对其进行单独分析，因为 $NBIS 仅持有 28% 的股份。不过，我完全能看到 Clickhouse 未来成为一家市值 500 亿美元的公司，我可能会写一篇后续帖子，涵盖所有分部估值(Sum-of-Parts)，以帮助人们理解 Nebius 的价值主张。
英文原文
clickhouse is pretty OP, but haven't made an individual analysis on that yet since $NBIS only owns 28%. But i could definitely see clickhouse becoming a $50B company one day, i'll probably made a follow up post and cover all sum-of-parts to help people understand nebius value proposition
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看好NBIS两年期200美元看涨期权
@Perugius__ 哦，是的，对于 $NBIS 来说，将几个月到期的期权换成两年后到期的期权，这种风险管理没问题。 我强烈认为 2027 年 12 月到期的 $200 看涨期权会行权！
英文原文
@Perugius__ Oh yeah that's fine risk management for $NBIS swapping out few month expiry to 2 years out. Strongly believe Dec 2027 $200 calls will hit!
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NBIS旗下自动驾驶子公司Avride被严重低估，具备投资潜力。
是的，$NBIS 是一个迷人的分部加总(Sum-of-Parts)估值脱钩案例，其隐藏资产——高增长的自动驾驶Robotaxi子公司 Avride，在母公司市值中被严重低估。这在公众中鲜为人知。但所有人都渴望通过 Waymo 或 $TSLA 获得 Robotaxi 领域的敞口。这仅仅是 Nebius 进行的众多副线任务之一，我本打算写一系列文章介绍其他项目，但鉴于我是自动驾驶汽车的粉丝，我个人最喜欢 Avride。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is a fascinating sum-of-parts disconnect example where a hidden asset yet high growth self-driving robotaxi subsidiary Avride, is severely undervalued within the parent company's MC. It's very little known to the public. But everyone is dying to get exposure to robotaxi players looking at Waymo or $TSLA. This is just one of the side quests Nebius is doing, I was going to do a series on the others, but I personally liked Avride the most given how I'm a fan of self-driving cars.
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Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。 更疯狂的是这一点。 其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。 是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。 作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。 人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。 因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。 但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争： 那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是 该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。 支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。 你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。 我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor
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博主预告将发布关于NBIS的深入分析帖。
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK 是的，我会再发一篇帖子解释今天关于 $NBIS 的原因。
英文原文
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK Yes, I’ll make another post explaining why today on $NBIS
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对比特斯拉FSD与Waymo等技术等级，认为谷歌目前领先。
哈哈，$TSLA 目前感觉像是营销上的“万能灵药(snake oil)”。Waymo ($GOOGL) - L4级自动驾驶；Cruise ($GM) - L4级；Aurora - L4级；Tesla FSD - L2级。$TSLA 目前仍是L2级，仍需人类远程监控每次驾驶，其FSD营销带有“必须时刻手握方向盘”的免责声明，纯属营销噱头。不过，如果仅靠摄像头就能实现，正如你所说，其规模化潜力更大。鉴于埃隆能造出可重复使用火箭，我并不怀疑他的能力。除此之外，$GOOGL 目前在各方面都碾压其他对手。我认为更好的问题是：Aurora + Uber 能否与 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 竞争，而非单独看某家公司。
英文原文
lol $TSLA feels like marketing snake oil currently. Waymo ( $GOOGL ) -Level 4 Cruise ( $GM ) - Level 4 Avride - Level 4 Tesla FSD - Level 2 $TSLA still has humans remotely monitoring every drive since it's level 2 right now and it's just snake oil marketing FSD (with disclaimers that you must be at the wheel lol at all times). If they get it right with just cameras, it has higher scale potential as you mentioned. And I don't really doubt Elon if he can make massive reusable rockets. That aside, $GOOGL is dominating every one of them right now. Think the better question to be asking is if avride + Uber can compete vs $TSLA or $GOOGL, rather than the standalone company.
