个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 43 / 45 页
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批评忽视流通盘解锁的技术分析，指出CRCL估值过高适合做空。
我们同意市场是非理性的——但你的阅读理解能力跟你的技术分析(TA)一样糟糕。你漏掉的要点是：当技术分析(TA)忽略流通盘(float)和基本面时，它毫无用处。如果像 $BULL 那样，1%的流通盘驱动市值而99%后续解锁，图表分析就不重要了。我提到的唯一估值点是：如果 $CRCL 交易价格超过 $COIN 的一半，它就是一个很好的做空标的，因为利息收入是五五分成。我对 USDC 看涨，但 Circle 今天 $200 的估值应该高于 Coinbase 的一半。总之，在忽略100多亿美元解锁和收入分成的情况下画技术分析图表，并用“市场非理性”来辩解，正是亏掉粉丝金钱的方式。
英文原文
We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA. The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter. The only valuation point I made was that $CRCL is a great short if it ever trades above 1/2 of $COIN, since interest income is split 50-50. I’m bullish on USDC but Circle at $200 today would be worth more than half of Coinbase. Anyway, drawing a TA while ignoring 10B+ in unlocks & revenue sharing and justifying it by saying "markets aren’t rational” is exactly how to lose your followers money.
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CRCL受流通盘限制估值虚高，解禁后回归基本面，建议做空CRCL做多COIN。
吐槽：这张 $CRCL 图表很好地说明了为什么技术分析(TA)意义不大——基本面更重要。 当人们在 IPO 时发布 $BULL 的技术分析时，我正在做权证套利并翻白眼。BULL 从 10 美元涨到 70 多美元，但人们只在 1% 的流通盘中交易。当股份解禁时，BULL 跌回了 10 美元的 IPO 价。 对于 CRCL，我们看到从 31 美元 IPO 价涨到 200 多美元，因为人们在有限流通盘中交易，且市值几乎与 $COIN 相当（后者拥有加密货币交易所，并与 Circle 有 50% 的利息收入分成）。当 140 多万股 Circle 股份提前解禁时，价格暴跌回 130 美元。如果你看到 $CRCL 回到 200 美元，这是一个轻松的空 Circle 多 Coinbase 策略。 完整的 180 天禁售期在 12 月 2 日结束，两个月后你还有超过 100 亿美元的潜在抛压。我对 USDC 和 Circle/Coin 持看涨态度，但鉴于现有的商业模式，考虑到像 Tether 这样的稳定币业务通过利息收入赚钱，$CRCL 在今天 200 美元时价值超过 $COIN 的一半是没有道理的。 在即将到来的股份解禁面前，技术分析毫无意义。 教训：流通盘和基本面 > 图表上的线条。
英文原文
Rant: this $CRCL chart is a great lesson on why TA means very little - fundamentals matter more. When people were posting $BULL TA's at IPO, I was doing arbitrage between warrants and rolling my eyes. BULL went from $10 to $70+ but people were trading on 1% of float. When shares were unlocked, BULL went back to $10 IPO price. For CRCL, we saw the rally from $31 IPO price to $200+ because people are trading on a limited float and MC was almost the same as $COIN. (which has 50% interest revenue sharing with Circle on top of their crypto exchange) When 1.4m+ Circle shares had early unlock, the price crashed back down to $130. If you ever see $CRCL at $200, it's an easy short Circle long Coinbaes play. The full 180 day lock up is December 2nd and you have another $10B+ USD of potential selling pressure in two months. I am bullish on USDC and Circle/Coin but with the existing business model it doesn't make sense that $CRCL should ever be worth more than 1/2 of $COIN today at $200 given how Stablecoin businesses like Tether make money off interest income. TA doesn't mean anything with upcoming share lockups. Lesson: Float & fundamentals > lines on a chart.
