个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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建议定投NBIS，认为其当前价格被低估，维持400美元目标价。
@blu400_ 我个人建议进行成本平均法（Cost Average）买入。 即使 $NBIS 接近历史最高价（ATH），它仍在快速增长，并且每周都会创下新的历史最高价。 我维持 $400 的目标价（PT）牛市情景，因此目前 $130 的价格似乎被严重低估。
英文原文
@blu400_ Personally I’d cost average. Even if $NBIS is near ATH, it’s growing rapidly and it will keep having new ATHs every week. I’ve maintained $400 PT bull case, so $130 now seems quite undervalued https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
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看好WULF和CIFR因谷歌合同带来的高非对称回报潜力。
是的，我一直坚持认为这并非赢家通吃（GCP、Azure、AWS）。 $WULF 和 $CIFR 是两只我认为相比其他矿企具有更高非对称回报潜力的股票，主要得益于其与 $GOOGl（Mag7 成员）的合同可见性。 然而，令人沮丧的现实是，并非每一个高性能计算(HPC)矿企转型都能成功，因为难度极大。但部分企业会成功，市场也会对此进行定价。
英文原文
Yep, I’ve always maintained it’s not winner takes all (GCP, Azure, AWS). $WULF and $CIFR are the two I’d argue that has higher asymmetrical return compared to other miners just due to Mag7 contract visibility with $GOOGl. However, the sad reality of the situation is not every single HPC miner pivot will be successful, because it’s extremely hard. But some will be and the market will price that in
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博主表示刚加仓 META，目标价看至 680 美元。
@daggarwal917 @m9jdn8yz9c @soulbiri1 刚刚又加仓了 $META，现价 $646，1 月目标价约 $680 左右。
英文原文
@daggarwal917 @m9jdn8yz9c @soulbiri1 Added more $META just now $646 Jan ~$680ish
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确认META如期抛售，等待跌破650美元的机会。
@m9jdn8yz9c @soulbiri1 是的，正如预期，$META 迎来了第二天的抛售（flush）。正在等待任何跌破 650 美元的微小缺口。
英文原文
@m9jdn8yz9c @soulbiri1 yep second day flush on $META as expected. Waiting for any little break below $650
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看好全栈新云$NBIS利润率优势，减持矿工股。
市场开始定价： 像 $NBIS 这样的 AWS 式全栈新云（Neocloud）与 $CIFR、$BITF、$CLSK 等矿工之间的分化。 这就是我卖出 $IREN、$WULF 等并集中持仓 Nebius 的原因。 为什么？ 💹 利润率 > ⚡️ 产能。 就在今天： Nebius 的 CTO 表示： “市场上几乎没有真正的‘新云’。所谓的新云不过是一堆裸金属服务器，上面堆砌了大量第三方软件。” 耸人听闻？完全不是——如果你认真对待“云”这个概念，而不仅仅是堆砌硬件盒子。 Danila 解释了裸金属运营商很快就会发现 Nebius 已经在大规模层面解决的那些挑战。 这正是我指出 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称上行潜力的原因，因为矿工在规模化时可能会在利润率上挣扎。 我们还看到 Nebius 联合创始人 Roman Chernin 在《福布斯》的文章中总结，AI 经济需要一种新的、全栈的、AI 原生基础设施，而不是拼凑起来的系统： “你可以从一个供应商购买机架，将它们连接起来……但从长远来看，经济性、灵活性和速度取决于你是否控制自己的全栈。” “如果你控制全栈，你就控制产品、性能和经济效益。” _ 这并不意味着像 $WYFI、$APLD、$WULF 等其他高性能计算（HPC）公司没有增长空间，新云板块才刚刚开始上涨（尤其是当我们看到 $META 或 $AMZN 的财报时）。 然而，在投机阶段，我们已经为矿工的产能建设定价——大多数已经上涨了 50–200%+。 但谈到执行层面，那些控制全栈的人将在利润率上获胜。 我们看到 $CRWV 亲自体会到了这一点，花费数十亿美元进行软件收购，利用率仍低于 $NBIS（根据白皮书）。 我们也看到一家市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云厂商（Oracle）未能建立其全栈，毛利率仅为 14%。 如果 Oracle 都无法完全整合其软件，CoreWeave 仍在花费数年时间尝试这样做，小型矿工如何转型？ “仅 Type-1”运营商的论点将艰难地发现规模化时的利润率压缩是什么样子的。 正如《福布斯》文章总结： “归根结底，如果你只是连接盒子或在无法控制的基础设施上构建服务，你在规模和效率的游戏里将受到限制。” $NBIS 今天就已经拥有全栈。
英文原文
