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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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建议持有HOOD，指出其界面友好且大单成交更透明。
@cmachdop 那么继续持有 $HOOD 没问题！在较大交易量下，订单成交的“挑拣”（Cherry picking with fills）现象通常会更明显。此外，Robinhood 确实非常用户友好，相比之下，查看其他经纪商的期权链（option chains）会显得相当令人困惑。
英文原文
@cmachdop Sticking with $HOOD is fine then! Cherry picking with fills usually is a lot more apparent at larger sizes. Also Robinhood is really user friendly, looking at option chains on other brokerages gets pretty confusing in comparison.
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根据交易策略和标的波动性选择券商平台
我在盈透证券(IBKR)之外也使用Robinhood和Charles Schwab。使用多个平台没问题。 但如果你大量交易期权，建议转向$IBKR或Fidelity，因为两者的执行质量极佳。在波动性更高的情况下，$IBKR可能略胜Fidelity。 不过情况很微妙。如果买卖价差很低（如$MSFT或$SPY），$HOOD优于其他平台，你实际上能省钱。 如果你在$CIFR或高隐含波动率(IV)股票上卖出期权，价差通常大得多，仅因糟糕的成交执行（例如交易6万美元期权）就可能损失数千美元，此时你最好从$HOOD转移。 如果是长期投资且不加杠杆，平台选择其实无所谓。如果是长期投资且使用股票保证金，$IBKR或Robinhood很棒，因为保证金利率较低，而Schwab/Fidelity较高。 总之，这取决于你的具体目标和持仓股票，情况相当微妙。
英文原文
I use Robinhood and Charles Schwab too on top of IBKR. It's fine to use multiple. But if you're doing a ton of options it's worth going to $IBKR or Fidelity since both of them have great execution. IBKR probably tops out Fidelity when it comes to more volatility. It's nuanced though. $HOOD beats other platforms if the spread is low like $MSFT or $SPY and you'll actually save money. If you're selling options on $CIFR or higher IV stocks, the spread is likely to be much much higher and you can lose thousands of dollars (if you trade with $60k in options for example) just based on bad fills and completely you're better off moving from $HOOD. If you're long term investing, no margin, doesn't really matter what platform you go. If you're long term investing margin with shares, IBKR or Robinhood are great cause margin rates are low, while Schwab/Fidelity are higher. Again it's kinda nuanced depending on what exactly you're aiming to do, what stocks you have.
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强调HPC矿企执行风险与利润率，解释为何选择$NBIS。
再次强调，这并非针对 $BITF 或 $CLSK 等矿企的看空帖子。我在主题上对 Neoclouds 极度看好，并对 $WULF 或 $IREN 等特定矿企持看涨态度。但喜欢它们并不意味着我应该持有所有相关标的。 这是一篇关于执行风险和选择性的细致分析，因为并非每家从事高性能计算(HPC)的矿企/公司都能成功。 我特别指的是在规模化时的利润率，涉及的是 HPC 业务板块，而非比特币(BTC)挖矿或储备（如果你了解我的历史，知道我对后者也极度看好）。 除了解释我个人为何选择 $NBIS 外，我并不支持或反对任何特定的矿企。我相信该领域还会有像 $WULF 这样的其他赢家。 我只是在强调执行风险，并指出人们看待这些公司的视角（关注兆瓦级建设而非考虑利润率）可能是错误的。
英文原文
Again this is not a bear post on miners like $BITF or $CLSK. I am omega bullish thematically on Neoclouds and bullish on certain miners like $WULF or $IREN. Just because I like them doesn't mean I should own them all. This is a nuanced post on execution risk and selectivity as not every single miner/company that does HPC will succeed. I'm specifically talking about HPC segments when it comes to margins at scale, not BTC mining or reserves (which I am also super bullish on if you know my history). I'm also not arguing for or against any specific miner aside from explaining why I personally chose $NBIS. I'm sure there will be other winners like $WULF in the space too. I'm simply highlighting execution risk and pointing out that the lens people are looking at the companies (MW buildout instead of considering margins) might be wrong.
