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批评媒体缺乏技术背景却自信评价CW激光和InP护城河。
媒体里突然涌入这么多艺术史大学毕业生是怎么回事： 带着100%确定性进来， 发表他们对 CW 激光细节，以及 InP 衬底/坩埚加工护城河估值分析的看法？ 如果你懂东西，背景真的不重要。但如果你不懂……
英文原文
What’s with the influx of art history college grads in media: Coming in with 100% certainty: With their opinion of CW laser nuances and valuation analysis on InP substrate/crucible processing moats? Background genuinely don’t matter if you know your stuff. But if you don’t,
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用星战梗概括太空、激光和机器人主题。
我完全相信股市在暗中围绕建造死星和战斗机器人运转： $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = 死星 $LASR / $SIVE = 激光束 $TSLA / Unitree = 战斗机器人
英文原文
I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids: $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star $LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams $TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids https://t.co/C53qKjWrS8
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复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
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对IQE目前仅3倍多回报期待更高。
呃……到目前为止，我对 $IQE 的期待比3倍多更高。 不过还有时间。
英文原文
Eh... I had higher hopes so far with $IQE than 3x+. There's still time though. https://t.co/cK08L6yvm3
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LPK表现不错。
$LPK 结果表现得相当不错。
英文原文
$LPK turned out pretty well. https://t.co/mZlTyd4oUO
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用私有CPO玩家估值论证SIVE作为上游激光瓶颈应获得更高估值。
给试图做 $SIVE 估值分析的人： Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 今天大概估值约40亿到150亿美元以上。 Sivers 市值约26亿美元，而且很可能是它们所有人的上游激光供应商。 我甚至还没把 Poet、TFLN 相关的 Hyperlight/Lightium，或 Jabil 和其他未披露可插拔玩家纳入估值分析。 也没包括 CHIPS Act 合同、Apple/Nokia 关系，或 Aeva 等人形/物理 AI 业务。 散户对私募市场不太熟悉……但这些公司都被视为前沿 CPO 玩家，并且估值和规模都在迅速增长。 所以我预计 $SIVE 应该获得类似甚至更高估值，因为它有激光瓶颈溢价。尤其是在它通过并购扩展 TAM 和收入之后。 下个月 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 新资金流入会随时间缩小差距。 但 NASDAQ 上市可能才是真正给 Sivers 溢价的因素。
英文原文
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.
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反问读者是否听进去了。
你听了吗，朋友？
英文原文
Did you listen anon? https://t.co/q6miMwIUX7
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调侃AXTI和SIVE之后自己值得一部Netflix特别节目。
在 $AXTI 和 $SIVE 之后，我觉得我值得拥有自己的 Netflix 特别节目？
英文原文
I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg
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中文：订阅数达3.25万，感谢中文及日韩社区支持。
我现在订阅数已经有32.5K啦！ 真的超级感谢大家！ 照这个速度下去，我简直不敢相信自己快要超过马斯克，变成 X 上订阅人数第一的大佬了？！ 特别感谢中文圈小伙伴们最近的力挺。当然啦，也必须要感谢日韩圈的朋友们从一开始就一路支持我！
英文原文
我现在订阅数已经有32.5K啦！ 真的超级感谢大家！ 照这个速度下去，我简直不敢相信自己快要超过马斯克，变成X上订阅人数第的大佬了？！ 特别感谢中文圈小伙伴们最近的力挺。当然啦，也必须要感谢日韩圈的朋友们从开始就路支持我！ https://t.co/cpvb6KizDy
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称SIVE仍极早，机构被动流入和NASDAQ上市将带来更多美国机构。
你听了吗，朋友？ $SIVE 还极其早期。 我们下周将首次看到大量机构流入（BlackRock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再叠加很快的 NASDAQ 上市，以及更多美国机构进入。 这就是处在 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类名字最早期时的感觉。 而且现在仍处在主要机构资本尚未进入流通盘、CPO 超级周期尚未爬坡之前。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.
