· 个股论点
是的，长期来看，超大规模云服务商自建ASIC和产能，且在合约容量结束后不再使用Neoclouds，这是$NBIS等公司的下行风险。我在最初的投资逻辑中提到，$CRWV、$NBIS几乎充当$NVDA的“云业务部门”，有助于抵御来自超大规模云服务商的利润率压缩并实现业务多元化。这就是为什么超大规模云服务商将收入导向这些小型公司。但总体而言，如果你的合约条款是10年或15年，你会拥有更多保护，但收入增长幅度较小（例如$NBIS与$MSFT的交易，收入在1-2年内从约11亿美元ARR增长至38亿美元以上ARR）。话虽如此，那是4-5年后的事，目前推测为时过早。通常你会根据新信息的出现，按月进行重估或审视风险与回报。
Yeah longer term that's the downside risk for $NBIS and others in terms of hyperscalers building out ASICs and capacity and not using Neoclouds after contracted capacity ends. I said in my original thesis that $CRWV, $NBIS and almost serve as $NVDA's cloud arm, and helps defend against margin compression from hyperscalers and diversify their business. That's why hyperscalers funnel revenue down to these small guys. But generally, you have more protection if your contract terms are 10Y or 15Y but less revenue ramp. (eg. with $NBIS $MSFT deal, revenue ramps to $3.8B+ ARR in 1-2 years on top of their ~1.1B ARR) That being said, that's 4-5 years from now, it's too far forward to speculate as of now. Usually you do things like re-rate or examine risk vs. reward month-by-month whenever new information comes out.