个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 40 / 45 页
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强烈建议买入NBIS，因其市值下上行潜力巨大且收入预期惊人。
@_visionarius 两者都是强力买入标的，尤其是 $NBIS，考虑到其当前市值下非对称的上行潜力。他们的前瞻性收入数据简直令人难以置信地惊人。
英文原文
@_visionarius Both are strong buys, $NBIS especially given their asymmetrical upside at this marketcap. Their forward revenue is hilariously mind blowing.
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分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
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分析SPRB估值与稀释风险，虽短期或涨至$500，但不建议长期持有。
TLDR：如果没有稀释，仅因TA-ERT催化剂，股价可能暂时涨至$500。但这在稀释日如同玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。 我花更多时间研究了细节： $SPRB 的合理市值约为1.5亿-2亿美元（目前8500万）。原帖作者声称目标价$500，若公司不稀释则合理。 然而： 截至2025年6月30日，SPRB现金等价物仅1640万美元，鉴于现金余额低，通过增发新股进行稀释似乎不可避免。股价上涨源于低流通盘+利好消息（无16%这样的空头头寸，故非空头挤压）。 增发新股+稀释后（市值1.5亿-2亿美元可能使股价回归~$50-75），若计入稀释，我不认为能看到$500的目标价。 我们可能会因流通盘有限看到另一波100%+的上涨冲向$500（就像$BULL因低流通盘涨至600亿市值那样），但由于随机日期的稀释如同俄罗斯轮盘赌，我不建议长期持有。 无论如何，我喜欢玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。欢迎任何反驳观点。
英文原文
TLDR: Might go up to $500 temporary strike if there's no dilution just because of TA-ERT catalyst. But it's playing Russian Roulette on dilution days. So had some more time to look into things: Fair value $SPRB market cap is = ~$150–200m. ($85M now). In OP's post they claimed $500 PT, which is fair if company doesn't dilute. However: SPRB has $16.4M in cash equivalents, June 30, 2025, dilution with new shares seems inevitable just because of low cahs balance. Price rise was due to low float + good news (there's no short interest like .16% so not a short squeeze) After issuing new shares + dilution (Market cap at $150m-$200m might normalize share price to ~$50-75), don't really see the $500 figure if dilution is included. We might see another 100%+ runup just because of limited float toward that $500 mark (like how $BULL ran to a $60B MC off low float), but I would be against holding it long term because of russian roulette dilution on a random day. Either way, I like playing Russian Roulette. Welcome any counterpoints
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作者因SMCI入标普500后遭SEC调查而心有余悸。
@rocket5010 我对超微电脑($SMCI)有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，因为它们在进入标普500指数后遭到了美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的调查。
英文原文
@rocket5010 I have PTSD from $SMCI when they got into the S&P 500 then had a SEC investigation.
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RKLB虽为高信念持仓，但因高估决定停止交易并持有。
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB 是我过去5年中信念最强的股票，但说实话，它确实被严重高估了。我刚刚学会不再交易它，而是持有。
英文原文
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB is my highest conviction stock over 5 years but it's really overvalued tbh. I just learned to not trade this anymore and hold.
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分析SPRB酶替代疗法获批后的市值潜力，自曝买入并求教。
在 @MartinShkreli 发帖后，我查看了 $SPRB，它涉及 TA-ERT（酶替代疗法），属于突破性疗法。 粗略估算，如果 SPRB 的 TA-ERT 获批并长期占据 10-15% 的市场份额（对应 1.8 亿-2.7 亿美元 ARR），基于 14 亿美元的美国市场... 通过 2-3 倍营收计算，当前合理的公允价值可能在 2.8 亿-6.3 亿美元市值之间。 当然，从临床试验失败、商业化到稀释风险都很大，但 8500 万美元的市值看起来很有潜力？ （披露：我买了 5 万美元，纯粹作为高风险博弈） 显然我不是生物技术专家，这超出了我的专业领域，所以我想看看是否有其他领域专家能提供反馈或指出红旗警示。
英文原文
I was looking at $SPRB after @MartinShkreli posted about it and it’s TA-ERT, breakthrough enzyme therapy replacement. Just from a quick search if SPRB’s TA-ERT is approved and they capture 10-15% market share longer term ($180–$270M ARR) of $1.4B US market... Realistic fair value today could be ~$280m-630m MC from 2-3x rev calculations. Obviously there’s a lot of risk from clinical failures, commercialization, to dilution but a $85M market cap looks promising? (disclosure I bought $50k worth just as a high risk gamble) Obviously I’m not an expert in biotech and this is outside my domain, which is why I wanted to see if anyone else with any domain knowledge had feedback or red flags.
