全部推文
共 6765 条 · 第 127 / 226 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
澄清公开分享研究，订阅费仅为防算法抢跑。
不，我在 X 上公开发布所有我的论点帖子，其他地方没有。我也不相信把任何内容藏在付费墙后面！ X 上的 1 美元订阅只是为了给一天中随性的“淋浴思考”提供额外空间，因为我不想用那些内容淹没我的主时间线。绝大多数人可能并不在意那些内容。 不幸的是，这是我在 X 上必须设置的最低金额，以防止高频交易(HFT)算法抢先交易我的所有观点，否则我会将其设为免费。
英文原文
No, I post all my thesis posts publicly on X and nowhere else. I also don’t believe in hiding anything behind a paywall! The $1 sub on X is just extra space for random shower thoughts throughout the day since I don’t want to flood my main timeline with that. Vast majority of people probably don’t care for that. Unfortunately that’s the minimum amount I have to set for X + prevent hft algorithms from frontrunning everything otherwise I’d make it free.
-
分析IQE债务及出售台湾业务后的估值潜力，提示高风险不推荐。
粗略估计，其毛债务约为4100万欧元，加上约10-14%的股份稀释以及一轮（2400万）现金融资。 所以是的，$IQE 确实有债务。我的主要观点是，如果他们出售台湾业务以清偿债务，其资产负债表将变得非常干净，且其在光子学(Photonics)供应链中的拖拉机(Tractors，指核心设备/产能)及定位远超当前估值。 这是我个人进行这笔交易的原因，但我不会推荐它，因为这对大多数人来说通常风险较高。
英文原文
It’s ~41m euro gross debt, off the top of my head 10-14% share dilution + round (24m) cash. So yes $IQE debt. The main point was that if they sell their Taiwan business to clear that debt, their balance sheet looks clean and all the tractors + positioning in photonics supply chains far exceeds valuation. This was the personal reason why I took the trade but i wouldn’t recommend it since it’s generally risky for a lot of people.
-
博主更正 $RPI 涨幅数据，承认其表现严重滞后。
@leglock140448 我的错，$RPI 自上月发帖以来仅上涨 18.2%，并未翻倍。它是表现严重滞后的股票之一。https://t.co/Ww00UZhb3U
英文原文
@leglock140448 My bad $RPI is only up 18.2% since posting last month instead of doubling. One of the heavy underperformers. https://t.co/Ww00UZhb3U
-
博主反驳网友，指出相关公司市值巨大，个人无法使其股价翻倍。
@fullthr0tll3 我的意思是 $LITE 是一家市值 550 亿美元的公司？Macronix/Nittobo 是市值 60 多亿美元的公司。 $AAOI 是一家市值 70 亿美元的公司，股价从我发帖时的约 28 美元涨到了 100 美元。$AXTI 现在是一家市值约 24 亿美元的公司，从我发帖时的约 5 亿美元涨上来的。 我不认为 X 上的一个随机用户能对这些公司产生足够大的影响，让它们全部翻倍。
英文原文
@fullthr0tll3 I mean $LITE is a $55B company? Macronix/Nittobo are $6B+ company. $AAOI is a $7B company/$100-share from ~$28 when I posted. $AXTI is now a ~$2.4B company from ~$500m when I posted. I don’t think a random person on X can affect these companies enough to make them all double.
-
博主感叹近期多只AI光模块股票短期暴涨100%+的现象。
嗯……这大概是继 $AXTI 以来最快的一次 100%+ 反弹吧？ 感觉我周围的一切，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE，都在短时间内不断上涨 100%+。 有人也遭受这种“痛苦”吗？
英文原文
Well… this was probably the fastest 100%+ rally since $AXTI? Feels like everything around me keeps going up 100%+ in short periods of time from $AAOI to $LITE. Anyone suffering from this problem? https://t.co/ao8g3cey0t
-
认为只要光子学存在，AXTI就是赢家。
@kingcoinmatt 只要光子学(Photonics)还存在，$AXTI 就永远是赢家。
英文原文
@kingcoinmatt $AXTI is always the winner as long as photonics is a thing.
-
CPO技术终将落地，但谷歌暂不采用。
@Maverick5m8 不，共封装光学(CPO)终将实现。只是 $GOOGL（许多TPU资本支出交易都依赖它）刚刚决定说不。
英文原文
@Maverick5m8 No, CPO is going to happen. Just $GOOGL (which a lot of the TPU capex trade relies on) just decided to say nah
-
看好AAOI长期前景，认为IQE风险高但已翻倍。
@Mellokhai 只要管理层高管能达成其业绩指引，我对 $AAOI 的长期前景非常有信心。 $IQE 更像是一个高风险的“彩票型”机会，存在债务/重组等大量风险，结果难料。不过很高兴自从我提及它以来，股价已经翻倍了。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Very confident about $AAOI long term as long as management executives and hits their projections. $IQE more of a moonshot with a ton of risks with debt/restructuring, who knows. Glad it's doubled since I mentioned it though.
