业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 459 条 · 第 9 / 10 页
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博主回顾1月份进行的轻度虚值期权交易操作。
@LibertadEterno 1月份做了3个月到期、轻度虚值(out of the money)的期权。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Did 3 months out in Jan slightly otm
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博主感谢粉丝并分享收益增长7.5%
@soulbiri1 谢谢，结果涨了 7.5% 哈哈
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Thx turned out to be +7.5% lol
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博主自嘲亏损，反思不应在历史高位盲目追高。
@soulbiri1 哈哈我已经亏损-5.29%了，我想这算是提醒我不要在历史最高价(ATH)时盲目追高(ape in)。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 haha im already down -5.29%, this is a reminder for me i guess to not ape in ATHs
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因CIFR大涨跟风买入，未做深入调研。
@soulbiri1 我这么做只是因为我的 $CIFR 持仓今天涨了 29%，而且我看到 Wolf 的图表在那里显得很沮丧。除了知道 $GOOGL 的交易以及它与 CIFR 的相似性外，我没做太多尽职调查(DD)，但还是买了。看看结果如何！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I'm just doing this because my $CIFR positions went up 29% today and I just saw Wolf's chart sitting there all sad. Didn't do much DD aside from knowing about the $GOOGL deal + similarity with CIFR but bought anyway. Will see how it goes!
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清仓GRRR进行税务亏损收割并转向WLAC，明日将复盘策略。
@soulbiri1 我清仓了 $GRRR 以进行年底税务亏损收割(Tax Loss Harvesting)，并转向 $WLAC，我明天会发布一篇关于我的亏损和策略的文章。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I sold out of $GRRR for EOY tax harvesting and pivoted to $WLAC, I’ll post a write up tomorrow around my losses and strategies.
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博主分享RKLB建仓与信念建立过程，并列举长期看好标的。
@paramdan42454 这是我在未来5年，或者2年时间框架内，信念最坚定的标的。 对于像 $RKLB（$16 - 我首次买入时，$28 - 我建立信念时）这样的股票。 关于 $HOOD、$TSM 的事情是随机列举的，这只是我在未来十年内最坚信的内容。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 It's what I have the most conviction in the next 5 years, or a 2 year time-frame. For stocks like $RKLB ($16 - When I first bought, $28 - When I developed conviction). Things from $HOOD, $TSM, are in random order, it's just what I believe in the most within the next decade.
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关税冲击致市场恐慌，建议现金抄底非直接受损股，作者认亏持仓。
让人想起越南的闪回。 说笑归说笑，特朗普对中国进口商品加征100%关税并限制关键软件对华出口后，市场下跌超过3.65%。 这一突发事件是理性的重新定价，但也由恐惧和追加保证金通知（margin calls）所催化（盘后，例如$IREN下跌21%，或$BTC跌至10.7万美元）。 这通常预示着增长放缓和通胀上升（降息概率降低）。 然而，Polymarket和美联储期货数据仍显示到2025年有70-72%的概率进行3次降息。明年的中期选举通常对股市有利。而且我们正接近季节性行情的尾声，这通常对股市最有利。 当然，许多股票在交火中下跌，没有任何直接暴露，例如$UNH或$DKNG（例如Draftkings与中国、进口等无关，因为它是美国体育相关的，但下跌了9.4%）。 简而言之：可能是短期的关税冲击，轻微的宏观风险，以及由恐惧引发的整体抛售，但随后将恢复。 现在市场已关闭，在流动性低、利差大的时候（如盘后/隔夜）可以赚很多钱（在早期的关税事件中，$HOOD隔夜从45美元跌至28美元，随后大幅反弹至100美元以上）。 正是由于这类随机事件，我不建议持有期权，因为头寸可能会瞬间被核爆。 如果你持有现金头寸，去为极端抛售寻找便宜货，例如$CIFR下跌16%至14美元，而不是恐慌性地卖出你自己的头寸。 否则，这类事件通常只是短期的冲击，我们可能会看到在10月下旬降息前的恢复。当然，前提是股票没有像$QLCM、$NKE、$MU、$CDNS等那样受到中国收入的实质性影响。 （我没有预料到反应的严重程度，今天损失了不少，但将持有头寸）。
英文原文
