个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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作者认为基本面重于图表，因预期营业利润超苹果而继续买入SK海力士。
我喜欢告诉那些画图表的人，股票更多关乎基本面和催化剂。例如，尽管 $SKHYNIX 在过去一年上涨了300%且市值达5000亿美元，我仍在买入，因为其营业利润（约1560亿美元）预计明年将超越 $AAPL（3.8万亿美元）。显然，超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的收入比内存（除非其成为结构性需求）更具持续性。但鉴于印钞规模之大，即使前一天上涨了10%，我也能自信地买入。
英文原文
I like to tell all the people who draw charts that stocks are more about fundamentals and catalysts. I'm still buying into SK Hynix for example even after the 300% 1Y rise at $500B because their operating income (~$156B) is projected to surpass $AAPL ($3.8T) next year. Obviously hyperscaler revenues are more persistent vs. memory (unless it becomes structural). But just given the sheer amount of money printing, can just be confident to buy even after a 10% increase the previous day.
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建议以低IV买入$XLU做多美国电网。
@Investmnt_Eagle 我依然这么认为！理想的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)应为14-16%，而不是你关注的那些升水期权所对应的~21-23% IV。重点是 $XLU 是对美国电力/电网未来两年的方向性做多（受益于低 IV）。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle I still think so! Ideal would be 14-16% IV not the elevated strikes you're looking at ~21-23% IV. Point was $XLU was a directional long on US power/grid over the next two years (that benefits from low IV).
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指出IBKR交易数据虽被夸大，但规模依然可观。
@Veeshalnarote12 @BlessedFrLife $IBKR 的交易数据略有夸大。但核心观点依然成立，即其规模相当可观。
英文原文
@Veeshalnarote12 @BlessedFrLife $IBKR inflates trades a bit. But point still stands that it's a decent amount though
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感谢关注，认为OpenClaw是$RPI的长期催化剂。
@bulldogcapital9 谢谢！看到关于 $RPI 的新闻报道真的很有趣。希望 OpenClaw 能成为一个良好的长期催化剂。https://t.co/rTgP8DNDZn
英文原文
@bulldogcapital9 Thanks! It's really fun to see the news coverage around $RPI. Hope OpenClaw serves as a good long term catalyst. https://t.co/rTgP8DNDZn
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质疑SNDK仓位风险，认为不确定性将助推反弹。
@ZeroKnowledger_ 他们的 $SNDK 仓位会被核平吗？完全不知道，但这只会为反弹行情火上浇油。
英文原文
@ZeroKnowledger_ They’re going to get their positions nuked on $SNDK? Zero clue, just adds fuel to the fire for the rally
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RPI逆势上涨，软件与网络安全板块表现疲软
@otium33 也许吧，但即使被媒体贴上“迷因股(meme stock)”标签的 $RPI 今天也上涨了 13.6%。 看起来软件和网络安全(cybersecurity)等其他主题表现不佳 https://t.co/wUISCQP55H
英文原文
@otium33 Maybe, but even the media branded “meme stock” $RPI is up 13.6% today. Seems like other themes like software and cybersecurity aren’t doing too well https://t.co/wUISCQP55H
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SK海力士估值极低且利润超苹果
@arstr9876 是的，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)约为4倍，市值达5000亿美元。SK海力士(SK Hynix)预计明年营业利润将达1600亿美元，这超过了苹果($AAPL，市值3.8万亿美元)的水平。
英文原文
@arstr9876 Yeah it’s forward p/e is like 4 at a $500b mc. sk hynix is projected to do $160B operating income next year, which is more than $AAPL ($3.8T company)
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驳斥媒体将$RPI误读为迷因股，重申其受AI需求驱动的实质基本面逻辑。