-
CPO技术前景广阔，NVDA积极布局，AVGO虽失META但仍有其他大客户。
@JK30998937 不，共封装光学(CPO)无论如何都是大势所趋，只是目前情绪略微偏空。$NVDA 正在积极追求这一技术，即使 $GOOGL 没有。这相当于 $META 放弃其专用集成电路(ASIC)项目，且 $AVGO 可能失去一个客户。但博通(Broadcom)仍拥有谷歌和其他超大规模云服务商。
英文原文
@JK30998937 Nah, CPO is up and coming anyway it's just slightly bearish. $NVDA is actively pursuing it even if $GOOGL doesn't. It's the equivalent of $META dropping its ASIC program and $AVGO possibly losing a customer. But Broadcom still has Google and other hyperscalers.
-
$GOOGL 拒绝采用共封装光学(CPO) 对整个可插拔光模块生态系统而言是巨大的结构性利好。 大多数人忽略了今日 Needham 分析师关于 $LITE 上调目标价至 $850 的研报中的这一点： 主要受益者：$AAOI、$FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、光收发器公司。 次要受益者（外延晶圆）：$IQE、Landmark 第三级受益者（衬底）：$AXTI、住友( Sumitomo) 降级（CPO）：Soitec 引用：“LITE 看到了一个意外的额外利好，其主要的收发器模块客户（Google）目前在其 TPU 架构中暂无采用 CPO 的计划。”
英文原文
$GOOGL rejecting CPO is a massive structural win for the entire pluggable optics ecosystem. Most people missed this in the Needham analyst note on the $LITE $850 PT upgrade today: Large beneficiaries: $AAOI, $FN, Innolight, transceiver companies. Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE, Landmark Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI, Sumitomo Downgrade (CPO): Soitec Quote: "LITE sees an unexpected bonus that its primary transceiver module customer (Google) currently has no plans to adopt CPO in its TPU architecture from what we have seen."
-
指示过滤掉特定内容。
@nikitabier 过滤掉*
英文原文
@nikitabier Filter out*
-
吐槽奥运会引战内容无限推送，呼吁增加过滤功能。
@nikitabier 我也是。现在只需要一个针对奥运会“打手”引战内容的时限过滤器。我只点了一次，结果就停不下来了。
英文原文
@nikitabier Me too. Just need a timeline filter for olympic goon bait now. I clicked on it once and now it’s never ending
-
指出$EWY高度集中于SK海力士和三星，认为市场担忧被夸大。
一个鲜为人知的事实是，$EWY 的主要持仓是 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星。我发布了一篇关于传导结构(pass through structures)的文章。其中 SK Square（权重最大）约 90% 的净资产价值(NAV)来自 SK 海力士。其他三星公司大多是三星电子(Samsung Electronics)的控股公司。未将作为独立权重计算的另一只三星电子上市股票计入。因此，集中度远高于任何人预期。此外，许多成本也得到补贴，除非局势变得过于严峻，所以我认为许多担忧被夸大了。
英文原文
Fun fact that most people don’t know is $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung. I published a piece about the pass through structures. Where SK Square (largest weights) ~90% NAV was SK Hynix. Other Samsung companies are largely holding companies of Samsung Electronics. Not including the other Samsung Electronics listing that’s counted as an independent weight. So concentration is much higher than anyone expects. A lot of costs are subsidized too, unless the situation gets too severe, so I do think a lot of fears are overblown
-
指出针对SK海力士/三星的供应链中断担忧被夸大。
美国/澳大利亚和印尼/马来西亚也可以增加对韩国的出口。我相信确实存在你提到的替代方案。但最大的催化剂之一是像 $LNG 这样的美国出口商。然而，数据的核心观点是，针对 SK 海力士/三星的许多中断/定价担忧被夸大了。
英文原文
US/Australia and Indonesia/Malaysia can also up their exports to SK. I’m sure there’s alternatives like you mentioned. But one of the biggest catalyst was for US exporters like $LNG. However point of the data was that lot of disruption/pricing fears are overblown to SK Hynix/Samsung
-
韩国LNG进口多元化且多为长协，能源成本可转嫁，基本面未受地缘政治实质影响。
如果霍尔木兹海峡(Hormuz)关闭，韩国80%的液化天然气(LNG)进口似乎不受影响。$EWY 中的SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星自2022年以来已实现高度多元化。人们引用数据称，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的LNG中约59%流向四个亚洲国家：韩国、日本、中国和印度。这看起来是个吓人的数字，但这只是他们总进口量的一小部分。大约五分之四的进口已通过非霍尔木兹路线到达：澳大利亚(24.6%)、美国(12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚(~20%)和俄罗斯/萨哈林(~4.6%)。此外，2024年约82%的进口为长期合同，而非现货。因此，任何因价格飙升导致的成本上涨将得到很大程度的缓冲。即使成本上升，也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。看来韩国从2022年的教训中吸取了经验，实现了来源多元化并增加了长期定价合同。
英文原文
If the Hormuz were closed, it looks like 80% of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. And looks like $EWY SK Hynix and Samsung are largely diversified since 2022. People are quoting majority of all LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (~59%) goes to just four Asian countries: South Korea, Japan, China, and India. Looks like a scary number, but that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Roughly four-fifths of imports already arrive via Hormuz-free routes: Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot. So any hiked rates for new price hikes would be largely insulated. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. Looks like South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources + added long term pricing contracts.
