业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 481 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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展示做空原油逻辑下$JETS期权3小时内的盈利表现。
才过了3个小时，$JETS 的交易就涨了不少，哈哈。 隐含波动率(IV)为25%的情况下，实现了5.35%的波段收益。 永远要相信你的吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)、X散户以及Wallstreetbet指标。
英文原文
It’s only been 3 hours and the $JETS trade is up a lot LOL. 5.35% swing off 25% IV. Always trust in your Jim Cramer, X retail, and Wallstreetbet indicators. https://t.co/38poYZZRA0
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回顾 $CRCL 一个月翻倍，强调应关注基本面而非图表。
$CRCL 现在到了 109 美元。 Circle 自从我在 54 美元发帖以来，涨幅已超过 100% 至 109 美元…… 那是一个月前的事了。 我真的很喜欢回头看那些看跌的评论，声称它会“下跌 50%”或“图表看起来很丑”，所以最终会跌至 20 美元。 当 $CRCL 在 50 美元时，X 上的所有人都在看跌，但现在它回到 100 美元，人们又转为看多了。 市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者。 但最大的教训是：关注基本面，而不是图表。
英文原文
$CRCL is now at $109. Circle has increased more than 100% to $109... Since my post at $54. This was 1 month ago. I really love going back and seeing all the bearish comments claiming it would "Go down"50%" or "chart looks ugly" so it ends up at $20. Everyone on X was bearish on $CRCL at $50, but now that it's back at $100, people are bullish again. The market is the final arbiter of right and wrong. But the biggest lesson: Look at underlying fundamentals, not the chart.
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复盘今日持仓表现，VRT符合预期，LITE与COHR意外。
@InFoTheLongTerm 鉴于预测市场赔率，我原本预期今天会是 $VRT。$LITE 和 $COHR 的表现则令人意外。
英文原文
@InFoTheLongTerm I expected $VRT today given prediction market odds. $LITE and $COHR together came in as a surprise.
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期权因波动率扩张接近翻倍，预期IV与股价将同步上涨
@exitvalley 是的！我认为在我买入一些行权价(strikes)后，标的资产(underlying)实际上跌得更多，但看涨期权(calls)仅因波动率扩张就已接近翻倍。 而且我预计本周事件发生后，隐含波动率(IV)将进一步上升（同时标的股票也会上涨） https://t.co/TwCJrLo0Z3
英文原文
@exitvalley Yeah! I think the underlying actually dropped more after I bought some strikes but calls are close to double anyway off volatility expansion alone. And I expect IV to increase further after this week’s events (alongside underlying stock to go up) https://t.co/TwCJrLo0Z3
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博主回顾并炫耀其 $EWY 隐含波动率套利交易的成功表现。
天哪……这笔 $EWY 隐含波动率(IV)交易有多神？ 自3周前发帖以来，韩国指数波动率已从32%飙升至51%。 如果 $AAOI 翻倍我也不会太惊讶，但这笔对韩国波动率的押注简直传奇。 https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
英文原文
Holy… How goated was this $EWY IV trade? The South Korean Index volatility went from 32% -> 51% since posting 3 weeks ago. I’m not as impressed if $AAOI doubles but this call on South Korea’s volatility was legendary. https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
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博主更正 $RPI 涨幅数据，承认其表现严重滞后。
@leglock140448 我的错，$RPI 自上月发帖以来仅上涨 18.2%，并未翻倍。它是表现严重滞后的股票之一。https://t.co/Ww00UZhb3U
英文原文
@leglock140448 My bad $RPI is only up 18.2% since posting last month instead of doubling. One of the heavy underperformers. https://t.co/Ww00UZhb3U
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博主自嘲父母投资眼光更好，$PL涨幅远超其持有的$AXTI。
我爸妈其实是比我更好的投资者，哈哈。也许部分原因是基因？ 我爸一直告诉我他当时在$1.7时有多喜欢$PL。我并不太相信地理空间智能(geospatial intelligence)。但这只股票最终上涨了约16倍。 这会跑赢我的$AXTI收益。
英文原文
My parents are actually better investors than I am lol. Maybe part of it is genetics? My dad kept telling me how much he liked $PL back at $1.7. I didn’t really believe in geospatial intelligence. But the stock ended up going up like 16 times. Would have beaten my $AXTI returns.
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博主晒出501%收益，称持有了光子、存储及亚洲瓶颈环节的所有领涨股。
我碰巧持有了今年所有表现最好的个股： 从光子学领域的 $AXTI 和 $AAOI， 到存储领域的 $SNDK 和 SK 海力士， 再到亚洲瓶颈环节的 Nittobo、 Macronix 和 Unimicron。 所有持仓在两个月内均实现三位数回报。 年初至今收益率：501.38% 只是运气好吧？
英文原文
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?
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分享AXTI暴涨4倍收益，并乐享挖掘AI行业瓶颈。
@Veri_ta5321 随时欢迎！自从我发帖时的日内低点以来，$AXTI 已上涨近4倍！短短两个半月，这趟旅程真是疯狂。 我很享受像淘金一样挖掘整个AI行业的小型瓶颈环节。
英文原文
@Veri_ta5321 Anytime! $AXTI has increased close to 4x since intraday low when I posted! In just two and a half months, it’s been a crazy ride. Having a fun time gold mining for small bottlenecks of the entire AI industry.
