个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 41 / 45 页
-
建议直接做多BTC/ETH，MSTR估值偏低有修正空间且或遭国有化。
我在$114k做多比特币，但在$4.2k卖出以太坊。我不认为我在任何地方说过要在$3k以上买入ETH。 $MSTR在比特币行情中历史上通常在净资产值(NAV)的1.6-2倍之间交易。最近市场做空MSTR/做多BTC，因此NAV低于1.5倍，在比特币行情（通常在10月上涨）中可能有修正空间。 长期来看，鉴于其持有的BTC数量，MSTR被国有化纳入美国财政部的可能性最大。我不认为ETH或BMNR对美国政府的战略重要性。 否则，我建议你直接做多底层资产如BTC，或者如果你真的相信它，就做多ETH，而不是购买这些资产。
英文原文
I'm long Bitcoin at $114k, but sell Ethereum at $4.2k. I don't think I said to buy ETH anywhere above $3k+. $MSTR has historically been trading between 1.6-2x NAV during Bitcoin runs. Recently it's been short MSTR/long BTC, so NAV is under 1.5x and there's potential for recorrection on a Bitcoin run (which usually goes up in Oct). Long term, MSTR probably has the highest likelihood of being nationalized into the US treasury given how much BTC they have. I don't see ETH OR BMNR being a strategic importance for the US gov. Otherwise I'd just recommend longing the underlying asset like BTC, or ETH if you really believed in it compared to buying the asset.
-
建议像交易COIN那样波段操作RDDT，并关注其纳入标普500后的趋势变化。
@strandedpsgr 呃，我现在对待它更像对待 $COIN，认为在下次回调时可能再次在 $100 多美元买入 $RDDT。或者像 Coinbase 那样进行 $150 到 $350 的数月期波段交易，但这种趋势在纳入标普500指数(SPY)后可能会改变。
英文原文
@strandedpsgr Uh I treat it more like $COIN at this point where you can probably buy $RDDT in the $100's again next drawndown. Or with Coinbase $150 <-> $350 few month trade, but this trend might change after SPY inclusion.
-
卖出ASTS获利，看好RKLB全栈发射能力及对标SpaceX的估值潜力。
我是说，我在$ASTS财报后股价跌至约37美元时持有，并在反弹时以26%+的利润卖出？不过我对这只股票了解不够深入，无法给出有依据的观点。就太空股而言，我更偏好$RKLB，因为他们提供类似Starlink的全栈服务，从低轨到中等运力载荷发射，并能在5-10年内规模扩张至SpaceX 3500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
I mean I had $ASTS after the earnings drop to like $37 and sold it for 26%+ or so on recovery? I don't know enough about the stock though to give an informed opinion though. In terms of space stocks, I'd prefer $RKLB just cause they do full stack like starlink type flatelite to medium lift payload launches and can scale to SpaceX's 350B valuation in 5-10 years.
-
承认近期波段交易，看好其散户基础，建议长期跟随龙头策略。
@thename1424559 说实话，我最近确实有过从13美元到15美元等区间进行波段交易(swing trading)的“罪过”。我也记得曾在 $BULL 上做过套利(arbitrage)。 但从基本面来看，它们拥有像 $HOOD 那样的散户基础，只是规模较小，因此我认为它可以作为长期投资，采取“跟随龙头”(follow the leader)的策略。 https://t.co/KcUN6mau1j
英文原文
@thename1424559 Honestly I've been guilty of swing trading it from 13 -> 15, etc recently. And I remember doing arbitrage on $BULL too But fundamentally, they have the retail base like $HOOD, but on a smaller scale so I can see it being a good long term investment playing follow the leader. https://t.co/KcUN6mau1j
-
警告勿做空PLTR/TSLA等邪教股，建议高位卖出TSLA寻找更好机会。
@LiquidB_B 像 $PLTR、$TSLA 这样的“邪教股”是不做空(Cult Stocks)的。因为普通散户会不看基本面(Fundamentals)就把工资往里投。我在 $150 时持有过 TSLA，但在我看来，在这些价位我绝不会碰，并且会卖出。其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
@LiquidB_B There's cult stocks like $PLTR, $TSLA that you don't short. BC regular ppl will put their paychecks into them without looking at fundamentals. I had TSLA at $150 but wouldn't ever touch at these levels and would sell it imo. Better opportunities elsewhere.