Getting Vietnam flashbacks. Jokes aside, markets dropped 3.65%+ after Trump tarrifs Chinese imports by 100% and restricts the export of critical software to China. This surprise event was rational repricing but also catalyzed by fear + margin calls (after hours, with $IREN dropping 21% for example, or $BTC dropping to $107k). What this typically foreshadows is slower growth and higher inflation (lower rate cut odds). However, Polymarket and Fed futures data still shows 70-72% of 3 rate cuts by 2025. Midterm elections next year are also generally bullish for stocks. And we're approaching end of season seasonality, which is typically the best for stocks. And of course, many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH or $DKNG (eg. Draftkings has nothing to do with China, imports, etc. since it's US sports related, but fell 9.4%) TLDR: likely a short term tariff shock, mild macro risk, and a overall sell-off from fear, but into recovery. Now that markets are closed, a lot of money can be made is in times of low liquidity high-spread like after-hours/overnight (during earlier tariffs, $HOOD dropped from $45 to $28 overnight then went on a massive rally to $100+). Random events like these are why I don't recommend options as positions can be nuked up in an instant. If you have cash positions, go bargain hunting for extreme selloffs, eg. $CIFR dropping 16% to $14, instead of panic selling your own positions. Otherwise, things like these are usually short term from shock, and we'll likely see a recovery frontrunning rate cut in late October. That of course if the stock isn't materially impacted from China revenue unlike $QLCM, $NKE, $MU, $CDNS, etc. (I didn't expect the extent of the reaction, lost a decent amount today, but will hold positions).
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分享受关税影响较小的个股建仓及宏观恐慌下的逢低买入机会。
关于持仓变动： 新建 $DKNG 仓位 - $32.7（看起来估值不错，下跌7%） 买入 $UNH - $356（下跌3%） 买入 $AMZN - $217.8（下跌4%） 感觉这些股票受关税影响最小，尤其是 Draftkings 哈哈。 另外，由于宏观担忧因特朗普的一条推文突然浮现，$SPY 下跌1.65%提供了绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌3.7% $AMD - 下跌8.27% $HIMS - 下跌8% $SNAP - 下跌5.1% $META - 下跌3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。
英文原文
In terms of position changes: Started new $DKNG position - $32.7 (seems pretty good value, 7% drop) Bought $UNH - $356 (3% drop) Bought $AMZN - $217.8 (4% drop) Just felt these were the least unaffected by tariffs, especially Draftkings lol.
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博主祝贺他人收益并调侃自己持仓表现不及对方。
@platochi 我记得你在做完尽职调查(DD)后，一直在评论区推荐 $PATH，恭喜你的收益！ 我的 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 看涨预测目前仅上涨 130%-170%，所以我有点嫉妒你跑赢了我。
英文原文
@platochi I remember you kept calling out $PATH in the comments after you did the DD, congrats on the return! My $CIFR and $NBIS calls are only up 130%-170% so I’m a little jealous you outperformed me.
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博主分享在关税恐慌中低买高卖AMD看涨期权的交易经历。
@Edu4rdo26 嘿，我在关税末日暴跌期间持有 $AMD 的看涨期权(Call Options)，当时价格是 $86，后来在 $95 左右卖出了。
英文原文
@Edu4rdo26 dw I had $AMD calls at $86 during the tariff doom drop and sold at $95 or something.
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分享NBIS两周内涨14%的持仓收益并调侃市场预期。
@EestiRadar 自从我发布关于 $NBIS 的 ETF 帖子以来，大约两周内股价上涨了 14%，从 $106 涨到了 $121。 你们抱有什么样的期望呢 lol？
英文原文
@EestiRadar $NBIS is up 14% in like 2 weeks since I posted the ETF from $106 to $121. What kind of expectations are you having lol?
