方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 651 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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期权收益受行权价和隐含波动率影响，虚值期权定价偏差更大。
@jayjay12246 @exitvalley 很大程度上取决于行权价(Strike)、隐含波动率(IV)和成交情况。进一步虚值(OTM)的隐含波动率存在更多定价偏差。 相比之下，我更实值(ITM)的行权价仅上涨了55%。
英文原文
@jayjay12246 @exitvalley Largely depends on strike, IV, fill. Further OTM had more mispriced IV. My more ITM strikes are only up 55% in comparison.
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基本面重于图表，股价上涨反映盈利追赶而非泡沫。
没错，完全正确。我在 X 上看到的所有内容都是人们在唱衰，声称韩国（半导体）像 Silver 一样是个泡沫，因为图表一直在上涨。但他们无法解释原因，从不讨论实际的催化剂，也不涉及营业利润、治理结构变化或指标。我看到股价在财报发布时正在追赶盈利。基本面比图表更重要。
英文原文
Yep spot on. All I see on X are people doomposting that Korea is a bubble like Silver because the chart keeps going up. But they can’t explain why, never talk about the actual catalysts, nothing about operational income, governance changes, or metrics. I see the stock price catching up to earnings when they get released. Fundamentals matter more than charts.
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强调基本面分析比技术分析更重要
@Mal_Lin93 好时光！人们有不同意见没关系，我也可能错了。但这篇帖子的主要观点是基本面比技术分析(TA)/图表分析更重要。 https://t.co/QakU2NGCAN
英文原文
@Mal_Lin93 Good times! It's fine if people have other opinions, I could be wrong too. But point of this post was mainly that fundamentals matter more than TA/charting. https://t.co/QakU2NGCAN
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建议在高估值时采用分批建仓策略以平滑成本。
@log289 如果某只股票接近历史最高价(ATH)，最好学会进行成本平均(Cost Average)操作。（例如：若持仓从20%增至30%时股价下跌8%，若再下跌15%则持有剩余仓位）。大致是这个思路。
英文原文
@log289 If something’s near ATHs it’s good to learn to cost average. (Eg. 20% position -> 30% position if it drops 8% -> rest if it drops 15%). Something along those lines
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建议战争期间避免使用杠杆，警惕短期市场下跌风险。
@ogytaku 通常发生战争时，市场短期内都会下跌。 这段时间千万不要使用杠杆，尤其是在下行趋势中。
英文原文
@ogytaku Usually there’s a short term drop when there’s war anyway. Just don’t use leverage during this time, especially on the way down
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警告避免杠杆工具，利用EWY期权IV错配进行套利。
对 $KORU 零敞口。我一直警告人们不要触碰3倍杠杆工具，原因正是如此。 我确实持有 $EWY 的看涨期权，主要是作为隐含波动率(IV)套利交易，因为做市商(MM)将其错误定价为32%的IV。 股价每日上下波动7-13%是严重错误定价的证据，并应受益于维加(Vega)扩张。
英文原文
Zero exposure to $KORU. I've been warning people not to touch 3x leveraged instruments for this exact reason. I do have $EWY long calls mainly as a IV arbitrage play as MM's mispriced this at 32% IV. Stock moving up and down 7-13% a day is evidence they heavily mispriced it, and should benefit from vega expansion.
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强调交易应基于基本面而非情绪。
@LaminarRed 我不基于情绪进行交易，更关注基本面(Fundamentals)。
英文原文
@LaminarRed I don't trade off emotions, care more about fundamentals.
