个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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对比NBIS与IREN，认为前者如传奇纲手，后者如小樱般最终显得无用。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 就像传说中的纲手(DD Tsunade)四处行走并最终成为火影。$IREN 则像某些主角如小樱(Sakura)，起初人们羡慕其力量，但随着时间推移，在与拥有全套配置的人相比时，人们终将意识到这种力量是无用的。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $NBIS is like DD Tsunade walking around becoming hokage like a legend. $IREN is some main character like Sakura with power that people admire at first but will come to realize is useless as time goes on when you compare it to someone with the full package.
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卖出HPC挖矿股转投NBIS，因后者利润率更高。
不，直到本周我都几乎持有了所有新云(Neocloud)股票。但在周五卖出了高性能计算(HPC)挖矿概念股，因为整合了更多新信息，例如 $ORCL 的建设失败、$NBIS 两天前发布的新白皮书、$CRWV 最近的收购案，以及对利润率计算的更多洞察。 但我会把资金转入 $NBIS。 人们对 HPC 挖矿商转型过于乐观，而 $ORCL 该板块利润率仅为 14%，且大家只盯着 Coreweave 看。 算力有助于扩大营收规模，但如果无法实现像 Nebius 那样的高利润率，这就没那么重要了。
英文原文
No, I held almost every Neocloud up until this week. But ended up selling HPC miners Friday after consolidating more information that came out eg. $ORCL buildout failing, $NBIS new whitepaper 2 days ago, $CRWV recent acquisitions, more insights into margin calculations. But I'll put that into $NBIS. People are too bullish on HPC miner pivots when $ORCL had 14% for that segment and they just look at Coreweave. Capacity helps scale revenue, but it wouldn't matter as much if they can't achieve high margins that Nebius will produce
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认为NBIS软件护城河深，非对称收益优于IREN等转型矿工。
我不同意，软件编排（Software Orchestration）可能是最大的护城河之一，这就是为什么在我看来，$NBIS 的非对称上行潜力明显优于 $IREN。但各有所好！ 我同意 $IREN 因部署的吉瓦（GW）规模略大，潜在上行空间稍高，但在利润率方面的执行风险要大得多。 关于 $IREN 未来的财报，我认为市场将痛苦地发现，Nebius 目前的编排能力和客户多样性构成了巨大的护城河。 $ORCL 作为最大的算力公司之一，据 TI 报道，其最近的建设亏损超过 1 亿美元。这主要归因于软件、GPU 编排和客户基础。内部文件显示其毛利率约为 14%（而 $NBIS 上季度为 71.2%）。 如果最大的超大规模云服务商都做不好，而人们仍指向 $CRWV 支持比特币矿工转型（尽管他们花费数十亿用于软件收购且转型耗时数年），那么你可能低估了这个巨大的护城河。 此外，软件利用率/编排的重要性比廉价电力高约 30-70 倍（我在另一条评论中算过账）。 部署的兆瓦/吉瓦规模确实给矿工带来更高的上行空间，但当 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称回报和产能时，去猜测这些比特币矿工能否转向高利润率是没有意义的，这是我的观点。
英文原文
I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own! I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins. When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat. $ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter). If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating. Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment). Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.
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NBIS凭借低运营成本和高毛利率建立护城河，资金将从Oracle等竞争对手回流。
我曾讨论过 $NBIS 在大幅降低运营支出(opex)和提升利润率方面的内部护城河。这转化为定价权，因为他们可以收取更低的价格+获得更高利润+更高的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)可用于收购和投资（例如 Clickhouse）。Oracle 正在持续进行建设，据 TI 称这导致他们损失了 1 亿多美元。随着执行层面在 6 个月后的表现与当前的投机形成对比，我们可能会看到转向(miners pivoting)的矿工（CRWV 花了数年时间构建其技术栈+数十亿美元用于收购）毛利率恶化，资金将回流至 Nebius。$NBIS -> 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的毛利率。
英文原文
I was talking about $NBIS internal moat on reducing opex a ton + increased margins. This translates to pricing power since they can charge less + make more + higher EBITDA they can use for acquisitions + investments (eg. clickhouse) Oracle is ongoing with their buildout and it turned out to lose them $100m+ as per TI. We'll likely see worse gross margins on miners pivoting (CRWV spent years on building out their stack + billions on acquisition) and money flow back into Nebius when it comes to execution in 6 months time vs. speculation currently. $NBIS -> highest gross margins out of any Neocloud.
