个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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作者认为Nebius获超大规模云厂商注资后去风险，100美元仍被低估。
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 嗯，在 $MSFT 交易后建立投资信念(investing conviction)并没有错。 我在 $NBIS 低于 40 美元时就已持有，但直到一家超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)投入 170 多亿美元为公司去风险(de-risk)后，我才真正建立起信念。 话虽如此，每个人都有自己的观点，但我认为 Nebius 在 100 美元时仍被低估。
英文原文
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 Hmm, nothing wrong with developing conviction after the $MSFT deal. I had $NBIS sub $40 but only developed conviction after 17B+ from a hyperscaler de-risked the company. That said everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I just think Nebius is undervalued at $100.
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反驳外部优势论，强调全栈软件与运营效率才是NBIS高毛利护城河。
是的，我同意这种拆解。但我觉得你关注错了重点（外部竞争优势）。 他们全栈软件(software full stack)加上涵盖初创企业、中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化自身的运营支出(opex)，这本身就是护城河(moat)。 你提到了像 $IREN 这样的矿企(miners)，但如果看看 $ORCL，他们在利润率以及未能转化为实际效益的建设/转型（如建设后的GPU利用率等）方面曾举步维艰。拥有其他软件层也会降低利润率，$CRWV 就亲身经历了这一点，这也是他们近期斥资数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，拥有原始算力(raw capacity)并不总能转化为良好的利润率，就像 $NBIS 已经拥有的那样（如果我没记错的话，上次财报(ER)显示其毛利率为71.2%），这是全栈+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户带来的优势，而那些转型的矿企将不具备这一点。
英文原文
Yeah I’d agree with the breakdown. But think you’re focusing on the wrong thing (external competitive advantage). Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is the moat in and of itself. You mention miners like $IREN but if we look at $ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers also reduces margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins like what $NBIS already has (71.2% gross from last ER, if I remember correctly) being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs that miners that pivot won’t have.
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认为NBIS核心业务被低估，机构持仓将大幅上升。
抛开子公司不谈，仅看核心业务，我认为 $NBIS 被低估了。Nebius 在短短1年内从1亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）增长到10亿-15亿美元 ARR，这种增长速度令人震惊。这是小公司赋能 $GOOGL Cloud、$MSFT Azure、$AMZN Web Services 等基础设施的世代性机遇，而这些是 Mag7（美股七巨头）中最盈利的板块。散户并未看到这一机会。机构肯定看到了，我不惊讶于 Nebius 的机构持股比例从38%在6个月内升至65%。
英文原文
Subsidiaries aside and just the core business, I think $NBIS is undervalued. It is mindblowing how Nebius is growing from $100m ARR to $1B-1.5B in just 1Y. And this is a generational chance for small companies to power the infrastructure of $GOOGL Cloud, $MSFT Azure, $AMZN Web Services and others, the most profitable segments of Mag7. Retail doesn't see this opportunity. Institutions definitely do and I would not be surprised if Nebius was 65% owned by institutions from 38% in 6 months time.
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作者认为NBIS估值偏低，利好AI算力及供应链相关个股。
我礼貌地表示反对，“公允价值”应该更高。新的$NBIS数据中心将提升经常性收入(ARR)，三次降息是巨大的催化剂。刚刚，Anthropic可能与$GOOGL签署200亿美元以上的协议，这对Clickhouse、$WULF、$IREN和Neoclouds都是利好。$META与$CRWV的交易也是如此。Google/七巨头(Mag7)受算力限制，这对Nebius（尽管在此消息下仍下跌5.6%）是更大的催化剂，预计其将有更多超大规模云服务商合同落地。
英文原文
I respectfully disagree, "fair value" should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst. Just now, Anthropic might sign a $20B+ dollar deal with $GOOGL, which is bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds. $META x $CRWV deals. Google/Mag7 is compute limited, and this is only a bigger catalyst for Nebius (which is still down 5.6% despite this news), which likely has more hyperscaler contracts on the way.
