个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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询问关于CVAT股票的深度投资逻辑。
@G77Harris 你对 $CVAT 是否有更深入的投资论点(Thesis)？非常希望能了解更多。
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@G77Harris Did you have a deeper thesis on $CVAT, would love to find out more
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预期META明日回调洗盘，计划周五加仓看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 这些 $META 的看涨期权(call options) 可能会大赚！ 我有点预期它明天会再次下跌以洗盘(shake out)，所以我打算在周五买入第二组看涨期权。
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@soulbiri1 These $META calls are probably going to print! I’m kinda expecting it to drop again tomorrow to shake people out so I was going to buy a second set of calls on Friday.
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询问博主对DNN股票的投资观点。
@finefornovv 我对后两者很熟悉，但你对 $DNN 的投资逻辑是什么？
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@finefornovv I’m familiar on the latter two but what’s your pitch on $DNN?
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计划研究WKEY的NAV与市值错配机会。
@dotsamaenjoyer 那我稍后去研究一下 $WKEY，看看净资产价值(NAV)/市值(MC)错配方面是否有异常，如果有机会我会发帖分享。感谢分享。
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@dotsamaenjoyer I’ll look into $WKEY later then to see if there’s anything up with NAV/MC mispricing and I’ll post if there’s an opportunity. Thanks for sharing
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质疑$WKEY NAV远高于市值的合理性，怀疑存在隐藏风险。
@dotsamaenjoyer 如果正如你所说，$WKEY 的净资产价值(NAV)远高于市值，那肯定有什么不对劲的地方。还有什么遗漏的信息好得不像真的吗？
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@dotsamaenjoyer There’s gotta be something off, their NAV is way above market cap for $WKEY if what you’re mentioning is true. Is there anything else missing that’s too good to be true?
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Meta核心盈利强劲，AI支出争议属叙事，作者认为可轻松买入。
@DiscountedBTC 对于 $META，其核心盈利表现卓越，若忽略一次性税收影响，其每股收益(EPS)大幅超预期。这仅仅是关于人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)是陷入无底洞还是会产生投资回报率(ROI)的争论，但这只是市场叙事。对我来说，这是轻松买入的机会。
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@DiscountedBTC For $META their core earnings were stellar and if you ignore the one time tax they strongly beat EPS. It’s just an argument of whether AI capex is going into a black hole or will have ROI but that’s just narratives. Easy buy for me
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因IV低且看好复苏，博主倾向用看涨期权杠杆做多META。
@blu400_ 隐含波动率(IV)极低。我也可以买入数百万股，但使用看涨期权(Calls)可以用少量资本获得极高的杠杆。我也对复苏充满信心，这就是为什么我接受在 $META 上使用杠杆。
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@blu400_ IV is extremely low. I could buy millions in shares too but with calls, it’s really high leverage for low capital. I’m also confident on recovery which is why I’m fine with leverage on $META
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博主回应指出，将重新核实 $MQ 的最新情况。
@BarnieTaintpipe 好的，我会再仔细看看，谢谢指出。我之前关于 $MQ 的记忆可能有些偏差，正如你提到的，应该有更近况的更新。
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@BarnieTaintpipe All right I’ll take another look thanks for pointing that out. I was just going off memory for $MQ, but there were probably more recent updates as you mentioned
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看好META财报，认为股价下跌系税务影响，预计短期反弹。
@soulbiri1 是的，很好的买入机会，财报表现优异，股价下跌看起来是因为一次性税务影响。 我不喜欢其资本支出(capex)的投入，但这目前只是叙事层面的问题，因为人们都在为其他“七巨头(mag7)”的资本支出欢呼。 $META 可能在一两周内就会恢复。
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@soulbiri1 Yeah great buy, stellar earnings, looks off due to one-time tax. Don’t like capex spend but it’s just narrative at this point since people are cheering on other mag7 capex spend. $META will probably recover in a week or two
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不看好MQ因依赖Square，更看好DAVE。
@BarnieTaintpipe 我早就知道这两家公司了。凭直觉，我不看好 $MQ，因为如果 Cash App 是其客户，它就对 Square 存在单一依赖。此外，Square 未来也可以推出自己的卡片业务。 相比之下，我更喜欢 $DAVE。
