个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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PLTR估值极高，若政府更迭其政府合同溢价或消失。
$PLTR 拥有极高的溢价，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)超过三位数。如果该公司能在特朗普政府领导下保持这种复合增长，这种估值会显得稍微合理一些。但我看到最大的风险因素是，人们没有将每四年一次的政府更迭（转向民主党）纳入考量。几年前，Palantir 与 $TSLA 和比特币一起是核心的“特朗普当选”交易标的。但如果政府更迭，而 CEO 又是民主党的高调批评者，那么特斯拉和 $PLTR 拥有的政府合同“内部人溢价”可能会消失。
英文原文
$PLTR has extreme premiums with more than triple digit forward p/e. It would make a little bit more sense if they can keep compounding like that under a Trump administration. But the biggest risk factor I see that people aren't factoring in is administration shift to Democrats in 4 year cycles. Palantir was the core "Trump Election" trade few years back alongside $TSLA and Bitcoin. But if the administration shifts with the CEO being an outspoken critic of democrats, then that "insider premium" for gov contracts that Tesla and $PLTR have might disappear.
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约会应用具备网络效应，代码易复制但用户粘性难替代。
@chartdummie 像 $BMBL 和 $MTCH (Tinder) 这样的约会应用还不错。它们也都具备网络效应。人们可以在一天内用 vibe coding 风格编写出类似应用，但这并不意味着每个人都会去使用它。
英文原文
@chartdummie Dating apps like $BMBL and $MTCH (Tinder) are fine. They both have the network effect too. People can vibe code it in a day but that doesn't mean everyone will use it.
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指出 $CHGG 股价已暴跌超 99%。
@mr0market 你难道不知道 $CHGG 已经跌了 99% 以上吗？ https://t.co/ajLYCLUBNw
英文原文
@mr0market You do realize $CHGG already dropped 99%+? https://t.co/ajLYCLUBNw
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分析多个软件股认为AI无法真正颠覆网络效应驱动的平台，存在投资机会。
"AI正在颠覆软件，但实际上并非如此"这个投资组合。以下是我个人偏好的清单：$RDDT（149美元，年初至今-37.47%）：10/10$NFLX（84.61美元，6个月-30.85%）：9/10$NET（169.5美元，年初至今-13.55%）：10/10$SPOT（488美元，年初至今-15.2%）：9/10$SNAP（5.13美元，年初至今-38.1%）：10/10$DUOL（85.3美元，年初至今-60.92%）：6/10$PINS（17.5美元，年初至今-34%）：8/10$U（18.83美元，年初至今-59.3%）：8/10$FIG（28.93美元，年初至今-23.65%）：7/10Reddit - 10/10：你可以用Opus一天内vibe code一个Reddit，但主要问题是"网络效应"是你无法复制的。你可以问ChatGPT或Gemini一个问题，但主要用途是英雄联盟赛后讨论或人类话语——这些才是人们使用Reddit的原因。Netflix - 9/10：你上Netflix看《鱿鱼游戏》和其他内容。AI确实会帮助生成新的病毒式电影或电视节目，但你仍然会用Netflix或YouTube来看。人们仍然会观看授权动漫如《孤注一掷》或最新的《弥留之国的爱丽丝》剧集，而不是AI生成的内容。Cloudflare 10/10：我不认为AI能颠覆Cloudflare。Spotify - 9/10：最大的颠覆是Apple Music不收取服务费（这可能不会发生）。虽然有AI生成音乐，但就像YouTube一样，你用Spotify来听它。你可以尝试vibe code Spotify，但很大一部分是版权。AI生成的音乐不会取代Martin Garrix的EDM配乐（其中很大一部分是知道这首歌→去音乐节现场）或Taylor Swift的《Love Story》类型歌曲（你也会去现场看演唱会）。Snapchat - 10/10：同样是网络效应——它之所以有效只是因为每个人都同意使用它。它的问题是变现和过多的股票薪酬，不是AI颠覆。Duolingo - 6/10：我长期以来一直嘲笑Duolingo，但在跌到86美元后估值再次合理。是的，你可以通过Gemini学习语言，我自己也是这么做的。但大多数人仍然会把Duolingo作为一种激励工具。还有品牌认知度+便利性，这是最大的因素。人们可以在应用商店vibe code自己的Duolingo，但这不意味着人们会使用它或自己出去编码。Pinterest - 8/10：这是人类相关的品味。人们担心代理商务和生成式AI（Midjourney、DALL-E）会颠覆这种搜索，但人们其实不太用Pinterest做这种搜索。Unity - 8/10：每个人都用Unity做4D AI和World Models。人们担心生成式游戏相关的事情，但它仍然被广泛使用。他们的主要问题是AI使用的变现，不是颠覆。Figma - 7/10：AI现在主要用于将你的Figma文件移植到html/css/js。并不完全是颠覆对软件的需求。也许只是我，但设计和创意有某种人类元素是AI还无法模仿的——用于线框图（它擅长复制和做相对新的东西）。我高度怀疑AI能否一键生成Tempo或$XYZ网站。对于$V和Mastercard等其他公司，我确实相信手续费和百分比费用可能会终结，因为AI通过$CRCL稳定币处理直接支付路由。对于$CHGG等其他公司，它们确实已经被颠覆出局了。对于$RDDT和$NFLX等其他公司，每个人仍然会去那里讨论或看《鱿鱼游戏》，AI没有实质性颠覆效应。由于恐惧已经笼罩软件市场，抄底将很难，但许多公司，如Reddit，提供了绝佳机会。
英文原文