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Nebius基本面强劲，机构正借散户恐慌低位吸筹，建议买入。
Nebius 的走势完全符合机构投资者的预期： 散户恐慌。 投降式抛售。 流动性释放。 我几周前就说过：$NBIS 的机构持股比例约为 38%。为了将这一比例提升至 65-80%（就像 $HOOD 那样），他们会不惜使用所有手段： 以下是发生这一切的原因： 在上个月微软（MSFT）达成 170-190 亿美元的交易后，Nebius 进入了华尔街的视野。在此之前，由于非传统的公开上市方式，其机构持股比例一直低于 30%。 与此同时，我们看到了 Nebius 基本面的爆发式增长： 1. 🚀 远期营收增长超 1,000%，毛利率达 55-75%，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 增至 40-60 亿美元以上。 2. 💼 拥有 Clickhouse 等公司的大量股权，后者为 Anthropic、Meta、Lyft 等提供支持。 3. ⚡ NBIS 为微软 Azure 以及可能更多的 Mag7 基础设施提供支持，这些是超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的现金牛。 4. 🌊 凭借全栈 + 软件 GPU 编排 (GPU Orchestration) 构建巨大护城河，从而带来更高的毛利率。 5. 💸 史上最大规模的数据中心建设，Meta 已与 CRWV 签约，其他超大规模云服务商紧随其后。我们看到了台积电 (TSM) 在此建设中的远期预测，数据惊人。 6. 🏦 三次降息提振了远期营收预测。 Nebius 是极具吸引力的买入标的，是一家百年一遇的公司，目前市值 260 亿美元，股价 100 美元。 我们在 Robinhood ($HOOD) 身上见过这种剧本：当股价为 20 美元时，曾出现低于市值目标价 50% 的情况和负面报道。然而，Robinhood 的季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增长至 9.5 亿 -10 亿美元，市值从 150 亿美元涨至 1300 亿美元，最终成为华尔街的宠儿。 华尔街和机构投资者清楚地看到 Nebius 未来一年的潜力，但尚未建立大量头寸。 然而，散户只看到下跌的股价、关于甲骨文 (Oracle) 试图进入该领域亏损 1 亿美元的耸人听闻的文章，以及当前 1 亿美元的营收数据，而非预测的季度营收 10 亿美元以上。 因此，即使价格看似因边际交易而下跌，即使更多股份被买入： 1. 散户恐慌性抛售，遭遇保证金清算 (Margin Liquidation)。 2. 做市商 (MMs) 针对短期期权（散户卖出看涨期权或买入短期看涨期权的对手方）进行机械对冲，加剧下行压力，引发抛售。 3. 从 Citadel 到 Virtu 的做市商通过从散户手中买入来吸收流动性。 4. 做市商通过大宗交易 (Block Trades) 和暗池 (Dark Pools) 向机构卸载头寸以进行对冲和再平衡。（收割机构的抛售） 5. 机构在压低股价的同时进行低可见度的积累。（例如：散户卖出 10 万股，机构买入 15 万股，而股价下跌。） 散户看到“红色交易日”并认为“没人买入”，而积累仍在悄悄进行。 散户情绪崩溃，但基本面仅有所改善（例如：基于估算，新的以色列数据中心建设将增加约 8000 万美元以上的 ARR）。 这是一个缓慢且战略性的过程，对冲基金和机构将 Nebius 视为潜在的下一个 1000 亿美元市值公司，从而积累大量流通股本。 基本面没有改变——只有股价和散户情绪发生了变化。
英文原文
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.
