全部推文

共 6406 条 · 第 100 / 214 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 杂谈

    表示对方画得更干净了。

    @beauty_oe 这版本的图确实干净多了!

    英文原文

    @beauty_oe That's definitely a much cleaner version of the graph!

  2. 杂谈

    说这件事是 AI 无法取代的。

    @fated65 这种东西是 AI 永远替代不了的。

    英文原文

    @fated65 This is something AI can never replace.

  3. 供应链分析 $MU$SNDK

    内存价格预计涨至2028年,AI结构性需求支撑利润,即使利润率下降行业仍被看好

    内存周期。 大概会像这张图一样吗? 以SK Hynix、$SNDK、三星、$MU等为例: -> 价格持续上涨至2028年 -> 需求增长具有持久性 -> 2028年后价格回落 -> 产能增加 * 需求增加 * 利润率下降 = 利润依然可观。 例如: 2026年Q1:DRAM、NAND价格上涨 - NAND价格环比上涨100%+,DRAM上涨70%+。 2026年Q2:DRAM NAND价格上涨 - 三星Q2 NAND价格再次上涨100%+,DRAM上涨。 Q3至2028年价格持续上涨。 1. 反方观点:「在2027年下半年没有任何情景会让内存价格回调,考虑到超大规模云厂商的采购意愿丝毫未减」 2. 英特尔CEO:「2028年前内存短缺不会缓解」。 然而人们误解了的是: -> 内存需求是结构性的,由AI驱动。 -> 但价格不是(结构性的)。 2026年极端内存短缺情况下,我们很可能持续看到价格上涨。 但价格会在2028年开始下跌。人们混淆的是: -> AI带来的极端需求不会导致价格跌到零。 -> 更多产能不会导致需求突然归零。 供给增加 * 价格 * 需求增加 * 更低运营利润率 = 利润依然可观。 运营利润不会像现在这样环比增长10000%+。 但如果SK Hynix通过产能增加、利润率下降但保持稳定运营利润,年度运营收入约1000亿美元以上,市值4000亿美元: 对比1000亿 -> 2200亿 -> 900亿 -> 1200亿的模式。 那就看起来被低估了。 我不认为会出现末日派所预测的1000亿->1800亿(2027年)->100亿的情况,即因需求下滑(如智能手机)和利润率下滑而亏损运营。 主要需要关注两件事:软件/内存使用效率是否变得极高,或者超大规模云厂商资本支出突然消失(AI不再是回事)。 GPU训练/推理也是同样的逻辑。 但我最主要关注的是超大规模云厂商资本支出预测,作为第一指标。不是断章取义地从三星高管那里摘取几句话来预测两年后的运营收入。 AI从根本上改变了「商品」内存的本质,类似于2023年的GPU。

    英文原文

    The Memory Cycle. Is probably going to look like this chart? With SK Hynix, $SNDK, Samsung, $MU and others: -> Price Hikes until 2028 -> Demand Increase Permanent -> Price Decreases After 2028 -> Increased Capacity * Increased Demand * lower margin = High Profit Anyway. For example: 2026 Q1: DRAM, NAND Price Hikes - NAND prices 100%+ Q/Q, DRAM up 70%+. 2026: Q2: DRAM NAND Price Hikes - Samsung hikes Q2 NAND prices 100%+ Again, DRAM up. Q3 -> 2028 Price Hikes. 1. Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken" 2. Intel CEO: "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028". However what people misunderstand: -> Memory Demand Is Structural with AI. -> Prices are not. We'll likely keep seeing price hikes with the extreme memory shortage in 2026. But prices start to fall in 2028. What people conflate is: -> Extreme demand for AI will not cause prices to go to 0. -> More capacity will not cause demand to suddenly go to 0. More Supply * Price * More Demand * lower operating margin = more profit anyway. Operating income will not be 10000%+ Q/Q like now. But if SK Hynix is producing a more steady ~$100B+ operating income Y/Y at a $400B MC from increased capacity but lower margin: Compared to $100B -> $220B -> $90B -> $120B. Then that itself looks undervalued. I don't see a world where it ends up being $100B-> $180B (2027) -> $10B what doomposters are projecting, where they operate at a loss from both demand downturn (eg. smartphones) and margin downturn. The main two things is to look out for is if software/memory usage gets extremely, extremely efficient or hyperscaler capex suddenly disappears (AI is no longer a thing). Same could be said around GPUs for training/inference. But, I would mainly be looking out for hyperscaler capex projections as the #1 indicator. Not random out of context quotes taken from Samsung executives to signal operating income two years out. AI has fundamentally changed what the "commodity" memory is, similar to GPUs back in 2023.