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预测NBIS短期爆发后，长期走势或类似SMCI面临利润率与库存压力。
对于像 $NBIS 这样的股票，我会假设在一两年内，由于营收增长+前瞻潜力，会有一个巨大的催化剂推动其股价达到200美元以上。 然后它可能会像2-3年后的 $SMCI 一样，当局势稳定下来时，呈现高营收、低利润率，但随着大型科技公司部署由 $TSM 和 $AVGO 提供的自研芯片，面临库存风险和利润增长放缓。
英文原文
Stuff like $NBIS I'd just assume there's going to be a giant catalyst to $200+ in a year or two from revenue growth + forward potential. Then it might end up like $SMCI in 2-3 years when things settle down with high revenue, lower margins, but inventory risk and profit growth once all the big tech deploys their own chips with $TSM + $AVGO.
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按确信度排序：5年首选RKLB，短期回报潜力亦最高。
@junyongisusing1 如果我有5年的时间框架，按最高确信度排序会是 $RKLB，然后是 $BTC，最后是 $TSM。 这份列表只是我对未来几个月回报潜力从高到低的最佳猜测。
英文原文
@junyongisusing1 If I had a 5 year timeframe it would be $RKLB then $BTC then $TSM in terms of highest conviction. This list is just my best guess on return potential from highest to lowest in the next few months.
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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短期反弹预期20%，但长期竞争加剧难维持。
@truthdotphd 从10月到1月的短期反弹，没问题。+20%的回报。长期来看，来自Vuori、Alo等品牌的竞争过于激烈，恕我直言，股价难以维持多年。
英文原文
@truthdotphd Short term bounce from October to Jan, sure. +20% return. Long term, too much competition from Vuori, Alo, etc. wouldn't hold for many years imo.
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作者因看好TSM需求且担忧Lyft竞争，倾向重仓TSM而非Lyft。
我不喜欢追高，除非能明确看到未来几年会有疯狂的需求增长，比如 $TSM。 $Lyft 主要面向美国市场，我认为 Waymo 会随着时间的推移扰乱其市场份额。 即使股价在 $20 美元，它依然不错，但我更喜欢其他公司。如果我再有 100 万美元，我会直接投入 TSM 而不是 Lyft，因为我会加倍下注于我更有信心的股票。
英文原文
I don't like chasing unless it's clear it will go up with insane demand over the next few years like $TSM. $Lyft is mainly US market and I see Waymo disrupting market share over time. Even at $20 it's still a good but I like other companies better. If i had another $1M I'd just put that into TSM instead of Lyft since I double down on higher conviction stocks.
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做空叙事失效，广告监管新闻对$HIMS无实质影响。
@himshouse 做空者的叙事逻辑站不住脚，因为超过42%的$SI（Silicon Motion Technology）和45亿美元以上的美元面临无限亏损的风险，随着HIMS增长并完成其在欧盟收购120万+更多客户的交易。关于措辞严厉的信件涉及广告的新闻对$HIMS没有实质性影响。
英文原文
@himshouse Short seller narratives since 42%+ SI and $4.5B+ USD is at risk of infinite loss as HIMS grows and completes it's EU acquisition of 1.2m+ more customers. The news about strongly worded letters about advertisements has no material affect on $HIMS.
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批评RKLB大规模减持，类比GME/AMC泡沫。
@beavinvests 抱歉，自 $GME 或 $AMC 持有者为公司向市场抛售股票而欢呼以来，我还没见过如此多的妄想。$RKLB 在公开市场上抛售 7.5 亿美元，对抗任何买盘压力，这并不是一件值得兴奋的事。
英文原文
@beavinvests Sorry but I haven't seen this much delusion since $GME or $AMC holders cheered that the company is dumping stock on them. Having $RKLB sell $750m on open market against any buying pressure is not something to be excited about.
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作者类比UPWK，认为ETOR低市值高增长被市场错杀。
回顾我的历史，我通常在底部买入，比如 $GOOGL，或在短期底部买入，比如当所有人都认为公司会失败时的 $UPWK。 $ETOR 类似于 $UPWK，拥有大量现金头寸且盈利。但它正以 $IBKR 20%+ 的年增长率增长，而市值却极低。 有时很难逆着市场情绪交易，但我认为市场对此定价错误。
英文原文
If you look at my history, I usually buy stuff at the very bottom like $GOOGL or short term bottom like with $UPWK when everyone thinks the company will fail. $ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap. Hard to trade against sentiment sometimes, but I do think market is pricing this wrong.