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TPU/AMD因NVDA产能受限受追捧，若NVDA产能过剩才需担忧竞争逆风。
问得极好，我关于谷歌TPU（张量处理单元）有一个非常详尽且微妙的论点。 总结：真正需要担心的是，如果TPU和AMD在长期表现上优于$NVDA，导致人们**偏好**其他GPU并转而购买它们。而不是因为$NVDA的GPU卖光了，被迫去买替代品。 但这只是简版。目前的情况就像$AMD： 它是$NVDA潜在的竞争替代品，短期内对基本面影响不大。 这对$NVDA专属云（如$CRWV）和$NVDA自身（例如$META可能会购买TPU）构成长期逆风。但其中的微妙之处在于，$NVDA受限于GPU产能，否则$META可能根本不会去买任何TPU。 短期/中期对盈利影响不大。中期对$TSM、像$CIFR这样的 Colo（数据中心）提供商、以及GPU无关的云提供商构成顺风。 $NVDA刚经历了一个爆发性的季度，Q4预测也极其惊人。直接看那些营收预测就好。 所以我说的微妙之处在于：人们买$AMD和TPU是因为产能受限。$NVDA生产的任何东西都能售罄。 如果$NVDA生产的任何东西都卖不完，那时你才需要担心逆风和$NVDA的故事。
英文原文
Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs. SUMMARY: The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives. But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals. This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs. Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers. $NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce. If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.
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看好$NBIS因Robotaxi子公司潜力被低估，预期市值可达400B。
$NBIS 的核心业务令人惊叹。但更疯狂的是，其子公司在一年内的潜在价值可能超过主营业务。目前市场上没有公开的自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)公司。获取相关敞口的唯一途径是通过 $TSLA 的 Robotaxi 业务和 $GOOGL 的 Waymo。$NBIS 持有 AVride 83% 的股权，估值约 60 亿美元，并与 $UBER（也是投资者）合作以竞争 Waymo。马斯克一直宣传 Robotaxi 是一个万亿美元的市场。如果这家公司不久后市值达到 400 亿美元，我也不会感到惊讶。话虽如此，$NBIS 目前 21 美元的估值简直低得可笑。
英文原文
$NBIS core business is insane. But what's even more insane is that potential for their subsidiaries to be worth more than their main business in a year lol. There's no public robotaxi companies right now. The only way to get exposure is $TSLA for their robotaxis and $GOOGL for Waymo. And $NBIS has AVride ~$6B valuation 83% ownership, which they partnered with $UBER (also an investor) to compete vs Waymo.Elon's been shilling Robotaxi's as a trillion dollar market. Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future. That being said, $NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now.
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机构增持NBIS至近50%，预示其将成下一超大规模云服务商并即将拉升。
我确信机构已经知道 $NBIS 正在蓄势成为下一个超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)。 从13F文件来看，我们的机构持股比例从上季度的38%上升到了本季度的44%。 现在根据彭博终端(Bloomberg terminal)数据，$NBIS 的机构持股比例已达到48.8%-50.42%（鉴于昨日纳入MSCI指数+未来一两周更多资金流入，实际比例可能更高）。 正如我之前在 $HOOD 的案例中所说，对于这类优质公司，机构往往会在迎来大幅拉升前，先积累到55-75%这一“甜蜜点”的持股比例。 机构正在通过暗池(dark pools)买入散户的投降筹码。
英文原文
Pretty sure institutions know $NBIS is gearing up to become the next hyperscaler. We went from 38% institutional ownership last quarter to 44% this quarter from 13F filings. Now from Bloomberg terminal data, we're now at 48.8%-50.42% institutional ownership of $NBIS (with likely more after MSCI inclusion yesterday + more inflows the next week or two). As I said before with good companies like $HOOD, institutions tend to acquire that 55-75% sweet spot before having massive ramps up. Institutions are buying retail capitulation, but just through dark pools.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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日元套利交易平仓将推动资金回流，建议做多日经指数。
日本加息看似对日经平均指数不利，但由于美联储正在降息，这将导致2024年重新积累的日元套利交易(Carry Trade)崩溃。因此，在资金回流日本、推动带对冲买入的平仓(Unwind)阶段，我认为做多日经指数是明智的仓位配置。
英文原文
日本の利上げは日経平均にとって一見マイナスに思えますが、米国のFRBが利下げに動いていることもあり、2024年に再び積み上がった円キャリートレードが崩壊する要因になります。 そのため、資金が日本へ還流し、ヘッジを伴った買いが促されるアンワインド局面では、日経をロングするのは賢いポジショニングだと私も考えます。
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对比NBIS的爆发式增长与CIFR的稳健长期价值。
