个股论点

围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 25 / 45 页

  1. DPRO作为稀缺上市CAD无人机公司,从某观点中受益。

    @digestive_bisc 错过了那个巨大的观点,谢谢。$DPRO 作为少数几家上市的计算机辅助设计(CAD)无人机公司之一,从中受益良多。

    英文原文

    @digestive_bisc Missed out on that huge point thanks. $DPRO benefits a lot from that as one of the only public CAD drone companies.

  2. 澄清估值指标,分享对PDYN及DPRO作为分包商被算法低估的看法。

    承接上文,我想说的是企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue)比率,而非上面的市销率(P/S)。不过我之前也研究过 $PDYN,这是一家有趣的公司。另外,关于 $DPRO 的帖子并没有太多新内容,因为它在 Finx 上已经很流行了。关键在于其基础设施布局+大规模产能爬坡+作为分包商(subcontractor)缺乏亮眼合同这一复杂情况,这往往能触发季度财报(Q reports)中算法可能未定价的因素。很多人忽略了这一点,所以我想分享自己的看法。

    英文原文

    Pigybacking off of this, meant to say ev/revenue not p/s above. But yeah I looked at $PDYN before too, interesting company. Also there's nothing too new with the $DPRO post since it's already popular on finx. It's just really nuanced with the infrastructure setup + large capacity ramp + no flashy contracts since it's a subcontractor -> hits Q reports that algos might not price in. A lot of people missed that aspect, so just wanted to post my own thoughts about it.

  3. 建仓$DPRO,视其为无人机战争基础设施,类比早期$RKLB,具高增长潜力。

    我建仓了少量 $DPRO(市值2.4亿美元)。 这是一家端到端的战争无人机承包商,Draganfly 看起来像是无人机领域的 $RKLB(Relativity Space)。 $ONDS 从 0.51 美元涨到 15 美元(13倍),我一直在寻找类似的标的。 以下是市场(和我自己)之前忽略的点: Draganfly 是一家垂直整合的国防主承包商,而不仅仅是无人机制造商。 $DPRO 控制着从工厂基础设施到最终无人机的整个生态系统。它是《国防授权法案》(NDAA)禁止大疆(DJI,曾占据估计 70-80% 市场份额)后的最大受益者。 我之前没理解的最大护城河:嵌入式生产(embedded production)。 我关注的是当前较小的营收数字,却忽略了他们正在美国多个基地建设分布式制造能力。 Draganfly 与美国陆军(2025年9月)的合同不仅仅是交付无人机;而是要在美国基地安装微型工厂(Micro-Factories)。 它将 Draganfly 融入美国战争部(Dept. of War)的体系中,创造出竞争对手无法取代的“粘性”。 我建仓的原因是:他们的无人机产能从 2025 年的 500 万美元跃升至 4 亿美元。 结合其与 Global Ordnance 的合作伙伴关系(作为分包商,Ordnance 获得了 7.5 亿美元 IDIQ 合同),以及 US-CAD 项目(双方均受益,如 2.2 亿美元对北约的 CAD 资金)。 $DPRO 有可能实现三位数甚至 1000%+ 的同比增长率。 而且……营收会在财报中以惊喜的方式体现在资产负债表上。 每个无人机玩家如 $AVAV、$AIRO、$ONDS 都有自己的专长,$DPRO 专注于非动能和基础设施方面: -> 瑞典等欧洲国家(2026年)使用 $DPRO 无人机进行救生行动。 -> DEF-C -> 乌克兰冲突中的侦察无人机 -> Global Ordnance(大型国防承包商) -> 美国战争部(美国陆军) 而这些非动能无人机可以转化为动能应用。 手握 5100 万美元现金(健康的资产负债表),仅 20% 的产能爬坡就对应约 2.2 倍远期市销率(p/s)。 这是一个非常投机的风险投资式押注,因为他们正在快速扩张基础设施(就像早期的 $RKLB),Northland 给出了 20 美元的目标价。 这是一种直觉,认为营收将赶上他们在美军中部署的基础设施(特别是 Replicator 项目,且直到财报发布前都是隐藏的)。 $DPRO 在 FinX 上已经很受欢迎(说服其他用户花了一些功夫),所以我个人也加入了这场狂欢,想看看它会走向何方。 TLDR:在 $DPRO 建立少量投机性头寸,因为它有望成为无人机战争的基础设施(就像 2 美元时的 $RKLB 之于太空),具有巨大的上行潜力。 由于处于极早期阶段,随着产能建设的收入确认,也存在大量风险。

    英文原文

    I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas. $ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent. Here’s what markets (and myself missed). Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production. I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y. And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings. Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect: -> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations. -> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor) -> U.S. Department of War (US Army) and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications. With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s. This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's. And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings). $DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads. TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside. As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.

  4. LPTH因美欧冲突受益,提供美国本土黑钻替代方案,当前下跌属无差别抛售。

    $LPTH 实际上是美欧冲突导致供应链中断的主要受益者之一,因为美国从德国和比利时进口大量锗(Germanium)。Lightpath 提供了瓶颈环节的替代方案,其黑钻(Black Diamond)产品 100% 在美国制造(前体也主要来自美国)。这很可能只是一次广泛的无差别抛售。

    英文原文

    $LPTH is actually one of the big benefiaries of conflicts between US and EU for supply chain disruption as US imports significant amount of germanium from Germany and Belgium. And Lightpath offers the bottleneck alternative with black diamond manufactured 100% in US (precursors mainly US too) This is probably just a wide indiscriminate selloff.

  5. 博主坦言难以抗拒将仓位全仓转入Meta的诱惑。

    @CB3409 我确实睡觉,但当我想把仓位全部转入 $META 的诱惑袭来时,这很难做到。

    英文原文

    @CB3409 I do sleep, but it’s hard to when I get the temptation to just full port it into $META

  6. 博主分享国防及半导体个股观点,计划加仓DPRO和SKYT。

    @WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 我之前发过关于 1) 供应链 2) 国防 3) 美国本土制造半导体 的帖子。但个人而言,$OSS 用于国防,$LPTH 因为那家伙特定跌了 5% 简直太蠢了。正打算加仓 $DPRO 和 $SKYT,因为它们都跌了 4-6%+。

    英文原文

    @WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 I made a post about it earlier regarding 1) supply chains 2) defense 3) made in America semis But personally $OSS for defense, $LPTH since that one dropping 5% in specific just stupid. Was looking to scale up $DPRO and $SKYT since they’re both down 4-6%+

  7. 分析AVAV、AIRO、DPRO在美军复制者计划中的角色及风险收益特征。

    $AVAV 绝对是的。它是黄金标准,并且已经是“复制者”(Replicator) 计划的一部分。(因此与 $KTOS 一起已经取得了成功) $AIRO 用于反无人机“复制者”(Replicator),具有最高的上行潜力和最低的下行风险。 我稍后会写一篇关于 $DPRO 的文章,但它让我想起了早期阶段的 $RKLB,上行空间非常具有投机性。

    英文原文

    $AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS) $AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk. I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.

