个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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若管理层执行到位，当前估值偏低，且云厂商产能紧张，亚马逊订单有望保留。
确实，这是一个很大的假设，且整体情况取决于管理层的执行能力。仅从预测来看，如果其实现每月3.78亿美元营收且毛利率约40%，那么在70亿美元市值下看起来被低估了。话虽如此，鉴于超大规模云服务商在未来两年的产能紧张状况，我认为$AMZN这次不会取消订单。让我们看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
True, it’s a big if and whole thing relies on management execution. Going off the projections alone if they hit $378m/month revenue off ~40% gross margins. It looks undervalued at $7B. That being said don’t think $AMZN will pull orders this time around given how capacity strained all the hyperscalers are for the next 2 years. We’ll see how things go
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Soitec是CPO长期优选，短期看供应缺口，2027年需谨慎。
@itsmaimir 对于共封装光学(CPO)，Soitec 是一个长期防御性更强的标的。这是一个基于超大规模云服务商未来一年供应短缺的原始动量+执行型交易。我对 2027 年会稍加谨慎。
英文原文
@itsmaimir For CPO, Soitec is a much better long term defensible play. This is raw momentum + execution type play based on hyperscalers lacking supply over the next year. I’d be a little more cautious in 2027.
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AAOI短期因市值小占优，COHR等长期更具防御性。
@SkiIIls 我认为未来一年 $AAOI 的表现将更优，仅因其市值较小且在其他光学公司实现技术跨越。$COHR、$AXTI、$LITE 在长期来看更具防御性。
英文原文
@SkiIIls No over the next year I think $AAOI will outperform just due to its small MC size + leapfrogging the other optical companies. $COHR, $AXTI, $LITE are much more defensible long term.
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看好光子学趋势，建议同时买入AAOI和AXTI。
光子学是未来几年人工智能领域的新范式转变。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都为所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）供货，并处于这一浪潮的前沿（尽管市值非常小）。 我认为这两家公司的股价尚未充分反映其价值。既然可以两只都持有来拉动我的雪橇，何必在两只“哈士奇”之间做选择呢？
英文原文
Photonics is the new paradigm shift for AI over the next few years. Both $AAOI and $AXTI supply to all the hyperscalers and are the forefront of it (while being really small in marketcap). Don't think either of them are priced in yet. Why should I choose between individual Huskeys when I can have both carrying my sled?
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AAOI瓶颈在产能而非需求，扩产资金规模合理。
@pablocuellar_3 如果三大超大规模云服务商表示会购买你能生产的所有光收发器(transceivers)，那么$AAOI的问题并非需求不足，而是其产能扩张(capacity buildout)的规模。考虑到资金用途（而非像$GME或$POET那样囤积），2.5亿美元简直是九牛一毛。
英文原文
@pablocuellar_3 If 3 hyperscalers say they will buy any transceivers you can possibly ever make. It's not really a demand problem with $AAOI, just how much they can capacity they can buildout. $250m is pennies considering it's used for that reason (and not just hoarding like $GME or $POET).
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指出AXTI内部人抛售预警早于两个月前，股价已涨3-4倍。
@FFrxev 顺便提一下，关于内部人士抛售的完全相同的情况，在两个月前 $AXTI 股价为 12 美元时就发布过了。自那以来，股价已接近 3-4 倍。 https://t.co/MgIFZag2iF
英文原文
@FFrxev This exact thing regarding insider selling was posted 2 months ago when $AXTI was $12 by the way. It's close to 3-4x since then. https://t.co/MgIFZag2iF
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AAOI获三大云厂商抢购产能，预期已部分定价，风险在于执行。
我去年在$AAOI股价约$28时便已建仓，至今涨幅已达3倍。起初我对它并没有很高的确信度，只是认为鉴于“美国制造”供应链优势及当时超大规模云服务商的资格认证，它具备潜力。但管理层近期的指引最终让我下定决心，因此我在当前价位加仓。拥有三家超大规模云服务商（可能是$GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT）抢购其所有产能，这是极其看涨的信号。尤其是当它们预测2027年下半年月收入将达到3.78亿美元时。市场是前瞻性的，所以我认为这一预期现在已开始被定价。唯一的变数是执行能力，但这正是投资大多数公司所必须承担的风险。
英文原文
I was actually in $AAOI since $28-ish last year, so it's 3x'd since then. But didn't really have high conviction in it, just thought it had potential given Made in America supply chains + hyperscaler qualification at the time. But management projections recently sealed the deal, so I ended up buying more around these levels. Having 3 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, buying up any supply you can make is incredibly bullish. Especially when they're projecting $378M a month revenue round H2 2027. Markets are forward looking so I think it started to get priced in now. Only uncertainty is execution, but that's the risk you're taking with majority of companies.