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根据催化剂远近，权衡长期与短期资本利得税策略。
如果催化剂（如光子学 Photonics）尚需时日，我倾向于追求长期资本利得税优惠。例如，我目前持有一笔 $AXTI 头寸，未实现收益约为 450%。但如果出现重大事件（如格陵兰和平协议）可能损害你的国防多头头寸（如持有 $ONDS），那么将约 80% 的收益作为短期资本利得税结算，可能比经历“过山车”回到盈亏平衡点再免税更好。
英文原文
I try and aim for long term capital gains tax if the catalyst is far enough (eg. Photonics). For example I’m sitting on unrealized ~450% return one of my $AXTI positions. But if there’s a major event like Greenland peace deal that would hurt your defense longs like $ONDS if you had it. Then just taking short term capital gains on like a 80% return is probably better than round tripping to breakeven then paying no tax on that
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通过追踪AI资本支出流向及电网需求来构建投资组合。
我很受宠若惊 lol。但即使指数相对持平，我对表现也很满意！ 很大一部分原因在于追踪资金流向。 例如：$GOOGL $1800亿资本支出 -> TPU项目 -> TPU物料清单(BOM) -> 8-12% $LITE -> 来自 $AXTI 的上游材料或来自 $IQE 的外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 或者仅仅是 DRAM/NAND 价格上涨 -> 简单地做多存储。 最近由于 Elon 和 OpenAI 推动电网扩张和更多容量，焦点转向电力/电网，因此做多 $XLU。 我想这只是运气好赶上了动量？
英文原文
I’m flattered lol. But I’m happy with the performance even with a relatively flat index! A large part of it is mapping where all the spend goes. Eg. $GOOGL $180B capex -> TPU program -> BOM of TPU -> 8-12% $LITE -> upstream materials from $AXTI or epiwafers from $IQE. Or just the DRAM/NAND price hikes -> as simple as going long on memory. Recently it’s been power/grid focused from Elon and OpenAI pushing for grid expansion and more capacity, so long $XLU. I guess it’s just getting lucky with momentum?
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建议追踪内存及云厂商预测而非宏观，利用隔夜波动获利。
我只想说，与其关注宏观数据，不如追踪内存价格涨幅和超大规模云服务商的预测可能更好。 宏观数据的影响主要是间接的，体现在能源成本（转嫁成本）以及流动性和波动性上。 话虽如此，隔夜数据往往会大幅夸大市场波动，因此可以利用这一点来获利。
英文原文
I would only say it might be better to track memory hikes and hyperscaler projections over macro. Consequences are mainly indirect in terms of energy costs (pass through cost) and just liquidity/volatility. That being said overnight does exaggerate movements a lot so could always take advantage of that
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认为当前入场太早，暂不持仓，仅监控其他代工厂信号。
我目前没有持仓，因为我认为现在仍然太早。我不想仅仅因为两年后才会发生的事情就持有一个头寸。这与提前布局2028年比特币减半类似，现在开始有点太早了。也许提前6-8个月，比如2027年第二季度初。话虽如此，监控其他晶圆代工厂可能是一个很好的信号，但我个人还没有专门跟踪Soitec。
英文原文
Don’t have positions since I thought it’s still way too early. Don’t want to jut sit on something that’s happening 2Y later. Same with front running 2028 Bitcoin halving, starting now is a tad early. Maybe like 6M-8M in advance, like early q2 2027. That being said monitoring the other foundries are probably a good signal but I personally haven’t been tracking it yet for soitec in specific
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期权交易受价差、入场点及IV影响，且远期合约定价异常。
是的，这很大程度上取决于初始成交情况，因为买卖价差很宽，以及入场点（例如，如果你是在日内+1%或-1%的回调时买入），还有隐含波动率(IV)（做市商(MMs)众所周知会在开盘时抬高某些行权价的价格）。 奇怪的是，我发现2028年1月的期权链相比2027年12月的似乎略微被高估了。