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NBIS凭借利润率与全栈软件护城河，在Neocloud竞争中胜出。
公平地说，比特币矿工确实有很多炒作。我猜测所有的 Neocloud 都会一起上涨。 但最终能脱颖而出的是在 ER（执行率/执行能力）期间的表现。$NBIS 凭借利润率和高护城河最终位居榜首。 全栈+软件编排是一个被误解的护城河。连 $ORCL 都没能做好，他们在建设上损失了1亿美元。
英文原文
Fair, there's a lot of hype around Bitcoin miners. My guess is every Neocloud will go up together anyway. But what ends up on top is execution during ER. $NBIS ends up on top due to margins and defensibility. Full stack + software orchestration is a misunderstood moat. Even $ORCL couldn't get it right and they lost $100m on buildout.
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看好NBIS下跌后的世代性机会，认为其将跑赢IREN。
@YNWA_AB 是的，我通常很少发单一个股的内容，但我觉得 $NBIS 现在是一个世代性的机会，尤其是在下跌30%之后。我看到 $IREN 和其他公司的上涨潜力，但认为 Nebius 将大幅跑赢。
英文原文
@YNWA_AB Yeah I normally don't do much single-stock posts, but just feel like $NBIS is a generational opportunity right now, especially on the 30% drop. I see the upside for $IREN and others, but feel like Nebius will strong outperform.
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看好NBIS非对称上行潜力，决定集中持仓。
@genZinvest0r 确实，$NBIS 的投资者就是更优越。 说笑归说笑，这并非赢家通吃的局面，例如云计算（Azure、AWS、GCP 等）。 但，我一直对 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力更看好，并认为我应该言行一致，将资金集中配置于此。
英文原文
@genZinvest0r True, $NBIS investors are just superior. Jokes aside it's not winner takes all eg. cloud (Azure, AWS, GCP, etc). But, I've always been more bullish on $NBIS in terms of asymmetrical upside and thought I should just put my money where my mouth is + focus concentration on it.
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清仓其他Neocloud重仓$NBIS，认为其全栈优势及无债结构使其优于同行。
Neocloud持仓更新，10月24日周五。 发这条推文是为了向$IREN和其他Neocloud（新云）持有者传达一个信息： 👑 $NBIS更胜一筹。 我已清仓其他Neocloud股票：$CIFR获利250%+，$IREN、$BITF、$WYFI获利50-100%+，$WULF亏损5-10%。 目前我在$NBIS股票/LEAPS（长期期权）上的敞口超过200万美元，并持有少量$WLAC仓位。如果$NBIS股价维持在115美元，下周我会继续加仓Nebius。 我通常不发布卖出操作，但最近有很多烦人的Neocloud帖子声称他们的才是最好的。所以我发这条是为了传达$NBIS在不对称上行潜力方面明显更优，且已锁定Mag7（科技七巨头）订单。因此，分散投资其他Neocloud毫无意义。 NBIS通过全栈/GPU利用率及多元化用户，可能拥有最高的利润率护城河。其子公司+投资组合公司（AI数据库、机器人/配送等）正随其运营业务同步扩张。此外，没有侵蚀利润率的不良利息债务。 只需等待一年获得另一个超大规模云厂商合同，就有轻松获得300%收益和1000亿美元+市值的明确路径。去推测比特币挖矿转型的毛利率毫无意义（看看$ORCL仅因GPU利用率+建设->收入滞后就损失1亿美元+），即使某些公司可能有更大的容量。 所以只想说：Nebius是THE Neocloud。🫳🎙️
英文原文
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115. I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds. NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins. There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity. So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙️
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建议不要在市场波动时卖出通信芯片股票。
@justchilling40 不要在暴跌和反弹时卖出通信芯片(CC)。我这周没有卖出任何一只。
英文原文
@justchilling40 Don't sell CCs on crashes + recovery. I haven't sold any this week.
