方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 651 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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澄清ROE与股价回报区别，预计2026年受AI支出和降息驱动表现异常。
两点： 1. 混淆利润率与总可寻址市场(TAM) 2. 你的陈述将净资产收益率(ROE)与股市回报混为一谈。 你说得对，收益=允许的ROE×费率基数(rate base)，且受监管公用事业的ROE是有上限的。不需要允许的ROE上升，只需费率基数爆炸式增长即可（现在正是如此，因为超大规模云服务商正在为电网升级买单）。 主要的一点是，单一指标ROE并不等同于多维度的股票表现。 股票百分比回报由每股收益(EPS)、降息带来的市盈率(P/E)扩张、未来预期增长（特别是关注来自AI推理+资本支出周期的数据中心增长）驱动。 鉴于巨大的AI支出加上降息顺风，我预计2026年将是异常值。
英文原文
Two things: 1. Mixing up profit margin with TAM 2. Statement you made conflates ROE with stock market returns. You're correct in saying earnings = allowed roe × rate base and roe is capped for regulated utilities. Don't need allowed roe to go up, just rate base to explode (it is now since hyperscalers are paying for grid upgrades) The main thing is that one specific metric ROE, does not equate to multifaceted stock performance. Stock % returns are driven by EPS, P/E expansion from rate cuts, future expected growth (especially looking at DC growth from AI inference + capex cycle). Given the massive AI spend coupled with rate cut tailwinds, I expect 2026 to be the anomaly.
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指出AI预测偏差，强调基本面优于技术分析。
并非如此，Gemini 只是非常自信地给出了错误答案。我刚才试着问了它类似的问题，结果偏差极大。 基本上，图表呈现直线上升的原因是分析师预测（大语言模型并未对此进行训练）显示，SK海力士明年的净利润将超过 $AAPL。 SK海力士仍是一家市值约 4300 亿美元的公司，而苹果为 3.7 万亿美元。此外，三星的净利润更是天文数字。 因此，估值重估（Repricing）可能还有很长的路要走。 基本面 > 技术分析(TA)。
英文原文
Not really, Gemini is just very confidently wrong. I tried asking it similar questions just now and they were super off. Basically reason it's a straight line up is because analyst projections (which LLMs haven't trained on), projects that Sk Hynix makes more net income than $AAPL next year. SK Hynix is still a ~$430B company compared to $3.7T. Then Samsung net income is just astronomical. There's likely a long way to go for repricing. Fundamentals > TA.
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利用时区差异进行韩国指数与SK海力士的统计套利，揭示市场低效。
交易思路： 利用韩国 $EWY 期货（美盘）与 SK 海力士（欧盘）的时区差异，进行多市场套利。 如果 $EWY 大幅上涨而 SK 海力士（HY9H）走势平稳： > 买入法兰克福上市的 SK 海力士是一种统计套利。 因为相较于欧洲单只股票，$EWY 的美国期货定价更为准确。 该交易逻辑是——如果美国期货上的韩国指数大幅上涨： -> 鉴于指数集中度高，SK 海力士个股有很大概率跟随上涨（甚至更多）。 本质上是指数与成分股的相关性加上统计套利，并非无风险套利。 我在“淋浴思考”频道举过一个例子：当 $EWY 上涨约 3.8% 时，SK 海力士欧盘仅上涨 0.4%。 > 我预期 SK 海力士 HY9H（当时走势平稳且欧元价差较小）会弥补美国期货与法兰克福市场之间的延迟，并在次日定价。 我能在收盘前获得不错的成交，且未大幅推动股价，然后在当天或下一个欧洲交易日卖出，获利几个百分点。 总结： 外国股票中存在与时区相关的低效现象。 这些思路在被他人发现前可能是金矿。但这个具体思路在太多人看到后可能已经失效。 但市场低效确实存在。
英文原文
Trade idea: Korean $EWY Futures (US) -> SK Hynix (EU) time zone, multi-venue arbitrage. If EWY is up a lot while SK Hynix (HY9H) is flat: > Buying SK Hynix Frankfurt is a statistical arbitrage. as US futures in $EWY are accurate compared to EU single stock. The trade was - if Korean Indexes on US futures go up by a large amount: -> SK Hynix individually has a high probability of going up by similar amounts (if not more) given high index concentration. Basically index to component correlation + statistical arbitrage, not risk-free arbitrage. One example I posted in my shower thoughts channel was when $EWY was up ~3.8% then SK Hynix EU was only up .4%. > My expectation was SK Hynix HY9H (which was close to flat + spread on EUR) would play catchup to the delay between US futures and Frankfurt > be priced in the next day. Was able to get a decent amount of fill near close before moving the stock too much, then sell same day or next EU trading day for a few percent gain. TLDR: Time-zone related inefficiencies can be found across foreign equities. These ideas can be a gold mine before it gets discovered by others. This idea in specific is now likely gone after too many people see this. But, market inefficiencies do exist.