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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博主回顾早期IPO获利经历，表示更愿持有Boost。
@cuantitative 我提前抢到了 $DJT 和 $OKLO 的首次公开募股(IPO)，但错过了 $BULL。这些股票都带来了惊人的收益，比如3-6倍的回报，但我总是在它们身上过早卖出。不过，与前面两只相比，我确实更乐意持有 Boost 的股份。
英文原文
@cuantitative I’ve frontran $DJT, $OKLO ipos, missed out on $BULL. Those were all wildly profitable like 3-6x return but I always sold early on them. I’m genuinely fine holding shares of Boost vs the first two though.
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博主回顾自制ETF表现优异，称几乎全中。
@soulbiri1 是的，回过头来看，我制作的那个 ETF 简直太神了(goated)。几乎每只成分股都涨了。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah that etf I made was absolutely goated looking back in hindsight. Almost everything hit
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博主感叹某股暴涨，自嘲持仓过少错失良机。
@rocket5010 疯狂的涨势，人们将这家市值4000亿美元的公司视为正在追赶市值4.5万亿美元英伟达($NVDA)的目标。我本应该多买一些，哈哈，我只有1100股。
英文原文
@rocket5010 Crazy run, people are seeing this as a $400B MC company chasing up to a $4.5T $NVDA. I should have bought more lol I only have 1.1k shares.
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博主收益4.1%，因发布重大错误信息而删帖。
@itsdsha 我目前收益为 4.1%。 我删除了之前的帖子，因为我提供的信息有误，且该错误属于重大信息(material)。
英文原文
@itsdsha I’m up 4.1%. I deleted my past post since I gave wrong information that turned out to be material.
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博主表示仍持有CIFR看涨期权，涨幅达169%。
@__visionxry__ 是的，我仍然持有我在发布逢低买入帖子时建立的 $CIFR 看涨期权。它已经上涨了 169% 哈哈
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Yeah I’m still holding onto my $CIFR calls when I made the dip buying post. It’s up 169% lol
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持有等待恢复，对冲策略已生效，跌破30美元才考虑操作。
@BlessedFrLife 我只是持有等待恢复，除非它跌至 30 美元。虽然目前跌幅仍然不小，但对冲策略已发挥了作用。
英文原文
@BlessedFrLife Im just holding for recovery unless it drops to $30, it’s down quite a bit still but hedging served its purpose
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纠正流通股误判，通过卖出看涨期权降低持仓成本。
由于解禁导致的流通股(float)变化是实质性的，我之前误读了新闻，以为那只是机构的一笔大宗(block sale)交易。这就是公开学习(learning in public)！不过股价确实可能回到$10，所以卖出略高于行权价的周权看涨期权(weekly CC)可以降低风险。我卖出了150张本周到期的$12.5行权价看涨期权，将平均成本降低了约20美分。
英文原文
Its float changes due to unlock, which is material, I messed up reading the news articles saying it was just a one large block sale by institutions. This is called learning in public! But yeah could always head back to $10 so writing weekly CC slightly above strike lowers risk. Sold 150 or $12.5 strike for this week expiry lowered cost avg down 20 cents or so.
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计划定投并等待23日财报验证投资论点
@iPheNoX9 是的，我会进行成本平均(Cost Average)。除了近期至中期上升趋势中波动率降低之外，我真的无法理解这次下跌。 散户交易量应该会大幅上升。 等到23日发布财报时，我会让我的投资论点接受市场的检验。
英文原文
@iPheNoX9 Yeah I’ll cost average. Genuinely don’t understand the drop aside from near-mid term uptrend with lower volatility Retail trading volumes should be up a ton. I’ll try my thesis against the market when they release earnings on the 23rd.