The "AI is Disrupting Software but Not Really" Bucket. Here's my personal list of favorites: $RDDT ($149, -37.47% YTD): 10/10 $NFLX ($84.61, -30.85% 6M): 9/10 $NET ($169.5, -13.55% YTD): 10/10 $SPOT ($488, -15.2% YTD): 9/10 $SNAP ($5.13, -38.1% YTD): 10/10 $DUOL ($85.3, -60.92% YTD): 6/10 $PINS ($17.5, -34% YTD): 8/10 $U ($18.83, -59.3% YTD): 8/10 $FIG ($28.93, -23.65% YTD): 7/10 Reddit - 10/10: You can vibe code Reddit in a day with Opus. But the main thing is "Network Effect" that you can't replicate. You can ask ChatGPT or Gemini a question, but main thing is the type league of legends post-match discussions or human discourse that people use reddit for. Netflix - 9/10: You go to Netflix for squid games and others. I'm sure AI will help with generation of new viral movies or TV shows, but you will still use Netflix or Youtube to watch it. People are still going to watch licensed Anime like Solo Leveling or the newest Alice in Borderlands show over AI generated contnet. Cloudflare 10/10: I don't see how AI would disrupt Cloudflare. Spotify - 9/10: Biggest disruption is Apple Music just not charging for services (which likely won't happen). There's AI generating music but like Youtube, you use Spotify to listen to it. You can try and vibe code Spotify sure, but a large part of it is licenses. AI generated music will not go out and replace Martin Garrix EDM soundtracks (where a large part of it is knowing the song -> going to music festivals in person) or Taylor Swift Love Story type songs (where you also go in person to see concerts). Snapchat - 10/10: Same with network effect only reason it works is because everyone agrees to use it. Their issue is with monetization and excessive stock based compensation, not AI disruption. Duolingo - 6/10: I made fun of Duolingo for the longest time, but it's decent valuation again after the selloff to $86. Yes you can learn languages through Gemini, which I do myself. But most people are still going use Duolingo as more of a motivational tool. There's name recognition too + convenience, which is the biggest factor. People can vibe code their own Duolingo but that doesn't mean people will use it on the app store or go out and code it themselves. Pinterest - 8/10 - It's human related taste. People are fearing agentic commerce and generative AI (Midjourney, DALL-E) will disrupt this type of search, which people don't really use Pinterest for. Unity - 8/10: Everyone uses Unity for 4D AI and World Models. People fear stuff regarding generative gaming, but it's still widely used. Their main issue is monetization from AI usage, not disruption. Figma - 7/10: AI is right now is mainly for porting your figma files over to html/css/js. Not exactly for disrupting the need for the software. Maybe it's just me but there's a certain human element to design and creativity that AI can't emulate yet for wireframing (it's good at copying and doing something relatively new). I highly doubt AI can one-shot Tempo or $XYZ websites. For others like $V and Mastercard, I do genuinely believe interchange and % based fees maybe end as AI handles direct payment routing through $CRCL stablecoins. And for others like $CHGG, they have legitimately been disrupted out of existence already. For the rest like $RDDT and $NFLX, everyone will still go there for discussions or to watch Squid Games, and AI has no material disruptive effect. Going to be hard to time the bottom as fear has overtaken the market with software, but many, such as Reddit present a great opportunity.