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TSLA基本面差，但或因马斯克拉升股价预期而买入。
@unusual_whales 说实话，$TSLA 的基本面很烂，但可能值得买入，只是因为 @elonmusk 看起来想拉升股价 lol。
英文原文
@unusual_whales Honestly, $TSLA has crap fundamentals, but might be a buy just because @elonmusk looks like he wants to pump the stock price up lol.
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批评盲目跟随Shkreli做空非生物股，指出市场常无逻辑。
@unusual_whales 抱歉，但对于任何非生物技术股，尤其是 $OPEN，关注 @MartinShkreli 是最愚蠢的主意。市场并非事事都有逻辑可循。看看他们所有的量子空头头寸，比如 $QBTS，现在都变成什么样了。
英文原文
@unusual_whales Sorry but following @MartinShkreli is the dumbest idea for any non-biotech stock, especially with $OPEN. Not everything needs to make sense with markets. Just look at how all their quantum shorts like $QBTS is going.
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认为HIMS能解决某问题
@unusual_whales $HIMS 可以解决这个问题。
英文原文
@unusual_whales $HIMS can fix this.
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博主因不确定而建立迷你仓位。
@junyongisusing1 我现在买了一个迷你仓位，只是因为我拿不准。https://t.co/ZXzZHFRABT
英文原文
@junyongisusing1 I bought a mini position now just cause I’m unsure https://t.co/ZXzZHFRABT
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批评在ETH高点买入其控股公司，指出1600美元才是最佳买点。
@robswainept 不，这是一家以太坊(ETH)控股公司，你正在历史最高价(ATH)时买入并陷入非理性繁荣(FOMO)。 最佳买入时机是我在1600美元时。而不是在4800美元时，然后再去买这些控股公司。
英文原文
@robswainept No, it’s an $ETH holding company and you’re buying into the fomo at ATH. Best time to buy was $1600 when I did. Not at $4800 and then buying the holding companies.
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看好NBIS回调买入，认为HIMS短期潜力最大。
我高确信度的股票不多，但 $NBIS 在 90 美元时是其中之一。任何回调都是强力买入机会。 一家拥有如此多远期营收的公司市值仅为 210 亿美元，这简直不可思议。$IREN 也很棒，但目前更具投机性且需要稀释。 不过 $HIMS 在未来 3 个月内的潜力最大，空头比率(SI)高达 42%。https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
英文原文
I don’t have many high conviction stocks but $NBIS is one at $90. Strong Buy on any dip 21B MC for a company with so much forward rev is insane. $IREN is great as well but more speculative atm + needs dilution $HIMS has the most potential though over the next 3m from 42% SI. https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
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查理·柯克逝世引发悲伤，但看好$RUM因保守派热度及估值回调带来的投机机会。
为查理·柯克(Charlie Kirk)的离世而交易感到极其悲伤，但我怀疑在下次回调时，$RUM 是否是一个不错的投机性买入机会。 由于新发现的保守派参与度增加以及白宫流媒体业务，$RUM 的财报可能高于预期，且该股年初至今下跌 42%，更具吸引力。https://t.co/pf8Se71gcR
英文原文
It’s extremely sad to trade Charlie Kirk’s passing but I wonder if $RUM would be a good speculative buy in the next dip. RUM earnings likely higher than expected from all newfound conservative engagement + White House streams and stock is more attractive down 42% YTD. https://t.co/pf8Se71gcR
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批评博主用技术分析误导新手，指出BMNR本质是ETH持有公司。
@MrMikeInvesting 你难道喜欢用这些图表欺骗新手，并借此售卖课程吗？你难道不清楚 $BMNR 是一家持有 $ETH 的公司吗？ 虽然 ETH 上涨确实有可能带动它涨到 100 美元，但在 BMNR 上叠加技术分析(TA)会让任何懂行的人觉得你蠢透了。
英文原文
@MrMikeInvesting Do you enjoy scamming newcomers with these charts and selling courses from it? You do realize $BMNR is an $ETH holding company.. There’s always a chance it goes to $100 from ETH rallying but adding a TA on BMNR makes you look so stupid to anyone who knows what they’re doing
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看好LULU当前价位，预计11-12月反弹但受税务影响力度减弱。
@soulbiri1 我喜欢在这些价位附近的 $LULU。下个月可能会进一步下跌，但由于该板块通常在11月至12月表现最佳，因此应该会恢复。不过，由于今年迄今已下跌58%，出于税务亏损平均化(tax loss averaging)的考虑，其复苏力度应会比往年更温和。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I like $LULU around these levels. Could drop more next month but should recover Nov -> December because sector usually performs best around then. Recovery should be more muted though from previous years from tax loss averaging cause it’s down 58% ytd.