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看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其营收将超越同行且下行风险小。
高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这明年很容易翻3倍。 英伟达资助了$COHR，后者在马来西亚进行800G/1.6T的制造。 $LITE在泰国使用FN进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造工厂。 我会一直强调这一点，但Applied Optoelectronics是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光通信公司将业务外包到了亚洲，而$AAOI则花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了$COHR和$LITE以建立美国版本，旨在将其最关键的供应链与地缘政治风险隔离。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值550亿美元）2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元。 $AAOI（市值71亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年化经常性收入(ARR)。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约40%的毛利率），$AAOI实际上将超越$LITE 2026财年的预测。 再说一次。如果$AAOI实现其预测，它将超越$LITE（市值550亿美元）整个2026年的营收预测。 亚洲的$FN，2026年预测实际上与AAOI完全相同。 营收约43.9亿美元，毛利率12.4%。且其市值为200亿美元（毛利率低得多）。 即使$AAOI只达到目标的70%，其估值重估很可能远超当前市值。 总结：在这些价位上，$AAOI很难看到下行风险，尤其是3-4家超大规模云厂商（可能是$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来数年的所有产能。且$GOOGL不采用共封装光学(CPO)路线。 $AAOI在增长方面超越了$CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层兑现承诺，$AAOI仍是一个非对称的1年高确信度标的。
英文原文
High conviction long: $AAOI. I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year. Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T. $LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand. I will keep hammering this home but Applied Optoelectronics is only pure Made in America, optical transceiver play. Again, the two "American" optical companies outsourced it to Asia, while $AAOI spent the years building up capacity and fabs in Texas. Nvidia funded both $COHR and $LITE just now to build out a US-version to insulate its most critical supply chain from geopolitical risks. But guess who already has the supply chain setup and is years ahead in that regard? $AAOI. $LITE ($55B) FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($7.1B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. $AAOI will actually leapfrong Lite FY 2026 projections if management executes (and with ~40% gross margins). Once again. $AAOI ($7B) will leapfrog $LITE ($55B MC) entire 2026 revenue projections if they deliver their projections. $FN over in Asia, 2026 projections are actually around the exact same as AAOI. ~4.39B revenue off 12.4% gross margins. And it's a $20B MC (with much lower margins) Even if $AAOI hits 70% of their target, it's likely to be heavily re-rated way past it's current marketcap. TLDR: Hard to see downside with $AAOI at these levels, especially with 3-4 hyperscalers (likely $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN) wanting to buy up any capacity it can make for years out. And with $GOOGL not going the CPO route. $AAOI leapfrogs $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE, and others in growth + benefits from photonics theme vs. copper (from the first two). $AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.
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分析IQE债务及出售台湾业务后的估值潜力，提示高风险不推荐。
粗略估计，其毛债务约为4100万欧元，加上约10-14%的股份稀释以及一轮（2400万）现金融资。 所以是的，$IQE 确实有债务。我的主要观点是，如果他们出售台湾业务以清偿债务，其资产负债表将变得非常干净，且其在光子学(Photonics)供应链中的拖拉机(Tractors，指核心设备/产能)及定位远超当前估值。 这是我个人进行这笔交易的原因，但我不会推荐它，因为这对大多数人来说通常风险较高。
英文原文
It’s ~41m euro gross debt, off the top of my head 10-14% share dilution + round (24m) cash. So yes $IQE debt. The main point was that if they sell their Taiwan business to clear that debt, their balance sheet looks clean and all the tractors + positioning in photonics supply chains far exceeds valuation. This was the personal reason why I took the trade but i wouldn’t recommend it since it’s generally risky for a lot of people.
