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看好盘后回调的SEI和FLNC，信任他人对EOSE的研究。
@DigestingX $SEI 盘后下跌 6.7% 的跌幅可能是最好的。我也看好 $FLNC。 $EOSE 我了解不多，我只是信任他人的深度研究(DD)。
英文原文
@DigestingX $SEI is probably the best on the 6.7% drop after hours. I like $FLNC too. $EOSE idk much about yet, I'm just trusting the DD of others.
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计划定投并等待23日财报验证投资论点
@iPheNoX9 是的，我会进行成本平均(Cost Average)。除了近期至中期上升趋势中波动率降低之外，我真的无法理解这次下跌。 散户交易量应该会大幅上升。 等到23日发布财报时，我会让我的投资论点接受市场的检验。
英文原文
@iPheNoX9 Yeah I’ll cost average. Genuinely don’t understand the drop aside from near-mid term uptrend with lower volatility Retail trading volumes should be up a ton. I’ll try my thesis against the market when they release earnings on the 23rd.
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博主自嘲投资决策纯属随机掷骰子。
@Neat_Lama 哈哈，我只是掷了个骰子，没什么值得骄傲的。
英文原文
@Neat_Lama lol I just rolled a dice, nothing to be proud of.
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确认盘后交易情况。
@itsthesquonky 是的，盘后。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky Yeah after hours
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新云厂商当前适合卖出看跌期权。
@a_do120 任何新云厂商目前都是理想的卖出看跌期权标的。
英文原文
@a_do120 Any neocloud is ideal for put selling right now
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修正论点：$VIRT在波动中盈利且被低估，具对冲价值。
你说得对，两者并非1:1相关，我本应更清晰地指出其中的细微差别。所以正确的表述是：$VIRT 在波动率持续扩大的时期（当波动率指数(VIX)走高时)非常盈利，且市场最终会对此进行定价。 因此，在波动性下跌行情中，$VIRT 表现更佳，目前被低估，并起到对冲作用，这正是我的投资论点。 我确信市场错了，即使 VIX 不高，从 Robinhood 的数据来看，散户交易活动依然强劲。（$VIRT 处理约 25% 的散户资金流），其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)真的很低。
英文原文
You’re right it’s not 1:1 correlated, I should have done better at pointing out the nuance. So the correct way phrase is $VIRT is very profitable in extended periods of volatility (when VIX is elevated) and it gets priced in the eventually. So in a volatile downturn, $VIRT performs better, is currently undervalued, and serves as a hedge, which was my thesis. I’m convinced market is wrong even if VIX isn’t high, retail trading activity is strong if you look at Robinhood’s data. ($VIRT handles ~25% of retail flows), forward p/e is really low.
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强烈建议买入NBIS，因其市值下上行潜力巨大且收入预期惊人。
@_visionarius 两者都是强力买入标的，尤其是 $NBIS，考虑到其当前市值下非对称的上行潜力。他们的前瞻性收入数据简直令人难以置信地惊人。
英文原文
@_visionarius Both are strong buys, $NBIS especially given their asymmetrical upside at this marketcap. Their forward revenue is hilariously mind blowing.
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博主解释交易生物科技股仅为博弈低浮筹，非核心专业领域。
@juremyu 我在长文中写了更多深度研究(DD)，我不想冒早盘稀释的风险。生物科技(Biotech)板块本质上具有极高的波动性和风险，我只是想交易低浮筹(low float)股票。此外，这也不是我的专业领域，否则如果我真的看好，我会投入100万美元。
英文原文
@juremyu I wrote more DD in the thread, I don’t want to take the risk of dilution in the morning. Biotech stuff is inherently extremely volatile and risky, but I just wanted to trade the low float. Also not my domain expertise otherwise I’d put in $1M if I really believed in it.