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Snap转向盈利举措被视为基本面催化剂。
@rioferdy838 从基本面来看，$SNAP 此前毫无亮点，因为他们一直专注于增强现实(AR)和眼镜。这类举措能让他们真正实现盈利，因此这一转变确实是一个催化剂。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 Fundamentally $SNAP had nothing going for it earlier because they kept focusing on AR and glasses. Stuff like that makes them actually profitable like this move is an actual catalyst.
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建议优先选其他股，但认为Snapchat估值应上调至10美元以上。
@cmachdop 谢谢，我想借此开个玩笑，因为这是 $SNAP 从第一天起就该做的更新。我仍然建议优先选择其他股票而非 Snapchat，但在我看来，它确实值得重新评级至 10 美元以上。
英文原文
@cmachdop Thanks, thought I'd have some fun with this since it's an update $SNAP needed to do from day 1. Would still recommend other stocks over Snapchat still but it does deserve a re-rating to $10+ imo
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Snap内存变现尚需一年，市场或待确认后再定价。
@fossinvest 我完全支持鼓励更多新贡献者分享非付费墙的深度研究(DD)。感谢发帖。 唯一的缺点是 Snap 的内存货币化(内存变现)实质性落地还需一年时间。市场通常具有前瞻性，但可能会等待更多确认信号，才会将其完全计入定价。
英文原文
@fossinvest I'm all for encouraging more non-paywalled DD from newer contributors when I can. Thanks for posting. Only downside is Snap's memory monetization is 1 year out materially. Markets are usually forward looking, but may wait for more confirmation before fully pricing it in
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对比各平台付费率，认为Snap 2%转化率合理且用户有付费意愿。
@whyp3rk 我对 $SNAP 使用了 2% 作为合理的估算值。 Dropbox 约 2.6% 是付费用户，Notion 为 4%，Google 约为 10-15%，iCloud 曾达到 60%。 我个人大概会愿意付费让 Snap 不要删除我的高中回忆 lol。每次只能迁移 100 张太烦人了。
英文原文
@whyp3rk I used 2% as a fair estimate for $SNAP. Dropbox ~2.6% are paid users, Notion 4%, Google 10-15%-ish, ICloud was 60%. I'd probably personally pay for Snap to not delete my high school memories lol. It's too annoying to migrate out 100 at a time.
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虽厌恶$SNAP，但鉴于降本增效未定价，建议买入。
@robswainept 我依然从心底讨厌 $SNAP，宁愿选择其他股票。但从数据来看，最新更新大幅降低了运营支出(OpEx)并增加了营收，显然市场尚未对此进行定价。虽然目前还为时过早，但大概率为买入(Buy)。
英文原文
@robswainept I still hate $SNAP from the bottom of my heart and would prefer other stocks any day of the week. But numbers wise, the new update reduces OpEx by a ton and increases revenue, but clearly hasn't been priced in yet. Obviously a bit early, so probably just a Buy.
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Snapchat通过存储变现降本增效，预计FCF大增，估值有望重估。
Snapchat 投资论点：一只被看空的股票如何重估为买入。 $SNAP 完成了关键转折，将其最大支出项转变为收入来源。 与 $META、$RDDT 相比，SNAP 要实现增长需要做两件事。 而……Snapchat 终于做到了其中一件。 那就是： 1. 变现“回忆”（存储）——潜在 50%+ 的上涨空间。 2. 通过公开 Web 应用 + TikTok 式信息流与 TikTok 竞争（1000%+ 上涨空间） Snapchat 终于通过第 1 点完成了转折，将其最大的运营支出 (OPEX) 变成了收入来源：他们实现了存储变现并删除了浪费的存储。 Snap 每季度收入 13.5 亿美元，且以健康速度增长，拥有 10 亿+ 月活跃用户 (MAU)。尽管收入数字庞大，但他们并未盈利。为什么？ 因为像我这样无数人存储了 10 年前拍摄的 GB 级视频。Snapchat 一直在免费支付 Google Cloud 来存储所有这些内容。Google Cloud 的成本每个季度都严重侵蚀其净利润。 因此，随着这一最新变化——向用户收费（类似 iCloud）以获取存储，这是一个巨大的新收入来源， 同时在大幅降低运营支出 (OpEx) 的基础上，Snapchat 刚刚获得了重估。 _云成本细分_ Snap 的云基础设施是其最大成本之一，历史上每年超过 24 亿美元（收入成本）。 其中大部分是“回忆”和视频等功能的存储 + 带宽。 回忆 + 视频档案 ≈ 云支出的 35-40%（估算） ~90% 的用户在 5GB 限额以下（无成本变化），但 10% 的重度用户持有大部分存储数据 _如果 Snap 删除 ~50% 的现有存储数据（非付费用户的旧视频/照片）_ 结果： 24 亿美元的 40% = 9.6 亿美元与回忆相关的云成本基线 重度用户存储减少 50% ~ 4.8 亿美元节省（激进估算） 考虑到数据迁移、部分重新分配、杂项： -> Snap 可能 realistically 实现其中的 ~40%，即每年节省 ~1.8-2 亿美元运营支出 (OPEX) 这直接转化为营业利润 + 自由现金流 (FCF)，因为这是纯粹的成本削减。 _付费存储收入（小用户群场景）_ 假设只有少量用户付费——远低于 iCloud 的 60% 采用率： MAU：~9 亿，付费用户：2%（~1800 万） 平均计划：2.49 美元/月（大多数在 1.99 或 3.99 美元层级） 每用户平均收入 (ARPU)：~30 美元/年 收入 = 1800 万 × 30 美元 = 每年 5.4 亿美元 减去 ~1 亿美元托管费 -> 4.4 亿美元净收入 这笔收入是经常性、高毛利的，并直接增加 FCF。 _预计年度综合影响：_ 运营支出节省（云）= +1.9 亿美元 付费存储收入 = +5.4 亿美元 存储成本 (COGS) = –1 亿美元 净 FCF 改善 = +6.3 亿美元 _估值重估_ 如果市场基于 ~8.5 亿美元可持续 FCF 对 Snap 进行重估： 应用 35 倍 EV/FCF 倍数（适用于利润率改善的成长型科技公司） EV ≈ 300 亿美元 → 市值 ≈ 310-330 亿美元 激进倍数 FCF 估算 8.5 亿美元 市值 25 倍 × 212.5 亿美元 EV ~ 220-230 亿美元市值（~13-14 美元/股） 30 倍 × 255 亿美元 EV ~ 260 亿美元市值（~15-16 美元/股） 35 倍 × 297.5 亿美元 EV ~ 310-320 亿美元市值（~19-20 美元/股） 从今天的 ~8.50 美元 -> 潜在 +50-100%+ 上涨空间，在 12-18 个月内，假设： - 执行顺利（无重大用户反弹，但我真的不认为用户会离开。）我个人会付费，因为我 5-10 年前用过 Snap，但不希望我的数据被删除。 - 3 次美联储降息压缩贴现率 - 投资者认可远期 FCF 当然，所有这一切都要在 1 年后才会发生。此外，我基于很多假设，例如 2% 的用户会付费（如 Dropbox），而 iCloud 有 60% 的用户。 _只是想给 @fossinvest 打个招呼，这是我做尽职调查 (DD) 时发现的一个小账号。他们也做了计算，但使用了更激进的算法 + 类似的想法，我要感谢他们提供的图片。 我可能在推测数字时出错（例如 1-1.5 亿美元运营支出，1% 的付费用户，但即使这样 FCF 也会得到巨大提升）。 无论如何，这是 SNAP 历史上在收入生成和运营支出削减方面做出的最大实质性改变，理应获得重估。 市场和对冲基金现在开始将其定价，因为他们是前瞻性的，但消化这一消息需要一些时间。
英文原文
The Snapchat Thesis: How a 🐶💩 Stock Re-Rated from Sell to Buy. $SNAP flipped the switch, making their biggest expense a revenue stream. There's two things that SNAP needed to do to grow vs. $META, $RDDT. and... Snapchat finally did it, well one of two. That is: 1. Monetize Memories (Storage) - potential 50%%+ upside. 2. Compete vs Tiktok with a public web app + Tiktok-style feed (1000%+ upside) Snapchat finally flipped the switch with #1 and made their biggest OPEX expense a revenue stream: They monetized storage and deleted wasteful storage. _ Snap brings in $1.35B revenue a quarter and is growing at healthy rates with 1B+ MAU. Despite large revenue numbers, they're not profitable. Why? Because countless people like myself have stored GBs of videos taken from 10 years ago. Snapchat has been paying Google Cloud to store all of that for free. Google Cloud costs just eats so much into its net profits every quarter. So with this recent change - charging users (like iCloud) for storage, which is a huge new revenue stream, On top of reducing OpEx by a massive margin, Snapchat just got a rerating. _ Cloud Cost Breakdown Snap’s cloud infrastructure is one of its largest costs, historically over $2.4B annually (cost of revenue). Most of that is storage + bandwidth for features like Memories and videos. Memories + video archives ≈ 35-40% of cloud spend (estimates) ~90% of users under the 5GB cap (no cost change), but 10% heavy users hold the majority of stored data _ If Snap deletes ~50% of existing stored data (non-paying users’ old videos/photos) Result: 40% of $2.4B = $960M cloud cost baseline tied to Memories 50% reduction in heavy-user storage ~ $480M savings (aggressive est.) After accounting for data migration, partial reallocation, misc: -> Snap may realistically realize ~40% of that, or ~$180–200M OPEX saved annually This goes straight to operating profit + FCF, since it’s a pure cost cut. _ Revenue from Paid Storage (Small User Base Scenario) Assuming a small number of users pay-far less than iCloud’s 60% adoption: MAU: ~900 million, Paying users: 2% (~18 million) Average plan: $2.49/month (most on $1.99 or $3.99 tiers) ARPU: ~$30/year Revenue = 18M × $30 = $540M per year Subtract ~$100M in hosting -> $440M net This revenue is recurring, high-margin, and adds directly to FCF. _ Estimated Combined Annual Impact: OPEX savings (cloud) = +$190M Paid storage revenue= +$540M Storage costs (COGS) = –$100M Net FCF improvement= +$630M _ Valuation Rerating If the market rerates Snap based on ~$850M