2025-12-26 · 供应链分析

AXTI和住友垄断InP衬底，或成AI光子化最大瓶颈。

涉及标的： $AMZN $AVGO $AXTI $COHR $GOOGL $LITE $META $MSFT $NVDA $SMTOY

中文翻译

警告：整个AI行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元）这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。未来$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN等超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于InP的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用电吸收调制激光器(EML)用于800G/1.6T光模块、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。没有InP衬底，供应链就会停滞。在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球InP衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光器件（TPU集群等） - 光模块（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)和英特尔/博通硅光子学引擎使用InP连续波激光阵列。）由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友（估计~30%） - JX日本（估计10-15%）仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电气+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的InP衬底市场”）超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。随着AI行业向光子学转变，InP衬底可能会成为与高带宽内存(HBM)并列的最大瓶颈之一。

英文原文

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.

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