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认为只要光子学存在，AXTI就是赢家。
@kingcoinmatt 只要光子学(Photonics)还存在，$AXTI 就永远是赢家。
英文原文
@kingcoinmatt $AXTI is always the winner as long as photonics is a thing.
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看好AAOI长期前景，认为IQE风险高但已翻倍。
@Mellokhai 只要管理层高管能达成其业绩指引，我对 $AAOI 的长期前景非常有信心。 $IQE 更像是一个高风险的“彩票型”机会，存在债务/重组等大量风险，结果难料。不过很高兴自从我提及它以来，股价已经翻倍了。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Very confident about $AAOI long term as long as management executives and hits their projections. $IQE more of a moonshot with a ton of risks with debt/restructuring, who knows. Glad it's doubled since I mentioned it though.
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指出$EWY高度集中于SK海力士和三星，认为市场担忧被夸大。
一个鲜为人知的事实是，$EWY 的主要持仓是 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星。我发布了一篇关于传导结构(pass through structures)的文章。其中 SK Square（权重最大）约 90% 的净资产价值(NAV)来自 SK 海力士。其他三星公司大多是三星电子(Samsung Electronics)的控股公司。未将作为独立权重计算的另一只三星电子上市股票计入。因此，集中度远高于任何人预期。此外，许多成本也得到补贴，除非局势变得过于严峻，所以我认为许多担忧被夸大了。
英文原文
Fun fact that most people don’t know is $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung. I published a piece about the pass through structures. Where SK Square (largest weights) ~90% NAV was SK Hynix. Other Samsung companies are largely holding companies of Samsung Electronics. Not including the other Samsung Electronics listing that’s counted as an independent weight. So concentration is much higher than anyone expects. A lot of costs are subsidized too, unless the situation gets too severe, so I do think a lot of fears are overblown
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定投SK海力士并轮动至存储板块，视当前波动为中期买入机会。
我个人正在对SK海力士(SK Hynix)进行定投，并将其他持仓轮动回存储芯片领域。美国、澳大利亚和马来西亚将填补液化天然气(LNG)的缺口，因为存储芯片对美国的人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，尤其是为了避免在竞争中落后于中国。我将此视为一个买入机会，就像去年大家恐慌性抛售$NVDA时那样。不知道这种波动会持续多少天，也很难精准抄底，但中期来看我认为它会恢复。
英文原文
I’m personally cost averaging into SK Hynix and rotating my other names back into memory. US/Australia/Malaysia will fill the LNG gap as memory is critical to America’s AI buildout. Especially so it doesn’t lose to China. I just see this as a buying opportunity like when everyone panic sold $NVDA the other year. Don’t know how many days this volatility lasts + hard to time the bottom, but mid term I see it recovering.
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询问是否应全仓买入LASR。
@nikitabier 你这是在暗示我全仓买入 $LASR 吗？
英文原文
@nikitabier Is this you telling me to full port it into $LASR?
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CRCL案例证明基本面重于图表，关注USDC供应与政策。
$CRCL 是一个很好的教训，说明了基本面比股价/图表更重要。需要关注的是 USDC 供应量、利率以及《Clarity Act》。而不是情绪是否糟糕，或者 XYZ 技术分析(TA)是否说它会涨到 30 美元。X 上的所有人都在 200 美元时争相买入，但在 50 美元时却退缩了。
英文原文
$CRCL is a good lesson why fundamentals matter more than stock price/charts. Things to watch are USDC supply, interest rates, and Clarity Act. Not whether or not sentiment is bad or if the XYZ TA says it’s going to $30. Everyone on X was rushing to buy this at $200 but chickened out at $50.
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建议持有$AEHR股票加融资，避免高IV的LEAPS期权。
@demarscrypto 如果你想要杠杆，就坚持持有股票并配合少量融资，$AEHR 的 LEAPS（长期期权）隐含波动率(IV)实在太高了。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Just stick with shares and slight margin if you want leverage, IV for $AEHR leaps are way too high.