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澄清Coreweave曾为矿企，质疑对方观点意图。
@NoNameBitcoiner $CRWV 在以太坊仍采用工作量证明(Proof of Work)机制时曾进行挖矿，因此 Coreweave 在转向高性能计算(HPC)之前是一家矿企。不太确定你想表达什么。
英文原文
@NoNameBitcoiner $CRWV mined Ethereum when they still did pow, so Coreweave was a miner before pivoting to hpc. Not quite sure where you're going with this.
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博主回应重大新闻未引起股价即时波动。
@dealers_secrets @__visionxry__ @mattia030339 @soulbiri1 你说得对，重大新闻我甚至都没注意到。目前尚无价格影响，我们拭目以待。
英文原文
@dealers_secrets @__visionxry__ @mattia030339 @soulbiri1 Ur right big news didn’t even notice. No price impact yet we’ll see
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指出$HOOD因路由至做市商导致成交差，卖期权时损失巨大。
@cmachdop 纯粹是执行问题。$HOOD 将订单路由给做市商(MMs)，因此你的成交质量更差。当你卖出期权时，这种影响会被放大，因为你在成交价上的损失高达数千美元，而节省的佣金却只有几美元。
英文原文
@cmachdop Purely execution. $HOOD routes orders through MMs so you get worse fill. This compounds a ton when you write options when you lose thousands off fill vs a few dollars in fees.
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询问对方是否指代 OnlyFins
@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy 你的意思是 OnlyFins 吗
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy Do you mean OnlyFins
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建议观望，认为NBIS相对未来潜力严重低估。
@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 我个人会选择观望等待，我认为 $NBIS 相对于其未来潜力而言被严重低估。
英文原文
@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 I’d personally wait it out, I think $NBIS is way undervalued relative to forward potential
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看好Neocloud板块，但提示规模化执行风险并调整持仓。
@theBTCMiningGuy 所以我提出的观点是细微的，我仍然看好 $IREN、$WULF、$CIFR 等股票，并相信 Neocloud 板块将迅速扩张。只是指出在规模化过程中并非所有执行都会完美，存在现实的 downside risk（下行风险），我个人也调整了投资组合头寸。
英文原文
@theBTCMiningGuy So the point I made was nuanced, I’m still bullish on stocks like $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR and believe the Neocloud sector will expand rapidly. Just pointing out realistic downside risk in that not all execution will be pretty at scale and I personally changed portfolio positioning
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看好$WULF，认为其95亿长期合资协议虽营收释放慢但规模可观。
@poemaran 没错！在我看来，$WULF 是这批公司中表现较好的之一，尤其是在刚刚宣布的 95 亿美元新合资企业(JV)之后。 我认为合同期限超过 25 年，因此营收增长(Revenue Ramp)可能真的非常缓慢（与 5 年期合同相比），但鉴于其市值(MC)，这一规模相当可观，是个好消息。
英文原文
@poemaran Yep! $WULF is one of the better ones out of the bunch imo, especially after the new JV that just got announced for $9.5B. It was over 25 years I think so revenue ramp likely really slow (compared to a 5Y deal) but just given the MC it’s really sizable and great news.