媒体将“迷因股(Meme Stock)”$RPI 的涨幅归为此类，该股本月已上涨 46.12% 并守住收益。硅谷人士都穿龙虾(Lobster)服装时，你是否曾思考过 OpenClaw 需求是否存在结构性变化？ 《每日电讯报》今天发布了一篇关于树莓派(Raspberry Pi, $RPI) 的新文章。虽然我很感激被称为“AI 极客(AI Nerd)”…… 但我不理解为什么他们共同试图将树莓派框架化为“迷因股(Meme stock)？” 整个论点(Thesis) 是围绕 OpenClaw 变体作为首选硬件带来的总可寻址市场(TAM) 扩张。 在财务方面，论点在于如果囤货持续，收入数字如何能从预期的“14% 增长”增加到“适度的 48-55%”。 我原始论点的直接引用是：这将是“反转的顺风(tailwind for a reversal)”，且“收入应受益于需求增加”。 这是逐字引用的。 我不理解像《金融时报》这样的媒体机构如何能从上述内容 -> 变成从未说过的虚假评论。 对于《金融时报》：他们插入了关于“可被框架化为对立面(big shorts)的大空头”的虚假评论。 对于《每日电讯报》：他们插入了诸如“对公司本身的喜爱而非财务表现或潜力”的虚假评论。 我不确定大型媒体机构为何不被要求更高的标准，却能随意捏造评论？ 再次强调，$AAPL Mac Mini 作为 AI 编排(AI orchestration)硬件的囤货不会对苹果收入（作为一家 3.7 万亿美元市值的公司）造成显著影响。 然而，这对像 $RPI 这样的公司是实质性的(material)。 这就是核心论点。 OpenClaw 和 AI 智能体/集群(AI agents/swarms) 驱动树莓派销量的增加（更重要的是，作为长期催化剂），这可能导致收入预测超预期(beat) + 重估(re-rating)。 多家机构包括添加捏造评论的框架极其不真诚(disingenuous)。 这是一个基本的、高度具体的论点，但多家媒体机构只是决定捏造完全随机的内容，将树莓派描绘为迷因股。
英文原文
The media labeled “Meme Stock” $RPI has held its gains, and is up 46.12% this month. Ever stop to wonder if there’s something structural with OpenClaw demand if everyone in Silicon Valley is dressing up in Lobster Costumes? https://t.co/IkR5BXn2dd
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Yamamura因AI光子业务及股息利好大涨，估值仍低于账面价值。
顺便一提，这是日本最大的瓶罐制造商(Bottlemaker)。在我今天的帖子发布后，股价上涨了20.3%。> 看到类似的平行案例：Toto（马桶制造商）对应存储芯片，而Yamamura（瓶罐制造商）对应光子学(Photonics)。即使在此涨幅之后，其市值仍为2.95亿美元，低于3.6亿美元的账面价值。看来市场正在意识到上周宣布的结构性股息，从而为股东释放价值。此外，你还免费获得了一个同比增长91%的高增长、高利润率AI部门。
英文原文
This is Japan’s largest Bottlemaker by the way. Up 20.3% after my post today. > Seeing parallels like Toto the toilet maker with Memory vs. Yamamura the bottle maker with Photonics. Even after the increase, it’s still trading at $295M vs. $360M book value. Looks like markets is waking up to the structural dividend announcement last week, unlocking value to shareholders. On top of that you get a high growth, high margin 91% Y/Y AI segment for free.
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作者按战略价值排序光子学供应链个股，并分享个人仓位偏好。
$AXTI 是我的首选，仅因其在光子学(Photonics)供应链中的战略价值。$LITE 紧随其后，若展望两年后则严重被低估，但目前看来略显超买。$COHR 大概排第三，$AAOI 排第四，作为另一只潜力股(Moonshot)，其凭借 Maia 和 Trainium 的放量获得了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资质。话虽如此，我个人不喜欢在 $AXTI 这类小盘股上配置过高仓位，尽管 $COHR 排名第三，但我对其持仓比例最高。
英文原文
$AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains. Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended. Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualifications just for Maia and Trainium ramp. That being said don’t personally like high allocations in smaller stocks like $AXTI, highest might be in $COHR despite it being #3
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指出公司市值低于净资产，视股息为买入信号。
@pulseandpen 我的意思是，即使（资产）增加了15%，其市值(Market Cap)仍约为2.7亿美元，而资产为3.6亿美元，这甚至还没有计入他们的其他业务。所以基本上，清算公司(Liquidation Company)将返还3.6亿美元。我只是需要股息(Dividends)作为绿灯信号。
英文原文
@pulseandpen I mean even if it increased 15% it still trades at like $270m MC vs $360m in assets, not even factoring in any of their other businesses. So basically, liquidation company would be returning $360m. Just needed dividends for the green light.
