个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 38 / 45 页
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解释投资TE和NBIS的逻辑，看好能源及NBIS年底涨幅。
谢谢！哈哈，这篇写得不太好，只是我承认自己缺乏领域知识，无法给出好的观点。 但我选择投资 $TE，因为我知道能源行业将是数据中心建设（Data Center Buildout）的受益者，而且我信任他人的尽职调查（DD）。 至于 $NBIS，对我来说就像是大甩卖，因为我确实认为它年底会涨到 200 美元以上。 我不认为它会再次跌破 100 美元，在我买入更多 LEAPS 之前，为了捕捉真正的底部而节省那百分之几的利润并搞砸复苏行情，对我来说并不值得。
英文原文
Thanks! Not a great writeup lol, it’s just me admitting I don’t have domain knowledge and can’t give a good opinion. But I chose to invest in $TE bc I know the energy sector will be a beneficiary of the data center buildout + I trust DD of others. As for $NBIS, it’s like a fire sale to me since I do think it ends up $200+ end of year. Don’t think it goes below $100 again and saving a few percent catching the true bottom + messing up recovery wasn’t worth it for me before I bought more leaps.
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因看好数据中心建设受益逻辑，建立T1 Energy小仓位。
在 T1 Energy $TE 建立了一个小仓位（5万股，4月期权），部分原因是我喜欢《英雄联盟》和 Faker。 我持有 $FLNC、SEI 和 $EOSE（已减仓）等能源股，表现非常好。 但像其他领域一样，能源行业有望从数据中心建设潮中受益，7亿美元市值的风险回报比不错。 我可以自信地说，我对太阳能/电池/能源领域了解不够深入，无法给出扎实的基本面论点，这是其他 X 用户推荐的。所以我不打算假装在这个领域有专业知识。 但一般来说，当一家公司远期营收同比增长 300%，且今年营收从去年的几乎为零起步达到 8-9 亿美元时，这是一个积极信号。即使毛利率为 25%，仍有 5-6 亿美元的债务。但增长惊人，且是数据中心建设潮的受益者。 有时只需要对某个板块迈出信任的一步，并信任 X 上同行们的尽职调查（DD）。
英文原文
Initiated a small position ($50k shares, $50k April calls) in T1 Energy $TE $4.45, partly because I like League of Legends and Faker. I have energy positions such as $FLNC, SEI and $EOSE (trimmed) that performed very well. But like the rest, energy is pointed to benefit from the data center buildout and a $700m MC is a good risk-reward. I can confidently say I don’t know enough about solar/battery/energy to give a good fundamental thesis but got recommended this from other X users. So I’m not going to try to pretend I have domain expertise in this. But generally, when a company Grows forward revenue 300% y/y and starts the year off with 800-900m revenue from almost 0 the previous year, this a positive sign. Even with 25% gross margins, there’s quite a lot of debt 500-600m. But the growth is staggering and a beneficiary of the data center buildout. Sometimes just need to take the leap of faith with a sector and trust DD of peers on X.
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建议做多NBIS/WLAC及TSM/AMZN看涨期权，认为当前是最佳做多时机。
@capybara_830 说实话，$NBIS、$WLAC，然后将 $NVO 拆分并买入 6 个月后的 $TSM 和 $AMZN 看涨期权，听起来太完美了。目前已有两次降息预期，且市场刚经历回调，正进入季节性表现最佳的月份。如果现在有任何时机做多，那就是现在。
英文原文
@capybara_830 Honestly $NBIS, $WLAC, then splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful. There’s 2x rate cuts and a recent correction going into the best seasonal months. Now’s the best time to go long if any.
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对比NBIS基本面与量子计算股泡沫，认为后者估值虚高。
区别在于，$NBIS 在2026年的远期营收(Forward Revenue)为40-60亿美元，毛利率(Gross Margins)约为70%。 其市值为280亿美元，且存在支撑该估值的前瞻性增长基本面。 而量子计算(Quantum)公司大多尚未实现营收，其大量收入来自利息而非营收。像 $RGTI 和 $QBTS 这样没有实质性远期营收的公司，市值却高达数百亿美元，这显然是泡沫。
英文原文
The difference is that $NBIS is doing 4-6B forward revenue in 2026 off ~70% gross margins. The market cap is 28B and forward growth fundamentals are there to support valuation. Quantum are pre-revenue with a lot of their income coming from interest instead of revenue. Companies like $RGTI and $QBTS that have no meaningful forward revenue, while being valued at tens of billions is a bubble.
