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吐槽Reddit互动质量差，认为X用户更聪明。
@illyquid 我认为 X 上的人只是更聪明。不幸的是，在 Reddit 上你无法用事实回复别人，只能用梗图。这类互动让我遭受部分脑损伤。 https://t.co/ekXvrGOizF
英文原文
@illyquid I think people on X are just smarter. Unfortunately you can't reply to people on Reddit with facts, just memes. These types of interactions give me partial brain damage. https://t.co/ekXvrGOizF
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推文两小时获15.9万浏览，吐槽Reddit评论质量低。
@illyquid 15.9万次浏览，美国午夜时段发布仅2小时。表现不错。不过看Reddit上的评论会让你感觉智商下降。https://t.co/wreJjyqq6y
英文原文
@illyquid 159k views, 2 hours in during US midnight hours. Not too shabby. Reading the comments on Reddit make you lose IQ though. https://t.co/wreJjyqq6y
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吐槽Reddit社区偏好极端化内容，戏谑提及微软ASIC项目
@illyquid 他们真的用自动审核屏蔽了 $MSFT ASIC 项目的名称 lol 不过我想再和我的好友们开开玩笑。显然，任何分析性的内容都需要被降智并推向极端，Reddit 的受众才会关心 https://t.co/WSH1u5r6Vt
英文原文
@illyquid They literally automodded away $MSFT ASIC program's name lol But thought I'd have some fun with my regarded friends again. Obviously anything analytical needs to be dumbed down and taken to the extreme for the Reddit audience to care https://t.co/WSH1u5r6Vt
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分析InP供应链瓶颈，指出AXT受益于垂直整合，需求总体仍超供应。
我理解你的观点是基于仅看中国国内市场，而未考虑西方AI的扩张。两点如下： 一是整体需求的极端增长。即使有6英寸磷化铟(InP)晶圆，超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的需求仍将超过供应。因此，无论是否存在竞争性替代品，需求不会消失，但可能会分散到中国国内市场的竞争者中。 二是垂直整合。你提到了西方阵营的$DOWA，特别是磷化铟(InP)领域。$AXTI控制了全球绝大部分的InP供应。如果超大规模云服务商为保险起见直接高价采购，再转交给$COHR，那么这对住友电工(Sumitomo)来说问题更大。而AXT则从这两层瓶颈中受益。新耀/JFS进入供应链只是增加了参与者，并非末日景象。例如存储领域（SK海力士；MU，三星）。 当然，如果中国实施出口管制，我们仅看中国国内市场，上述观点可能失效。但总体而言，即使增加更多参与者，需求仍超过供应（例如COHR已满产）。
英文原文
I can see that if you look at China domestic markets only but not western AI ramp. So two things: One is extreme ramp in general. Hyperscaler demand will always outstrip supply even with 6-inch InP wafers. So competitive alternative or not, demand doesn’t disappear but might get spread out through competitive alternatives in China’s domestic market. The other is vertical integration. You mentioned $DOWA on the western side and especially InP. $AXTI controls a huge percent of the world’s InP supply and if those prices gets jacked up from hyperscaler buying direct for insurance-> handing them to $COHR, then it’s more of an issue for Sumitomo. And AXT benefits from both layers of the bottlenecks. Xinyao/JFS entering the supply chain just makes adds one more player to the equation so it’s not doom and gloom. Eg memory (sk Hynix; MU, Samsung) Of course these points might get thrown out the drain if China export controls and we’re looking at China domestic market only. But generally demand outstrips supply (eg. COHR is at max) even if we add in more players.
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梳理AI光子学及InP衬底供应链核心标的，涵盖从底层材料到芯片的全链条。
呃，根据我个人的研究，为了全面覆盖我看好的一切： 1. $AXTI 位于整个供应链的最底端，占据 1/3 的磷化铟(InP)衬底和 1/4 的磷化铟(InP)份额。AI 供应链竟然与这只市值 7 亿美元的股票紧密相连，这完全出乎意料。 2. $DOWA + 住友电气，用于在衬底和材料方面进行西方对冲。 3. $AAOI, $LITE 针对超大规模云服务商的芯片，一家服务于 $AMZN/$MSFT，另一家服务于其他客户但更侧重于 $TPU。 4. $MRVL + $AVGO 我认为这就足以捕捉光子学物料清单(BOM)的价值以及磷化铟(InP)供应冲击。 还有一些其他有趣的标的，比如 Landmark Opto，我正在关注。 $POET 没进这个名单，反正你可以通过 $MRVL 获得敞口，除非我漏掉了什么。
英文原文
Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked: 1. $AXTI at the very bottom of the entire supply chain + 1/3rd of InP substrates 1/4th of InP. Completely unheard of that AI supply chain is tethered to this $700m stock. 2. $DOWA + Sumitomo Electric for Western Hedge on substrate + materials. 3. $AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler chips, one for $AMZN/ $MSFT, the other for everything but more levered to $TPU 4. $MRVL + $AVGO I think that’s kind of all you need to capture photonics BOM value + InP supply shock. There’s some other interesting ones like Landmark Opto that I’m looking at now. $POET didn’t quite make that list and you’d be getting exposure through $MRVL anyway, unless there’s something I missed
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对比住友与AXTI在磷化铟供应链中的地位及风险。
住友电气(Sumitomo)受磷化铟(InP)价格上涨影响，但如果$GOOGL直接向$DOWA或其他供应商采购原料，其影响将减弱。 $AXTI拥有完整的供应链，并占据激光级磷化铟的巨大份额。但明显的下行风险是中国出口管制。 不过住友电气体量巨大，因此你获得的并非最直接的敞口。
英文原文
Sumitomo is subject to hikes in InP prices though if $GOOGL goes direct to $DOWA or others for feedstock. $AXTI owns the whole supply chain, and a huge portion of laser grade inp. But downside is obviously anuke from China exports. Sumitomo Electric is huge though so you’re not exactly getting the most direct exposure.