-
认为ETOR被错估，偏好冷门股，指出市场过度拥挤于BMNR和NBIS。
@MakhmudovAkbar 哈哈，我认为市场完全错误定价了 $ETOR，现在可能正在进行大量的税务收割(tax harvesting)。 我尝试寻找像 ETOR 和 VIRT 这样人们不太关注的标的，它们通常表现不错。感觉 X 上的所有人都在关注 $BMNR 或 $NBIS。
英文原文
@MakhmudovAkbar Yeah lol, I think the market is completely pricing $ETOR wrong and it's probably a lot of tax harvesting going on right now. I try and find stuff people don't really touch much like ETOR and VIRT and they usually play out well. Feels like everyone on X is on $BMNR or $NBIS
-
分享CIFR期权盈利并看涨至16美元
@Neat_Lama 我也是！自周五以来，我的一张 $CIFR 期权合约已上涨 $12k。仍然认为它会反弹至 $16。https://t.co/4IbuWFsvaA
英文原文
@Neat_Lama Same here! One of my $CIFR strikes is up $12k since Friday. Still think it rallies to $16. https://t.co/4IbuWFsvaA
-
解释持有IREN的逻辑，认为长线持有无需纠结短期择时。
@chickvestor 我的意思是，我周五在 $40 买入的 $IREN 至今仍在持有。我个人不喜欢在单日涨幅 9.72% 后追高，所以这是基于今日的价格。我常尝试抄底，但如果持有一年，现在买入并等待 $70 也无妨。
英文原文
@chickvestor I mean I bought $IREN on Friday at $40 and still have it. Personally not a fan of buying after a 9.72% day so this is based on today's prices I try to time the bottom a lot but if you're holding for a year, doesn't matter if you buy now and wait for $70 https://t.co/ls4L5BDxgq
-
看好GAP基本面及假日效应，需进一步研究关税影响。
@camrinneiss 乍一看，我看好 $GAP，因为其基本面良好，且能像 $LULU 一样受益于年底假日季节效应。另外，我喜欢 Banana Republic 的羊绒产品，所以有点偏好。但显然需要更多时间深入研究关税对未来收入的影响。
英文原文
@camrinneiss First glance, I $GAP since fundamentals are good and it benefits from end of year holiday seasonality like $LULU. Also I like banana republic cashmere stuff so a bit biased. But obviously need more time to delve into tariff impact a bit more on forward revenue
-
博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
-
UPWK估值极佳，VIRT潜力较小需看期权。
@mattscottcap 是的，$UPWK 在 20 美元时依然具有极佳的估值，但 13 美元时感觉被极度低估。我现在对 $VIRT 也有类似的感觉，但除非你接触期权，否则其上涨潜力要小得多。
英文原文
@mattscottcap Yeah $UPWK is still great value at $20 but $13 just felt extremely undervalued. Feel something similar about $VIRT now, but upside potential is a lot less unless you touch options. https://t.co/ZzF4IlJXdf
-
认为NBIS估值偏低，建议当前加仓。
@blankeymonkey $NBIS 相对于远期营收/利润被严重低估。目前是很好的加仓标的。
英文原文
@blankeymonkey $NBIS is incredibly undervalued relative to forward revenue/earnings. Great add currently
-
作者因低IV看好$VIRT期权，认为风险收益比佳。
@__visionxry__ 隐含波动率(IV)确实极低，尽管 $VIRT 的期权流动性稍差。价差并非我见过最糟糕的。正股是最稳妥的选择，但不会带来40%的回报，我选择期权是因为我喜欢在低IV股票上操作。深入研究后，我认为风险收益比相当不错。 https://t.co/Y5HqyhHixB
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IV is extremely low though options are a bit more illiquid for $VIRT. Spread isn't the worst I've seen. Shares are safest bet but not going to return a 40%, I'm doing options since I like them on low IV stocks. Risk reward just seems good to me after looking into it more. https://t.co/Y5HqyhHixB
-
博主加仓VIRT虚值看涨期权，认为当前IV是良好入场点。