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博主分享在SPRB上2小时获利3.7万美元并部分止盈的经历。
我无语了……在 $SPRB 上2小时内赚了+$37K（已实现+$21K）。最终我止盈了大部分仓位。 对我来说这不算多，但鉴于如此短的时间框架，我觉得这很有趣，只是没人可以分享。 我会持有价值$30k的仓位看看后续走势。https://t.co/ywK3ozncPA
英文原文
I have no words… +$37K on $SPRB in 2 hours ($21K realized). Ended up taking profit on most. It’s not much to me but I just find this amusing given the short timeframe and had nobody to share it with. I’ll hold $30k worth to see where it goes. https://t.co/ywK3ozncPA
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博主回顾加密资产历史预测并披露当前持仓。
@MqwantyMqwanty 我在比特币($BTC)首次冲向$124k之前，于$106k给出了目标价。随后在以太坊($ETH)冲向$4k之前，于$1.6k给出了目标价。 我目前仍持有比特币多头，没有以太坊头寸，并在$113做多莱特币($LTC)。 这些内容发布在我的Reddit上而非X，我最近才加入这里。
英文原文
@MqwantyMqwanty I gave $BTC at $106k before the first run to $124. Then $ETH at $1.6k before the runup to $4k. I’m still long bitcoin, no eth postions, long $LTC at $113 They were posted on my Reddit instead of X, I just joined here recently
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博主复盘持仓亏损，认为ETOR市场定价严重偏离。
@LegalEagle123 @BaronAfanas 我目前 $ETOR 的持仓成本平均在 $48，所以处于亏损状态；我的 $VIRT 下跌了 30%，但如果波动率指数(VIX)保持低位，这是符合预期的。 原本以为政府停摆会让 VIX 短暂飙升，但结果并没有。 不过对于 $ETOR，我认为市场对此的反应极其离谱。
英文原文
@LegalEagle123 @BaronAfanas I'm like cost average $ETOR $48 at this point so I'm at a loss, my $VIRT is down 30% but it's expected if VIX stays low. Thought government shutdown would have spiked VIX for a bit but turned out not to. But yeah for $ETOR, I think the market is extremely off about this
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博主自嘲此前期权策略过于保守。
@itsthesquonky 我在一两周前做了2026年1月、行权价130美元以上的期权，期限3个月，但显然那太保守了哈哈。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I did Jan 2026, $130+ strikes 3 months out a week or two ago but apparently that was too conservative lol https://t.co/ls4L5BDxgq
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博主披露当前约90万股票及15万期权持仓，承诺持仓破百万后更新。
@itsthesquonky 约90万美元的股票持仓，15万美元以上的看涨期权(Call)。当我通过均价摊高使股票持仓超过100万美元时，我会发布更新后的持仓。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky Round $900k in shares, $150k+ in calls. I'll post updated positions when I cost avg up above $1M shares. https://t.co/YX06OeQHgp
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复盘HOOD走势，类比RDDT经历，强调中期预测差异。
那条帖子是针对大约13%涨幅后的下一个交易日发布的，$HOOD 是我长期高确信度持仓之一，但目前走势像极了 $PLTR。我在 $RDDT 上也曾有过类似经历，随后又跌了20%，但最终变成了买入机会。如果我要给出中期预测，结论会不同。
英文原文
that post was for the next trading day after a 13% gain or so, $HOOD is was one of my high conviction stocks for long term but is currently pulling a $PLTR had the with $RDDT and now dropped another 20% but turned into a buy. if i had to give medium term predictions it would be different.
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博主反思去年因过早止盈 $MSTR 看涨期权，错失巨额潜在收益。
@mrazqkuki @SebastianS79509 @DeepValueBagger 呃，说实话，我作为多头投资者(long investor)的表现可能会更好，但没那么有趣。 例如，去年我在 $MSTR 看涨期权(calls)上投入了六到七位数的资金，因为我是在抢跑比特币减半(BTC halving)，仅这一项本就能带来约 3000%+ 的收益，例如超过 2000 万美元。但我却在 300-400% 左右就卖出了。
英文原文
@mrazqkuki @SebastianS79509 @DeepValueBagger Uh, I'd probably perform better as a long investor tbh, but not as fun. Had 6-7 figures in $MSTR calls last year for example, since I was frontrunning BTC halving and that alone would have been like 3000%+ $20m+ gain for example. But sold for 300-400% or something.