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博主首次关注LITE，计划周末研究。
@itsthesquonky 第一次听说 $LITE，看起来很有趣，我周末会研究一下。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky First time I’ve heard of $LITE, seems interesting I’ll take a look over the weekend
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更正股数并强调大规模禁售解禁带来的抛压风险
@DeepValueBagger 哎呀抱歉，是1.377亿股而不是1.57亿股。不过如果4倍流通盘(4x the float)变为可抛售压力，观点依然成立。如此大规模的禁售期(lockup)解禁从来都不是好事 https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Whoops sorry it’s 137.7M shares not 157M. Point still stands though if 4x the float becomes available as selling pressure. It’s never a good thing for that big of a lockup https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX
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警告 $CRCL 12 月巨额解禁风险，建议做空并做多 $COIN 对冲。
对 $CRCL 发出重大警告，尤其是临近 12 月 2 日。你交易的是一个低流通盘(low float)股票。 Circle 在 IPO 中以 31 美元的价格售出了 3400 万股 A 类股。目前 A 类股总股本为 202,550,578 股。 所有流通 A 类股中的 77.6%（1.57 亿/2.0255 亿）以及约 463% 的 IPO 流通盘将在 12 月解禁(unlocked)。 如果非要操作，我建议在事件发生前做空 $CRCL 并做多 $COIN 作为对冲(hedge)。
英文原文
Huge warning on $CRCL, especially going into December 2nd. You're trading on a low float. Circle sold 34M Class A shares in the IPO at $31. There's 202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding. 77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) and ~463% of the 34M IPO float will be unlocked in December. If anything I'd go short + long COIN as hedge during before the event.
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分析Nebius收入滞后及估值，预测1年内市值达1000亿美元。
是的，完全确认收入可能存在约12-16个月的滞后，但来自 $MSFT 交易的季度收入很可能在2026年Q4和2027年Q1实现。如果 Nebius 完全停止增长，该季度收入同比将增长1000%+至12.25亿美元/季度（约49亿美元 ARR）。当然，这是一家超大规模扩展公司，所以我预计另一个 Mag7 交易加上其他企业/SMB客户会推高这一数字（这就是我们如何在1年内达到1000亿美元市值的原因）。此外，我使用了6-8倍的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入）和15-25倍的 EV/EBITDA（企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润），这是保守的，而非10-15倍的 P/S（市销率）。这是核心业务（例如，330亿美元核心业务中位数 + 从分部加总（现金、GPU、Clickhouse等资产）折价40%），如果没有任何数字增长，今天的中位数约为390亿美元。
英文原文
Yep, there's probably ~12-16 month-ish revenue lag for full recognition but quarterly revenue with $MSFT deal would likely be realized Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. With that Q revenue would increase over 1000%+ Y/Y to $1.225B/quarter (~$4.9B ARR) if Nebius stopped growing completely. But of course this is a hyper-scaling company, so I'd expect another Mag7 deal + other enterprise/SMB clients to bring that number up (which is how we get to $100B MC from here in 1 year time) Also, I used EV/Revenue of 6–8× and EV/EBITDA of 15–25, which is conservative not P/S multiple of 10-15. This was the core business (eg. $33B core business midpoint + 40% discounted from sum of parts (cash, GPUs, assets like clickhouse), which would put it to ~$39B today midpoint if there's zero growth in any number.