  4. 业绩复盘 $OIL

    对比美国能源官员和 Reddit 里的原油多头,调侃大家都在喊油价上行。

    美国能源部长:“美国正在采取‘很多措施’来缓解油价上涨。” 内政部长:“特朗普政府讨论过在原油期货市场上交易,作为帮助抑制原油飙升的一种策略。” 与此同时,Reddit 上的人在喊:“该全仓做多 150-200 美元的油了。”

    英文原文

    US Energy Secretary: “U.S. Takes ‘Many Actions’ to Mitigate Rising Oil Price” Interior Secretary: “The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices” Meanwhile on Reddit: “Time to full port into Oil futures” I’m not sure how retail investors can see statements from the US Gov wanting to keep oil prices low… And still full port their account the other direction with crude oil?

  5. 供应链分析 $TESLA$SANHUA

    认为特斯拉做设计,但大量实际硬件来自中国公司,而中国握有出口管制开关。

    @ChunkOfTheStars 特斯拉做的是设计。大部分实际硬件来自像 Sanhua 这样的中国公司。 而中国对这些硬件握有出口管制的开关。 https://t.co/zb26qZroKq

    英文原文

    @ChunkOfTheStars Tesla does the design. Majority of the actual hardware comes from Chinese companies like Sanhua China has the export control switch over that hardware. https://t.co/zb26qZroKq

  6. 供应链分析 $TSLA$BOSTON DYNAMICS

    认为即使先进机器人原型能在美国做出来,规模化时还是会因稀土而受中国控制。

    @Adam_a_Dias 你当然可以在 $TSLA 或 Boston Dynamics 做出最先进的机器人原型。 但一旦要规模化,中国就会因为稀土优势而掌控局面。

    英文原文

    @Adam_a_Dias You can manufacture the most advanced robot prototypes at $TSLA or Boston Dynamics. But when you try and scale it up, China has control because of rare earths dominance.

  7. 供应链分析

    中国主导人形机器人零部件供应链,稀土是关键筹码

    是的,中国在制造人形机器人所需零部件方面正在超越美国。 而美国公司正在加倍投入,完全依赖中国来扩大人形机器人的生产规模。 部分原因是因为没有其他选择,因为西方的选择无法将零部件成本降下来。 如果稀土问题得不到解决,中国将永远掌握美国机器人计划的命门。

    英文原文

    Yes, China is dominating US on the component side needed to make humanoids. And US companies are doubling down, by completely relying on China for scaling up humanoid production. Part of which, is because there’s no other choice as Western options cannot get costs down for components. If rare earths doesnt get addressed, China will always a kill switch over America’s robotics program.

  8. 供应链分析

    区分了 AI / 数据中心与人形机器人所需材料,强调美国必须稳住机器人供应链。

    用于扩展 AI 和数据中心的材料,和用于扩展人形机器人的材料,本质上完全不同。 比如钨虽然也受出口管制,但它并不是人形机器人的结构性核心部件。 美国需要做更多事情,来保护自己机器人供应链的安全……

    英文原文

    The materials required to scale AI and DCs are fundamentally different from those required to scale humanoid robots. For example tungsten is export controlled, but it's not a structural part in humanoids. America needs to do more to secure its robotic supply chains in specific.

