个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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NBIS财报数据大幅超预期却暴跌26%，令人费解。
我想知道市场在 $NBIS 上到底抽了什么。 财报发布情况如下： 1. 最乐观的分析师预测年度经常性收入(ARR)为 40 亿美元。 2. 实际表现超出该数字 100%，预计达到 80 亿美元。 3. 签约产能指引超出 150% 以上，达到 2.5 GW。 4. 宣布与 $META 达成意外的 30 亿美元合同。 5. 股价暴跌 26%。
英文原文
I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS. Goes into earnings: 1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR 2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected 3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW 4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META 5. Drops 26%
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管理层若确认Lake站点泳池派对，CIFR将获支持。
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage 如果管理层确认不排除在 Lake 站点举办泳池派对，$CIFR 将获得大量支持（包括我在内）。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage There will be a lot of support behind $CIFR (myself included) if we get a confirmation from the executive team that they're not ruling out a pool party from the Lake site.
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11月24日MSCI指数大幅流入$NBIS，虽金额未定但利好显著。
@soulbiri1 显然，11月24日 MSCI 指数对 $NBIS 的流入量在数千万美元至十亿美元区间。虽然无法确定确切数字，但这对资金流入帮助很大。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Apparently it's few hundred million inflow to low billion range for the MSCI inflow into $NBIS on Nov 24th. Can't really determine the exact number, but it helps with inflow a lot.
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NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.
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作者看好NBIS反弹，建议买入3-5月看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 鉴于每个人都值得被爱，我也会去接 $NBIS 这把下落的飞刀（Omoroi）。3月至5月的看涨期权更安全，但我预计 Weebius 会恢复！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
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因NBIS股价下跌，计划买入3股。
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS 又跌了几个百分点，也许是时候买入 3 股了。
英文原文
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS がさらに数パーセント下落したので、そろそろ 3 株買う頃かもしれない
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TSSI暴跌后若仍依附DELL供应链，或是买入良机。
哇，太恶心了——$TSSI 暴跌 -42.69%，抱歉如果你持有该股。这很可能是数据中心板块抛售的一部分，且看来他们因运营失误导致业绩不及预期。 我有一段时间没关注它了，但如果他们仍在搭 $DELL 的便车，那么这可能是一个不错的买入机会。未来营收不少，包括 2026 年 Q1-Q2 来自 $SMCI 的订单。SMCI 也提到了积压订单的延迟。此外，随着数据中心建设，$DELL 也有大量积压订单。 市场也重挫了 $CRWV，原因是建设短期延迟。
英文原文
Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders. I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout. Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.
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关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
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AI股短期暴跌，但基本面改善令长期看涨。
@DivesTech “迷你恐慌”。更像是全线个股的崩盘，例如 $IREN 暴跌 38%，$ALAB 本周重挫 20.30%。但正如你所说，由于基本面改善，我对长期走势依然看涨。https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
英文原文
@DivesTech "Mini Panic". More like crash in names across the board with stocks like $IREN crashing 38% to $ALAB tanking 20.30% this week. But as you said I'm bullish too longer term due to improving fundamentals. https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
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机构逢低吸纳NBIS，散户因恐慌抛售。
@babyfolio 实际上，使用其他一些数据集，这一比例是 46.3%。 是的，机构正在从 $NBIS 的散户手中逢低吸纳。不过并非所有人都关注 X 平台，因此在那之外，可能有很多不了解其基本面和远期增长的群体正在恐慌性抛售。
英文原文
@babyfolio Oh it’s actually 46.3% with some other datasets. Yeah institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there’s probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don’t understand their fundamentals and forward growth https://t.co/2sRhYsKZ5Q
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NBIS因市场过度反应大跌，机构报告对其商业模式构成压力测试。
确实，这会影响市场情绪，甚至导致过度反应，正如我们目前在 $NBIS 身上看到的（例如：年化经常性收入(ARR)超预期200%+，与 $META 的意外交易，却下跌20%+）。但像摩根大通(JPM)或伯瑞(Burry)这类机构报告，确实在根本上对商业模式进行了压力测试，例如更高的借贷成本和更严格的贷款条件。
英文原文
Well it does impact market sentiment to the point of overreaction, which we're seeing with $NBIS right now. (eg. beats ARR estimates by 200%+, surprise $META deal, down 20%+) But those types of institutional reports from JPM or Burry does fundamentally stress test business models a bit eg. higher borrowing costs and stricter loans.
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AI板块遭无差别抛售，基本面改善的个股如NBIS现买入机会。
这是多种因素的混合影响： - 对高贝塔值(High-Beta) + AI 股票的无差别抛售 - 政府停摆延长 - 12 月降息概率 - 因折旧会计处理增加的做空头寸 一些像 $NBIS 这样的股票尽管创下历史新高盈利且基本面积极，仍受板块抛售影响。 另一些像 $CRWV 的股票因延迟导致远期盈利不及预期，其短期表现更易于理解。 总体而言，来自像 $CIFR（与 AWS 合作）和 $WULF（与 Anthropic 合作，今日宣布 500 亿美元建设计划）等 Neoclouds 公司的财报(ER)和更新非常积极。 如果像 NEbius 这样的股票在基本面改善的情况下被抛售，那就是买入机会。
英文原文
It's a mix of: - indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks - government shutdown extensions - rate cut December odds - increased shorts from depreciation accounting Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals. Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays. Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today. If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.