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建议关注被错杀且未恢复的AI无关软件股。
@NabQ321 我一直在净买入“被AI颠覆了X公司但实际上毫无影响”这一类别的股票。 像 $RDDT 这样的股票以及其他软件股已经下跌了40%以上，且尚未恢复。 所以，也许去关注一下这些股票是个好主意。
英文原文
@NabQ321 I’ve been a net buyer in the “AI disrupted X company but in reality it has no effect” bucket. Things like $RDDT have been sold off 40%+ along with other software names and haven’t recovered yet. So maybe it’s a good idea to take a look at those.
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IQE债务风险真实，台湾出售案成败决定稀释或重估。
不，债务风险是真实存在的。其当前总债务约为4500万英镑。此外，如果 $IQE 将其外延晶圆(epiwafer)产能转向AI交易的光收发器(transceivers)，重构硬件将需要更多资本。因此，台湾出售案至关重要，如果交易失败，可能会通过进一步稀释股东权益来覆盖短期成本。但如果交易成功且他们能成功转型，估值可能会像Landmark一样重估。
英文原文
No, the risks around the debt are real. Their current gross debt is ~£45M. Plus, if $IQE repurposes their epiwafer capacity towards transceivers for the AI trade, it will take even more capital to refactor the hardware. Hence why the Taiwan sale is critical, if it falls through, there will likely be more dilution to shareholders to cover short term costs. But if it goes through and they're able to repurpose successfully, could be rerated like landmark.
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深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
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Landmark是纯正外延晶圆代工标的，无传统业务拖累且资产负债表优于IQE。
@01010001x Landmark 无疑是市值 $3.85B 的 epiwafer foundry（外延晶圆代工）最纯正的标的。虽然其产能低于竞争对手 $IQE（约 $2.00B），但它没有传统业务拖累，且资产负债表更优。
英文原文
@01010001x Landmark is the most pure play inp epiwafer foundry at $3.85B MC for sure. It has lower capacity than their ~$200M $IQE competitor but has no legacy drag exposure and a better balance sheet.
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警告$KORU三倍杠杆在剧烈回调中的风险。
@iverson3 $KORU 的玩法……直到它失效为止。如果市场出现剧烈回调，3倍杠杆带来的损失将不堪设想。
英文原文
@iverson3 $KORU works… until it doesn’t. 3x leverage on a steep correction if there is one won’t look pretty.