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认为地缘政治风险可控，看好台积电及AI基建股。
并非如此。无论特朗普政府还是其他政府，中国都不会入侵台湾，因为 $TSM 是美国最大的国家安全风险之一。 美国没有全民医保是有原因的，任何可能入侵的国家都会发现原因并遭到彻底摧毁。 因此，我对 $TSM 及相关半导体或 AI 基础设施建设 $NBIS 感到放心。
英文原文
Not really. China won’t invade Taiwan under Trump administration or others since $TSM is one of the largest national security risks to United States. There’s a reason US doesn’t have universal healthcare and any country that might invade would find out why + get flattened to the ground. Hence why I’m comfortable with $TSM and related semis or AI buildout $NBIS
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计划买入$TE，但坦言非能源专业领域。
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy 是的，我可能会买入一些 $TE，它已经在我关注列表中一段时间了。不过能源领域并非我的专业领域，所以我的评论可能没那么有用。
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy Yeah I’ll probably be buying a bit of $TE, it’s been on my radar for awhile. Energy isn’t really in my domain expertise though, so my commentary wouldn’t be as useful
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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博主看好WLAC和NBIS，认为WLAC IPO潜力巨大。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，我非常看好 $WLAC 和 $NBIS，那是我的前两名。 $WLAC 在首次公开募股(IPO) 时拥有巨大的上涨空间，只是目前还没有人知道 boost 这个指标，不过它确实是个很棒的指标！我也应该用用看哈哈。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah I really liked $WLAC and $NBIS, those were my top 2. WLAC has huge upside when they IPO, just nobody knows about boost yet, great metric though! I should use that too lol
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FLY借NOC技术降低风险，有望在2026-27年竞争中型火箭市场。
我之前写过，简而言之是 $FLY 正在与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭，而由 $NOC 共同开发将降低任何执行风险。在俄乌战争导致其供应链崩溃之前，NOC 就已经拥有成熟的 expendable medium-lifts（一次性中型运载火箭）。NOC + Fly = 即插即用的中型运载火箭基本就绪，他们只需将其改为可重复使用即可。我的论点(Thesis)是，Fly 可以通过依托诺斯罗普的可重复使用中型运载火箭发射器，跳过自行构建成功小型运载火箭的过程，从而与猎鹰9号(Falcon 9)竞争。如果他们在 2026-2027 年成功实现，市值从 30-40 亿增长 5-10 倍是有可能的。此外，我认为市场并未计入诺斯罗普执行此计划的可能性，因为人们只关注 FLY 的失败，但 NOC 是最大的政府航空航天承包商之一。
英文原文
I wrote about it earlier but a TLDR was $FLY was working with Northrop on reuable medium lift and having $NOC co-developing it would reduce any execution risk. NOC had working expendable medium-lifts already before Russia-Ukraine war and their supply chain fell apart. NOC + Fly = Working medium lift plug and play med kinda ready to go, they just needed to make it re-usable. Thesis was Fly can leapfrog building successful small-lift themselves by piggy backing off of Northrop on reusable medium-lift launchers to complete with falcon9 and upside on a 3-4B marketcap could be 5-10x if they got it to work in 2026-2027. I also didn't think markets were pricing in Northrop executing on this cause they just keep pointing to FLY's failures but, NOC is one of the largest government aerospace contractors.
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做市商压制NBIS股价，预期周一空头平仓后反弹，故买入看涨期权。
做市商(MM)很可能正在对 $NBIS 进行价格压制(Pinning)，尽管市场波动，股价仍卡在 $113.5 附近。我预计周一空头对冲头寸将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并卖出看涨期权 -> 临近到期时存在大量空头头寸），价格将回升，因此我利用这次机会在高隐含波动率(IV)下买入看涨期权。
英文原文
It's likely MM pinning for $NBIS, you can see this with the price stuck at $113.5 despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up, hence why I used this time to buy calls despite elevated IV.
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看好某只股票，认为持有无问题且上行空间大。
@Lxizny 这是一只很棒的股票，持有它没有任何问题，上行空间很大。
英文原文
@Lxizny It's a great stock, nothing wrong with holding, lot of upside.
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NBIS下跌源于交易因素非基本面，建议周一做市商解除对冲后做多。
是的，$NBIS 这10%的下跌是市场做市商(MM)的对冲加上期权平仓（混合了散户的保证金清算），并非基本面有任何变化。 -> 很多人卖出了看跌期权(Puts) -> 很多人持有的看涨期权(Calls)本周到期。 你可以看到盘后股价完全被钉在$113.5。 在我看来，周一市场做市商(MM)解除空头对冲后，现在是做多和买入的好时机。
英文原文
Yeah this $NBIS 10% drop was MM hedging + option unwinds (with a mix of retail margin liqudations), not any changes to fundamentals. -> Lot of people sold puts -> Lot of people had calls expiring this week. You can see how the stock is completely pinned at $113.5 after hours. Great time to go long and buy positions IMO after MMs unwind short hedges Monday.
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博主在 HIMS 大跌时加仓，表示拥抱波动。
@DeepValueBagger 我今天实际上在 $HIMS 下跌 14.34% 至 50.7 美元时加仓了。拥抱波动 🎢
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I just added $HIMS today actually at $50.7 on the 14.34% drop Embrace the volatility 🎢
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认同对方观点，因判断为极端下跌而买入LEAPS。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，完全正确。我只是觉得这是极端下跌，所以最终选择了做多LEAPS（长期股权预期权）。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yep, spot on. I just felt like this was the extreme drop so ended up doing leaps.
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博主计划在NBIS大跌时买入长期期权。
@DeepValueBagger 我一直在等待像这样（基本面没有实质性变化）10%以上的跌幅，以便买入 $NBIS 的长期期权（LEAPS）。很高兴你也看到了这个机会。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I've been waiting for a 10%+ drop like this (with no material changes to fundamentals) to buy leaps on $NBIS. Glad you see the opportunity too.
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作者基于信念交易，认为NBIS长期期权表现将类似HOOD的V型反转。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 的LEAPS（长期期权）应该会有不错的表现，这让我想起$HOOD从40美元跌至29美元，随后反弹至100美元以上的时期。 我基于自己的信念进行交易！
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@soulbiri1 $NBIS leaps should print, reminds me of the time $HOOD went from $40 to $29 then went on a rally to $100+. I trade on my own conviction!
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NBIS市值逼近OKLO，但前者明年ARR预计达40-60亿。
@_visionarius 当然！$NBIS 的市值几乎追平了 $OKLO。区别在于后者尚未产生收入，而 Nebius 明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)预计将达到 40-60 亿美元 lol。
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@_visionarius Of course! $NBIS is almost at $OKLO's marketcap. The difference is the latter is pre-revenue and Nebius is set to do $4-6B ARR next year lol.