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反驳NBIS套牢论，看好其全栈优势及高增长前景。
@Mitchelldzll 我认为用“套牢者(bagholder)”来形容 $NBIS 并不准确，这是一家拥有代际意义的、全栈式(full-stack)的公司，其未来季度营收增长超过1000%，并且拥有对长期护城河至关重要的投资组合公司。我目前在高确信度(high conviction)股票上从未判断失误。这仅仅是个开始。
英文原文
@Mitchelldzll Don’t think bagholder is a correct term for $NBIS, a generational full-stack company growing forward q revenue 1000%+, which owns critical portfolio companies for long term defensibility. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stocks yet. This is just the beginning
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看好$TE跑赢大盘，计划本周发布深度分析文章。
@soulbiri1 $TE 将会跑赢大盘！ 说笑归说笑，我明天或本周晚些时候会尝试写一篇关于此的分析文章。 我确实对此做了相当多的研究，但能源板块不像新云基础设施(Neoclouds)或其他板块那样，我能如此清晰地阐述其逻辑。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $TE is going to outplay the market! But jokes aside I’ll attempt a writeup on this tomorrow or later in the week. I did do a decent amount of research into this but energy is not as something I can as cleanly articulate compared to Neoclouds or other sectors
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看好NBIS长期看涨期权，认为终将获利
@soulbiri1 我认为这些 $NBIS 的看涨期权(leaps)将会行权获利！只是时间问题，我喜欢虚值(OTM) $120 的行权价，选得好
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I think these $NBIS leaps are going to print! Just a matter of time, I like the OTM $120 strike, good choice
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NBIS 短期回调不改长期看好，机构持仓低且数据中心业务爆发。
$NBIS 在无重大消息情况下下跌 17% 并未改变我的信念。我的牛市目标价(PT) 仍为 $400。 我们以前见过这种走势： - $ASTS 每股收益(ER) 从 $58 跌至 $36，随后涨至 $83。 - $GOOGL 因 AI 搜索业务从 $170 跌至 $144，随后涨至 $257。 - $HOOD 因宏观因素从 $40 跌至 $28，随后涨至 $135。 当基本面和行业势头保持完好时，尽管短期下跌，坚定的信念终将获得回报。 来自 META、GOOGL、MSFT 的超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 正向 AI 数据中心投入数十亿美元，而 Nebius 正在为 Mag7 的现金牛业务提供支持，预计还将有更多超大规模云服务商的交易。未来季度营收预计同比激增 1000%。这种增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。 机构持股比例较低（流通股的 38.3%），随着公司成长，各种手段将被用来从散户手中获取更多股份。 基本面和数据中心增长并未改变，反而呈指数级改善。（例如：今天宣布的新 Nebius 以色列数据中心，以及不断增长的年度经常性收入(ARR)）。 现在是做多(best times go long)的最佳时机，也是市场中赚取世代财富的地方。
英文原文
The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400. We've seen this move before: - $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83. - $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257. - $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135 When fundamentals and industry momentum stay intact, conviction pays off despite any short-term drop. Hyperscalers from META, GOOGL, MSFT, are pouring billions into AI data centers, and Nebius is powering the cash cows of Mag7 with more hyperscaler deals likely to come. Forward quarterly revenue is set to explode 1000% Y/Y. This type of growth is almost unheard of in history. Institutional ownership is low (38.3% of the float) and every trick in the book will be played to acquire more shares off retail as the company grows. Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. (eg. new Nebius Israel data center announcement today, growing ARR). These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.
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博主回应粉丝关于 $TE 的长期讨论，确认已建仓。
@mysticall3g3nd 哈哈，你在评论区关于 $TE 的帖子发了挺久了，终于建仓了。
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd Haha you’ve been posting about $TE for quite some time in the comments, finally initiated positions
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解释投资TE和NBIS的逻辑，看好能源及NBIS年底涨幅。
谢谢！哈哈，这篇写得不太好，只是我承认自己缺乏领域知识，无法给出好的观点。 但我选择投资 $TE，因为我知道能源行业将是数据中心建设（Data Center Buildout）的受益者，而且我信任他人的尽职调查（DD）。 至于 $NBIS，对我来说就像是大甩卖，因为我确实认为它年底会涨到 200 美元以上。 我不认为它会再次跌破 100 美元，在我买入更多 LEAPS 之前，为了捕捉真正的底部而节省那百分之几的利润并搞砸复苏行情，对我来说并不值得。
英文原文
Thanks! Not a great writeup lol, it’s just me admitting I don’t have domain knowledge and can’t give a good opinion. But I chose to invest in $TE bc I know the energy sector will be a beneficiary of the data center buildout + I trust DD of others. As for $NBIS, it’s like a fire sale to me since I do think it ends up $200+ end of year. Don’t think it goes below $100 again and saving a few percent catching the true bottom + messing up recovery wasn’t worth it for me before I bought more leaps.
