个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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认为当前处于周期早期，$SIMO 虽已大涨但仍是优质长线标的。
@LAMINAR27174405 不，但这是一个很好的长线标的。这正处于周期( Cycle )的非常早期阶段，$SIMO 已经大幅上涨了不少。
英文原文
@LAMINAR27174405 Nope but great long. This one is the very start of the cycle, $SIMO has already rallied quite a bit.
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研究PSTG后不看好其QLC闪存业务，明天将发帖。
@Ren_aramb 我今天早些时候其实正在深入研究 $PSTG。用于存储的 QLC 闪存(QLC Flash) 非常有趣，但（我）不看好。我明天还是会发帖，只是好奇大家有什么想法。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb I was actually doing more research into $PSTG earlier today. QLC Flash for storage is very interesting, but nope. I'll post tomorrow anyway, was just curious what ideas people had.
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AI需求致SSD囤货潮，$SNDK营收预期或翻三倍但股价未动
现在有一个非常滑稽的硬件囤货周期，比如 $SNDK 的固态硬盘(SSD)。大家都在买这个产品，但没人买它的股票（股价完全没动）。分析师此前预测没有增长，但来自人工智能(AI)需求的囤货可能会让营收预期翻三倍。想知道有人能猜到吗？
英文原文
There's a hilarious hardware hoarding cycle right now like $SNDK SSDs. Everyone is buying this, but not the stock (hasn't moved at all). Analysts were projecting no growth, but hoarding from AI demand likely triples revenue estimates. Wondering if anyone can guess?
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指出Hubspot免费工具对Palantir商业模式的颠覆性影响。
@platochi 确实，我此前未充分考虑到 Hubspot 的免费博客生成器对 $PLTR 商业模式造成的巨大颠覆性影响。https://t.co/TZPr82RRss
英文原文
@platochi True, I didn’t consider how much Hubspot’s free blog maker is very disruptive to $PLTR business model. https://t.co/TZPr82RRss
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讽刺 Burry 因 $PLTR 估值逻辑被驳斥而屏蔽批评者。
如果你用“Palantir 帮助美国政府利用黑盒 AI 程序入侵委内瑞拉”这一事实来回应 Burry 对 $PLTR 的做空论点，并且指出将其估值与小型企业营销工具 Hubspot 进行比较站不住脚，他会屏蔽你并隐藏你的评论！显然，当他的每月 385 美元占星术“头肩形态技术分析”和“Hubspot 与 Palantir 估值图表”在公开讨论中无法自圆其说时，这确实戳到了他的痛点。
英文原文
If you respond to Burry’s $PLTR short thesis with the fact that: Palantir helped the US government invade Venezuela with black box AI programs. And comparing the valuation to Hubspot, a small business marketing tool doesn’t hold up. He will block you and hide your comment! Clearly hits a nerve when his $385/month subscription for astrology “head and shoulders TA” and “Hubspot vs. Palantir valuation charts” doesn’t hold up to public discussion.
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英伟达市值达4.4万亿美元，获应得尊重。
@longinvest32 $NVDA 已经是一家市值 4.4 万亿美元的公司。我认为英伟达(Nvidia)正得到它应得的尊重！
英文原文
@longinvest32 $NVDA is already a $4.4T company. I think Nvidia is getting the respect it deserves!
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建议定投$EWY以布局存储周期，并澄清期权策略不适合所有人。
@TalentActivity 是的，定投(DCA) $EWY 股票似乎是获取三星/海力士敞口并参与存储超级周期的绝佳想法。这条帖子只是在讨论2028年的跳跃以及由定价不足的波动率带来的隐含波动率(Vega)扩张，期权并不适合所有人。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Yeah DCA $EWY shares seem like a great idea to get exposure to Samsung/Sk Hynix and the memory supercycle. This post was just discussing 2028 leaps and vega expansion from underpriced volatility, options are not the best way to go for everyone.