sustainable FCF: Apply a 35× EV/FCF multiple (typical for growth tech with improving margins) EV ≈ $30B → Market cap ≈ $31–33B Aggressive Multiple FCF est. $850M _ Market Cap 25 × $21.25B EV ~ $22–23B mc (~$13–14/share) 30 x $25.5B EV ~ $26B mc (~$15–16/share) 35 x $29.75B EV ~ $31–32B mc (~$19–20/share) From ~$8.50 today -> potential +50–100%+ upside within 12–18 months, assuming: - Execution is smooth (no major user backlash, but really don't think users would quit.) Personally I'd just pay for it since I used Snap 5-10 years ago but don't want my data deleted. - 3 Fed rate cuts compress discount rates - Investors credit forward FCF Of course, all of this only happens 1 year from now. Also, I'm going off a lot of assumptions, such as 2% of users will pay (eg. Dropbox), vs. ICloud has 60% of users. _ Just thought I'd give a shoutout to @fossinvest, a small account I found while doing DD. They also did the math but used more aggressive calculations + similar idea, I'll give them credit for the image. _ I could be wrong with speculating the numbers (eg. $100-150M opex, and 1% paying users, but even with this FCF gets a huge boost). Either way, this is the largest material change SNAP has made for both revenue generation and operational expense cuts in history and it deserves a re-rating after. Market and hedge funds will now start to price this in since they're forward looking, but will take some time to digest the news.
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给出NBIS不同价位操作建议，并提及随新闻重估。
@heaty70 对于 $NBIS，低于 $145 是强力买入，$145-$170 区间为买入/持有。很难给出确切数字，但鉴于我在该价位卖出了 CC（看涨期权），$170 以上我会转为持有/卖出。显然，我会根据 $META / $CRWV 等新消息每周重新评估其估值。
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@heaty70 Anything under $145 for $NBIS is a strong buy, $145-$170 Buy/Hold. Hard to give a figure but I'd switch it to hold/sell at $170+ since I did sell CC's at that strike. Obviously re-rating it weekly on new news like $META / $CRWV.
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VIX未达预期且降息在即，但VIRT仍具极高对冲价值且被低估。
@jamiemints 在政府停摆期间，波动率指数(VIX) 的飙升幅度不及我预期，且目前市场预计还有两次降息。波动率与 $VIRT 高度相关。如果市场真的暴跌两周，它将是理想的对冲工具。目前其估值仍然极低。
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@jamiemints VIX didn’t spike as much as I hoped during government shutdown and now we have two more rate cuts projected. Volatility + $VIRT are highly correlated. It was the ideal hedge in case markets ended up tanking for two weeks. Still extremely undervalued.
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关注美光科技低前瞻市盈率，计划进行深入研究。
@Deenobrown123 如果美光科技($MU) 的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E) 为 11，看起来很有前景。我会仔细研究一下，我还没有做过深入分析。
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@Deenobrown123 if $MU's forward p/e is 11 looks promising. ill take a closer look, i haven't done a deep dive yet
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批评某博主推荐的中小盘股名单，指出其持仓逻辑荒谬且风险极高。
@RealJGBanks 抱歉，恕我直言这份名单糟透了，我完全无法认同。 如果 $RGTI、$OKLO、$JOBY、$OPEN、$IONQ 是你按板块划分的中小盘股首选持仓，那就祝你的粉丝组合被核爆吧。 如果有人在 $RGTI 零营收暴涨4000%之前发布这份名单，那倒还说得过去。
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@RealJGBanks Sorry but terrible list imo, couldn't disagree more. If $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $OPEN, $IONQ are your top choices of small-mid caps to own by sector, have fun nuking the portfolio of followers. If someone posted this list before $RGTI went up 4000% off 0 revenue, then sure.