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建议等待政府重新开放后 ETF 获批。
@__visionxry__ @mattia030339 @soulbiri1 是的，只需等待政府重新开放时 ETF 获得批准即可。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ @mattia030339 @soulbiri1 Yeah just wait for ETF approval when government to reopens
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讽刺因关税担忧而将资金从巨头转向微小纯素肉公司的逻辑。
@DeepValueBagger 认为高利润的万亿美元级公司正受到种子油关税的威胁，因此将资本轮动到防御性的$1亿市值纯素肉公司听起来很有道理。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger The argument that highly profitably trillion dollar companies are under threat from seed oil tariffs so it’s wise to rotate capital into defensive $100m vegan meat companies sounds good to me
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博主调侃差点发帖称资金轮动至Beyond Meat
@DeepValueBagger 说实话，我差点忍不住发个烂梗帖，说聪明钱正从 $SPY 和七巨头(Mag7) 轮动到 $BYND，还好我没发 lol
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Tbh, I was super tempted to make a shitpost saying smart money is rotating from SPY and Mag7 into $BYND but glad I didn’t lol
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博主回应争议，拒绝人身攻击，呼吁就 $NBIS 进行理性量化讨论。
再次说明，请告诉我你对 $NBIS 提出的具体量化论点，我很乐意现在就与你讨论。如果你不知道，之前与 @FransBakker9812 的第一次交流演变成了“我的年初至今(YTD)收益比你高，所以离开这个平台”，如果你试图将 Nebius 与社会主义政权进行比较，那也没什么好说的。至于与 @Agrippa_Inv 的情况，则演变成了单方面的个人攻击或引战行为，比如从“文盲”到“我赢了”、“被喷了”、“闭嘴”，而不是进行讨论。如果任何人愿意本着诚意就当前话题进行讨论，而不是进行人身攻击，我很乐意与他们进一步交流。
英文原文
Again let me know what specific quantitative argument you're making against $NBIS and I'm happy to discuss them with you now. If you're not aware, the first exchange with @FransBakker9812 devolved into "My YTD is better than yours so quit this platform” and there's nothing much to say if you try comparing Nebius to socialist regimes. In the case with @Agrippa_Inv, it devolved into one-sided personal attacks or engagement bait like "illiterate" to "I WIN", "GET ROASTED", "SHUT YOU UP" rather than discussion. I'm happy to engage more with anyone if they want to come in with good faith and discuss the topic at hand rather than attacking character.
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博主回应质疑，指出对方缺乏定量论据，仅以性格攻击和拖延回应。
@jarad1821 我很乐意现在就回应关于 $IREN 或 $NBIS 的任何观点。但到目前为止，你还没有给出任何定量论据供我反驳。你所做的只是以“过度自信”等性格特征为由说我的论点错误，然后默认“几年后再见”。
英文原文
@jarad1821 I'm happy to address any points about $IREN or $NBIS now. But so far you haven't given a single quantitative argument to respond to. All you've done was say my thesis is wrong because of character traits such as "overconfidence", then default to "come back in a few years"
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回应质疑，要求对方就NBIS提出量化论点而非人身攻击。
@jarad1821 如果你想在这里提出关于 $NBIS 的量化论点，我很乐意回应。否则，通过“过度自信”和“自我归因”等人身攻击来否定投资逻辑是站不住脚的。
英文原文
@jarad1821 If you'd like to put up a quantitative argument about $NBIS here, I'm happy to respond. Otherwise, projection through personal attacks like "overconfidence" and "self attribution" to dismiss a thesis doesn't hold up.
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指出$CRWV在百亿营收规模下利润率将因规模效应而改变。
@MEijkelenborg 你忽略了规模效应。你可以展示在季度营收2000万美元或1.05亿美元时的利润率，但一旦产能建设达到如$CRWV所预期的季度营收10亿美元以上的规模，执行力和利润率都会发生变化。
英文原文
@MEijkelenborg You're missing at scale. You can show margins at $20m Q/revenue or $105M Q/revenue but execution and margins will change once you get to the projected scale based on capacity buildout like $1B+ Q/revenue what $CRWV has.