Markets are starting to price in: A divergence between AWS-style full-stack Neoclouds like $NBIS and miners such as $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK, and others. This is the reason I sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius. Why? 💹 Margins > ⚡️Capacity. Just today: The CTO of Nebius stated: “Almost no Neocloud in the market is actually a cloud. As in a bunch of baremetal with a ton of third-party software slapped on top.” Provocative? Absolutely not — if you take the term “cloud” seriously, not just as slapping on a bunch of hardware boxes. Danila explained how baremetal operators will soon discover the challenges Nebius has already solved at scale. And that’s exactly why I stated $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical upside, since miners may struggle with margins at scale. We’ve also seen a Forbes article by Nebius Co-Founder Roman Chernin, summarize how the AI economy requires a new, full-stack, AI-native infrastructure, not the stitched-together systems: “You can buy racks from one supplier, cable them together... but in the long term, economics, flexibility and speed depend on you controlling your own stack.” “If you control the stack, you control the product, the performance, and the economics.” _ This doesn’t mean there’s no room for other HPC companies like $WYFI, $APLD, $WULF, and others to grow, and the Neocloud segment is just beginning its run-up (especially when we look at $META or $AMZN earnings). However, during the speculation phase, we’ve already priced in capacity buildout with miners - most are already up 50–200%+. But when it comes to execution, those who control the full stack will win on margins. We’ve seen $CRWV figure that out firsthand, spending billions on software acquisitions and still maintaining lower utilization than $NBIS (as per the whitepaper). We’ve also seen how an $800B hyperscaler (Oracle) failed to build out its stack, running at 14% gross margins. If Oracle couldn’t fully integrate its software, and CoreWeave is still spending years trying to do so, how will small miners pivot? Arguments from “Type-1 only” operators will find out the hard way what margin compression at scale looks like. As the Forbes article concludes: “At the end of the day, if you’re just cabling the boxes or building service on top of infrastructure you don’t control, you’re limited in the game of scale and efficiency.” $NBIS already has that full stack today.
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等待股价跌至640-655区间进行成本平均。
@soulbiri1 我正在等待价格跌至 $640-$655 区间以进行成本平均(Cost Averaging)，但我可能会再发一篇简短的帖子。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I’m waiting for $640-$655 levels for cost averaging but I’ll probably make another mini post
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询问关于CVAT股票的深度投资逻辑。
@G77Harris 你对 $CVAT 是否有更深入的投资论点(Thesis)？非常希望能了解更多。
英文原文
@G77Harris Did you have a deeper thesis on $CVAT, would love to find out more
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预期META明日回调洗盘，计划周五加仓看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 这些 $META 的看涨期权(call options) 可能会大赚！ 我有点预期它明天会再次下跌以洗盘(shake out)，所以我打算在周五买入第二组看涨期权。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 These $META calls are probably going to print! I’m kinda expecting it to drop again tomorrow to shake people out so I was going to buy a second set of calls on Friday.
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询问博主对DNN股票的投资观点。
@finefornovv 我对后两者很熟悉，但你对 $DNN 的投资逻辑是什么？
英文原文
@finefornovv I’m familiar on the latter two but what’s your pitch on $DNN?