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以$XLU为例展示期权高杠杆效应，并提示其高风险。
举个例子说明 $XLU 的杠杆效应——当股价为 43.6 美元时，你可以在较高行权价以 0.6 美元的溢价买入期权合约。名义敞口可能达到 72 倍，因此如果期权变为实值(ITM)，你可以用 60 美元控制价值 4360 美元的股票。2 倍杠杆无法达到这种效果。当然，期权交易风险极高，我只是分享我的看法。我相信其他人可以根据整体逻辑，在电力板块中找出其他方向性多头标的，如果其中有一两个赢家出现的话。
英文原文
So just to give you an example on leverage with $XLU - you can buy contracts for 60 cent premium at higher strikes when the stock price is $43.6. The notional exposure might be 72 times, so you can control $4360 worth of stock for $60 if it goes ITM. 2x leverage doesn't quite get to that. But of course the option play is extremely risky, I just wanted to share my thoughts. I'm sure others can come to other directional longs based on the overall thesis if there's one or two winners in the power basket.
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对电力电网板块2026年拐点的定量拆解。
可能还有其他人在我2-3天前在淋浴思考频道和公共时间线（引用推文）发布原始论点后买入。这更多是对为何我认为2026年可能是电力/电网板块拐点的一个定量拆解。之前只是高层级的方向性思维过程。
英文原文
Probably other folks who bought it since I posted the original thesis 2-3 days ago in my shower thoughts channel and public timeline too (quoted post). This was just more of a quantitative breakdown on why I think 2026 might be the inflection point for power/grid plays. Before was just a high level directional thought process.
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通过图表目测隐含波动率，利用定价错误加速看涨期权收益。
IV（隐含波动率）是衡量隐含波动程度的指标。你可以通过图表大致进行目测检验。$EWY 每天的波动幅度，甚至超过那些高波动率公司（例如 $MRVL，波动率55%）一周内的波动。有时波动率会被错误定价，如果你能发现这一点，当市场正确重新定价波动率时，你的看涨期权（Calls）上涨速度会快于正常水平。
英文原文
IV is a measurement of implied volatility. You can kinda eyeball test it based on the chart. $EWY moves more in every day than companies with volatility (eg. $MRVL 55%) does a within a week. Sometimes volatility is priced wrong and if you spot that, your calls go up faster than normal when market markets price in volatility correctly.
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建议关注前瞻性需求而非历史收入。
@bilbooo__ 关注前瞻性的需求爬坡，而非过往的收入确认。 https://t.co/WygqbUueG8
英文原文
@bilbooo__ Look at forward demand ramp, not previous revenue recognition. https://t.co/WygqbUueG8
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作者分享基于宏观催化剂和供应链映射的主动行业轮动对冲策略。
我不会对少数个股采取死守策略并沿途进行对冲。我通过行业轮动来调整投资组合集中度，以此实现个人对冲。例如，伊朗/美国紧张局势升温时，$CVX / $XLE 及国防板块可能上涨，我会减仓其他权重。这些是天然对冲而非看跌期权，只要上涨多于下跌，这就很有效。例如，格陵兰和平协议达成后 -> 减仓 $OSS 及相关军事关联板块。谷歌资本开支指引发布后 -> 增加半导体贸易/光子学BOM（物料清单）的敞口。我认为你更关注像 $TE、$QS 这样的小盘股，而我的投资组合在半导体供应链瓶颈和能源之间分配。策略可能大不相同，我的策略是基于宏观催化剂、供应链映射和盈利预测的极度主动管理。
英文原文
I don't do your hold for dear life strategy with a few individual stocks and hedge along the way. I personally hedge by shifting portfolio concentration by doing sector rotation. For example Iran/US tensions $CVX / $XLE and likely defense goes up, trim other weightings. These are natural hedges rather than puts, and as long as more things go green then red, it's effective. Post-greenland peace deal for example -> trim $OSS and related sector correlation to military. Post Google capex -> up exposure to semi trade/photonics BOM. I think you focus more on small cap like $TE, $QS where my portfolio is split between semi supply chain bottlenecks + energy. Strategy would probably be a lot different, mine is extremely active management based on macro catalysts, supply chain mapping, and earning forecasts.