  9. 杂谈

    只有一个链接。

    https://t.co/6xoodaH87j

    英文原文

    https://t.co/6xoodaH87j

  10. 杂谈

    祝对方寻求透明度顺利。

    @chinoalemano @hansvestberg @GerardRotonda @michelamar3 @SECGov @HesterPeirce @YungAds_ 祝你们好运,继续追求透明度。

    英文原文

    @chinoalemano @hansvestberg @GerardRotonda @michelamar3 @SECGov @HesterPeirce @YungAds_ Best of luck seeking transparency

  11. 杂谈

    说周一或周二还会有一条 AI 供应链相关内容。

    @mikemilly172 下周一或周二还会有一条 AI 供应链相关内容,我觉得会很炸。

    英文原文

    @mikemilly172 There's another AI supply chain one coming Monday or Tuesday, I think it's gonna be a banger!

  12. 杂谈

    夸赞对方开头的两个词写得很好。

    @TradexWhisperer 这是我在帖子里见过最好的两个词开头。

    英文原文

    @TradexWhisperer Best two word opening I've seen in a post

  13. 杂谈

    说自己早就这样想了,只是总得有人把话说出来。

    @TedWilliams1930 我已经这样想很久了……但总得有人把那句没人想说的话讲出来,对吧?

    英文原文

    @TedWilliams1930 I've been thinking this for the longest time... but someone has to say the quiet part out loud at one point?

  14. 杂谈 $NBIS

    neocloud 各家数据中心命名还不够好,Elon 的命名最好。

    @soulbiri1 对,但整个 neocloud 赛道的数据中心命名还得再打磨一下…… Elon Musk 给他的 DC 起名就最好。

    英文原文

    @soulbiri1 Yes, but the datacenter names... across the entire neocloud sector needs work. Elon Musk does it best for his DC names.

  15. 杂谈 $META

    解释有些公司会保留法律主体名称,但对外会用更酷的项目名。

    他们甚至不需要在法律上重新命名这个站点,或者重新提交文件。 他们只需要把运营主体继续写成“Barber Lake, LLC”就行,留着审计用。 然后市场团队在别处就可以把它叫做“The Leviathan Megacluster”。 这正是 $META 的做法……

    英文原文

    They don't even have to legally "rename" the site or file new paperwork. They just keep the operating entity as "Barber Lake, LLC" for review. Then, the marketing team can refer to it as "The Leviathan Megacluster" everywhere else. It's exactly what $META does. You can have "Prineville Data Center" on the permits, but the naming is "Research SuperCluster

  16. 杂谈 $CIFR

    用命名对比说明对散户而言,酷一点的名字会更有吸引力。

    @Sermario 不。你对场外散户说: “$CIFR 刚刚上线了 300MW 的 Barber Lake 数据中心!” 和 “$CIFR 刚刚在 Barber Lake 上线了 300MW 的 Leviathan Megacluster!” 你看看哪个更能吸引注意力、也更容易拿到估值溢价。

    英文原文

    @Sermario No. Tell a retail investor outside of X: " $CIFR just launched their 300MW Barber Lake datacenter!" vs. " $CIFR just launched their 300MW Leviathan Megacluster in Barber Lake". And see which gets more attention/valuation premium.

  17. 杂谈 $NBIS$TSLA

    建议 NBIS 学 Tesla 一样给数据中心起更酷的名字。

    对,$NBIS 只需要学 Elon 给 $TSLA 命名数据中心的方式,比如那个超酷的 “Colossus” 数据中心。 他可没叫它“孟菲斯数据中心 1”。 就照着这个思路更上一层楼。 把 $NBIS 下一个数据中心叫“The Singularity Megaplex”,放在 Vineland,之类的。

    英文原文

    Yep, $NBIS just needs to follow how Elon does his naming conventions with $TSLA like "Colossus" DC, which is a badass name. He didn't call it "Memphis Datacenter 1" Just one up that. Call $NBIS next datacenter: "The Singularity Megaplex" in Vineland, and it would command a much higher valuation.