  8. ONDS估值虽高,但作为独立标的仍具合理性。

    @platochi @bennybigbull 与其他无人机公司如 $AIRO 相比,$ONDS 的估值(市销率)显得昂贵(28倍 vs 2.5倍)。我想表达的是,单看它本身,这是一个合理的选股标的。

    英文原文

    @platochi @bennybigbull $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies like $AIRO (28 vs 2.5 p/s) Standalone it’s a justified pick, is what I’m trying to say.

  9. 作者认为$ONDS估值过高,建议关注其他估值更低的无人机股。

    个人而言,我觉得与其他无人机公司相比,$ONDS 的定价偏高。 我持有 $AVAV、$DPRO、$KTOS 和 $AIRO 以获取无人机领域的敞口。 (这只是我凭记忆随口一说,别太当真)Ondas 目前的前瞻性企业价值/收入倍数(Forward EV/revenue multiples)约为 28 倍以上。即使是 AVAV,作为“复制者”(Replicator)项目的一部分,其倍数也仅为 8-9 倍。 Airo 则是针对“复制者 2.0”的反无人机(Counter UAV)系统。 当我买入 $AIRO 时,其前瞻性市销率(Forward P/S)约为 2.5 倍(现在可能更高,也许是 3-4 倍)。 甚至 $DPRO 根据一些收入计算,可能也只有 2.8 倍左右。 所以在我看来,其他无人机公司有更高的上行空间。

    英文原文

    Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies. I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure. (Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondas. Even AVAV was 8-9 and they were in the replicator program. Airo was for counter UAV for replicator 2. When I bought $AIRO was trading at ~2.5 fwd p/s (probably higher now, maybe 3-4's). Even $DPRO might even be potential 2.8 from some rev calculations. So IMO higher upside with other drone companies.

  10. 建议买入错杀标的而非传统对冲,并认可CRML的稀土受益逻辑。

    我想指出一些超额收益机会:买入因错误原因下跌8%的标的(例如用于国防的美国无人机),而非像 $GLD / $SLV 这样的已知对冲工具。不过,如果讨论受益者,你提到的 $CRML 很棒,因为 Tanbreez 及其稀土矿藏。

    英文原文

    I just wanted to point out some alpha regarding buying into things down 8% for the wrong reason (eg. US drones for defense) rather than known hedges like $GLD / $SLV. But yes, if we talked about beneficiaries, your mentions like $CRML, bc of Tanbreez and all its rare earth deposits are great!

  11. 格陵兰关税引发恐慌,建议逢低买入美国防、关键材料及本土半导体股。

    美股期货因格陵兰关税新闻下跌。 许多欧洲股市热门股现下跌: $ONDS (-8.55%) 或 $RKLB (-7.65%)。 以下是如何从该局势中潜在获利的方法: 第一层:供应链 这是与北约盟友的争端。这威胁到供应链。 许多美国国防系统依赖欧洲组件(德国光学器件、英国/荷兰芯片)。格陵兰是稀土元素(REEs)的巨大潜在来源。 格陵兰受阻意味着美国必须依赖国内来源。 与欧洲的贸易战给国防承包商和其他部门带来混乱。 如果下跌,美国关键材料供应商如 $MP 或瓶颈对冲如 $LPTH 将是良好的逢低买入机会。 第二层:美国直接冲突/战争 战争板块如 ($AVAV 或 $KTOS) 实际上极具韧性,因为从根本上说,争端涉及美国国家安全。 欧洲(莱茵金属、萨博)国防股正在反弹,而美国(如 $ONDS)遭抛售。美国代码被恐惧的欧洲散户投资者错误定价。 国防股可能在“避险”恐慌初期下跌,但它们实际上最终成为与北约盟友紧张关系的主要受益者。(特朗普的事你无法预知)。 如果隔夜或盘前出现大幅下跌,如果发生无差别抛售,这可能是一个良好的买入机会。 第三层:美国半导体供应链/晶圆厂 与欧洲(特别是荷兰/ASML 和德国/蔡司)的贸易战严重损害半导体供应链。 在所有这些痛苦中,垂直整合的“美国制造”硬件公司将受益最大。 如果下跌,像 $COHR、$AMKR 或美国晶圆厂如 $INTC、$GFS 这样的公司可能是良好的逢低买入机会。 这更微妙,因为市场认为它们仍然有风险,因为许多“国内”玩家仍依赖欧洲进口(ASML 光刻、蔡司光学)来运营。 然而,这是关于供应链主权的美国国家安全,这是对美国政府不会让这些公司失败(例如英特尔的国家安全豁免)的美国政策的非对称性赌注。 可能避免: 科技/SaaS 的接飞刀,因为它们被视为“风险资产”,通常被抛售最多,除非情况极端。 _ 鉴于流动性低,欧洲市场可能正在恐慌性抛售至真空。 套利机器人可能会迫使美国隔夜价格下跌以匹配欧洲/期货的“隐含价格”。 然而,如果实际受益于该局势的板块出现跳空低开,这可能是极好的机会。 方向上,市场可能会看跌。 但预计许多这些 -7% 或 -9% 的数字将恢复到合理水平如 -1.5%,有些甚至翻正。