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解析机构利用期权对冲放大波动并低位吸筹，散户恐慌后股价反弹。
DW，Reddit 总是被关注。但我不认为“市场操纵”是合适的措辞。我的猜测是：板块做空时机与 The Information 的负面报道相吻合 -> 机构利用做市商(MM)对手方卖出短期看涨和看跌期权带来的机械对冲，来放大下行风险（加上上周的磁吸效应）。 随后几个红色交易日后 -> 散户恐慌性抛售至 $94 -> 机构在不推动价格的情况下吸纳卖盘。 随着更多数据浮现，事实证明机构在底部积累的判断相当准确。看来弱手已被洗出，现在我们将走高，但 FinX 社区可能从这次回调中赚了不少钱。
英文原文
DW, Reddit is always regarded. But I don't think market manipulation is a good way to word it. My guess was sector short timed with The Information hit piece -> instituions taking advantage of mechanical hedging from MMs from counterparty selling of shortdated calls + puts to exaggerate downside (+ pinning from last week) Then few red days after -> retail panic selling to $94 -> institutions soaking up sales without moving prices. And with more data surfacing, turned out to be pretty accurate with institutional accumulation at bottom. Weak hands got shaken off I guess and now we go higher, but FinX community probably made a lot of money off the dip.
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机构借恐慌在暗池增持 $NBIS，基本面支撑其 390 亿估值。
本周散户恐慌导致 $NBIS 暴跌至 94 美元。 不幸的是，许多散户不在本社区内，仅因股价下跌（混合做市商机械对冲）便在恐惧中抛售。 过去两天，Nebius 股价反弹超 17%。 这就是为什么信念 + 基本面/知识 > 股价。 下跌期间，机构通过暗池(dark pools)等渠道悄悄入场增持。 _ 基本面上，Nebius 被严重低估。我对 $NBIS 的基础估值约为 390 亿美元，若再获一家超大规模云厂商合作，一年内有望达 1000 亿美元。 Nebius 为微软 Azure 等未来超大规模基础设施提供算力。机构深知这一点，并将不惜一切代价增持这家全球算力核心公司的股份。 如果散户不能从基本面建立信念，也不理解机构如何利用暗池、期权流向等在不扰动价格的情况下积累筹码，他们就会纯粹因恐惧而非实质性变化而投降。 正如我在今日 Seeking Alpha 文章《Nebius 回调，聪明钱的入场点》中指出： “WhaleStream 报告显示约 1 亿美元净流入集中在 103.90 美元附近，显示新的机构兴趣。 Fintel 数据（源自 Nasdaq、FINRA 和 Capital IQ）证实，场外做空比率接近 19%，强化了机构通过暗池大量买入 Nebius 的观点。 实际上，这支持了大部分 Nebius 买入是通过暗池悄悄进行的观点，这与观察到的看涨期权积累相一致。” 积累是战略性的，但隐藏在明处。不要被震仓出局。
英文原文
This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94. Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone. In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%. This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price. During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods. _ Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership. Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute. If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes. As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point": "WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options." Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.
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Nebius机构正借散户恐慌在暗池吸筹，基本面强劲，属买入良机。
@MB_Hogan 哈哈，关于暗池流入的第1点，正是我在底部时大声疾呼的内容。不幸的是，许多散户被洗出局了，不过这篇总结帖很棒！
英文原文
@MB_Hogan lol point #1 with dark pool inflows what I was screaming at the bottom Unfortunately a lot of retail got wiped out, great summary post though! https://t.co/tC4HCQ9B3a
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分析CIFR稀释影响，建议NBIS短线获利但长线持有。
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR 在约 16 美元时经历了 16% 的稀释，现在又回到了 19 美元，如果触及可转换票据（Convertible Note）编号，情况并非末日般糟糕。对于短期交易而言，在 140 美元左右获利了结 $NBIS 这类股票是明智之举，但我坚持其 1000 亿美元市值（Market Cap）的目标，因此我个人至少会持有 1 年。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR hit 16% dilution at $16 or so and now it's back at $19, it's not doom and gloom if it hits convertible note number. For short term trading, it's a smart to take profits on stuff like $NBIS at $140, but I stand by $100B MC so I'm personally holding 1 year min.