  18. 方法论 $NBIS$IREN$POET$NVDA$CIFR

    认为 neocloud 的数据中心如果有更酷的命名,估值可能会更高。

    这是我的一个热观点: 像 $NBIS 或 $IREN 这样的 neocloud,如果把数据中心起个更酷的名字,估值可能会高 1.3 倍。 酷名字示例: - $POET 的 “Starlight” - $NVDA 的 “Blackwell” 但数据中心呢? - $IREN 的 “Prince George” - $CIFR 的 “Barber Lake” 为什么要把 AI 数据中心命名成你的理发师名字,或者英国小孩的昵称? 我发誓,除了现有投资者之外,没人会对 Iren 的 “Prince George” 数据中心上线感到兴奋。 但如果大家都看到 $NBIS 的 “Singularity” AI 数据中心上线,那听起来就酷多了。 Nebius 现在本该值 400 亿美元了。

    英文原文

    This is my hot take: Neoclouds like $NBIS or $IREN would command 1.3X higher valuation... If they renamed their datacenters to something cool. Cool Name Examples: - $POET "Starlight" - $NVDA "Blackwell" But datacenters? - $IREN "Prince George" - $CIFR "Barber Lake" Why are you naming an AI datacenter after your hair cut stylist or a British Kid nickname? I swear, nobody outside existing investors are going to hyped over Iren's "Prince George" datacenters coming online. But if everyone see's $NBIS "Singularity" AI DC coming online, that just sounds badass. Nebius would be worth $40B by now.

  19. 年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。

    只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月,粉丝增长到 10 万+: - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者(涨了 4 倍+) - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制,针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久,这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子,如果看过,抱歉? - 预测了韩国市场波动上升,并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站,以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师,围绕我那篇关于 Soitec($SOI)的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者,比如 Gold Reserve,而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合,结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道! 我其他很多 thesis 帖,比如 $LITE,也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射,以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷! 短短两个月里!我喜欢保持谦虚,但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是,这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播,几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么,也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。

    英文原文

    Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.

  20. 杂谈

    感谢对方的夸奖,并表示受宠若惊。

    @pepemoonboy 谢谢你!这么夸我真的让我很受宠若惊,尤其是这话还是来自那个带我开始玩 X 的人。

    英文原文

    @pepemoonboy Thank you! Super humbled by that compliment, especially coming from the person who helped me get started on X

  21. 杂谈

    说自己现在确实有更多行业领导者在关注自己的想法。

    @MillennialRisk 现在确实有!看到很多行业领袖在关注我的想法,挺酷的。 我通常能比较准地看出什么东西正在起势。

    英文原文

    @MillennialRisk I do now! It’s cool to see a lot of industry leaders paying attention to my ideas. I tend to have a good read on what’s up and coming.

  22. 方法论 $SOI$AAOI

    介绍自己的订阅区只是“洗澡时的灵感区”,不会把主线内容付费锁住。

    哇,谢谢大家这个月的 4300 位订阅者! 我最近刚把它设好,但还没正式发过帖。 这是我的第一篇! 不过,这段时间我一直收到大量私信,所以顺手做个 PSA: 我做的任何 DD(比如 $SOI 到 $AAOI)最终都会出现在我的主时间线。 我不会把任何 thesis 帖永久锁在付费墙后面,但我可能会在订阅区稍微提前发一点。 尤其是因为 HFT 算法也会爬我的主帖,而我更愿意给零售投资者一个先手。 不过本质上,我把订阅区当成一个“洗澡时的灵感”空间。 所以那些零散的供应链、笔记、交易想法,比如: - 套利 / 期权 - DCA 加仓位 - 还没变成完整 thesis 前的早期想法 - 或者随机的 AMA 问答 我不想让主时间线塞满这些不正式的思考过程或评论。 所以我觉得,顺着这个过程分享我学到的东西,同时先给真正关注的人一个提示,会更有意思! 如果你想看我白天到底在想什么,那这个频道就是干这个的!