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分析AXTI/中国磷化铟瓶颈对AI供应链的致命影响及关键材料估值逻辑。
这是一份关于 $AXTI/中国 在衬底生产和激光级磷化铟方面导致整个 AI 基础设施建设出现单点故障的研究笔记。我并未对个别公司进行估值分析。但如果这一流程中断，$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 乃至 $GOOGL、$MSFT 都将面临极端的延迟。如果你们感兴趣，我会另写一篇文章关于如何对关键材料瓶颈进行估值。基本上，如果 2024 年的积压订单为 5000 万美元，而总可寻址市场 (TAM) 为 1.5 亿美元。而现在，由于它是关键材料，如果谷歌愿意为此支付 50 倍的溢价（仅为保持生存而增加 BOM 成本的百分之几），那么原本 5000 万美元积压订单的估值逻辑就会转变为未来产能的 25 亿美元。
英文原文
This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSFT faces extreme delays. I’ll write something else about valuing critical material bottlenecks if you want. But basically if a backlog was $50m from 2024 and TAM was $150m. And now because it’s a critical material, if Google would be willing to pay 50 times that (only a few percent increase on BOM cost to stay alive), then the valuation math of that original $50m backlog -> $2.5B for future capacity changes.
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Coherent虽为西方希望，但受制于磷化铟原料垄断，面临供应链瓶颈风险。
我认为超大规模云计算厂商尚未意识到其中的危险。$COHR 是领先的“近乎垂直整合”的美国公司。但风险在于，它仍受制于磷化铟(InP)原料的瓶颈，并从现货市场购买6N级磷化铟多晶（原料）。 如果上述公司停止销售6N多晶，Coherent 的激光和收发器业务将随着超大规模云计算厂商的建设而有效受阻。 Coherent 并不拥有像 Vital Materials 或 $AXTI 那样规模的主要铟矿或大规模6N合成工厂。 简单来说：Coherent 是打破住友与 $AXTI 之间衬底双寡头垄断的“西方希望”，但他们目前却是磷化铟原料垄断的人质。
英文原文
Don’t think hyperscalers understand the danger yet. $COHR is the leading “virtually integrated” American company. But the risk is it’s still stuck in the bottleneck for InP feedstock and buys 6N InP polycrystal (feedstock) from the merchant market. If the companies above stop selling 6N polycrystal, Coherent’s laser and transceiver business effectively hits a wall alongside the hyperscaler buildout. Coherent does not own major Indium mines or high-volume 6N synthesis plants on the scale of Vital Materials or $AXTI. To put it more simply: Coherent is the "Western Hope" for breaking the substrate duopoly between Sumitomo and $AXTI, but they are currently a hostage to the InP feedstok monopoly.
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AI光互连依赖磷化铟，其原料78%在中国，AXTI成关键瓶颈。
“瓶颈中的瓶颈”：磷化铟(InP) $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 构成双寡头。它们控制了全球 60% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底，是 AI 建设的关键瓶颈。 更令人警觉的是：这依赖于磷化铟(InP)。 磷化铟(InP)是垄断市场。78% 由 $AXTI 和中国控制。 这就是“瓶颈中的瓶颈”： 磷化铟(InP)衬底市场已是日本和中国实体之间的双寡头。然而，上游激光级原料（如住友所需）的生产主要由 $AXTI（再次出现）和中国公司主导。 主要问题在于： AI 行业极度依赖光子学来实现规模化。无论收发器是“基于磷化铟”还是“基于硅”，光源始终是：磷化铟(InP)。 随着 AI 集群从 1 万颗 GPU 扩展到 10 万颗以上，“铜缆瓶颈”迫使全面转向光互连。这使得磷化铟(InP)对 AI 规模化的重要性超过几乎任何其他单一材料。 此外，激光级原料纯度必须至少达到 6N（99.9999%）。即使是微量杂质（硅、硫、锌）也不像 LED 等其他领域那样可接受。大多数研究可能混淆了激光级原料与普通磷化铟产出。 住友是磷化铟衬底市场最著名的名字。他们在高端激光衬底领域占据巨大市场份额。但贸易数据显示，他们越来越依赖来自 $DOWA 和中国公司的外部磷化铟原料。（由于自有回收和储备，他们可能仍被计入原料所有权列表中） 所以，如果认为整个西方 AI 建设因有一家日本公司作为双寡头之一而感到安全，请三思。 瓶颈的源头被 $AXTI 和中国供应商所瓶颈。 如果我们看生产，以下是深度研究估算的控制权分布： Vital Materials - 35%（现货市场） - Vital 在 2020 年收购凡亚金属交易所库存（3600 吨铟），使其掌控全球铟市场。他们利用这一优势成为最大的磷化铟多晶生产商。主导成本领先者；控制原生铟供应（凡亚库存）。 $AXTI - 25%（北京同美晶体技术） - 主要自给自足。其大部分多晶生产被自家晶体生长炉消耗以制造晶圆。但他们也向现货市场销售原材料和化合物，是混合型玩家。 他们是全球唯一从矿山、精炼厂到磷化铟衬底产出的公司，鉴于他们同时拥有原材料和磷化铟衬底控制权，这是一个绝对疯狂的瓶颈。供应自家晶圆生产；关键的非日本来源。 株洲科能新材料 - 18% - 科能实现了“磷化铟多晶量产”并拥有“高度集成的自动多晶生产能力”。他们是中国铟出口配额的关键接收方。纯合成专家；主要出口商。 然后外部： $DOWA - 12% - 西方公司中最大的供应商（是的，日本）。在采矿（秋田锌）方面根基深厚，因此是高纯度金属有机化合物和化合物的领先供应商。 “日本企业”（住友、JX）的“来源” Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - IQE plc 的子公司。对于需要非中国原料的北约联盟供应链来说，这是关键战略资产，尽管他们目前正在进行资产清算。 InPACT（法国）- 3% - InPACT 称他们通过高压合成的水平梯度凝固(HGF)生产多晶锭，以满足（诺基亚、爱立信）和一些欧洲国防部门的要求。 世界其他地区 - 2% 这包括主要衬底制造商（Coherent、住友）、小规模研究生产以及试图打破垄断的韩国或台湾新兴玩家。 现实是，全球 78% 的激光级磷化铟原料产能位于中国。 光组件的需求已经以数倍超过供应/生产。这还是在上量之前。整个 AI 建设被两家公司瓶颈。 但 1/4 的材料来自：$AXTI。而约 1/3 的磷化铟衬底产出再次来自激光级原料。 整个 AI 建设依赖于一家随机的 7 亿美元公司，它既是瓶颈中的瓶颈，也是瓶颈本身。 扩大磷化铟衬底和激光级原料的生产既是国家安全问题。
英文原文
