个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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分析IQE、AAOI及AXTI等小众AI供应链标的的早期机会与执行风险。
可能尚未被定价的只有那些更小众的领域，例如在磷化铟(InP)衬底上的外延工艺，或者那些刚刚触及拐点的新型激光器/收发器玩家。 我曾提到 $IQE 处于极早期阶段（但风险更高），因为其同行 Landmark 的估值已达 35-40 亿美元。 这取决于重组情况。 $AAOI 也处于极早期，情况更微妙，因为他们提供端到端服务（激光器 -> 设计 -> 组装）。如果他们能在每一层执行到位，淘汰 $FN/中际旭创 类型的玩家并扩大利润率，可能实现 10 倍增长。 但这很大程度上取决于执行能力。 $AXTI 也许有机会，如果 Shkreli 加入董事会并教他们如何涨价的话。
英文原文
Only ones probably not priced in are the more niche ones like epitaxy process on top of the InP substrates or maybe new laser/transceiver players that hit their inflection point. I mentioned $IQE was extremely early (but more high risk), given their peer Landmark was priced at $3.5-$4B. This depends on restructuring. $AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x. This largely depends on execution though. $AXTI maybe if Shkreli joins their board and teaches them how to hike prices.
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看好存储板块，NAND涨价超预期，预计跑赢大盘。
@eclement04 不，我在做多存储和波动率上升。Q2 NAND 价格被三星和可能的 SK 海力士翻倍，比分析师预期高出 4-10 倍。宏观背景影响大多数股票，但我预计该板块将方向性跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@eclement04 No I’m long on memory and volatility increases. Q2 NAND prices were doubled by Samsung and likely SK Hynix, around 4-10 times more than analyst expectations. There’s a lot of macro backdrop affecting majority of stocks, but I expect that sector to directionally outperform.
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IREN因GPU采购及ATM增发稀释，轻资产优势丧失，散户价值或归零。
@Brian_S1_1991 第一次大规模买入 $IREN 是在 20 多美元高位至 30 美元低位区间。随后在上涨途中退出。去年它是一家很有前景的轻资产公司，但今年因购买 GPU 和极端的自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释而艰难转型，这可能会彻底抹去散户股东的价值。 https://t.co/ocQ6vcx1Qz
英文原文
@Brian_S1_1991 First major $IREN buys were in the high $20’s low 30’s. Then exited on the way up. It was very promising, asset light company last year but hard pivoted with GPU buys and extreme ATM dilution that might just wipe out retail share value. https://t.co/ocQ6vcx1Qz
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IREN投资逻辑已变，警惕巨额ATM融资风险。
我去年曾做多 $IREN，但投资逻辑已发生实质性变化。 再次强调，我现在对 $IREN 没有任何经济利益，但我确实关注散户的最佳利益。 鉴于涉及真金白银，有情绪波动是可以理解的，但如果想继续做多，重要的是要意识到来自 60 亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资的明显危险信号(red flags)。 人们可以自由决定如何操作自己的投资组合。
英文原文
I was long $IREN last year, but the thesis has materially changed. Again I have zero economic interest in $IREN now but I do look out for retail’s best interest. It’s fine if there’s emotion involved given money is at stake, but it’s important to become aware of the glaring red flags from a $6B ATM if they want to continue going long. People are free to do whatever they want with their own portfolio.
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质疑BMNR偏离以太坊质押目标，资金投向巧克力公司，建议重新评估。
是的，其他股票如 $BMNR 也是如此。 如果投资者支持的目标是收购 5% 的以太坊($ETH) 供应量，并通过质押(Staking) + 代币升值来实现复利回报。 那么该公司在甚至尚未收购 5% 的以太坊之前，就将 2 亿美元资金转向一家 YouTuber 的巧克力棒公司。 也许是时候重新考虑了。
英文原文
Yes it’s the same with other stocks like $BMNR. If the goal investors supported was to acquire 5% of $ETH supply and compound return through staking + token appreciation. Then the company redirects $200M into a YouTuber’s chocolate bar company before even acquiring 5% of Ethereum. Might be a good time to reconsider.