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@BarnieTaintpipe I’m aware of them both already. Off the top of my head $MQ not a fan because singular dependency on Square if that was the customer for Cash App. Also they can launch their own card offerings in the future. $DAVE I liked a lot more
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对WLAC有信心，但指出SPAC IPO等待期长且正式申报时往往已晚。
@Edu4rdo26 我对 $WLAC 相当有信心，我只是说等待期很长，很多人没有耐心等待 SPAC IPO 期间。但一旦你等到正式申报，很多时候已经太晚了。
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@Edu4rdo26 Oh I’m pretty confident on $WLAC, I just said there’s a huge waiting period and lot of people don’t have patience to wait for the SPAC IPO period. But once you wait for the actual filing a lot of times it’s pretty late
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Meta 或短期回调，建议利用高流动性分批建仓。
@rioferdy838 $META 可能会经历为期两天的抛售，日内低点下跌 15% 或随后回到 650 美元。这就是为什么我说成本平均法（Cost Averaging）很重要。 通常财报发布后不会立即买入，但由于高流动性，Mag7 是个例外。 另外更正一下之前的帖子，是 2-6 天的反弹，而非完全恢复。
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@rioferdy838 $META might 2 day flush so -15% intraday low or back to $650 later. Which is why I said cost averaging is important. Usually you don’t buy right after earnings but Mag7 is an exception due to high liquidity. Also correction to post, 2-6 day recovery, not full recovery
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博主在META抛售中加仓看涨期权，视其为巨大机会。
1-2月期间，我在 $META 的看涨期权上增加了6张合约。去年4月也发生过同样的情况，当时花了2-6天才完全恢复。业绩超预期，基本面完好无损。关于资本支出(capex)的故事也一样。可能只是两天的抛售，所以我正在通过成本平均法(cost averaging)加仓，但这次抛售是一个巨大的机会。
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Added 6 figures in Jan-Feb $META calls. Same thing happened last year April and it took 2-6 days for full recovery. Earnings beat, fundamentals in tact. Same story about capex spend. Might be 2 day flush so cost averaging but this selloff is a huge opportunity. https://t.co/S3CwYsdaU4
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讨论$META看涨期权策略，倾向短期限以应对波动。
@gunnaosrs 是的，$META 的看涨期权(call options)看起来像是白送的钱，你的心态很对。不过我不会做大幅跳跃(leaps)，可能会选择期限更短的看涨期权，因为很多时候需要2-3天才能恢复。 我在想第二天(day-2)的抛售，或者如果今天盘中下跌15%以上，但让我们看看会发生什么。
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@gunnaosrs Yeah $META calls seem like free money, you have the right mindset. I'm not doing leaps though probably shorter dated calls since it takes 2-3 days for recovery a lot of times. I was thinking day-2 flush or if it drops 15%+ intra-day today but we'll see.
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若消除EPFA及稀释顾虑，NUAI或为优质投资标的。
@consmnesique 是的，我会去参观 $NUAI，并感谢 @Thebullwhisper、@chaptimustrades 和其他提到它的人的评论。我一个月左右的主要担忧是 EPFA 和未来稀释。但如果这些都不存在了，那可能是一项很棒的投資。
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@consmnesique Yep I'll visit $NUAI and appreciate the other comments from @Thebullwhisper, @chaptimustrades and others mentioning it. My main concern a month or so ago was that EPFA and future dilution. But if that's gone, would probably be a great investment.
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计划研究DBRG，并观察META财报以决定期权交易。
@gunnaosrs 我也需要研究一下 $DBRG，我时不时就会听到这个名字被提及。目前我个人正在关注 $META 的财报，以决定是否要买入期权。
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@gunnaosrs I need to look at $DBRG too, I keep hearing that name pop up from time to time. I'm just personally looking at $META earning right now to see if I want to enter options.
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询问 $FIX 与 $LGN IPO 后的资产负债表对比数据。
@gunnaosrs 你手头是否有 $FIX 与 $FIN 在 IPO 后最新的资产负债表估算数据，比如资产、债务和现金？据我所知，Legence 融资了 7.28 亿美元，但即便如此，他们手头仍有约 1.006 亿美元现金，约 22 亿美元资产，以及 16-17 亿美元债务。
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@gunnaosrs Do you have the current estimated balance sheet like assets, debt, cash on hand of $FIX vs $LGN on hand by any chance (after IPO)? From what I've read Legence raised $728M but even after that they still have ~$100.6m cash on hand, ~2.2B assets, with $1.6-1.7B debt.