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利用$EWY期权定价错误，做多看涨期权以捕捉存储超级周期带来的维加扩张。
我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利，并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型(Black-Scholes models)。 $EWY 的看涨期权似乎定价错误。 这是贝莱德(Blackrock)的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 该指数每日波动2-5%以上，尽管隐含波动率(IV)定价像普通指数，但过去一年仍上涨了136.25%。 三星波动大。SK海力士波动也大（例如估算65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，约为32%的IV。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来很波动。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MMs)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价IV，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会均值回归。 但这种波动应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数中受益。 主要好处是你无法从 $KORU 获得的维加(Vega)扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国的国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别成分股SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本上占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动性定价，可能是因为基于5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从维加扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻性波动率估算过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的历史波动率较低。
英文原文
Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel: Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models. $EWY long options seem mispriced. This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix). The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV. Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est). But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV. I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile. As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean. But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV). Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index. And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU. You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term. TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile. They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data. Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
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微软拟弃用OpenAI模型，转而使用自研前沿模型。
Windows Central报道：“微软AI负责人Mustafa Suleyman向FT确认，公司正准备弃用OpenAI的模型。” 话虽如此，该报道措辞非常耸人听闻，我引用它时感到有些抱歉。 但这可能有一定依据，鉴于$MSFT正在构建自己的前沿模型(frontier models)并计划使用它们来替代OpenAI。
英文原文
Windows Central. "Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman just confirmed to FT that the firm is gearing up to ditch OpenAI's models." That being said the report is worded very sensationally and I feel bad for quoting it. But likely has some basis with $MSFT building their own frontier models and using them instead of OpenAI.
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看好NBIS长期价值，但短期面临融资稀释及宏观压力。
我两天前覆盖过 $NBIS。目前的动量交易焦点已转向内存/光子学(Photonics)，因为新云厂商(Neoclouds)在去年获得超大规模云厂商(Hyperscaler)订单后，目前处于静默建设阶段（每周鲜有新消息）。 尽管如此，我仍然看好 $NBIS，鉴于其年度经常性收入(ARR)达到80亿美元，且Clickhouse与Avride的加总估值(Sum of Parts)支撑有力（Clickhouse估值达150亿美元；例如若以400亿美元估值融资，其28%的股权价值为112亿美元，几乎相当于其当前市值的一半），我对Q4财报给出的牛市目标价为400美元。 不过，由于超额配售选择权(ATM)抛压、为能源公司(ER)3GW管道融资可能带来的稀释、宏观因素以及建设期间的资本支出(Capex)支出，短期内存在较大压力。
英文原文
I covered $NBIS 2 days ago. The momentum trade is now memory/photonics since neoclouds are in the silent buildout phase (with little new news weekly) after getting hyperscaler deals last year. That being said I still like $NBIS, $400 bull case PT Q4 earnings given they hit $8B ARR, Clickhouse + Avride carries sum of parts (Clickhouse hit $15B valuation, Eg if they raise at $40B that 28% equity is 11.2B, almost half their current valuation). That being said there’s a lot of short term pressure from ATM overhangs + possible dilution as they raise for the 3GW pipeline from ER, macro (largely), and capex spend during the buildout.
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批评法案将基础设施让给银行，警告其将扼杀加密创新及COIN前景。
《Clarity Act》（清晰法案）简直是对整个加密货币行业的毒丸核弹，将所有基础设施拱手让给银行。禁止稳定币使用第三方收益，使得银行可以维持其0.01%的支票账户利率。要求接触资金流必须拥有银行牌照或IDI（存款机构）资格，这对你们风投组合中的大多数公司来说都是有效的核打击。继续坚持斗争，政府政策显然在确保美元作为所有加密货币的底层货币，这一点我们可以认同。但同时不要允许银行加入那些会摧毁加密货币和 $COIN 长期创新的条款。
英文原文
The Clarity Act is just a poison pill nuke on the entire crypto industry, giving all the rails over to banks. Banning 3rd party yields for stablecoins allows banks to just keep their .01% interest rate checking. Then having banking licenses or IDI requirements to even touch flow of funds is an effective nuke on majority of your venture portfolio companies. Keep up the good fight, Gov policy is obviously making sure Dollar is bottom line currency for all crypto that is fine to align on. But at the same time don’t let banks throw in provisions that nukes the long term innovation for crypto and $COIN.