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博主晒出AXTI持仓455%收益，并期待IQE表现。
@ryansfinance 谢谢！你肯定错过了 $AXTI，我的持仓收益已达 455%。 是的，希望 $IQE 接下来也能有积极表现！https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
英文原文
@ryansfinance Thanks! You missed out on $AXTI for sure, my positions are up like 455%. Yep hope to see something positive with $IQE next! https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
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博主回顾去年研究，庆幸精准预判英伟达投资及光模块股表现。
@invspoter 如果我能帮上忙，我很高兴！ 不过很高兴我去年在研究论文中精准预判了这一点。$NVDA 最终投资了 $LITE 和 $COHR。然后 $AAOI 今年也大幅上涨。https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
英文原文
@invspoter I'm happy if I was able to help! Glad I got this part spot on from my thesis last year though. $NVDA ended up investing in both of $LITE and $COHR. Then $AAOI ended up popping off this year. https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
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博主炫耀选股大幅跑赢大盘，部分持仓翻倍后回调。
@Investmnt_Eagle 哈哈，是的，我选的所有股票比如 $AAOI 和 $IQE 最近每天涨幅都在 20-40% 左右。$AXTI 和 $LITE 在本月翻倍后正在小憩调整。说实话，市场其他部分并没有玩得这么开心。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle LOL yeah all my picks like $AAOI and $IQE are up like 20-40% a day recently. $AXTI, $LITE have been taking a tiny rest after doubling this month. Rest of the market not having as much of a fun time tbh.
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博主分享期权大涨144%及XLU周涨幅示例
@Ngen704 我那些极度虚值(OTM)的看涨期权已经上涨了144%+。我刚才只是以接近平值(ITM)的行权价为例，来说明 $XLU 本周3%的涨幅 https://t.co/PhgmsJDz39
英文原文
@Ngen704 My very OTM calls are up 144%+ I was just sharing closer to ITM strike as an example of the 3% increase this week for $XLU https://t.co/PhgmsJDz39
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澄清讨论标的为AAOI，并提及此前成功预判AXTI涨幅。
@FractalVeritas 这里讨论的是 $AAOI，不是 $AXTI。不过我确实在 $AXTI 过去两个月上涨3倍之前就指出过它。
英文原文
@FractalVeritas Talking about $AAOI in this, not $AXTI. But I did point out $AXTI before it went up 3x in the last two months.
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博主指出此前看多的XLU期权一周大涨，波动罕见。
@annapych1 是的，自从我指出这一点以来，一些 $XLU 的期权合约在一周内上涨了 80-150%。 一周内出现 3.3% 的波动极其罕见 https://t.co/wmGI7Sysv1
英文原文
@annapych1 Yeah some $XLU strikes are up 80-150% in a week since I called it out. Extremely rare to have a 3.3% movement in a week https://t.co/wmGI7Sysv1
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博主庆祝两个月前的光子学研究验证，相关个股获三位数回报。
我只是在庆祝我两个月前做的一些深度研究(DD)！ 看到 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $LITE 的股价都实现了三位数的回报，这种验证我最初关于光子学(photonics)论点的过程非常有趣。 显然不是在告诉其他人要建仓，只是分享一些更新。
英文原文
I’m just celebrating some of the DD I did two months ago! Seeing it play out with stock prices from $AXTI, $AAOI, and $LITE all hitting triple digit returns is very fun to see (and helps validate my original thesis on photonics). Obviously not telling others to take positions, just sharing some updates.
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建议高位适度止盈但不清仓，长期持有光子学资产将大幅跑赢市场。
是的，在过去两个月疯狂上涨后，适当减仓并锁定部分利润是合理的！不过不要完全清仓所有头寸。 对我来说，我对自己的投资组合进行更多的主动管理。 我相信，鉴于光子学(Photonics)产能的爬坡，如果你只是持有这些资产三年，其表现将大幅跑赢大多数投资组合。
英文原文
Yeah it makes sense to trim a bit and take some profits after the insane rally last two months! Not completely sell all positions though. For me I do more of active management for my own portfolio. I’m sure if you just hold things for the next three years given photonic ramp, it would strongly outperform majority of portfolios.
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分享AXTI持仓两月涨283%，并提及NVDA财报后的高飞股抛售。
@AvivaMarket 也许是因为即便算上今天的跌幅，本月涨幅也已达 102%？ 我持有的 $AXTI 仓位在过去两个月仍上涨了 283%。 除了健康的回调外，在 $NVDA 财报发布后，许多高飞股出现了抛售。 https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
英文原文
@AvivaMarket Maybe because it just went up 102% this month even accounting for the drop today? Still up 283% in the last two months on one of my $AXTI positions. Healthy correction aside there was a selloff in a lot of high flying names after $NVDA earnings. https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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NVDA回调属健康调整，AI投资核心仍看台积电与云厂商资本开支。
我目前只是持有仓位，仍在四处寻找机会。发这条推文只是不想让大家因为 $NVDA 下跌 5% 就觉得世界末日到了。这是健康的回调，在我看来，AI 交易中最重要的是关注 $TSM 和超大规模云服务商( Hyperscaler )的资本支出(capex)，而这些数据我们都有了。
英文原文
I'm just sitting on positions, still shopping around. Just wanted to make a post so people don't think the world is over because $NVDA dropped 5%. Healthy correction, most important thing to look out for with the AI trade is $TSM / Hyperscaler capex IMO and we already have those.