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$AEHR获连续订单，有望迎来从投机小盘股到量产重估的拐点。
感觉 $AEHR（12亿美元市值）正接近从投机性小盘股向大规模订单增长的拐点。就在上周，他们又收到了一笔1400万美元的订单。今天，他们的硅光子学(silicon photonics)客户又追加了一笔后续订单。一旦他们的客户/超大规模数据中心(hyperscalers)转向“大规模量产”和“批量生产”，很可能会触发 $AEHR 的巨大重估周期。鉴于今年每周都有订单新闻，这种情况发生的可能性似乎更大。
英文原文
Feels like $AEHR ($1.2B) is close to hitting its inflection point from a speculative small cap to mass order ramp. Just last week they received another $14M order. And today another follow-up order from their silicon photonics customer. Once their customers/hyperscalers transition to “high-volume manufacturing" and "volume production”, would likely trigger a massive rerating cycle for $AEHR. Feels more likely for it to happen than not given the weekly news of orders this year.
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看好某CPO垄断股，虽短期波动大但具西方供应链优势。
@Jap97Taki 是的.. 我喜欢我的股票每天上下波动 20% 带来的肾上腺素飙升感。 这只股票很可能将经历一段超级无聊的等待期，直到共封装光学(CPO) 临近时进行重估。 但它们是真正的单一垄断者（而非像 $AXTI / $SUM 那样的双寡头）+ 西方供应链。
英文原文
@Jap97Taki Yeah.. I like the adrenaline rush of my stocks going up and down 20% a day. This one is likely going to be a super boring wait for re-rating as CPO approaches. But they're a genuine singular monopoly (rather than duopoly like AXT/Sumitomo) + western supply chain too.
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看好AXTI，认为其在光子学领域仍是关键瓶颈。
@Long311203 是的，我个人更喜欢 $AXTI，因为它们是当前的瓶颈，并且对于任何与光子学(Photonics)相关的领域来说，它们仍将是一个瓶颈。
英文原文
@Long311203 Yes I personally like $AXTI miles better since they're a current bottleneck and will still be one for anything photonics related.
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买入Soitec需忍受漫长等待，NVDA投资CPO相关股或成催化剂。
@OnlyGB 我最终确实买入了 Soitec，但如果市场不打算现在就对共封装光学(CPO)进行定价，这将是一段极其痛苦的等待期。我觉得 $NVDA 投资 $COHR 和 $LITE 可能是一个微小的催化剂。
英文原文
@OnlyGB I did end up buying Soitec, but it's going to be an incredibly painful wait unless markets want to price in CPO now. I feel like $NVDA investing in $COHR and $LITE might have been a tiny catalyst.
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看好Soitec在CPO基板垄断地位，认为其具备2-3倍潜力。
我觉得如果人们有耐心等一年，Soitec ($SLOIF) 相当于免费赠送 2-3 倍的涨幅？ 他们在共封装光学(CPO) 基板领域拥有真正的垄断地位。 很多人关注 Shin-Etsu，但他们只是获得了 Soitec 的技术授权。 它不像 $AXTI 那样是当前面临的材料瓶颈，而是需求瓶颈（目前由于 CPO 尚未规模化，他们还没有需求）。 但我们都清楚，需求将在 2027 年底到 2028 年到来。 主要问题在于机会成本，但这只是市场何时想要提前布局的问题。在我看来，这仍然优于指数回报？
英文原文
I feel like Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is a free 2-3x if people have the patience to wait a year? They're a genuine monopoly over CPO for substrates. Lot of folks looking at Shin-Etsu but they're just licensing Soitec's stuff. It's not a current materials bottleneck like $AXTI, but a demand one (they have none right now since CPO hasn't scaled up). But we all know it's coming later in 2027 -> 2028. Main thing is opportunity cost, but just a matter of when markets want to frontrun it. Still better than your index returns imo?