@ManglaniAkshay 谢谢！是的，我将 $VIRT 的仓位增加到了约 6.5 万美元的虚值看涨期权(OTM Calls)。 部分高行权价期权的隐含波动率(IV)为 29%，这是一个非常好的入场点 https://t.co/5tyJJhRF6h
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay Thanks! Yeah I upped my $VIRT position to $65k or so in OTM calls. 29% IV for some of the higher strikes is such a good entry https://t.co/5tyJJhRF6h
-
警示MSTR杠杆风险，看好AMZN/META波段，回避RIVN/TSLA。
呃，我不会建议粉丝在内容提供商(CSP)上使用2倍杠杆ETF，尤其是$MSTR，它本身波动性已经足够大。如果遭遇波动率衰减导致的强制平仓，情况可能会变得很糟，尽管我确实认为MSTR正在触底。 我同意大多数观点，比如AMZN或META，通常我会在$BULL跌至13美元左右时进行波段交易。 由于基本面原因，我不会碰$RIVN或$TSLA。
英文原文
Uh I would not tell followers about CSPs on 2x leveraged ETFs especially on $MSTR, which is volatile enough. If they get assigned with volatility decay it might get messy, though I do agree MSTR is bottoming. I'd agree on most though like AMZN or META, usually I swing trade $BULL low $13. I wouldn't touch $RIVN or $TSLA cause of fundamentals.
-
ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
@regard_capital 我在这里写了一点关于 $ALAB 的内容 https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY $ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头(Mag7)中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率惊人，同比增长约 150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出(Capex)仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设继续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
英文原文
@regard_capital I wrote a tiny bit about $ALAB here https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY
-
对比持有与期权策略，建议NBIS跌至96美元时买入LEAPS。
提醒一下，这全都是短期资本利得税！因此，持有股票获得的利润可能高于这种期权卖出策略。有时直接逢低买入 Weebius/$NBIS 更好，因为如果它单日下跌 6% 然后恢复至平盘，6% 的利润优于看跌期权(Put)的权利金。不过 $96 的行权价确实很安全，如果 $NBIS 再次跌至该水平，我会大量买入长期期权(LEAPS)。
英文原文
Just a reminder that this is all short term capital gains tax! So profits holding a stock might be more than this option selling style. Sometimes it's better to just buy the dip on Weebius/ $NBIS because if it drops 6% in a day then recovers to flat, cause 6% profit is better than premiums from puts. But yeah $96 strike is pretty safe, I'd switch buy a ton of leaps if they ever dropped to that level again on $NBIS.
-
建议利用NBIS或CIFR等高增长标的实现资产复利，而非止步于FIRE。
@wallstreetbets 太多人盯着财务独立与提早退休(FIRE)，却没意识到他们仍可以像南希·佩洛西那样，通过 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 这类标的，将 $5M 的投资组合复利增长至 $50m。
英文原文
@wallstreetbets Too many people looking at FIRE and not realizing they can still compound their $5M portfolio to $50m like Nancy Pelosi with stuff like $NBIS or $CIFR
-
建议全仓押注NBIS，认为其股价大概率从当前水平上涨。
@12345tgrf 我的意思是，如果必须全仓押注某只股票，我会选择 $NBIS。这取决于你的风险承受能力，但从股价走势来看，很难想象它不会从当前水平继续上涨。
英文原文
@12345tgrf I mean if I had to full port something it would be $NBIS. Depends on your risk tolerance, but share wise it's hard to see it ever not rising from these levels.