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成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
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类比HOOD反弹，认为NBIS下跌源于恐慌，基本面仍支撑市值。
我刚刚想起 $HOOD 从 $65 跌至 $28，随后上演了一波撕裂面孔的反弹至 $150 的情景。当市场充满恐惧时，股价有时会脱离基本面。$NBIS 因“AI 泡沫”担忧而在更广泛的抛售中受累，正是如此。然而，前瞻性增长支撑了任何市值预测，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
I just got reminded of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a face ripping rally to $150. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets. This is happening with $NBIS when it gets caught in broader selloffs because of “AI bubble” fears. Yet the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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建议用杠杆博取NBIS反弹，认为其230亿市值严重低估。
@Wutarded 如果我想在这样规模的组合中承担更多风险，我会使用保证金或LEAPS（长期股权预期权）来增加杠杆。 我很确定$90-93是底部，对于$NBIS日益增长的基本面来说，230亿美元的市场规模简直是有罪（被严重低估）。
英文原文
@Wutarded I’d do margin/leaps here for more leverage if I wanted to take on more risk with that portfolio size. Pretty sure $90-93 is bottom, $23B market cap for the growing fundamentals of $NBIS is just criminal at this point.
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重申 $NBIS 核心业务与高增长逻辑，呼吁投资者在市场回调中保持信念。
如果在这次市场回调中你有一丝怀疑。 请记住这一点： $NBIS 是一家市值 240 亿美元的公司，远期年度经常性收入 (ARR) 为 80 亿美元，目标 EBITDA 利润率 30%。 Nebius 的核心业务为从 $MSFT 到 $META 的 Mag7 超大规模云服务商、从 Shopify 到 Cursor 再到埃森哲的企业，以及政府人工智能基础设施提供动力。 他们拥有 100 亿美元以上的净资产价值 (NAV)，其超增长投资组合公司赋能了 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 当然，Nebius 同比增长 700%+，这在从季度收入 1.25 亿美元到仅 1 年内达到 20 亿美元+的过程中几乎闻所未闻。 这家公司处于整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心，股价为 $93，有望成为下一家市值 1000 亿美元+的公司。 不要让广泛的抛售影响你的信念。
英文原文
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure. They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year. This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next $100B+ company. Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.
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反驳死扛泡沫论，强调$NBIS基本面强劲且估值合理。
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG 在美联储收紧货币时持有市值200亿美元但零收入的量子计算公司，这才是“死扛泡沫破裂”(Bag holding a bubble burst)。 而不是持有像 $NBIS 这样年营收增长700%+、年经常性收入(ARR)达80亿美元、EBITDA利润率20-30%、持有约60亿美元以上净资产(NAV)资产（这些资产来自为Meta和Anthropic提供动力的公司）、市值240亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG Bag holding a bubble burst is when you hold $20B mc 0 revenue quantum companies under Fed tightening. Not a company ( $NBIS ) growing 700%+ Y/Y doing $8 Billion ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, holding ~$6B+ in NAV assets from companies powering Meta and Antrophic, valued at $24B
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NBIS业绩超预期且基本面与股价脱节，作者今日重仓买入并看好其超越CRWV。
$NBIS 超出预期，我没看到任何分析师模型预测 $70-90 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入），这简直是令人咋舌的增长（同比增长 700%+）。 目前市场出现无差别抛售，但： - 政府停摆可能今天结束 - $NBIS 将于 11 月 24 日因纳入指数带来资金流入 - 12 月圣诞行情 - 12 月前有 70% 的概率降息 供参考：最看多的分析师预计 ARR 约为 30 亿，而 Nebius 指引是该数字的 2.5 倍。目前基本面与股价脱节，我个人今天已重仓买入。 我认为 Nebius 将在下一个增长/复苏周期中超越 $CRWV。
英文原文
$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y). Indiscriminate selloff right now but: - Gov shutdown likely ending today - $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov - Santa rally Dec -70% rate cut into Dec FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today. I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.
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Northland上调目标价，NBIS业绩超预期，作者逢低加仓。
Northland 刚刚将其目标价(PT)上调至 $211（跑赢大盘），但这 $6 的涨幅可能只是随机波动。正如你所说，我们两人都在建模约 $50-70 亿 ARR，而 $NBIS 刚刚凭借强劲的财报表现，将指引提升至 $70-90 亿。不幸的是，从 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的板块性抛售正在发生，但基本面与股价已脱节，本周跌幅达 20%。我利用这次机会在 $96 加仓。一家年增长率超过 700% 的企业显然定价错误，主要受宏观恐慌和板块回调影响。
英文原文
Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump. As you mentioned, we both were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure. Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week. I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.