    英文原文

    Wow, thank you all for 4300 subscribers this month! I recently set it up, and never made a formal post about it. This is my first one! But, I've been getting floods of DMs about it. So just to clarify things with a quick PSA: Any DD I do ( $SOI to $AAOI) will always end up on my main timeline. I won't gatekeep any thesis posts I make, but I might post a tiny bit earlier in the sub spaces. Especially since HFT algorithms scrape my main posts too and I like to give retail audiences a heads up before the algos. But I basically use the subscription channel as a "Shower Thoughts" space. So any random supply chains, notes, trade ideas like - arbitrages/options - DCA levels - early ideas before they become full thesis or actionable ideas - or random ama questions I just didn't want to flood the main timeline with informal thought process or comments. So thought it would be more fun along the way to share what I learn and give real folks a heads up first. If you're interested in what I'm thinking about throughout the day, that's what the channel is for!

  23. 方法论 $NBIS$NVDA

    对比CSP与Long的风险收益,指出CC使用时机的重要性

    观点一致!我认为现金担保看跌期权(CSP)几乎零风险,而相反观点说"风险巨大"其实不太对,因为说到底你只是在买股票而已。只不过收益比直接做多(Long)低得多。这正是为什么我通常不使用CSP,除非我想分批建仓,或者想在像现在这样的时期交易波动率。不过我发现卖出覆盖认购期权(CC)要痛苦得多,因为很多时候会因为某个随机催化剂而突破你的行权价(比如$NBIS从$NVDA获得20亿美元),如果你不想缴纳资本利得税,就得把它买回来。如果你本来就打算卖出或者你真的很擅长择时(这对大多数人来说做不到),用CC会更好。

    英文原文

    Same opinion! I find CSP to be almost 0 risk against contrary opinion saying “massive risk” since as you mentioned it’s just buying a stock. The returns are just a lot, lot lower than going Long though. Which is why I typically don’t use it unless I want to scale into positions or want to trade volatility during times like these. I find writing CCs is a lot more painful though since a lot of times it blows past your strike on a random cataylst (eg. $NBIS getting $2B from $NVDA and if you don’t want capital gains, you need to buy it back. Better to use it if you’re down to sell or you’re really good at timing (which is not for most people)

  24. 供应链分析 $IQE

    说明 IQE 有 100+ 反应器产能,若重构为 InP epiwafer 生产是可行的。

    @Lee_Trades 对,我显然把事情说得比较简化了,但它们确实有 100+ 的反应器产能。Landmark 大概是 28-30 台,但它们更偏纯粹。 把这些产能重构到 InP epiwafer 生产需要时间和钱,但对 $IQE 来说肯定是可行的。

    英文原文

    @Lee_Trades Yes, I’m obviously oversimplifying things but they literally have 100+ reactor capacity. Landmark probably ~28-30 but they’re more pure play. Takes time and money to refactor a lot of these to InP epiwafer production but it’s certainly doable for $IQE

  25. 个股论点 $IQE$IREN$LITE

    把 IQE 看作光子领域的 IREN 版,认为它拥有产能,只需要重组和向 AI / 光子转型。

    $IQE 就是我在光子领域里的 $IREN 等价物。 它们有反应器和产能。而且也不是什么无人知晓的公司,因为它们本来就是 $LITE 的已知供应商。 它们只需要彻底摆脱历史包袱,重新梳理债务(可以通过台湾资产出售来处理),然后把重心转向 AI 光子化。

    英文原文

    $IQE is my $IREN equivalent for photonics. They have the reactors and capacity. And they’re not some unknown company as they’re a known $LITE supplier. They just need to completely restructure away from legacy drag, restructure debt from Taiwan asset sales, and pivot to photonics for AI.