"Bottleneck within a Bottleneck": Indium Phosphide $AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly. They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout. What's even more alarming? This is dependent on: Indium Phosphide. InP is a Monopoly. 78% control by $AXTI / China. Here's the bottleneck within a bottleneck: The InP substrates is already a duopoly between Japanese and Chinese entities. However, upstream production of laser-grade feedstock required by companies like Sumitomo is dominated by $AXTI (again) and Chinese companies. Here's the major issue: The AI industry is extremely reliant on photonics to scale. Whether, transceivers are "InP-based" or "Silicon-based" the photon source remains: Indium Phosphide. As AI clusters move from 10,000 to 100,000+ GPUs, the "copper bottleneck" is forcing a total shift to optical interconnects. This makes InP more critical to AI scaling than almost any other single material. On top of that, laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. And most research probably confuses laser-grade feedstock with regular InP outputs. Sumitomo is arguably the most famous name in the InP substrate market. They hold a massive market share in the high-end laser substrate segment. Yet trade data suggest they are increasingly reliant on external feedstock for Indium Phosphide from companies like $DOWA and from China. (They're likely still included in feedstock ownership lists bc of captive recycling and reserves) So if the entire Western AI buildout feels safe regarding a Japanese company as a duopoly, think again. The source of the bottleneck is bottlenecked by Chinese suppliers like $AXTI and Chinese companies. If we look at production there's are estimates from deep research breakdown of estimate controls: Vital Materials - 35% (Merchant) - Vital acquired Fanya Metal Exchange inventory (3,600 tonnes of Indium) in 2020 gave them large control over the global Indium market. They have leveraged this to become the largest producer of InP polycrystal. Dominant cost leader; controls raw Indium supply (Fanya stocks). $AXTI - 25% (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) - Primarily Captive. Most of their polycrystal production is consumed by their own crystal growth furnaces to make wafers. However, they also sell raw materials and compounds to the merchant market, making them a hybrid player. They're the only company in the world that goes from mines, refineries -> InP substrate output, which is an absolutely crazy bottleneck given they own both the raw materials into InP substrate controls. Feeds own wafer production; key non-Japan source. Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% - Keneng has achieved "mass production of polycrystalline indium phosphide" and possesses "highly integrated automatic polycrystalline production capacity". They are a key recipient of China's export quotas for Indium. Pure-play synthesis specialist; major exporter. Then Outside: $DOWA - 12% - The biggest supplier out of any Western company (yeah Japanese). Deep roots in mining (Akita Zinc), so they're the leading supplier of high-purity metal organics and compounds. The "source" for Japan Inc. (Sumitomo, JX) Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - A subsidiary of IQE plc. Critical strategic asset for NATO-aligned supply chains that require non-Chinese feedstock, even though they're going through asset liquidations right now. InPACT (France) - 3% - InPACT states they produce polycrystalline ingots via Horizontal Gradient Freeze (HGF) using high-pressure synthesis so they meet requirements from (Nokia, Ericsson) and some European defense sectors. Rest of World - 2% This includes major substrate makers (Coherent, Sumitomo), small-scale research production, and emerging players in Korea or Taiwan who are attempting to break the monopoly. The reality is that 78% of the global capacity for laser-grade InP feedstock is located in China. The demand for optical components already exceeds supply/production by multiple factors. This is pre-ramp too. The entire AI buildout is bottlenecked by two companies. But 1/4th of the materials comes from: $AXTI. And ~1/3rd of InP Substrate outputs again comes from laser-grade feedstock. The entire AI buildout is dependent on some random $700m company that serves as both the bottleneck of a bottleneck and the bottleneck. It's both national security issue to scale up InP production both for substrate and laser-grade feedstock.