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持有能源股中期看涨，并将矿工股利润轮动至NBIS。
是的，$FLNC、$SEI 和 $TE 都是数据中心建设扩张的受益者。除了其他持仓外，我在 T1 Energy 的看涨期权上目前亏损约 30%，这主要受其 7000 万美元稀释消息的影响，但由于这是一个不错的能源板块一篮子投资，我打算再持有一段时间。 近期许多新闻对能源板块来说也是极度看涨（omega bullish），因此我很乐意中期持有。 特别是考虑到特朗普在 Quantum、关键矿产以及可能是美国本土制造的能源如 $TE 中持有股份。 我个人刚刚将矿工股（miners）的利润转移，进行了向新云（neocloud）板块的轮动，买入 $NBIS，不涉及其他细分领域。
英文原文
Yeah so $FLNC, $SEI, $TE are beneficiaries of data center buildout. Aside from the others, I'm actually down right now ~30% on T1 Energy calls though after the $70M dilution news, but holding a bit longer since it's a decent segment basket for energy. Lot of the recent news is omega bullish too for energy so happy mid term hold. Especially with Trump taking stakes in Quantum, Critical Minerals, and possibly American made energy like $TE. I personally just moved profits from miners -> neocloud sector rotation into $NBIS, not other segments.
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指出仅CRWV具备规模化现金流可见性，其他公司尚未实现。
@MEijkelenborg 你忽略了现金流可见性以及规模化效应。目前只有 $CRWV 在财报中体现了这一点，其他公司尚未实现规模化收入，且利润率也未显现。
英文原文
@MEijkelenborg You're missing cash-flow visibility and at scale. Only $CRWV has that show up in earnings right now, none of the companies have fully executed revenue at scale yet with margins showing up for it.
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被视作仿冒的技术或产品可能最终成为主流正品。
@Drdebuneko 确实... 没错。不过，曾经被称作“仿冒品”的东西有时也会变成正品。这就像丑小鸭变成天鹅一样。
英文原文
@Drdebuneko True... 確かにね。でも、「パチモン」って言われてたものが本物になることもある。 いわば、みにくいアヒルの子が白鳥になるようなものだね。
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作者认为NBIS风险收益比优于IREN，但承认IREN具高投机潜力。
嗯，我仍然坚持认为 $NBIS 具有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)，与 $IREN 相比，其下行风险更低，上行空间更大。这得益于其现有的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)合约、随客户同步扩张的子公司，以及拥有全栈(full-stack)能力的更高利润率业务。 另一方面，我同意 $IREN 因其产能和基础设施而具有极高的投机性上行空间。 我曾同时持有这两只股票，同时持有两者也没问题，但我认为在矿企股价上涨后，Nebius 的风险收益比(risk-reward)更好。 讨论这些观点很好！
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Hmm, I still maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return, with lower downside, high upside compared to $IREN with existing hyperscaler deals, subsidiaries scaling alongside them, and a higher margin business with full-stack. On the other hand, I'd agree $IREN has a high speculative upside due to capacity and infrastructure. I've owned both and it's fine have both, I just think risk-reward is better for Nebius after the runup on miners. It's good to discuss those points!
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博主分享3天48%收益，调侃用利润买午餐。
@soulbiri1 哇，3天48%的回报总是令人愉悦。$43K足够买几份$SG沙拉当午餐了。
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@soulbiri1 ooo 48% return in 3 days is always nice. $43K is enough to buy a few $SG salads for lunch.
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博主计划在当前价位重新买入$HIMS，并看好周一的连续竞价拍卖。
@jliljliljlil @DeepValueBagger 我目前没有任何 $HIMS 的头寸，我可能会在这个价位再次买入。 我在16%的跌幅时买入，在反弹4-5%时卖出，此后一直空仓。 但周一的连续竞价拍卖(CSP)听起来很有希望。
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@jliljliljlil @DeepValueBagger I dont have any $HIMS position right now, I'll probably buy in again at this level. I bought at that 16% drop, sold on a 4-5% recovery, and haven't had any positions since. But CSP for Monday sounds promising.
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建议忽略可疑交易，聚焦微软等大客户合同及NBIS等核心标的。
@adenois @RJCcapital 是的，我可能错了，股价可能会随机拉出一根100%的大阳线，但下次还是应该相信我对那笔与某家东南亚随机公司达成的14亿美元交易的直觉判断。 关注超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）如 $MSFT 类型的合同，并专注于 $NBIS 及其同行要安全得多。
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@adenois @RJCcapital Yeah I could be wrong and the stock pulls a random 100% green candle but should just trust my gut about the $1.4B deal with a random SEA company next time. Lot safer to look at hyperscaler $MSFT type contracts and just focus on $NBIS and co.