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博主分享新发现的山村公司研究结果。
@sedonaroxx 山村(Yamamura)是我在查看引用的帖子后刚刚发现的一家新公司。 我只是在发布关于它的研究结果。
英文原文
@sedonaroxx Yamamura is a new company I just discovered after looking at the quoted post. I’m just publishing my findings on it
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当前股价隐含免费买入，结构性股息将返还价值。
价值被保留在公司内部（囤积）。 但市场可能错过的最大信号是结构性股息（Structural Dividends），它将价值返还给股东。 因此，以当前价格来看，这看起来像是你免费买下了这家公司，然后等待价值随时间返还。
英文原文
Value was kept inside the company (hoarding). But the biggest signal markets probably missed was the structural dividends to return value back to shareholders. So at current prices, it looks like you’re buying the company for free then waiting for value to be returned over time
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山村玻璃估值极低且光子业务高增，股息提升确认价值解锁。
仔细研究了一下：山村玻璃（TYO: 5210）是个大牛股。你基本上是在免费买入这家企业？其光子学部门的光通信盖（optical communication caps）业务同比增长91%。你仅支付2.4亿美元就买到了一家销售额5亿美元、实际账面价值（工厂、设备、现金）超3.6亿美元且拥有快速增长的AI数据中心光子学部门的公司。此前这被视为价值陷阱，但 -> 他们将股息率提升至5.5%，这是价值已解锁的最大信号。而在2月12日的财报中，他们证实这是结构性的（并非市场担忧的一次性事件）。这基本上就是等待并放松心态？
英文原文
Took a closer look: Yamamura glass (TYO: 5210) is a banger. You’re basically buying the business for free? And their photonics division is growing 91% Y/Y for optical communication caps. You are paying $240M for a company that does $500M sales with $360M+ in actual book value (factories, equipment, cash) and a fast growing AI DC photonics division. Before this was a trap but -> they upped dividend amount to 5.5%, which is the biggest signal that value is now unlocked. And now from their Feb 12th earnings, they confirmed this was structural (not just one off that markets were fearing) It’s just wait and chill basically?
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买入AI股是对抗AGI的最佳对冲，存储处周期中段，光子学处起点。
@dubiousnoob 在我看来，对抗通用人工智能(AGI)和通用AI的最佳对冲方式是买入AI股票，而不是持有现金。但这并不意味着太晚，相关标的将不断创出历史新高(ATH)。目前某些领域（如存储）正处于周期中段，而其他领域（如光子学）则处于周期起点。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob Best hedge against AGI and general AI is buying AI stocks, not sitting on cash imo. But not late, things will make new ATHs every day. Just in the middle of the cycle right now for some things (memory) and at the start of others (like photonics)
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看好AXTI光子潜力及美股科技巨头，建议做多黄金。
$MU - 最终更看好 SK Hynix，但这是更安全的“美国制造”标的。 $AXTI 还有很长的路要走，需等待1年直到极端短缺出现。可能是光子学(Photonics)板块中回报潜力最大的最爱。 $EWY - Vega扩张的尾声，隐含波动率(IV)可能会将其推高一点。但如果你买入看涨期权(Call)，应是因为 KOSPI 上涨而非博弈 IV。 做多黄金是好的，因为外国正在大量买入并抛售美国国债。不喜欢在当前价位做空比特币(Bitcoin)。 $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 在当前估值下具有吸引力。
英文原文
$MU - ended up liking SK Hynix more but safer made in America play $AXTI long way to go, 1 year wait until extreme shortage hits. Prob my favorite in photonics sector for return potential $EWY - tail end of Vega expansion, IV will likely send it a tad higher. But if you’re buying calls do it because KOSPI goes up not for IV plays. Gold longs are good because foreign countries are buying it up and selling Us treasuries. Don’t like Bitcoin puts at these levels. $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are attractive at these valuations.
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SNDK 专注于自身业务，无视市场波动。
$SNDK 并不关心市场的其他部分。 https://t.co/vUk3NUnQ0P
英文原文
$SNDK does not concern itself with the rest of the market. https://t.co/vUk3NUnQ0P
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分享关于$EWY及韩国存储股的S级免费研究，结合宏观、微观与衍生品技术面。
这是我免费发布的 S 级研究！ 感谢像 @TheValueist 这样的技术派博主的点名推荐，他们看到了这个交易想法有多棒： -> 尽管 ETF 进行了再平衡，仍梳理出了 $EWY 与 SK 海力士/三星之间的穿透结构(pass through structures) -> 通过将其与已实现隐含波动率(realized IV)进行对比，发现了特定期权链上 2028 年波动率定价的问题。 -> 将其总结为易于理解的论点(thesis)。 此外，在三星/SK 海力士预测下调后，叠加了方向性的长期存储超级周期(long memory supercycle)。 并非每个人都能从 Jane Street 算法中获利，并预见韩国整体波动率的上升！
英文原文
This is S tier research I put out for free! Appreciate the shoutout from technical folks like @TheValueist who saw how awesome this trade idea was: -> mapped pass through structures of $EWY and SK Hynix/Samsung despite ETF rebalances -> found 2028 volatility pricing issues on option chains in specific by comparing it to realized IV. -> summarized that into an easy-to-understand thesis. on top of directional long memory supercycle after breakdowns of Samsung/Sk Hynix projections. Not everyone can profit off of Jane Street algorithms and foresee South Korea citing increasing volatility across the board!