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博主买入NBIS看涨期权，以真金白银验证其投资信念。
@accounting_ds 是的，人们可以称之为疯狂，但我没看到他们在 $NBIS 上采取任何头寸。我在过去两周购买了价值 50 多万美元的看涨期权，所以我用真金白银为我的观点背书。我只是记录下我的思维过程，即我是如何建立这种信念的。
英文原文
@accounting_ds Yeah, people can call it crazy but I don't see them taking any positions on $NBIS. I bought $500k+ calls in the last two weeks so I put my money where my mouth is. I'm just writing down my train of thoughts in terms of how I developed my conviction.
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Nebius凭借全栈软件及运营效率，在利润率上优于纯容量型AI云厂商。
就纯上行潜力而言，$IREN 仅因纯粹的吉瓦(GW)容量而颇具前景。然而，$NBIS 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)。 随着最近发布的 Nebius 白皮书，他们公布了一些关于 GPU 利用率等数据。其全栈软件(full stack software)加上涵盖初创企业和中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化其运营支出(opex)，这是人们对其如何最大化 GPU 利润率的误解性护城河(misunderstood moat)。 人们试图将矿工(miners)框架化为潜在的转型者，但如果我们看看 $ORCL 的建设情况，他们在利润率转化上挣扎（建设后的 GPU 利用率等）。拥有其他软件层会压缩利润率，$CRWV 对此深有体会，这也是他们近期花费数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，原始容量并不总能转化为良好的利润率。全栈能力+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户，使 Nebius 具有明显优势。
英文原文
So in terms of raw upside, $IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity. However, $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return out of any Neocloud. With the recent Nebius whitepaper, they published a bit about GPU utilization, etc. Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is a misunderstood moat in terms of how they maximize margins from GPUs. People try to frame miners as potential pivots but if we look at $ORCL builtout, they were struggling with margins that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers like compresses margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins. So being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs gives Nebius a clear edge.
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论证NBIS估值偏低，指出即使零增长其市值仍有大幅上涨空间。
1. 不，我说的是 $NBIS 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡可能存在一些收入滞后，但合同将在 2026 年底至 2027 年期间兑现，且其现有数据加上微软处于 $49 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）的基准情形，我估计即使没有增长，其市值（MC）也比当前高出 62.5%。 我使用零增长作为例子，仅仅是为了展示该业务本身在结构上被低估的程度。 2. 这是一个关于如何达到 1000 亿市值的高层概述，而非全面分析。我在括号中提到未深入探讨 GPU 折旧和电力容量问题。但总体而言，即使是旧款 GPU 也能保持价值并继续提供收益。
英文原文
1. No i said there’s likely some revenue lag on $NBIS $MSFT ramp up but the contract will play out by late 2026 and into 2027 and their existing numbers + MSFT is at the base case $4.9B ARR, which id estimate is +62.5% from here MC wise if there were no growth. I use 0 growth as an example just to show how structurally undervalued the business is as is. 2. This was a high level overview on how we get to $100B MC not a full blown analysis. I mentioned in brackets I didn’t go into GPU depreciation and power capacity. But generally with GPUs even older models keep their value and still deliver equity.