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反驳“太晚”论，指出牛市下运营利润将远超市值。
@itssaltyyyy > $5200亿市值 > 牛市情景下，到2027年运营利润达$5100亿 > “太晚了”
英文原文
@itssaltyyyy > $520B MC > ends up making $510B operating profit by 2027 in a bull case > “it’s too late”
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杠杆工具增加SK海力士和三星波动，但当前价位可安心持有。
是的，由于新的10倍永续合约(perpetual contracts)、即将推出的2倍杠杆ETF(leveraged ETFs)及其他工具，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)确实存在因杠杆带来的巨大波动潜力。尤其是$EWY和韩国KOSPI指数(SK Index)基本上就是这两家公司的代表。但就个人而言，在当前价位上，这是可以让人安心睡觉的。
英文原文
Yes there’s a lot of potential volatility due to leverage on SK Hynix and Samsung with the new 10x perps, new 2x leveraged ETFs coming out soon, and other instruments. ESP since $EWY and SK Index are basically a representation of those two companies. But personally, it’s something that can be slept easy on at these levels.
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对比FLKR与EWY，前者费率低，后者可交易期权。
@SlumberMD $FLKR 在持有份额方面表现更佳，因为其费用率更低。$EWY 可以进行期权交易。
英文原文
@SlumberMD $FLKR is better for shares due to lower expense ratios. $EWY has option trading.
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韩国指数由三星和SK海力士驱动，盈利强劲，类比台积电具长期做多价值。
$KOSPI 和 $EWY，人们不应该试图对韩国指数进行技术分析(TA)或将其与白银等资产进行比较。 韩国指数正处于价格发现阶段，主要由两只股票带动： 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和麦格理(Macquarie)对其营业利润的预测如下： 三星(Samsung) 2026年：约1820亿 - 2108亿美元 2027年：约2351亿 - 3337亿美元 SK海力士(SK Hynix)： 2026年：约1329亿 - 1905亿美元 2027年：约1670亿 - 3128亿美元 如果SK海力士的估值为5000亿美元，而其2026和2027财年的预测营业利润为5100亿美元。 这看起来简直荒谬。（右侧为麦格理的多头情景预测） 我可能会更倾向于参考摩根士丹利的预测（这更加务实），但核心观点依然成立：这些公司的盈利能力极强。 如果三星未来交易价格达到2.5万亿美元（目前为1万亿美元），我也不会感到惊讶。 它给人的感觉就像两年前的 $TSM 一样，看起来是一个显而易见的做多机会。
英文原文
$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea’s index is something people shouldn’t try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver. SK index is in price discovery mode as it’s carried by two stocks: Whose operating profit projections from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are: Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B - ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B - ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B - ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B - ~$312.8B USD If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B. It just looks silly. (From Macquarie's bull case projections on the right) I’d probably go off Morgan Stanley projections instead (which is a lot more grounded) but the point still stands that these companies are just so profitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now). It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.
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推荐$XLU作为电网现代化受益标的，提示注意隐含波动率定价。
$XLU 是我看好能源/电网现代化、降息预期以及推理/训练大规模用量的首选多头标的。进入这些交易无需匆忙，公用事业和电力板块通常像恐龙一样移动缓慢。但如果你进行大幅跳跃式建仓，请确保隐含波动率(IV)定价在 14-16% 的正确区间，而非虚高的行权价。
英文原文
$XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training. There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.
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EWJ比EWY更分散，建议利用ETF做方向性杠杆而非博弈波动率。
$EWJ 相比 $EWY 的分散度更高，后者基本上只有三星和 SK 海力士两家公司。我认为日本和台湾 ETF 的隐含波动率(IV)定价合理。如果你要介入这些标的，应该更多是为了方向性的杠杆，而不是 Vega 扩张，因为内存超级周期带来的 Vega 扩张是独一无二的。
英文原文
$EWJ is more diversified compared to $EWY which is basically two companies in Samsung and SK Hynix. I think IV is reasonably priced for Japan and Taiwan ETFs. If you’re entering those it should be more for leverage on direction rather than Vega expansion, which was one of a kind from the memory supercycle
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LITE 深度绑定 Google TPU，ASIC 放量预期在 2027-2028 年。
$LITE 与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目直接相关，约占物料清单(BOM)价值的 8-12%。其他超大规模云计算提供商的专用集成电路(ASIC)占比可能仅为低个位数百分比。Google 大幅上调了资本支出(Capex)预测数字。市场假设这将惠及 $LITE。我认为你不应该基于 60% 来自 ASIC 放量等任意数字进行建模。大部分光子学/ASIC 的放量预计发生在 2027 年末至 2028 年，市场目前只是在提前交易这一预期。我在股价再次翻倍前的研究论文中做过原始估值计算，最近没有更新。
英文原文
$LITE is directly tied to $GOOGL TPU programs and is ~8-12% of BOM value Other hyperscaler ASICs is likely low single digit %. Google hiked projected capex numbers a lot. And the assumption is that trickles down into $LITE. I don’t think you should model based on arbitrary numbers figures like 60% should be off asic ramp. Majority of photonics/asic ramp is expected to happen late 2027 into 2028, and markets are just frontrunning that now. I did the original valuation math in my thesis before it doubled again, haven’t done it recently.