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三星遭中方窃取存储芯片机密，恐被逐出中国市场，处罚力度引争议。
哇，中国知识产权间谍活动并非新鲜事，但这一事件对三星以及美国/韩国而言简直是灾难性的。窃取全球最先进存储芯片的秘密，然后交给中国国有背景的公司……随后很可能将三星/美光切断出中国国内市场。对于这10名被起诉者，即使只有丝毫牵连，终身监禁作为威慑都不足以构成惩罚。如果他们10年后出狱还能拿到5000万美元的薪水，那这就足以激励这些人继续盗窃。
英文原文
Wow, Chinese IP espionage is not new but this one just catastrophic for Samsung and US/Korea. Stealing secrets of the world's most advanced memory chips then handing them over China’s state backed company…. Then likely cut off Samsung/Micron from China’s domestic market. Maximum life in prison for deterrence isn’t even enough of a punishment for this, from the 10 indicted, even with an iota of involvement. If they get out of jail 10 years later with a $50M paycheck, then that’s incentive enough for these people to continue theft
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构建模型对比磷化铟激光级原料的垂直整合与公开市场供应。
@dr_lmfao_ 是的，绝对如此。我正在构建一个模型，以标准化磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)激光级原料的拥有权，对比像 $AXTI 这样的私有垂直整合玩家，与像 $DOWA 或 Vital Materials 这样在公开市场销售的其他公司。 这极其复杂 lol
英文原文
@dr_lmfao_ Yeah absolutely, I’m working on a model to normalize ownership of indium phosphide for just laser grade feedstock from private vertically integrated players like $AXTI vs others like $DOWA or Vital Materials that sell on open markets. It’s extremely complex lol
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澄清AXTI风险，探讨InP衬底瓶颈下的估值逻辑。
所以我并不主张买入 $AXTI，因为中国供应链存在重大风险，我只是在澄清一些误解。 如果一只股票“已经涨过了”，重要的是要区分它是否比以往任何时候都便宜，即使在历史高点(ATH)时也是如此。 看看 $MU 的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)，我上次查的时候即使在历史高点也小于10。 如果磷化铟(InP)衬底价格因为极端瓶颈而像内存一样翻三倍甚至十倍（鉴于它以前被当作廉价的电信商品定价），它是已经涨过了，还是看起来比以往任何时候都便宜？ 如果一家市值7亿美元的小公司现在成了AI增长周期的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)，因为我们已经触及了InP衬底的天花板，你会如何给它估值？500%的涨幅足够吗？
英文原文
So I’m not advocating for buying $AXTI since there’s significant risks with China supply chains but just clearing up misconceptions. If a stock “already-ran” it’s important to differentiate if the stock is cheaper than ever, even at ATHs. Just look at $MU forward p/e which is <10 last I checked even at ATHs. If inp substrate prices triple or even 10X (given it was priced like a cheap commodity for telecom) like memory because of an extreme bottleneck, did it already run or does it look cheaper than ever? If a $700m tiny company is now the single point of failure for the growth-cycle of AI we’ve hit the ceiling of InP substrates, how would you value it? Is a 500% increase enough?
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AI供应链瓶颈类似当年锂和HBM，衬底及关键组件面临短缺与估值难题。
同意，对于交易者而言，这应该是一个有趣的机会，就像2021年电动车兴起时的锂，或者当前SK海力士和美光的高带宽内存(HBM)，如果人们能早期识别瓶颈的话。 机会众多（$AAOI尽管获得新的超大规模客户订单，年初至今仅上涨2.9%。这与Maia/Tranium等超大规模客户的部署挂钩）。 $MRVL需求极度旺盛，但主要来自Maia在2026年第四季度至2027年的需求，年初至今下跌22%。$POET作为$MRVL扩产的间接受益者。 磷化铟(InP)衬底在整个供应链中普遍短缺。$GOOGL加速TPU部署，利好$LITE，以及$COHR的垂直整合+创纪录积压订单。 像$AXTI这样极其荒谬的玩家，市值仅7亿美元，却几乎是未来AI扩产的单点故障(SPOF)。真不知道该如何给这个估值，哈哈。 $COHR、$LITE和衬底供应商现在正触及产能极限。我们将看到这需要多长时间才能达到像内存那样的极端程度。
英文原文
Agreed, for traders, this should be an interesting opportunity like Lithium in 2021 when EVs came about or HBM currently with Sk Hynix and Micron if people recognized the bottlenecks early. Tons of opportunity ($AAOI only up 2.9% YTD despite new hyperscaler orders. Tied to hyperscaler deployments like Maia/Tranium). $MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD. And $POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too. Shortages throughout the entire supply chain with InP substrates. $GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR Extremely absurd players like $AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp. Not quite sure how you place a value on that lol. $COHR, $LITE and substrate providers are hitting the capacity limits now. We’ll see how much time it takes for his to go to the extremes like memory.