-
长期仅投RKLB，短期看好NBIS和CIFR的超大规模扩张。
@Melissa09744266 除非是 $RKLB，否则我不做长期投资，因为太空领域关乎国家安全，拥有巨大的护城河，且仅次于 SpaceX。不过，我预计 4-5 年后 AWS 和 GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商芯片可能会准备好。在那之前，我们仍处于以 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 为代表的超大规模扩张模式。
英文原文
@Melissa09744266 I don't long term invest unless it's $RKLB since space is a national security issue, huge moat m, and #2 second to SpaceX. But yeah I'd expect in 4-5 years AWS, GOOGL hyperscaler chips might be ready around then. Until then, we're in hyperscaling mode with $NBIS and $CIFR.
-
看好IREN年底前达80美元，认为NBIS将翻倍。
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK 鉴于 $IREN 和这些新云(neoclouds)的增长速度，80美元是一个极其保守的目标价。我预计 $NBIS 至少会翻倍至225美元以上，因此 IREN 很可能在年底前触及80美元。
英文原文
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK $80 is an extremely conservative price target given how fast $IREN and these neoclouds are growing. I'd expect $NBIS at least to double to $225+ so IREN would likely hit $80 before end of year.
-
感谢指正，补充因转型HPC而遗漏的$HIVE。
@ape_hodling 你说得对，感谢指出 $HIVE。是的，我漏掉了它，因为他们的业务正从挖矿转向高性能计算(HPC)。
英文原文
@ape_hodling You're right, thanks for pointing out $HIVE yeah I missed it in my bucket list since they're pivoting to hpc from mining
-
HIVE转型HPC领域前景看好，利好未来收入。
@Air_Airia 我花了一些时间深入研究（例如 https://t.co/WlUsSt7YIZ）。 看起来 $HIVE 正在转型进入高性能计算(HPC)领域，这对未来的收入增长非常有利。 虽然要真正了解这门业务可能需要一两个小时，但乍一看其发展方向很有前景。
英文原文
@Air_Airia Took me a bit to read into it (eg https://t.co/WlUsSt7YIZ). Looks like $HIVE pivoting into HPC which is really good for forward revenue. It would probably take me an hour or two to really get to know the business but at first glance it looks direction ally promising.
-
对比CRWV高息债务与NBIS优越融资条款
@Veganhippo21 @DeepValueBagger $CRWV 的债务利率超过 9%，而 $NBIS 的融资条款要好得多。
英文原文
@Veganhippo21 @DeepValueBagger $CRWV has 9%+ interest rate on debt while $NBIS fundraising terms are miles better
-
看好为微软和谷歌提供AI算力的小市值公司，认为其估值错配带来巨大非对称回报。
未来8-12个月可能是自这些市值仅30-50亿美元的小型公司开始为Google Cloud或Microsoft Azure提供AI算力以来，市场尚未意识到这一机会（直到某份财报发布）以来的最快上涨期。 这些公司的合同已锁定，例如5年期170亿美元的大单。但市场总是前瞻性的，因此4年后如果看起来它们将开始像苹果与高通那样进行业务转型，我们将看到重新估值。 但与此同时，一家为$MSFT Azure提供动力的公司市值260亿美元，而一家为$GOOGL云提供动力的公司市值40亿美元，其未来的营收潜力和非对称回报在接下来两年里显得荒谬得可笑。
英文原文
Probably fastest runup in the next 8-12 months since most people and markets still don't see the opportunity with all these tiny 3-5B companies powering AI compute for Google Cloud or Microsoft Azure yet until one of their earning reports. These are contracts already locked in like 5Y for 17 Billion but markets are always forward looking so after 4 years if it looks like they'll start to pivot off like how apple did with Qualcomm, we'll see a revaluation. But in the meantime 26B mc for a company powering $MSFT azure and 4B MC for a company powering $GOOGL cloud is hilarious forward rev potential and asymmetrical return next 2 years.
