个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 42 / 45 页
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分享UNH交易经历，计划因IV较低而买入TGT看涨期权。
@iamsattam 我对 $UNH 也做过同样的操作，买入价值 22.5 万美元以上，随后两天股价从 320 美元涨至 355 美元。 我希望它能回升至 100 美元，所以我可能会在下个月大量买入 3 月看涨期权。当时 $UNH 的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)太高了，但 $TGT 的隐含波动率足够低。
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@iamsattam I did the same thing with $UNH buying $225k+ on it, then it went from $320 to $355 the next two days. I'd hope for recovery to $100, so I'd probably buy a lot more March calls next month. UNH IV was too high at the time, but TGT is low enough. https://t.co/v66nS92o4m
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市场因降息预期下调下跌，但标的被低估，建议继续定投。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 定投(DCA)。市场刚刚定价了三次降息的可能性进一步下降（65% -> 55%），并导致所有资产下跌。但从基本面来看，它被低估了，所以这无关紧要。
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@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 dca. Market just priced in 3 rate cut chance dropping more (65% -> 55%) and brought everything down. But fundamentally, it's undervalued so doesn't matter.
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建议定投$AMZN，暂持现有仓位观望。
@__visionxry__ $AMZN 现在是定投(DCA)的好标的。 非常想买看涨期权(calls)，但除非出现单日跌幅达-4%的情况，否则我就继续持有现有仓位一周。
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@__visionxry__ $AMZN is a great DCA buy right now. Super tempted to buy calls but just sitting in current positions for a week unless there's some -4% day.
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作者借ETH反弹减仓，强调独立思考优于追随市场叙事。
@StockSavvyShay 像我这样的人利用这次 $ETH 价格回到 4000 美元以上（以太坊）的机会，抛售了在 1600 美元时买入的筹码。 我可能错了，以太坊和 $BMNR 可能是糟糕的长线标的。人们通过独立思考赚到的钱，远比追随媒体或某些对冲基金经理试图炒作的叙事要多。
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@StockSavvyShay People like myself were using this time around $4k+ to dump the $ETH they bought at $1600. I could be wrong Ethereum and $BMNR is a terrible long, people make the most money thinking for themselves than following a narrative the media or some hedge fund guys try spinning up.
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建议卖出CC虚值期权，逢低买入CIFR，GOOGL待进一步调研。
@DeepValueBagger 那些价值15万美元的牛排晚餐一定很美味。 说笑归说笑，卖出CC（Circus Circus）深度虚值（+35%以上，3天到期）的期权是个好主意，尤其是如果你持有看涨期权的话。 乍一看，逢低分批买入（DCA）下跌16%的$CIFR是明智之举。不过我仍需对$GOOGL的交易做更多尽职调查（DD），以建立足够的信心。
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@DeepValueBagger Those $150k steak dinners must be tasty. Jokes aside, selling CC's way OTM (+35%+ 3d) is a good idea, especially if you calls. From first glance, it's smart to DCA $CIFR -16% dips. Though I still need to do more DD into the $GOOGL deal though to have enough conviction.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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UPWK 17 美元减仓，看好 22-25 美元区间及长期持有价值。
@h20kita 我最终在 $UPWK 约 17 美元时减仓，随后保留了少量头寸。考虑到 H1B 签证增加自由职业者招聘、超 1 亿美元回购，以及作为指数成分股受益于三次降息（可能明年还有五次），22-25 美元的价格是合理的。不过，持有 1 年以获取长期资本利得也是不错的选择。
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@h20kita I ended up trimming $UPWK around $17, then held a tiny bit. $22-25 is good given H1B increasing freelance hiring, $100m+ buyback and Russell going up from triple rate cuts (part of index) and possibly 5 going into next year. Good to hold 1y for long term capital gain though
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揭露$BKKT长期折价稀释股东权益，警示散户远离虚假宣传。
X 上像 @mikealfred 这样粉丝最多的股票账号，竟然隐藏关于不利事实的回复并拉黑账号，这真是有趣。这正是我创建此账号的原因——揭露虚假宣传并真诚地帮助大家。 以下是他们试图隐藏的内容：$BKKT 有着长期稀释股东权益的记录： 2024年2月：通过注册直接发行(Registered Direct Offering)发行约140万股及权证。 2025年7月：在股价约24美元时，通过7500万美元的公开发行(IPO/Secondary Offering)再次发行约675万股及预融资权证(Pre-funded Warrants)，但以约10美元（60%以上折扣）卖给机构，导致散户巨额亏损。 这并非新事，几乎每年都是同样的模式：通过营销炒作散户 -> 发行折价股票以筹集现金 -> 循环往复。 提醒一下，X 上充斥着虚假宣传。请谨慎选择信息来源。
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It's funny how the most followed stock accounts on X like @mikealfred hide replies about inconvenient facts and block accounts. That’s exactly why I created this account — to call out BS and genuinely help you all. This is what they tried hiding: $BKKT has a long track record of diluting shareholders: Feb 2024: Issued ~1.4M shares + warrants in a registered direct offering. Jul 2025: Issued another ~6.75M shares + pre-funded warrants in a $75M public offering, when the stock was trading around $24, but sold them to institutions at ~$10 (60%+ discount), triggering massive losses for retail. And this isn’t new, the pattern has been the same almost every year: hype retail with marketing -> issue discounted stock to raise cash -> repeat. Just a reminder X is full of snake oil. Be careful where you get your information from.