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类比云业务，认为$NBIS等AI算力基建商建成后利润将超预期。
@PronkDaniel 人们曾对 AWS、Azure、GCP 等说过类似的话，但它们最终成为了“七巨头”(Mag7) 的现金牛。当你将同样的商业模式应用于 AI 算力，并聚焦于 $NBIS 等公司时，在基础设施建设完成后，其盈利能力将超出人们的预期。
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@PronkDaniel People said that about it AWS, Azure, GCP and others but they turned out to be the cash cows of Mag7. When you take the same business but for AI compute then funnel it down to $NBIS and others, it will be more profitable than people think after buildout.
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建议等待$SNAP回调，指出其云支出过高导致净利润不佳。
@capybara_830 呃，我会等待回调，但$SNAP在删除用户记忆或向用户收费后，净利润可能会大幅飙升。他们花在Google Cloud上的钱简直荒谬。他们的营收数据很漂亮，但净利润却不尽如人意。
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@capybara_830 uhh I'd wait for a pullback, but $SNAP net income will probably shoot up a ton after deleting everyone's memories or making people pay. The amount of money they spend on Google Cloud is absolutely absurd. Their revenue numbers are great, net profit not so much.
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认可RDDT和NBIS为优质云服务商
@rioferdy838 $RDDT 和 $NBIS 都是优秀的云服务提供商(CSP)，不错的选择
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@rioferdy838 Both $RDDT and $NBIS are great CSPs, good choice
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对BITF持观望态度，因研究不足暂不给明确观点。
@foogleman1234 所有新云/挖矿股可能都在买入/持有之间浮动，包括 $BITF。我还没有对它做足够的尽职调查(DD)来给出像 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 那样明确的方向性观点。
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@foogleman1234 All neocloud/miners probably float between buy/hold including $BITF. Haven’t done enough DD on it yet to give a good directional opinion like $NBIS or $CIFR.
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建议长期持有以博取类似PLTR的资本利得。
@NateWGlass 你说得对，我会选择卖出，哈哈。如果你目前持有它，不妨继续持有以获取长期资本利得，并期待它像 $PLTR 那样表现。
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@NateWGlass Ur right I'd move to sell lol. It if you're holding it currently might as well keep it for long term capital gains + pull a $PLTR.
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博主表示看好Snap，计划周一买入。
@dubiousnoob 说实话，我现在挺看好 $SNAP 的。我可能会在周一买入一些。
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@dubiousnoob Tbh I like $SNAP now. I'd probably buy some Monday
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RGTI空头回补推升股价，因属邪教股故不做空。
空头头寸此前更高 -> 空头回补 -> 股价上涨。15%的空头头寸仍被视为略高。$RGTI 今年早些时候为25.1%，现为14.4%，在拉升过程中买入10%的流通盘导致这种高市值。更多做空 -> 回补 -> 同样的趋势，因为这些都是“邪教股”。这就是我不做空邪教股的原因。
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Short interest was higher before -> SI cover -> price increased. Short interest at 15% is still considered slightly elevated. On $RGTI it was 25.1% earlier this year, now it's 14.4%, buying back 10% of the float on the ramp up causes this elevated MC. Shorting more -> cover -> same trend because these are cult stocks. This is why I don't short cult stocks
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指出IONQ和RGTI的高市值主要由空头头寸驱动。
@commonsenseplay $RGTI 是一个极佳的做空标的。但你要意识到，IONQ 和 $RGTI 市值之所以达到 130 亿美元以上，很大程度上是由空头头寸(short interest)驱动的。
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@commonsenseplay $RGTI is an amazing short. But you do realize that the reason the IONQ/RGTI marketcap is $13B+ is largely driven by short interest.
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分享某股在不同价位下的建仓、补仓及期权操作策略。
@platochi 是的。我会在 $17.35 左右买入股票。如果跌到 $16 就进行成本平均。如果跌到 $15，再跌到 $14 我会买入 LEAPS（长期期权），$12.5 买入更多看涨期权。在股价暴跌时通过期权增加杠杆显然更危险，但如果真跌到那么低，风险回报比是值得的。
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@platochi Yeah. I'd buy shares around $17.35. Cost avg if it went to $16. Again at $15, if it went to $14 I'd do leaps, $12.5 more calls. It's obviously more dangerous taking more leverage with options on a nosedive but if it ever gets that low risk-reward is worth it.