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博主在NBIS大跌时加仓30万看涨LEAPS，视其为绝佳买入机会。
抛售 $NBIS 我个人在这个价位加购了30万美元的看涨LEAPS（长期股权预期证券），在我看来，10%的跌幅是巨大的买入机会。
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Fire sale $NBIS Personally added $300K in call leaps at this level, 10% drop is a huge buying opportunity imo. https://t.co/EYYmETApmP
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AI核心标的275美元为极佳买点
@spybear180 是的，约 275 美元。整个 AI 交易的核心，即使在 291 美元也是极佳的买入机会。
英文原文
@spybear180 Yeah ~$275. Center of the whole AI trade, even at $291 it’s an amazing buy
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降息在即，建议利用回调做多NBIS、TSM等高确信度AI及科技股。
距离降息还有12天（概率94.1%）。做市商(MMs)喜欢利用这样的时机清洗期权链(option chain)。 就我个人关注的杠杆交易(leveraged trades)关键价位而言： $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKLB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ 特别点名亚马逊，尽管市场反弹，其年初至今(YTD)仍下跌4.6%。 $AMZN - $200-$210（现在$211买入看涨期权(calls)极佳，让我想起$GOOGL在史诗级反弹前的$145。基本上现在看起来不错，但像Google一样，它跌破了人们预期的水平，所以甚至可能触及$200） 我对高确信度(high conviction)标的使用保证金+期权没问题，这只是我个人的风险承受能力，非财务建议(NFA)。 现在是做多高确信度标的的最佳时机。
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We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain. In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKlB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally. $AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200) I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA. These times are the best to go long on high conviction.
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TSM财报超预期，作为AI核心受益，股价看涨至450美元以上。
$TSM 财报大爆，符合预期。它们是整个 Neocloud 交易和 AI 建设的核心。 鉴于 46% 的每股收益 (EPS) 同比增长（利润率扩张）和 37% 的营收同比增长，$TSM 轻松突破 $450+。（不过由于期权流向，短期可能会有些波动） ✅ 营收 $322.7 亿（预期 $316.1 亿） ✅ EPS: $2.84（预期 $2.63） 前瞻指引： ✅ 前瞻营收：$322 亿–$334 亿（预期 $320 亿） ✅ 毛利率：59–61% 作为大盘股，增长和利润令人惊叹。
英文原文
$TSM blowout earnings as expected. They’re the center of the whole Neocloud trade and AI Buildout. TSM is easily going to $450+ with 46% EPS y/y (expanding margins) and 37% revenue growth y/y. (Short term might be a little volatile because of option flow though) ✅ Revenue $32.27B (Est. $31.61B) ✅ EPS: $2.84 (Est. $2.63) Guidance: ✅ Forward Rev: $32.2B–$33.4B (Est. $32.0B) ✅ Gross Margin: 59–61% Amazing growth and profit as a mega cap.
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博主认为NBIS无利空下跌是买入机会，并在122.9美元附近加仓看涨期权。
没有新闻的下跌总是 $NBIS 的礼物。 （在约 $122.9 处加仓了看涨期权） https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
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No news dips are always a nice gift $NBIS. (Added calls at~$122.9) https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
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核能股涨势延续，受美军基地核电计划利好推动。
接着……投机性核反应堆股票的涨势仍在继续 $NKLR $OKLO $SMR 华尔街日报：“美军将使用核反应堆为基地供电” https://t.co/COEteFJUeE
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and... the speculative nuclear reactor stock run continues $NKLR $OKLO $SMR WSJ: "US Army to Power Bases with Nuclear Reactors" https://t.co/COEteFJUeE
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建议直接持有$WYFI，避免ETH控股公司的稀释风险。
@Rainier_hs 一个值得吸取的教训是，公司经常以低于净资产价值(NAV)的价格交易。而且，鉴于这是一家以太坊(ETH)控股公司，且为了非高性能计算(HPC)目的进行稀释，我宁愿直接持有 $WYFI。
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@Rainier_hs A good lesson to learn is that companies trade under NAV all the time. And especially since it's an ETH holding company that dilutes for non HPC purposes, would rather just get direct exposure to $WYFI.
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WLAC提交Form 425，因市场认知度低且具高回报潜力而买入。
@genZinvest0r 是的，$WLAC 就在大约 20 分钟前提交了 Form 425（招股说明书最终版），这应该是一个很好的催化剂。除了金融圈（finx）的人，几乎没人知道这件事，所以大家都处于极早期的阶段。不过，我确实能看到它实现 200-300% 回报的潜力，这也是我买入的原因。https://t.co/dHsw7Xy1xk
英文原文
@genZinvest0r Yeah $WLAC just filed their form 425 like 20 minutes ago so should be a good catalyst. Almost nobody outside of finx knows about it, so everyone is extremely early. But yeah can definitely see it being a 200-300% return, which is why I bought in. https://t.co/dHsw7Xy1xk
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博主基于宏观利好更新美股AI/半导体/能源等板块的强烈买入、买入及持有名单。
大豆/植物油崩盘，个人思考与解释： 强烈买入 $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC （+ 同上次税务收割股） $AMZN $SMCI _ 买入 $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH 持有 $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS （已达推文股票代码上限，其余同上次帖子，Quantum或Oklo仍建议卖出） _ 强烈买入 ALAB - 数据中心建设的重要组成部分，拥有类似英伟达(NVDA)的利润率，客户包括Mag7。已有来自博通(AVGO)的竞争者，真的不认为Arista会构成竞争威胁。 CRDO - 与ALAB同样的抛售，之前觉得两者都略有高估，但现在回到修正区间，适合补仓。 NBIS - $400目标价牛市情景。宏观顺风来自政府重新开放+10月底降息预期进入财报季，短期前景看好。利好众多（如Meta x CRWV，因此有更多Mag7客户的潜力），分部表现良好，例如Clickhouse，季度收入从$1亿扩展到$15亿+非常惊人。合同已锁定，只是公司执行的问题。 WLAC - 之前在$13时写过投资逻辑。即使在$14.5也很强，因为它可以轻松重估100%+。 LTC - 受杠杆交易者和政府停摆影响。预计停摆将持续一段时间，主要买入理由是ETF获批。但无论如何，低于$100都是很好的买入点，因为最终会获批（~95%概率）。 TSM - 天哪。如果是美国公司这将是$3万亿市值的公司，利润率惊人，对于其规模而言增长率惊人。每篇关于OpenAI X (**Sydney Sweeney合作)或AMD建设/NVDA建设的帖子中，TSM都是核心，即使以历史高点买入，也轻松成为$2万亿+公司（目前约$1.5万亿）。 BTC - $112K是好的入场点。黄金不断创历史新高，基本面没什么变化，只是最近大量清算。 （+ 同上次税务收割股） AMZN - 我真不知道为什么年初至今还在跌。