    英文原文

    US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news. Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down: $ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%). Here's how to potentially profit off the situation: Tier 1: Supply Chains This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains. Many US defense systems rely on European components (optics from Germany, chips from UK/Netherlands). Greenland is a massive potential source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The blockage of Greenland means the US must rely on domestic sources. A trade war with Europe creates chaos for defense contractors and other sectors. US Critical Material providers like $MP or bottleneck hedges like $LPTH would be a good dip buying opportunity if they drop. Tier 2: US Direct Conflict/War War sectors like ( $AVAV or $KTOS ) are actually extremely resilient since fundamentally, the dispute goes back to US National Security. EU (Rheinmetall, SAAB) defense stocks are rallying, while US ( eg. $ONDS ) got sold off. US tickers are being mispriced by fearful European retail investors. Defense stocks might drop initially during "risk-off" panic but they actually end up being the primary beneficiaries of the tension with NATO allies. (you never know with Trump). Any large drops (if they happen) overnight or pre-market, this might be a good buying opportunity if there's an indiscriminate selloff. Tier 3: US Semi Supply Chains/Foundry A trade war with Europe (specifically the Netherlands/ASML and Germany/Zeiss) hurts the semiconductor supply chain immensely. Through all this pain, the vertically integrated "Made in America" hardware companies would benefit the most. Companies like $COHR, $AMKR, or US foundries like $INTC, $GFS might be a good dip buy if they drop. This is more nuanced since markets think they're still risky because a lot of the "domestic" players still rely on European imports (ASML lithography, Zeiss optics) to operate. However, this is US national security for supply chain sovereignty and this is an asymmetrical bet on US policy that they won't let these companies fail (eg. National Security Exemptions for Intel). Probably avoid: Falling knives on Tech/SaaS since they're considered "risk assets" and usually get sold off the most, unless it goes extreme. _ European markets are likely panic-selling into a void, given low liquidity. The arbitrage bots might force US overnight prices down to match the "implied prices" of European/Futures. However, this might be the excellent opportunity if there's a gap-down on names on sectors that actually benefit from the situation. Directionality, markets are likely going to see red. But expect many of these -7% or -9% numbers to recover to reasonable levels like -1.5%, with some flipping positive.

  12. POET虽受散户追捧,但被视为未来互连瓶颈的替代方案。

    @train9898 $POET 不幸的是,它是 WSB/X 上散户最喜爱的十大股票之一,所以并不算是低调。但它们是未来 1-2 年内解决互连瓶颈(interconnect bottleneck)的替代方案之一。

    英文原文

    @train9898 $POET unfortunately is retail’s top 10 favorite stocks on WSB/X so not exactly under the radar. But they’re one of the workarounds to inp in 1-2 years time

  13. 看好格陵兰局势利好国防及稀土,认为对AI交易仅为噪音。

    我是一个看好格陵兰贸易紧张局势的看多者。 美国国防股如 $UAVS 和 $DPRO 可能会受益。稀土/关键材料也是如此。 但无法对 $NVO 的制药看多者、欧洲奢侈品如 $LVMH,或者可能的大科技股说同样的话。 正如你提到的,我同意这对 AI 交易来说只是噪音。

    英文原文

    I'm a bull that's excited about Greenland trade tensions. US defense like $UAVS and $DPRO are likely to benefit. Same with rare earth/critical materials. Can't say the same about the pharma bulls in $NVO, European luxury like $LVMH, or possibly big tech. As you mentioned, I agree it's just noise to the AI trade.

  14. 2026-01-18 个股论点 $LEU

    澄清LEU指HALEU,指出Centrus是美国唯一获此许可的公司。

    @hrtflutter 哎呀,$LEU 指的是 HALEU(高丰度低浓缩铀)。Centrus Energy 目前是美国唯一一家拥有将铀浓缩至 HALEU 水平许可证的公司。

    英文原文

    @hrtflutter Whoops, $LEU for HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium). Centrus Energy is currently the only company in the U.S. with a license to enrich uranium to HALEU levels.

  15. 警告勿盲目买入PLSR,因氦3分离技术未成熟且成本不明。

    特朗普的关税政策对我来说是个谜。 另外提醒一下那些认为应该无脑冲入 $PLSR 的人: - 没人知道储层中氦-3(Helium-3)的储量 - 从氦-4(Helium-4)中分离氦-3 的成本可能高得离谱(没人知道成本结构),甚至可能根本不值得尝试 他们实际上说过“目前不存在大规模分离氦-3 和氦-4 的商业技术”。 这就好比从海水中分离盐分来制造纯净水并出售。 因此,尽管坐拥潜在的金矿,其市值仍仅为 1.4 亿美元(如果他们真的尝试,预计会有大量稀释)。

    英文原文

    Trump's tariff policies are an engima to me. Also just a heads up for people who think they should ape into $PLSR - Nobody knows the volume of helium-3 in the reservoir - separating helium-3 from helium-4 might be insanely expensive (nobody knows cost structure) and it might be worthless to attempt They've actually said "no commercial technology currently exists to separate He-3 from He-4 at scale" For example separating salt from the ocean to make purified water and selling that. Hence why it's still $140m MC despite sitting on a potential gold mine (and if they do attempt it expect a TON of dilution).

  16. 探讨氦-3对量子国防的重要性,关注$PLSR的氦气储层潜力。

    它们之所以被称为瓶颈,是因为对各自垂直领域至关重要。但氦-3(He-3)对美国量子/国防产业确实如此。 $PLSR 看起来相当有趣,因为他们在明尼苏达州发现了一个氦气储层。 据说其中可能含有大量的氦-3,但我不太确定这是否属实。

    英文原文

    They're all called bottlenecks because they're critical for their specific vertical. But helium-3 definitely is for US quantum/defense industry. $PLSR seems quite interesting since they discovered a helium reservoir in Minnesota. Apparently it's possible that it contains significant amounts of Helium-3 but I'm not quite sure if it's true.

  17. 分析$FEIM因太空业务瓶颈受益,虽涨幅巨大但属小众领域。

    鉴于其太空业务敞口,我相信你会喜欢 $FEIM。 今年它已经上涨了 241%,所以我相信市场已经开始慢慢意识到瓶颈所在。 它们被 NASA 和 $LMT 大量使用。我猜测它们也被用于 SpaceX 的 Starshield,作为原子钟和时间源,以防 GPS 被干扰或摧毁。 但在我看来,这仍然是一个非常小众的领域。

    英文原文

    I'm sure you would like $FEIM given its space exposure. It's already up 241% this year so I'm sure markets have slowly started to realize the bottleneck They're heavily used for Nasa, $LMT. And my guess was SpaceX's Starshield for atomic clocks and time if GPS is jammed/destroyed. But again very niche imo.