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计划研究WKEY的NAV与市值错配机会。
@dotsamaenjoyer 那我稍后去研究一下 $WKEY，看看净资产价值(NAV)/市值(MC)错配方面是否有异常，如果有机会我会发帖分享。感谢分享。
英文原文
@dotsamaenjoyer I’ll look into $WKEY later then to see if there’s anything up with NAV/MC mispricing and I’ll post if there’s an opportunity. Thanks for sharing
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质疑$WKEY NAV远高于市值的合理性，怀疑存在隐藏风险。
@dotsamaenjoyer 如果正如你所说，$WKEY 的净资产价值(NAV)远高于市值，那肯定有什么不对劲的地方。还有什么遗漏的信息好得不像真的吗？
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@dotsamaenjoyer There’s gotta be something off, their NAV is way above market cap for $WKEY if what you’re mentioning is true. Is there anything else missing that’s too good to be true?
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Meta核心盈利强劲，AI支出争议属叙事，作者认为可轻松买入。
@DiscountedBTC 对于 $META，其核心盈利表现卓越，若忽略一次性税收影响，其每股收益(EPS)大幅超预期。这仅仅是关于人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)是陷入无底洞还是会产生投资回报率(ROI)的争论，但这只是市场叙事。对我来说，这是轻松买入的机会。
英文原文
@DiscountedBTC For $META their core earnings were stellar and if you ignore the one time tax they strongly beat EPS. It’s just an argument of whether AI capex is going into a black hole or will have ROI but that’s just narratives. Easy buy for me
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因IV低且看好复苏，博主倾向用看涨期权杠杆做多META。
@blu400_ 隐含波动率(IV)极低。我也可以买入数百万股，但使用看涨期权(Calls)可以用少量资本获得极高的杠杆。我也对复苏充满信心，这就是为什么我接受在 $META 上使用杠杆。
英文原文
@blu400_ IV is extremely low. I could buy millions in shares too but with calls, it’s really high leverage for low capital. I’m also confident on recovery which is why I’m fine with leverage on $META
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博主回应指出，将重新核实 $MQ 的最新情况。
@BarnieTaintpipe 好的，我会再仔细看看，谢谢指出。我之前关于 $MQ 的记忆可能有些偏差，正如你提到的，应该有更近况的更新。
英文原文
@BarnieTaintpipe All right I’ll take another look thanks for pointing that out. I was just going off memory for $MQ, but there were probably more recent updates as you mentioned
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看好META财报，认为股价下跌系税务影响，预计短期反弹。
@soulbiri1 是的，很好的买入机会，财报表现优异，股价下跌看起来是因为一次性税务影响。 我不喜欢其资本支出(capex)的投入，但这目前只是叙事层面的问题，因为人们都在为其他“七巨头(mag7)”的资本支出欢呼。 $META 可能在一两周内就会恢复。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah great buy, stellar earnings, looks off due to one-time tax. Don’t like capex spend but it’s just narrative at this point since people are cheering on other mag7 capex spend. $META will probably recover in a week or two
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不看好MQ因依赖Square，更看好DAVE。
@BarnieTaintpipe 我早就知道这两家公司了。凭直觉，我不看好 $MQ，因为如果 Cash App 是其客户，它就对 Square 存在单一依赖。此外，Square 未来也可以推出自己的卡片业务。 相比之下，我更喜欢 $DAVE。
英文原文
@BarnieTaintpipe I’m aware of them both already. Off the top of my head $MQ not a fan because singular dependency on Square if that was the customer for Cash App. Also they can launch their own card offerings in the future. $DAVE I liked a lot more
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对WLAC有信心，但指出SPAC IPO等待期长且正式申报时往往已晚。
@Edu4rdo26 我对 $WLAC 相当有信心，我只是说等待期很长，很多人没有耐心等待 SPAC IPO 期间。但一旦你等到正式申报，很多时候已经太晚了。
英文原文