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高波动个股大涨，提示需调整组合权重以应对波动。
这只是市场里平平无奇的一天，从 - $OSS +26.23% 到 - $LPTH +21.0% 单日涨幅超过20%。 最重要的一课是：如果像 $AXTI 这样的高贝塔(高波动率)个股的波动让你难以忍受，那可能是你的投资组合权重配置错了。 https://t.co/VaF3fm4MuN
英文原文
Just your average day in the market with everything from - $OSS +26.23% to - $LPTH +21.0% Going up 20%+ in a day. Most important lesson is that if it’s hard to stomach volatility with these high beta names like $AXTI, maybe your portfolio weighting is wrong. https://t.co/VaF3fm4MuN
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博主分享通过时间滞后套利发现隐含波动率异常并深入研究的经历。
@yomattyboi 我当时正在对部分亚洲股票进行时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrage)，偶然发现了这个。隐含波动率(IV)乍一看与实际波动率(volatility)相比显得不对劲，于是我便深入查看了一下。
英文原文
@yomattyboi I was doing time lag arbitrage with some Asian equities so stumbled across this by random. IV just didn’t look right at first glance compared to volatility so took a deeper look
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指出$EWY期权定价错误，利用算法偏差获取维加扩张收益。
做市商可能很讨厌我。 $EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)在5天内从32%升至42%（基于2年期LEAPS期权）。 仅凭IV/维加(Vega)扩张就能获得约30%以上的免费利润。 衍生品中偶尔会出现套利机会。 算法并不总是能正确定价。 https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
英文原文
Market makers probably hate me. $EWY IV went from 32% -> 42% in 5 days on 2 year leaps. Would be a free ~30%+ profit off IV/vega expansion alone. There’s rare cases of arbitrage opportunities off derivatives. Algorithms don’t always price things in correctly. https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
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反驳观点，指出IV普遍上涨，但承认期权价差扩大可能是混淆因素。
我不同意，我认为隐含波动率(IV)确实出现了重估上涨，因为你可以看到每个虚值(OTM)合约的IV变化。我最初发帖时IV为32%，此后整体IV肯定已升至约38-39%。2027年LEAPS的IV值也从30%出头升至40%多。但正如你所说，期权价差(Option Spreads)大得多，这可能是一个混淆因素。
英文原文
I disagree, I see genuine repricing up of IV, since you can see the IV changes reflected across each OTM contract. I originally posted it at 32% IV and it’s definitely increased since then ~38-39 IV across the board. IV values have increased for 2027 leaps as well from low 30s to 40s. But as you mentioned the option spreads are a lot wider and might be confounding factor
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博主称凭借超强记忆力可高效跟踪多只股票及期权信息。
@ponzisseur 不知为何，我对财务信息有着近乎照相式的记忆。因此，我能够跟踪40多只股票/期权链，并在有新消息出现时将信息串联起来。
英文原文
@ponzisseur I have a weird close to photographic memory for financial information somehow. Hence why I’m able to follow 40+ stocks/option chains and just map information together when new things come out.
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建议避免使用Robinhood交易期权，因其执行质量差且存在利益冲突。
@BitcoinDiddy 没错，使用 Robinhood 交易短期期权纯粹是在浪费钱。做市商(Market Makers) 如 Citadel 实际上是在付钱给 $HOOD，以换取更差的成交质量，并针对信息不对称的散户资金进行反向交易。使用 $IBKR 或其他券商，你能获得更好的执行质量，且订单直接对接交易所。
英文原文
@BitcoinDiddy Yep, using Robinhood for short dated options is just throwing away money. MMs like Citadel literally pay $HOOD to give users worse fill and to trade against uninformed retail flows. Using $IBKR or others, you get better execution, and it goes direct to exchanges.