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伊朗袭击致LNG暴涨引发韩股暴跌，但AI需求强劲使三星/SK海力士可转嫁成本，视为买入机会。
关于 $EWY / KOSPI 暴跌以及这是否是三星/SK海力士的买入机会的思考： 这看起来是一个明确的买入机会。 尤其是因为投资者误解了2026年并非2022年（俄乌冲突）的局面。AI从根本上改变了内存需求，与2022年消费电子低迷时期不同，当时三星/SK海力士不得不自行承担运营支出(OPEX)。 韩国历史上最大单日跌幅的主要催化剂是伊朗无人机袭击卡塔尔能源公司(Ras Laffan)综合体。 卡塔尔约占全球液化天然气(LNG)供应的~20%。 结果： -> 荷兰TTF（欧洲天然气）：+46% -> 亚洲现货LNG：+39% -> 美国天然气：+4.16%（正常） LNG飙升是下跌的催化剂，因为韩国严重依赖进口LNG，暴露度极高。 出于对通胀性能源冲击的恐惧，投资者激进抛售韩国科技股，叠加10倍杠杆三星/SK海力士的去杠杆效应。 导致： -> 三星电子下跌9.79%。 -> SK海力士股价暴跌11.12%。 -> $EWY（韩国期货）今日下跌14.49%。 人们担心重演2022年俄乌战争导致LNG价格上涨，韩国电力公社(KEPCO)停止吸收亏损后，韩国工业电价上涨约70%。 仅2022年，三星国内设施就消耗了约28,000 GWh的电力。 电价上涨使三星年度运营支出(OPEX)增加约2万亿韩元（超过14亿美元），SK海力士增加超过1万亿韩元。 这种前所未有的运营支出激增发生在最糟糕的时机。 2022年底，半导体行业进入残酷的周期性低迷。后疫情时代PC和智能手机需求暴跌，导致DRAM和NAND闪存严重供过于求。 然而，2026年完全不同： 与2022年低迷期面临能源成本上升相比： AI对内存的需求完全史无前例。27日有报道称三星/SK海力士再次上调DRAM价格。 $SNDK的NAND需求如此之高，以至于产能分配需要提前3年预订。 需求看不到尽头，直到2028年都没有缓解迹象。 相比之下，2022年笔记本电脑和智能手机的消费端已经面临低迷，内存制造商无法转嫁成本（并承担了巨额OPEX账单）。这导致了上次的大幅修正。 由于2026年全球AI芯片短缺如此严重，他们将无缝地将高昂的公用事业账单转嫁给供应链下游。 由于供应严重受限，三星和SK海力士主导市场条款。大型科技超大规模云服务商（微软、Meta、Google、Amazon）陷入AI军备竞赛。他们目前对价格高度不敏感，优先考虑确保供应量而非讨价还价。 因此，这看起来是一个明确的买入机会，尤其是鉴于预测范围： 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对三星： 2026年：~1820亿美元 vs. ~2108亿美元 2027年：~2351亿美元 vs. ~3337亿美元 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对SK海力士： 2026年：~1329亿美元 vs. ~1905亿美元 2027年：~1670亿美元 vs. ~3128亿美元 此次抛售看起来像是出于对2022年俄乌冲突的恐惧以及10倍杠杆工具带来的极端杠杆进行的即时去风险化。 但与2022年不同，当时笔记本电脑和消费需求已经低迷，LNG飙升导致三星/SK海力士买单： 这次成本转嫁给了超大规模云服务商，因为需求太高。 人们总是将KOSPI比作白银，但区别在于前者拥有惊人的运营收入，在牛市情景下，SK海力士等公司两年的收入 alone 就会超过其市值。 三星/SK海力士的下跌看起来是一个明确的买入机会，因为他们的运营收入可能会轻松超越任何短期波动。
英文原文
Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix: This looks like a clear buying opportunity. Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts. AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs. The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex. Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply. Results: -> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46% -> Asian Spot LNG: + 39% -> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine) The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG. Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix. Sending -> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%. -> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%. and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today. Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses. In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity. The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix. This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time. In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash. However, 2026 is completely different: Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn: AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix. Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance. There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028. Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time. Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain. Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling. As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from: Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments. But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill: This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high. People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix. The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.