英文原文
Yeah largely depends on initial fill since spreads are wide, entry points (eg. If you bought at an intraday +1% or -1% dip), and IV (MMs are known to elevate some strikes market open) I found the Jan 2028 option chain to be slightly overpriced compared to Dec 2027 one strangely enough
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付费通讯表现普遍跑输X上免费博主，建议寻找免费Alpha。
有一篇关于外部付费订阅通讯的有趣文章。 Reddit 上有人花了 9,600 美元/年订阅了前 23 位作者，并比较了他们的收益： 年初至今：Michael Burry：24 次推荐（例如 $PLTR） - 60 天平均回报 -11.1% 每年花费 415 美元，过去两个月亏损 -11%。 按 60 天平均回报排名的顶级作者： 1. Global Tech Research: +26.7% (50 次推荐) 2. SemiAnalysis: +16.7% (80 次推荐) 3. Fabricated Knowledge: +14.2% (50 次推荐) 4. Altay Capital: +13.7% (15 次推荐) 5. Doomberg: +12.6% (79 次推荐) 6. Paulo Macro: +12.1% (21 次推荐) 7. Macro Charts: +11.1% (72 次推荐) 8. The Setup Factory: +10.8% (285 次推荐) 9. The Overshoot: +9.6% (24 次推荐) 10. TicToc Trading: +8.9% (180 次推荐) 其余 12 位表现最差。垫底的是： Michael J Burry: -11.1% (24 次推荐)，每年 415 美元。 故事的寓意： 像 SemiAnalysis 这样的地方确实有真正的分析。但也许不要花几百美元去订阅那些表现远远落后的服务。 我在 X 上跟踪的大多数作者都大幅跑赢了任何付费订阅卖家。 X 上有很多免费的超额收益(alpha)。
英文原文
There was a very interesting piece on external Subscription newsletters. Someone on Reddit spent $9,600/year on the top 23 authors and compared their returns: Since the start of the year: Michael Burry: 24 calls (eg. $PLTR) - 60d avg return -11.1% for $415/Year, they lost -11% over the past 2 months. Top Authors by 60d Avg Return: 1. Global Tech Research: +26.7% (50 calls) 2. SemiAnalysis: +16.7% (80 calls) 3. Fabricated Knowledge: +14.2% (50 calls) 4. Altay Capital: +13.7% (15 calls) 5. Doomberg: +12.6% (79 calls) 6. Paulo Macro: +12.1% (21 calls) 7. Macro Charts: +11.1% (72 calls) 8. The Setup Factory: +10.8% (285 calls) 9. The Overshoot: +9.6% (24 calls) 10. TicToc Trading: +8.9% (180 calls) The other 12 were performed worst. And at the very bottom: Michael J Burry: -11.1% (24 calls) for $415/year. Moral of the story: There's genuine analysis out there from places like SemiAnalysis. But maybe don't pay hundreds of dollars for others, just to vastly underperform. Most of the authors I've been tracking on X have strongly beat any subscription sellers. A lot of the alpha is free on X.
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反对在高位股大跌后追涨拥挤的防御板块，建议利用散户抛售机会建仓。
不。重点是，在高贝塔(高波动性)股票如 $RDDT 或 $SOFI 下跌 30-40% 后卖出，转而重新配置到已被抢跑且处于历史新高的拥挤交易（如国防/石油）中，并不是个好主意。 就我个人而言，针对我的石油/国防对冲头寸，我正在寻找任何主要的散户抛售潮，以便在这些标的中净重新建立多头头寸。 我只是在想机构可能会做同样的事。
英文原文
No. Point was that it's not a good idea to sell high-beta like $RDDT or $SOFI after dropping 30-40% to reposition into crowded plays like defense/oil that have already been frontrun and are ATHs. For me personally with my oil/defense hedges, I'm looking for any major retail selloff to net reposition long in a lot of these names. I was just thinking institutions might do the same.