  18. 看好$LPTH,认为美军将弃用中国锗并锁定其黑钻石材料。

    $LPTH 令人惊叹。我的核心论点是,大多数美国公司将脱离中国锗(Germanium)供应链(尤其是国防领域),并在未来两年内(大部分催化剂在此期间)采用 Lightpath 的黑钻石材料。他们拥有四年的窗口期,直到韩国 Zinc 在 2030 年开始扩产。但到那时,我假设许多供应商(如从洛克希德·马丁的“毒刺”导弹到 Andruil Ghost)的生产已锁定 Lightpath 的材料。

    英文原文

    $LPTH is incredible. My thesis is most US companies will move off China germanium supply chains (especially for defense) and use Lightpath black diamond in the next 2 years (most of the catalysts). They have a 4 year window until Korea Zinc starts ramping up in 2030. But by that time I'd assume many vendors like Lockheed Stingers to Andruil Ghost are locked into Lightpath's material for production.

  19. 借皮尔斯·摩根骨折事件,推荐做多骨科器械股SYK和ZBH。

    皮尔斯·摩根(Piers Morgan)股骨骨折: 你可能想知道如何从中获利? $SYK 生产 Gamma Nail,这是修复股骨骨折最常用的髓内钉(Intramedullary Nails)之一。 $ZBH 也生产 Natural Nail 系统以及各种用于重建粉碎性股骨骨折的接骨板系统(Plating Systems)。 鉴于收入可能增长,这些可能是不错的做多标的。

    英文原文

    Piers Morgan fractured their femur: You might be wondering how to profit off this? $SYK produces Gamma Nail, which is one of the most commonly used intramedullary nails for fixing femur fractures. $ZBH also produce the Natural Nail system and various plating systems used to reconstruct shattered femurs. These might be good longs from an uptick in revenue

  20. 指出Lightpath($LPTH)有9000万积压订单,但DoD不管理其估值。

    我只是在这里指出关键瓶颈以及身处其中的参与者。 不幸的是,我完全不知道美国国防部(DoD)的人心里在想什么。 我认为他们并不主动关心或管理市场给 $LPTH 定价的估值,因为他们不是对冲基金。Lightpath 确实有 9000 万美元的积压订单,所以他们正在接受长期订单。

    英文原文

    I'm just here to point out critical bottlenecks and the players that sit inside them. Unfortunately, I have no idea what goes on in the minds of people at DoD. I don't think they actively care or manage what valuations markets price $LPTH at since they're not a hedge fund. Lightpath does have a $90M backlog, so they are taking in longer term orders.

  21. LPTH因独家锗替代技术成美军关键单一来源供应商,具极高战略价值。

    $LPTH 不仅仅重要。 Lightpath 是美国国防部(战部)的关键故障点。 “锗”是 AI 领域的磷化铟(InP),也是洛克希德“毒刺”导弹和 Anduril Ghost / $ONDS 无人机的关键材料。 锗的价格已翻三倍(2025/26年约 $4,150/公斤+)。 美国面临需求冲击,因为美国拥有量为零: 美国有零产能(是的,韩国 Zinc 在田纳西州有项目,但直到 2030 年才投产)。 美国开采锗矿石(阿拉斯加的 Red Dog 矿),但我们没有大规模将其精炼成金属的工业能力。 60-70% 的精炼锗来自中国,其余来自加拿大(Teck)、比利时(Umicore)和俄罗斯(也被禁运)。 而且中国禁止向美国军事项目出口。 从现在(2026年1月)到 2029/2030 年,实际上没有新的国内产能上线。 需求冲击: 就在供应切断的那一刻,三个领域的需求爆炸式增长: - AI 数据中心:锗是高速光纤电缆的必需品。 - 太空:它是卫星太阳能电池(如 Starlink 等)的主要材料。 - 国防(最大的):每个 Anduril 无人机、夜视仪和导弹导引头传统上都使用锗透镜。 $LPTH 目前对五角大楼 + 美国国家安全具有生存级关键意义。你可能认为其他公司可以制造“无锗”玻璃,但这很难。 Lightpath 使用的特定材料 Black Diamond,是由美国海军研究实验室发明的。Lightpath 拥有商业化 Black Diamond 的独家许可。 如果洛克希德或雷神想要制造使用这种特定军用级锗替代品的导弹导引头,他们依法必须从 Lightpath 购买。 没有第二来源。 $LPTH 是许多先进武器的单一来源供应商。 示例 1)盟友正在囤积短程拦截器,例如“毒刺”导弹。盟友现在需要建造数千枚,但我们无法获得中国锗来制造导引头。 Lightpath 是洛克希德等公司的光学组件“单一来源”供应商。 示例 2)无人机公司制造“蓝色 UAS”(政府批准的无人机)。为了不被列入黑名单,他们必须移除中国部件。 像 $ONDS 或 $UMAC 这样的公司可能已将热成像相机供应单一来源给 Lightpath,以避免在无人机组件中使用中国供应链。 2026年(现在):中国禁止出口。美国库存极低。 2030年(最早):田纳西州的新“超级冶炼厂”(韩国 Zinc 交易)投产,实现国内锗精炼。 缺口:未来 4 年,美国没有国内金属供应。 这种情况看似荒谬,但由于美国关闭了大多数锌冶炼厂,我们意外地也关闭了锗供应。30年来,将矿石运往中国/加拿大比在这里处理 EPA 法规更便宜。 美国军方目前的处境是:拥有阿拉斯加的原始矿石,但必须请求加拿大或等待一家韩国公司(2030年)将其转化为导弹导引头。 人们认为 $LPTH 是某种廉价仙股。但它实际上现在是美国国家安全的中心。 Lightpath 是西方国家绕过锗瓶颈的主要方式,市值仅 $6.7 亿。

