2026-03-04 · 供应链分析

反驳KOSPI恐慌，指出SK海力士基本面强劲，当前为情绪性去杠杆。

中文翻译

感觉大家都在唱衰韩国综合指数(KOSPI)，说： > “看图表，它不可能一直这样涨！” > 存储芯片是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 已收到3年预购订单） > $EWY 基本上就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，并不代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾加权指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨一样。 > 存储需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争而消失，但成本确实会变高。 > 原油/LNG带来的能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，而不是被运营支出(opex)吸收。这看起来更像是恐慌性抛售和去杠杆（3倍和10倍ETF今天可能已被清零），而非基本面恶化（虽有轻微利空，但不足以导致-30%跌幅）。 SK海力士期货现在交易在3000亿-4000亿美元市值区间。如果微软(MS)和更新的分析师预测稍微准确一点，SK海力士的营业利润例如约为3000亿美元。如果存储价格下跌，到2028年他们将拥有过多的现金作为缓冲。（甚至还没考虑需求变得结构性强劲）。这看起来像是另一次DeepSeek-英伟达式的恐慌性抛售，尤其是最近nand/dram价格再次上涨。更多是关于择时抄底的问题。在这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的头条新闻抛售更重要。

英文原文

Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying: > “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!” > Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders ) > $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy > Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up. > Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive. > Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex. It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%). SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B. They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural). Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom. It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.

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