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七巨头盈利强劲支撑科技股，但加密市场低迷警示短期流动性风险。
我认为“七巨头”(Mag7)的盈利过于强劲，不足以引发全面修正。$META 指引营收增长约 30%。$GOOGL 庞大的 1800 亿美元资本支出由其 2025 年超 1320 亿美元的营业利润资助。这些资金流入 AI、存储和半导体领域，为其提供了底部支撑（例如，存储占 AI 集群物料清单(BOM)的很大比例）。即使是其他板块的中盘股如 $RDDT，在 35% 的净利率转化为净利润后，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)估值也接近 26-30 倍，营收同比增长 70% 且远期增长超 50%。增长目前看来仍可持续，且软件等其他板块大幅折价。但比特币/以太坊尚未恢复通常是短期流动性问题的最佳“煤矿金丝雀”(canary in the coal mine)。我预计中期选举前会出现更广泛的复苏。
英文原文
IMO Mag7 earnings are too strong for a full-blown correction. $META projecting guided ~30% revenue growth. $GOOGL's enormous $180B capex spend is funded by it's $132B+ operating income from 2025. All those funds trickle down into AI, memory, semis and puts a floor on them (eg. memory is a huge percentage of BOM for AI clusters). Even mid cap in other segments like $RDDT, is close to ~26-30 forward P/E estimates after 35% of revenue as net income -> 70% Y/Y revenue growth and 50%+ forward. Growth still looks sustainable right now, and other segments like software are heavily discounted. But the fact Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues. I'd expect a broader recovery going forward to midterms.
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推荐$LASR作为定向能激光领域最佳标的
@metapata 如果人们有生之年想看到这一点，$LASR 是对定向能激光(Directed Energy Lasers) 暴露度最好的标的之一 https://t.co/eNPepoBrk7
英文原文
@metapata If people ever want to see this in their lifetime, $LASR has one of the best exposure to energy directed lasers https://t.co/eNPepoBrk7
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分享$LASR大涨30%+，看好其定向能激光技术在国防及机器人领域的应用潜力。
$LASR 自上个月我提及以来已上涨近 30%+。显然，市场（和男人们）真的很喜欢那种能像拦截高超音速导弹一样击落任何目标的“死光”激光束。不难想象国防部将激光束安装在 $TSLA Optimus 机器人上并派它们去参战。如果美国正在从太空建造《星球大战》中的死星或《终结者》中的天网，这家公司就是那个核心。话虽如此，我目前并未持有该股票，但认为其他人可能会欣赏这类低调的公司。定向能激光（Directed Energy Lasers）确实非常未来感十足且酷炫。
英文原文
$LASR is up almost 30%+ now since I mentioned it last month. Apparently markets (and guys) really like death ray laser beams that shoot anything down like hypersonic missiles. It’s not too hard to imagine the DoD attaching laser beams to $TSLA Optimus Robots and sending them off to war. If America is building the Death Star in space from Star Wars or the Terminator from Skyney, this company would be it. That being said, don’t have any right now, but thought others might appreciate under the radar companies like this. Energy directed lasers are just so futuristic and cool.
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看好瓶颈ETF名单，认为该板块将跑赢大盘。
@rwang07 当然！瓶颈 ETF 是非官方自封的最酷 ETF。只等 @matthew_sigel 将其加入 VanEck。这是一个很扎实的名单，我认为该板块应该能跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@rwang07 Of course! The bottleneck ETF is the unofficial, self proclaimed coolest ETF. Just waiting for @matthew_sigel to add it to Vaneck. It’s a solid list, I think the group should outperform.