-
看好NBIS/CIFR，拒绝参与NUAI的恶性稀释。
@Lotterystonks @GClandesti37321 我很乐意在 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 以良好条款完成稀释并实现规模化后投资。但如果 $NUAI 以低于市场价95%的价格稀释现有持有者10亿美元以上，并将规模扩大至30多亿股，那我就不想参与。
英文原文
@Lotterystonks @GClandesti37321 I'm happy to invest like $NBIS or $CIFR after they completed their dilution at good terms and are scaling. But if $NUAI are diluting existing holders $1B+ and scaling that to 3B+ more shares at 95% under market rate, then I don't want to participate.
-
博主区分成长与价值投资，推荐不同周期的个股组合。
@DeepIceValue 哈哈，我看到了 $NVO 和 $UNH，然后看了你的主页，意识到你更偏向价值投资(Value Investing)。如果让我选，1-2 年周期我会选 $NBIS 或 $TSM。3 年周期我会选 $RKLB。价值投资组合(Value Investing Basket)会是：$TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO。
英文原文
@DeepIceValue lol I saw NVO and UNH and then looked at your profile and realized it was more so value investing. If I had to choose, would be $NBIS or $TSM 1-2 years. Then $RKLB for a 3 year timeframe. Value investing basket would be: $TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO
-
指出某股虽适合短期交易，但因稀释股权不适合长期持有。
@GClandesti37321 没问题，任何一家市值4000万美元的上市公司都有其存在的原因。 当然可以权衡风险收益比，但类似于 $BKKT 那样不断稀释股东权益的公司，它是一笔有趣的短期交易，却是极差的长期持有标的。
英文原文
@GClandesti37321 no problem, there's always a reason why something is a 40m market cap publicly traded company. can always take the risk/reward but similar to $BKKT that always dilutes their shareholders, it's a fun short term trade, terrible long term hold.
-
买入IREN，看好其获超大规模云服务商合同潜力。
@cronked 谢谢！回复晚了，但在下跌后我买入了一些 $IREN。它比 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 更具投机性，但我预计未来会有超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同。显然 $NBIS 的非对称回报(asymmetric return)潜力最大，但拥有其他新云(neoclouds)公司也不错。
英文原文
@cronked Thanks! late reply, but I bought some $IREN after the drop. It's more speculative than $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, but I'd expect a hyperscaler contract down the road. Obviously $NBIS is most asymmetric return but wouldn't be bad to have other neoclouds up there too
-
警告 $NUAI 严重稀释风险，认为散户难获益。
我之前研究过 $NUAI，除非他们进行再融资，否则其稀释问题对散户投资者来说是一个危险信号。他们与 ATW AI LLC 有一项股权融资协议，允许以 95% 的市场折扣发行价值 10 亿美元的股票。重申一遍：存在远低于市场价的稀释潜力。他们还提议另外授权发行 30 亿股以上。除非他们进行再融资或避免从员工持股计划 (EPFA) 中提款，否则我看不到散户持有者除了短期拉升和大幅扩张营收（这涉及稀释和融资）之外，还能从持股中获得什么好处。
英文原文
I looked into $NUAI earlier, their dilution is a red flag for retail investors unless they refinance. They have an equity financing with ATW AI LLC allowing issuance of $1B of shares 95% market discount. Repeat: Way below-market dilution potential. They also proposed another 3B+ share authorization. Unless they refinance or avoid drawing from the EPFA, I don't see how retail holders can benefit from holding shares apart from short term pumps + expanding rev by a ton (which involves dilution + financing).
-
NBIS因微软大单、优质资产及强劲财务成为首选。
是的，$NBIS 是毫无悬念的首选。$170 亿的微软 (MSFT) 交易为期 5 年，因此收入爬坡最快，这还不包括更多交易。他们拥有大量优质公司，例如 30% 的 Clickhouse（Anthropic 使用）。资产负债表强劲（例如已筹集 $138 亿+，仅 $40 亿+），不像 $CRWV 那样有重大利息负担。NBIS 做全栈 (Full Stack)，业务更多元化，毛利率高。在 260 亿市值下，整体价值极其惊人。
英文原文
Yeah, $NBIS is #1 choice by a longshot. $17B MSFT deal was over 5 years so fastest revenue ramp, not including more deals. They own a ton of great companies like 30% Clickhouse, which Anthropic uses. Great balance sheet (eg. $4B+ raised $138+), no major interest like $CRWV. NBIS does full stack, more diversified businesses already, large gross margins. All-around such an incredible value at 26B.