我觉得亚马逊不需要太多解释，但仍在增长（例如AWS积压订单巨大，仍增长24%，当然不如ORCL、GCP等），但考虑到年底季节性和2月前的上涨，现在可能是抄底的最佳时机。AMZN今天触及$213-215是补仓的好机会，因为短期波段交易通常浮动在$218-$227，但长期我预计它会追赶其他Mag7。 SMCI - 被低估。市场关注短期表现，Charles引用的55%+同比前瞻收入增长无人相信+未实现的积压订单。但现在随着所有数据中心建设，这开始说得通了。因此应在接下来两次财报中重估。 _ 买入 AMD - OpenAI x AMD，Oracle使用AMD建设，这么多交易，如果它确实是$NVDA的强劲竞争对手，将重估为潜在$1万亿+公司。我不认为赢家通吃，可以看到$NVDA $4.5万亿+市值和$AMD $3500亿市值，所以我们可以看到大幅拉升（OpenAI通常是前沿模型领导者，如果Sam说他们可以使用AMD芯片+Elon说它对中小模型有益，可能意味着积极信号） FLNC - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 SEI - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 BZAI - 别人做过这家公司的深度研究，仅因板块和向边缘计算转移（例如机器人将很热）。由于低市值和类似公司的上涨可能表现良好。 NKLR - 像$OKLO这样的核能股已经起飞，这只是跟随梯队。 IREN - 无需介绍，巨大的GW算力，只是还没有宣布Mag7交易，但随时可能到来 -> 强劲重估。不是强烈买入的唯一原因是因为不完全确信矿工能像CRWV那样转型并保持高利润率（例如$ORCL打击文章），但我们会看到。 WULF - GOOGL积压订单，另外$3.6+亿左右的资金帮助很大。 CIFR - X上有很多关于未来产能和强劲重估的信息。一直喜欢这家公司，因为它是NBIS-lite。你可以买任何Neocloud，因为板块潜力巨大，Mag7将收入注入。 CRWV - 因为债务不像其他人那样喜欢，但由于植物油修正，$134（低于META交易宣布时）是更好的买入点 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 WYFI - Neocloud类别相同 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 GLXY - Neocloud类别相同，有助于其建设 RBRK - 做过深度研究，中期网络安全板块很好的买入，他们只需缩减营销，然后看起来有更多自由现金流，因为他们将大部分运营支出花在营销上。 GRAB - 基本面很好，-6.56%修正再次买入 SEA - 东南亚的AMZN，很多人使用。仅因客户群+变现潜力就买入。基本面$50亿+收入38% Y/Y增长也很好。 META - 我真的很不喜欢他们在AI上的昂贵资本支出，因为他们并没有像ChatGPT那样推出前沿模型，谁知道Zuck在做什么。但除此之外，一个月下跌7.3%，回到$700支撑位，可能在这里买入以追赶是个好主意。 TGT - 下个月股息是好的催化剂。 SNAP - Jenners回来了（有助于人气），他们将前记忆运营支出转为收入，这可能会导致明年巨大的重估。只是受税务收割影响，否则现在会是强烈买入。通常税务收割事件在12月完成。 MU - 现在中国恐惧稍微减弱，MU因为建设中的内存使用而成为更强的买入。 RKLB - 中子，金色穹顶合同，很多催化剂 FLY - 中等提升 UNH - 不受大豆影响的医疗保健股，但有修正。机构发布持仓后可能会上涨（例如Warren可能买了更多） 随机想法 基本上任何不是Oklo的成长/风险股都很好，因为我们有 -> 10月底降息 -> 政府重新开放（可能在10月底或11月初） 进入 -> 12月降息。 -> 中期选举（对股票看涨） 通常市场崩盘发生在紧缩而非宽松时。你的愚蠢量子泡沫可能会再持续3-12个月。如果你做空，可能等到明年2月。 无论如何，这是风险偏好的好时机，特别是搭乘Neoclouds -> 相关板块（例如能源）-> 相关公司（例如smci, tsm等）的趋势。 我半开玩笑地说大豆，因为它可能签署了升级紧张局势，但我可能会看到明年前的上涨。另外我可以写很多关于每一个的内容，但这很耗时，但我会不时发布关于随机股票如$RBRK的投资逻辑帖子。 太空/机器人/能源/量子/AI/半导体/关键垂直领域是目前最顶级的，不要对抗动量。我可以认为某些东西被高估了（例如一些关键材料，因为与Neoclouds相比仍然具有投机性，后者基于Mag7的执行有保证的收入），但我不会在降息时做空它。 只是个人想法，非财务建议
英文原文
The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations: Strong Buy $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) $AMZN $SMCI _ Buy $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH Hold $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS (Hit the ticker maximum but everything else from last post, still sell on Quantum or Oklo) _ Strong Buys ALAB - Huge part of datacenter buildout, NVDA like margins, Mag7 customers. Already had competitors from AVGO, really don't think Arista would be a competitive threat. CRDO - Same sell-off as ALAB, thought they were both kind of overvalued before, but now they're back in correction territory so good to stock up. NBIS - $400 PT bull case. We have macro tailwind from government re-opening + rate cut EOM october into earnings, so short term looks promising. Lot of things going for it (eg. meta x crwv, so there's potential for more mag7 clients), sum of parts doing well, eg. clickhouse, and scaling rev from $100m to $1.5B+ a quarter is insane. there's already contracts locked in its just a matter of company execution. WLAC - Wrote a thesis about this earlier at $13. Even at $14.5 strong because it can re-rate 100%+ easily. LTC - Affected by leverage traders and government shutdown. The shutdown is predicted to last awhile and the main reason to buy was the ETF getting approved. But a great buy sub <$100 anyway, because it will get approved in due time (~95% chance). TSM - Holy crap. This would be a $3T company if this were a US company, insane profit margins, insane growth rate for their size. And every post you see about OpenAi X (**sydney sweeney partnership) or AMD buildout/NVDA buildout. TSM is the center of it all and would easily be a $2T+ company (from here at ~$1.5T), even if buying at ATHs. BTC - $112K good entry point. Goldt keeps hitting ATH, nothing really changed fundamentally, just lot of liquidations recently (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) AMZN - I really don't know how it's still down YTD. I don't think Amazon needs much explaining but still growing (eg. AWS backlog massive, still going like 24% but not as much as ORCL, GCP and others obviously), but with EOY seasonality and runup to Feb, now is probably the best chance to catch the bottom. AMZN hitting $213-215 today was a good chance to stock up since it usually floats between $218-$227 if you're short term swing trading but long term I'd expect it to catchup to other mag7. SMCI - Underrated. Markets were looking short term performance, and Charles was quoting like 55%+ Y/Y forward revenue growth which nobody believed + backlog that didnt get realized yet. But now with all the data center buildouts, now it's kinda making sense. So should re-rate in the next two earnings. _ Buy AMD - So many deals from OpenAI x AMD, oracle building out with AMD, this is going to re-rate to a potential $1T+ company if it's actually