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LPTH是国防锗瓶颈，短期受板块拖累，长期受益于供应链转移。
$LPTH 主要是国防领域的锗瓶颈。它似乎更多是从中国供应链向美国黑钻（Black Diamond）过渡的长期受益者。 它在算法上与国防板块挂钩（近期因缺乏催化剂，从 $ONDS 到 $AVAV 均下跌）。如果美国入侵伊朗，该交易可能会再次火热。 不太可能看到像 $GOOGL 和 $AMZN 资本支出带来的半导体供应链瓶颈那样巨大的短期飙升。或者像 $AXTI 因光子学应用可能看到的瓶颈+涨价。 但从 Andruil、$NOC、$ONDS 等来看，长期应有增量收入。
英文原文
$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond. And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again. Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage. But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue
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看好$U回调机会，认为AI辅助而非取代$FIG设计。
自关注4D物理AI+世界模型(World Models)供应链以来，我一直在跟踪$U。 我认为他们并非纯粹的游戏公司。我认为-30%的跌幅是市场在提示我建立一些头寸。 同意。对于$FIG等公司，AI只是帮助将Figma设计转化为HTML/CSS/JS等代码，而非取代它。
英文原文
I’ve been following $U since looking at 4D physical AI + World Models supply chains. Don’t think they’re purely gaming related. I think the -30% drop is the world telling me to enter some positions. And agreed. With others like $FIG, AI just helps translate the Figma designs into stuff like HTML/CSS/JS rather than replacing it.
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质疑 $U 因微小业绩不及预期暴跌，批评市场对 AI 软件股的非理性恐慌。
很抱歉，但 $U 营收指引仅低于预期 0.8%……股价却暴跌 34%？ 看到市场因为一家公司做软件业务，就在 AI 领域非理性恐慌，这很有趣。 https://t.co/WWsgjvyjYb
英文原文
I’m sorry but did $U just miss revenue guidance by -.8%… then drop 34%? It’s interesting to see markets irrationally panicking from AI if a company does software. https://t.co/WWsgjvyjYb
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Reddit 业绩超预期却暴跌，作者认为其网络效应难被 AI 颠覆，是错杀机会。
-41.96% 的暴跌发生在 $RDDT 上，尽管它全面超预期且同比增长 70%，净利率达 35%，这太疯狂了。 你无法通过“氛围编程(vibecode)”来复制 Reddit 的网络效应。你也无法用与 ChatGPT 对话来取代超级碗(Super Bowl)帖子中的人性元素。 这可能是我近期在“实际上未被 AI 颠覆”类别中看到的最佳机会。 但确实，算法(algos)在疯狂做空。
英文原文
-41.96% crash on $RDDT for beating all estimates and growing 70% Y/Y off 35% net income margins is wild. You can’t vibecode the network effect Reddit has. And you can’t defeat the human element for Super Bowl threads by talking with ChatGPT. Probably best opportunity I’ve seen in awhile from the “not actually disrupted by AI” bucket. But yeah algos go brrr
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Reddit被错杀，高毛利轻资产模式使其极具投资价值。
我觉得 $RDDT 被错误地归入那些会被 AI 颠覆的“软件”类股票中。然后当 Reddit 状况良好时，它却跟着一起被抛售。我不认为你还能再看到一家中型市值公司实现 70% 的同比增长、91.5% 的毛利率以及约 27-30 倍的前瞻市盈率（Forward P/E）。而且他们的前瞻预估增长率约为 54%。他们 35% 的收入是净利润，这太离谱了。上个季度授权收入仅占总收入的 5%（几乎可以忽略不计），而且很可能只会增加。由于业务模式如此轻量化，收入增长直接转化为底线利润。在 141 美元价位，Reddit 就是一台印钞机。
英文原文
I feel like $RDDT gets added to the “software” names that gets disrupted by AI bucket by mistake. Then gets sold off together when Reddit is fine. Don’t think you’ll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y, 91.5% gross margin, ~27-30 forward p/e again. And they’re forward estimates are ~54% 35% of their revenue is net income, which is absurd. Licensing revenue was 5% of total revenue (almost nonfactor) last quarter and is likely to only go up. Revenue increases just hit the bottom line since it’s so lightweight. Reddit is a money printer at $141.