    英文原文

    $LPTH isn't just important. Lighpath is a critical point of failure for the US Dpt of War. "Germanium" is the AI's InP for Lockheed Stinger Missiles and Anduril Ghost / $ONDS Drones. Germanium's price tripled (~$4,150/kg+ in 2025/26). There is a demand shock since US has 0: The US has zero (Yes Korea Zinc in TN, but not until 2030). US mines germanium ore (Red Dog mine in Alaska), but we do not have the industrial capacity to refine it into metal at scale. 60-70% of refined Germanium comes from China and the rest elsewhere like Canada (Teck), Belgium (Umicore), and Russia (also banned). And China banned exports to US military programs. There is effectively no new domestic capacity coming online between now (Jan 2026) and 2029/2030. The Demand Shock: At the exact moment supply was cut, demand exploded from three sectors: - AI Data Centers: Germanium is essential for high-speed fiber optic cables. - Space: It is the primary material for satellite solar cells (Starlink, etc.). - Defense (The Big One): Every thermal Andruil drone, night vision goggle, and missile seeker head traditionally uses a Germanium lens. $LPTH Is existentially critical to the Pentagon + US National Security right now. You might think other companies can just make "germanium-free" glass, but it's hard. The specific material Lightpath uses called Black Diamond, was invented by the US Naval Research Lab. Lightpath holds the exclusive license to commercialize BLack Diamond. If Lockheed or Raytheon wants to build a missile seeker that uses this specific, military-grade germanium replacement, they legally have to buy it from Lightpath. There is no second source. $LPTH is the Sole Source supplier of many advanced weapons. Example 1) Allies are stockpiling Short Range Interceptor, eg. Stinger Missiles. Allies need to build thousands more now, but we can't get the Chinese germanium to build the seekers. Lightpath is the "sole source" supplier for the optical assembly for companies like Lockheed. Example 2) Drone companies build "Blue UAS" (government-approved drones). To stay off the blacklist, they must remove Chinese parts. Companies like $ONDS or $UMAC have likely sole-sourced their thermal camera supply to Lightpath to not use Chinese supply chains in their drone components. 2026 (Now): China bans exports. US stockpiles are critically low. 2030 (Earliest): The new "Super Smelter" in Tennessee (Korea Zinc deal) comes online to refine germanium domestically. The Gap: For the next 4 years, the US has no domestic metal. This situation seems absurd, but since the US closed most of its Zinc smelters, so we accidentally closed our Germanium supply with them. And for 30 years, it was cheaper to ship the ore to China/Canada than to deal with EPA regulations to refine it here. The US military is currently in a position where it has the raw ore in Alaska but has to ask Canada or wait for a Korean company (in 2030) to turn it into a missile seeker. People think $LPTH some cheap penny stock. But it's actually central to US national security now. Lightpath it's the main way around the Germanium chokepoint for Western countries at a small $670M MC.

  22. 看好SpaceX创始人埃隆推动公司市值达万亿。

    @RKLBMan 埃隆正不惜一切代价试图让市值达到1万亿美元! 我很想看到这一幕成真,他是我们这一代的爱迪生。

    英文原文

    @RKLBMan Elon is trying to hit $1T by any means necessary! I’d be interested in seeing it happen, the guy is the modern Edison of our generation

  23. 英特尔因涉国家安全获两党支持,政策利好预期持续。

    @traderofstox 我认为关于 $INTC 的问题在于,确保美国本土制造能力(如《芯片法案》)是两党共识。而采取持有10%股份等方式则不然。无论如何,鉴于英特尔已成为国家安全问题,预计其支持将在任何政府任期内持续。

    英文原文

    @traderofstox I think the issue regarding $INTC is bipartisan ensuring American domestic capability like CHIPS act. Other ways like taking a 10% stake, not so much. Either way support is expected to continue in any administration since Intel is now a national security issue.

  24. 看好三星、台积电和英特尔,认为2026年三者均将大幅跑赢大盘。

    我持有三星、$TSM 和 $INTC 的敞口。它们就像火、水和草系初始宝可梦,选哪个都不会错。- 三星:在存储和代工领域拥有高上行空间,正在承接台积电的溢出订单。- $TSM:拥有惊人的盈利能力/增长,且被广泛使用,产能已满载。- $INTC:基本上由美国政府兜底下行风险,一旦完成建设,相对于 $TSM 有巨大的上行空间。我相信它们在2026年都会大幅跑赢大盘。

    英文原文

    I have Samsung, $TSM, and $INTC exposure. They're like Fire, Water, and Grass starter Pokemon, can't go wrong with any. - Samsung you have high upside with memory + foundry capturing overflow from TSM. - $TSM, has insane profitability/growth + everyone uses them and they're maxed out. - $INTC is basically US gov capping downside risk + large upside to $TSM once they finish buildout. I'm sure they'll all strong outperform 2026.

  25. 基于美国政策补贴和高确信度,看好Intel长期追赶台积电的7倍回报潜力。

    $INTC 基本上就是半导体界的 $RKLB(对应 SpaceX),也是我最大的持仓之一。 众所周知,随着 Nvidia 到 Apple 等巨头的支持,它终将赶上 TSM,成为美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。 这只是时间问题。 在 $2340 亿美元市值($TSM 为 1.5 万亿美元)下,仅凭等待就能获得约 7 倍回报。 无论是 2 年还是 10 年,我坚信 Intel 是市场中罕见的机会:你可以投资白宫,以及用无限印钞机补贴现金消耗型晶圆厂开发。 半导体市场并非赢家通吃,总可寻址市场 (TAM) 将持续增长,$TSM 是很好的长线标的,但当 Intel 产能可用时,从 Google 到 Nvidia 的美国超大规模云服务商将承受使用 Intel 的压力。 美国不会让 Intel 失败,这是基于美国政策的高确信度长线投资。

    英文原文

    $INTC is basically the $RKLB to SpaceX and is one of my biggest positions. Everyone knows it will catch up to TSM as the de-facto semi arm of the US government with Nvidia to Apple backing it. It’s more of a matter of time. At a $234B MC ( $TSM is $1.5T), ~7X return just for waiting. Whether it’s in 2 years or 10 years, I strongly believe Intel is one of the rare opportunities in the market where you can invest in the White House and infinite money printer subsidizing the cash burning foundry development. It’s not winner takes all, the TAM of semis will keep going up, $TSM is a great long, but US hyperscalers from Google to Nvidia would be pressured to use Intel when available. United States won’t let Intel fail, this is a high conviction long on US policy.