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复盘RKLB和HOOD过早卖出，错失后续大幅上涨。
我曾在$15时持有约$600k的$RKLB，在$25时卖出，随后在$22至$30之间反复操作，但在$30多美元中期过早卖出，现在股价已达$47，这还不算太糟。此外，我在关税下跌时在$30持有$300k以上的$HOOD多头头寸，但在恢复至$38左右时卖出，否则现在本可获利数百万。
英文原文
Same I had like $600k of $RKLB at $15 sold at $25, kept flipping it between $22 and $30, sold it too early mid 30's and now it's $47, which isn't that bad. Also had $300k+ of $HOOD longs at $30 on the tariff dip, but sold on recovery at like $38, would have been a few million by now
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卖出CRWV获利，看好IREN/NBIS算力需求，拟重估CRWV长期价值。
我昨天以 $CRWV $122.5 买入，今天以 $138.1 卖出。纯粹是时机运气好。我还没来得及深入分析 META 的合同，但鉴于 META 和其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)目前急需算力，这对 $IREN 和 $NBIS 来说是非常看涨的。虽然我卖出了，但我吃完沙拉后可能会花一两个小时研究一下合同和估值。个人而言，我一直更喜欢其他新云(neoclouds)公司而非 CRWV，主要是因为债务利息问题，但也许 META 的合同会让我重新考虑将其作为长期持有标的，我需要进一步研究。
英文原文
I had $CRWV yesterday $122.5, and sold it $138.1 today. Just got lucky with timing. I didn't have enough time to do a deep dive into the META contract yet, but just because META and other hyperscalers are looking for compute now this is insanely bullish for $IREN $NBIS. I did sell but I'll probably spend an hour or two to look into the contract + valuation after I eat some salad. Personally I've always liked the other neoclouds more than crwv just cause of debt interest, but maybe the meta contracts would make me reconsider this as a long, ill need to look into it more
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反思未锁定 $SMCI 利润导致巨额亏损，认为缴税优于本金大幅回撤。
@DeepValueBagger 你的罪过被宽恕了。 我最大的罪过是，当 $SMCI 让我赚取 50 万美元或更多时，我没有缴纳短期资本利得税（short-term capital gains tax），结果股价随即大幅回落。 虽然始终应考虑税务问题，但为了少缴 15% 的税而让 50 万美元以上的本金亏损 40%，显然比缴纳短期资本利得税更糟糕。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger You are forgiven for your sins. My biggest sin was not taking short term capital gains tax when I made $500k+ or something on $SMCI and then it dipped right back down. Always good to consider tax but losing 40% on $500k+ from short term capital gains is better than 15% on less
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博主表示愿对ETF加杠杆，计划减仓ASTS，持有LTC/BTC不追高NBIS。
@soulbiri1 哈哈，对于上面的投资组合ETF，我甚至愿意使用1.5倍的杠杆。在$ASTS反弹32%后，我会考虑减仓。在这些价位上，我依然看好$LTC和$BTC，所以不会为了买入更多$NBIS而减仓它们。记得卖出看涨期权(CC)！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Lol the portfolio etf above id be comfortable 1.5x margin. I'd be fine trimming $ASTS after 32% recovery. I still like $LTC and $BTC at these prices so I wouldn't trim for more $NBIS. Make sure to sell CC's!