-
提醒用户警惕来自不明来源的诈骗信息。
@SoroushIraji 那些是骗局，请注意查看消息来源。
英文原文
@SoroushIraji Those are scams, be careful to see where the messages are coming from
-
定投SK海力士并轮动至存储板块，视当前波动为中期买入机会。
我个人正在对SK海力士(SK Hynix)进行定投，并将其他持仓轮动回存储芯片领域。美国、澳大利亚和马来西亚将填补液化天然气(LNG)的缺口，因为存储芯片对美国的人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，尤其是为了避免在竞争中落后于中国。我将此视为一个买入机会，就像去年大家恐慌性抛售$NVDA时那样。不知道这种波动会持续多少天，也很难精准抄底，但中期来看我认为它会恢复。
英文原文
I’m personally cost averaging into SK Hynix and rotating my other names back into memory. US/Australia/Malaysia will fill the LNG gap as memory is critical to America’s AI buildout. Especially so it doesn’t lose to China. I just see this as a buying opportunity like when everyone panic sold $NVDA the other year. Don’t know how many days this volatility lasts + hard to time the bottom, but mid term I see it recovering.
-
基本面重于图表，股价上涨反映盈利追赶而非泡沫。
没错，完全正确。我在 X 上看到的所有内容都是人们在唱衰，声称韩国（半导体）像 Silver 一样是个泡沫，因为图表一直在上涨。但他们无法解释原因，从不讨论实际的催化剂，也不涉及营业利润、治理结构变化或指标。我看到股价在财报发布时正在追赶盈利。基本面比图表更重要。
英文原文
Yep spot on. All I see on X are people doomposting that Korea is a bubble like Silver because the chart keeps going up. But they can’t explain why, never talk about the actual catalysts, nothing about operational income, governance changes, or metrics. I see the stock price catching up to earnings when they get released. Fundamentals matter more than charts.
-
反驳KOSPI恐慌，指出SK海力士基本面强劲，当前为情绪性去杠杆。
感觉大家都在唱衰韩国综合指数(KOSPI)，说： > “看图表，它不可能一直这样涨！” > 存储芯片是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 已收到3年预购订单） > $EWY 基本上就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，并不代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾加权指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨一样。 > 存储需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争而消失，但成本确实会变高。 > 原油/LNG带来的能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，而不是被运营支出(opex)吸收。 这看起来更像是恐慌性抛售和去杠杆（3倍和10倍ETF今天可能已被清零），而非基本面恶化（虽有轻微利空，但不足以导致-30%跌幅）。 SK海力士期货现在交易在3000亿-4000亿美元市值区间。 如果微软(MS)和更新的分析师预测稍微准确一点，SK海力士的营业利润例如约为3000亿美元。 如果存储价格下跌，到2028年他们将拥有过多的现金作为缓冲。（甚至还没考虑需求变得结构性强劲）。 这看起来像是另一次DeepSeek-英伟达式的恐慌性抛售，尤其是最近nand/dram价格再次上涨。更多是关于择时抄底的问题。 在这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的头条新闻抛售更重要。
英文原文
Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying: > “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!” > Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders ) > $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy > Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up. > Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive. > Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex. It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%). SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B. They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural). Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom. It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.
-
询问是否应全仓买入LASR。
@nikitabier 你这是在暗示我全仓买入 $LASR 吗？
英文原文
@nikitabier Is this you telling me to full port it into $LASR?