从我在AI增长板块的观察来看，是的，$NBIS 极其罕见，因为它前身是 Yandex。作为背景，这基本上相当于俄罗斯的百度/中国或谷歌/美国，他们将 Avride 等子公司剥离至 Nebius。至于 $CRWV 等其他公司，它们对 Monolith AI 等收购案更多是为了补充现有核心业务，而非像 $NBIS 那样实现三位数的独立同比增长。而收购 Weights and Bias 花费了17亿美元（据我了解其增长并不快）。至于其他数据中心/矿企，不幸的是比特币增长也不快，但长期来看防御性很强。因此，例如 $CIFR 通过其资产负债表的增长速度会慢得多。但从长期来看，作为股东持有它非常稳健，符合其下行风险较低的数据中心(colocation)模式和较慢的收入爬坡模型。如果你想一年内从0做到2000亿，$NBIS 是做法；如果你想用5年做到，$CIFR 是选择。
英文原文
From what I've seen in the AI growth sector, Yes, $NBIS is incredibly, incredibly rare since it was Yandex before. For context, that's basically Baidu/China | Google/US equivalent but for Russia and they spun off subsidiaries like Avride into Nebius. For stuff like $CRWV and other companies, their acquisitions like Monolith AI were more to compliment their existing core business rather than growing independently at triple digits Y/Y. Then $1.7B for Weights and Bias (that is not growing too fast from what I'm floated numbers) As for the other DC/miner companies, unfortunately Bitcoin isn't growing too fast either, but it's very defensible long term. So growth rate of $CIFR via their balance sheets for example will be a lot slower. But longer term it's really solid to have as a shareholder and goes in line with their low downside risk colo model, slower slower revenue ramp model. If you want to go from 0 to 200B in a year, $NBIS is how you do it. If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at.
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NBIS资金充裕，建议保留高增长子公司并寻求并购以超越当前市值。
$NBIS 应该拥有足够的资金来支持建设，包括 48 亿美元现金储备加上 25 亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资，以及从收入合同中获得的任何自由现金流(FCF)都将重新投入建设。 我认为 Nebius 管理层指的是如果出现极端的信贷紧缩，他们将出售投资组合中的公司，这在最后关头是合理的。 但他们处于健康的状态。如果我是他们，我会让它们继续增长，并寻找更多的并购(M&A)，就像 FTX 在加密领域所做的那样，或者 Meta 早期在核心运营业务之外对社交网络的投资，以建立更稳固的防御。 如果 Avride 成为一家 250 亿美元的企业，或者 Clickhouse 成为一家 800 亿美元的企业（鉴于它们的增长轨迹，这两种情况都非常可能），这些单独的业务价值将超过当前的市值。
英文原文
$NBIS should have enough to fund buildout through $4.8B cash stack plus $2.5B ATM + any fcf they get from revenue contracts gets put back into buildout. I think Nebius management were referring to if there was extreme credit tightening, they would sell off portfolio companies, which would make sense in a last ditch scenario. But they're in a healthy spot. If I were them I would let them all keep growing, and look for more M&As like what FTX did in the crypto sector, Meta early stage with social media networks alongside their core operational business for more defensibly. In the event Avride becomes a $25B business or Clickhouse becomes a $80B business (which are both extremely plausible scenarios given their growth trajectories), those individual stacks would be worth more than the current market cap.
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质疑某两家公司仅为NBIS用户而非被投企业
@Dream5728363541 那两家公司难道只是 $NBIS 的用户，而不是其投资组合中的被投企业吗？
英文原文
@Dream5728363541 Aren’t those two just users of $NBIS, not portfolio company investments?
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认为市场低估了$NBIS及其子公司Avride的超大规模扩张潜力。
我觉得市场也错过了 $NBIS 的故事。Jim Cramer 就是一个典型的例子。 我认为我们只是处于早期阶段，但最高的回报往往来自于此。尤其是当市场折价子公司，且未将其随核心业务超大规模扩张(Hyperscaling)的因素计入定价时。 存在一种遥远的可能性，即其中一家子公司（Avride）的规模会超过主营业务。
英文原文
I sort of think the market missed the $NBIS story too. Jim Cramer for one is the perfect example. Think we're just early but that's where the highest returns come from. Especially when the market discounts subsidiaries and doesn't price in that they're hyperscaling along the core business. There's a distant possibility where one of them (Avride), becomes larger than the main business.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.