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基于Nebius最新财报数据，机械重算其估值模型，得出355美元新目标价。
Northland 早在9月就基于2026财年20-40亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)的假设，给出了$NBIS 205美元的目标价。 沿用其相同的经济模型，我们现在得出的1年目标价为： 约355.00美元/股（+248.04%） 这是基于Nebius财报中70-90亿美元ARR预测得出的。 以下是更新后的指标： Northland Capital Markets 2025年9月24日的报告，其2026财年情景假设： ARR：上调至20-40亿美元 营收：23亿美元 调整后EBITDA：9.07亿美元 核心AIaaS业务的EV/销售倍数：23.8倍 流通股：约2.9亿股 每股股权价值：205美元目标价 Nebius新基本面（2025年Q3发布）： 2026财年ARR ≈ 80亿美元（中位数），营收 ≈ 46亿美元，以及按比例缩放的EBITDA（约18亿美元）。 保持其EV/销售倍数 ≈ 23.8倍，新核心企业价值 ≈ 46亿美元 × 23.8 = 1090亿美元。加上子公司（Northland分部估值法合计约70亿美元）和净现金（约7亿美元）-> 总股权 ≈ 1170亿美元 → 约355美元目标价 这是一种机械外推，假设其分析中的估值倍数不变，并非分析师可能因稀释/执行风险等而调整的目标价。 分析师从20亿美元估计到管理层最新指引中位数80亿美元的2-3倍ARR增长，机械性地推高了估值 更新后的目标价是基于重新运行的DCF模型得出的。
英文原文
Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September. From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT: ~$355.00/share (+248.04%) off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected Here's the updated metrics: Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed: ARR: raised from $2-4B Revenue: $2.3B Adjusted EBITDA: $907M EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business. Shares outstanding: ~290 M Equity value per share: $205PT New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release): CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B). Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc. 2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.
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NBIS获微软Meta验证，需求巨大或超预期
@Dylanwith86 是的，这仅仅意味着当他们签订更多合同时，他们将增加年度经常性收入(ARR)，甚至可能超出其 $70-90 亿 ARR 的预测。两个月前，仅靠 $MSFT 就达到了约 $50 亿。市场对 $NBIS 全栈基础设施的需求巨大，$MSFT 和 $META 已经证明了这一点。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection. 2 months ago it was ~$5B with just $MSFT. Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it.
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NBIS产能售罄且订单充足，市场低估其破纪录增长。
@ramiN4real 他们的产能已经售罄... 仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元。 $NBIS 将签订更多合同，所以这不是问题。 我仍然认为人们没有理解从季度营收1亿美元在一年内增长到20亿美元以上这种破纪录的增长意味着什么。
英文原文
@ramiN4real They sold out of capacity... for $7-9B ARR for next year alone. $NBIS will contract more so not a problem. I still don't think people understand how record breaking growing from $100m quarterly revenue to $2B+ in 1 year is.
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NBIS凭借能耗比优势大幅领先IREN。
@cmachdop $NBIS 凭借这一能耗比(Energy Ratio)将 $IREN 远远甩在身后。
英文原文
@cmachdop $NBIS blows $IREN out of the water with this ER
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Nebius收入指引上调，有望通过新交易明年达120亿ARR。
@StableBread 我原本希望确认50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，现在指引已上调至70-90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 这甚至还没考虑到$NBIS可能进一步扩大规模，超出该前瞻性收入指引，并通过与新超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)达成交易+获取更多算力容量，明年实现120亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 Nebius太疯狂了。
英文原文
@StableBread I was hoping for $5B ARR confirmation, now it’s $7-9B ARR guided. And that’s not even considering that $NBIS could still scale up more and beat that forward revenue guidance and do $12B ARR next year with a new hyperscaler deal + acquiring more capacity. Nebius is crazy.
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NBIS市值将超千亿美元，当前瓶颈相比预期增长微不足道。
@ravi_nareddy 是的，看看被引用的帖子。即使考虑到这一点，与预期的增长相比，它依然微乎其微。 $NBIS 是一家正在崛起、市值将超 1000 亿美元的公司，这只是时间问题。
英文原文
@ravi_nareddy Yeah look at the quoted post. Even factoring that in, it's tiny compared to projected growth. $NBIS is a $100B+ company in the making, it's just a matter of time.
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计划继续加仓NBIS看涨LEAPS，认为当前价位严重低估。
@rioferdy838 如果开盘时股价维持在 $116 左右，我会继续加仓 $NBIS 的看涨长期期权（LEAPS）。鉴于财报中给出的新指引，当前价位被严重低估。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 I'm adding more $NBIS call leaps if price stays around $116 when the market opens. Ridiculously undervalued at these levels given new guidance from earnings report.