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点评AEHR获AI量产订单及NVDA引发的市场波动。
我并没有交易它，但它的波动性确实很大。考虑到 $NVDA 引发了全面的抛售，你的入场时机把握得很好。至于 $AEHR，他们终于度过了 $POET 的研发阶段，今年开始获得超大规模云服务商/AI 公司的量产订单。所以想简单写一下关于它的分析。
英文原文
I haven't been trading it, but it's really volatile. You did time it well considering $NVDA caused a selloff across the board. As for, $AEHR they've finally gotten past that $POET R&D stage and hitting hyperscaler/AI company production orders this year. So just wanted to do a tiny write-up about it.
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解析$AEHR作为AI芯片热测试瓶颈解决者，正从研发转向量产，受益于巨头资本开支周期。
更简明的 $AEHR 概览 - 11 亿美元（无行话）。这是我的一个多头持仓： 在 AI 领域，散热是一个已知的瓶颈。 随着新一代 $NVDA 或 $AMD 类型的芯片发热量增加，如果一颗芯片熔毁，将是灾难性的。 因此科技巨头 -> 对每一颗芯片进行热应力测试，以查看其是否会在现场过早失效。 $AEHR 出售用于测试这些芯片的机器。 去年，他们类似于 $POET（处于预认证/测试阶段） -> 但现在他们已经通过了认证。 我们正看到从研发到大规模生产的拐点： 今天： -> $AEHR 获得 1400 万美元的芯片老化系统（wafer level）订单，以帮助扩大芯片生产。 但这台 1400 万美元的机器每周只能处理有限数量的晶圆。 -> 随着该 AI 客户扩大规模，他们将物理上耗尽热测试吞吐量。 因此，如果他们喜欢 $AEHR，就会购买更多，从而推动收入增长。 他们还有一个独立的产品线（Sonoma），用于测试封装后的芯片。 超大规模云服务商一直在订购此产品，因此有两个不同的测试阶段，两条收入来源。 管理层指引 2026 年下半年新增订单为 6000 万至 8000 万美元（这是巨大的增长）。 你可以参考 $TER（510 亿美元）或爱德万测试（约 1250 亿美元）来看看这类公司能有多大。 他们还在其他数据中心层进行测试： - 他们正在与 NAND Flash 内存供应商合作 - 硅光子学 我尽量去除了大部分技术行话，以便大多数人更容易理解，但这确实是一个微妙/技术性的领域。 $AEHR 具有潜力，因为它在多年的研发和认证后，现在开始实现真实规模的量产。 我们正处于一个巨大的资本支出周期中（想想 $ASML 的周期，人们为建设订购大量机器）。
英文原文
A simpler overview of $AEHR - $1.1B (without the jargon). One of my long positions: With AI, thermal is a known bottleneck. With new gen $NVDA or $AMD type chips that gets hot, if one chip melts down, it's a disaster. So tech giants -> every single chip stress tested with heat to see if it fails prematurely in the field. $AEHR sells the machines that does the testing of these chips. Last year, they were like $POET (pre-qualification/test phase) -> but now they've passed. We're seeing that inflection from R&D to mass production: Today: -> $14M order for $AEHR burn-in systems to help scale chip production (wafer level) But that $14M machine order can only handle a finite number of wafers per week. -> As this AI customer scales up, they will physically run out of thermal testing throughput. so they buy more if they like $AEHR, and this ramps up revenue. They also have a separate product line (Sonoma) for testing chips after they're packaged. Hyperscalers have been ordering this, so two different testing stages, two revenue streams. Management guided for a massive second half 2026 $60M to $80M in new bookings (which is big growth). You can look at $TER ($51B) or Advantest (~$125B) to see the ceiling of how big a lot of these companies can get. They also do testing across other data center layers too: - So they're working with NAND Flash memory suppliers - Silicon photonics Tried to strip out as much technical jargon as possible so it's more understandable to majority, but it's a very nuanced/technical field. $AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification. And we're sitting in an enormous capex cycle (think $ASML cycles, where people order a lot of machines for the buildout).