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分享今日多只股票及加密货币的短期交易与长期持仓逻辑。
除了ORCL、$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR之外，今天这些是一些有趣的（短期）投资组合新增/交易和入场点，如果你好奇的话，附上我的一点点理由： GEMI ~$23.9 - 有趣的短期波段交易，随时波动+-~5%。不过从市值(Market Cap)来看被高估了。 AMZN ~$219.78 - 为4个月的时间框架进行定投(DCA)。 Figma ~$52.65 - 之前跌了4-5%，预计它会恢复。利润率在10亿美元营收基础上高达90%或类似的离谱数字。有趣的短期交易。 RKLB ~ $46.29 - 在$43 -> 53之间有趣的波段交易。 CRDO ~ $142.21 - 只是觉得它可能在10月反弹，定投(DCA)。 BTC ~ $109.5k - 不太在意+-5k的波动，这是为了长期持仓。 KLAR ~ $39.95 - 有趣的波段交易。 ETOR ~ $40.95 - 难以置信的低估lol。我可能会持有这东西$1M，而价格就保持不变。 当然，还在ORCL、CIFR、NBIS、IREN等股票上卖出了虚值(Out of the Money)的周权备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)。
英文原文
Apart from ORCL, $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR today these were some fun (short term) portfolio adds/trades and entries if you were curious + tiny bit of my reasoning: GEMI ~$23.9 - fun short term swing trade +- ~5% all the time. Overvalued though MC wise. AMZN ~$219.78 - DCA for 4 month timeframe. Figma ~$52.65 - was down like 4-5%, just expected it to recover. Profit margins are like 90% or something stupid off 1B revenue. Fun short term trade RKLB ~ $46.29 - fun swing trade between $43 -> 53. CRDO ~ $142.21 - Just thought it might rebound in Oct, DCA BTC ~ $109.5k - don't really care about +-5k too much, this is for long term positions. KLAR ~ $39.95 - fun swing trade ETOR ~ $40.95 - incredibly undervalued lol. I might end up with $1M of this thing and it will just stay the same price. And of course sold weekly covered calls on ORCL, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, etc... for way out of money strikes.
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博主分享期权交易盈利，但警告高风险，建议买入正股。
@pepemoonboy 谢谢！我今天做的每一笔 $NBIS $CIFR $IRRN 看涨期权(call) 都盈利了，涨幅大约在 5-20%。但我不会向任何人推荐短期看涨期权，因为风险真的很高。买入正股(shares) 才是正道！我只在我觉得是日内底部时才做看涨期权，而且我也稍微有点运气。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks! I'm green on every single $NBIS $CIFR $IRRN call by like 5-20% today but I wouldn't recommend short term calls to anyone since risk is really high. Shares are the way to go! I only do calls when I feel like it's the daily bottom and I had a bit of luck on my side
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博主凭直觉交易SMCI，两天获利18%。
@__visionxry__ 哦，我刚才完全是凭直觉做的这笔交易。 它对 $SMCI 奏效了，两天内涨了大约 18%。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Oh I just did this one on feels. It worked with $SMCI went up like 18% in 2 days after
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博主分享一小时内通过看涨期权获利超1万美元的交易经历。
@Wind56083722900 哈哈，谢谢。仅凭其中一个看涨期权(Call Option)的合约，我一小时内就赚了超过1万美元。手头留点闲钱，以便在股价意外大幅下跌时买入看涨期权。 https://t.co/BveSfka10a
英文原文
@Wind56083722900 lol thanks. I'm up over $10K in an hour on just one of those call strikes. Good to have some spare change to buy calls if something really drops beyond expectations https://t.co/BveSfka10a
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博主分享在CIFR和NBIS抄底，并小额投机IREN看涨期权。
交易还没结束！虽然价格可能还会下跌，但我喜欢在这些价位。我也发实时动态，这样大家就知道我确实在 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 上抄底。另外加了 1.5 万美元的极短期 $IREN 看涨期权，不建议大家这么做。我只是手头有点零钱。
英文原文
Trading day isn't over yet! Also prices could still go down but I like them at these levels. I post live too so people know so people know I'm actually timing the bottoms with $CIFR and $NBIS. Also added $15k in very short term $IREN calls, would not recommend this one. I just have spare change
