· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AXTI
这由你自己去判断。我只是指出，两家公司（其中一家市值仅6亿美元）恰好是近期整个AI交易的关键瓶颈。历史上，磷化铟(InP)衬底是一种廉价的大宗商品。而现在……它们不再是了。如果每个花费数千亿美元购买GPU/ASIC的超大规模数据中心(hyperscaler)都无法在没有价值2000万美元的InP的情况下运转，那么像$AXTI这样的公司理论上可以将价格提高5倍，而这对于整体支出来说只是零头。你还需要考虑中国带来的巨大地缘政治风险，但如果整个建设进程被一两家公司的瓶颈所限制，60亿美元的市值通常只是微不足道的零钱。
That’s for you to figure out. I’m just highlighting how two companies (one of which is worth $600m) happens to be the bottleneck of the entire AI trade in the near future. Historically InP substrates were a cheap commodity. And now… they’re not. If every single hyperscaler spending hundreds of billions of GPUs/ASICs can’t function without $20m of InP, companies like $AXTI can theoretically raise prices 5x and it would be a rounding error. There is a massive geopolitical risk with China for you to consider too but $600m MC is typically hilarious pocket change if the entire buildout is bottlenecked by one or two companies.