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软件无护城河，网络效应与监管壁垒才是核心竞争优势。
1. 网络效应(Network Effect)。你可以在一天内写出 Reddit 的代码。但因为大家都同意使用像 Hyperliquid 或 Polymarket 这样的平台，这赋予了它可防御的价值。 2. 同意任何新创业公司的观点。软件没有护城河(Moat)。 3. 主要的护城河是监管/时间。Stripe 甚至花费了 11 亿美元，仅为了通过与 Bridge 的合作获得牌照的快速通道并收购竞争对手。
英文原文
1. Network effect. You can code Reddit in a day. But because everyone uses agrees to use something like Hyperliquid or Polymarket gives it defensible value. 2. Agreed for any new startup. No moat in software. 3. Main moat is regulation/time. Stripe literally spent $1.1B just for a fast path for licenses with Bridge and buy out competition.
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警示散户勿重仓短期期权，亚马逊周权期权因股价连跌归零。
Reddit 上最受关注的故事： 一名 Robinhood 用户用积蓄购买了五位数金额的 $AMZN 周权看涨期权(Weekly Calls)。 条件是？ 股价需收复 205 美元以上，潜在收益可能超 100 万美元。 否则归零。 今天，亚马逊收于 198.8 美元。 亚马逊已连续第 9 个交易日下跌，导致其周权期权组合在本周结束时变得一文不值。 故事的教训：请停止持有短期期权。 那 2.6 万美元本可以随时间复利增长至 50 万美元，但现在它毫无价值。
英文原文
The most watched story on Reddit: A Robinhood user bought 5 figures of $AMZN weekly calls with their savings. The condition? Recover past $205 for a potential $1M+. Or go to $0. Today, Amazon finished at $198.8. Amazon has now dropped for the 9th straight session, causing their portfolio of weekly options to end the week worthless. Moral of the story: Please stop holding short-term options. That $26K could easily compound to $500K with time, but now it’s worth nothing.
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分享研究灵感来源：X平台互动、私信及线下讨论。
@yomattyboi - 其中三分之一来自像 @zephyr_z9 这样的 X 用户，他们引用转发我关于“$AXTI 磷化铟(InP) 兄弟们，你们考虑过 _ 吗？”的内容。然后我会进一步向上游进行研究。 - 另一部分来自评论区或人们提及股票时的私信(DM) - 最后一部分仅仅是线下的行业讨论
英文原文
@yomattyboi - 1/3rd of it is folks on X like @zephyr_z9 quote tweeting me about “ $AXTI InP bros, have you thought about _?” Then I do more research upstream. - other part is comment sections or DMs from people who tag about stocks - last part of it is just industry discussions irl
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建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
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Neocloud板块卖空多为对冲，基本面强劲时无需过度关注。
从 $IREN 到 $WULF 的 Neocloud 板块的卖空兴趣(SI) 主要是可转换票据对冲，而非真正的做空。当然，像 Hedgeye 这样的机构也在增加 $NBIS 的 SI 数据，因此很难得知实际数字。话虽如此，如果基本面强劲，我其实不太在意 SI。
英文原文
Short interest from Neocloud sector from $IREN to $WULF are mostly convertible note hedging, not actual shorts. Of course there’s firms like Hedgeye adding to that number for $NBIS SI so it’s hard to know the actual figure. That being said don’t really care too much about SI if fundamentals are strong.