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列出SIVE受益于NASDAQ指数纳入、BlackRock/Vanguard被动买入、美国政府支持等新事件。
$SIVE 是这个周末全新事件的最大受益者： 1. Sivers 新纳入 NASDAQ 指数（OMX Stockholm）： Vanguard 和 BlackRock 都是新的被动资金流入。 加上下一周的 MSCI，对现有流通盘将有约6000万美元以上纯买入压力。 2. 美国政府和瑞典签署联合技术合作协议。 $SIVE 是少数 CHIPS Act 受益者之一，尤其是在瑞典。 如果你不记得，它们上周还获得了另一笔660万美元 CHIPS Act 奖励。 这让 $SIVE 得到美国政府大力支持，并对其至关重要。 简而言之：来自 BlackRock/Vanguard 这类最大美国机构的新被动资金流入，叠加美国政府支持。 这对基本面（来自五角大楼供应链的收入/TAM）和 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 流入都利好。 极度看多。
英文原文
$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend: 1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm): Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows. With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week. 2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration. $SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week. Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government. - TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard. Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend. Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ. Extremely bullish.
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中文长文：列出多个实质性垄断瓶颈，并讨论SIVE、HIMX、Foci等design-in/out风险。
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的： - MSSCORP（6830）：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅（SOI）衬底市场。 - NGK（5333）：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟（InP）衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯（Shunsin）这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地。 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence（壁仞供应商）、Lightmatter、Celestial 等行业领军者。 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX 或 Foci 未来面临被踢出局的风险最大，很可能被台积电光学部门采钰（Visera 6789）这类巨头垂直整合。不过未来两三年，借助 CPO 相关 FAU 和无源器件，它们眼前依然有巨大赚钱机会。
英文原文
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
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UDN报道TSM COUPE和AI光学市场，Foci和MSSCorp可能受益。
看，一篇新的 UDN 文章谈 $TSM COUPE + AI 光学市场。 机构投资者看好台湾公司： FOCI（3363）和 MSSCorps（6830）预计受益。 不过……这个“机构”是不是应该改成 X 上的散户投资者？ 关于 FOCI：“其 FAU 产品至少已与台积电合作开发三年，规格已推进到1.6T、3.2T，后续量产日程成为市场观察重点。” 关于 MSS：“切入硅光子和 CPO 检测分析，主打‘光损耗检测’技术……并推出硅光子测试平台，锁定研发、工程验证、失效分析和少量多样化测试应用。” 这仍然是两家极小的公司……像 MSS 这样的名字甚至没有被高盛提到，尽管新闻声称有相关性。 所以感觉是 X 很早发现了这个，主流机构看到这类确认后可能即将进入。
英文原文
Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets. Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies: FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X? For FOCI: "Its FAU products have been developed in cooperation with TSMC for at least three years, and the specifications have been promoted to 1.6T, 3.2T, and the subsequent mass production schedule has become the focus of market observation." For MSS: "cut into the silicon photonics and CPO detection analysis, the main "light loss detection" technology ... and launch of the silicon photonics test platform, lock in research and development, engineering verification, failure analysis and a small number of diverse test applications." These are still two extremely small companies... and things like MSS weren't even mentioned by GS, despite the news claims about relations. So feels like X found this early, mainstream institutions are likely about to enter after seeing this sort of confirmation.