-
解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。
NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
英文原文
The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.
-
HIMS大幅降价促增长，预期股价涨至100美元。
@unusual_whales 随着价格下调1000%，$HIMS 将开始付费让大家服用 🐓药丸。股价很快将升至100美元，人口激增，感谢特朗普。
英文原文
@unusual_whales With 1000% price reduction, $HIMS will start to pay everyone to take 🐓pills. $100 share price soon and population boom, thanks Trump
-
作者认为 PayPal 适合交易而非投资，建议关注 2026 年 3 月 $60 看涨期权。
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances 哦，是的，我对 PayPal 也有类似的看法。我不会将 $PYPL 股票作为投资标的，但它看起来适合交易。比如，如果有人在 2026 年 3 月买入 $60 的看涨期权，可能会获得不错的收益。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances Oh yeah I had the similar thoughts about PayPal. I wouldn't touch $PYPL shares as an investment but it does look decent for trading. Like Mar 2026 $60 calls would probably print a decent amount if someone did it.
-
看好NBIS期权未平仓量激增，目标价150-200美元。
@babyfolio 哦，是的，它们仅用于日内/波段交易。我不相信其中一半的说法，但总体而言，应该是盈利的。 我同意 $NBIS 将涨至 150-200+ 美元。场外看跌期权(OTM Calls)的未平仓合约量实在太多了，所以接下来的走势应该会很有趣。
英文原文
@babyfolio Oh yeah they're just for day/swing trading. I don't believe in half of them but overall, should be profitable. I agree with $NBIS to $150-200+ though. There's way too many open interest calls OTM so now things should be interesting.
-
博主在当前位置买入IBIT，但不看好ETH。
@3KComeback 是的，在这些价位买入相当数量的比特币现货ETF($IBIT)。不过我不看好以太坊($ETH)。
英文原文
@3KComeback Yeah buying a decent amount of $IBIT at these levels. I don't like $ETH though.
-
凭直觉认为$CRM在$243的看涨期权表现良好。
$CRM 的看涨期权在 $243 这个价位看起来也不错，只是凭一种模糊的直觉。
英文原文
$CRM calls also looks good somehow at $243, just a fuzzy feeling
-
持仓观望一个月，看财报后是否复刻AVGO走势。
@soulbiri1 不确定，先持有一个月看看它财报后是否会像 $AVGO 那样表现。 历史不会重演，但会押韵！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Not sure, just holding it for a month to see if it pulls an $AVGO post earnings. History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes!
-
定投ORCL并买入看涨期权，看好其远期营收潜力。
对 $ORCL 头寸进行定投(DCA)。在股价下跌 2.4% 时买入了一些 $284 的看涨期权(Call Options)。 可能会看到持续至 10 月初的抛售，但考虑到与 OpenAI、TikTok 等合作带来的巨大远期营收潜力，我认为风险收益比(Risk/Reward)是值得的。
英文原文
DCA's into $ORCL positions. Bought some calls $284, on the 2.4% drop. Could see extended selloff into very early October but too much forward rev potential with OpenAi, TikTok, etc so risk/reward is worth it imo https://t.co/wY2iMVK43u
-
博主因回调诱惑买入甲骨文看涨期权
@__visionxry__ 我最终买入了 $ORCL 看涨期权 lol，回调太诱人了 https://t.co/WOE1qNbq7I
英文原文
@__visionxry__ I ended up buying $ORCL calls lol, dip was too tempting https://t.co/WOE1qNbq7I
-
博主重申WSB上给出的60美元目标价，无视近期涨幅。
@taleino93 尽管自从我发布以来股价已上涨 20.8%，我在 wallstreetbets 上仍给出了 $60 的目标价(PT)！
英文原文
@taleino93 I gave a $60 PT on wallstreetbets even though it's up 20.8% since I posted!