  26. AAOI作为垂直整合玩家,受益于美国制造及云厂商扩张。

    @yianisz 同意,$AAOI 是少数几家美国垂直整合玩家之一。显然,主要挑战在于实现规模化,但它极大地受益于“美国制造”的顺风——即 $MSFT、$AMZN 等超大规模云服务商的产能扩张。

    英文原文

    @yianisz Agreed, $AAOI is one of the rare US vertical integration players. Obviously with this, main challenge is getting it to scale, but it benefits a lot from Made in America tailwinds -> $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler ramps.

  27. AXTI获买入评级及政策利好,验证其在AI基建中的关键地位。

    这是一个中性进展。Craig-Hallum 对 $AXTI 给出 $26 目标价“买入”评级,以及特朗普关于磷化铟(InP)供应控制的行政令,只是再次确认了投资逻辑。大多数人一个月前在 $14 时认为 AXT 只是一只被炒作后抛售的 $600m 仙股,因为当时我是少数提及它的人。这类后续新闻进一步验证了 InP 和 AXT 在 AI 基础设施建设中扮演的关键角色。

    英文原文

    It's a neutral development. Craig-Hallum's $AXTI $26 PT "Buy" analyst report and Trump's executive order for InP supply control is just reaffirming the thesis. Majority of people thought AXT was just a pump/dump $600m penny stock a month ago at $14 since I was one of the only people to mention it. Follow-up news like this just validates how critical of a role both InP and AXT plays in the AI buildout.

  28. 指出对WULF和APLD的关注多为套利而非真实做空。

    @Mr_Derivatives 提醒一下其他人,其中很多细节很微妙。对于像 $WULF 或 $APLD 这样的数据中心公司,大量的关注仅仅是为了对冲/可转换票据套利,而非真正的做空。

    英文原文

    @Mr_Derivatives Just a heads up to the others, a lot of it is nuanced. With data centers like $WULF or $APLD, a lot of interest is just hedging / convertible note arbitrate and not actual shorts

  29. 因AI供应链机会成本高而不看好Adobe等,认为逆趋势难且非其偏好。

    个人而言,我并不看好!这并非因为估值(即使打折后)问题,主要是机会成本,因为国防(如无人机)以及从存储到材料的AI供应链都有太多顺风因素。 我认为未来十年很难再看到像今年这样的一年,随机商品材料如磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)竟成为AI/光子学关键材料,且总地址市场(TAM)增长4000%+。 我认为如果分析师能比其他人更早识别出这些机会,这就好比现代淘金热。 话虽如此,像$ADBE、$CRM等公司可能会看到20%的反弹(你可以用期权来加杠杆),但很难逆趋势而行,这也不是我的菜。

    英文原文

    Personally, not really! It’s not due to valuations (even if discounted) but mainly opportunity cost since there’s so many tailwinds with defense like drones as well as AI supply chains from memory to materials. I don’t think we’ll see another year like this in a decade where random commodity materials like Indium Phopshide end up becoming critical for AI/photonics and TAM goes up 4000%+. I think if analysts are able to identify them before others due, it’s like the modern gold rush. That being said sure companies like $ADBE, $CRM and others might see a 20% rebound (and you can play options for leverage) but harder to fight the trend + not my cup of tea.

  30. 2026-01-16 个股论点 $FIG

    软件板块恐慌性抛售中,$FIG等公司因AI增效仍具价值。

    是的,这次抛售确实令人印象深刻。但由于软件板块正遭受无差别的抛售,恐惧中蕴藏着大量机会。即便有AI,我确信人们仍会使用像$FIG(3个月跌幅53.3%)这样的公司,AI只是让它们的工作效率更高。其他一些公司更有投资逻辑,关键在于在广泛抛售中识别出哪些受影响、哪些未受影响。

    英文原文

    Yeah the selloff is impressive. But there’s a ton of opportunities on fear since software is being sold off indiscriminately. Even with AI, I’m pretty sure people will still use companies like $FIG (-53.3% 3M), it just makes them more productive on there. Others make more sense, just need to identify what’s impacted and what’s not during the broad selloff

  31. 重申NBIS和VLN的投资逻辑,认为市值将回归基本面。

    我的投资逻辑应该能自行验证,无需我发帖。我对 $NBIS 在 2026 年的观点与去年完全一致。 $VLN 也是如此,目前市值约 2 亿美元,对应 8000 万美元远期营收,毛利率 63%,基本处于 1.2 亿美元的估值水平。 一旦做市商停止因今日全市场期权大规模到期而进行的操纵小动作,市值应该会回归基本面。

    英文原文

    Thesis should play out by itself without me posting. My thesis with $NBIS for 2026 hasn't changed at all since last year. Same with $VLN, it's basically sitting on $120m off $200m MC right now doing $80m forward revenue, 63% gross margins. MC should catch up to fundamentals once market makers stop with their shenanigans from mass OI expiry today across the board.

  32. 看好自杀式无人机板块,认为市值将追随技术演进。

    @Nerd_0ne 从 $AVAV 到 $AIRO 的自杀式无人机真的酷毙了。我认为市值最终会跟随技术路线,就像 $RKLB 那样!

    英文原文

    @Nerd_0ne Kamikaze drones from $AVAV to $AIRO are really cool. I think the marketcaps follow the tech eventually like $RKLB!

  33. $AIRO因五角大楼“复制者”计划中拦截无人机需求激增而受益,看好其大规模生产潜力。

    $AIRO 现已上涨 76.07%。 自最初发帖以来,我认为它几乎没有出现过超过 1 天的下跌(红盘)。 简单论点 TLDR:它是五角大楼“复制者(Replicator)”计划的核心,该计划旨在部署数千架低成本、可消耗无人机。 他们的“子弹无人机”基本上用于拦截无人机或巡航导弹。 并将其摧毁。 鉴于战争正转向无人机,$AIRO 仅仅因为拦截和摧毁其他大规模生产无人机所需的“子弹无人机”的巨大数量而受益。 大家都在大规模生产无人机? -> 你需要有人大规模生产能摧毁那些无人机的无人机。 大规模生产 = 更高的收入,因此做多 $AIRO

    英文原文

    $AIRO is now up 76.07%. Don’t think it’s had more than 1 red day since the original posts. Simple thesis TLDR: central to Pentagon "Replicator", which aims to field thousands of low-cost, disposable drones. Their “bullet drone” basically intercepts drones or cruise missiles. And destroys them. Given warfare is moving to drones, $AIRO just benefits from the sheer, sheer amount of bullet drones needed to intercept and destroy the mass production of other drones. Everyone mass producing drones? -> You need someone to mass produce drones that destroy those drones. Mass production = higher revenue, hence long $AIRO