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Sivers通过Aeva成为Boston Dynamics的激光供应商，CPO技术是物理AI开发核心
有趣的事实：同一家公司经常出现在不同的供应链中。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为上游激光供应商，通过以下路径供应给 Boston Dynamics：Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW（CW DFB 激光器）-> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics。我个人最初其实是因为4D AI而看好Aeva的。偶然发现Sivers是他们4D FMCW激光雷达的高置信度激光供应商。所以你实际上可以在光子学领域获得机器人曝光，而用于超大规模数据中心AI的同款CW激光器也在使用。虽然近期收入增长可能是$SIVE通过Aeva为$NVDA自动驾驶汽车相关架构供应激光器批量增长。人形机器人可能要到2028年？你总能得到更多间接曝光，比如MU的内存或$INTC的边缘CPU，但当然也有更直接的曝光方式。我觉得之前已经覆盖过很多名字了，比如$VPG或Harmonic Drive。但可笑的是，CPO玩家如$SIVE其实是前沿物理AI开发的核心部分。
英文原文
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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列出2026下半年四大做多主题：CPO、800VDC功率半导体、物理AI机器人、玻璃基板/先进封装。
如果你想找多头想法，2026年下半年有四个关键主题： 1. CPO，我最喜欢的主题，没有之一。我无法强调市场对它有多误解。 我在硅谷聊过的每个人现在都在私下资助光学初创公司，这是未来的重大信号。 2. 800VDC 功率半导体。我认为其他分析师某种程度上说服了我。 我曾小仓位持有 $NVTS，但令我惊讶的是它几乎翻倍了。进一步研究后，这在“哪些玩家变重要”上是一次相当剧烈的转变。 3. 物理 AI、人形机器人/机器人。你知道 $VPG 基本涨了三倍，我一直在找其他可做多玩家。 最有意思的下游多在私营部门，然后零部件主要在中国/日本。 4. 也许玻璃基板/先进封装仍然有机会，例如 $LPK。由于很多存储玩家最近已经重估，存储在列表中往后排了，不过小众 HBM4 玩家仍有很多机会。
英文原文
Four critical themes for h2 2026 if you want long ideas: 1. CPO, #1 #1 #1 #1 favorite theme. I cannot stress how much markets misunderstand this. Everyone I've talked in SV are privately funding optical startups right now and it's a big signal of what's to come. 2. 800 VDC power semis. I think other analysts kinda convinced me on this. I was in $NVTS for a tiny bit, low concentration. But this almost doubled to my surprise. But after doing more research, it's a pretty seismic shift in terms of what players become important 3. Physical AI Humanoids/Robotics. As you know $VPG basically tripled, and there's a lot of other players I've been trying to find longs on. Most downstream of interest are private sector... Then components are mainly in China/Japan. 4. Maybe Glass Substrate / advanced packaging stuff still eg. $LPK. Memory got pushed down on the list given how much players have re-rated recently, lot of opportunity still with niche hbm4 players.
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众包800VDC功率半导体十倍股。
好了大家，来众包你们在功率半导体交易中最高信念、只看10倍潜力的多头股票。 尤其考虑到 $NVDA 正推动转向 800VDC。 类似 $NVTS 或 $WOLF，但只要高 beta、10倍潜力，全球范围都可以。 你选什么？
英文原文
All right chat, crowdsourcing your #1 highest conviction (10x only) stock long for the Power Semi trade. Especially given $NVDA pushing shift to 800 VDC. Stuff like $NVTS or $WOLF, but high-beta, 10x potential only. Anywhere around the world. What's your pick? https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC
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分享周末研究的热管理和功率半导体供应链主题股票清单
随便分享一些我周末研究的随机主题： -> 功率半导体、集成电压调节器、多相控制器、CDU、冷板、歧管、泵、阀门、热交换器、背门系统、冷水机。 $POWL、$NVT、010120 KS、267260 KS、2308 TT、$VICR、$POWI、宁德时代、阳光电源 300274 C -> 热管理相关（ALFA SS、ASTK DC、大金 6367 JP）、$CARR、MTRS SS） 这些只是我之前聊过的之外的一些，比如 $NVTS 或 $HPS.A。 它们都有点已经被定价了，但现在是个好的起点，可以帮你找到那些还没被定价的更重要玩家。 然后你会问：这些产品最有可能依赖哪一家公司？ 我个人对能源/散热/电力这个交易领域不太熟悉，我很高兴承认这一点，因为一切都是学习的过程。 但通常即使我发现了一些有趣的东西，我也觉得它不如继续持有CPO多头更有说服力。学习更多总是很有趣的。 一直在寻找SRAM相关的敞口，我觉得私募市场比 $CBRS 更好。
英文原文
Just random themes im looking im having a good time looking into over the weekend: -> power semis, integrated voltage regulators, multiphase controllers, CDUs, cold plates, manifolds, pumps, valves, heat exchangers, rear-door systems, chillers. $POWL, $NVT, 010120 KS, 267260 KS, 2308 TT, $VICR, $POWI , CATL, Sungrow 300274 C -> thermal stuff (ALFA SS, ASTK DC, Daikin 6367 JP), $CARR, MTRS SS) These are just ones aside from the ones I've talked about eg. $NVTS or $HPS.A. They're all kinda more priced in but now but it's a good starting point in terms of finding more important players that's not priced in. Then you try and look: which single company do most of these probably rely on? I'm personally less familiar with the energy/cooling/power trade, which I'm happy to admit since everything is a learning process. But normally even if I find something interesting, i don't find it more compelling than staying in CPO longs. Always it's always fun learning more. Was always looking for SRAM-adjacent exposure, think private markets are better to go then $CBRS?