a strong competitive to $NVDA. I don't think it's winner takes all and you can see a $4.5T+ market cap size with NVDA and some $350B marketcap size with AMD, so we can see a large ramp up (OpenAI is usually the leader in frontier models and if Sam says they can use AMD chips + elon said its' good for small-medium weight models, prboably means something positive) FLNC - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. SEI - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. BZAI - Someone else did a DD on this company, just cause of sector and shift to edge compute (eg. Robotics goign to be hot). Because of low MC and runup of similar companies could turn out well. NKLR - Nuclear stocks like $OKLO have been taking off, this is just follow the lader. IREN - Needs no introduction, huge GW compute capacity just no announced mag7 deals yet but could come anytime -> strong re-rate. Only reason not a strong buy is because not fully convinced miners can pivot like CRWV and maintain great margins (eg. $ORCL hit piece) but we'll see. WULF - GOOGL backlog, another $3.6+ or so in funding helps a lot. CIFR - Lot of info on X about future capacity and strong re-rating. Always liked this company because it was NBIS-lite. You can probably buy any Neocloud and it will go up because the sector is incredibly high potential with Mag7 funneling revenue. CRWV - Didn't like this as much as others because of debt but because of the seed oil correction much better buy point at $134 (below when META deal was announced) BITF - Same in Neocloud category WYFI - Same in Neocloud category BITF - Same in Neocloud category GLXY - Same in Neocloud category, helps with their buildout RBRK - Did a DD on this, great buy for cybersecurity sector in mid term, they just need to scale back marketing and then it looks like they have a lot more FCF because they're spending most OPEX on marketing. GRAB - Great fundamentally, -6.56% correction good to buy again SEA - AMZN in SEA, tons of people use them. Just a buy just because of costumer base + monetization potenetial. Fundamentally growing $5B+ rev 38% Y/Y is also great. META - I really don't like all their expensive capex on AI since they're not really putting out fronteir models like ChatGPT with it, who knows what Zuck is doing. But that aside, down 7.3% over the month, going to $700 support, probably a good buy around here to play catchup. TGT - Dividend next month good catalyst. SNAP - The Jenners are coming back (helps with popularity), they're shifting former memory opex to revenue, and this will probably cause a HUGE rerating next year. Just suffers from tax harvesting otherwise would be a strong buy rn. Usually tax harvesting events are kinda done in December. MU - Now that China fears are kinda less intense, MU is a lot stronger buy just cause of memory use on buildout. RKLB - Neutron, golden dome contracts, lot of cataylsts FLY - Medium lift UNH - Healthcare stock not affected by soybeans but had a correction. Would likely go up one instituions post their ports (eg. warren likely bought more) Random thoughts Basically any growth/risk stock that's not named Oklo is great because we have -> Rate Cut end of month October -> Government re-opening sometime (likely around end of Oct or early Nov) Into -> Rate Cut December. -> Midterms (Bullish for stocks) Usually market crashes happen when there's tightening not easing. And your stupid quantum bubbles would likely continue for another 3-12 months afterward. If you're short, then probably wait till next Feb. Anyway, this is a great time for risk-on, and specially riding trends with neoclouds -> affiliated sectors (eg. energy) -> affiliated companies (eg. smci, tsm, etc). I half joke-about soybeans because it likely signed escalating tensions, but I'd probably see a run-up into next year. Also I could write up a lot about each one but it's pretty time consuming but I'll put on a thesis post about random ones eg. $RBRK, from time to time. Space/robotics/energy/quantum/ai/semi/critical top verticals right now, don't fight against momentum. I can think something is overvalued (eg. some critical materials bc. it's still spectulative compared to neoclouds that kinda have guaranteed rev based on execution from mag7) but I wouldn't short it into rate cuts. Just personal thoughts, NFA
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宏观降息与基本面改善将推动NBIS估值重估。
至少对于2025年的$NBIS而言： 宏观层面 -> 政府重新开放至月底降息，进而进入财报季（这对大多数成长股是巨大的催化剂） -> 12月进行第二次降息。 基本面 -> Nebius或相关公司（如Coreweave）获得更多“七巨头(Mag7)”的合同。 -> 财报发布（基于前瞻指引，其估值应大幅重估） -> 分部投资正走向IPO。
英文原文
At least for 2025 on $NBIS Macro wise -> Gov re-open into rate cut end of month into earnings (huge huge catalyst for most growth stocks) -> Second rate cut in December. Fundamentals -> More Mag7 contracts for Nebius or related companies like Coreweave. -> Earnings report (they should re-rate really hard on this with forward projections) -> Sum of parts investments moving toward IPO.