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批评博主炒作有稀释历史的低市值股BKKT
@mikealfred 令人遗憾的是，你正在炒作一只市值较低且有过向股东稀释股权历史的股票。这是一个炒作循环——股价上涨——以当前价格稀释70%——股东被坑。其他股票的分析逻辑不错，但BKKT是在向粉丝糟糕地吹票。
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@mikealfred It's sad how you're pumping a low mc stock that has a history of dumping dilution on shareholders. It's a cycle of hype -> stock rises -> dilution 70% under current prices -> shareholders get screwed. Decent thesis with other stocks but BKKT is a terrible shill to followers
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承认 $IREN 判断正确，但表示目前坚定看好 $NBIS。
@SCurveCapital 是的，你对 $IREN 的判断是对的，恭喜。当我们在 $12 美元持有 $UPWK 时，我买入了 1 股 $IREN，它的涨幅非常巨大。 不过我现在是坚定的 $NBIS 列车乘客（看好 $NBIS）。
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@SCurveCapital Yeah you were right about $IREN, congrats. I bought 1 share when we were holding $UPWK back at $12 and it was up an enormous amount. I'm on the $NBIS train though.
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警告股份稀释风险，建议波段交易而非长期持有。
@mikealfred 等着吧，他们又会再次稀释你们的股份。长期持有体验极差，适合做波段交易。
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@mikealfred Just wait until they dilute you all again. Absolutely terrible long term hold, good to swing trade.
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类比Coinbase与Robinhood，看好NBIS超越CRWV，IREN暂无巨头订单
@NeuralCadence $COIN 就像 $CRWV 的等价物，为该板块的公司设定了市值标杆。 $NBIS 就像 $HOOD，拥有更健康的资产负债表、更多元化的客户群等。 我认为 $NBIS 将在一两年内超越 $CRWV，就像 $HOOD 超越 $COIN 那样。 $IREN 目前还没有与“七大科技巨头(Mag7)”的合作协议。
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@NeuralCadence $COIN is like the equivalent of $CRWV, setting the mc for companies in the sector. $NBIS is like $HOOD, better balance sheet, more diversified customers, etc. I think NBIS will overtake CRWV in a year or two like how HOOD took over COIN. $IREN doesn't have mag7 deals yet
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建议$220买入AMZN正股，并预测科技巨头市值目标。
如果你做正股，$AMZN 在 $220 是个很好的买入点。 我会等到 $211-216 再入场短期看涨期权。今天的美联储会议没有影响三次降息的概率。 关于科技巨头，我的预测是： $TSM -> $1.8T $META -> $2.3T $AMZN -> $3T https://t.co/5KwV6XZWxK
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$AMZN is an great buy here at $220 if you're doing shares. I'd wait for $211-216 before entering shorter term calls. Fed meeting today didn't affect odds of 3x rate cut. In terms of tech giants my guess is: $TSM -> $1.8T $META -> $2.3T $AMZN -> $3T https://t.co/5KwV6XZWxK
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Polymarket维持三次降息预期，建议借机买入回调的AMZN。
@mattia030339 @AnaCintra24 这并没有改变 Polymarket（预测市场平台）的定价，仍然在计入 65% 的三次降息概率。我会利用这个机会买入像 $AMZN 这样下跌了 2.7% 的股票。
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@mattia030339 @AnaCintra24 It didn't change Polymarket, still pricing in 65% chance of triple rate cut. I'd use this to opportunity to buy stuff like $AMZN that dropped 2.7%
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看好NBIS一年期表现，RKLB适合五年长持，除非短期暴涨。
@__visionxry__ $NBIS 是我在1年周期内最高确信度的股票。 我更愿意在5年周期内持有 $RKLB。 除非它像 $CRWV 那样随机在短期内暴涨600%，否则持有一年以获取长期资本利得是明智的。
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@__visionxry__ $NBIS is highest conviction stock I have for a 1 year timeframe. I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe. Holding a year for long term capital gains is smart unless it randomly pulls a $CRWV and goes up 600% in a short amount of time