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分析SOL与LTC走势差异，建议利用杠杆清算机会逢低买入。
如果你在没有大盘大幅下跌的情况下看到这种情况： 1. 杠杆率为10-50倍的交易者被清算。 2. LTC ETF 将被拒绝。 大概率是 #1。 $SOL 已经被抢跑（7天内上涨20%+）。$LTC 尚未被抢跑，且发射日期为10月2日。 在杠杆清算期间逢低买入是有利可图的 https://t.co/95GmmYW9LR
英文原文
If you see this without a wide market drop: 1. Traders with 10-50x leverage got liquidated. 2. LTC ETF will get denied. It's prob #1. $SOL already got frontran (up 20%+ in 7D). $LTC has not and launch is Oct 2nd. It's profitable to buy dips during leverage liquidations https://t.co/95GmmYW9LR
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对比 Oracle 与微软在 AI 领域的交易确定性，质疑 OpenAI 支付能力。
@taleino93 @unusual_whales 我真的不知道 $ORCL 该往哪个方向走。Oracle 的交易对象是 OpenAI，而 OpenAI 甚至没有 3000 亿（美元）的体量。$MSFT 与 $NBIS 的交易已确认金额为 170 亿美元，鉴于微软的背景，NBIS 被低估了。时间会证明 OpenAI 能否支付得起。
英文原文
@taleino93 @unusual_whales I genuinely don’t know which direction to go with $ORCL. Oracle’s deal was with OpenAi, which doesn’t even have 300B. $MSFT deal with $NBIS is is confirmed with $17B, since it’s Microsoft so NBIS is undervalued. Time will tell if OpenAI can pay up.
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看好LTC因ETF预期及供应稀缺性，预计数月内涨幅达300%。
注意，#LTC 在未来几个月内有望上涨 300%。 1. LTC ETF 将于 10 月 2 日推出，抢跑行情才刚刚开始（自从我发帖以来已上涨 5.35%）。 2. 市值仅 80 亿美元，却已获得机构采用。 3. 少量的 LTC 储备将实质上消耗掉大部分流通供应，且已有 5-15% 的供应永久丢失。 我很少发布关于加密货币的内容，主要的一次是在 #ETH 从 1600 美元涨到 4800 美元之前。
英文原文
Heads up, #LTC is a potential 300% in the next few months. 1. LTC ETF October 2nd and the front running has just begun (up 5.35% since I posted. 2. Puny 8B MC with institutional adoption. 3. Small amounts of LTC reserves will literally eat up majority of the supply and 5-15% of the supply is already permanently lost. I don’t post much about crypto, and the main time I did was with #ETH before it went from $1600 to $4800.
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强调$HIMS高做空比例带来的逼空潜力，认为风险收益比值得。
我不知道该强调多少次了，关于 $HIMS 一家市值110亿美元、盈利且快速增长的公司，做空比例(short interest)高达42%……有潜力像 $OPEN 或 $GME 那样，在逼空(short squeeze)行情中创造历史。 风险收益比(risk reward)值得博取。
英文原文
I don’t know how to reiterate this enough for $HIMS 42% short interest on a 11B, profitable, and fast growing company… has the potential to make history on a short squeeze like $OPEN or $GME. The risk reward is worth it. https://t.co/xoCKXMzdqu
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建议禁用股票出借，因该股42%已被做空。
@himshouse 确保在你的券商处也禁用股票出借(stock lending)。该股票42%已被做空(sold short)。
英文原文
@himshouse Make sure to disable stock lending on your brokerage too. The stock is 42% sold short.