-
指出$ORCL隐含波动率高，否则考虑买入看涨期权。
@__visionxry__ $ORCL 目前的隐含波动率(IV)也相当高。对于这家巨头来说，短期隐含波动率达到50%就算高了，否则我会在这个价位买入看涨期权。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IV is pretty elevated for $ORCL too right now. 50% short term for that megacap is considered high otherwise I'd buy calls at this level
-
类比博通财报后走势，认为甲骨文因OpenAI合作具买入价值
@__visionxry__ 这让我想起 $AVGO 的财报表现，股价先剧烈波动（急涨急跌）持续约一个月，随后迎来猛烈的报复性上涨。目前走势可能更多受期权交易影响，而非基本面。如果按字面意思看待 OpenAI 的合作协议，$ORCL 是一个很好的买入标的。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Reminds me of $AVGO earnings, spikes, dips for like a month, then face ripping rally. Probably more influenced by options rather than fundamentals at this point. If we go at face value of OpenAI deals, $ORCL is a great buy
-
超成长股遭抛售，矿企因降息预期下调而过度反应。
@claudiohrios 许多超高速增长股如 $ALAB、$CRDO，以及像 $IREN（忽略摩根大通的观点）、$NBIS、$CIFR 这样的矿企股票正面临大量抛售。前两者的抛售更有道理，但三次降息概率降低 8% 真的不值得矿企出现如此剧烈的抛售。
英文原文
@claudiohrios There's quite a lot of selling on a lot of hyper growth stocks like $ALAB, $CRDO, miners like $IREN (ignore J.P. Morgan), $NBIS, $CIFR. The first two make more sense, but decreasing triple rate cut odds by 8% really doesn't deserve this selloff for miners.
-
博主看好矿企风险收益比，逢低加仓CIFR期权、NBIS期权及IREN股票。
呃，我通常不做期权看涨合约，但我觉得矿企的风险收益比不错。在 $CIFR 下跌 5% 至 $11 时，我加仓了价值 $30k 的 1 月 $11 行权价看涨期权。在 $NBIS 下跌 4.6% 至 $103 时，我加仓了价值 $100k 的看涨期权，这只是其中一个行权价。在 $IREN 下跌 13% 时，我以 $40.13 的价格加仓了股票。
英文原文
Eh I normally don't do calls but risk/reward looks good to me on miners Added $CIFR $30k worth of Jan calls $11 strike on the 5% drop to $11. Added $NBIS $100k worth of calls, this was just one of the strikes on the 4.6% drop to $103. Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop. https://t.co/OP9EYjg34h
-
宏观及BTC波动致NBIS/CIFR大跌，看好CIFR逢低买入机会。
是的，这是宏观因素（3倍降息预期已被消化）的混合影响，$NBIS 下跌了5%，还有其他因素。此外，$CIFR 资产负债表上持有约1.54亿美元的比特币，尽管如果比特币大幅下跌，这有点反应过度。当然也可能是“利好出尽”，但消息面基本面良好，且稀释条款也不错。所以在如此大幅下跌时买入是个好机会。
英文原文
Yeah it's a mix of macro (3x rate cut priced down) $NBIS dropped 5% and others. On top of that $CIFR has like $154M BTC on their balance sheet, though it's a bit of an overreaction if BTC went down a ton. Also sell the news I guess, but news turned out to be fundamentally good + dilution terms were good too. So good opportunity to buy at such a large drop.