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因看好数据中心建设受益逻辑，建立T1 Energy小仓位。
在 T1 Energy $TE 建立了一个小仓位（5万股，4月期权），部分原因是我喜欢《英雄联盟》和 Faker。 我持有 $FLNC、SEI 和 $EOSE（已减仓）等能源股，表现非常好。 但像其他领域一样，能源行业有望从数据中心建设潮中受益，7亿美元市值的风险回报比不错。 我可以自信地说，我对太阳能/电池/能源领域了解不够深入，无法给出扎实的基本面论点，这是其他 X 用户推荐的。所以我不打算假装在这个领域有专业知识。 但一般来说，当一家公司远期营收同比增长 300%，且今年营收从去年的几乎为零起步达到 8-9 亿美元时，这是一个积极信号。即使毛利率为 25%，仍有 5-6 亿美元的债务。但增长惊人，且是数据中心建设潮的受益者。 有时只需要对某个板块迈出信任的一步，并信任 X 上同行们的尽职调查（DD）。
英文原文
Initiated a small position ($50k shares, $50k April calls) in T1 Energy $TE $4.45, partly because I like League of Legends and Faker. I have energy positions such as $FLNC, SEI and $EOSE (trimmed) that performed very well. But like the rest, energy is pointed to benefit from the data center buildout and a $700m MC is a good risk-reward. I can confidently say I don’t know enough about solar/battery/energy to give a good fundamental thesis but got recommended this from other X users. So I’m not going to try to pretend I have domain expertise in this. But generally, when a company Grows forward revenue 300% y/y and starts the year off with 800-900m revenue from almost 0 the previous year, this a positive sign. Even with 25% gross margins, there’s quite a lot of debt 500-600m. But the growth is staggering and a beneficiary of the data center buildout. Sometimes just need to take the leap of faith with a sector and trust DD of peers on X.
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建议做多NBIS/WLAC及TSM/AMZN看涨期权，认为当前是最佳做多时机。
@capybara_830 说实话，$NBIS、$WLAC，然后将 $NVO 拆分并买入 6 个月后的 $TSM 和 $AMZN 看涨期权，听起来太完美了。目前已有两次降息预期，且市场刚经历回调，正进入季节性表现最佳的月份。如果现在有任何时机做多，那就是现在。
英文原文
@capybara_830 Honestly $NBIS, $WLAC, then splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful. There’s 2x rate cuts and a recent correction going into the best seasonal months. Now’s the best time to go long if any.
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对比NBIS基本面与量子计算股泡沫，认为后者估值虚高。
区别在于，$NBIS 在2026年的远期营收(Forward Revenue)为40-60亿美元，毛利率(Gross Margins)约为70%。 其市值为280亿美元，且存在支撑该估值的前瞻性增长基本面。 而量子计算(Quantum)公司大多尚未实现营收，其大量收入来自利息而非营收。像 $RGTI 和 $QBTS 这样没有实质性远期营收的公司，市值却高达数百亿美元，这显然是泡沫。
英文原文
The difference is that $NBIS is doing 4-6B forward revenue in 2026 off ~70% gross margins. The market cap is 28B and forward growth fundamentals are there to support valuation. Quantum are pre-revenue with a lot of their income coming from interest instead of revenue. Companies like $RGTI and $QBTS that have no meaningful forward revenue, while being valued at tens of billions is a bubble.