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SOL被抢跑，XRP基本面荒谬，LTC因ETF预期看涨至200美元。
@mamadamacdonald $SOL 已经被抢跑（frontran），$XRP 的基本面荒谬程度与 $PLTR 相当。 $LTC 在 ETF 获批和莱特币国库（Litecoin treasuries）方面仍有巨大上涨空间。鉴于市值（MC）很小，一旦积累足够，我们很可能会看到巨大的飙升。$200+。
英文原文
@mamadamacdonald $SOL already got frontran and $XRP fundamentals are just as absurd as $PLTR. $LTC has a ton of room to run with etf approval and Litecoin treasuries. Given the MC is so small, we’ll likely see some massive spike when enough gets accumulated. $200+
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建议同时持有UPWK和HIMS，前者避税，后者博反弹。
@mattia030339 我会说两个都做，除非你的仓位已满。$UPWK 自从我发帖以来涨了很多，所以可能最好持有它以获得长期资本利得税优惠。否则，$HIMS 由于42%的做空比例，如果在回调时能买入，可能在近中期有更大的潜力。
英文原文
@mattia030339 I’d say do both unless you’re full port. $UPWK went up a ton since i posted so might be a good idea to just get long term capital gains tax on it. Otherwise $HIMS probably has more potential near/mid term cause of 42% short interest, if you can catch it on a dip.
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建议买入垄断且低估的台积电，因其他AI股均依赖其代工。
如果你在纠结 $ORCL 对比 $AMZN | $GOOGL，$AMD | $AVGO 对比 $NVDA，$NBIS 对比 $IREN 对比 $WYFI 对比 $CRWV 这很简单。直接买入 $TSM，上述所有公司都依赖于它。 估值偏低且拥有垄断地位，基于未来增长 + 边缘推理(Edge Inference)的资本支出，市值有望从 1.3 万亿美元 -> 1.8 万亿美元。
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If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it. Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.
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HOOD无目标价但具高赔率，看好其银行业务带来的颠覆性催化。
@Lovefist17 没有目标价。我只是猜测其风险回报比值得，它可能会像 PLTR 那样，市值飙升至被高估的 4000 亿美元。标普指数（S&P）对大盘股的被动资金流入简直愚蠢。此外，$HOOD 正在推出银行业务，这极具颠覆性且是良好的催化剂。
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@Lovefist17 No price target. I'm just guessing it's worth the risk/reward that it pulls a PLTR and goes to a overvalued 400B market cap. Passive inflows from S&P is just stupid with large caps. Also $HOOD is launching banking which is extremely disruptive + good catalyst
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类比HOOD估值，指出HIMS盈利且市值小，空头因股价坚挺而恐慌。
@himshouse 这让我想起当 $HOOD 股价交易在 18 美元时，所有人都给出 12 美元目标价(PT)的情景。 42%的做空比例(Short Interest)在股价于他们额外做空 6% 后仍守住 50 美元时感到恐慌。 $HIMS 实现盈利，正在收购公司，市值仅 100 亿美元，且有新产品发布。
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@himshouse This reminds me when everyone gave $HOOD a $12 PT when the stock was trading at $18. The 42% short interest are scared when price is holding $50 after they shorted another 6%. $HIMS is profitable, acquiring companies, small 10B market cap, and with new product launches.