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专注 $CIFR 看涨期权，逢低加仓 $NBIS 因看好基本面。
@taleino93 了解得不够多，我会专注于 $CIFR，我认为它很可能会回到 16 美元。目前我持有了约 5 万美元的看涨期权。对 $NBIS 的回调感到满意。如果它再次下跌，我会继续加仓看涨期权，因为我对基本面很有信心。
英文原文
@taleino93 Don't know enough, I'd just concentrate in $CIFR likely to head back to $16 imo. Ended up with $50k-ish in calls so far. Happy with $NBIS dip. I'll keep adding calls if they drop again since I'm convinced about fundamentals https://t.co/ahm6Bw4T1a
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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博主回顾交易表现，强调基于独立研究无需依赖粉丝资金。
@moonman6577 谢谢！是的，$UPWK 确实花了一个月，但最终涨幅超过 45%。 我通常方向判断正确，但有时时机会稍差一点。不过很多时候我也判断得很准，比如 $HIMS 或 $ETH。 我不需要粉丝带来的资金，因为我基于自己的独立研究(DD)进行交易，且行之有效。
英文原文
@moonman6577 Thanks! Yeah $UPWK did take a month, but ended up being 45%+. I'm usually directionally correct but sometimes get timing off a bit. A lot of other times I got it spot on lol like with $HIMS or $ETH tho I wouldn't need follower $ because I trade on my own DD and it works
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作者复盘交易收益，对比持股与交易风格的税务差异。
谢谢，我会把这看作是一种相当规避风险的收益，几乎没有使用杠杆或期权！虽然显示涨幅超过630%，但这属于短期资本利得税。所以其他单纯持有股票的人最终可能比我更赚钱。 但这只是我的交易风格而已。 $HOOD 过去一年的涨幅为456.87%，如果全仓持股并享受长期资本利得税优惠，从长远来看可能会更好。
英文原文
Thanks, I'd consider it a pretty risk-averse gain without much leverage or options! While it does show 630%+, it's short term capital gains tax. So other people who just hold stocks might end up more profitable than me. It's just my trading style though. $HOOD 1Y rally was 456.87%, so if full ported with shares and took long term capital gains, it might be better off in the long run.
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博主回顾自2016年以来的投资经历，强调专业知识和坚守领域是收益来源。
我确信自己一直盈利！早在2016年左右刚开始投资时，我就在$2000美元的价格买入了比特币(BTC)。 大部分收益都来自于领域专业知识(domain expertise)以及坚守在该领域内。 我写这篇总结有点偷懒，但我仍然在这里记录了我所知道的一切： https://t.co/BPZjwv8Y5H
英文原文
Pretty sure I was always profitable! I bought BTC at $2k when I first started investing back in like 2016, Most of the returns just comes from domain expertise and sticking within that. I got a little lazy writing this up but I'm still writing down everything I kind of know here: https://t.co/BPZjwv8Y5H
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博主分享核心持仓与主动交易策略，反思若全仓操作收益或超6000%。
除非隐含波动率(IV)低于33%，否则我不做期权交易，比如 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，每笔都获利 $100K+。 通常我会持有一批高确信度的核心股票，如 $HOOD、$RKLB、$IBIT、$NBIS，并持有固定时间。 还有一篮子随机标的，如 $GRAB、$AMZN 等。 然后我会预留大量资金用于主动交易，这些我通常在 X 上发布。 有太多暴涨机会值得思考，比如减半前的 MSTR、Hood、SMCI、HIMS 等。我几乎抓住了每一次突破，但出于风险管理，只投入了组合中较小比例的资金。 如果每次我都全仓押注，哈哈，我的收益可能已经涨了 6000%+。
英文原文
I don't do options unless it's <33% IV things, such as $GOOGL or $TSM, both $100K+ profit each on. Usually I hold a core portfolio of high conviction stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $IBIT, $NBIS for a set amount of time. A basket of random stuff like $GRAB, $AMZN, etc. Then I set aside a good amount for active trading, which I usually post on X. Just too many run-ups to think about, like MSTR pre-halving, Hood, SMCI, HIMS, etc. I kind of caught every breakout but only put a smaller percentage of my portfolio into that for risk management. I'd probably be up 6000%+ if I full ported every time lol.