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博主分享在SPRB上2小时获利3.7万美元并部分止盈的经历。
我无语了……在 $SPRB 上2小时内赚了+$37K（已实现+$21K）。最终我止盈了大部分仓位。 对我来说这不算多，但鉴于如此短的时间框架，我觉得这很有趣，只是没人可以分享。 我会持有价值$30k的仓位看看后续走势。https://t.co/ywK3ozncPA
英文原文
I have no words… +$37K on $SPRB in 2 hours ($21K realized). Ended up taking profit on most. It’s not much to me but I just find this amusing given the short timeframe and had nobody to share it with. I’ll hold $30k worth to see where it goes. https://t.co/ywK3ozncPA
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分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
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博主回顾加密资产历史预测并披露当前持仓。
@MqwantyMqwanty 我在比特币($BTC)首次冲向$124k之前，于$106k给出了目标价。随后在以太坊($ETH)冲向$4k之前，于$1.6k给出了目标价。 我目前仍持有比特币多头，没有以太坊头寸，并在$113做多莱特币($LTC)。 这些内容发布在我的Reddit上而非X，我最近才加入这里。
英文原文
@MqwantyMqwanty I gave $BTC at $106k before the first run to $124. Then $ETH at $1.6k before the runup to $4k. I’m still long bitcoin, no eth postions, long $LTC at $113 They were posted on my Reddit instead of X, I just joined here recently
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博主解释因对加密货币更感兴趣而转向该领域。
@MqwantyMqwanty 我只是碰巧对加密货币/金融科技比人工智能更感兴趣。与深度学习相比，比特币和法定货币对我来说是更有趣的话题，所以我最终追随了自己的热情。
英文原文
@MqwantyMqwanty I just happened to be more interested in crypto/fintech than AI. Bitcoin and fiat currencies were just such an interesting topic of interest to me compared to deep learning, so I ended up following my passion.
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博主澄清自己直接入职工业界，并提及在AI领域的贡献。
@MqwantyMqwanty 不，我最终直接进入了工业界。 不过，在我身处人工智能(AI)领域期间，我确实为卷积神经网络(CNNs)做出了相当多的贡献。
英文原文
@MqwantyMqwanty Nope, ended up going straight to industry. I did contribute a decent amount to covnets while I was in the AI space though.
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分析SPRB估值与稀释风险，虽短期或涨至$500，但不建议长期持有。
TLDR：如果没有稀释，仅因TA-ERT催化剂，股价可能暂时涨至$500。但这在稀释日如同玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。 我花更多时间研究了细节： $SPRB 的合理市值约为1.5亿-2亿美元（目前8500万）。原帖作者声称目标价$500，若公司不稀释则合理。 然而： 截至2025年6月30日，SPRB现金等价物仅1640万美元，鉴于现金余额低，通过增发新股进行稀释似乎不可避免。股价上涨源于低流通盘+利好消息（无16%这样的空头头寸，故非空头挤压）。 增发新股+稀释后（市值1.5亿-2亿美元可能使股价回归~$50-75），若计入稀释，我不认为能看到$500的目标价。 我们可能会因流通盘有限看到另一波100%+的上涨冲向$500（就像$BULL因低流通盘涨至600亿市值那样），但由于随机日期的稀释如同俄罗斯轮盘赌，我不建议长期持有。 无论如何，我喜欢玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。欢迎任何反驳观点。
英文原文
TLDR: Might go up to $500 temporary strike if there's no dilution just because of TA-ERT catalyst. But it's playing Russian Roulette on dilution days. So had some more time to look into things: Fair value $SPRB market cap is = ~$150–200m. ($85M now). In OP's post they claimed $500 PT, which is fair if company doesn't dilute. However: SPRB has $16.4M in cash equivalents, June 30, 2025, dilution with new shares seems inevitable just because of low cahs balance. Price rise was due to low float + good news (there's no short interest like .16% so not a short squeeze) After issuing new shares + dilution (Market cap at $150m-$200m might normalize share price to ~$50-75), don't really see the $500 figure if dilution is included. We might see another 100%+ runup just because of limited float toward that $500 mark (like how $BULL ran to a $60B MC off low float), but I would be against holding it long term because of russian roulette dilution on a random day. Either way, I like playing Russian Roulette. Welcome any counterpoints
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作者因SMCI入标普500后遭SEC调查而心有余悸。
@rocket5010 我对超微电脑($SMCI)有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，因为它们在进入标普500指数后遭到了美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的调查。
英文原文
@rocket5010 I have PTSD from $SMCI when they got into the S&P 500 then had a SEC investigation.