  34. 因现代汽车机器人业务敞口间接,博主选择$SSYS作为替代。

    @ChiefLiquidity 我非常非常喜欢波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)。然而现代汽车(Hyundai)是一家庞大的公司,你无法通过它获得对其机器人业务板块的最直接敞口。因此我选择了 $SSYS。不过我确实通过韩国ETF间接持有了现代汽车。

    英文原文

    @ChiefLiquidity So I really really like Boston dynamics. However Hyundai is a massive company and you aren’t getting the most direct exposure to their robotics vertical. Hence why I opted with $SSYS. I do have indirect exposure to them through Korean ETFs though

  35. SSYS作为人形机器人骨架供应商,受OpenAI新闻催化值得关注。

    $SSYS 是一只非常有趣的股票,因为它承担了波士顿动力“Atlas”和 Meta 人形机器人等所有人形机器人的**机体框架(骨架)**。其未来走势取决于机器人技术的普及(爬坡)进程,虽然全面启动可能需要时间,但也可能已经开始了!无论如何,我认为昨天关于 OpenAI 的新闻是一个绝佳的**催化剂**。

    英文原文

    $SSYS は、ボストン・ダイナミクスの「Atlas」やMetaのヒューマノイドなど、あらゆる人型ロボットの**機体フレーム(骨格)**を担っているため、非常に興味深い銘柄です。 今後の展開はロボティクスの普及(ランプアップ)次第であり、本格的な立ち上がりには時間がかかるかもしれませんが、あるいは今まさに始まっている可能性もあります!いずれにせよ、昨日のOpenAIに関するニュースは、絶好の**カタリスト(材料)**になったと考えています。

  36. 2026-01-16 个股论点 $OSS

    澄清OSS看涨逻辑基于最新使用数据,强调当前与过去的实质差异。

    刚看到这条帖子,感谢提及!我只是对公众信息进行综合整理,而市场经常忽略这些信息。 @pepemoonboy 也是值得关注的博主! 很多人说“我去年就发现了”。 我关于 $OSS 的逻辑是基于上周在委内瑞拉的使用情况或新出现的信息。 人们可能三年前就提过这些股票代码,但现在做多与当时相比,存在实质性的差异。

    英文原文

    Just saw this post, thanks for credit! I just do information synthesis with pubic info that markets miss a lot of times. @pepemoonboy is an amazing follow as well! A lot of people are saying “I found this last year”. My thesis around $OSS was usage last week in Venezuela or with new information that comes out. People can mention the tickers even three years ago but there’s material differences why it’s a good long now compared to back then.

  37. 澄清SSYS异动源于算法追踪,并指出其从垂死硬件转型为人形机器人核心框架。

    绝对不是哈哈。那是高频交易(HFT)或机构算法在操作 $SSYS。我注意到它们现在会追踪我的 X 帖子。 此外,我确实发布了很多新信息的发现/综合。这家公司曾被定价为一家垂死的硬件公司,但现在它们很可能是每个人形机器人的框架。

    英文原文

    Definitely not lol. That’s HFT or institutional algorithms with $SSYS. I’ve noticed that they track my X posts nowadays Also I do post quite a lot of new information discovery/synthesis. This was priced as a dying hardware company but now they’re the likely frame of every humanoid robot.

  38. 2026-01-16 个股论点

    澄清供应链观点,看好Harmonic Drive人形机器人业务长期前景。

    @TheMaximu5 这条帖子讨论的是美国供应链的角度。Harmonic Drive 是一家日本公司。 根据他们上一季度的财报电话会议,他们正在针对人形机器人订单迅速扩大产能,因此我认为在当前价位长期持有是一个很好的选择。 https://t.co/E0DECC8Y3i

    英文原文

    @TheMaximu5 This post was about the US supply chain angle. Harmonic Drive is a Japanese company. They're scaling up rapidly on humanoid orders from their previous earnings call so my opinion is that it's a great long at these levels. https://t.co/E0DECC8Y3i

  39. ChatGPT入局助推机器人规模化拐点,$SSYS因结构框架优势受益。

    问得好!以下是时间线及变化: -> 特朗普当选后的“美国优先”政策 -> 中美贸易紧张局势,促使像 Bambu 这样的公司转向美国供应链($SSYS 是认证垄断者)。 -> 2024-2025年左右,波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)从液压版 Atlas 转向电动版 -> 从重型液压系统转变为使用 $SSYS 的轻量化结构框架(lightweight structural frames)。 -> Meta 人形机器人等其他研究原型也开始效仿。 -> 2024-2025年人形机器人/机器人领域尚无规模化。 -> ChatGPT 今天宣布进军机器人领域(他们通常处于领先地位,例如确保内存容量) -> 我们现在可能已经触及机器人行业的拐点,此前处于原型阶段(使用 $SSYS 作为轻量化结构框架)的所有公司现在开始规模化。 -> $SSYS 受益于机器人的规模化。

    英文原文

    Amazing question! So here's the timeline and what changed: -> America first policies after Trump election -> China-US trade tensions, led to companies going to US supply chains ( $SSYS is certification monopoly) from companies like Bambu. -> 2024-2025ish, Boston Dynamics pivoted from hydraulic Atlas to electric version -> changed from heavy hydraulics to lightweight structural frames using $SSYS. -> Other research prototypes from Meta Humanoids to others started following suit. -> There was no scale on humanoids/robotics in 2024-2025. -> ChatGPT announced their push into robotics today (they're usually leading the charge, eg. securing memory capacity) -> We've now likely hit the inflection point for robotics, where all these companies formerly in the prototyping stage (with $SSYS as the lightweight structural frame) are now scaling. -> $SSYS benefits robotics at scale.

  40. 批评MSTR将资金投向非核心资产而非比特币。

    @noel_moore 这相当于 $MSTR 使用 10 亿美元投资者资金,将其投入 Kylie Jenner 的化妆品公司,而不是比特币。

    英文原文

    @noel_moore This is the equivalent of $MSTR using $1B of investor funds and putting it into Kylie Jenner’s makeup company instead of Bitcoin.