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中文：感谢中文粉丝阅读，称两天涨近三万粉。
哪里的事，应该是我谢谢你们愿意花时间看我的内容！ 最近涨了这么多中文粉丝，我真的特别开心。感觉这两天差不多就涨了快三万粉？ 原来 X 上的中文圈比我想象的要大得多啊！感觉以后多跟大家互动、交流想法，肯定会特别有意思。
英文原文
哪里的话，应该是我谢谢你们愿意花时间看我的内容！ 最近涨了这么多中文粉丝，我真的特别开心。感觉这两天差不多就涨了快三万粉？ 原来 X 上的中文圈比我想象的要大得多啊！感觉以后多跟大家互动、交流交流想法，肯定会特别有意思。
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称不会卖SIVE，认为是代际级多头，受益于客户、TAM、Ayar护城河、CHIPS和指数流入。
我一股 $SIVE 都不会卖。 我个人认为这是代际级多头，因为它已经进入了这么多超大云厂商供应商体系。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔和 CPO 的极端 TAM 扩张预测。 如果你到现在还没读 $JBL 炉边谈话记录，它已经验证了需求和时间线；或者 Ayar 从网站上移除 Lumentum 和 Macom 作为激光供应商，验证了护城河；或者 CHIPS Act 资金验证了技术重要性；或者管理层在我看来字面上做对了所有事情，通过 NASDAQ 上市转向并购重点，验证前瞻增长愿景。 当前估值下，上行太有吸引力。 机构也几乎还没进入……而下个月我们将看到来自 Nasdaq、BlackRock、MSCI 指数的数千万美元长期被动新资金流入。
英文原文
I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.
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批评用ChatGPT会错过不同激光架构的细节。
回复 @ShortsHoward：这正是我说用 ChatGPT 会让你错过细节的意思： 它们字面上是不同架构。 用大模型把 $LITE 单个高功率激光器，和多通道阵列中的一个通道输出比较的人，根本不知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward So this is exactly what I mean by using ChatGPT will make you miss the nuances: They're literally different architectures. People using LLMs to compare $LITE single high power laser to one of the channel's outputs in a multi-channel array don't what they're talking about.
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复盘AXTI和InP衬底从15美元被质疑到成为分析师报告瓶颈。
回复 @doomdayer：谢谢！是的，当 $AXTI 和 InP 衬底还在15美元时，和那些毫无知识的随机散户争论总是很有趣。 然后它现在刚好出现在你们所有高盛/摩根大通分析师报告里，被列为瓶颈。
英文原文
@doomdayer Thanks! Yeah always fun to have those argument with $AXTI + inp substrates back at $15 with all your random retail investors who have 0 knowledge. Then it just happens to show up in all your Goldman Sachs/JPM analyst reports today as a bottleneck.
