· 个股论点
涉及标的： $IREN
关于 $IREN，我看到那些吹嘘每股收益(EPS)“超预期”的评论，正是之前一直试图引用AI高性能计算(HPC)92%+毛利率的同一群人。这纯粹只是会计框架的包装。 从盈利角度看，他们预测AI云业务的年度经常性收入(ARR)达到34亿美元，这极其看涨。IREN 还有大量剩余产能，因此预计进入2026年后ARR将进一步扩大。 但除此之外，我一直主张产能转化为收入，但从该收入中产生的利润率/自由现金流(FCF)更为重要。现在的问题仅仅是有多少收入能转化为利润，我认为在后续财报出来之前，我们很难确切知道。 抛开这些不谈，IREN 的财报表现似乎很不错。
So for $IREN, the amount of comments I've seen bullposting about EPS "beat" are the same people who kept trying to quote 92%+ gross margins on AI HPC. It's literally just accounting framing. Earnings wise, extremely bullish that they projected $3.4B ARR from AI cloud. IREN has a lot more capacity left-over so they'll likely scale ARR more going into 2026. But that aside I've always argued capacity -> revenue, but margins/FCF from that revenue is more important. Now it's just a debate how much of that revenue converts into profit, which I don't think we'll know for sure until future earnings come in. That aside IREN earnings seemed great.