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AXTI受铟价新高及光子需求驱动，订单饱满且扩产，未来盈利将体现涨价。
铟非标准件(Indium nonstandard)价格已创历史新高。 当人们审视 $AXTI 的财报时，常犯的一个错误是用短缺/光子学(Photonics)需求爆发前约1年前的合同来评判其业绩。 我预计随着新合同周期到来 -> 半年后的前瞻盈利将开始体现大量涨价影响。 但财报显示他们订单已排满且正在扩产（这是利好）。
英文原文
7n indium nonstandard is up to all time highs. When people look at $AXTI earnings, they often make the mistake of judging contracts from maybe 1Y ago before a lot of the shortages/photonics demand began. I'd expect when new contract cycles hit -> forward earnings a half a year from now will start showing in a lot of the price hikes. But earnings showed they were already fully backlogged and are expanding capacity (which is positive).
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解析做空MSTR实为套利mnav溢价回归，非方向性做空且风险有限。
我认为情况比这稍显微妙。做空 $MSTR 的人同时也做多比特币，他们是在对 mnav（市值与净资产价值）溢价进行套利，使其从 1.8-2 倍的水平回归至 1 倍。他们并非方向性做空，且亏损通常有限，因为很难看到 MicroStrategy 的 mnav 涨至 2 倍或 4 倍。
英文原文
I think it's slightly more nuanced than this. People who are short $MSTR are also long Bitcoin and are arbitrating the mnav premium from 1.8-2 levels back to 1. They're not directionally short and losses are usually caped since hard to see mnav increasing to 2 or 4 for microstrategy.
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提及ATOM本月巧合上涨80%。
@JorgeA76608 $ATOM 巧合的是，本月上涨了 80%。https://t.co/3ZF4d4DsLt
英文原文
@JorgeA76608 $ATOM coincidentally is up 80% this month. https://t.co/3ZF4d4DsLt
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诉讼撤销与营收加速超预期，HIMS 周一走势值得关注。
@himshouse 确实如此，没人预料到诉讼被撤销和营收重新加速会同时发生。这就是为什么 $HIMS 流通盘的 40% 以上被做空。真正的惊喜总是有创造历史的潜力，我们周一见分晓。
英文原文
@himshouse It's true though, don't think anyone expected both the lawsuit to be dropped and revenue to re-accelerate at the same time. Hence why 40%+ of $HIMS float was sold short. Genuine surprises like always have the potential to make history, we'll see what happens on Monday.
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存储涨价背景下，SK海力士回调是极佳买点。
@PronologieFR 三星前几天刚刚将NAND闪存价格翻倍，DRAM内存价格也上涨了。在我看来，SK海力士($SKHYNIX)在回调时看起来是一个极好的买入机会。市场对石油/液化天然气(LNG)进口的担忧被夸大了。
英文原文
@PronologieFR Samsung just doubled NAND prices the other day, DRAM prices hiked. imo SK Hynix looks like a terrific buy on the dip. Fears are overblown on oil/LNG imports.
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打包购买多家金融科技龙头公司的成本约等于 Stripe。
@101010_jv Ayden - $330亿 $PYPL - $430亿 $HOOD - $690亿 $CRCL - $230亿 33+43+69+23。你实际上可以用和 Stripe 差不多的价格，把金融科技(Fintech)领域的所有领军企业打包买下来。
英文原文
@101010_jv Ayden - $33B $PYPL - $43B $HOOD - $69B $CRCL - $23B 33+43+69+23. You can literally put together all the leaders in Fintech for around the same price as Stripe.
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RVI 开盘大跌，批评其持仓为高位套现提供流动性。
$RVI 现已上市，开盘下跌 16%。 很遗憾地说，如果你以 1590 亿美元的估值买入 Stripe 等公司，只是为了让员工和管理层套现； 同时以 750 亿美元的估值买入 Revolt，在其估值刚刚大幅飙升之后； 而与此同时，从 Ayden 到 $HOOD 等公开市场上的金融科技股正在暴跌。 你就是退出流动性（exit liquidity）。
英文原文
$RVI is now live and is down 16% on market open. Sorry to say, but if you’re buying companies like Stripe @ $159B valuations to cash out employees and executives. While buying Revolt @ $75B, after freshly jacked up valuations. All while fintechs in public markets from Ayden to $HOOD are tanking in public markets. You’re exit liquidity.