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讨论$HOOD股价突破阻力位后的获利逻辑。
@regard_capital 哦，是的，$HOOD 我也不会预料到，这很合理。无论如何，如果他们的股价大幅突破关键阻力位(Critical Strikes)，你就赚钱了，除非你是为了阻止短期资本利得而回购，否则很难抱怨。
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@regard_capital Oh yeah $HOOD I wouldn't have expected either, makes sense. Either way you made money if they blew past CC strikes so hard to complain unless you're buying back to prevent short term capital gain
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看好ETOR和VIRT的低估价值，建议作为非对称对冲配置，仓位控制在5%-30%。
我认为 $ETOR 被严重低估，市场将一家持有超10亿美元现金的经纪商定价为33亿美元市值，其复利效应堪比盈透证券(IBKR)，这高呼低估。 $VIRT 更多是对冲成长股的工具，但我认为它也被低估了。所以我称之为非对称对冲(asymmetrical hedge)，这比购买隐含波动率(IV)更高的 $VIX 要好。 我将对两者进行成本平均法(cost average)建仓，论点未变。不过请查看我关于仓位配置的其他帖子，我不会将任一标的仓位超过组合的5%，但如果信心极高，最多可分配30%。
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I think $ETOR is incredibly undervalued, market pricing a brokerage holding 1b+ cash at a 3.3B market cap, compounding like IBKR screams undervalued. $VIRT was more of a hedge against growth stocks but I think it's undervalued. So I said asymmetrical hedge which was good instead of buying $VIX with higher IV. I'll cost average both, thesis hasn't changed. Do look at my other posts around positioning though, I wouldn't give more than 5% of my portfolio to either but if there's high conviction maybe up to 30% allocation.
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博主认为导致下跌的新闻无关紧要，基于心理支撑位买入并预期反弹。
@lostinspacez0 嗯，它已经跌了29%，我只是觉得$200是一个心理支撑位，所以最终在那里买入。导致下跌的新闻也不重要，我认为它是通过训练数据收费，而不是AI广告。所以我只觉得它会反弹。
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@lostinspacez0 Well it already dropped 29% and I just felt $200 was some psychological support, so ended up buying around there. The news that caused the drop was also immaterial, it gets paid for training data, not ai ads I think So I just got the feeling it would rebound
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承认 $VIRT 择时失误，但看好其基本面与回购。
@BaronAfanas 我正在对 $VIRT 进行定投，原始头寸亏损约 30%。不过我确实错判了离场时机，这是我的失误，原本以为 $32 会是更好的入场点。部分原因是做市商(Market Maker)做空，但该股票基本面被低估，且有 3 亿美元的股票回购。
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@BaronAfanas I'm cost averaging $VIRT, original positions are down 30% or so But yeah I timed drop wrong, was my mistake, seemed like $32 would be better entry. Part of that is MM shorting but the stock is fundamentally undervalued and there's 300m in buybacks.
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RKLB市值对标SpaceX，比特币达40万美元
@sunny21704 @WaggaDoo $RKLB 3500亿美元市值对标SpaceX。比特币$40万
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@sunny21704 @WaggaDoo $RKLB 350B marketcap to match SpaceX. Bitcoin $400k
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给出RKLB一年目标价，并对比不同标的的预测周期。
@WaggaDoo $RKLB 12个月目标价$225。我没有足够的信息来给出该时间范围之外的预测。 对于像 $RKLB 或 $IBIT 这类标的，我很乐意给出5年期的预测。
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@WaggaDoo $225 PT 1 year. I don't have enough info to give predictions outside that timeframe. For stuff like $RKLB or $IBIT im happy giving 5 year predictions though
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指出微软远期估值数据有误，实际市盈率远低于表面水平。
@investnyourself 我相当确定在微软(MSFT)交易后，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)数据有误。许多远期营收数字也不准确。我估计 $MSFT 及其他超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 2026年营收为40-60亿美元，2027年为70-90亿美元。毛利率约为70%左右。我不想做具体计算，但远期市盈率远低于表面看起来的水平。
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@investnyourself Pretty sure that forward p/e figure is off after the MSFT deal. A lot of forward rev # are off too. $MSFT + other hyperscalers est. 4-6B revenue 2026, 7-9B 2027 is my guess. 70%~ ish gross margins. I dont want to do the math but forward p/e is a lot lower than it looks.