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博主因行业因素考虑明日加仓，并提及个人游戏偏好。
@mysticall3g3nd 这让我想起我最喜欢的英雄联盟战队，可能会因为行业原因明天加仓。
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd Reminds me of my favorite league of legends team, probably will add tomorrow cause industry
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认为ALAB超卖，CRDO随Astera抛售，大豆是佳选
@DanielTan64198 另一家与 $ALAB 竞争的公司（我认为它被超卖了，因为尽管已有 $AVGO 这样的大竞争对手，但大型科技公司仍在采购其产品），$CRDO 随 Astera 一同抛售。另外，大豆也是很好的加仓标的。
英文原文
@DanielTan64198 Another company competing vs $ALAB (think it’s oversold bc they already have big competitors like $AVGO but big tech uses them anyway), $CRDO just sold off with Astera. Also soybeans, both great adds
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机构低位增持 $NBIS，认为其将赋能 Azure，建议勿因噪音卖出。
机构在低位进行了一些有趣的操作，以积累 $NBIS 流通盘的另外 20%。 机构持股比例为 38%（极低）（优质公司通常在 60-80%），而对冲基金开始终于意识到 Nebius 未来将为 MSFT Azure 和许多其他前沿模型提供动力。 所以，在“大豆籽油”新闻上卖出并不是个好主意，但这可能像 Oracle 的抹黑文章一样甩掉了一些散户。
英文原文
Institutions do some fun stuff to accumulate another 20% of the float of $NBIS at lower levels. Institutional ownership is 38% (extremely low) (60-80% usually on great companies), and hedge funds are starting to finally realize Nebius will power MSFT Azure and many other frontier models in the future. So yeah, not a good idea to sell on the Soybean Seed Oil news, but probably shook off some retail like the Oracle hit piece.
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NBIS作为AI核心基建营收激增，却因农产品因素下跌。
人工智能是历史上最大的国家安全问题与竞赛。 AI 可以基于算力设计核武器或创造改变生活的发现。 $NBIS 是 AI 和 Mag7（七大科技巨头）的新基础设施，其远期营收同比增长 1400%。 🥭然而，因为种子油和豆类（农产品）的影响，它跌了 5.4%。 https://t.co/VRd8RoLB4a
英文原文
AI is the largest national security issue and race in history. AI can design nuclear weapons or create life changing discoveries based on compute. $NBIS is the new infra of AI and Mag7 with 1400% Y/Y forward revenue. 🥭And it sold off 5.4% because of Seed Oils and Soybeans. https://t.co/VRd8RoLB4a
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用游戏卡组比喻构建新云AI基础设施投资组合。
🧙♂️ 召唤艾克佐迪亚，理想的“新云”卡组 艾克佐迪亚卡组： 🧩 $NBIS – 头部 🧩 $WLAC – 左臂 🧩 $IREN – 右臂 🧩 $CIFR – 左腿 🧩 $WULF – 右腿 贪婪壶配置： 🏭 $TSM ⚡ $FLNC 🏡 $GLXY 当这五张牌全部进入你的投资组合时，Sydney Sweeney 将从“新云”降临 https://t.co/dlnjgCAIxl
英文原文
🧙♂️ Summoning Exodia, the ideal Neocloud Deck Exodia Deck: 🧩 $NBIS – Head 🧩 $WLAC – Left Arm 🧩 $IREN – Right Arm 🧩 $CIFR – Left Leg 🧩 $WULF – Right Leg Pot of Greed Setup: 🏭 $TSM ⚡ $FLNC 🏡 $GLXY When all five are in your port, Sydney Sweeney descends from the Neocloud https://t.co/dlnjgCAIxl
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预测NBIS股价将突破400美元。
@nateschanker @mvcinvesting @EndicottInvests @investwithsheng @TradeSignalHQ $NBIS 涨至 $400+！
英文原文
@nateschanker @mvcinvesting @EndicottInvests @investwithsheng @TradeSignalHQ $NBIS to $400+!
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看好$NBIS，认为Mag7收入外溢将带动新云厂商上涨。
@Rexxig $NBIS 牛市情景下目标价$400。目前股价为$135。 绝对值得至少建仓 Nebius。虽然不能对其他标的说同样的话（指同样安全），但随着 Mag7 将收入向下漏斗式转移，所有新云厂商都应上涨。
英文原文
@Rexxig $NBIS $400 PT on a bull case. It's sitting at $135. Definitely worth dropping into Nebius at least. Can't really say the same as safely for the rest, but all neoclouds should go up with mag7 funneling revenue down to them.