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分析XLU期权波动潜力及EWY存储周期重估逻辑。
$XLU 的虚值期权(OTM)由于隐含波动率(IV)较低，双向大幅波动的可能性更大。如果这是因电网现代化和 AI 推理而出现的百年一遇的重估，可能会非常有趣。 $EWY 极大概率会出现 Vega 扩张 + 基于存储超级周期的方向性做多，但除非市场将三星定价为美国超大规模云厂商并消除韩国折价，否则一年内翻 10 倍的可能性极小。
英文原文
$XLU with OTM is likely to move a lot more both ways due to low IV. If it is a once in history re-rating bc of grid modernization and ai inference), could be very interesting. $EWY is high probability Vega expansion + directional long from memory supercycle but extremely unlikely to return 10x in a year unless markets price in Samsung like a US hyperscaler + remove the Korean discount
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$EWY因三星/SK海力士传导效应被低估，建议买入2028年OTM看涨期权。
感觉很多人误解了这篇帖子中的深度研究(DD)： 核心观点：$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)可能会保持高位。 目前实现波动率(Realized Volatility)可能在60%高段至70%低段。 长期可能稳定在~55%，因为： 尽管有任何重新加权，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的传导集中度(pass through concentration)巨大。 随着SK海力士权重增加，其他主要持仓如SK Square（因其持有20%股份，其市值的90%来自SK海力士股票）的权重也会增加。 三星的情况也是如此。 表面上看两者上限为50%，但传导结构(pass through structures)会大幅放大该价值。 尽管有新权重，随着传导结构导致其市值上升，$EWY将越来越成为SK海力士/三星的看涨期权(call option)。 2028年虚值(OTM)LEAPS期权作为波动性存储名称的看涨期权，其40%低段的IV定价被低估。 并且很可能从当前水平的Vega扩张中受益。
英文原文
Feels like a lot of people misunderstood the DD in this post: Main point: $EWY IV will likely stay elevated. Currently realized is probably in the high 60’s, low 70’s. Long term likely settles ~55% because: Pass through concentration in SK Hynix and Samsung is enormous despite any re-weighting. As SK Hynix increases, other top weightings like SK Square (90% of its MC comes from SK Hynix equity since it’s a 20% shareholder) will increase. Same with Samsung. It looks like 50% max for them both, but pass through structures balloons that value a lot. Despite new weights, $EWY will increasingly become a call option on SK Hynix / Samsung as their MCs go up from pass-through structure. 2028 OTM leaps are mispriced at low 40’s IV as a call on volatile memory names. And will likely benefit from Vega expansion at current levels.
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SK海力士估值过高，应重基本面而非图表。
@AntoineLavenant 这是韩国指数，不是某种随机的迷因股(meme stock)。SK海力士(SK Hynix)上周市值达4000亿美元，预计明年利润将超过 $AAPL。所以我认为还有很大的下行空间。更重要的是关注基本面而非图表。
英文原文
@AntoineLavenant It’s the South Korea index not some random meme stock. SK Hynix was a $400B company last week and projected to make more than $AAPL next year. So I think there’s some ways to go. More important to look at fundamentals over the chart
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对比UTES、AIPO与XLU，认为XLU隐含波动率最低。
@shivprakash 查看了其他类似 $UTES 的标的，它是第二好的选择，因为它有更多的独立电力生产商(IPP)敞口，以及 $AIPO（没有期权链）。但波动率最低且适合捕捉波动的还是 $XLU。
英文原文
@shivprakash looked at others like $UTES which was the second best as it had more IPP exposure and $AIPO (no option chain). But lowest IV for movement was $XLU
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Reddit基本面低估且未受AI冲击，建议长期持有而非短期投机。
没有催化剂。只是基本面被低估，远期市盈率在25-30倍，而他们的净利润是收入的1/3，且收入同比增长约70%。 Reddit是少数未被AI颠覆却随板块抛售的软件股之一。 话虽如此，市场短期内并不总是对你有利，这就是为什么周期权是个坏主意。 长期来看，如果你做了研究，他们应该方向正确。
英文原文
There’s no catalyst. Just fundamentally undervalued at 25-30 forward p/e when their net income is 1/3rd revenue, and they grew revenue ~70% Y/Y. Reddit is one of the few software names not disrupted by AI but sold off in the bucket. That being said, markets don’t always play in your favor in the short term, which is why weekly options are a bad idea. Long term they should be directionally right if you do the research.