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博主展示630%年化收益，强调公开分享分析以助人。
人们常问，当我全对时会发生什么： 1年回报率：630.44% 📈 我只是真心想要提供帮助！ 在任何上涨行情之前，我都会公开分享我对 $NBIS 到 $HOOD 再到 $UPWK 的分析与持仓。 欢迎查看我在 X 或 Reddit 上的历史记录。https://t.co/2JGib55O0r
英文原文
People often ask what happens when I get everything right: 1 Year Return: 630.44% 📈 Just genuinely want to help! I share my analysis and positions openly from $NBIS to $HOOD to $UPWK before any rally. Feel free to look through my history on X or Reddit. https://t.co/2JGib55O0r
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记录今日持仓价格，对比一年期美债与佩洛西持仓表现。
今天标记一下，看看美国国债ETF在一年后的表现。 $LAC 锂美洲公司 - $5.29 $INTC 英特尔 - $29.34 $FNMA 联邦国民抵押贷款协会 - $12.82 $MP MP材料 - $74.70 $XUSS 美国钢铁 - $47.55 美国政府会跑赢南希·佩洛西吗？
英文原文
Bookmarking this to see how the US Gov ETF performs in 1 year time today. $LAC Lithium Americas Corp - $5.29 $INTC Intel - $29.34 $FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association - $12.82 $MP MP Materials - $74.70 $XUSS US Steel- $47.55 Would the US Gov outperform Nancy Pelosi?
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博主因NBIS无回调而错失加仓至百万美元的机会。
@L1m05_ 确实哈哈，$NBIS 一直没有回调买入的机会，它只是直线上涨。我本想再追加 30 万美元使其达到 100 万美元，但没有等到好的机会。
英文原文
@L1m05_ True lol, there's been no dip to buy with $NBIS, it just goes straight up. I wanted to add another $300k worth to make $1m but didn't get a good opportunity.
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博主表示NBIS目前表现良好。
@pepemoonboy 目前为止 $NBIS 的表现还不错 https://t.co/RsqZ8n0uh4
英文原文
@pepemoonboy So far so good with $NBIS https://t.co/RsqZ8n0uh4
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卖出TSM看涨期权获利，减仓小盘股并轮动至NBIS。
@foogleman1234 我今天卖出了所有 $TSM 看涨期权，行权价 $175，获利超过 100%。我减仓了涨幅在 20-40%+ 的小盘股。将资金轮动配置到 1 个月期限的 $NBIS 虚值看涨期权和正股中。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 I sold all my $TSM calls today $175 for 100%+ profit. I trimmed small caps that were up 20-40%+ Rotating into it into 1 month $NBIS out of money calls and shares
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回顾UPWK、HIMS和OSCR的交易点位与表现
@DanielTan64198 太棒了！如果你还在持有，$UPWK 可能已经上涨了 50%+。$HIMS 我在大约 $25 时推荐过，后来在 $48 时又推荐了一次。 $OSCR 是一笔我曾在 $14 左右发布的波段交易，在 $22 卖出会是个不错的选择，但很高兴听到你做得很好。
英文原文
@DanielTan64198 Nice! $UPWK was probably 50%+ if you're still holding. $HIMS I called out at like $25 and again at $48. $OSCR was a swing trade I think I posted at $14 and a good sell would have been $22 but glad to hear you're doing well
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博主分享TSM看涨期权涨68%及NBIS涨10%的优异收益。
@DavidJang0620 $TSM 看涨期权*。 自从我发帖以来，我的看涨期权目前上涨了 68%。$NBIS 可能上涨了 10%，这仍然是一个极好的回报。
英文原文
@DavidJang0620 $TSM calls*. My calls are up 68% right now since I posted. $NBIS is probably up 10%, which is still an extremely good return.
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博主分享5万美元仓位交易，看好10倍潜力，接受20%亏损风险。
@soulbiri1 我最终买了5万美元以上的仓位。我想风险回报比是值得的，如果这笔交易属实，市值可能增长到30-70亿美元，也就是从当前水平上涨10倍。如果不属实，亏损20%也不算太糟。安息吧，版主删掉了我在WSB（华尔街梗图版）发的图，我在那张图上花了整整5分钟 https://t.co/tcIDLFugQG
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I ended up buying $50k+ worth. Worth the risk reward I guess, if the deal is real then it could grow to a $3-7B market cap, which is 10x from here. If not, losing 20% isn't really bad RIP mods removed my drawing from WSB, I spent a solid 5 mins on that https://t.co/tcIDLFugQG