  41. 揭露BMNR挪用资金投糖果公司,涉嫌欺诈。

    这其实是真实的 $BMNR: ->说服投资者给你资金,用于购买5%的以太坊供应 ->将其命名为“5%的炼金术” ->声称“以太坊将涨至1万美元以上” ->将2亿美元投资者资金转移至Mr. Beast的巧克力糖果棒公司。 https://t.co/fAHP7Vp8Uj

    英文原文

    This is actually real $BMNR: ->convince investors to give you funds to buy 5% of Ethereum supply -> call it “The Alchemy of 5%” -> say “Ethereum is going to 10k+” -> divert $200 Million of investor funds into Mr. Beast’s chocolate candy bar company. https://t.co/fAHP7Vp8Uj

  42. 看好SYSS机器人规模化前景及低下行风险,视为对未来的押注。

    鉴于2025年尚无任何机器人玩家实现规模化,我看待 $SYSS 时更着眼于机器人规模化前景,而非过往财报。我认为2026年可能是机器人的拐点,这也是我买入该股的原因。 现金占比超1/4,无债务,下行风险较低。 由于他们也提供零部件(如 Ghost Robotics + 材料),在规模化过程中每生产一台机器人他们都能获利。但目前整体规模非常有限,因此这更多是对机器人未来的押注。

    英文原文

    I’m more forward looking toward robotics scale up on $SYSS than looking at previous earnings given lack of any robotic player at scale in 2025. I do think 2026 might be the inflection point for robotics, which is why I entered this stock. More than 1/4th cash, no debt, gives it lower downside risk. As they do components as well eg. ghost robotics + material, they make money for each robot produced on scale up. But the scale of everything is so limited right now, so this is more of a bet on the future of robotics

  43. 推荐$NODE作为无需再平衡和选股的便捷投资工具。

    @matthew_sigel ^. 此外,$NODE 是一种无需担心投资组合再平衡和个股挑选即可获取敞口的绝佳方式。https://t.co/hNThPPqP5u

    英文原文

    @matthew_sigel ^. Also $NODE is a great way to get exposure without worrying about portfolio rebalancing and stock picking. https://t.co/hNThPPqP5u

  44. AXTI 大涨,看好人形机器人量产前的 SSYS 瓶颈机会。

    @pepemoonboy 是的,我关于 $AXTI 的 AI 瓶颈观点表现不错。自发布以来上涨 78%,今天又涨了 20%。AI 瓶颈已经相当明显,但像 $SSYS 这样的机器人瓶颈环节非常低调,直到 Atlas 到 Optimus 的人形机器人量产爬坡。 https://t.co/tAgC1q7bss

    英文原文

    @pepemoonboy Yeah my AI bottleneck one in $AXTI has been doing well. Up 78% since posting and 20% today. AI bottlenecks are pretty obvious but robotics ones like $SSYS are very under the radar until humanoid production from Atlas to Optimus ramp up. https://t.co/tAgC1q7bss

  45. 惊讶政客发现冷门机器人瓶颈股SSYS。

    @FarmerJoe0x 是的,Debbie 买的所有东西看起来都涨了 300%-700% 哈哈。新的 Nancy。 $SSYS 在机器人瓶颈领域如此冷门,以至于我极度惊讶一位政客竟然发现了它。

    英文原文

    @FarmerJoe0x Yeah everything Debbie bought looks like it went up 300%-700% lol. The new Nancy. $SSYS is so obscure in the robotics bottleneck so I’m extremely surprised a politician found it.

  46. SSYS作为人形机器人骨架,其收入增长取决于行业规模化进程。

    我不知道。没有(具体标的)。 $SSYS 基本上是人形机器人的框架/骨架,其收入增长取决于机器人规模化进程。 如果波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)的 Atlas、Optimus 或其他产品实现规模化,那么收入将呈指数级增长。 目前尚无机器人玩家实现规模化,因此此前的收入一直较低。 但这只是我个人关于如何在机器人规模化进程中获取最大非对称收益的想法。

    英文原文

    I don't know. Don't have one. $SSYS basically the frame/skeleton of humanoid robots and revenue ramp depends on robotics scale up. If Atlas from Boston Dynamics or Optimus or others achieves scale, then revenue increases exponentially. No robotics player achieved anything at scale yet, hence why revenue's been lower so far. But this is just my personal thought regarding getting the most asymmetry on the robotics ramp.

  47. 基于OpenAI机器人业务推动,看好SSYS作为人形机器人骨架供应商的长线潜力。

    @pepemoonboy 谢谢!我只是在 OpenAI 机器人业务推动后,根据公开信息关注 $SSYS。自从我发帖以来,它已经上涨了 6%。但这是一个很好的长线标的,因为他们是所有人形机器人的骨架/框架。

    英文原文

    @pepemoonboy Thanks! I'm just following public information after the OpenAI robotics push for $SSYS. It was already up 6% since I posted. But this one is a great long as they're the skeleton/frames of all the humanoid robots.

  48. SSYS消息公布后已大涨,推测政客提前知情。

    @SlumberMD $SSYS 自该消息公布以来已经上涨了相当可观的幅度。我只是在跟随公开信息,但我确信政客们提前就知道了。https://t.co/fRE8n2gyTU

    英文原文

    @SlumberMD $SSYS was already up quite a decent amount since this news got published. I'm just following public information, but I'm sure politicians know ahead of time. https://t.co/fRE8n2gyTU

  49. 指出$ETOR客户反馈不佳,但提供简化指标供参考。

    @LongInnovation $ETOR 的客户反馈并不理想。话虽如此,我只是以易于理解的 TLDR(太长不看)格式发布一些信息指标。人们可以随意使用这些信息。

    英文原文

    @LongInnovation $ETOR customer feedback isn’t great. That being said I’m just posting info metrics in a TLDR format that makes things easy to understand. People can do whatever they want with the information

  50. 反驳看空观点,指出ETOR回本快且SPY成分股业绩强劲。

    @ShortsHoward 呃,$ETOR 基本上能在 3.9 年内收回其企业价值(EV)。大多数 $SPY 成分股公司的平均交易市盈率为 22 倍。鉴于其资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长了 76%,它们显然并未陷入困境。

    英文原文

    @ShortsHoward Uh $ETOR basically makes their EV back in 3.9 years. Most $SPY companies are trading 22x avg. They’re not exactly dying given their AUM grew 76% y/y