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AAOI拥有800G/1.6T端到端制造规模，美国制造和税收抵免应带来溢价。
是的，$AAOI 拥有 800G/1.6T 光收发器的端到端制造规模，而现在超大云厂商会买下 $AAOI 或光学玩家能生产的任何东西。 它们试图全部在美国完成，并获得税收抵免（例如德州），这应该给它溢价。 只是6亿美元稀释影响近期价格有点烦。
英文原文
Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make. The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums. Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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认为伊朗战争将结束，宏观改善会利好此前受油价拖累的欧洲/台湾/韩国股票。
好吧，看起来伊朗战争快要结束了。 市场/指数周一大概率会这样走。 对因油价担忧被拖累更多的欧洲/台湾/韩国股票来说，可能甚至更好。 如果某个东西在这段时间还能上涨……在更好的宏观环境下可能会涨得更高。
英文原文
Well, looks like Iran War is about to end. Markets/Indexes are probably going like this Monday. Probably even better for Europe/Taiwan/Korean equities that were dragged down more from oil fears. If something goes up during this time… probably goes higher in better macro. https://t.co/kZQ5r0IzZd
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批评X订阅计划收费和分成不透明。
我喜欢 Elon，但他可能还不知道，X 订阅者计划是我用过最可疑的东西之一…… -> 存在未知货币四舍五入（很多时候订阅价格高出2倍以上），而 X 无法说明谁从中获利。 -> 月度付款总是被推迟好几天，而不是实际的一个月周期。 -> X 会把此前余额扣留1个月以上（他们可以声称是风险控制，但其实就是放在那里收利息）。 通常 X 推崇透明，但涉及收入收取时，就是一个黑箱，很多费用消失在虚空里。
英文原文
I like Elon, but he probably doesn't know yet that the X Subscriber program is one of the shadiest things I've ever used... -> There's unknown currency rounding (lot of times 2x+ more sub price), where X is unable to say where who profits off that. -> Monthly payouts keep getting pushed back by multiple days instead of actual 1 month cycles. -> X does things like holds previous balances for 1M+ (they can claim risk, but it's just sitting collecting interest). Usually X pushes for transparency, but when it comes to collecting revenue, just a black box where lot of fees disappear into the void.
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感谢中国支持。
回复 @Stevensun520417：感谢你在中国那边的支持。
英文原文
@Stevensun520417 Thank you for the support over in China.
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称创作者几乎看不到订阅收入去向透明度。
其实不多。创作者几乎看不到钱实际流向哪里。 有很多四舍五入，人们支付接近2倍的价格，多出来的钱消失在虚空里。 不知道 X 拿了多少，或实际收取什么费用，尽管他们总是引用信任与安全。 不过我不是为了订阅费来的，更多是为了数字。
英文原文
Not much actually. Close to 0 transparency to creators over where things actually go. There's a lot of rounding where people are paying close to 2x more, which disappears into the void. Don't know how much X takes or what fees they actually charge, even though they cite T&S all the time. Not here for sub fees tho, more for #.
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付费订阅达到3万，距离X第一还差1.7万。
哇，我已经达到3万付费订阅者。 感谢大家！正在追赶埃隆·马斯克。 还差1.7万…… 然后我就能实现成为整个 X 平台第一的目标！
英文原文
Wow, I've reached 30,000 paid subscribers. Thank you everyone! Catching up to Elon Musk. Only 17,000 more to go... Then I reach my goal of becoming #1 on the entire X platform! https://t.co/TStifVRgG9
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认为观点和市场验证比净资产更重要，触怒卖课/付费墙网红。
我喜欢指出“想法和市场百分比验证比净资产更重要”这件事。 这触怒了所有“相信我，我很有钱”的骗子，他们卖昂贵付费墙或课程。 如果旧模式感到受威胁，说明散户开始醒来了，这是好事。
英文原文
I love how pointing out that ideas and market percentage validation. Matter more than net worth. Triggered all the “trust me I’m rich” grifters selling expensive paywalls or courses. It’s good retail is starting to wake up if the older models feel threatened.