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AXTI估值低反映其风险，AI供应链对其光子学衬底依赖加剧脆弱性。
$AXTI 确实存在很大风险。这就是为什么它的估值仅为 7 亿美元，像是一只仙股，而不是像 $SMTOY 那样超过 300 亿美元，尽管两者都是垂直整合企业且都是最重要的供应商之一。此外，AI 供应链极度依赖该公司提供的用于光子学的 inp 衬底（inp substrates）原材料以实现产能爬坡，这一事实进一步加剧了本已脆弱的 AI 基础设施建设所面临的风险。
英文原文
There is a lot risk with $AXTI for sure. That’s why it’s valued like a penny stock at $700m and not $30B+ like $SMTOY despite being both vertically integrated and one of the most important suppliers. And when you combine with the fact the AI supply chain is extremely reliant on this company for raw materials -> inp substrates they provide for photonics in order to ramp, that’s even a greater risk to the already fragile AI buildout.
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感谢博主分享关于光子学板块个股的见解。
@crux_capital_ 谢谢，我也很喜欢你关于 $LITE、$POET、$AAOI、$COHR、$MRVL 以及其他光子学(Photonics)参与者的帖子。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ Thanks, love your posts on $LITE, $POET $AAOI $COHR, $MRVL, and other photonic players too
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博主以捐款为赌注，质疑AXTI是AI行业瓶颈的说法。
@Qreiseck 如果你能指出市值7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 是如何成为整个 AI 行业瓶颈的，我就向你指定的慈善机构捐款。
英文原文
@Qreiseck I will donate to a charity if your choice if you can point out where you realized a $700m microcap company like $AXTI was the bottleneck for the entire AI sector.
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质疑IQE估值，认为其属困境而非便宜，愿重新评估
@NowAwake_ @VulcanMK5 我上次看的时候，IQE 似乎正在进行资产出售？看起来更像是一家陷入困境的公司，而不是“便宜”。 如果情况有变请告诉我，我会重新审视。
英文原文
@NowAwake_7 @VulcanMK5 Last time I took a look, IQE was going through asset sales? Seemed like a distressed company rather than “cheap”. You can tell me if the story is different and I’ll take another look
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澄清Grok误解，指出AVGO依赖AXTI等InP衬底，AXTI具备全产业链优势。
Grok 可能混淆了晶圆制造(wafer fab)与磷化铟(InP)衬底制造。$AVGO 的 Penn 工厂仍需从住友、$AXTI 或 JX 采购 InP 衬底来制造激光器（这就是瓶颈所在），且它们很可能是客户。 而那家市值仅 7 亿美元的化合物半导体公司 $AXTI 可能是其中唯一一家实现端到端控制的企业，从镓、铟等初始原材料精炼开始就拥有上游资源。 因此，“主要不进口 InP 晶圆/衬底”这一说法可能是错误的。
英文原文
Grok is likely conflating wafer fab with InP substrate manufacturing. $AVGO's penn fab still requires InP substrates from Sumitomo, $AXTI, or JX to build the lasers (hence the bottleneck) and they're likely customers. And that small $700M MC company $AXTI is probably the only one of the bunch that does this end-to-end by owning Gallium, Indium, etc. on from the initial raw material refining. So the "does not primarily import InP wafers/substrates” part is probably wrong.
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光子供应链瓶颈或现类似HBM的投资机会
是的，$LITE 和 $COHR 表现惊人，自拥有强大定价权以来涨幅显著。 若深入挖掘 $AXTI（垂直整合）、住友 -> 同和等更深层环节，集中度风险与瓶颈会发出警示信号。 在 HBM（高带宽内存）领域，当人们发现瓶颈时便出现了投资机会。如今在光子供应链中，随着超大规模云厂商囤积材料并收购产能，很可能存在同样的被忽视的机会。
英文原文
Yep, $LITE and $COHR are amazing and are up quite a bit since they tons pricing power. Go few levels deeper into $AXTI (vertically integrated), Sumitomo -> Dowa, etc. the concentration risk + bottleneck flashes warning signs. With HBM, it was an investment opportunity when people found that bottleneck. There's likely that same overlooked opportunity with photonic supply chains now when hyperscalers hoard materials and acquire capacity.