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分析 $LITE 作为光子供应链龙头的反转潜力，同时提示债务与稀释风险。
并非建议投资，我已多次强调其净债务高企，且因稀释效应而具有内在风险，此处仅分享我认为其有趣的原因。除此之外，它是全球上游光子供应链中最大的外延晶圆(epiwafer)晶圆厂之一，也是 $LITE 的知名供应商。另一家领导者是台湾的 Landmark，其市值为 38.5 亿美元，可作为基准，因此我认为存在反转潜力。
英文原文
Not telling people to invest, I’ve already maintained multiple times its net debt and inherently risky due to dilution and just sharing why I found it interesting. That aside, they’re one of the largest epiwafer fabs in the world for upstream photonic supply chains and a known $LITE supplier. The other leader is Landmark over in Taiwan and it’s sitting at $3.85B as a benchmark, so I do think there’s a turnaround potential.
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警告某标的因债务和稀释存在风险，并更正代工定义。
这不是个好主意，由于净债务和潜在的稀释效应，其本身具有风险。 我只是分享我的思考过程，但每个人的风险承受能力不同，所以请务必自行研究。 另外更正一下：最大的外包*外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂。像 $COHR 这样的公司是垂直整合的。
英文原文
Not a good idea, it’s inherently risky due to net debt and potential dilution. I’m just sharing my thought process but risk-tolerance is different for everyone so make sure to do your own research Also a correction: largest outsourced* epiwafer foundry. Companies like $COHR are vertically integrated
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IQE 重组后有望对标 Landmark 实现大幅重估，是超大规模云厂商光子学供应链的二元高赔率标的。
如果要在 $AXTI 之后只选一只 10 倍股，那可能是 $IQE。 我的思考过程简版： - 最接近的对比是台湾的 LandMark Optoelectronics（用于外延片 epiwafers）。其估值约为 38 亿美元。 - $LITE <- $IQE 是已知关系，且 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 和超大规模云厂商 ASIC 的已知供应商。 - IQE 是全球最大的外延片晶圆代工企业，估值仅为 1.5 亿美元。 - 为什么 Landmark 估值 38 亿而 IQE 仅 1.5 亿？$IQE 有 2350 万英镑净债务和 1800 万英镑可转换票据。以及传统智能手机射频业务的拖累。 - Landmark 是磷化铟 (InP) 外延片的纯概念股，其估值展示了 IQE 的潜力。 - 所以当你看净债务 + 可转换票据……4100 万英镑基本上就是零钱？尤其对于超大规模云厂商供应链而言。 - Landmark 有 27 到 30 台 MOCVD 反应器。IQE 运营超过 100 台。 - $IQE 需要做的就是重组（他们正在做），出售拖累业务将消除债务。并专注于光子学供应链，其产能远超台湾同行，这将证明重新估值的合理性。 基本上，如果你看一个规模更小（但更纯粹的 $IQE 版本 Landmark），其估值接近 IQE 当前业务的 25 倍。 downside 是你会被稀释到虚无，但 4100 万英镑对超大规模云厂商来说感觉没什么？ 所以这是一个基于 $IQE 在超大规模云厂商光子学供应链中的重要性，因重新估值而产生的二元非对称性“登月”选择。
英文原文
If I had to pick a 10x return-stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE. My thought process TLDR: - Closest comparison would be Taiwan's LandMark Optoelectronics for epiwafers. It's valued at ~$3.8B. - $LITE <- $IQE is a known relation, and $LITE is a known supplier to $GOOGL TPUs and hyperscaler ASICs. - IQE is the largest epiwafer foundry in the world, valued at $150M. - Why is Landmark valued at $3.8B vs. $150M? $IQE has -£23.5 million net debt and £18M convertible notes. And drag from legacy smartphone RF. - Landmark is pure play for InP epiwafer and just an