2025-11-02 · 个股论点

对比IREN与矿企估值，指出HPC转型执行风险及高估值隐忧。

中文翻译

关于 $IREN，人们不断提出论点：~3 GW 产能对应 ~170 亿美元市值，理应值 X 市值。 $RIOT 也有类似产能：1GW Corsicana，700MW Rockdale，加上其他，总计 ~3GW 产能（BTC 挖矿 + 管道项目合计）。~70 亿美元市值。 $MARA 也有 1.7GW，加上 3+ GW 管道项目。~67 亿美元市值。 $IREN 确实相比其他两家转向了高性能计算(HPC)，但我们肯定已经看到 480%+ 的涨幅已将其定价。公允的观点是，H.C. Wainwright 的分析师表示“IREN AI 云业务已达到非理性繁荣的程度”。此前我们仅关注产能，但市场将开始对利润率(execution risk)和执行风险进行定价。取决于你的判断：你认为 $IREN 能否像 $CRWV 花费数年数十亿美元那样执行并扩展至 HPC？或者当 $ORCL 这样 7500 亿美元的超大规模云厂商以 14% 毛利率都未能做到时，他们能否做到？此外，如果那么容易，Riot 和 Mara 及其他高 GW 产能矿企早就全面转向 HPC 并达到类似的市值重估了。这是人们不喜欢谈论的下行风险。然而，上行空间在于你提到的产能/基础设施 = 更高的收入潜力。

英文原文

With $IREN people keep making the argument about ~3 GW capacity at a ~17B marketcap, deserves to be X marketcap. $RIOT has a similar capacity too: 1GW Corsicana, 700MW Rockdale, and misc with ~3GW capacity (total if you combine BTC mining + pipeline). ~7B marketcap $MARA also has 1.7GW with 3+ GW pipeline as well. ~6.7B marketcap $IREN did make the HPC pivot compared to the other two but we've definitely seen that priced in with the 480%+ runup. Fair note is that analysts from H.C. Wainright have said "IREN AI cloud business has reached a point of irrational exuberance." Before, we looked solely at capacity, but markets will start pricing in margins and execution risk. It's up to your decision whether you think $IREN can execute and scale into HPC like $CRWV spent years and billions doing. Or if they can do so when $ORCL, a 750B hyperscaler failed to do so with 14% gross margins. Also if it were that easy Riot and Mara and other high GW capacity miners would have just full-sent HPC and would reach similar marketcap re-ratings too. That's the downside risk people don't like talking about. However, upside is that capacity/infrastructure = higher revenue potential that you mentioned.

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