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NBIS核心业务估值扎实，若获新云厂商合同，市值有望年内破千亿。
你说得对，分部估值之和(Sum of Parts)确实会更高。 撇开子公司不谈，其核心运营业务在零增长的基础情景下，未来两年年化经常性收入(ARR)为50亿美元，毛利率为60-70%。 然而它仍在增长，若能再签下一家超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的合同，$NBIS 一年内市值轻松突破1000亿美元。
英文原文
You’re right, sum of parts would be worth more. Subsidaries aside, the main operational business which at the base case no growth for the next two years is 5B ARR, 60-70% gross margins. However it’s still growing and with one more hyperscaler contract, NBIS can easily be $100b+ in a year
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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建议忽略WLAC盘前盘后波动，因其价差过宽。
@capybara_830 $WLAC 的买卖价差非常宽。我会直接忽略盘前或盘后的任何交易活动。
英文原文
@capybara_830 $WLAC has very wide spreads. I’d just ignore any after hours or pre market activity
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市场高波成长股普跌，深度超卖股如NBIS现买入良机。
是的，现在对许多投资者来说确实是一段艰难时期，$HOOD 跌 7%，$RKLB 跌 10%，$TE 跌 13%，$CIFR 跌 15%，许多量子计算概念股单日下跌 20%。这对大多数人来说压力很大。 任何高贝塔值(高波动性)/成长型股票都遭到重创。 但积极的一面是，如果像 $NBIS 这样已经深度超卖且进一步被抛售的股票，就会转化为绝佳的买入机会。希望这对你们有利，只是需要一点耐心！
英文原文
Yeah it's definitely rough times right now for a lot of investors, $HOOD down 7%, $RKLB down 10%, $TE down 13%, $CIFR down 15%, many quantum names down 20% all in a single day. Very stressful for most people. Anything high beta/growth got nuked together. But the positive thing is, if it's already deeply oversold + got sold off even more like $NBIS, then it turns into a great buying opportunity. I hope it plays out well for you, just requires a bit of patience!
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解析$NBIS暴跌机制：做市商对冲加剧波动，机构借机暗池吸筹。
对于 $NBIS，散户很可能基于未平仓合约大量购买了云服务商(CSP)相关的短期看涨期权。 当做市商(MM)作为交易对手方时，会加剧任何价格波动。在此案例中，它放大了下行走势，大型对冲基金很可能在较高价位（可能配合针对 $ORCL 及整个板块的内幕负面报道）初期做空。 做市商的机械式对冲导致当 Nebius 股价在 135-140 美元区间时价格急剧下跌。 散户在看到几天红盘（下跌）后卖出股票只是自然结果。但散户卖出是愚蠢的，因为基本面将压倒任何机械对冲资金流。 我在另一篇帖子中提到，散户恐慌性抛售影响的是最后成交价。机构能够通过暗池和大宗交易在不影响公开账本的情况下进行更多积累。
英文原文
With $NBIS, retail likely did a lot of CSP + short dated calls from open interest. When MMs act as the counterpart, it exacerbates any movement. In this case, it amplified downward movement, with large hedge fund likely shorting initially at higher prices (probably timed with The Insider hit piece like with $ORCL and the whole sector short). There's mechanical hedging from MMs which causes sharply price to drop when Nebius was around $135-$140. Retail selling their shares after seeing few days of red is just a natural consequence. But it's stupid for retail to sell fundamentals will outweigh any mechanical hedging flows. I mentioned in my other post that retail panic selling affects price last traded. Institutions are able to accumulate more without affecting open books through dark pools and block trades.
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NBIS估值极低且基本面强劲，下跌是机构吸筹良机。
我之前说过，$NBIS 240亿美元的市值简直荒谬可笑。它在为 $MSFT Azure 和其他超大规模云服务商提供支持的同时，季度营收增长超1000%，一年内 ARR（年度经常性收入）达到40-60亿美元以上。此外，它拥有70%以上的毛利率，50多亿美元现金，以及数十亿投资于 Anthropic、Meta 等超高速增长投资组合公司的资产。我们还有历史上最大规模的数据中心建设（出于国家安全原因）、11/12月的季节性因素，以及今年仅剩的两次降息作为顺风。但正是在这种散户被清洗或“纸手”只看价格不看基本面的时候，机构才会进行积累。这就是为什么在没有实质性利空的情况下下跌7%感觉像是一份礼物，尽管这对短期数据有打击。
英文原文
I said this earlier but 24B market cap for $NBIS... which is scaling quarterly revenue 1000%+ to 4-6B+ ARR in just 1 year by powering $MSFT azure and other hyperscalers. While doing 70%+ gross margins, having $5B+ in cash, and billions in assets that go up over time in hyper-growth portfolio companies that power Anthropic, Meta, and other is laughable. We also have the largest data center buildout in history for national security reasons, Nov/Dec seasonality, and 2 more rate cuts this year alone as tailwind. But it's times like these where retail gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how institutions accumulate. That's why the 7% drop off no material changes feels like a gift, even though it's a short term hit to the numbers.