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RKLB虽为高信念持仓，但因高估决定停止交易并持有。
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB 是我过去5年中信念最强的股票，但说实话，它确实被严重高估了。我刚刚学会不再交易它，而是持有。
英文原文
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB is my highest conviction stock over 5 years but it's really overvalued tbh. I just learned to not trade this anymore and hold.
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博主说明自身在AI、半导体及加密领域的专业背景，明确能力圈范围。
@MqwantyMqwanty 金融科技(Fintech)、加密货币(Crypto)、人工智能(AI)。 我在加密货币、半导体以及人工智能领域（例如软件、科技等相关领域）拥有一些专利/论文，因此我对这些领域有足够的了解，可以给出方向性的观点。 至于生物技术、建筑、房地产、农业等之外的领域，我就不太了解了。
英文原文
@MqwantyMqwanty Fintech, Crypto, AI. I have some patents/papers in crypto, semiconductors, + AI space so related areas (eg. software, tech) I know enough to give directional opinions. Stuff outside like biotech, construction, real estate, agriculture, etc. I wouldn't know well.
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不盲从权威，需详查目标价背后的逻辑与计算。
@dubiousnoob @tr90605549 我不是那种盲目追随领域权威的人，我想了解更多关于思维过程+数值计算的细节，以便对目标价格(price targets)感到安心。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob @tr90605549 I’m not the type of person to blindly follow domain authority, I’d like to learn more details on the thought process + numerical calculations to have a peace of mind about price targets
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博主澄清仅众包收集SPRB信息，非发表观点，自称不懂生物技术。
@tr90605549 我只是想通过众包方式收集关于 $SPRB 的信息以深入学习，并非要分享方向性观点。我对生物技术(biotech)领域真的完全不了解。
英文原文
@tr90605549 Oh I’m just trying to crowdsource information on $SPRB to learn more, not share a directional opinion. I genuinely have zero clue about biotech.
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分析SPRB酶替代疗法获批后的市值潜力，自曝买入并求教。
在 @MartinShkreli 发帖后，我查看了 $SPRB，它涉及 TA-ERT（酶替代疗法），属于突破性疗法。 粗略估算，如果 SPRB 的 TA-ERT 获批并长期占据 10-15% 的市场份额（对应 1.8 亿-2.7 亿美元 ARR），基于 14 亿美元的美国市场... 通过 2-3 倍营收计算，当前合理的公允价值可能在 2.8 亿-6.3 亿美元市值之间。 当然，从临床试验失败、商业化到稀释风险都很大，但 8500 万美元的市值看起来很有潜力？ （披露：我买了 5 万美元，纯粹作为高风险博弈） 显然我不是生物技术专家，这超出了我的专业领域，所以我想看看是否有其他领域专家能提供反馈或指出红旗警示。
英文原文
I was looking at $SPRB after @MartinShkreli posted about it and it’s TA-ERT, breakthrough enzyme therapy replacement. Just from a quick search if SPRB’s TA-ERT is approved and they capture 10-15% market share longer term ($180–$270M ARR) of $1.4B US market... Realistic fair value today could be ~$280m-630m MC from 2-3x rev calculations. Obviously there’s a lot of risk from clinical failures, commercialization, to dilution but a $85M market cap looks promising? (disclosure I bought $50k worth just as a high risk gamble) Obviously I’m not an expert in biotech and this is outside my domain, which is why I wanted to see if anyone else with any domain knowledge had feedback or red flags.
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祝贺粉丝并约定达成十万目标后再庆祝。
@Crypto_LogicD @Sandeman52 @sunxliao @babyfolio 太棒了！等你达到 $100k 时我们再庆祝。
英文原文
@Crypto_LogicD @Sandeman52 @sunxliao @babyfolio Nice! Let’s celebrate again when you hit $100k.
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Snap转向盈利举措被视为基本面催化剂。
@rioferdy838 从基本面来看，$SNAP 此前毫无亮点，因为他们一直专注于增强现实(AR)和眼镜。这类举措能让他们真正实现盈利，因此这一转变确实是一个催化剂。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 Fundamentally $SNAP had nothing going for it earlier because they kept focusing on AR and glasses. Stuff like that makes them actually profitable like this move is an actual catalyst.