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VPG单月获百万美元订单，体量达此前总和三分之一，前景看涨。
@savelikameisha 谢谢，我在电话会议期间睡着了 lol。如果那是后续订单，$VPG 在 1 个月内获得 $1M 的订单实际上是非常看涨的。直到 10 月，他们的总订单流为 $3.6M，而基本上他们在 1 个月内就获得了其中 1/3 的体量。
英文原文
@savelikameisha Thanks, I fell asleep during the call lol. $1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that’s a follow-on order. Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until Oct and they got 1/3rd that volume in 1 month basically
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VPG获Optimus大额订单，看好其未来量产预期。
对于 $VPG 来说，这实际上非常有前景：2026年1月为100万美元，这是其后续订单（可能每个机器人500美元，即2000台）。根据你们的数据，直到10月他们的总订单流为360万美元，而单月就达到了其总量的1/3.6。鉴于我们现在知道 Optimus 将在今年晚些时候加速量产，我对未来的预测比过去的预测更感兴趣。
英文原文
For $VPG that’s actually really promising it’s $1m for January 2026 and that’s its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units) Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month from your numbers I’d be more curious about future projections rather than previous ones since now we know Optimus is ramping up later in the year.
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VPG财报数据次要，人形机器人订单及冻结风险才是关键。
@mholz315 是的，每股收益(ER)数据只是噪音，最重要的是$VPG CEO在电话会议中提到的关于那3780万美元人形机器人订单及潜在冻结的情况。
英文原文
@mholz315 Yeah the ER figures are just noise, most important thing is what the $VPG CEO mentions during the call regarding humanoid orders of that $37.8M and potential freezes.
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3700万超预期利好产能爬坡，待VPG会议澄清。
@mholz315 那个3700万美元的数字是多方面的，不仅仅是像Optimus这样的人形机器人。但由于这是一个强劲的超预期表现，这对产能爬坡(ramp)是一个积极的信号。 正如你提到的，现在最重要的是在$VPG电话会议上得到澄清。
英文原文
@mholz315 That $37M figure is multifaceted, it's not purely humanoids like Optimus. But it's a positive tell for ramp since it was a strong beat. As you mentioned, most important thing is clarification on the $VPG call now.
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$VPG财报营收超预期但EPS不及预期，人形机器人业务强劲增长被市场误读。
$VPG 发布了财报。简而言之： 营收：8060万美元 vs. 共识预期：约7810万美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(EPS)：0.07美元 vs. 共识预期：约0.20-0.21美元（不及预期） 毛利率：降至36.8%（去年同期为38.2%）——主要受外汇等一次性因素影响。 值得关注点： 人形机器人板块——其2025全年目标是从“战略增长计划”（机器人、先进传感器）中预订3000万美元订单。 实际：3780万美元——这一预测被大幅超越，超出近800万美元。 其他产品有很多噪音，市场主要应关注人形机器人的增长，看起来正在加速。 当然，这3780万美元的数据是多方面的。 没什么太惊人的，但简而言之： 传统业务（钢铁、称重等）：平均在增长 新业务（人形机器人）：正在快速增长 市场对此反应错误，因为$VPG未来最看涨的板块是人形机器人，且看起来正在加速。 除此之外，虽然不算爆发式增长，但对于强劲的机器人板块超预期是积极的，我将等待电话会议以获取与人形机器人相关的问题解答。
英文原文
$VPG reported earnings. TLDR: Revenue: $80.6 Million vs. Consensus: ~$78.1 Million (BEAT) Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs. Consensus: ~$0.20 - $0.21 (MISS) Gross Margin: Fell to 36.8% (down from 38.2% a year ago) - mainly one off like FX. What to look out for: Humanoid section - Their goal for the full year 2025 was to book $30 million in orders from "Strategic Growth Initiatives" (Robots, Advanced Sensors). Actual: $37.8 million - They crushed this projection by nearly $8 million. There’s a lot of noise from other products, main thing markets should be looking out for is humanoid growth, which looks to be ramping up. Of course that $37.8M number is multifaceted. Nothing too amazing but tldr: Legacy Business (Steel, weighing, etc.): Is growing on average New Business (humanoids): Is growing rapidly Markets are taking this the wrong way since the most bullish segment going forward for $VPG is humanoids, and it looks to be ramping up. That aside, not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat, will wait for conference call for humanoids related questions.