-
强调基本面分析比技术分析更重要
@Mal_Lin93 好时光！人们有不同意见没关系，我也可能错了。但这篇帖子的主要观点是基本面比技术分析(TA)/图表分析更重要。 https://t.co/QakU2NGCAN
英文原文
@Mal_Lin93 Good times! It's fine if people have other opinions, I could be wrong too. But point of this post was mainly that fundamentals matter more than TA/charting. https://t.co/QakU2NGCAN
-
博主对某推文内容表示极度惊讶和好笑
@blondesnmoney 看到这条后我在公共场合把饮料喷出来了。没想到时间线上会出现这种内容 lol
英文原文
@blondesnmoney I spit out my drink in public after seeing this. Wasn’t expecting this on timeline lol
-
引用评论并调侃CRCL股价从未跌破50美元。
@swisssong 那天的评论是这样的（抱歉单独拎出这个人）。 旁白：$CRCL 从未跌破 $50 https://t.co/mLXzznBuDK
英文原文
@swisssong Comment of that day was this (sorry for singling this person out). Narrator: $CRCL never dipped below $50 https://t.co/mLXzznBuDK
-
CRCL案例证明基本面重于图表，关注USDC供应与政策。
$CRCL 是一个很好的教训，说明了基本面比股价/图表更重要。需要关注的是 USDC 供应量、利率以及《Clarity Act》。而不是情绪是否糟糕，或者 XYZ 技术分析(TA)是否说它会涨到 30 美元。X 上的所有人都在 200 美元时争相买入，但在 50 美元时却退缩了。
英文原文
$CRCL is a good lesson why fundamentals matter more than stock price/charts. Things to watch are USDC supply, interest rates, and Clarity Act. Not whether or not sentiment is bad or if the XYZ TA says it’s going to $30. Everyone on X was rushing to buy this at $200 but chickened out at $50.
-
建议在高估值时采用分批建仓策略以平滑成本。
@log289 如果某只股票接近历史最高价(ATH)，最好学会进行成本平均(Cost Average)操作。（例如：若持仓从20%增至30%时股价下跌8%，若再下跌15%则持有剩余仓位）。大致是这个思路。
英文原文
@log289 If something’s near ATHs it’s good to learn to cost average. (Eg. 20% position -> 30% position if it drops 8% -> rest if it drops 15%). Something along those lines
-
建议持有$AEHR股票加融资，避免高IV的LEAPS期权。
@demarscrypto 如果你想要杠杆，就坚持持有股票并配合少量融资，$AEHR 的 LEAPS（长期期权）隐含波动率(IV)实在太高了。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Just stick with shares and slight margin if you want leverage, IV for $AEHR leaps are way too high.
-
$AEHR获连续订单，有望迎来从投机小盘股到量产重估的拐点。
感觉 $AEHR（12亿美元市值）正接近从投机性小盘股向大规模订单增长的拐点。就在上周，他们又收到了一笔1400万美元的订单。今天，他们的硅光子学(silicon photonics)客户又追加了一笔后续订单。一旦他们的客户/超大规模数据中心(hyperscalers)转向“大规模量产”和“批量生产”，很可能会触发 $AEHR 的巨大重估周期。鉴于今年每周都有订单新闻，这种情况发生的可能性似乎更大。
英文原文
Feels like $AEHR ($1.2B) is close to hitting its inflection point from a speculative small cap to mass order ramp. Just last week they received another $14M order. And today another follow-up order from their silicon photonics customer. Once their customers/hyperscalers transition to “high-volume manufacturing" and "volume production”, would likely trigger a massive rerating cycle for $AEHR. Feels more likely for it to happen than not given the weekly news of orders this year.
-
建议战争期间避免使用杠杆，警惕短期市场下跌风险。
@ogytaku 通常发生战争时，市场短期内都会下跌。 这段时间千万不要使用杠杆，尤其是在下行趋势中。
英文原文
@ogytaku Usually there’s a short term drop when there’s war anyway. Just don’t use leverage during this time, especially on the way down
-
澄清两只股票分别在美国OTC和巴黎交易所上市
@the_real_VdB 是的，一个是美国场外交易市场(OTC)，另一个在巴黎证券交易所上市
英文原文
@the_real_VdB Yes, one is US OTC the other is on the Paris stock exchange
-
看好某CPO垄断股，虽短期波动大但具西方供应链优势。
@Jap97Taki 是的.. 我喜欢我的股票每天上下波动 20% 带来的肾上腺素飙升感。 这只股票很可能将经历一段超级无聊的等待期，直到共封装光学(CPO) 临近时进行重估。 但它们是真正的单一垄断者（而非像 $AXTI / $SUM 那样的双寡头）+ 西方供应链。
英文原文
@Jap97Taki Yeah.. I like the adrenaline rush of my stocks going up and down 20% a day. This one is likely going to be a super boring wait for re-rating as CPO approaches. But they're a genuine singular monopoly (rather than duopoly like AXT/Sumitomo) + western supply chain too.