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NBIS凭借全栈软件及多元客户，长期潜力优于IREN。
IREN 短期内可能因原始算力(GW)优势而表现优异，但 $NBIS 具备在市场修正/崩盘中存活并最终成为下一个市值超1000亿美元的 $MSFT 的潜力，其价值源于各部分投资之和。此外，他们拥有多元化的客户群（从 $ORCL 财报中我们已看到其重要性）。同时具备全栈+软件编排能力（从 $ORCL 财报及 $CRWV 收购软件公司中可见其重要性）。市场正在定价矿工转型的能力，但正如甲骨文案例所示，始终存在盈利风险，因此 NBIS 已具备这一优势。
英文原文
IREN might outperform near term just because of raw GW but $NBIS has the potential to outlast any market correction/crash and become the next $100B+ $MSFT with sum of parts investments. Also they have diversified client base (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report) Also full stack + software orchestration (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report and why $CRWV has been buying up software companies). People are pricing in miners being able to pivot but there's always profitability risk as seen with oracle, hence why NBIS already has that down.
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博主完全赞同关于NBIS的观点。
@arpit_sidana $NBIS 100%（完全同意）
英文原文
@arpit_sidana $NBIS 100%
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博主因补涨逻辑买入$WULF，以集齐新型云服务商投资组合。
今天，我内心那个WSB（华尔街赌徒）的声音说话了…… 所以今天冲进了 $WULF，在发现它涨幅不大（3.6%）而 $CIFR 和 $WYFI 都涨了28%之后，以此凑齐“Neoclouds”（新型云服务商）的“艾克佐迪亚”（游戏王卡片组合，意指集齐关键组件）。（之前已经少量买入了一些 $WYFI、$WLAC 和 $BITF） $WULF 拥有与 $CIFR 类似的 $GOOGL 合同。https://t.co/0oYU9TtaxV
英文原文
Today the WSB degen inside me spoke... So aped into $WULF today to complete exodia of the Neoclouds after seeing it not go up much (3.6%) while $CIFR, $WYFI both went up 28%. (bought $WYFI, $WLAC and $BITF a little earlier on) Similar $GOOGL contract as $CIFR. https://t.co/0oYU9TtaxV
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博主表示更看好 $WLAC
@LibertadEterno 我更喜欢 $WLAC
英文原文
@LibertadEterno i prefer $WLAC
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质疑Boost财务数据准确性，分析其与Fluidstack合作及获Mag7客户潜力。
Boost 此前预测其年度经常性收入(ARR)为2.75亿美元，毛利率75%，IPO估值6亿美元。我不认为那个790万美元的数字是准确的。此外，Fluidstack 1.8亿美元的 ARR 很可能是一个严重滞后的快照，因为那是2024年的数据。目前尚不清楚他们与 Fluidstack 的合作模式，但鉴于 $CIFR 和 $WULF 正是通过这种方式获得合同，他们有望获得 $GOOGL 等 Mag7 客户的业务。
英文原文
Boost was projecting ARR of $275M forward revenue, 75% gross margin, IPO at $600m valuation. Don't think that $7.9m number was accurate. Also Fluidstack's ARR at $180m is likely a way lagging snapshot since that was 2024. Not too clear how they work with Fluidstack yet, there's potential for Mag7 clients like $GOOGL since that's how $CIFR and $WULF got the contracts.
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提醒新手注意 $WLAC 盘前流动性风险，并分析其作为 Neocloud 的高增长潜力。
给新手的 $WLAC 提示： 尽量避免在盘后/盘前买入这类低流通盘的小市值股票，因为流动性极低且买卖价差（Bid-Ask Spread）很大（如果非要买，请挂限价单）。 例如，目前的买价是 $13.8，卖价是 $15.08，如果你不挂限价单而是直接市价买入，你会立即亏损 9.28%。 此外，与正常交易时段相比，流动性匮乏导致价格波动被放大，次日可能会回归正常。 _ 背景信息：$WLAC 是一家 SPAC IPO，将转换为 Boost，估值约 6 亿美元。 Boost 是一家 Neocloud（新型云服务商），与 $WULF / $CIFR 最相似，因为它们都与 Fluidstack 合作，而 Fluidstack 由 $GOOGL 支持。 其优势在于已有 75%+ 的 EBITDA 毛利率，这非常棒，且营收同比增长 250%，估值较低。它将从近期的 Neocloud 热潮中大幅受益，并可能因获得一份 Mag7（七大科技巨头）合同而大幅重估。 可能在接下来两个月内任何时间 IPO，这只是个等待游戏。
英文原文
Just a heads up about $WLAC to newcomers: Try not to buy these types of low-float small MC stocks after-hours/pre-market due to really low liquidity + high spread (and if you do, place limit orders). Bid-Ask is $13.8, Sell $15.08 right now as an example, so you're losing 9.28% immediately if you don't limit buy a stock and just place a 100x buy order. There's also a lack of liquidity compared to normal market hours so a lot of price movements are inflated + could go back to normal the next day. _ For context, $WLAC is an SPAC IPO that converts into Boost ~$600m valuation. Boost is a Neocloud most similar to $WULF / $CIFR in that they work with Fluidstack, which is backstopped by $GOOGL. The benefit was that they already have 75%+ EBITDA gross margin, which is incredibly great and are 250% rev y/y + low valuation. It should benefit a lot from the Neocloud run recently + could re-rate largely with one mag7 contract. Could IPO anytime in the next two months, it's just a waiting game.
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因行情垂直飙升，停止卖CIFR看涨期权并买入NBIS。
@pepemoonboy 本周我停止了对 $CIFR 卖出看涨期权(CC) 以买入 $NBIS，因为所有走势都呈垂直飙升态势。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I stopped selling CC's this week for $CIFR to $NBIS because everything is just going vertical.