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HOOD财报后牛市或终结，短期震荡，需靠国际化或发币破局。
在财报发布后，我开始感觉 $HOOD 的牛市周期已经结束。 我不认为它会崩盘，但可能会在一段时间内保持区间震荡。 看到营收同比增速放缓至 27%，而在 800 亿美元市值下，远期 35 倍市盈率 (P/E) 的估值可能会膨胀至 45-50 倍以上。 这种增长部分是通过收购（例如收购 Bitstamp）买来的，而不是像过去那样通过新功能变现实现的。 长期来看它仍有潜力，但短期面临太多逆风。 唯一的慰藉是加密市场正在复苏。 或者 - 尽快进行国际股票扩张（$IBKR 正在大量吸纳资金流，因为投资者希望配置日本或韩国等其他国家的市场） - 在其新区块链上推出代币，以便像 BNB 和币安那样增加资产负债表规模。 以及其他一些想法等。 我不认为依赖预测市场 (prediction markets) 是正确的选择。为了短期利益这样做，形象 (optics) 肯定很差。
英文原文
Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings. I don’t think it’s going to crash, but likely stay rangebound for awhile. Seeing revenue deceleration to 27% y/y and forward 35 p/e estimates possibly balloon to 45-50+ at a $80B MC. That growth was partially bought as well (eg. Bitstamp acquisition) rather than new feature monetization like they’ve done in the past. Long term it still has potential but short term too many headwinds. The saving grace is crypto market recovering. Or - International stock expansion ASAP ( $IBKR is eating up a ton of inflows as investors want exposure to other countries like Japan or Korea) - Token launch on their new blockchain, so they can bump up balance sheets like BNB and Binance. With some other ideas, etc. Don’t think relying on prediction markets is the right choice to go down. It’s definitely a bad optics for short term gain.
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持有RDDT多头，因看涨期权IV过高而不看好期权交易。
@number1invest_ 我只是持有 $RDDT 的多头头寸。Reddit 看涨期权（Calls）的隐含波动率（Implied Volatility, IV）真的很高，所以我不太看好。
英文原文
@number1invest_ I’m just long $RDDT shares. IV is really high for Reddit calls so not a fan.
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认为LITE长期价值未完全定价，短期涨幅已大。
@mhayavkay 你意识到很多产能爬坡(ramp)发生在2028年吗？ 对于像 $LITE 这样占 Google TPU BOM 约 8-12% 的公司，我认为其长期价值尚未完全反映在股价中（短期已反映，过去一个月已上涨 70%）。https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
英文原文
@mhayavkay You do realize a lot of the ramp happens 2028 right? For stuff like $LITE which is ~8-12 of Google TPU BOM, I don't quite think it's priced in long term yet (short term yes, it rallied 70% 1M). https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
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反驳媒体观点，指出三星扩产HBM4不影响SanDisk的NAND业务。
如果非要简化来说。三星和 $SNDK 都是“农夫”。三星想种牛油果（HBM4）。他们把一半的农田用来生产更高价的牛油果。$SNDK 表示他们将继续种植玉米（NAND）。三星卖出更多牛油果并不会影响玉米市场。事实上，这甚至可能让玉米更贵。所以媒体说因为三星要做牛油果导致 SanDisk 下跌，这毫无道理。
英文原文
If I had to try and make it simpler. Samsung and $SNDK are both farmers. Samsung wants to farm avocados (HBM4). They dedicate half their farmland to make produce higher priced avocados. $SNDK says they're going to keep growing corn (NAND). Samsung selling more avocados does not affect the corn market. In fact it might even make it more expensive. So all the media saying Sandisk is dropping because Samsung wants to make avocados makes no sense.
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Reddit财报亮眼且具网络效应，优于面临逆风的HOOD/HIMS。
持有 $RDDT 第1天：+5.83%。 Reddit 正在快速增长，同比增长50%+（本季度同比增长70%），且净利润是其收入的1/3。 毛利率高达91%，这高得离谱。 令我惊讶的是，更多 $HOOD 或 $HIMS 的持有者在财报后看到收入减速或受到冲击，却没有进行调仓。 其他公司面临的是实际的结构性收入逆风，而 Reddit 只是来自 AI 颠覆的噪音。
英文原文
Day 1 of holding $RDDT: +5.83%. Reddit is growing rapidly 50%+ Y/Y (grew 70% Y/Y this quarter) and net income is 1/3rd their revenue. Gross margins are 91%, which is absurdly high. Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption. You have actual structural headwinds for revenue for other companies while Reddit is just noise from AI disruption.