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博主列出下月基于潜力最看好的五只股票及买入逻辑。
如果我要根据潜力在下个月买入5样东西： 1. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例(SI)，新产品/降息催化剂+120万欧盟客户。逼空不可避免，只是时间问题。 2. $LTC - 抢在机构之前，为10月2日的ETF发行做准备。 3. $NBIS - 仅基于微软(MSFT)的交易，股价轻松达到100美元以上。抱歉了$IREN持有者。 4. $CRDO - 仅仅是为了追赶$ALAB的市值(MC)。 5. $HOOD - 鉴于标普(S&P)按市值加权且HOOD市值超1000亿美元，纳入标普的流入资金将大幅增加其市值。
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If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential: 1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time. 2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd. 3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal. Sorry $IREN holders. 4. $CRDO - Just to catchup $ALAB MC. 5. $HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.
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空头成本高昂且公司增长，终将触发逼空。
嗯，空头持仓比例/借券可用性才是关键转折点。鉴于公司正在增长，且他们需为42亿美元($4.2B)的持仓支付借券费用，终归会有某个时点他们必须进行平仓。原本预期PPI数据加上惊喜的产品发布就是转折点，但看来他们又找到了几个百分点的股票来做空。
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Well the short interest %/borrow availability is the tipping point. At some point they’ll need to cover since company is growing and they’re paying borrow fees on $4.2B. Was expecting PPI + surprise product launch to be it but they found another few percent of shares to sell short I guess.
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HIMS空头加仓压制股价，高融券率下若买盘持续将引发轧空。
分析有误。对于 $HIMS，主要是因为空头又卖空了超过 2.5% 的流通盘，以防止股价突破 50 美元并触发抛物线式轧空（parabolic squeeze）。目前约 42% 的股票被卖空，如果买盘持续，他们将陷入困境。
英文原文
Analysis is off. For $HIMS it’s mainly because short sellers shorted another 2.5%+ of the float to prevent the stock from breaking out from $50 and triggering a parabolic squeeze. ~42% of the stock is now sold short and they’re trapped if buying pressure continued. https://t.co/QvgQu4MQod
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惊讶于巨额融券压制股价，认为上行空间大且下行风险低。
@NighthawkTradez 我很惊讶他们甚至设法借入流通股的42%进行做空，以将其价格压制在$50以下。考虑到价格依然坚挺，要回购的数量真是令人难以置信。现在上行波动性更大，下行风险更小。
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@NighthawkTradez I’m surprised they even managed to borrow 42% of the float to sell short to keep it under $50 That’s an insane number to buy back given the price is still holding strong. Even more volatile upside and less downside risk now.
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作者认为$APPL发布会后先跌后涨，看好iPhone Air但提示高风险。
有时我也喜欢赌一把。 $APPL 似乎总是在苹果发布会（Apple Event）上，当人们说它很糟糕时下跌。 然后在几天后，当他们进行股票回购（Buybacks）并改变公众叙事（Public Narrative）时反弹，就像苹果智能（Apple Intelligence）那样。 我挺喜欢 iPhone Air。这个交易（Play）风险极高。 https://t.co/d8Y1B0aDFP
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Sometimes I like to gamble too. $APPL somehow always falls every Apple event when people say it’s bad. Then a few days later rallies when they do buybacks and change public narrative like with Apple Intelligence. I quite like the iPhone Air. This play is extremely high risk. https://t.co/d8Y1B0aDFP
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作者认为$HIMS增长强劲，确信将引发空头回补。
@jliljliljlil 关于轧空(Short Squeeze)没有具体的时间点，它发生在空头头寸减少时。要么是出现50%以上的剧烈飙升，要么像2020年的 $TSLA 那样持续一年的缓慢轧空。鉴于 $HIMS 的增长势头以及在欧洲拥有120万客户，我非常有信心他们会进行空头回补(Cover)。
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@jliljliljlil There’s no pt on short squeezes, it’s whenever short interest decreases. Either there’s a whopping spike that goes up 50%+ or some sustained squeeze over a year like TSLA back in 2020. Given $HIMS growth + 1.2M customers in Europe, I have high conviction that they’ll cover.
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建议$SG波段交易关注$10，长期持有博财报利好反弹。
@okcnav 我在 WSB 上说，如果你是做波段交易(swing trading)，$10 是个好价位。 现实来看，如果财报(earnings)表现良好，股价完全可能重回 $14+。 人们忘了 $SG 不久前还是 $40 呢 lol，所以为了长期投资(investing)而持有它，承担这个风险是值得的。
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@okcnav On WSB I said $10 if you’re swing trading. Realistically it could go back to $14+ if earnings are good. People forget $SG was $40 not too long ago lol so worth the risk just holding it for investing.