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认同LGN看多逻辑，指出其债务风险，强调七巨头供应链标的价值。
@gunnaosrs 是的，那正是我内部思考过的相同论点。 目前我听到的关于 $LGN 的负面消息只有债务问题以及与私募股权(PE)基金相关的某些事项，但我并未深入调查。 每当看到许多“七巨头(Mag7)”公司使用某家企业的服务时，我就会非常感兴趣（例如 $ALAB、$TSM、$CRWV）。
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@gunnaosrs Yeah that was my same thesis I was thinking about internally. Only negatives I've heard about $LGN so far were debt and something with P/E funds but I haven't looked into it too much. Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)
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认为当前是逢低买入良机，但反对非必要扩大资本支出。
@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga 我个人的看法是，这是一个不错的逢低买入(dip buy)机会，但与此同时，我反对在非必要情况下扩大资本支出(capex)投入。
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@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga My personal take is that it’s a good dip buy but at the same time I disagree with scaling capex spend when it’s not required.
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看好NBIS涨至400美元，受降息利好及估值低估支撑。
@__visionxry__ 我仍然认为 $NBIS 会从 $121 涨到 $400，今天应该交易在 ~$158 左右。市场可能只是在等待财报以获取更清晰的指引，即使你可以自行估算。 Neocloud（新云）板块可能是降息的最大受益者，这也是利好因素。
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@__visionxry__ I still think $NBIS hits $400 from $121 and should be trading ~$158 today. Markets might just waiting until earnings for clearer guidance, even if you can estimate them. Neocloud sector is probably the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts too so that helps https://t.co/dO6F8PVCIH
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建议买入TSM 3月300看涨期权，视溢价情况决定平仓或行权。
@DigestingX 我个人可能会买入 $TSM 3月的 $300 看涨期权(Call Options)，并在1月卖出。如果溢价(Premium)大幅飙升，就在临近到期日时行权(Row Exercise)转为股票。
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@DigestingX I'd probably personally do $TSM March $300 calls and sell in Jan. If it blows past premium, then just exercise it into shares closer to the date.
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重申对新云板块整体看涨，强调NBIS的高非对称回报潜力。
@aasbadalados 我说过我对几乎所有新云(Neocloud)公司都持看涨态度，包括 $WYFI！ 我在其他帖子中提到的唯一一点是，与其他新云公司相比，像 $NBIS 这样的公司具有更高的非对称回报(asymmetrical returns)。 在这条推文中，我并没有对任何单一个股发表评论，这些都只是例子。
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@aasbadalados I said I’m bullish on just about almost every single Neocloud, including $WYFI! The only point I made on other posts was that some neoclouds have higher asymmetrical returns than others like $NBIS. On this post, I’m not making any single stock commentary, all were just examples
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祝贺粉丝高回报，看好NBIS受降息和季节性利好。
@accounting_ds 恭喜，年初至今(YTD) 300%+ 的回报真的令人惊叹。随着未来几个月再降息两次以及季节性顺风，对 $NBIS 应该非常有利。 是的，如果现在的策略有效就继续做下去，没有理由改变。
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@accounting_ds Congrats, 300%+ return is really amazing YTD. With 2 more rate cuts and seasonality tailwind for the next few months, should be really positive for $NBIS. Yeah just keep doing what you're doing if it's working, no reason to change.
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不建议追高BE和CLS，建议采用定投策略建仓。
@rioferdy838 我说它们是了解某个通用板块表现如何的良好代理指标，但我个人不会在上涨25%后追高 $BE 或 $CLS。但如果你要建仓，采用定投(DCA)策略会比较明智。
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@rioferdy838 I said they were good proxies to know how well a general segment was doing but I personally wouldn’t chase $BE or $CLS after a 25% increase. But if you were to enter positions would be smart to DCA
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点评GLXY等标的表现，IREN遭降级，CIFR与CRWV表现良好。
@mikelfilko 是的，$GLXY、$NBIS 和 $WLAC 是一组不错的标的。我认为只有 $IREN 的投资者对今天的双重降级感到有些意外，但其余标的表现良好，例如 $CIFR 获得升级，$CRWV 获得美国政府合同。
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@mikelfilko Yeah $GLXY, $NBIS, and $WLAC are a good bunch. I think only $IREN investors were in a bit of a surprise with the double downgrade today but the rest are performing well like $CIFR got upgraded and $CRWV US gov contracts.