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博主清仓$GRRR，因SEA交易存疑，并引用其年度持仓复盘帖。
@adenois @RJCcapital 在SEA交易看起来可疑后，我清仓了$GRRR。我在几个地方发过关于它的帖子，比如 https://t.co/tzom3aAdSk
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@adenois @RJCcapital I sold out of $GRRR after the SEA deal seemed sketchy. I made a post about it in a few places like https://t.co/tzom3aAdSk
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博主表示对WLAC非常看好，此前因未关注SPAC而不知其存在。
@1995bearjew 我对 $WLAC 非常看好，只是在一个月前发布原始论点时还不知道它的存在，因为 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）Neoclouds 当时并不在我的关注范围内。
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@1995bearjew I'm very bullish $WLAC, just didn't know it existed 1 month ago when I made the original thesis post since SPAC Neoclouds weren't really on my radar.
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LTC因政府停摆致ETF延期，但作者认为其支付效用高且被低估。
哈哈，$LTC 原本打算作为短线交易，Litecoin ETF 获批概率高达 95%，计划是在获批确认时卖出，并可能布局新的国库相关标的。结果政府停摆一个月，导致 ETF 延期。运气确实不太好。但从基本面来看，我认为由于其在支付领域的高实用性相对于低市值，该资产被低估了。
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lol $LTC supposed to be a shorter play, Litecoin ETF gets approved 95% chance, then just sell into approval acceptance and possibly new treasury plays. Then government gets shut down for a month so ETFs get delayed. Yeah not the best luck. Fundamentally I think the asset is undervalued because of its high utility in payments still vs. low market cap.
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回顾NBIS反弹，分析TGT分红前策略及LTC受政府停摆影响的ETF进展。
我最近一直在发关于 $NBIS 的帖子，因为那30%的跌幅，导致我有一阵子忘了聊其他股票！跌到 $94 时的上行空间简直惊人，即使你没抓到真正的底部。 我之前提到的 $LTC 到 $TGT 的短期催化剂帖子依然有效，因为有人问起。 $TGT 11月12日的分红催化剂，我个人会持有，但由于它已经在28%-32%的隐含波动率下上涨了8%+，考虑到财报日(ER)是11月19日，再持有两周或稍微减仓我都觉得没问题。随你决定。 对于 $LTC 和其他股票，策略仍在进行中，只需等待政府停摆结束以及ETF获批。 我只是没料到政府停摆会持续一个月，所以ETF被延迟了。
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I've been posting about $NBIS recently because of the 30% drop that I forgot to talk about other stocks for awhile! Upside on the drop to $94 was insane, even if you didn't catch the true bottom. Near term catalyst posts that I mentioned still stands for $LTC to $TGT since others ask about it. $TGT Nov 12th dividend catalyst, I'd personally hold but since it already went up 8%+ on 28%-32% IV, I don't see many issues holding another 2 weeks since ER is Nov 19th or just trimming some. Up to you. For $LTC and others, the play is still ongoing, just need to wait for government shutdown to finish and for the ETF to be approved. I just did not expect a 1 month government shutdown so ETFs got delayed.
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展示Neocloud板块个股一个月涨幅，重申看好并集中持仓NBIS。
Neocloud（新云）的投资逻辑经受住了时间的考验。 一个月后： $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) 这仅仅是史上最大规模AI数据中心建设浪潮的开始，金融圈(X)上的所有人现在入场都还为时过早。 我对整个Neocloud板块非常看好，但个人因$NBIS具有最高的非对称回报潜力而集中持仓。
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The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) This is only the beginning of the largest AI data center buildout in history and everyone on finx is still early. I'm very bullish on the Neocloud sector across the board, but personally have concentration in $NBIS due to the highest asymmetrical return.