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看好DOCN转向AI云潜力，考虑建仓观察。
@jesnix7 它有潜力，因为它正在转向 AI 云。我实际上可能会在我的投资组合中加入 $DOCN，看看它的发展情况。
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@jesnix7 It has potential since it's pivoting to AI cloud. I might add $DOCN in my port actually to see where it goes
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作者持有NBIS，视估值决定操作，因长期不确定性采用短期交易框架。
我的意思是，目前 $NBIS 被低估了，我只是持有它，所以即使股价跳涨到 150 美元我也不会卖出。但如果它明天随机跳涨到 1000 亿美元市值或每股 300 美元以上，我可能会卖出并寻找低位重新买入。 这真的取决于具体情况。 五年后没人真正知道结果。超大规模云服务器芯片上线后，Neoclouds 可能会像 $SMCI 那样在季度营收超 50 亿美元时面临利润率压缩和营收增速放缓。 或者它们可能成为新的 AWS。我还无法做出这种预测，这就是为什么我采用 6 个月至 1 年的时间框架进行操作。
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I mean right now $NBIS is undervalued I'm just holding it so I wouldn't sell even if it jumped to $150. But if it randomly jumps to $100B marketcap tomorrow or $300+ a share, I would probably sell look to rebuy lower. It really depends. 5 years down the road nobody really knows. Hyperscaler chips come online, Neoclouds might pull an $SMCI at 5B+ quarterly revenue with margin compression and less revenue ramp. Or they might become the new AWS. I can't make that prediction yet, which is why I do things in 6 months -1 year timframes.
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感谢提醒关注$KSPI，认为当前是不错的买入时机。
@Shtula85361 @shravanrayhaan 哇，谢谢你们提醒我关注 $KSPI。我完全忘了这个股票代码。看起来现在是个不错的买入时机。https://t.co/CveoiwpcJh
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@Shtula85361 @shravanrayhaan Wow thanks for reminding me of $KSPI. Completely forgot about that ticker. Looks like a good buy now. https://t.co/CveoiwpcJh
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建议下跌时加仓摊低成本，超跌后转为做多。
@CQuacky74685 @Pacheca12345 我认为即使在单日下跌 5% 时，也应通过买入股票进行成本平均(Cost Average)。如果股价进一步下跌，就买入更多股票。如果跌幅远低于预期，则转为做多(Longs)。
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@CQuacky74685 @Pacheca12345 I'd say cost average with shares even on a 5% day. Buy more shares if it dips. Then switch to longs if it dips way below expectations.
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认可ConvictionLab提到的两个做多标的。
@ConvictionLab 两个都是不错的做多标的。
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@ConvictionLab both good longs
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建议不做IREN和WULF认股权证，看好CSP合作，IV高因预期交易。
@__visionxry__ 我可能不会做 $IREN 和 $WULF 的认股权证(CC)。另一方面，云服务提供商(CSP)对 IREN 来说是很好的。这些标的的隐含波动率(IV)极高是有原因的，因为人们预计交易随时会公布。
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@__visionxry__ I probably wouldn't do CC's on $IREN and $WULF. CSP's are great on the other hand for IREN. IV is extremely high for a reason on stuff because people are expecting a deal to come anytime.
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博主解释在谷歌交易及增资后建立CIFR头寸。
@philllyfanatic 是的，很明智。我仅在 $GOOGL 的交易达成以及资本增加之后，才建立了 $CIFR 的头寸。
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@philllyfanatic Yeah smart. I only built a position in $CIFR after the $GOOGL deal and capital rise too
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认为ETOR今日大跌被低估，因其高现金储备及强劲增长。
@MakhmudovAkbar 是的，$ETOR 今天跌了 5% 确实是个好机会。真心不知道为什么跌这么多，毕竟他们持有约 33% 的现金，且增长速度堪比 $IBKR。
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@MakhmudovAkbar Yeah $ETOR is great on a 5% drop today. Genuinely don't know why it's down so much given they're like 33% cash and growing at $IBKR rates.
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对比CRWV与CIFR/NBIS在Meta交易后的表现差异及估值逻辑。
$CRWV 在 Meta 交易后并没有像 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 那样大幅下跌。 CIFR 与 NBIS 相当可比，因为它们的融资价格均高于当前市值约 40% 以上，且债务较低并拥有超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的交易。 这通常适用于同一行业且相对估值相似的公司。
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$CRWV didn't really drop after the Meta deal like $CIFR and $NBIS did though CIFR is pretty comparable to NBIS in the sense they raised ~40%+ above current values and low debt + hyperscaler deals This usually applies for companies in the same sector + similar relative valuations
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HIMS 面临政府竞争，但用户粘性强且空头回补预期支撑股价。
是的，我在 $HIMS 60 美元左右减仓了，但政府与其竞争这一因素相当重大。同时我认为其用户粘性高，且下半年有 Zava 收购带来的顺风效应，加上 33% 的做空比例。因此我预计股价将在此区间徘徊，甚至可能因空头回补而上涨。它并非极度低估或高估，但目前有更好的多头标的。
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Yeah I trimmed $HIMS around $60, but this is pretty material with the government competing with it. At the same time I'd aruge the audience is sticky + they have Zava acqusition tailwind second half + 33% short interest. So I'd just expect the price to hover around these levels or maybe even increase while shorts use this time to cover. It's not extremely undervalued or overvalued but there's better longs at the moment.