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建议优先选其他股，但认为Snapchat估值应上调至10美元以上。
@cmachdop 谢谢，我想借此开个玩笑，因为这是 $SNAP 从第一天起就该做的更新。我仍然建议优先选择其他股票而非 Snapchat，但在我看来，它确实值得重新评级至 10 美元以上。
英文原文
@cmachdop Thanks, thought I'd have some fun with this since it's an update $SNAP needed to do from day 1. Would still recommend other stocks over Snapchat still but it does deserve a re-rating to $10+ imo
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Snap内存变现尚需一年，市场或待确认后再定价。
@fossinvest 我完全支持鼓励更多新贡献者分享非付费墙的深度研究(DD)。感谢发帖。 唯一的缺点是 Snap 的内存货币化(内存变现)实质性落地还需一年时间。市场通常具有前瞻性，但可能会等待更多确认信号，才会将其完全计入定价。
英文原文
@fossinvest I'm all for encouraging more non-paywalled DD from newer contributors when I can. Thanks for posting. Only downside is Snap's memory monetization is 1 year out materially. Markets are usually forward looking, but may wait for more confirmation before fully pricing it in
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对比各平台付费率，认为Snap 2%转化率合理且用户有付费意愿。
@whyp3rk 我对 $SNAP 使用了 2% 作为合理的估算值。 Dropbox 约 2.6% 是付费用户，Notion 为 4%，Google 约为 10-15%，iCloud 曾达到 60%。 我个人大概会愿意付费让 Snap 不要删除我的高中回忆 lol。每次只能迁移 100 张太烦人了。
英文原文
@whyp3rk I used 2% as a fair estimate for $SNAP. Dropbox ~2.6% are paid users, Notion 4%, Google 10-15%-ish, ICloud was 60%. I'd probably personally pay for Snap to not delete my high school memories lol. It's too annoying to migrate out 100 at a time.
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虽厌恶$SNAP，但鉴于降本增效未定价，建议买入。
@robswainept 我依然从心底讨厌 $SNAP，宁愿选择其他股票。但从数据来看，最新更新大幅降低了运营支出(OpEx)并增加了营收，显然市场尚未对此进行定价。虽然目前还为时过早，但大概率为买入(Buy)。
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@robswainept I still hate $SNAP from the bottom of my heart and would prefer other stocks any day of the week. But numbers wise, the new update reduces OpEx by a ton and increases revenue, but clearly hasn't been priced in yet. Obviously a bit early, so probably just a Buy.
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Snapchat通过存储变现降本增效，预计FCF大增，估值有望重估。
Snapchat 投资论点：一只被看空的股票如何重估为买入。 $SNAP 完成了关键转折，将其最大支出项转变为收入来源。 与 $META、$RDDT 相比，SNAP 要实现增长需要做两件事。 而……Snapchat 终于做到了其中一件。 那就是： 1. 变现“回忆”（存储）——潜在 50%+ 的上涨空间。 2. 通过公开 Web 应用 + TikTok 式信息流与 TikTok 竞争（1000%+ 上涨空间） Snapchat 终于通过第 1 点完成了转折，将其最大的运营支出 (OPEX) 变成了收入来源：他们实现了存储变现并删除了浪费的存储。 Snap 每季度收入 13.5 亿美元，且以健康速度增长，拥有 10 亿+ 月活跃用户 (MAU)。尽管收入数字庞大，但他们并未盈利。为什么？ 因为像我这样无数人存储了 10 年前拍摄的 GB 级视频。Snapchat 一直在免费支付 Google Cloud 来存储所有这些内容。Google Cloud 的成本每个季度都严重侵蚀其净利润。 因此，随着这一最新变化——向用户收费（类似 iCloud）以获取存储，这是一个巨大的新收入来源， 同时在大幅降低运营支出 (OpEx) 的基础上，Snapchat 刚刚获得了重估。 _云成本细分_ Snap 的云基础设施是其最大成本之一，历史上每年超过 24 亿美元（收入成本）。 其中大部分是“回忆”和视频等功能的存储 + 带宽。 回忆 + 视频档案 ≈ 云支出的 35-40%（估算） ~90% 的用户在 5GB 限额以下（无成本变化），但 10% 的重度用户持有大部分存储数据 _如果 Snap 删除 ~50% 的现有存储数据（非付费用户的旧视频/照片）_ 结果： 24 亿美元的 40% = 9.6 亿美元与回忆相关的云成本基线 重度用户存储减少 50% ~ 4.8 亿美元节省（激进估算） 考虑到数据迁移、部分重新分配、杂项： -> Snap 可能 realistically 实现其中的 ~40%，即每年节省 ~1.8-2 亿美元运营支出 (OPEX) 这直接转化为营业利润 + 自由现金流 (FCF)，因为这是纯粹的成本削减。 _付费存储收入（小用户群场景）_ 假设只有少量用户付费——远低于 iCloud 的 60% 采用率： MAU：~9 亿，付费用户：2%（~1800 万） 平均计划：2.49 美元/月（大多数在 1.99 或 3.99 美元层级） 每用户平均收入 (ARPU)：~30 美元/年 收入 = 1800 万 × 30 美元 = 每年 5.4 亿美元 减去 ~1 亿美元托管费 -> 4.4 亿美元净收入 这笔收入是经常性、高毛利的，并直接增加 FCF。 _预计年度综合影响：_ 运营支出节省（云）= +1.9 亿美元 付费存储收入 = +5.4 亿美元 存储成本 (COGS) = –1 亿美元 净 FCF 改善 = +6.3 亿美元 _估值重估_ 如果市场基于 ~8.5 亿美元可持续 FCF 对 Snap 进行重估： 应用 35 倍 EV/FCF 倍数（适用于利润率改善的成长型科技公司） EV ≈ 300 亿美元 → 市值 ≈ 310-330 亿美元 激进倍数 FCF 估算 8.5 亿美元 市值 25 倍 × 212.5 亿美元 EV ~ 220-230 亿美元市值（~13-14 美元/股） 30 倍 × 255 亿美元 EV ~ 260 亿美元市值（~15-16 美元/股） 35 倍 × 297.5 亿美元 EV ~ 310-320 亿美元市值（~19-20 美元/股） 从今天的 ~8.50 美元 -> 潜在 +50-100%+ 上涨空间，在 12-18 个月内，假设： - 执行顺利（无重大用户反弹，但我真的不认为用户会离开。）我个人会付费，因为我 5-10 年前用过 Snap，但不希望我的数据被删除。 - 3 次美联储降息压缩贴现率 - 投资者认可远期 FCF 当然，所有这一切都要在 1 年后才会发生。此外，我基于很多假设，例如 2% 的用户会付费（如 Dropbox），而 iCloud 有 60% 的用户。 _只是想给 @fossinvest 打个招呼，这是我做尽职调查 (DD) 时发现的一个小账号。他们也做了计算，但使用了更激进的算法 + 类似的想法，我要感谢他们提供的图片。 我可能在推测数字时出错（例如 1-1.5 亿美元运营支出，1% 的付费用户，但即使这样 FCF 也会得到巨大提升）。 无论如何，这是 SNAP 历史上在收入生成和运营支出削减方面做出的最大实质性改变，理应获得重估。 市场和对冲基金现在开始将其定价，因为他们是前瞻性的，但消化这一消息需要一些时间。
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The Snapchat Thesis: How a 🐶💩 Stock Re-Rated from Sell to Buy. $SNAP flipped the switch, making their biggest expense a revenue stream. There's two things that SNAP needed to do to grow vs. $META, $RDDT. and... Snapchat finally did it, well one of two. That is: 1. Monetize Memories (Storage) - potential 50%%+ upside. 2. Compete vs Tiktok with a public web app + Tiktok-style feed (1000%+ upside) Snapchat finally flipped the switch with #1 and made their biggest OPEX expense a revenue stream: They monetized storage and deleted wasteful storage. _ Snap brings in $1.35B revenue a quarter and is growing at healthy rates with 1B+ MAU. Despite large revenue numbers, they're not profitable. Why? Because countless people like myself have stored GBs of videos taken from 10 years ago. Snapchat has been paying Google Cloud to store all of that for free. Google Cloud costs just eats so much into its net profits every quarter. So with this recent change - charging users (like iCloud) for storage, which is a huge new revenue stream, On top of reducing OpEx by a massive margin, Snapchat just got a rerating. _ Cloud Cost Breakdown Snap’s cloud infrastructure is one of its largest costs, historically over $2.4B annually (cost of revenue). Most of that is storage + bandwidth for features like Memories and videos. Memories + video archives ≈ 35-40% of cloud spend (estimates) ~90% of users under the 5GB cap (no cost change), but 10% heavy users hold the majority of stored data _ If Snap deletes ~50% of existing stored data (non-paying users’ old videos/photos) Result: 40% of $2.4B = $960M cloud cost baseline tied to Memories 50% reduction in heavy-user storage ~ $480M savings (aggressive est.) After accounting for data migration, partial reallocation, misc: -> Snap may realistically realize ~40% of that, or ~$180–200M OPEX saved annually This goes straight to operating profit + FCF, since it’s a pure cost cut. _ Revenue from Paid Storage (Small User Base Scenario) Assuming a small number of users pay-far less than iCloud’s 60% adoption: MAU: ~900 million, Paying users: 2% (~18 million) Average plan: $2.49/month (most on $1.99 or $3.99 tiers) ARPU: ~$30/year