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IREN遭下调至卖出，分析师指其云业务估值非理性繁荣。
把它当作原因挺可笑的哈哈，但肯定不是。 不过，$IREN 的投资者如果认为能以93%的毛利率(Gross Margins)扩展到数十亿美元的收入，那他们对利润率(Margins)的计算确实非理性地错了，但无论如何它还是一只好股票。 “H.C. Wainwright 将 IREN 从买入(Buy)大幅下调至卖出(Sell)，目标价(Target Price)从36美元上调至45美元。分析师在研报中告诉投资者，应在当前股价水平获利了结。该公司认为，投资者对 Iren 云业务(Cloud Business)的乐观情绪‘已达到非理性繁荣(Irrational Exuberance)的地步。’”
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Funny to think of it as the cause lol but definitely not. But yeah $IREN investors did their calculations on margins irrationally wrong if they think they can scale to billions of revenue off 93% gross margins but it’s a good stock either way. “H.C. Wainwright double downgraded (IREN) to Sell from Buy with a of $45, up from $36. Investors should be taking profits at current share levels, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes investor optimism around Iren’s cloud business “has reached a point of irrational exuberance.”
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建议小资金集中成长股，大资金降风险，首选$NBIS。
@accounting_ds 所以这取决于你的投资组合规模。规模越小，我越鼓励你在成长股上集中持仓。当规模变大时，即使存在非对称上行空间，也没有理由承担那么多风险。但如果你要集中持仓，$NBIS 可能是最好的选择。
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@accounting_ds So it depends on your portfolio size. The smaller it is, the more I'd encourage concentration in growth. When you get to larger sizes, there's no reason to take that much risk, even if there's asymmetrical upside. But if you're doing concentration $NBIS is probably the best
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台海地缘风险可控，TSM垄断地位稳固且领先INTC至少8年。
问得好，对于 $TSM 来说，台湾入侵问题始终是一个令人烦恼的逆风因素。这是一个过于关键的国家安全问题，我确信美国会与任何威胁台湾的国家开战，因为台湾处于整个供应链和 AI 基础设施的核心地位。而且我确信没有哪个国家愿意与美国直接开战。至于护城河部分，$TSM 几乎是全球都在使用的垄断者。美国支持 $INTC 不会改变其至少落后 8 年的事实。
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Good question, for $TSM it's always going to be an annoying headwind in terms of an invasion of Taiwan. It's too critical of a national security issue and I'm confident the US would go to war with anyone who threatens Taiwan due to the fact they're central to the whole supply chain and AI infrastructure. And I'm confident no country would want to get in a direct war with America. As for the moat part, $TSM is kinda a monopoly that everyone in the world is using. US backing up $INTC won't change the back that they're way too far behind for the next 8 years at least.
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建议持有HOOD，指出其界面友好且大单成交更透明。
@cmachdop 那么继续持有 $HOOD 没问题！在较大交易量下，订单成交的“挑拣”（Cherry picking with fills）现象通常会更明显。此外，Robinhood 确实非常用户友好，相比之下，查看其他经纪商的期权链（option chains）会显得相当令人困惑。
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@cmachdop Sticking with $HOOD is fine then! Cherry picking with fills usually is a lot more apparent at larger sizes. Also Robinhood is really user friendly, looking at option chains on other brokerages gets pretty confusing in comparison.
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强调HPC矿企执行风险与利润率，解释为何选择$NBIS。
再次强调，这并非针对 $BITF 或 $CLSK 等矿企的看空帖子。我在主题上对 Neoclouds 极度看好，并对 $WULF 或 $IREN 等特定矿企持看涨态度。但喜欢它们并不意味着我应该持有所有相关标的。 这是一篇关于执行风险和选择性的细致分析，因为并非每家从事高性能计算(HPC)的矿企/公司都能成功。 我特别指的是在规模化时的利润率，涉及的是 HPC 业务板块，而非比特币(BTC)挖矿或储备（如果你了解我的历史，知道我对后者也极度看好）。 除了解释我个人为何选择 $NBIS 外，我并不支持或反对任何特定的矿企。我相信该领域还会有像 $WULF 这样的其他赢家。 我只是在强调执行风险，并指出人们看待这些公司的视角（关注兆瓦级建设而非考虑利润率）可能是错误的。
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Again this is not a bear post on miners like $BITF or $CLSK. I am omega bullish thematically on Neoclouds and bullish on certain miners like $WULF or $IREN. Just because I like them doesn't mean I should own them all. This is a nuanced post on execution risk and selectivity as not every single miner/company that does HPC will succeed. I'm specifically talking about HPC segments when it comes to margins at scale, not BTC mining or reserves (which I am also super bullish on if you know my history). I'm also not arguing for or against any specific miner aside from explaining why I personally chose $NBIS. I'm sure there will be other winners like $WULF in the space too. I'm simply highlighting execution risk and pointing out that the lens people are looking at the companies (MW buildout instead of considering margins) might be wrong.