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认为地缘政治风险可控，看好台积电及AI基建股。
并非如此。无论特朗普政府还是其他政府，中国都不会入侵台湾，因为 $TSM 是美国最大的国家安全风险之一。 美国没有全民医保是有原因的，任何可能入侵的国家都会发现原因并遭到彻底摧毁。 因此，我对 $TSM 及相关半导体或 AI 基础设施建设 $NBIS 感到放心。
英文原文
Not really. China won’t invade Taiwan under Trump administration or others since $TSM is one of the largest national security risks to United States. There’s a reason US doesn’t have universal healthcare and any country that might invade would find out why + get flattened to the ground. Hence why I’m comfortable with $TSM and related semis or AI buildout $NBIS
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计划买入$TE，但坦言非能源专业领域。
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy 是的，我可能会买入一些 $TE，它已经在我关注列表中一段时间了。不过能源领域并非我的专业领域，所以我的评论可能没那么有用。
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy Yeah I’ll probably be buying a bit of $TE, it’s been on my radar for awhile. Energy isn’t really in my domain expertise though, so my commentary wouldn’t be as useful
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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博主看好WLAC和NBIS，认为WLAC IPO潜力巨大。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，我非常看好 $WLAC 和 $NBIS，那是我的前两名。 $WLAC 在首次公开募股(IPO) 时拥有巨大的上涨空间，只是目前还没有人知道 boost 这个指标，不过它确实是个很棒的指标！我也应该用用看哈哈。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah I really liked $WLAC and $NBIS, those were my top 2. WLAC has huge upside when they IPO, just nobody knows about boost yet, great metric though! I should use that too lol
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FLY借NOC技术降低风险，有望在2026-27年竞争中型火箭市场。
我之前写过，简而言之是 $FLY 正在与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭，而由 $NOC 共同开发将降低任何执行风险。在俄乌战争导致其供应链崩溃之前，NOC 就已经拥有成熟的 expendable medium-lifts（一次性中型运载火箭）。NOC + Fly = 即插即用的中型运载火箭基本就绪，他们只需将其改为可重复使用即可。我的论点(Thesis)是，Fly 可以通过依托诺斯罗普的可重复使用中型运载火箭发射器，跳过自行构建成功小型运载火箭的过程，从而与猎鹰9号(Falcon 9)竞争。如果他们在 2026-2027 年成功实现，市值从 30-40 亿增长 5-10 倍是有可能的。此外，我认为市场并未计入诺斯罗普执行此计划的可能性，因为人们只关注 FLY 的失败，但 NOC 是最大的政府航空航天承包商之一。
英文原文
I wrote about it earlier but a TLDR was $FLY was working with Northrop on reuable medium lift and having $NOC co-developing it would reduce any execution risk. NOC had working expendable medium-lifts already before Russia-Ukraine war and their supply chain fell apart. NOC + Fly = Working medium lift plug and play med kinda ready to go, they just needed to make it re-usable. Thesis was Fly can leapfrog building successful small-lift themselves by piggy backing off of Northrop on reusable medium-lift launchers to complete with falcon9 and upside on a 3-4B marketcap could be 5-10x if they got it to work in 2026-2027. I also didn't think markets were pricing in Northrop executing on this cause they just keep pointing to FLY's failures but, NOC is one of the largest government aerospace contractors.
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做市商压制NBIS股价，预期周一空头平仓后反弹，故买入看涨期权。
做市商(MM)很可能正在对 $NBIS 进行价格压制(Pinning)，尽管市场波动，股价仍卡在 $113.5 附近。我预计周一空头对冲头寸将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并卖出看涨期权 -> 临近到期时存在大量空头头寸），价格将回升，因此我利用这次机会在高隐含波动率(IV)下买入看涨期权。
英文原文
It's likely MM pinning for $NBIS, you can see this with the price stuck at $113.5 despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up, hence why I used this time to buy calls despite elevated IV.
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看好某只股票，认为持有无问题且上行空间大。
@Lxizny 这是一只很棒的股票，持有它没有任何问题，上行空间很大。
英文原文
@Lxizny It's a great stock, nothing wrong with holding, lot of upside.