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建议持有 $TSSI 以捕捉半导体牛市红利，预期单日涨幅超 10%。
如果你正考虑在 $TSSI 上获利了结，请记住该股在稀释前曾达 $30，且目前半导体牛市势头强劲，涉及 $SMCI、$TSM、$AVGO、$IREN、$NBIS、$WYFI、$NVDA 和 $ORCL。若涨势持续，单日涨幅可能超过 10%。
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If you’re thinking about taking profits on $TSSI, just remember the stock was $30 before dilution and there’s a huge semi bull run with $SMCI, $TSM, $AVGO, $IREN, $NBIS, $WYFI, $NVDA and $ORCL. Could see it go up 10%+ a day if the run continues. https://t.co/ks67hMAi01
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NBIS稀释利空已消化，股价获买盘支撑。
我说过，$NBIS 的稀释性回调已被完全买盘消化，因为市场早已将其定价。免费分享 6% 的回报 https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
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Told you, $NBIS dilution dip completely bought out since it was already priced in. Free 6% https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
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博主分享$TSM期权建仓细节，看高市值至1.8万亿并建议逢低买入。
如果你好奇的话，这就是我昨天买入的具体期权合约。我在进行成本平均法建仓，但可能会将规模扩大到价值30万美元的LEAPS（长期股权预期证券）。$TSM 的市值可能会反弹至1.8万亿美元，所以如果你打算跟随操作，试着寻找一个好的回调买入点。
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These were the exact strikes I bought yesterday if you were curious. I was cost averaging, but probably scaling it to $300k worth of leaps $TSM will probably rally to $1.8T market cap, so try and find a good dip if you’re tagging along. https://t.co/xyvc7WdSU7
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UPWK 16美元仍低估，减仓留底仓，目标价20-25美元。
我在 $UPWK 16.5-17 美元附近减仓，但保留部分仓位，以防回购+收购将其推升至 20-25 美元。 在 11-14 美元时它被完全低估。在 16 美元时它仍然被低估。 我会将合理价值目标价(PT)定为 20 美元，如果收购/现有产品增加远期营收，或者如果运营利润率提高，则定为 25 美元。无论如何，持有股票并在不确定时卖出看涨期权(CC)总是一个好主意。
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I trimmed $UPWK around $16.5-$17 and kept some in case buybacks + acquisitions take it to $20-25. At $11-14 it was completely undervalued. At $16 it's still undervalued. I'd put it $20 fair value PT and $25 if acquisitions/existing product increase forward rev. Or if operating margins increase. Either way, holding it and selling CC's if you're unsure is always a good idea.
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认为NBIS稀释已定价，建议趁恐慌下跌加仓。
（这意味着利用这段时间加仓）。稀释效应已被市场定价，若股价下跌7%以上则属过度反应。我正试图抄底，从散户恐慌抛售中吸纳更多 $NBIS。
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(what this means is use this time to add to your positions). Dilution was already priced in and if the stock drops 7%+ it's an overreaction. I'm just trying to time the bottom to add another large chunk of $NBIS from retail panic sellers.
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股价涨幅已反映稀释预期，否则应更高。
@StockSavvyShay 希望你们意识到，当股价上涨45%时，稀释效应(dilution)已经被定价(priced in)了。否则，考虑到合同规模，股价本应上涨100%以上。
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@StockSavvyShay Hope you guys realize dilution was already priced in when the stock went up 45%. Otherwise it would have went up 100%+ given the contract size.