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看好$NBIS基本面，认为其被低估，目标价200美元。
$NBIS 是十年一遇的标的，能创造代际财富。前瞻营收与基本面极佳，260亿美元市值被严重错杀。低于130美元是极佳的买入机会。5个月内目标价200美元。https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO
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$NBIS is a once-a-decade stock that can make generational wealth. Incredible forward revenue and fundamentals, mispriced at 26B market cap. Screaming buy under $130. $200 PT, 5 months. https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO
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推测NBIS股价将涨至可转换票据转换价附近。
@babyfolio 我猜测直到可转换票据(Convertible Note)的转换价格触及约 $138.75 左右。$NBIS 今天就值那个估值（虽然通常股价需要一段时间才能涨上去）。
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@babyfolio I'm guessing until convertible note hits like $138.75-ish. $NBIS is worth that valuation today (thought it normally takes some time to run up).
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分析 $HPP 受降息影响有限且债务结构不利，虽低于 NAV 但持谨慎态度。
嗯，我进一步研究了一下。虽然“异特龙(Allosaurus)”模式很有前景，但对于 $HPP 来说，三次降息对租赁业务的影响远不如对 $Z 或 $$OPEN 等房屋销售业务那么大。降息通常能鼓励招聘，但我们又遇到了 H1-B 签证风波，这也没带来什么好处。 该公司债务众多，其中 85.4% 为固定利率债务，因此不像使用浮动利率的公司那样能从降息中获益。 不过，其股价低于净资产值(NAV)。通常股价低于 NAV 是有原因的，其他对冲基金可能已经将这些因素计入价格。我不够了解，无法判断哪一方是错误的。 我并不太看好，但也许“恐龙”看到了我没看到的东西。
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Hmm, looked into it more. While the Allosaurus pattern is promising, for $HPP, triple rate cut doesn't really affect leasing too much compared to home sales like $Z or $OPEN. It usually encourages hiring but we got the H1-B drama, which isn't helpful either. They have a lot of debt, 85.4% of the debt is fixed so it doesn't really benefit from rate cuts like companies that use floating interest do on top. It is below NAV though, usually there's another reason why it's below NAV that other hedge funds priced in. I don't know enough to say whether one party is wrong or not. I'm not too bullish, but maybe the dinosaur sees something I don't.
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苹果新品发布后先跌后涨，借回购扭转市场叙事。
在这个世界上，除了死亡、税收……和 $APPL 在新品发布后股价暴跌，人们恐慌性抛售，随后苹果通过股票回购(buybacks)来说服市场大家都喜欢该产品之外，没有任何事情是确定的。 （两周内从 $227 涨至 $256） https://t.co/Jy4SRAJFda
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In this world, nothing can be said for certain, except death, taxes... and $APPL stock crashing after product launch, people panic selling, then Apple using buybacks to convince market that everyone likes the product. ($227 -> $256 in 2 weeks) https://t.co/Jy4SRAJFda
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HIMS受降息预期及基本面驱动，空头平仓推升市值至2000亿。
顺风因素将是三次降息。我原以为睾酮产品发布+PPI会是主要催化剂，但SI从36升至42。尽管我发帖时股价为$48，随后涨至$57。$HIMS只需通过Zava收购持续增加营收，基本面将导致空头在每次回调时平仓。意外的150%SS可能是收购等事件，否则看起来像是随着空头逐步平仓，市值缓慢升至$200B+。
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Tailwind would be triple rate cut. I thought testosterone product launch + PPI would be the main trigger but SI increased from 36 -> 42. Stock still went up when I posted at $48 to $57 though. $HIMS just need to keep increasing revenue with Zava acquisition and fundamentals will cause shorts to cover on every dip. A surprise 150% SS would be an acquisition or something but otherwise looks like one of the gradual ones with short positions covering over time to $20B+ mc.