-
分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但更看好NBIS并计划加仓。
@__visionxry__ 一直在等待稀释消息，结果证明是利好，而非像 $CRWV 那样引发巨大的市场兴趣。 正如承诺给一位粉丝的那样，我进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是很好的操作。鉴于其资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（占比 -6.32%）以及宏观因素，这很可能是过度反应。 30 亿美元的合同期为 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的合同是 5 年 170 亿美元。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿美元以上稀释消息，0% 的兴趣率（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%）确实是利好。以 16.06 美元的价格发行，比当前市场利率高出 38% 以上。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上的债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后股价应该会上升。在接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比依然不错。 目前我仍然更看好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 30 万美元的 NBIS，我可能会少量买入 CIFR，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Was waiting for dilution news and turned out to be positive rather than large interest that $CRWV did https://t.co/9B5OXuk0J2
-
分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但认为NBIS更具投资价值。
应粉丝要求，进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是个好机会。考虑到宏观因素，加上资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（-6.32%），这很可能是过度反应。 $30 亿的交易为期 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的 $170 亿交易仅为 5 年。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿+ 稀释消息，且利率为 0%（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%），这其实是利好。当前价格 $16.06 高于市场利率 38%+。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后应该会上涨。接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比仅针对股票而言是很好的。 目前我仍更偏好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 $30 万 NBIS，CIFR 可能会买一点点，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
英文原文
As promised to a follower, looked into $CIFR more. Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's ikely an overreaction due to the fact they had 1,414 BTC (-6.32%) on the balance sheet on top of macro. $3B deal was over 10y, compared to $NBIS $17B for 5 years. 1B+ dilution news just now (1h ago), 0% interest (unlike $CRWV 9%) is really positive. It's at 38%+ above current market rate at $16.06. This is how you do dilution. Very low debt on balance sheet too, there's probably going to be more dilution too but should rise afterward. There's likely going to be short term pressure approaching that number but risk-return shares only is good. As of now I'd prefer NBIS > CIFR though and would probably just buy another $300k worth of NBIS at these levels, I'll probably buy a tiny bit but still a solid company.
-
认为CIFR稀释条款优，建议逢低买入
@miningstockinfo @CipherInc 恕我直言，公司就应该这样进行稀释。对 $CIFR 来说条款相当不错，这里可能是一个不错的逢低买入机会。
英文原文
@miningstockinfo @CipherInc This is how companies should do dilution imo. Pretty good terms for $CIFR, might be a good dip buy here.
-
NUAI存在严重稀释风险，以低价向关联方增发，散户资金面临被掏空隐患。
所以我花更多时间对 $NUAI 做了尽职调查(DD)，发现了一些巨大的红旗：他们目前已以约860万美元的价格售出了1290万股。但有一份针对“ATW AI LLC”的10亿美元股票的超额配售权(EPFA)，定价为市场价的95%（“定价期内成交量加权平均价(VWAP)或最低交易价格中较低者的95%”）。简单来说，目前流通股本为5000万股，但有7.63亿股待稀释，以低于市场价95%的价格摊薄给股东，无论散户买多少。即使市值为4000万美元，他们也可以通过出售价值10亿美元以上的股票随时将市值稀释回2000万美元。他们还最近向“ATW AI”提议了30亿股稀释。除非股票能产生巨额收入/利润，否则早期买家可能会不断被稀释。这可能是我见过的最糟糕的有毒散户股东稀释性融资，否则我本可以轻松投入10万美元。我不确定是否信任该公司不只是拿散户的钱，以低于市场价95%的价格出售，然后将其转化为资产负债表。但如果他们不继续发行新股，结果可能会不错。
英文原文
So I spent more time to do DD on $NUAI and found some really big red flags: They've sold 12.9M shares for ~$8.6M so far. But have a EPFA for $1B in shares to "ATW AI LLC" for 95% under market rate. "95% of the lower of VWAP or lowest trading price in the pricing period" In simple terms 50m currently traded shares currently but with 763 million shares pending dilution on shareholders at under 95% market rate whatever retail buys at. Even at a $40m market cap, they can dilute anytime back to $20m by selling $1B+ worth. They also proposed a 3 Billion share dilution to "ATW AI" recently. So unless the stock can produce an enormous amount of revenue/profit, early buyers would likely just keep get diluted. This is probably one of the worst toxic retail shareholder dilutive financing I've seen, otherwise I would have put $100k in it easily. I'm not sure if I'd put my trust in the company not just taking retail funds, selling 95% under market rate, then converting that to the balance sheet. But it could turn out well if they don't draw.