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InP衬底成AI光互连瓶颈，$AXTI/$SMTOY掌控命脉，2026年或致供应链危机。
“磷化铟(InP)瓶颈”：AI基础设施建设的关键瓶颈解析： $NVDA Blackwell、$META MTAI、$GOOGL TPU 和 $MSFT Maia 的产能爬坡，其未来取决于两家市值仅7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。 如果无法解决 InP 问题，AI“增长”故事将在2026年终结。 原因如下： AI行业正开始向光子学迁移，以部署未来的 ASIC/GPU，因为铜互连已触及物理极限。 然而，超大规模云服务商在这样做时，却将命运押注在了 InP（磷化铟）这一通用材料上，而全球仅有少数工厂能以激光器所需的纯度生产6英寸 InP 晶圆。 以 Google 及其 TPU v7 Ironwood 项目为例： Google 使用光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching, OCS)，简单来说就是由光构成的交换机。Pod 中的每一个 TPU 进行通信都需要基于 InP 的激光器。与 Google 合作的 $LITE 在很大程度上依赖 InP 衬底（如 AXT/住友）来制造这些激光器。 如果没有这些衬底，Google 的整个 Ironwood 项目不仅仅是“放缓”，而是会直接撞墙。 来自 $NVDA GB 系列、$AMZN Trainium、$MSFT Maia、$META MTAI 的现代 ASIC/GPU 都做出了同样的押注：光是未来的方向。 现在，问题出现了。 整个西方 AI 路线图目前都系于一家市值7亿美元的小盘股和一家单一的日本公司，它们生产了全球光子学所需的大部分 InP 衬底。 目前这是一个双寡头格局（粗略估计 AXT + 住友供应约60%），最近的估计显示约70%+的供应来自住友电气、AXT、Freiberger、JX 和 Visual Photonics Epitaxy（填补剩余缺口）。 无论如何，整个未来的 AI 供应链细如针尖： - Moomoo 研究：InP 市场处于“全球争夺”和“严重供应短缺”状态，NVIDIA GB200 的推出（扩展仍需大量 InP，不仅仅是机架内的 NVL72 通信）。 - 高速收发器的需求目前可能超过供应近两倍（LightCounting） - 看到创纪录的预订，但明确“受限于 InP 激光器的供应”（$COHR CEO Q3 财报电话会） - 麦肯锡：800G 模块存在 40% 到 60% 的缺口，1.6T 模块存在 30% 到 40% 的缺口。 鉴于需求的激增，这些报告可能理解得过于保守。即使按照微软对 Maia 爬坡的预测（据 UBS $MRVL 笔记，2027年 Maia 估计超过100万台），加上未来一年超过200万台 1.6T 收发器，这一体量如此之大，代表了全球衬底产量的双位数百分比。 AI 预期的“指数级增长”即将与关键材料生产的现实发生碰撞。因此，“Ironwood”、“MTIA”和“Maia”的爬坡不仅雄心勃勃，在当前材料限制下可能根本不可能实现。 即使 $COHR、JX 日本、住友、$AXTI 等以最大产能扩产（例如 $COHR / JX -> 6英寸 InP 晶圆产能提升4倍），他们可能仍无法满足超大规模云服务商日益增长的需求。特别是考虑到需求激增，例如仅 $NVDA 自身（GB200/GB300 修订版）的需求。 硅光子学等技术解决方案可以弥合差距，但这仍然主要需要外置 InP 激光器作为光源。TFLN 或量子点激光器还需要很多年才能成熟。 未来几年可能无法摆脱对 InP 的需求。 因此，芯片设计与材料可用性之间的错配创造了一个战略瓶颈，在供应链的最底层，极少数公司控制了大部分配额、定价和供应。当叠加美中关系紧张和出口管制的地缘政治风险时，这尤其危险。 话虽如此，以下是可能发生的事情： - 价格飙升：$AXTI、JX、住友的价格将大幅飙升 -> $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创（也会通过下游传导提高价格） - 超大规模云服务商将直接囤积材料，绕过传统组件采购，直接从 $AXTI、JX 日本、住友购买 InP 衬底库存，并直接委托给像 $LITE 这样的收发器制造商。 （例如，Meta 将绕过收发器公司，直接去找 AXT 或住友） - 超大规模云服务商将买断生产配额（就像 $NVDA 已经积极“锁定”EML 产能（在 InP 衬底上制造）那样）。 购买衬底制造商或生产配额将成为一种必要，以免被 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 等竞争对手饿死。 随着 TPU v7 和其他超大规模云服务商在 2026-2027 年爬坡，我们可能会进入衬底的“饥饿游戏”阶段，每个超大规模云服务商都将为了资源配额而相互吞噬对方的增长。 像 $NVDA（拥有创纪录的预分配量）这样的公司可能暂时没事，但其他项目可能会面临重大延误。 思考： 1. 一些超大规模云服务商可能没事（$NVDA）。其他如 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 需要在其他人之前买断材料和配额。 2. 行业需要加倍投入工程转型，如延长铜的使用寿命和更节省材料的方式如硅光子学(SiPh)。 3. 转向6英寸晶圆以提高良率（能缓解情况，但仍不足以满足需求） 因此，现状是，数万亿美元的 AI 扩展系于一些不起眼的7亿美元公司 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。除非架构改变，否则 AI 似乎不可避免地会因 InP 衬底产能而触及物理天花板。 2024年的瓶颈是 GPU。2025年是 HBM。2026年，主要约束很可能是光互连，特别是驱动它们的 InP 衬底。 这已成为 AI 基础设施建设中隐藏的瓶颈。
英文原文
The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation: The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to: A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY. The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP. Here's why: The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit. However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers. Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program: Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them. If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall. Modern ASICs/GPUs from $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward. Now, here's the issue. The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics. It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps). Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle: - Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm). - Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting) - Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER) - McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules. And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output. The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints. Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions). There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away. There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years. So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls. That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen: - Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down) - Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE. (eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo) - Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates). Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out. As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation. Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays. Thoughts: 1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do. 2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh. 3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand) So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them. This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.