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看好GAP季节性机会，关注宏观关税对价值持仓的影响。
@AndyA143597 对于 $GAP，我确实看好它，我个人也喜欢 Banana Republic。此时正值季节性利好期，该股也会从中受益。 $UPWK、$TGT、$UNH、$LULU 是我价值投资组合中的持仓，但我需要进一步观察，看看宏观环境或关税是否会产生实质性影响。
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@AndyA143597 For $GAP, I do like it and I like Banana Republic personally. It's a stock that benefits from seasonality around this time too. $UPWK, $TGT, $UNH, $LULU were value investing port holders but I'll need to look more to see if there's any material impact from macro/tarrifs.
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祝贺早期买入NBIS，本人微软合作后建仓，看好其千亿美元市值潜力。
@mvcinvesting 恭喜你在早期就买入了 $NBIS，发现正确的投机性标的从来都不容易。我介入得稍晚一些，在 $MSFT 的交易公布后建立了仓位。我认为该公司有潜力成为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。
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@mvcinvesting Congrats on getting into $NBIS early, it’s never easy to spot the right speculative plays. I joined a bit later and built a position after the $MSFT deal. I see the potential for it to be a $100B company.
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对比HIMS逼空潜力与NBIS基本面涨幅，供投资者选择。
@GrassKaniKani $HIMS 的空头持仓率(short interest)为42%，随时可能引发150%的逼空(short squeeze)行情。 $NBIS 仅凭基本面就很可能再涨100%。 在逼空情景下，HIMS 的上涨潜力最大；而 NBIS 则可能仅凭惊人的增长就实现反弹。 请自行选择风险。
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@GrassKaniKani $HIMS has 42% short interest and can short squeeze 150% any moment. $NBIS is likely to rise another 100% just based on fundamentals. HIMS has highest upside potential under a short squeeze scenario, NBIS likely rallies just based on staggering growth. Pick your poison.
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推荐全仓NBIS，因其风险低、估值优且增长潜力大。
@soulbiri1 说实话，$NBIS 是少数几只我会放心建议朋友全仓买入的股票之一。相比 $IREN 投机性更低，估值优于 $CRWV，未来增长潜力高于 $ALAB。
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@soulbiri1 Honestly $NBIS this is one of the only stocks I'd be fine telling a friend to full port. Less speculative than $IREN, better valuation than $CRWV, future growth higher than $ALAB.
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博主重申 $NBIS 为高确信度标的，认为其基本面强劲且极具买入价值。
我很少重复发帖推荐某只股票……但 $NBIS 很特别。即便今天已上涨 5.75%，在市值低于 300 亿美元的情况下，每次回调都是极具吸引力的买入机会。这是一家十年一遇的公司，其基本面和未来营收远超当前市值。轻松的高确信度持仓目标价 $175+。
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I rarely repeat-post a stock… but $NBIS is special. Even up 5.75% today, at <$30B market cap, it’s a screaming buy on every dip. This is a once-in-a-decade company with fundamentals and forward revenue far outpacing marketcap. Easy high conviction hold to $175+ https://t.co/MzjEuxSAkD
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Polymarket显示ETF获批概率升至95%，视为买入机会。
@junyongisusing1 我刚看到一个不错的买入机会。Polymarket 实际上已将 ETF 获批概率提升至 95%。这是需要关注的主要事件。https://t.co/QB0FIMrUIq
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@junyongisusing1 I just see a good buying opportunity. Polymarket actually increased etf approval to 95%. This was the main event to be looking out for. https://t.co/QB0FIMrUIq
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ALAB大涨验证逻辑，NBIS获巨头支持，作者建仓100万押注其市值翻倍。
$ALAB 从我两个月前推荐时的 $96 涨至 $244，涨幅 154%（尽管现在略显高估）。 $NBIS 正在重演类似的逻辑，且获得了 $MSFT 和 $NVDA 的支持。 $NBIS 从 $240 亿市值增长至 $600 亿+ 的路径清晰，这也是我建立 $100 万头寸的原因。
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$ALAB went from $96 to $244, a 154% increase since I called it out 2 months ago (though a tad overvalued now) Similar thesis with $NBIS is happening now with backing from $MSFT + $NVDA. NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I’m taking a $1M position.
