· 方法论
涉及标的： $AAOI$AXTI$IQE$NBIS$SIVE$SOI
我不喜欢这类帖子，但今天我还是再发一次： 当像$SOI这样的股票下跌6%，并回吐了本周大部分涨幅时： 关于SOI基板在硅光子学(silicon photonics)/共封装光学(CPO)领域达到垄断级别的投资论点没有任何改变。 不幸的是，大盘指数（巴黎证券交易所指数）本月暴跌9%，而且还在继续下跌。 而伊朗战争带来的更广泛宏观因素又进一步压低了很多股票。 我提到的每一只股票，比如$AXTI，不会直线上涨，但它们往往是强劲的超越大盘的标的。 如果我的投资论点发生实质性变化，我会发帖说明。 但如果股价下跌是因为宏观因素，或者在上涨400%后如$AAOI那样的轻微回调。 或者$SIVE在上周五暴跌16%然后周一又反弹35%…… 短期股价不会改变投资论点。 它也不应该改变你的信念。 特别是对于这些股票，如果我一段时间没有提到它们，比如$IQE，那只是处于重组或资产出售的等待期。或者$NBIS正处于其悄无声息的建设期，为Q4营收的爆发式增长做准备。 这类表现有时是宏观环境的副产品。 但如果它们能在一周内下跌10%，它们也能在一周内上涨10%。
Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.