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回顾对Lighter的投资决策，并询问对方错过了什么机会。
@Cbb0fe 我记得曾为 Lighter 的 A 轮融资做过分析。尽管我记得当时说过它在技术上并不复杂，但我最终还是投资了。那你错过了什么呢？是私募融资还是代币发行事件？https://t.co/9hnxZY2YFM
英文原文
@Cbb0fe I remember doing an analysis for Lighter’s Series A round. Ended up investing, even though I remember saying it wasn’t technically complex to make. What did you miss out on though? Private funding or token event https://t.co/9hnxZY2YFM
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InP衬底短缺成AI瓶颈，AXTI与SMTOY具关键战略价值。
没错。这正是我向 @sama、@sundarpichai、@satyanadella 及西方 AI 领袖敲响警钟的原因：磷化铟(InP)衬底严重短缺/瓶颈将限制未来涉及光子学的 TPU/ASIC 部署。基于 InP 的收发器/激光器需求远超供应数倍（来源：LightCounting + 麦肯锡）。我们才刚开始 AI 扩张，TPU 相关的 InP 衬底行业已遇瓶颈 -> 被两家企业扼住咽喉：$AXTI、$SMTOY。若贸易战影响 $AXTI，AI 集群扩展将面临材料真空。这两家公司的重要性无与伦比，暂且不论股价。
英文原文
Exactly. You just out why I'm sounding all the alarm bells to @sama, @sundarpichai, @satyanadella and Western AI leaders about huge InP substrate shortages/bottlenecks limiting future TPU/ASIC deployment involving photonics. Demand FAR exceeds supply for InP-based transceivers/lasers by multiple factors (source: LightCounting + McKinsey). We've only started the AI ramp with the TPU and the InP substrate industry is already bottlenecked -> held at chokepoint by two players: $AXTI, $SMTOY If trade wars affect $AXTI, there's just a complete void of available materials to scale AI clusters. There's just incredible importance on these two companies, stock price aside.
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AXTI和SMTOY垄断InP衬底，成西方AI光互连供应链致命瓶颈。
这令人极度警惕的是，西方AI基础设施建设可能会被像$AXTI和$SMTOY这样市值仅7亿美元的小公司扼住咽喉。 磷化铟(InP)衬底曾是电信领域的极小众材料，但随着其成为全球激光器和光互连(Photonics Interconnects)的关键材料，这突然变成了国家安全紧急事件。 我不确定顶级供应商是否意识到了这一点，或者至少没有意识到问题的规模（例如，与$LITE签约时并未深入考察Lite的材料供应商），因为供应链正被两家公司严重卡脖子。 以Google TPU v7的量产为例，由于他们的芯片组使用共封装光学(CPO)，几乎完全依赖光子学，这对InP供应链造成了前所未有的压力/依赖，而这种依赖在几个月前根本不存在。 随着铜互连触及上限，AI行业对AXTI的依赖本质上变成了对某家供应所有材料的小盘股的“单点故障”。 我看的不是营收数据，这种依赖关系简直荒谬，1.6T网络架构直接瘫痪。 我不确定企业接下来该怎么办，我确信他们会尝试囤积材料或签订多年协议，但无论如何，这两家公司掌握着所有主动权。
英文原文
That’s what’s so incredibly alarming, that the Western AI buildout might be held at choke point by an obscure $700m company like $AXTI and $SMTOY. InP substrates were incredibly niche for telecom, but it’s suddenly a national security emergency as it became the material used for the world’s lasers and optional interconnects. I’m not quite sure the top level vendors realized this or at least didn’t realize the scale of this issue (eg. Signing agreements with $LITE without going deeper into the material suppliers for Lite), as the supply chain is incredibly becoming choke pointed by two companies. Google’s TPU v7 ramp for example placed an unprecedented strain/dependency on the InP supply chain that simply didn't exist a few months ago, since they use OCS for their chip pods, which is almost all in on photonics. As we’ve hit the upper limits with copper, the AI industry's reliance on AXTI is essentially a "single point of failure” on some small cap that supplies the materials for everything. I’m not looking at revenue numbers here, this dependency is just absurd, the 1.6T networking just breaks. I’m not sure where companies go from here, I’m sure they’ll try and hoard materials or secure multi-year agreements but either way two companies hold all the cards.
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磷化铟供应高度集中，成为AI基建关键瓶颈。
这是多方面的。然而，磷化铟(InP)的情况极其极端，因为 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 控制了全球约 60%以上的这一关键供应。 行业从铜向光子学的转变，在整个建设过程中造成了这种结构性的单点故障。 超大规模数据中心中的每一个光收发器/互连设备，无论是 Google 的 TPU、NVIDIA 的共封装光学(CPO)路线图，还是 AWS/Meta 的网络，都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的组件。 这就是瓶颈的定义。 整个万亿美元 AI 建设的未来，取决于某只市值 7 亿美元的随机仙股和日本工业巨头的稳定性。
英文原文
It's multifaceted. However, InP is EXTREME because $AXTI and $SMTOY control roughly 60%+ of this critical global supply. The industry's shift from copper to photonics has created this structural single point of failure on the entire buildout. Every optical transceiver/interconnects in hyperscaler data centers from Google TPUs, NVIDIA's CPO roadmap, AWS/Meta networks requires InP-based components. This is the definition of a bottleneck. The future of the entire trillion dollar AI buildout depends on the stability of some random $700m penny stock and a Japanese industrial giant.