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分享 $NVDA 投资者从20万本金获利830万的案例，强调选对赢家的重要性。
真令人惊叹，竟然有人通过 $NVDA 获得了 $830 万 的收益。他们的初始投资：约 $20 万。如果你选对了赢家，市场可以轻松改变人生并造就新百万富翁。
英文原文
It's really amazing that there's people out there with $8.3M gains on $NVDA. Their initial investment: ~$200K. Markets can easily change lives and mint new millionaires if you choose the right winner. https://t.co/0HL93Fd6NJ
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博主调侃自己的收益跑赢了某只热门股的3倍杠杆ETF。
@SingularityRes 哈哈，我仍然不敢相信我的收益竟然跑赢了某只股票每天翻绿（上涨）的3倍杠杆ETF。
英文原文
@SingularityRes LOL, I still can’t believe my returns beat the 3x leveraged ETF of a stock going green every day.
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博主分享AXTI持仓两个月涨幅达310%。
@c_hadjikyriacou 是的，我的 $AXTI 持仓在两个月内上涨了 310% 哈哈。https://t.co/wm237iEqHT
英文原文
@c_hadjikyriacou Yeah I’m up 310% on my $AXTI position in 2 months lol. https://t.co/wm237iEqHT
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回顾AXTI股价两月翻三倍，嘲讽此前Reddit上的看空言论。
@Cheva28789724 我想在我最初的 Reddit 帖子中，关于 $AXTI 没有一条正面评论 lol！其中一半人称之为骗局。希望他们两个月后看到股价翻三倍时能感到开心。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 I don’t think there was a single positive comment on $AXTI on my original Reddit post lol! Half of them called it a scam. Hope they enjoy seeing it go up 3x 2 months later
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博主回顾其光子学个股研究，称相关标的均实现翻倍或数百点涨幅。
这观点经得起时间考验。我写过深度分析帖的光子学(Photonics)个股，从 $LITE 到 $AXTI，股价要么翻倍，要么上涨了几百个百分点。https://t.co/uOKGPFpJha
英文原文
This aged well. Every photonics name I’ve done a thesis post on from $LITE to $AXTI has doubled or increased a few hundred percent. https://t.co/uOKGPFpJha
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AXTI 自发帖低点以来涨幅达 300%，市值 19 亿美元。
@Cheva28789724 $AXTI 市值为 19 亿美元，从我发帖那天的低点算起，回报率约为 300%！https://t.co/yIIUyXHxKd
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 $AXTI is $1.9B, around 300% return from the bottom of the day when I posted! https://t.co/yIIUyXHxKd
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分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
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祝贺$EWY大涨，并复盘自己对存储板块波动率扩张判断的正确性。
@Vcondry84 恭喜 $EWY 实现三位数回报！ 我认为短期波动性比长期波动性更准确，因此这主要是我对存储（Memory）的方向性论点，而非波动率扩张。但很高兴我在这么短的时间内把后半部分（波动率扩张）看对了。
英文原文
@Vcondry84 Congrats on the triple digit return for $EWY! I do think short term volatility was more accurate compared to long term so that was mainly my directional thesis on memory rather than volatility expansion. But glad I got the latter part right in such a short timeframe
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回顾AXTI股价验证其两个月前被质疑的投资论点。
谢谢！主要是 X 平台，但我在 Reddit 上也收获了不少关注。还记得 $AXTI 在暴跌 20% 后跌至 12-13 美元时，我发过评论却遭到了大量负面反应。自那以后股价基本翻了三倍，所以当市场在两个月后验证了我的论点帖子时，感觉确实不错。
英文原文
Thanks! It’s mainly X but I did get a fair share of stuff on Reddit too. Still remember $AXTI was $12-$13 after the 20% drop, I made a comment about it and got a lot of negative reactions. It’s basically tripled since then, so it does feel good when markets vindicate my thesis posts 2 months later.
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回应黑粉质疑，以AXTI大涨验证长期看多逻辑的正确性。
我觉得随着我的账号成长，我现在有了一个专属的“黑粉”粉丝团。 市场是最终的裁判，这使得这些（负面评论）像牛奶一样迅速变质，真是有趣。 $AXTI 自从我首次发帖以来已经上涨了三位数（本周又涨了50%）。 我认为我大多数长篇看多论点的方向是正确的，但它们确实需要时间来兑现。
英文原文
I feel like as my account grows, I have my own dedicated hate poster fanclub now. Markets are the final arbiter, which makes it funny to these things age like milk. $AXTI is now up triple digits since I first posted about it (and another 50% this week) I do think most of my thesis long posts are directionally right, but they do need time to play out.