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XLU为电网扩张结构性多头，EWY押注定价错误致波动率扩张。
@Yannis_ko $XLU 更多是源于电力/电网投资和扩张的结构性增量（方向性做多）交易。 $EWY 则是对定价错误导致的波动率扩张的押注。
英文原文
@Yannis_ko $XLU is more of a structural delta (directional long) play from power/grid investments and expansion. $EWY was a call on volatility expansion from mispricing.
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分析$EWY隐含波动率低估，建议做多2028年虚值看涨期权以捕捉波动率扩张及三星/SK海力士上涨红利。
2028年$EWY的隐含波动率(IV)可能会大幅上升（目前约44%）。 实际波动率(Realized Volatility)的定价应在~65-68%+。 因此，仅凭波动率 Vega 扩张，2028年虚值(OTM)长期看涨期权(LEAP Call)的价值可能会再次翻倍。 大多数人没有意识到这一点，但其前十大持仓包括： 1. SK Square（集中度排名第5）。其净资产(NAV)的90%是SK海力士(SK Hynix)。 2. 三星生命保险，作为三星电子最大股东之一，其净资产与之挂钩。 3. 三星C&T（$EWY的重要组成部分）持有三星约5%的股份作为其净资产。 4. 三星火灾海上保险：持有三星电子1.49%的股份（鉴于三星电子体量巨大，这构成了其净资产的很大一部分）。 5. 三星C&T -> 拥有三星生命（间接持有三星电子）。 6. 三星电机 / 三星SDS -> 很大程度上与三星电子的资本支出(Capex)周期绑定。 7. 三星电子优先股 - 无投票权优先股被视为独立实体，但权重增加。 SK海力士和三星权重的穿透集中度显著高于算法和市场的认知。 你会看到，实际波动率并非如此，因为具有广泛分散性的指数不会随着三星/SK海力士的表现而每天上下波动6%。或者2个月内波动42%... 或者12个月内波动145%... 如果ETF按季度再平衡，你会看到更多权重流入像SK海力士这样波动性更大的名称，以及那些将三星和SK海力士作为净资产的小型所有者的权重上升幅度更大。 这又因做市商(MMs)尚未定价的未实现波动率而加剧，来源包括： - 10倍杠杆的三星/SK海力士永续合约。 - 2倍杠杆的三星/SK海力士ETF即将获批和发行。 动态对冲这两者将增加三星+SK海力士的波动率，并通过二阶效应 -> $EWY。 所以说它是“SK指数”基本上就是三星和SK海力士，并非玩笑。 而44%的IV定价来自平坦的韩国10年期指数。 当来自存储超级周期的新波动率成为结构性时。 TLDR： - 做多虚值看涨期权实际上是以44% IV买入SK海力士/三星的看涨期权。 - 单独来看，它们的IV可能在73-88%左右。 - 考虑到其他成分股，实际IV可能处于60%中段。 - 如果2028年虚值看涨期权的IV从44%上升到65%+，仅波动率扩张就会增加期权价值。 - 市场有时存在真正的低效，这看起来就是其中之一。 这是一笔波动率扩张交易，加上在未来两年的存储、机器人、晶圆代工超级周期中做多SK海力士/三星的额外好处。
英文原文
2028 IV for $EWY will likely go much higher (~44% right now). Realized should be priced around ~65-68%+. So, 2028 OTM leap call value may double again from volatility Vega Expansion alone. Most people don’t this but top holdings include: 1. SK Square (#5 concentration). 90% of their NAV is SK Hynix. 2. Samsung Life Insurance, NAV as one of the largest shareholders of Samsung Electronics. 3. Samsung C&T (large part of $EWY) owns ~5% of Samsung as its NAV. 4. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: 1.49% stake in Samsung Electronics (given how big Samsung Electronics is, it makes up a large part of NAV) 5. Samsung C&T -> owns Samsung Life (which indirectly owns Samsung Electronics) 6. Samsung Electro-Mechanics / Samsung SDS -> Largely tethered to Samsung Electronics Capex cycles. 7. Samsung Electronics Preferred Shares - Non-voting preferred shares are treated as separate entities, but increases in weighting. Pass through concentration of SK Hynix and Samsung weightings is significantly higher than algorithms and markets think. And you see that realized, as Indexes with broad diversification don’t go up and down 6% a day depending on Samsung/Sk Hynix performance. Or 42% in 2 months... or 145% in 12 months... If the ETF rebalances quarterly, you get more weighting into more volatile names like SK Hynix and the weighting of smaller owners that own Samsung and SK Hynix as NAV go up more than others. This is compounded with unrealized volatility that MMs have not priced in yet from: - 10x Leverage Samsung / Sk Hynix perps now. - 2x leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix ETFs approvals and release soon. Dynamically hedging both of these will increase volatility on Samsung + SK Hynix and by second order effect -> $EWY. So, it's not a joke