idea to what it could be valued at. - So when you go look at net debt + convertibles... £41M is basically pennies? Especially to a hyperscaler supply chain. - Landmark has 27 to 30 MOCVD reactors. IQE operates over 100. - All $IQE needs to do is restructure (which they're doing now), selling off their drag will remove debt. And focusing on the photonics supply chain with much more capacity than their Taiwan counterparty would warrant rerating. Basically, if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business. The downside is you get diluted to oblivion, but the £41M feels kinda like nothing to hyperscalers? So this is a binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics.
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认为$EWY隐含波动率被低估，因存储超级周期将带来巨大波动。
我真心认为做市商错误定价了 $EWY 2028 年的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)，因为它本质上是对三星/SK海力士的看涨期权。 并非每天都能看到一个“非波动性”指数在 45% 的 IV 下每日波动 7%。 相比之下，它比以 55% IV 交易的 $MRVL 波动性大得多（仅比较两者的图表）。 像 Jane Street 这样的做市商可能正在定价均值回归（回到无聊的 5-10 年停滞期），但由于存储超级周期，这种情况永远不会发生。 或者是 ETF 再平衡，这通过传递结构无意中导致了对 SK 海力士和三星的更多集中。 大多数 2 年后的虚值(OTM)行权价在短短 2 个月内就变成了实值(ITM)。 随着 10 倍杠杆的 SK 海力士/三星或 2 倍杠杆 ETF 起飞，还有大量未实现的未来波动性。 如果 IV 保持低位，你可以让看涨期权以低溢价轻松突破行权价。
英文原文
I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day. For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs) Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle. Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.
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IQE对西方供应链关键，结果呈二元性。
@CigCapital 我确实提到过 $IQE，它可能成为大牛股，也可能因稀释而成为灾难。这看起来像是一个二元事件，但他们对西方供应链和 $LITE 至关重要。
英文原文
@CigCapital I did mention $IQE which could be a potential banger or dilution disaster. Seems like a binary event here but they were pretty critical to Western supply chains and $LITE.
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IQE关联巨头但负债高，属高风险博弈，波动性预计剧烈。
$IQE 是一家市值1.5亿美元的备受关注的公司，我发现了它与 $LITE（Lumentum）和 GOOGL（谷歌）之间的联系！不过，其资产负债表相当糟糕，处于净债务（Net Debt）状态。尽管如此，这更像是一场“孤注一掷的赌局”，即它在收发器(Transceiver)或超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)供应链中的重要性，是否能抵消其糟糕的财务状况。顺便说一句，这只股票的波动性（Volatility）看起来会和 $AXTI 一样剧烈！
英文原文
$IQE は時価総額1億5,000万ドルの注目銘柄で, $LITE （ルメンタム）や GOOGL（グーグル）との繋がりを見つけました！ただ、バランスシートはかなりボロボロで実質有利子負債（ネットデット）の状態です。とはいえ、トランシーバーやハイパースケーラーのサプライチェーンにおける重要性が、財務状況の悪さを上回るかどうかの「一か八かの賭け」といったところですね。 それはそうと、この銘柄も $AXTI と同じくらいボラティリティ（価格変動）が激しくなりそうです！
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询问何时卖出AXTI股票
@demarscrypto 谢谢 demarscrypto，如果你改变了对 $AXTI 的看法，请告诉我，这样我就知道何时卖出。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Thank you demarscrypto, let me know if you change your mind on $AXTI so I know when to sell.