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机构已提前交易地缘风险，高位追涨石油国防并卖出超跌资产可能是错误。
以下是我对市场的解读： 美国/以色列的政权更迭+对伊朗的打击已被机构提前交易（front-run）。 在历史高位买入国防/石油并卖出风险资产可能是一个错误，因为这本该在一个月前完成。 数据极其异常： 来自 $CVX、$XOM 和 $XLE 的石油/能源板块年初至今（YTD）上涨 22-26%。 大型国防承包商从 $NOC 到 $LMT 年初至今也增长了 27-36%。 大部分涨幅发生在1月下旬，当时情报报告称针对政权更迭的伊朗打击迫在眉睫。 作为参考： - $LMT 一年回报率为 46.12%。洛克希德仅在最近一到两个月内就获得了大部分收益（32.39%）。 这可能与1万亿美元的国防预算有关，但最大的信号是 $CVX、$XLE 和原油因预期中东局势中断而大幅上涨。 伊朗局势与委内瑞拉完全不同，当时所有人都措手不及。 在委内瑞拉事件中，交易者和机构处于同等地位，像 Gold Reserve 这样的公司当日跳空上涨 100%。 但在伊朗事件中，这可能是历史上最“预告”充分的攻击之一，大多数机构已经重新配置完毕（因此高贝塔资产大幅抛售，石油/国防在过去一个月上涨）。 因此，在现有“高风险”资产已经处于低位时卖出，转而配置到已被机构提前交易、经历异常一个月20%+涨幅后处于历史高位的石油和其他国防承包商，可能是一个错误。 预计大多数散户会这样做，并在流动性不足的时段引发波动（但在这种情况下，反向操作可能会带来更高回报） 我可能错了，但就我个人而言，我已在事件发生前用国防和石油进行了对冲。 我的许多对冲收益异常丰厚，我计划将这些资金轮动到高贝塔资产发生的任何主要抛售中。 我的思路是，机构很可能也会这样做。 TLDR：在高风险资产已经抛售之后，将其轮动到已被机构提前交易且处于历史高位的石油/国防，可能不是最好的主意。
英文原文
Here's my read on the market: The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions. Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago. The data is extremely abnormal: Oil/Energy from $CVX, $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD. Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD. Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change. For reference: - $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone. It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east. The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard. With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day. But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month). So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake. Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns) I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event. Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets. And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the same. TLDR: Rotating your high-beta assets after they've already sold off into oil/defense at ATHs that have already been frontrun by institutions, might not be the best idea.
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机构已提前布局地缘风险，散户恐慌波动将被机构利用。
过去一个月的新闻：“与伊朗的战争迫在眉睫”。 X 上的散户：“没人预料到会发生这种事！现在是恐慌的时候！” 是的，很多因素已经被计入价格，例如能源 ETF $XLE（年初至今上涨 25%）或 $NOC（年初至今上涨 27%），这些表现异常。 预计散户会出现大量波动，但机构/交易员（大多已重新调整仓位）将利用这一点。
英文原文
News for the last month: "War with Iran is Imminent" Retail on X: "Nobody expected this to happen! Everyone time to panic!" So yes a lot of it has been priced in with Energy ETFs $XLE (up 25% YTD) or $NOC (up 27% YTD), which have been abnormal. Expect a lot of retail volatility, but institutions/traders (who have largely already re-positioned) will use this to their advantage.