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NBIS遭错杀，基本面强劲，机构持仓将借机上升。
看起来目前高贝塔值(high-beta)股票也在全面抛售，从 $HOOD、$RKLB 到量子计算板块皆是如此。$NBIS 在其他股票之前就开始下跌，因此在原有 23%+ 跌幅的基础上再跌 7%，简直是雪上加霜。 一家正在将年化经常性收入(ARR)从数百美元扩展至 40-60 亿美元、毛利率约 60-75%、持有 50 亿美元以上现金、拥有投资组合公司数十亿所有权，且处于美国万亿美元数据中心建设浪潮中的公司，市值却只有 240 亿美元……这简直令人发笑。 但遗憾的是，正是在这样的时刻，散户被清洗或只看价格不看基本面的“纸手”投资者离场，从而使得机构持股比例随时间上升。我不惊讶于看到这个数字大幅上升。
英文原文
Looks like there's also a selloff across all high-beta stocks right now too from $HOOD, $RKLB, to quantum. $NBIS sold off before the others so the 7% drop today on top of the existing 23%+ drop is icing on the cake. 24B marketcap... for a company scaling hundreds of %+ to $4-6B ARR on ~60-75% gross margins, $5B+ in cash, ownership in the billions for portfolio companies, amidst the US trillion dollar data center buildout is laughable. But it's times like these where retail sadly gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how the ownership % goes up over time. Wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up a lot.
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持有NBIS看涨期权，看好降息与财报带来的反弹机会。
我继续持有1月/3月到期的看涨期权。如果一只股票在没有消息的情况下能在一周内下跌30%，那么像$NBIS这样高贝塔值的股票也可能在短时间内反弹43%。 我对两次降息、季节性因素以及财报依然保持信心。过去一个月没有重大新闻（只有利好消息），但让我们看看接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
I'm holding my Jan/Mar calls. If a stock can do down 30% in a week off no news, it can also go back up 43% in a short time with high beta stocks like $NBIS. I'm still confident with 2x rate cut, seasonality, and earnings. There's been no material news (only positive ones in the past month), but we'll see what happens.
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看好NBIS并加仓，认为TE若达成目标市值潜力巨大。
我对 $NBIS 持有最高的确信度，这也是为什么我很乐意尽可能大幅地进行成本平均（cost average leaps）。 我对其他能源板块标的没有同样的看法，不过 $TE 可能是其中最高的，因为如果它能实现管理层 2027 年 EBITDA 目标的一半，按 8 倍 EBITDA 估值倍数计算，其市值将从当前的 7 亿美元升至 52 亿美元。
英文原文
I have the highest conviction in $NBIS, which is why I'm happy to cost average leaps as much as possible. I don't have the same sentiment as other energy plays, $TE is probably highest though because if it delivers 1/2 of management EBITDA 2027 target, 8× EBITDA multiple would be 5.2B MC from the current $700m MC.
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博主逆势加仓$NBIS LEAPS，坚信基本面强劲，视暴跌为机构吸筹良机。
以$98.8的价格加仓了价值$200k的$NBIS LEAPS（长期股权预期权），行权价为2026年12月的$105。 Nebius在一周内从$140跌至$97，跌幅超30%，这可能会让你自我怀疑，但正是在这样的时刻，信念（Conviction）最为重要。 如果你理解基本面和行业，这就是天赐良机。
英文原文
Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike. Nebius dropping 30%+ in a week from $140 to $97 might make you second-guess yourself, but it’s times like these where conviction matters most. If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift. https://t.co/Yv0s3t1cuy