@Edu4rdo26 Oh I’m pretty confident on $WLAC, I just said there’s a huge waiting period and lot of people don’t have patience to wait for the SPAC IPO period. But once you wait for the actual filing a lot of times it’s pretty late
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Meta 或短期回调，建议利用高流动性分批建仓。
@rioferdy838 $META 可能会经历为期两天的抛售，日内低点下跌 15% 或随后回到 650 美元。这就是为什么我说成本平均法（Cost Averaging）很重要。 通常财报发布后不会立即买入，但由于高流动性，Mag7 是个例外。 另外更正一下之前的帖子，是 2-6 天的反弹，而非完全恢复。
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@rioferdy838 $META might 2 day flush so -15% intraday low or back to $650 later. Which is why I said cost averaging is important. Usually you don’t buy right after earnings but Mag7 is an exception due to high liquidity. Also correction to post, 2-6 day recovery, not full recovery
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博主在META抛售中加仓看涨期权，视其为巨大机会。
1-2月期间，我在 $META 的看涨期权上增加了6张合约。去年4月也发生过同样的情况，当时花了2-6天才完全恢复。业绩超预期，基本面完好无损。关于资本支出(capex)的故事也一样。可能只是两天的抛售，所以我正在通过成本平均法(cost averaging)加仓，但这次抛售是一个巨大的机会。
英文原文
Added 6 figures in Jan-Feb $META calls. Same thing happened last year April and it took 2-6 days for full recovery. Earnings beat, fundamentals in tact. Same story about capex spend. Might be 2 day flush so cost averaging but this selloff is a huge opportunity. https://t.co/S3CwYsdaU4
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讨论$META看涨期权策略，倾向短期限以应对波动。
@gunnaosrs 是的，$META 的看涨期权(call options)看起来像是白送的钱，你的心态很对。不过我不会做大幅跳跃(leaps)，可能会选择期限更短的看涨期权，因为很多时候需要2-3天才能恢复。 我在想第二天(day-2)的抛售，或者如果今天盘中下跌15%以上，但让我们看看会发生什么。
英文原文
@gunnaosrs Yeah $META calls seem like free money, you have the right mindset. I'm not doing leaps though probably shorter dated calls since it takes 2-3 days for recovery a lot of times. I was thinking day-2 flush or if it drops 15%+ intra-day today but we'll see.
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若消除EPFA及稀释顾虑，NUAI或为优质投资标的。
@consmnesique 是的，我会去参观 $NUAI，并感谢 @Thebullwhisper、@chaptimustrades 和其他提到它的人的评论。我一个月左右的主要担忧是 EPFA 和未来稀释。但如果这些都不存在了，那可能是一项很棒的投資。
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@consmnesique Yep I'll visit $NUAI and appreciate the other comments from @Thebullwhisper, @chaptimustrades and others mentioning it. My main concern a month or so ago was that EPFA and future dilution. But if that's gone, would probably be a great investment.
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计划研究DBRG，并观察META财报以决定期权交易。
@gunnaosrs 我也需要研究一下 $DBRG，我时不时就会听到这个名字被提及。目前我个人正在关注 $META 的财报，以决定是否要买入期权。
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@gunnaosrs I need to look at $DBRG too, I keep hearing that name pop up from time to time. I'm just personally looking at $META earning right now to see if I want to enter options.
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询问 $FIX 与 $LGN IPO 后的资产负债表对比数据。
@gunnaosrs 你手头是否有 $FIX 与 $FIN 在 IPO 后最新的资产负债表估算数据，比如资产、债务和现金？据我所知，Legence 融资了 7.28 亿美元，但即便如此，他们手头仍有约 1.006 亿美元现金，约 22 亿美元资产，以及 16-17 亿美元债务。
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@gunnaosrs Do you have the current estimated balance sheet like assets, debt, cash on hand of $FIX vs $LGN on hand by any chance (after IPO)? From what I've read Legence raised $728M but even after that they still have ~$100.6m cash on hand, ~2.2B assets, with $1.6-1.7B debt.