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NBIS获微软大单及融资，基本面改善，市值低估。
并非因为股价反弹。而是因为自那以后，$NBIS 获得了 $MSFT 多年总计 170 亿美元的订单，上周以良好条款筹集了 41 亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)，加上三天前预期的降息利好。我们还看到微软计算资源紧张，OpenAI 转向 $GOOGL。其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)也签署了更多计算资源协议，且更有可能签约。这些近期发生的事件，使得在 $NBIS 50 美元时仅为投机，除非是 $RKLB，否则我对投机性公司不会有高确信度。现在纯粹是从这里开始规模化扩张，未来营收复合增长数百倍。250 亿美元市值与未来增长不匹配。
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It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago. We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on. This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB. Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.
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推测$ETOR因年底税务亏损收割被抛售，但基本面强劲且估值低。
@KevinLMak 可能是 $ETOR。我猜是因为它今年股价下跌，人们在年底(EOY)前进行税务亏损收割(tax harvest)。但它拥有约800多百万美元的净现金，市值36亿美元，同比增长22%（类似 $IBKR），且盈利，却深陷低谷。
英文原文
@KevinLMak Prob $ETOR. I'm guessing it's because it's down for the year and people tax harvest before EOY. But ~800+ net cash, 3.6B marketcap, growing 22% y/y like $IBKR, profitable, down in the dumps.
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分析RKLB、HOOD、TSM及比特币的长期成长逻辑与估值。
嗯，我持有的不多，除了 $RKLB、$IBIT，可能还有 $TSM，$HOOD 但在当前价位下可能性较小。 我在 $18 时就多仓持有 $HOOD，但鉴于其已上涨 1000%+，受金融科技(Fintech)领域限制，很难看到它在 5 年内成长为 1 万亿美元市值。但它一直是我高确信度的多头持仓，因为拥有庞大的用户群并增加了更多产品（如银行服务）。 $RKLB 目前被严重高估，但 SpaceX 是最好的对标，SpaceX 现估值 3500 亿，太空行业因国家安全问题+商业化将保持增长。RKLB 无论 5 年还是 10 年，很可能都会成长到那个体量。 比特币(Bitcoin)很可能继续增长至黄金市值水平。 $TSM 是纯粹的垄断者，像英特尔(Intel)建设晶圆代工厂这样的噪音不太可能在未来 10 年内打破这一格局。
英文原文
Hmm, I don't have many but aside from $RKLB, $IBIT, prob $TSM, $HOOD but less so at these levels. I was long HOOD back at $18 but given its 1000%+ rise already, hard to see it growing into $1T in 5 years due to limits in fintech. But it was always a high conviction long due to consumer base + adding more products eg. Banking. $RKLB is insanely overvalued right now but Spacex is the best comparison, 350b valuation now and space industry will keep growing cause national security issue + commercialization. RKLB will likely grow into that whether it's 5 years from now or 10 Bitcoin will likely keep growing into gold marketcap. $TSM is a pure monopoly, no noise like Intel building foundries will likely disrupt that for another 10 years.