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美政府停摆确认，机构已知晓，建议散户利用恐慌建立多头。
美国政府停摆已确认。正如我几小时前所料，Polymarket 几乎以 100% 的概率定价了停摆。机构和交易者早已知晓，但散户看到新闻后会恐慌。利用这个黄金机会建立多头头寸。
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US government shutdown confirmed. As I expected a few hours ago, Polymarket was pricing in almost 100% confirmation of a shutdown. Institutions and traders already know about it but retail will panic on the news. Use this golden opportunity to build long positions. https://t.co/HCkIqwCtnd
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LTC和BTC看涨，LTC因ETF和新公司有2-3倍潜力。
不太确定你具体问什么，但 LTC 和 BTC 都看涨。Tether 正在印钞购买比特币，BTC 从 12.4 万美元跌至 11.4 万美元是合理的。黄金创历史新高也有帮助。我认为我关于 LTC 的帖子是说，LTC 在 80 亿美元市值下，加上 ETF 决定和新成立的国库公司，有 2-3 倍的潜力。
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not sure about your question exactly, but ltc + btc are both bullish. Tether is printing money to buy Bitcoin now, BTC dropped from $124k to $114k which is reasonable. Gold ATH helps too. i think my post about LTC was saying LTC at a little 8b marketcap with ETF decision + new treasury companies have a lot more potential to 2-3x.
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RKLB具国家安全战略价值，因发射成功可能暴涨故不卖看涨期权。
@Neat_Lama 最大的催化剂是中程有效载荷的“中子”(Neutron)火箭。对于 $RKLB，我确实不太关心宏观经济，因为我坚信它对国家安全的重要性就像 $TSM 对台湾一样重要，加上太空领域 = 规模巨大。这就是为什么我不对 RKLB 卖出看涨期权(CC)，因为成功的发射新闻可能会让它上涨50% lol。
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@Neat_Lama biggest catalyst is medium lift payload neutron. don't really care about macro with $RKLB since I believe it's important to national security like $TSM is to Taiwan + Space = grow big. that's why i dont sell CC's on RKLB cause successful launch news could bring it up 50% lol.
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建议分批建仓NBIS，避免单日全仓买入。
@jakub_cyferski 任何时候都是好时机，只要进行成本平均(Cost Average)操作，不要在一天内全仓买入 $NBIS 即可。
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@jakub_cyferski It's always a good time, just cost average and don't all in $NBIS in a single day.
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博主表示RKLB和NBIS可占其投资组合大部分仓位。
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS 是我非常乐意让其占据我投资组合大部分仓位的标的。
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@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS is something I'd be extremely comfortable with comprising majority of my port.
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对比博通与台积电，认为台积电作为底层基础更值得投资。
@turnandburn07 $AVGO 在定制超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC)领域复刻了英伟达(NVDA)凭借GPU的崛起轨迹。在高位买入总是很难，但有时股价会持续上涨。无论如何，$TSM 是英伟达、博通(AVGO)等公司的基础，所以我更喜欢这只股票，我可能会选择买入TSM而不是AVGO。
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@turnandburn07 $AVGO mirrors nvda's ascent with GPUs but for custom hyperscaler ASICs. It's always hard to buy things at the top, but sometimes they keep going up. Either way, $TSM serves as the foundation for NVDA, AVGO, etc, so I like the stock the best and I'd prob buy TSM over AVGO
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建议采用成本平均法，认为标的被低估。
@lunapuma28 @robswainept 成本平均法。我认为它被低估了。
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@lunapuma28 @robswainept cost averaging. I think it's undervalued
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计划发布以太坊深度分析，指出L2价值回流不足及竞品分流问题。
@robswainept 没问题，我本周末会写一篇关于以太坊(Ethereum)的深度分析。这是一个非常长的论点，主要涉及第二层网络(L2)未能向以太坊主网输送与其交易量相匹配的价值，以及存在过多竞争对手（例如 Solana）或兼容 EVM 的第一层网络(L1)分流了网络活跃度。
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@robswainept Sure I'll do an Ethereum writeup this weekend. It's a really long thesis, but mainly has to do how L2 don't enough deliver value to ETH mainnet compatible to their tx and how there's too many competitors (eg. Solana) or EVM compatible L1s that siphon off network activity.