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认同LGN看多逻辑，指出其债务风险，强调七巨头供应链标的价值。
@gunnaosrs 是的，那正是我内部思考过的相同论点。 目前我听到的关于 $LGN 的负面消息只有债务问题以及与私募股权(PE)基金相关的某些事项，但我并未深入调查。 每当看到许多“七巨头(Mag7)”公司使用某家企业的服务时，我就会非常感兴趣（例如 $ALAB、$TSM、$CRWV）。
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@gunnaosrs Yeah that was my same thesis I was thinking about internally. Only negatives I've heard about $LGN so far were debt and something with P/E funds but I haven't looked into it too much. Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)
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认为当前是逢低买入良机，但反对非必要扩大资本支出。
@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga 我个人的看法是，这是一个不错的逢低买入(dip buy)机会，但与此同时，我反对在非必要情况下扩大资本支出(capex)投入。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga My personal take is that it’s a good dip buy but at the same time I disagree with scaling capex spend when it’s not required.
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看好NBIS涨至400美元，受降息利好及估值低估支撑。
@__visionxry__ 我仍然认为 $NBIS 会从 $121 涨到 $400，今天应该交易在 ~$158 左右。市场可能只是在等待财报以获取更清晰的指引，即使你可以自行估算。 Neocloud（新云）板块可能是降息的最大受益者，这也是利好因素。
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@__visionxry__ I still think $NBIS hits $400 from $121 and should be trading ~$158 today. Markets might just waiting until earnings for clearer guidance, even if you can estimate them. Neocloud sector is probably the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts too so that helps https://t.co/dO6F8PVCIH
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建议买入TSM 3月300看涨期权，视溢价情况决定平仓或行权。
@DigestingX 我个人可能会买入 $TSM 3月的 $300 看涨期权(Call Options)，并在1月卖出。如果溢价(Premium)大幅飙升，就在临近到期日时行权(Row Exercise)转为股票。
英文原文
@DigestingX I'd probably personally do $TSM March $300 calls and sell in Jan. If it blows past premium, then just exercise it into shares closer to the date.
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重申对新云板块整体看涨，强调NBIS的高非对称回报潜力。
@aasbadalados 我说过我对几乎所有新云(Neocloud)公司都持看涨态度，包括 $WYFI！ 我在其他帖子中提到的唯一一点是，与其他新云公司相比，像 $NBIS 这样的公司具有更高的非对称回报(asymmetrical returns)。 在这条推文中，我并没有对任何单一个股发表评论，这些都只是例子。
英文原文
@aasbadalados I said I’m bullish on just about almost every single Neocloud, including $WYFI! The only point I made on other posts was that some neoclouds have higher asymmetrical returns than others like $NBIS. On this post, I’m not making any single stock commentary, all were just examples
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祝贺粉丝高回报，看好NBIS受降息和季节性利好。
@accounting_ds 恭喜，年初至今(YTD) 300%+ 的回报真的令人惊叹。随着未来几个月再降息两次以及季节性顺风，对 $NBIS 应该非常有利。 是的，如果现在的策略有效就继续做下去，没有理由改变。
英文原文
@accounting_ds Congrats, 300%+ return is really amazing YTD. With 2 more rate cuts and seasonality tailwind for the next few months, should be really positive for $NBIS. Yeah just keep doing what you're doing if it's working, no reason to change.
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不建议追高BE和CLS，建议采用定投策略建仓。
@rioferdy838 我说它们是了解某个通用板块表现如何的良好代理指标，但我个人不会在上涨25%后追高 $BE 或 $CLS。但如果你要建仓，采用定投(DCA)策略会比较明智。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 I said they were good proxies to know how well a general segment was doing but I personally wouldn’t chase $BE or $CLS after a 25% increase. But if you were to enter positions would be smart to DCA