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InP衬底成AI供应链瓶颈，$AXTI等公司议价权极大。
这由你自己去判断。我只是指出，两家公司（其中一家市值仅6亿美元）恰好是近期整个AI交易的关键瓶颈。历史上，磷化铟(InP)衬底是一种廉价的大宗商品。而现在……它们不再是了。如果每个花费数千亿美元购买GPU/ASIC的超大规模数据中心(hyperscaler)都无法在没有价值2000万美元的InP的情况下运转，那么像$AXTI这样的公司理论上可以将价格提高5倍，而这对于整体支出来说只是零头。你还需要考虑中国带来的巨大地缘政治风险，但如果整个建设进程被一两家公司的瓶颈所限制，60亿美元的市值通常只是微不足道的零钱。
英文原文
That’s for you to figure out. I’m just highlighting how two companies (one of which is worth $600m) happens to be the bottleneck of the entire AI trade in the near future. Historically InP substrates were a cheap commodity. And now… they’re not. If every single hyperscaler spending hundreds of billions of GPUs/ASICs can’t function without $20m of InP, companies like $AXTI can theoretically raise prices 5x and it would be a rounding error. There is a massive geopolitical risk with China for you to consider too but $600m MC is typically hilarious pocket change if the entire buildout is bottlenecked by one or two companies.
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谢谢。我们可能暂时看不到磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈，但随着超大规模云服务商ASIC（TPU、Trainium、Maia等）放量，预计2026年中将出现类似存储的供应紧张。这并不意味着材料供应商应像$LITE那样估值，但整个未来AI建设存在单一故障点，且源自$AXTI这样一家市值仅6亿美元的小公司，这很有趣。
英文原文
Thanks, we might not see a InP substrate bottleneck yet, but we’ll likely see it when hyperscaler ASICs (TPU, Trainium, Maia, etc.) ramp up -> supply strains like memory mid-2026. That doesn’t quite mean material providers should be valued like $LITE, but the fact that the entire future AI buildout has a single point of failure that comes from a small $600m company like $AXTI is amusing.
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因AI供应链瓶颈逻辑，做多光子股并提示AXTI地缘风险。
披露：我在光子学领域持有 $LITE、$AAOI 和 $AXTI 的头寸。 从我个人的思考过程来看，如果我观察到整个 AI 行业以及像 $LITE 和中际旭创(Innolight)这样的玩家，都被一家市值不足 6 亿美元（甚至低于一家尚未盈利的 LLM 初创公司）的企业所瓶颈制约，我会做多。 下行风险包括：如果中国希望限制 $AXTI 在美国市场，可能会改变其所有权稀释结构。
英文原文
Disclosure: I have positions in $LITE, $AAOI, and $AXTI in the photonics sector. From my own personal thought process, if I see the entire AI industry and players like $LITE and Innolight bottlenecked by some $600m company worth less than a new pre-revenue LLM startup, I’m long. There is downside risk including changing ownership dilution structures if China wants to restrict $AXTI in US markets.
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HBM（高带宽内存）在2025年是一个关键瓶颈，我们从$MU和SK海力士身上看到了这一点。 正在研究未来超大规模云计算厂商ASIC（专用集成电路）部署所使用的组件，整个行业正在向光子学（Photonics）转型。 如果我们深入该供应链的底层，用于INP（绝缘体上铟磷）基板的供应商只有两家公司。想到这一点真是荒谬。 对于像$AXTI这样的公司来说，这可能是一个巨大的市场机会，但仅从国家安全风险的角度来看，这是一个需要被审视的疯狂瓶颈。虽然有像$COHR这样的公司，但远未达到AI基础设施建设所需的规模。
英文原文
HBM was a critical bottleneck in 2025 and we've seen that with $MU and SK Hynix. Just researching components used for future hyperscaler ASIC deployments, the whole industry is moving to photonics. If we go to the bottom of that supply chain it's just two companies for INP substrates. Which is absurd to think about. It could be a huge market opportunity for investors for stuff like $AXTI, but just in terms of national security risk, it's just a crazy bottleneck that needs to be looked at. There's companies like $COHR, but nowhere near to scale required for AI buildout.
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AXTI和住友垄断InP衬底，或成AI光子化最大瓶颈。
警告：整个AI行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN等超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于InP的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用电吸收调制激光器(EML)用于800G/1.6T光模块、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 没有InP衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球InP衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光器件（TPU集群等） - 光模块（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)和英特尔/博通硅光子学引擎使用InP连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友（估计~30%） - JX日本（估计10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电气+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的InP衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，InP衬底可能会成为与高带宽内存(HBM)并列的最大瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.
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承认招聘初筛存在学历偏见，后续则公平竞争。
@pepemoonboy 说实话，所有人（包括我自己）都有轻微的学历偏见，在初筛面试时会优先筛选拥有硕士(MS)学位而非学士(BS)学位的候选人。过了这一关之后，大家就公平竞争了。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Tbh everyone (myself) included have a slight credentialism bias and would screen a MS over BS degree for first round interviews. After that it’s fair game.