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小资金应集中投资高弹性标的，大资金则需降低风险。
微妙。通常“集中创造财富，分散保全财富”这句老话是成立的。 我大体同意，除非你分散投资的所有标的都是高贝塔且高度相关的。我不确定 $IBIT 的复苏或 $SNDK 哪个涨得更快，所以我选择多匹马下注，并给它们装上 $RKLB 这样的火箭助推器。 但通常来说，是的，投资组合越小，集中度应该越高。如果你有 $10k，也许只选2-3个你最看好的，比如 $SNDK 或 $POET（但显然风险稍大）。 用 $10k 去稳健复利 $GOOGL 或进行分散投资，不会改变你的生活（你打工赚得更多）。但一般来说，随着投资组合规模的增长，你需要承担的风险就越小。
英文原文
Nuanced. So typically concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it rings true. I generally agree unless all your diversified picks are high beta and correlated. I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them. But usually, yes, the smaller the portfolio is, the more concentration your portfolio should be. If you have $10k, maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET (but obviously a tad more risky). Safe compounding $GOOGL or diversifying with those amounts won't change your life (you would get more working a job). But generally the more your portfolio goes up the less risk you need to take.
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市场恐慌情绪蔓延，建议此时寻找被错杀的入场机会。
在$PYPL今日暴跌20.7%+后，股市已进入恐惧(Fear)区域。 在$COIN暴跌48%且$MSTR在过去3个月暴跌51%后，加密市场(Crypto markets)现已处于极度恐惧(Extreme Fear)状态。 散户似乎正在恐慌。 现金(Cash)是一种仓位，但它本应在一周前就确立。 现在可能是寻找入场点的好时机。尤其是当恐惧已经压倒基本面(Fundamentals)时。
英文原文
Stock markets have entered Fear territory after $PYPL dropped 20.7%+ today. Crypto markets are now in Extreme Fear after $COIN crashed 48% and $MSTR crashed 51% in the last 3 months. It looks like retail is panicking. Cash is a position, but it should have been one a week ago. Now might be a good time to look for entry points. Especially when Fear has overridden fundamentals.
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博主视当前市场恐慌为短期流动性冲击，坚持在极度恐惧时买入。
由于白银的强制去杠杆，市场在一天之内就从贪婪转向极度恐惧和“熊市/加密寒冬”了，哈哈。这是过去几年内的第4次了。 作为一个从2016年起经历过每一个加密周期的老手，我会在恐惧达到顶峰时买入。 我认为这只是一次短期的流动性冲击，我正在逢低买入，而非量化紧缩(QT)。 随后将迎来复苏，届时机构将重新配置净多头头寸，这可能发生在未来一两天或几周内。
英文原文
We went from Greed to Extreme Fear and “bear market/crypto winter” in just one day from the silver forced deleveraging lol. This is the 4th period within the last few years. As someone who’s been through every crypto cycle since 2016, I buy when fear is max. I expect this to be a short term liquidity shock which I’m buying into, not quantitative tightening. Then a recovery one institutions reposition net long which could be in another day or two or weeks.
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回顾历史极度恐惧时买入BTC/ETH的高回报，重申逆向投资策略。
突发新闻——今日，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数(Crypto Fear and Greed Index)触及： 15。极度恐惧(Extreme Fear)。 自2023年以来，这种情况仅出现过3次： ~ 2025年3月11日 ~ 2025年4月7日 ~ 2025年11月22日 如果你在这些天买入 $BTC 和 $ETH 并持有2个月，回报如下： 3/11：+33.7% (BTC)，+39.5% (ETH) 4/7：+33.5%，+43.1% 11/22：+5.9%，+6.2% 3月/4月的下跌是代际级别的买入机会。 11月的下跌复苏较慢，但依然非常有利可图。 无论如何，这是一个古老的故事：恐惧时买入，贪婪时卖出。
英文原文
Just In -- Today, Crypto Fear and Greed Index Hits: 15. Extreme Fear. This has only happened in 3 periods since 2023: ~ 3/11/2025 ~ 4/7/2025 ~ 11/22/2025 If you bought $BTC and $ETH on each of those days and waited 2 months, here were the returns. 3/11: +33.7% (BTC), +39.5% (ETH) 4/7: +33.5%, +43.1% 11/22: +5.9%, +6.2% The March/April dips were generational buying opportunities. The November dip was a slower recovery, but very profitable nevertheless. Regardless, this is a tale as old as time, buy during the fear, sell during the greed.