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建议避开高溢价期权，因做市商因杠杆风险提高$XLU虚值期权权利金。
@bennybigbull 是的，可能最好避开定价过高的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)。做市商(Market Makers)可能只是不想成为 $XLU 虚值(Out-of-the-Money)期权的对手方，因为你可以获得约72倍的标的名义杠杆，所以他们大幅提高了期权权利金(Premiums)。
英文原文
@bennybigbull Yeah probably stay away from overpriced IV. MMs probably just don’t want be the counterparty on $XLU OTM since you can leverage 72x notational or so, so they’re raising premiums a lot.
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看好$XLU因AI电力需求及降息带来的重估机会。
人们可能没意识到，在全球移动最缓慢的板块之一上，这一波行情有多大。 $XLU 一周涨幅 2.56%。 尤其是隐含波动率(IV)仅为 14% 的情况下。 自 2000 年以来，无聊的电力/电网板块（不含股息）的历史总回报率为 79.73%。 期权价值轻松实现两位数甚至三位数的增长。 话虽如此，如果 IV 偏高（例如超过 17.5%），建议避开。 我的论点（Thesis）是：由于降息、AI 推理（Inference）使用以及电网/电力现代化，这是全球最无聊板块的千载难逢的重估机会。 希望这是我论点开始兑现的开端。
英文原文
Don’t think people realize how big this move on one of the Slowest. Moving. Sectors. In the world is. 2.56% in a week on $XLU. Especially if IV is 14%. All time return since year 2000 is 79.73% for the boring power/grid sector (not including dividends). Option values are easily up double digits or triple digits. That being said if IV is elevated (eg. above 17.5%) probably stay away. My thesis was this was the once in a lifetime rerating on the most boring sector in the world due to rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization. Hopefully this is the start my thesis playing out.
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赞同IQE被市场忽视的观点
@yianisz 写得很好！读起来很有趣。我同意 $IQE 在很大程度上仍被市场忽视的观点。
英文原文
@yianisz Great writeup! Was a fun read. Agreed on the point $IQE is largely undiscovered.
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回顾对 $CRCL 在 54 美元时的看好观点，今日该股大涨 20%。
我喜欢回顾历史，看看评论区经得住时间考验的程度。 $CRCL 今天上涨 20%。https://t.co/E47K80CRG4 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 我在 $54 美元时非常、非常喜欢 $CRCL。 估值已完全重置回 120 亿美元市值。 当价格在 150-200 美元时，大家都在抢购，但在 54 美元时，这里却门可罗雀。美元稳定币(USDC)供应量仍超过 700 亿美元，我预计稳定币的使用将继续增长。https://t.co/R2Habycf7d
英文原文
I love going back in history to see how well the comment section ages. $CRCL up 20% today. https://t.co/E47K80CRG4
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分析某以色列公司财务数据，认为其被严重低估。
@JohnPenisini 是的，我仔细研究过了。看起来被严重低估。 总资产1.34亿美元，市值1.54亿美元，60%利润率下的指引为7600万美元，负债-2970万美元。 不知道为什么市场不喜欢像 $ETOR 或 $VLN 这样的以色列公司。
英文原文
@JohnPenisini Yep I went through it. Looks deeply discounted. Total assets $134m, MC is $154m, $76m guidance off 60% margins, -$29.7m liabilities. Idk why markets dislike Israeli companies like $ETOR or $VLN