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只要战争不在本土，历史数据显示其对美股整体长期利好。
你们这些匿名者都意识到战争对股市是利好吧？ 经验法则是： 只要战争不在你的领土上，就是利好。 X 上的散户正在“恐慌性抛售，从 $NVDA 到 $HOOD 全卖，完蛋了”，紧随美国/以色列在伊朗强行政权更迭之后。 但机构大多已经抢跑，正如我们在实际事件发生前看到的大型国防+石油板块上涨（以及任何高贝塔资产的抛售）。 自二战以来，在约 73% 的武装冲突中，美国股市在侵略行为发生一年后都产生了正收益。 而且美国很可能通过此前接管委内瑞拉的石油储备，已经为任何石油波动做好了准备。 朝鲜战争（年化+18.7%）、二战（+16.9%）和海湾战争（+11.7%）期间的年化回报均高于和平时期平均水平。 2022 年 2 月 24 日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，标普 500 指数下跌超过 7%。 不久后市场反弹，标普指数交易水平高于入侵前，即使油价仍维持在每桶 100 美元以上。 伊朗和石油冲击对不同板块有不同影响，但总体而言大盘会上涨（短期下跌）。 总结：这显然是多方面的，不同冲突影响的板块程度不同。 但经验法则是：只要不在自家领土，战争就是利好。
英文原文
You all do realize War is bullish for markets right anon? General rule of thumb is: As long as it’s not in your territory, War is bullish. There’s the retail on X “panic sell everything from $NVDA to $HOOD it’s over” following US/Israel forcing a regime change in Iran. But institutions have largely frontran it as seen with the rise of big defense + oil sectors (and selloff of anything high beta) leading up to the actual event. U.S. stocks generated positive performance one year after an act of aggression in roughly 73% of armed conflicts since WWII. And it’s likely the US already prepared for any Oil volatility by taking over Venezuela earlier for oil reserves. Annualized returns during the Korean War (+18.7%), WWII (+16.9%), and the Gulf War (+11.7%) all beat peacetime averages. After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the S&P 500 index fell more than 7%. Shortly after, markets rebounded and the S&P was trading at a level higher than before the invasion, even as the price of oil remained elevated above $100 a barrel. There’s different implications on different sectors with Iran and Oil impacts, but generally markets as a whole go up (short term down). TLDR: It’s obviously multifaceted and more sectors are impacted than others depending on the conflict. But rule of thumb is War is bullish, as long as long as it’s not on your own territory.
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勿仅凭短期图表判断，应关注基本面，当前仅为健康回调。
看看财报、资本支出(capex)预测和运营数据，我不明白你仅凭 $SPY 的图表和 $NVDA 开盘后几小时的走势是如何得出所有结论的。某处总会有牛市，尤其是在亚洲市场/超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的资本支出流向中。这只是一次健康的回调。如果你感到不安，也许这表明你投资组合中公司的权重配置有误。
英文原文
Look at earnings, capex projections, and operational data, I'm not sure how you got all of that just by looking at the chart of $SPY and few hour movement from $NVDA at open. There's always a bull market somewhere, especially within Asian markets/hyperscaler capex flows. This is just a healthy correction. If you're uncomfortable, maybe it's an indicator weightings of companies in your portfolio is wrong.
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强调股价与基本面脱节，通过运营指标寻找错杀机会。
$CRCL... 三周内已反弹53%。 $54 是最佳的买入时机，而不是财报后涨幅超50%的时候。 有时很难逆着市场情绪操作。 但例如： $CRCL - 尽管股价暴跌，USDC 流通供应量仍是我关注的顶级指标之一。 $AXTI - 7N InP 在 SMM 上非标准化。 生存法则：股价与运营指标之间的脱节。 有时，股价可能反映一种情况，但财报和现实却是另一种。
英文原文
$CRCL... is now back up 53% in 3 weeks. $54 was the best chance to buy, not 50%+ later after earnings. Really hard to go against the sentiment sometimes. But for example, on: $CRCL - USDC circulating supply one of the top indicators I looked at despite the stock price tanking. $AXTI - 7N InP nonstandard on SMM. Alive lives within: the disconnect between stock prices and operational indicators. Sometimes, stock prices might reflect one thing, but the earnings and reality are another.
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等待财报往往滞后，应通过衍生品价格、新闻及同行财报寻找信号。
@YieldKrakers 如果你等到实际财报发布，大多数时候你已经迟了。所有的信号都来自衍生品，比如上海有色网(SMM)上$AXTI 7N铟的非标价格，从新闻中寻找超额收益(alpha)，或者来自其他公司的相关财报。
英文原文
@YieldKrakers If you wait for actual earnings most of the times you’re a little late. All the signals are from derivatives like 7n indium nonstandard prices on SMM for $AXTI, finding alpha in news, or correlated earnings from other companies.
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看好能源电网板块，因缺乏个股知识而选择ETF。
能源/电力/电网板块将成为2026年及以后的重要主题，因为推理/训练需要吉瓦(GW)级数据中心(DC)。$BE 是主要受益者，且可能处于核心地位。我个人最终选择了 $XLU 整个板块，而不是挑选个股（主要是因为我个人对能源类个股缺乏足够的领域知识）。
英文原文
Energy/Power/Grid sector will be a massive theme in 2026 onward as inference/training require GW scale DCs. $BE is a large beneficary and likely at the center of it. I personally ended up going with the $XLU sector as a whole rather than picking individual names (mainly because i don’t personally have enough domain knowledge in energy names)
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做多看涨期权主要获利于价格杠杆而非波动率，高IV标的通常无剧烈日内波动。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @elicapitalgroup 如果你做多看涨期权(Call)，主要是从杠杆带来的价格上涨中获利，而非波动率扩张，因为波动率部分目前已被更多定价（尽管我认为它仍有好处）。 通常隐含波动率(IV)为45%的标的不会每天上下波动5%。 https://t.co/DSJU4JrqzJ
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @elicapitalgroup If you go long calls, it’s manly benefiting from price appreciation on leverage rather than volatility expansion since the volatility part is more priced in now (still think it benefits though) Typically things at 45% IV don’t move up and down 5% a day. https://t.co/DSJU4JrqzJ
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分享主要使用组合保证金及低波动率期权的杠杆管理策略。
@Clyfe1 主要使用组合保证金(Portfolio Margin)持有股票（在任何大幅下跌时）。但通常将杠杆率保持在 1.3-1.4 倍左右。 如果隐含波动率(IV)极低（如在指数上）或者存在套利机会，我会使用期权。
英文原文
@Clyfe1 Mostly portfolio margin with shares (on any major drop). But usually keep leverage around 1.3-1.4x. I do options if the IV is extremely low like on indexes or if there’s an arbitrage play.
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在47%IV买入LEAPS，预期波动率扩张至55%
@Veri_ta5321 @TheValueist 隐含波动率(IV)交易可能已处于尾声，但看涨期权(Call Options)大概率会随指数上涨而走高。事实上，我今天在47%的IV水平上又买入了一些长期期权(LEAPS)，因为我预计其长期将扩张至约55%。
英文原文
@Veri_ta5321 @TheValueist Probably on tail end for the IV trade but calls will likely go up from index going up anyway. Actually just bought more leaps at 47% IV today since I expect it to expand further to ~55% long term.
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解析做市商长期波动率定价错误导致期权价值逆势上涨。
基本上，做市商错误地定价了长期波动率。短期波动率定价相当合理（波动率估算为66%），因此短期期权价格下跌。但他们在长期定价上搞砸了，随着他们提高波动率定价，期权价格随之上涨。这导致尽管标的股票下跌，所有期权价值依然上升（Vega扩张/维加扩张）。不知道这有没有帮上忙。
英文原文
Basically market makers mispriced long term volatility wrong. Short term is priced decently at 66% (estimate of volatility) hence why shorter dated is down. But long term they basically messed up, so as they increase the volatility pricing, option pricing goes up. And this causes all the option values to go up (Vega expansion) despite the underlying stock going down. Idk if that helped at all
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指出市场错误定价波动率，存储超周期将结构性改变波动特征。
这正是我所指出的超额收益(alpha)。你引用的数据是正确的，但我指出的是，市场错误定价了隐含波动率(IV)的历史平均值。他们可能将其定价为39%，而实际上股价波动率为70%。做市商(MMs)可能基于均值回归的假设进行了如此定价。但存储超周期以及头部两家公司的集中度，将从结构上改变未来的波动率。
英文原文
That’s exactly the alpha I’m pointing out. You’re citing correct data, but what I’m pointing out is that the trailing IV averages are being priced wrong. They could be pricing it at 39% when in reality the stock moves at 70%. MMs likely priced it so, assuming a reversion to mean. But the memory supercycle and concentration in two names structurally changes volatility moving forward.