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视战况决定LASR前景，若和平则削减国防敞口
@FairValueHunter 每个问题的答案都是“视情况而定”。$LASR 的最佳情景是战争持续，且以色列的“铁束”(Iron Beam) 系统持续拦截来自伊朗代理人的导弹。否则，如果突然进入和平时期，我会普遍削减国防板块的敞口。
英文原文
@FairValueHunter Every answer is it depends. Best case scenario for $LASR is if the war drags on and Israel’s Iron Beam keeps beaming down missiles from Iran proxies. Otherwise if there’s suddenly peacetime, would cut defense exposure in general
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RPI 3月财报见需求，AI智能体热潮助其营收增长。
谢谢！$RPI 的走向尚不明朗，3 月财报后我们将看到更多关于实际需求的可见性。感觉我每天都在看到 OpenClaw 的帖子，只要 AI 智能体(AI Agent)保持流行且需要用于编排的独立硬件，它就会获得收入顺风。
英文原文
Thanks! No clue where $RPI heads, we’ll get to see more visibility into actualized demand after earnings in March. Feels like I’m still seeing openclaw posts every day so as long as AI agent are popular + isolated hardware for orchestration is needed, will get it a revenue tailwind
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看好RKLB和LASR，建议基于硬核技术长期持有。
回想起来，本应增加更多定向能武器(EDW)的敞口。尤其是随着美国“金穹顶”激光防御系统为 $LASR 带来近乎指数级增长的潜在市场规模(TAM)。我只看到两家公司：$RKLB 股价在10美元区间，拥有可重复使用火箭和无限的太空 TAM；以及 $LASR，其激光束能“砰砰”击落高超音速导弹和火箭。我会像持有迷因股一样买入并长期持有它们，纯粹基于其原始、纯粹的硬核技术。昨天看到 Nlight 激光束从“铁束”系统击落火箭的视频，确实起到了助推作用。
英文原文
Looking back, should have had more Energy Directed Weapon exposure. Especially with America’s Golden Dome laser defense giving $LASR practically exponential TAM. There’s only two companies I’ve seen: $RKLB back in the 10’s for reusable rockets and infinite space TAM And $LASR for laser beams that go pew pew to hypersonic missiles and rockets That I would buy and hold like a meme stock just based on raw, unadulterated badass tech. It definitely helps that I’ve seen videos of Nlight laser beams shoot down rockets from the Iron Beam yesterday.
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$EWY 波动率异常，期权受 Vega 扩张利好，或唤醒做市商。
是的，如果 $EWY > 每天上下波动 7-10% > 比隐含波动率(IV)高达 93% 的量子公司更剧烈 > 且其 IV 定价比几乎不动的 $MRVL 还低 10% 尽管标的价格下跌，看涨期权(Call)仍受益于 Vega 扩张。这一事件可能会唤醒做市商(MMs) 对于试图在暴跌后加杠杆做多的人来说这很糟糕，但现有头寸受益于 IV 扩张。
英文原文
Yes if $EWY > goes up and down 7-10% a day > more volatile than quantum companies at 93% IV > and IV was priced 10% less than $MRVL that barely moves Calls benefit from Vega expansion despite underlying prices going down. This event will probably wake the MMs up It sucks for people trying to go long on leverage off the drop, but existing positions benefit from iv expansion
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韩股波动提供买入三星和SK海力士的机会
三星和SK海力士的10倍杠杆就这样没了。我之前说过，随着新的杠杆工具推出，$EWY和KOSPI将极度波动。最好的获利方式是利用错配的波动率，尤其是因为韩国市场基本上由这两只股票主导。日内下跌10%后，隐含波动率(IV)可能会大幅飙升。这次下跌主要源于宏观和流动性头寸调整，因为下跌发生在DRAM/NAND涨价报道之后。主要逆风是能源成本，但与往年压缩利润率不同，三星和SK海力士拥有完全的定价权，此次可以将成本转嫁。韩国科技巨头的营业利润强劲，这似乎是买入被杠杆投机者抛售筹码的机会。
英文原文
And… there goes all the 10x leverage Samsung and Sk Hynix. I said earlier that $EWY and KOSPI would be extremely volatile with the new leveraged instruments. And the best way to profit was off the mispriced volatility. Especially because it’s basically two stocks. IV will probably be hiked quite a bit up l after the 10% intraday drop. This seemed mainly macro and liquidity positioning as the drop followed reports of dram/nand price hikes. The main headwind was energy costs but unlike previous years where this compressed margins, Samsung, SK Hynix have complete pricing power and can pass through costs this time around. Operating income of the Korean tech giants are strong and seems like an opportunity to buy off all the leveraged degens.