Revenue = 18M × $30 = $540M per year Subtract ~$100M in hosting -> $440M net This revenue is recurring, high-margin, and adds directly to FCF. _ Estimated Combined Annual Impact: OPEX savings (cloud) = +$190M Paid storage revenue= +$540M Storage costs (COGS) = –$100M Net FCF improvement= +$630M _ Valuation Rerating If the market rerates Snap based on ~$850M sustainable FCF: Apply a 35× EV/FCF multiple (typical for growth tech with improving margins) EV ≈ $30B → Market cap ≈ $31–33B Aggressive Multiple FCF est. $850M _ Market Cap 25 × $21.25B EV ~ $22–23B mc (~$13–14/share) 30 x $25.5B EV ~ $26B mc (~$15–16/share) 35 x $29.75B EV ~ $31–32B mc (~$19–20/share) From ~$8.50 today -> potential +50–100%+ upside within 12–18 months, assuming: - Execution is smooth (no major user backlash, but really don't think users would quit.) Personally I'd just pay for it since I used Snap 5-10 years ago but don't want my data deleted. - 3 Fed rate cuts compress discount rates - Investors credit forward FCF Of course, all of this only happens 1 year from now. Also, I'm going off a lot of assumptions, such as 2% of users will pay (eg. Dropbox), vs. ICloud has 60% of users. _ Just thought I'd give a shoutout to @fossinvest, a small account I found while doing DD. They also did the math but used more aggressive calculations + similar idea, I'll give them credit for the image. _ I could be wrong with speculating the numbers (eg. $100-150M opex, and 1% paying users, but even with this FCF gets a huge boost). Either way, this is the largest material change SNAP has made for both revenue generation and operational expense cuts in history and it deserves a re-rating after. Market and hedge funds will now start to price this in since they're forward looking, but will take some time to digest the news.
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交易对英伟达系利空，对AMD等供应链其他环节利好。
@yield_addicted 关于这笔交易，我认为总体偏负面：$NVDA、$CRWV（以英伟达为中心）。 总体偏正面（几乎其他所有标的）：$AMD、NBIS、CIFR、IREN、TSM 等。 护城河叙事逻辑发生变化，导致下跌 2.5% 是合理的。
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@yield_addicted For the deal, I'd say net negative: $NVDA, $CRWV (Nvda centric) Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD, NBIS, CIFR, IREN, TSM, etc. The 2.5% drop makes sense off moat narrative changes.
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感谢分享，正研究他股，稍后关注美光。
@Deenobrown123 @kermankohli 是的，感谢这篇分析文章。目前我正在对另一家公司进行深入研究，以便明天发布一篇投资论点(Thesis)帖子，之后我会再看 $MU。
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@Deenobrown123 @kermankohli Yeah thanks for the write up. Right now I’m doing a deep dive into another company right now for a thesis post tomorrow but will look at $MU next
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作者分享交易策略：低IV或暴跌时做期权，短线多股现货交易。
@DappSpecialist 我基本上什么都做，但主要只在隐含波动率(IV) <32 或市场暴跌时才接触期权。通常我会在短时间内同时交易多只股票的现货，而不是持有1年以上。
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@DappSpecialist I kind of do everything, but mainly touch options only if IV <32 or on doom drops. Normally I do shares on many different stocks at once in short timeframes rather than holding 1Y+.