  26. 业绩复盘 $IQE$LANDMARK

    认为 IQE 涨了 70% 但仍被 legacy drag 压制,而 Landmark 等更纯粹的同业市值更高。

    自从我发帖之后,$IQE 已经涨了大约 70%。 它是全球最大的 InP epifab 之一。 不过,$IQE 身上有太多历史包袱。 因此,像 Landmark 这样更小、纯粹的同类公司,市值都到了 42 亿美元,而 $IQE 还在低估值里交易。 既然它拥有巨大的反应器潜在产能,而且市值只有约 2.5 亿美元,那它真正需要做的只有: 去掉拖累。重组清债。把产能重心转向 AI。 而 CTO 终于出来重申了我关于光子的 thesis: “对于 InP 来说,这意味着 6 英寸晶圆。四年多前,IQE 就是第一个展示 6 英寸 InP 技术的公司,因为他们很早就意识到了这点。 IQE 已经展示了高速度光器件在 6 英寸晶圆上所需的纯度、均匀性和重复性。 IQE 已经准备好帮助推动下一波 AI 硬件和数据中心创新。” 虽然这看起来像一篇很普通的营销稿,但这正是他们要重新被定价成一家十亿美元级公司的 thesis。 更多行业高管应该去听市场的声音。 风险当然还在,尤其是重组层面。 但现在该看管理层能不能成功执行,并把重点放在 AI / 光子上,而不是历史业务。 不过,这种明确表态,正是我个人愿意承担风险的原因,因为这说明他们正在朝正确方向走。

    英文原文

    $IQE is up ~70% since I’ve posted. This is one of the largest InP Epifabs in the world. However, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting $IQE. And as a result, smaller pure play peers like Landmark sit at $4.2 Billion MC while $IQE trades at depressed valuations. With massive reactor latent capacity, and a ~$250M MC, the only thing they needed to do: Cut Drag. Restructure to clear debt. Focus capacity toward AI. And the CTO finally went out to reiterate my thesis focusing on photoics: “For InP, that means 6-inch wafers. IQE was the first to demonstrate 6-inch InP technology more than four years ago, having recognised this need early. IQE has shown the purity, uniformity and repeatability needed for high-speed optical devices on 6-inch wafers IQE is primed to help enable the next wave of AI hardware and data centre innovation.” Although this looks like a bland marketing post, this is the thesis they need to focus on to be re-rated as a billion dollar company. More industry executives should listen to markets. The risks are obviously present with restructuring. But now it’s up to management to successfully execute and put focus on AI/photonics, not legacy segments. However, this is the risk I’m personally willing to take, as clear statements like these means they’re heading down the right direction.

  27. 杂谈 $AXTI

    强调自己在 12-15 美元时就最早写过 AXT thesis。

    @9chaku 你知道吗,我才是最早在 $12-15 时写 $AXTI thesis 帖的人? https://t.co/nzOY0RornJ

    英文原文

    @9chaku You do realize I was the original person did the thesis post on $AXTI back at $12-15? https://t.co/nzOY0RornJ

  28. 供应链分析 $NVDA$AMD

    认为到 2028 年热管理会成为巨大瓶颈,尤其当新芯片功耗逼近 2000W。

    @pioter_pan 热管理到 2028 年会成为一个巨大的瓶颈,尤其是当新的 $NVDA 或 $AMD 芯片接近 2000W+ 功耗的时候。

    英文原文

    @pioter_pan Thermal is gonna be a huge bottleneck in 2028 especially as new $NVDA or $AMD chips approach 2000w+

  29. 方法论

    说自己只是抛想法,真正做判断的是对方。

    @SpilledMocha 我只是把想法抛出来!所有信息都是你自己整合、自己做决定的。 大家给我在这个角色上太多 credit 了。

    英文原文

    @SpilledMocha I'm just throwing out ideas! You synthesized all the information and made the decisions yourself. People give me too much credit for the role I play.

  30. 方法论 $ARKK

    说自己做的随机瓶颈 ETF 之前跑赢大盘,也吐槽 ARKK 的长期表现和管理费。

    @BrokeDadCapital 我之前做的那个随机瓶颈 ETF,一度明显跑赢大盘(现在的回报可能不一样了)。 不过说真的,我也不明白为什么大家还把钱放进 $ARKK——过去 5 年跌了 45.55% 还要再加管理费——明明自己拼个组合就可以了。 https://t.co/0LxzwWmMJE

    英文原文

    @BrokeDadCapital The random bottleneck ETF I made earlier was hard outperforming the market (returns are probably different now) But yeah, not sure why people put money into $ARKK, just do be down 45.55% over the past 5 years + management fees, when they can just build their own portfolios. https://t.co/0LxzwWmMJE