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NBIS下跌源于交易因素非基本面，建议周一做市商解除对冲后做多。
是的，$NBIS 这10%的下跌是市场做市商(MM)的对冲加上期权平仓（混合了散户的保证金清算），并非基本面有任何变化。 -> 很多人卖出了看跌期权(Puts) -> 很多人持有的看涨期权(Calls)本周到期。 你可以看到盘后股价完全被钉在$113.5。 在我看来，周一市场做市商(MM)解除空头对冲后，现在是做多和买入的好时机。
英文原文
Yeah this $NBIS 10% drop was MM hedging + option unwinds (with a mix of retail margin liqudations), not any changes to fundamentals. -> Lot of people sold puts -> Lot of people had calls expiring this week. You can see how the stock is completely pinned at $113.5 after hours. Great time to go long and buy positions IMO after MMs unwind short hedges Monday.
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博主在 HIMS 大跌时加仓，表示拥抱波动。
@DeepValueBagger 我今天实际上在 $HIMS 下跌 14.34% 至 50.7 美元时加仓了。拥抱波动 🎢
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@DeepValueBagger I just added $HIMS today actually at $50.7 on the 14.34% drop Embrace the volatility 🎢
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认同对方观点，因判断为极端下跌而买入LEAPS。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，完全正确。我只是觉得这是极端下跌，所以最终选择了做多LEAPS（长期股权预期权）。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yep, spot on. I just felt like this was the extreme drop so ended up doing leaps.
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博主计划在NBIS大跌时买入长期期权。
@DeepValueBagger 我一直在等待像这样（基本面没有实质性变化）10%以上的跌幅，以便买入 $NBIS 的长期期权（LEAPS）。很高兴你也看到了这个机会。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I've been waiting for a 10%+ drop like this (with no material changes to fundamentals) to buy leaps on $NBIS. Glad you see the opportunity too.
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作者基于信念交易，认为NBIS长期期权表现将类似HOOD的V型反转。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 的LEAPS（长期期权）应该会有不错的表现，这让我想起$HOOD从40美元跌至29美元，随后反弹至100美元以上的时期。 我基于自己的信念进行交易！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $NBIS leaps should print, reminds me of the time $HOOD went from $40 to $29 then went on a rally to $100+. I trade on my own conviction!
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NBIS市值逼近OKLO，但前者明年ARR预计达40-60亿。
@_visionarius 当然！$NBIS 的市值几乎追平了 $OKLO。区别在于后者尚未产生收入，而 Nebius 明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)预计将达到 40-60 亿美元 lol。
英文原文
@_visionarius Of course! $NBIS is almost at $OKLO's marketcap. The difference is the latter is pre-revenue and Nebius is set to do $4-6B ARR next year lol.
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博主在NBIS大跌时加仓30万看涨LEAPS，视其为绝佳买入机会。
抛售 $NBIS 我个人在这个价位加购了30万美元的看涨LEAPS（长期股权预期证券），在我看来，10%的跌幅是巨大的买入机会。
英文原文
Fire sale $NBIS Personally added $300K in call leaps at this level, 10% drop is a huge buying opportunity imo. https://t.co/EYYmETApmP
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AI核心标的275美元为极佳买点
@spybear180 是的，约 275 美元。整个 AI 交易的核心，即使在 291 美元也是极佳的买入机会。
英文原文
@spybear180 Yeah ~$275. Center of the whole AI trade, even at $291 it’s an amazing buy
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降息在即，建议利用回调做多NBIS、TSM等高确信度AI及科技股。
距离降息还有12天（概率94.1%）。做市商(MMs)喜欢利用这样的时机清洗期权链(option chain)。 就我个人关注的杠杆交易(leveraged trades)关键价位而言： $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKLB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ 特别点名亚马逊，尽管市场反弹，其年初至今(YTD)仍下跌4.6%。 $AMZN - $200-$210（现在$211买入看涨期权(calls)极佳，让我想起$GOOGL在史诗级反弹前的$145。基本上现在看起来不错，但像Google一样，它跌破了人们预期的水平，所以甚至可能触及$200） 我对高确信度(high conviction)标的使用保证金+期权没问题，这只是我个人的风险承受能力，非财务建议(NFA)。 现在是做多高确信度标的的最佳时机。
英文原文
We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain. In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKlB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally. $AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200) I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA. These times are the best to go long on high conviction.