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解释HFT算法抢跑散户订单，并以此作为做多逻辑。
不，这些是高频交易(HFT)算法在对我发布的帖子做出反应，并抢先执行散户的买入订单流。有一半的时间这是真正的信息发现过程，价格会持续上涨。在这种情况下，这只是正常的信息综合，也是我建立多头头寸的原因。你可以清楚地看到，在我发布股票代码的那一刻，成交量出现了异常。
英文原文
No these are HFT algorithms reacting to my posts and frontrunning retail order buy flows. Half the time it’s genuine information discovery and it keeps going up. In this case this is just normal information synthesis and why I took a long. You can clearly see abnormal volume the moment I posted a ticker.
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警告散户警惕HFT算法抢跑，强调投资需自行研究且无紧迫感。
@Craigstox 是的，这对散户来说是个很好的警告。高频交易(HFT)算法正在抢跑买单然后立即卖出。即使在我发布关于 $ETOR 的内容时，它也随机飙升了3%。 当我发布这类内容时并没有紧迫感（尤其是由于并非适合所有人，请务必自行研究(DYOR)）。
英文原文
@Craigstox Yep that’s a great warning for retail. HFT algorithms are frontrunning buy orders then just selling back. Even when I posted about $ETOR it randomly shot up 3%. There’s no rush when I post this type of stuff (and especially DYOR since it’s not for everyone).
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警告HFT抢跑散户，但坚持发布研究不受算法干扰。
如今，高频交易(HFT)会追踪我的每一条帖子。昨天它对市值57亿美元的$LEU也做了同样的操作。在我将$VPG与$TSLA的财报联系起来后，$VPG昨天上涨了9%。话虽如此，这看起来只是抢跑散户然后反向卖出。所以给其他人提个醒。如果像$OSS那样长期上涨，那只是信息发现。无论如何，我不会让算法阻碍我发布任何研究结果。
英文原文
HFT follow every one of my posts nowadays. It did the same for $LEU yesterday which is a $5.7B company. $VPG went up 9% yesterday after I quoted it with $TSLA earnings. That being said it looks like it’s just frontrunning retail -> selling back. So just a warning to other people. If it goes up longer term like $OSS that’s just information discovery Regardless I’m not going to let algorithms discourage me from posting any findings
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解释为何偏好对低IV大盘股使用杠杆期权。
@ShortsHoward 这次不是。我持有的是深度虚值(OTM)期权。像 $APPL 这样的大盘股隐含波动率(IV)极低，所以我偏好在这些股票上使用杠杆，小盘股则不然。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward Nope on this one I had way OTM options. Big cap like $APPL have extremely low IV so I like leverage on these, not so much for smaller companies.
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对比沃尔玛与美光基本面，建议关注价值而非择时。
我喜欢举这个例子： $WMT，这家袜子零售商的前向市盈率约为40倍，其营收同比增长约5.8%，与通胀水平一致。 $MU，这家领先的存储超级周期公司，前向市盈率约为8.4-8.7倍，营收同比增长133%，每股收益(EPS)同比增长319%。 我认为人们不应该在这里试图择时交易，只需关注基本面即可。
英文原文
I like to give this example: $WMT, the sock reseller has a forward P/E is ~40 and it's growing ~5.8% Y/Y in line with inflation. $MU, the leading memory supercycle company, has a forward P/E is 8.4-8.7 ish, off 133% revenue growth Y/Y, and EPS growth 319% Y/Y. I don't think people should be timing the market here, just look at fundamentals.
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以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
英文原文
$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.
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博主主张公开免费分享研究，旨在减少散户与机构间的信息不对称。
没问题！我只是喜欢公开分享我的投资论点，而不是通过 Substack 等付费订阅来收费（当然，我并不反对那些这样做的人）。 股市是正和博弈，如果信息方向正确，每个人都能受益。 市场（以及很可能包括机构）最终会发现这类瓶颈或供应链公司。我个人喜欢公开免费地分享我找到的任何超额收益(alpha)或研究成果，以减少散户与机构之间的信息不对称。
英文原文
No problem! I just like to share my thesis publicly rather than charging for it behind substacks (no issue for people that do though). Stocks are positive sum where everyone benefits if information is directionally correct. Markets (and likely institutions) would discover these types of bottlenecks or supply chain companies eventually. I just personally like distributing any alpha or research I find publicly and free to reduce the information asymmetry between retail and institutions.