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分析CRWV、NBIS及RKLB的股价潜力与时间框架
$CRWV 在3个月内从$41涨至$183，但部分原因是流通盘(less float)较小。 如果$NBIS 第四季度财报(Q4 earnings)大超预期，加上最乐观情境下的三次降息，我们可能看到它从$99涨至$225，否则我认为需要1年时间。 $RKLB 是我在5年维度上最看好的，但他们还需要额外两年时间用于中子火箭(Neutron)项目。
英文原文
$CRWV went from $41 to $183 in the span of 3 months but part of that was less float. We could see $NBIS similarly from $99 to $225 by March if they have a Q4 earnings blowout along with triple rate cut in the best scenario, but otherwise I'd say 1 year timeframe. $RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe, but they do need an extra two years for Neutron.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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计划趁回调将仓位扩至百万美元，避免追高。
@babyfolio 谢谢，我打算在下一次回调时把仓位扩大到 $1M。只是不想在单日涨幅 5% 的时候买入这么多。
英文原文
@babyfolio Thanks scaling this to $1M on the next dip. Just didn't want to buy that much on a 5% increase day
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买入50万美元$NBIS，视为一年期最高信心持仓，目标价225美元。
买入价值50万美元的$NBIS。这是我目前持仓中，针对1年投资周期信心最高（Highest Conviction）的股票。目标价（PT）$225 https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH
英文原文
Bought $500K worth of $NBIS. My highest conviction stock out of anything for a 1 year time period. $225 PT https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH
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指出42%空头头寸可能引发剧烈空头挤压。
@mattia030339 @DavidJang0620 别逗了，空头头寸(short interest)高达42%。可能会引发一场极其滑稽的200%+空头挤压(short squeeze)。
英文原文
@mattia030339 @DavidJang0620 No lol there's 42% short interest. Could be a hilarious 200%+ short squeeze
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建议全仓NBIS博高回报，或全仓TSM求稳健。
@DavidJang0620 $NBIS 是我在当前市场利率下，为了获得最高投资回报率(ROI)而会全仓持有的唯一公司。 如果你风险偏好较低，$TSM 可能是最安全的全仓选择。
英文原文
@DavidJang0620 $NBIS is the only company I'd full port for highest ROI at current market rates $TSM is probably the safest full port if you're lower risk
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持有IBIT和LTC多头，看好LTC受降息及ETF催化重上250美元。
是的，我持有多头 $IBIT 和 $LTC。$BKKT 是我唯一考虑重新进入的加密小盘股。但由于稀释风险，我从不长期持有。莱特币(Litecoin) 受益于降息顺风、LTC 储备以及下个月 LTC ETF 的催化剂。它只需要一个像 $BMNR 那样的叙事，就能再次突破 $250+。
英文原文
Yeah I'm long $IBIT and $LTC. $BKKT only crypto small cap I'd consider re-entering. Never long though because of dilution. Litecoin gets rate cut tailwind, LTC reserves, and LTC ETF next month as catalysts. Just needs a narrative like $BMNR to go $250+ again.
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美联储降息预期叠加季节性，看好小盘成长股及SPY未来一年涨幅。
@sigmazerocap 风险管理本身没有坏处，但我们刚刚从上次美联储会议得到了三次降息的预期。这是小盘股/成长股结合（11-12月）季节性行情的一次千载难逢的机会。SPY 平均一年后涨幅 +10% 至 +15%。
英文原文
@sigmazerocap Nothing bad about risk management, but we just got a triple rate cut projection from the last fed meeting. This is once-in-awhile opportunity for small caps/growth stocks combined with (Nov-Dec) seasonality. SPY average +10% to +15%, 1 year later.
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PLMR虽稳健，但降息致利息收入受损，难享高负债小盘股红利。
@MMerrino569447 我通常不投资小盘股，但我们得到了三次降息预期。所以这纯粹是一笔宏观交易.. $PLMR 看起来像 $UPWK 一样稳健。但三次降息会损害它们的利息收入，因此它无法像其他高负债小盘股那样受益。
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 I don't normally invest in small caps but we got the triple rate cut projection. So this is purely a macro trade.. $PLMR looks solid like $UPWK. But triple rate cut hurts them because of lower investment income, so it doesn't get the benefit like other heavy-debt small caps.
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HAIN债务沉重，降息作用有限，扭转局面存疑。
@Rrrdv4 呃，债务很多。降息能帮上一点忙，但作用有限。$HAIN 市值仅 1.34 亿美元是有原因的，但谁知道他们能否扭转局面。
英文原文
@Rrrdv4 Uh, there's a lot of debt. Rate cuts help a bit, but by only so much. $HAIN is a 134m market cap for a reason, but who knows if they can turn it around.
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建议未来几个月从NBIS切换至RKLB
@YodaStockInvest 未来几个月 $NBIS -> $RKLB
英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS for next few months -> $RKLB
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该公司因远期收入结构变化，现被市场视为AI GPU即服务公司。
@__visionxry__ 在某种程度上是的，但由于其大部分远期收入来自该业务，他们现在被作为人工智能GPU即服务(AI GPU as a Service)公司进行交易。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ In some way, but they're traded as an AI GPU as a Service company now since that's where majority of the forward revenue comes from.