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NBIS稀释已定价，资金用于微软合同是利好，类比ASTS融资后股价大涨。
如果你担心 $NBIS，请记住**稀释效应已被市场定价**。$MSFT 的合同价值超过 170 亿美元，未来 7 年多将增加 300%+ 的营收。$NBIS 当天仅上涨 45%，而非 250%+。如果他们将资金用于 $MSFT 合同而非像 $GME 或 $AMC 那样持有，这是积极的。$ASTS 也启动了用于产品部署的融资，股价从 22 美元 -> 18 美元 -> 50 美元。
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If you're scared about $NBIS remember **DILUTION WAS ALREADY PRICED IN** The $MSFT contract was 17B+, increasing forward rev by 300%+ for over 7 years. $NBIS gained 45% on the day not 250%+. It's positive if they're using it for the MSFT contract instead of just holding it like $GME or $AMC. $ASTS also launched a capital raise for product deployment and their stock went from $22 -> $18 -> $50.
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HIMS做空率极高且盈利增长，即将引发空头挤压。
超过36%的做空利率(short interest)意味着对冲基金正接近其借券做空的极限。与许多被大量做空的标的不同，$HIMS 并非无营收的投机标的，而是一家快速增长且盈利的企业。公司持续通过惊喜的产品发布（如今天）进行扩张，并即将在欧盟服务120万+客户以拓展未来营收。此时，这纯粹是一场看哪家对冲基金先平仓的竞赛——而空头挤压(short squeeze)也将由此开始。
英文原文
36%+ short interest means hedge funds are nearing the limits of how much they can borrow to short. Unlike many heavily shorted names, $HIMS isn’t a no-revenue play, it’s a fast-growing, profitable business. The company continues to expand with surprise product launches (like today) and will soon serve 1.2M+ customers in the EU to expand forward revenue. At this point, it’s simply a race to see which hedge funds cover their shorts first - and that’s when the short squeeze begins.
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降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
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Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
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短期看涨抢跑降息，17日利好出尽卖出。
@WatcherGuru 恕我直言，短期看涨，抢跑降息预期，然后在17日利好出尽时卖出。
英文原文
@WatcherGuru IMO bullish short term, frontrunning rate cut, then sell the news on 17th.
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$SG单日涨5.3%，预期从$8回升至$10，期权流向异常。
表现不错，$SG 在一个交易日内上涨 5.3%+。 虽然从 $40 跌至 $8，但应该能回升至 $10。 不过未来两周的期权资金流向(Option flows)仍然有些怪异。https://t.co/YC5rtbEDy9
英文原文
Not bad, 5.3%+ in one trading day $SG. Still down from $40 to $8 but should be able to recover to $10. Option flows are still a bit wonky next two weeks though. https://t.co/YC5rtbEDy9
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TSSI 跟涨，看好 MRVL、SMCI 等超跌股反弹。
在我发帖两小时后，$TSSI 又上涨了 5.2%。 对于那些像 $MRVL、$SMCI 这样大幅下跌的股票，玩“跟风游戏”几乎等于白捡钱。 鉴于 $TSSI 从 30 多美元跌下来，仍有巨大的上涨空间。https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8
英文原文
And $TSSI up 5.2% 2 hours later after I posted. It’s almost free money playing follow the leader on stocks that are down a ton like $MRVL, $SMCI. Lot of room to run given that it dropped from the $30s. https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8
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建议现价持有GME或卖put，未来取决于CEO对现金的运用。
@LibertadEterno 在当前价格附近卖出看跌期权(puts)或持有 $GME 股票，我会感到比较安心。建议忽略分析师对此的看法，似乎具有不错的价值。此外，未来的走势很大程度上取决于 CEO 打算如何处理其庞大的现金储备。
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@LibertadEterno I'd be comfortable selling puts or holding GME stock around current prices. Probably ignore the analysts on this one, seems like good value. Otherwise, future really depends on what the CEO wants to do with the massive cash pile.
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买入TSSI，看好小盘半导体随AI板块反弹。
鉴于半导体反弹已扩展至如 $SMCI 等服务器机架领域，我买入了 $40K 的 $TSSI。该股从 $31 跌至 $13.6，考虑到 $TSM、$CREDO、$NBIS、$AVGO、$MRVL、$ALAB 等其他半导体/AI 股票均已反弹，小盘股反弹的机会很大。https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
英文原文
Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI. Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro