供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1440 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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给出1.6T可插拔与NVLink CPO生态放量时间线。
2027年上半年，是所有 1.6T 可插拔玩家，比如 $JBL。 也许 Innolight/Eoptolink 和其他可插拔玩家也会加入。很快会知道，因为 $SIVE 说他们正在与一些未披露的可插拔玩家合作。 2027年下半年，则是 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态里 Ayar 等玩家的主要 CPO 放量应用。 市场通常会提前约8个月前瞻定价。
英文原文
H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.
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认为AI暂停呼吁会刺激各国加大AI投资。
Anthropic：“敦促全球暂停 AI 发展。” 翻译：“请让我们领先，其他人先别建了！” 无论如何，这类声明会鼓励每个国家开始投资 AI。 其影响从医学、数学到几乎所有领域都非常深远。
英文原文
Anthropic: “Urges Global Pause in AI Development” Translation: “please let us take the lead, stop building!” Regardless, statements like this encourage every Country to start investing in AI. Implications are profound from fields of medicine, math, and basically everything. https://t.co/9tfXq99Pc8
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台积电董事长称CoPoS未来2-3年放量，汽车和机器人也是增长方向。
$TSM 董事长：CoPoS 在未来2-3年的量会非常大，目前已经有试产线。 我原以为市场还会再等几个月，但 Visera（台积电子公司，相关敞口很大）已经有一点重估。 这可以作为明年的一个长线想法记在心里。大家一直说它严重延后，但未来2年放量意味着2028年。 自动机器人/自动驾驶汽车也被视为 $TSM 的增长领域。 汽车过去两年处于严重低迷，所以这个评论有些意外……虽然我现在到处都能看到 Waymo，这对 $XFAB 和其他当前低迷、但对该领域有很大敞口的公司是很好的验证。 所以这是触底信号，甚至进入高增长向量？我需要对这个想法和时间线再做一点研究。 这类小表述很容易吸引我的注意。
英文原文
$TSM chairman: CoPoS very large within 2-3 year volumes already pilot lines now. Thought markets would wait another few months but Visera (TSM subsidiary heavy exposure) already got re-rated a bit. Just something to keep in mind as a long idea next year, everyone kept saying it’s heavily delayed but next 2 years volume implies 2028. Automous robots / autonomous vehicles seen as growth areas for $TSM. Automotive was in a major slump last 2 years so this is a surprise comment… even tho I see Waymo’s everywhere now great validation for $XFAB and others in a slump now with large exposure to that segment. So signals of a bottom, into even a high growth vector? Will need to do a little more research into that thought/timeline. Just little statements like this catch my eye.
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讨论CHIPS法案资助公司被并购较难，参股或是路径。
回复 @MikeBaumgart1：大型公司很难一时兴起就收购像 $SIVE 这种获得 CHIPS Act 资金支持的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种和政府有关联的公司。 很多企业创投部门有时也会错过。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路径。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会入股 $SIVE。
英文原文
@MikeBaumgart1 It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE
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认为Win Semi等代工厂有能力为SIVE扩产。
回复 @chuge857：这取决于 Win Semi 和其他代工厂。Win Semi 刚做了私募来扩大产能，我很有信心他们能为 $SIVE 扩出可观产量。没人知道2027年底或2028年的准确数字，但我相信世界领先代工厂之一。 不过……
英文原文
@chuge857 Up to Win Semi and other foundries. Win Semi just did a private placement to scale up capacity, pretty confident they can scale up significant volume for $SIVE. Nobody knows the exact figures for late 2027 or 2028, but confident in one of the world’s leading foundries. But
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称SIVE不是垄断，而是在ASIC/Merchant CPO架构路线具技术主导。
回复 @SidkMena：这不是垄断。只是它在 ASIC / merchant CPO 路由架构上拥有技术主导地位。 如果其他可插拔玩家也用 $SIVE 创造新的 1.6T 架构，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
@SidkMena It’s not a monopoly. Just technical dominance over ASIC/Merchant CPO route architectures . And wouldn’t be surprised if other pluggable players created novel 1.6T architectures using $SIVE too.
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认为SIVE可能是明年CPO的关键瓶颈。
$SIVE 看起来像是明年 CPO 的关键 chokepoint 和 bottleneck。 我不断看到非技术人士发布的信息漏掉了所有细节。 原因如下： 1. $LITE 财报已经发出信号，CW 激光器存在瓶颈。 激光器晶圆厂产能大量分配给 EML……
英文原文
$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML
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称SIVE是最近最明显、仍在重估的CPO激光瓶颈。
回复 @_king142：$SIVE 可能是最近最明显、仍在重估中的激光器瓶颈，因为它似乎出现在每个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态伙伴以及 merchant/ASIC CPO 供应链里。 也许下一个是 CPO 中的无源光组件供应链。
英文原文
@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.
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认为CPO商业化时间可能在2028下半年，2027上半年再回看。
回复 @eventuallyright：如果你指的是 CPO 使用，现在还太早。2028年下半年可能才是商业化时间线。AMS / 联发科 / 其他公司都在这个领域工作，但仍处于开发阶段。 所以也许在2027年上半年进入下半年时再回头看。 很多研究报告都说准备度很低，但我一直……
英文原文
@eventuallyright Too early of you’re referring to CPO usage. H2 2028 is probably timeline for commercialization. AMS / Mediatek / others are all working in this area but still in development. So maybe revisit H1 entering H2 2027. Lot of research reports state very low readiness, but I keep
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高盛上调四大云厂商资本开支预期，利好上游半导体供应链。
是的……我认为你们所有上游半导体供应链公司都会涨得更高。 高盛现在预计，2025到2030年四大超大云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支合计将达到5.3万亿美元。 这一数字从一季度财报后的4.5万亿美元上调。
英文原文
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. https://t.co/UtkU1IU2V5
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认为市场误读博通CEO评论，云厂商多源化不可避免。
回复 @lousyjets：不是，人们误读了 $AVGO CEO 的评论。 总体需求是贪得无厌的，但超大云厂商不想被卡住，所以 $GOOGL 和其他公司进行多源采购是不可避免的。 博通的利润继续增长，但因为蛋糕持续变大，联发科……
英文原文
@lousyjets No, people are misinterpreting $AVGO CEO comments. Demand is insatiable in general, but hyperscalers don't want to be bottlenecked, so it's inevitable $GOOGL and others multi-source. Broadcom's bottom line keeps increasing, but because the pie keeps increasing, Mediatek,
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讨论高通与字节/亚马逊相关机会及光子学收购。
回复 @madridraptor：如果我没记错，$QCOM 是字节跳动，也可能是 $AMZN，不是 $GOOGL TPU。 不过我真的不喜欢高通对中国的敞口有多大。但他们做了一些非常重要的光子学收购，比如 Alphawave（类似 Marvell 收购 Celestial）……
英文原文
@madridraptor $QCOM was Bytedance and maybe $AMZN if i remember correctly, not $GOOGL TPU. I'm really not a fan of how much exposure Qualcomm has to China though. But they made some really important photonics acqusitions like Alphawave (similar to what marvell did with celestial)... for
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记录博通财报电话会与网络/互连长期机会。
关于 $AVGO 财报电话会的一些随手笔记： - 重申收入目标（2027年1000亿美元以上，我很确定市场原本希望这次财报上调这个目标，所以股价下跌）。 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋关于 $MRVL 围绕网络/连接/互连成为1万亿美元公司的评论吗？ - ……
英文原文
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - https://t.co/JRiucvNnqc
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认为EU政策框架给欧洲光子学玩家长期结构性顺风。
回复 @spring_grandpa：这是欧洲光子学玩家的结构性长期顺风，因为它是一个监管框架。 现在光子学已经成为政府政策新的关键部分。 这不是一天暴涨的催化，可能需要等几个月，让具体公司在其中被点名。
英文原文
@spring_grandpa It's a structural long term tailwind for EU photonic players since its a regulatory framework. Now that photonics is a new critical part of gov policy. Not a massive one-day spike, would need to wait maybe a few months for individual companies to get namedropped for that.
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认为量子仍较远，重点不如光子学/AI。
回复 @baxur100：是的，我看到量子和光子学/AI 一起被点名了。 我个人认为量子行业仍然有点太远，富士康说商业化要到2030年。 所以即使量子玩家获得资金，我个人也不会太关注这个领域，除了也许 Riber 那次下跌……
英文原文
@baxur100 Yeah, I saw Quantum namedropped, alongside photonics/AI. Personally I think quantum sector is still a bit far out, Foxconn said commercialization was 2030. So even if quantum players get funding, I'm personally not too focused on that area aside from maybe Riber that dip in https://t.co/TATnouUHrr
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称欧洲应强化细分垄断和主权供应链韧性。
回复 @BilalElmou89932：欧洲在 AI 竞赛中没有机会与美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的细分垄断/瓶颈，以及主权供应链韧性。 不过我认为他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键。
英文原文
@BilalElmou89932 Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho.
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EU CHIPS Act 2.0将光子学纳入政策，利好欧洲光子学。
欧盟 CHIPS Act 2.0 提案已经发布。 好消息：光子学现在被确认成为欧盟政策新的结构性增量。 这在主题上利好欧洲光子学行业。 从主题角度看： - “欧洲芯片倡议的新组成部分支持……”
英文原文
EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the https://t.co/BAqp80WDAV
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指出CHIPS Act 2加入光子学，XFAB在部分报告中被提及。
回复 @laadred：不是，是因为 CHIPS Act 2 刚刚发布，而且加入了光子学。 “将光子学和光子集成电路纳入强化版欧洲芯片倡议2.0。” $XFAB 在一些报告中被提到。文件太长了，我现在还在逐步看完。
英文原文
@laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now. https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8
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说明讨论的是ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO生态伙伴而非英伟达自身。
回复 @siflower：那是 $NVDA 直接相关。我说的是 ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO 生态伙伴。 在这些伙伴里，$SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
英文原文
@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.
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通过Ayar投资关系推导SIVE在CPO供应链中的确认。
回复 @Uri62223094：这是供应链确认。我知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资者，所以我会假设他们想要某种类似 NVLink 生态的战略合作。 $AMD 也投资了 Ayar，所以 $AMD 选择 $GFS 做 CPO，也让人能通过 Ayar 把1+1和 $SIVE 连起来。 联发科和 $INTC……
英文原文
@Uri62223094 its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC
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认为NVDA CPO生态第一代可能大量以SIVE为主供。
回复 @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong：Celestial 和 Lightmatter 尝试多源采购是预期之内。 但我猜第一代里，$NVDA CPO NVLink 生态很多会由 $SIVE 单一供应/主供应。 英伟达自己也有与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的项目。
英文原文
@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
英文原文
@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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称Ayar加入NVLink Fusion后，SIVE可能成为整个NVLink CPO生态激光源。
猜猜看，朋友？ 在今天 Ayar 加入 Nvidia NVLink Fusion 的新消息之后。 $SIVE 现在很可能成为： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 已列供应链生态伙伴的激光源。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天的 Ayar（三个都列在 NVLink……）
英文原文
GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink https://t.co/DAlXSOpMYH
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暗示某光子学公司成为NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO生态上游激光瓶颈。
哇……今天发布了一个极具转折意义的新消息。 这让某家光子学公司成为： $NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO 生态的事实上的上游激光瓶颈。 它们的激光器现在进入了 Nvidia 的光基础设施供应链。 有人能猜到名字吗？
英文原文
Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name?
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称当天SIVE有比EU CHIPS Act更重大的新闻。
回复 @ConfusedNDazzed：今天 $SIVE 实际上有比 EU CHIPS Act 政策框架公告更大的新闻。
英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed There's actually even bigger news for $SIVE today than the EU CHIPS Act policy framework announcements.
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
英文原文
@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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欧洲技术主权包和CHIPS Act 2.0突出光子学，利好XFAB/SIVE。
欧洲将在今天6月3日发布技术主权一揽子计划。 其中包括 CHIPS Act 2.0，预计会优先考虑光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 都在指导欧盟立法的产业政策蓝图中被重点提及。 这提出了主权支持……
英文原文
Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing https://t.co/WWBlo5o1tL
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预计物理AI未来3-4年开始扩张，10年内替代大量工作。
回复 @joestar1402：嗯，物理 AI 建设可能在未来3-4年开始扩张？然后再给它10年，实现大部分替代。 自动驾驶汽车会替代很多出租车/Uber 司机。 人形机器人/机器人会替代很多工厂或体力工作。 等等……专业岗位也会……
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@joestar1402 Eh next 3-4 years for physical AI buildout to start scaling? Then give it 10 years for majority displacement. Self driving cars are going to displace a lot of taxi/uber drivers. Humanoids/robotics replacing a lot of factory or manual work. And so on… speciality jobs will
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认为Win Semi可能成为激光器重要瓶颈。
回复 @finessetrades：Win Semi 最终很可能成为激光器的主要瓶颈。 它们只是还没有出现在很多分析师报告中，也还不被光供应链充分了解。 但我对它明年很有信心。
英文原文
@finessetrades Win Semi is probably going to end up a major bottleneck for lasers. They’re just not listed in many analyst reports or known about yet in optical supply chains. But I have high confidence in it for next year.
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称SIVE成为NVDA NVLink Fusion生态激光供应商是重大新闻。
回复 @beauty_oe：我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA NVLink Fusion 生态的激光供应商，这是非常大的新闻。 Marvell 几个月前加入后，看看它市值发生了什么。 我今天晚些时候会讲。
英文原文
@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!