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看好RKLB长期潜力，并推荐NBIS等替代标的。
@paramdan42454 只要基本面良好，股票在长期内总是会上涨的。 我认为 $RKLB 总有一天会像 SpaceX 一样达到 3500 亿美元的市场规模，而它现在才 300 亿美元。 如果你觉得自己错过了什么，也总有新的机会，比如 $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 Stonks always go higher over longer periods of time if they’re fundamentally good. I think $RKLB will go to $350B market cap one day like SpaceX and it’s still $30B now. There’s always new opportunities too if you feel like you missed something like $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC
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上调NBIS目标价至450美元，重申其他新云标的跑赢大盘评级。
随着泰勒·斯威夫特进入新云(NeoCloud)领域，即便GPT-5拥有10GW算力也找不到她持久的男友。 我将$NBIS的1年目标价上调至$450，并重申对其他标的的跑赢大盘(outperform)评级，原因是能源消耗无限。
英文原文
With Taylor Swift entering the Neocloud space, not even 10GW compute on GPT-5 can find her a lasting boyfriend. Raising my 1Y price target on $NBIS to $450 and reiterating outperform on the rest due to infinite energy consumption. $WLAC $CIFR $FLNC $IREN $TSM $AMD $BITF $WYFI $GLXY
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对比FLNC与CIFR，建议分散配置避免过度集中于AI基建。
@woosla79 它们都很好且相关，说实话，如果比较 $FLNC 和 $CIFR，我不知道哪个涨得更快。同时持有两者以获取敞口是不错的，但不要过度集中于人工智能基础设施建设。
英文原文
@woosla79 They’re all really good and related, I don’t know what would go up faster if you compare $FLNC with $CIFR, tbh. Good to have exposure to both, but don’t be overly concentrated on AI buildout.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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解析$NBIS全栈优势及分部估值，给出$400目标价，对比$CIFR/$IREN。
我仍持有6位数的随机$CIFR期权，但信心不高。 简短总结我对$NBIS比其他公司更有信心的原因： -Nebius是全栈式(full-stack) -> 利润率更高（GPU利用率的软件编排，我们曾讨论过其重要性，以及从$ORCL建设失败中建立的护城河，还有$CRWV收购大量软件公司的原因）。 -分部估值(sum of parts)（例如FTX投资Anthropic、$HOOD，它们在几年内都上涨了1000%）即使利润率受压，也能比主营业务更持久，且$NBIS在Clickhouse等优秀公司中持有大量股份。 -更分散的客户群（也从$ORCL那里学到了其重要性）用于建设->使用，相比其他Neoclouds。 高置信度$400目标价，牛市情景下1年内$1000亿市值。 我也做多$IREN等，仅因其电力容量，或$CIFR作为“轻量版Nebius”在融资+Mag7客户方面，但这与我坚信一家公司vs认为其基本面将跑赢略有不同。
英文原文
I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction. Short TLDR on why I have high conviction in $NBIS compared to others is because -Nebius is full stack -> higher margin (software orchestration for GPU utilization, we why that's important and a moat from $ORCL build-out failure, and why $CRWV bought out a lot of software companies). -sum of parts (eg. FTX investing in Anthropic, $HOOD, where they all went up 1000% over a few years) can outlast a main business even if margins got compressed and $NBIS has a large stake in great companies like Clickhouse -more diversified client base (learned from $ORCL why that's important too) for buildout -> usage compared to other Neoclouds. High conviction $400 PT, $100B MC in 1Y for a bull case. I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity or $CIFR being Nebius-light in terms how they did fundraising + Mag7 client but it's slightly different me believing in a company vs. thinking they will outform from fundamentals.
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博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
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地缘缓和与加密清算引发大跌，视为逢低买入机会
局势缓和了。 路透社：“台湾称芯片行业未受显著影响” 特朗普：“别担心中国，一切都会好起来……习主席只是经历了一个糟糕的时刻。” 史上最大规模的加密货币清算事件 受冲击较小的股票下跌7% 逢低买入的机会 https://t.co/2sUEV7Dg8s
英文原文
And there’s the de-escalation Reuters: “Taiwan sees no significant impact on chip sector” Trump: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine… President Xi just had a bad moment.” Biggest crypto liquidation to date Stocks with little impact down 7% Dip buying opportunity https://t.co/2sUEV7Dg8s
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博主补充了RDDT、AMD、VIRT及锂稀土股的买入价位与逻辑。
@Hoona1203 因为 X 帖子字数限制，我没能列出所有股票代码。否则，$RDDT 在 192 美元是买入点，$AMD 在 210 美元是买入点，$VIRT 在 33 美元是买入点（与其说是作为单一多头头寸，不如说是作为良好的对冲工具，且我认为其被低估 + 将在财报中体现），锂-稀土股票也是买入标的，等等。
英文原文
@Hoona1203 I ran out of tickers because X post limits, otherwise $RDDT was a buy at $192, $AMD was a buy at $210, $VIRT is a buy at $33 (not so much as single long but as a good hedge and I believe this undervalued + will show up in earnings), lithium-rare earth stocks are a buy and so on.
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建议小仓位配置该锂电小盘股，基本面未变。
这是一家市值仅7500万美元的锂电池公司，请不要像那样全仓押注小盘股，除非你有极高的确信度，否则建议最多配置5-10%的仓位。好在承销商在1.25美元时买入，所以它可能只是受宏观问题波及。据我所知，基本面没有实质性变化。
英文原文
It’s small $75m market cap lithium battery company, pls don’t full port small caps like that maybe like 5-10% of your portfolio max unless you have high conviction. On the bright side underwriters bought at $1.25, so it was probably just caught in the macro issues. Nothing materially changed afik