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警示勿全仓押注短期期权，引用 Reddit 司机亏损案例。
本周 Reddit 上最热门的帖子： 一名 DoorDash 司机最近在 Robinhood 上亏光了 14 万+美元的毕生积蓄。 他做每周期权，声称： “我的预测从未出错”。 他用剩下的 160 美元做的最新交易？ $RDDT 160 美元行权价的周权看涨期权。 Reddit 隔夜下跌 1.5%，本周需要超过 10% 的涨幅才能保本。 如果周五前涨幅没有超过 10%，这些期权将归零。 基本上，Reddit 是学习以下内容的最佳场所： -> 在市场中不要做什么。 故事的寓意： 请停止全仓押注短期期权。
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The most popular post on Reddit this week: A DoorDash driver has recently lost their life savings of $140K+ on Robinhood. Doing weekly options, claiming: Their “predictions have never been wrong”. Their latest play with their remaining $160? $RDDT $160 weekly calls. Reddit is down 1.5% overnight and requires over a 10% gain this week, just to break even. If it doesn’t gain 10%+ by Friday, the options go to $0. Basically, Reddit is the greatest place to learn: -> What not to do with markets. Moral of the story: Please stop full sending it into short dated options.
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质疑权威是发现市场异常的关键技能。
@swisssong 我上学时经常因为不听老师的话而被留堂。事实证明，质疑权威正是你在市场中发现异常所需的能力。在这种情况下，隐含波动率(IV)在我看来似乎有些不对劲。
英文原文
@swisssong I used to get detention all the time back in school because I never listened to teachers. Turns out, questioning authority is the same skillset you need with markets to find whether something is off. And in this case, IV seemed off to me.
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通过供应链瓶颈分析挖掘AXTI的超额收益逻辑。
$AXTI 是你如何寻找超额收益(alpha)的完美例子。 在过去的几周里，我展示了： - 7纳米铟在标准金属市场(SMM)达到历史新高(ATH) - 来自 Litecounting 和其他分析师预测的光子供应链飙升 - 与日本和中国的贸易冲突影响住友电工(Sumitomo)及上游竞争对手的原料供应 - 超大规模云服务商资本支出流向专用集成电路(ASIC)和半导体供应链，如 $LITE - 谷歌张量处理单元(TPU)的光子物料清单(BOM)估算 - 美国政府没收资产后优先发展磷化铟(InP)供应链 我发现 $AXTI 在衬底生产以及上游原料方面拥有重大瓶颈控制力。 这就是你如何在一个月或两个月内找到超额收益并实现股票三位数回报的方式。 而不是等待财报并看到更新的 35 美元以上的分析师目标价。 这是我坐下来让市场消化我所做研究的时期。
英文原文
$AXTI is the perfect example of how you find alpha. Over the past few weeks I’ve shown: - 7n indium nonstandard on SMM reaching ATHs - photonic supply chains from litecounting and other analyst projections skyrocketing - trade conflicts with Japan and China affecting Sumitomo and upstream competitor feedstock - hyperscaler capex going into asics and semi supply chains like $LITE - estimated photonic BOM on Google TPUs - Us administration prioritizing InP supply chains after seizing assets And found that $AXTI has a major chokehold on both substrate production as well as upstream feedstock. This is how you find alpha and stock triple digit returns in a month or two. Not after waiting for earnings and seeing updated $35+ analyst price targets. This is the period where I sit back and let markets price in the research I’ve done.
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强调建立独立投资信念，分享交易思考过程供他人学习。
@aditya_martand 你应该建立自己的投资信念(conviction)，而不是跟随他人。我只是分享我对 $XLU 这笔交易背后的思考过程，以防其他人觉得这些想法有趣并能从中学习。
英文原文
@aditya_martand You should build your own conviction, not follow others. I'm just sharing my thought process behind my own trade on $XLU in case others find the ideas interesting + can learn something.