when you say its SK Index is basically Samsung and Sk Hynix. And that 44% IV pricing comes from the flat 10 year Korean index. When the new volatility from the memory supercycle is structural. TLDR: - Long OTM calls is effectively calls on Sk Hynix/Samsung at 44% IV. - Individually they likely sit around 73-88%. - When you account for other names, realized IV may sit in the mid 60's. - Vega expansion on 2028 OTM calls if they go from 44% to 65%+ would increase option values from volatility expansion alone. - There are genuine inefficiencies with the markets sometimes and this looks like one of them. This is a volatility expansion trade coupled with the added benefit of long SK Hynix/Samsung during the memory, robotics, foundry supercycles for the next two years.
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LITE长期低估但短期超买，市场抢跑过度。
@ValarMorghuliz9 如果快进两年，$LITE 被严重低估。但就目前而言，它可能略微超买，而且我认为市场已经进行了一些过度的抢跑交易。
英文原文
@ValarMorghuliz9 $LITE is very undervalued if you fast forward 2 years. But as of now, it’s probably a tad overextended and markets have done a bit too much frontrunning imo.
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AXTI 2027-28 年有望因光子学放量及出口管制受益。
@crypticTooth 我之前分享过这张图表，但基本上 2027-2028 年才是 $AXTI 真正有趣的时候，可能伴随类似存储芯片的价格上涨。这只是在光子学(CPO)放量以及中国出口管制开始生效之前的初步尽职调查(DD)。 https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh
英文原文
@crypticTooth I’ve shared this graph before but basically 2027-2028 is where the real fun should begin with $AXTI + possible memory-style price hikes. This is just early DD before the photonics ramp + China export controls should start kicking into gear. https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh
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看好2026年电力板块因AI需求及降息带来的异常表现。
我认为2026年对于极其平淡的电力/电网(Utilities/Grid)板块来说可能是一个异常年份，原因在于该领域过度的资本支出(capex)、去年开始的降息在今年影响盈利，以及AI推理(AI inference)的极端需求。所以时间会证明这笔交易是否成功！我首次发帖时隐含波动率(IV)约为14%。
英文原文
I do think 2026 could be an anomaly for the extremely boring power/grid because of excessive capex into the sector, rate cuts from last year -> this year hitting earnings, and extreme demand for AI inference. So time will tell if the trade turns out well! IV was ~14% when I first posted.
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澄清持有RPI基于财务逻辑，反对将其视为迷因股。
是的，我持有 $RPI。它在我投资组合中的占比非常小。 让我感到愤怒的是这种观点：“对公司本身的喜爱胜过其财务表现或潜力”。 整个投资逻辑（Thesis）都是围绕从收入增长到总可服务市场（TAM）的未定价财务数据展开的。 我宁愿看到像树莓派（Raspberry Pi）这样盈利的无晶圆厂半导体（Fabless Semi）公司，不要仅仅因为媒体想要编造故事而变成一只迷因股（Meme Stock）。
英文原文
Yes I own $RPI. It’s a very small weighting in my portfolio. What gets me riled up is this: "fondness for the company itself rather than financial performance or potential". The whole thesis was around unpriced financials from revenue growth to TAM. I’d rather not have a profitable fabless semi like Raspberry Pi turn into a meme stock just because the media wants to make something up.
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嘲笑媒体错误对比RPI与DELL市盈率，批评评论员不专业。
@britplay 今天《金融时报》(FT) 又有一篇试图将 $RPI 与 $DELL 的市盈率(P/E)进行比较的文章，我简直笑出声来。显然，许多市场评论员根本不知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
@britplay There was another one from FT today trying to compare P/E ratios with $RPI to $DELL and I just burst out laughing. Clearly a lot of the market writers have no clue what they’re talking about