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AXTI垄断光子学供应链，受益于AI建设，有望从25亿涨至200亿市值。
$AXTI 掌控着光子学（Photonics）AI 基础设施建设所需的供应链。其市值仅为 25 亿美元。 如果明年它的交易价格达到 200 亿美元或更高，我也不会感到惊讶。 $NVDA 今天展示了光子学在未来几年中的关键作用。如果 $AXTI 愿意，它可以在第二天对新合同涨价 500%，而来自 $LITE 或 $COHR 等公司都会为了锁定配额而欣然支付。 他们在日本的主要竞争对手受到了中国的出口管制，未来可能会面临产能紧张的局面。 我很乐意持有一个服务于万亿美元 AI 建设、市值 25 亿美元的垄断企业。
英文原文
$AXTI controls the supply chain needed for the AI buildout for photonics. At a $2.5B MC. I would not be surprised if it were trading at $20B or more next year. $NVDA today showed how critical photonics are for the next few years. If AXT wanted to AXT could price hike 500% the next day for new contracts and everyone from $LITE or $COHR would happily pay it to secure allocation. Their main competitor over in Japan got export controls by China and will likely be capacity strained in the future. I would happy sleep on a $2.5b monopoly for the trillion dollar AI buildout
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英伟达注资光子学公司后AXTI大涨，凸显其作为关键材料供应商的垄断地位。
天哪，这个论点或许是今年 X 上最传奇的一个。 在英伟达(Nvidia)今天向光子学玩家 $LITE 和 $COHR 注入 40 亿美元后，$AXTI 现在涨到了 46.7 美元。 猜猜谁控制着所有材料？ 匿名者，你听进去了吗？https://t.co/7Sm08hOQPA
英文原文
Holy ****, this thesis was perhaps the most legendary one on X this year. $AXTI is now at $46.7 after Nvidia funneled $4B into photonics players $LITE and $COHR today. Guess who controls all the materials? Did you listen anon? https://t.co/7Sm08hOQPA
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看好光子、存储、电力及国防板块，分享具体标的及轮动策略。
光子学、存储、电力和国防可能是目前势头最强的前3大板块。 其他如先进封装或散热等板块，恕我直言，你无法获得像前四大板块那样严重的瓶颈效应或回报。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 是我最看好的两个光子学标的。 三星和 SK 海力士是存储领域的两大首选。 关于电力，我之前已经说过 $XLU，受益于降息+电网现代化+超大规模云厂商推理需求。 然后是国防，可能是 $LASR 等，因为伊朗冲突是最大的催化剂之一。（并持仓直到和平时期到来） 我通常轮动操作约30只股票，所以像 $RDDT 这样的股票我在做波段交易，而像 $RPI 这样我之前提过的股票，我只是作为低仓位的备用持仓，以防我的逻辑被证实正确。 其中很大一部分是在顺势而为。
英文原文
Photonics, Memory, Power, and Defense are probably the top 3 momentum sectors right now. There’s others like advanced packaging or thermal but you won’t get to the severe bottleneck or returns as top 4 imo. $AAOI and $AXTI are top two favorite photonic plays. Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays. Power I’ve already said $XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference. Then defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts. (And hanging around until there’s peacetime) I usually rotate around 30 or so stocks, so one others like $RDDT I’ve been swing trading and others I’ve mentioned in the past like $RPI I just hold on the side with less concentration in case my thesis turns out right. Large part of it is riding the momentum.