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GRRR估值隐含90%涨幅，但需警惕涉华风险导致的东南亚合作伙伴异常。
卖方给出38美元以上的目标价(PT)，较当前20美元隐含90%以上的上行空间。 如果我们按字面价值看待14亿美元以上的交易，$GRRR 凭借当前交易即可证明从20美元涨至65美元以上的合理性（尚未计入更多交易）。 但来自东南亚(SEA)的红旗警示是，如果14亿美元的潜在敞口涉及中国，这就是为何会出现随机的东南亚合作伙伴。https://t.co/ze6784wRTl
英文原文
Sellside gives $38+ PT from the current $20, implying 90%+ upside. If we take the 1.4B+ deal at face value, $GRRR with the current deal justify $65+ from $20 (not including more deals). But red flag from SEA if 1.4B underlying exposure is China, hence why random SEA partner. https://t.co/ze6784wRTl
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建议卖出周度备兑看涨期权，因近期无股息催化剂。
@soulbiri1 另外，除非股价进一步反弹，否则我会卖出行权价为 $95-$100 的周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，因为下个月之前没有股息催化剂。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Also I'd sell weekly covered calls on them at $95-$100 strike unless it rallies more since there's no dividend catalyst for another month
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博主在 $TGT 5年低点买入看涨期权，预期机构将因高股息而囤积。
正在对 $TGT 看涨期权进行成本平均操作，头寸规模约 10 万美元。我也持有 100 美元行权价的期权，但风险更高。该股股息率很高，且股价处于 5 年低点，因此我确信机构会大量囤积。 https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ
英文原文
Cost averaging $TGT calls to ~$100k in positions. Have $100 strikes as well, but it's more risky. It's a high paying dividend with the stock at 5y lows, so I'm sure institutions would stock up. https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ
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买入NFE并看好AI对能源股的催化作用
@SaiPhan94570565 谢谢，刚刚刚买了 2 万美元的 $NFE。主要问题是债务，但预计的三次降息将有助于降低其浮动利息。AI 消耗也是能源公司（如 $VST 或 $CEG）的一个很好的催化剂，值得一赌。https://t.co/skI1qMblls
英文原文
@SaiPhan94570565 Thanks bought $20k just now of $NFE. Main issue was debt but projected 3 rate cuts will help reduce their floating interest. AI consumption is a great catalyst for energy companies too for like $VST or $CEG, worth a gamble. https://t.co/skI1qMblls
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看好稀土及AI矿企，对比REMX、MP、UURAF等标的。
鉴于中国的地缘政治风险，我确实看好稀土。特朗普也部署了50亿美元以加速采矿。我在考虑$REMX或$MP的看涨期权，但$UURAF看起来也很有前景，我会进一步研究。我看到的最大缺点是它以加元(CAD)计价。我不太喜欢$NAKA或折价交易(under NAV)的控股公司。Grayscale曾长期折价交易。是的，我之前就知道$BITF。我只是更喜欢$NBIS，但那里有很多其他正在转向AI的矿企。谢谢推荐。
英文原文
I do like Rare Earth given geopolitical risk with China. Trump is also deploying $5B to accelerating mining. I was thinking $REMX or $MP calls, but $UURAF looks promising too, I'll look into it more. Main downside I see is that it's CAD. Not much of a fan of $NAKA or holding companies under NAV. Grayscale was under NAV for the longest time. Yeah I knew about $BITF before. I just liked $NBIS more but there's tons of other miners pivoting to AI out there. THanks for the recs
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调侃持仓数量，建议长期持有RKLB对标SpaceX。
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN，要是算上这些，我就有16、17、18只持仓了，哈哈。至于 $RKLB，就拿着它5-8年吧，总有一天市值会像 SpaceX 一样达到3500亿美元。
英文原文
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN, and would be 16 17 18 lol. For $RKLB just hold it for 5-8 years, should be $350B market cap like SpaceX one day.
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博主寻求高确信度小盘股推荐，拟投入10万美元以上进行深度研究。
正在挖掘具有10倍以上上涨潜力且势头正劲的小盘股。如果大家对以下股票有基于理由的高确信度，我将投入10万美元以上： $APLD（市值50亿）、$CIFR（48亿，继$IREN上涨后） _ $ONDS（19.9亿）、$NVTS（13亿）、$MVST（10亿）或其他推荐 真心求问，非投资建议——只是在寻找深度研究(DD)线索
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Exploring small caps with 10x+ upside and gaining traction. Will throw $100k+ at some if people have high conviction with a reason: $APLD (5B), $CIFR (4.8B) after $IREN run _ $ONDS (1.99B), $NVTS (1.3B), $MVST (1B), or other recs Genuinely asking, not advice — just DD-hunting