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对比ENPH高SI增长与GME历史暴涨，探讨HIMS走势。
@EikonDD 是的，目前看来可能性很大。人们曾讨论过 $ENPH 在 14% 的销售收入(SI) 下翻倍，但现在是 40%+。 记得 $GME 那一年从 $3 涨到 $150 真的令人难忘。不认为我们会再看到那样的重演，但好奇 $HIMS 会走向何方。
英文原文
@EikonDD Yeah seems pretty likely at this point. People were talking about $ENPH doubling off 14% SI but this is 40%+ Was really memorable seeing $GME go from $3->$150 that one year. Don’t think we’ll ever see a repeat of that but curious where $HIMS heads.
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HIMS遭空头猛烈做空，跌幅剧烈但反弹潜力同样巨大。
@yianisz 我最近几个月一直在看空头将 $HIMS 砸得粉碎。惊讶于他们竟能找到足够的股票借入并做空流通盘的 40%。虽然跌幅剧烈，但反之亦然（即空头回补也会引发剧烈反弹）。
英文原文
@yianisz I was just watching short sellers nuke $HIMS into the ground past few months. Was surprised they managed find enough shares to borrow and short 40% of the float. The drop was violent but it works in reverse too.
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IREN稀释源于对冲套利非做空，HIMS方向性做空易引发轧空。
@BlackPantherCap $IREN 的 60 亿美元稀释来自自动取款机(ATM)增发和可转换票据对冲套利，并非真正的做空。$HIMS 主要是方向性做空，而上述情况实际上会引发空头挤压(Short Squeeze)。
英文原文
@BlackPantherCap $IREN is $6B dilution from an ATM and convertible note arbitrage from hedging, not actual shorts. $HIMS was primarily directional shorts, and these scenarios actually lead a short squeeze
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HIMS利空出尽基本面反转，周一或现历史性空头挤压，作者计划买入。
周一可能创造历史。 因为历史上最大规模的空头挤压之一可能正在上演。 > 机构做空了 $HIMS 40% 的流通股（规模极大） > 预期其营收增长为 0 > 押注 FDA 和 $NVO 会让该公司破产 然而，所有转折都在一天内发生： > $HIMS 与 Novo Nordisk 的诉讼被撤销。 > Hims 营收突然再次加速。 > 与此同时，$HIMS 通过 Eucalyptus 扩展至加拿大、澳大利亚和日本。 > $HIMS 通过 Zava 扩展至英国和欧洲。 > 现在突然拥有了合法的全球分销网络、健康的资产负债表、与 $NVO 的合作关系，以及 40% 的流通股被做空。 可能没人预料到这一点。 尤其是那些认为 HIMS 会破产、现在面临数十亿美元无限亏损的空头。 我也曾看空 $HIMS，但这确实是一个巨大的反转故事。 两种可能的场景： 1. 如果所有空头周一同时平仓，可能会发生类似大众汽车式的空头挤压。 很可能一些空头为了风险管理想在其他人之前以 $22 的价格退出，这将引发即时的买盘压力。 2. 另一种场景是随着 $NVO 合作关系的建立，$HIMS 的增长重新点燃，并随着公司基本面改善，出现类似 $TSLA 式的缓慢挤压。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 $70，现在回到 $22，且兼具法律清晰度和营收加速。 我个人会在周一跳上这艘船，添柴加火，看看事态如何发展。 这可能是历史的缔造时刻。
英文原文
Monday could make history. As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold. > Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large) > expecting 0 revenue growth > betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company All in one day: > $HIMS lawsuit with Novo Nordisk dropped. > Hims sudden revenue acceleration begins again. > All while $HIMS expanded to Canada, Australia, and Japan via Eucalyptus in the meantime. > $HIMS expanded to UK and Europe with Zava > Now suddenly a legal global distribution network, healthy balance sheet, $NVO partnership, and 40% of the float shorted. Likely 0 people expected this. Especially short sellers who now face billions in infinite losses, that thought HIMS would be bankrupted. I was bearish on $HIMS too, but this is a massive turnaround story. The two likely scenarios: 1. One scenario is a Volkswagen-type short squeeze on Monday if all the short sellers tries to cover at once Monday It's very likely some short sellers want to exit before others do at $22 for risk-management and this causes immediate buying pressure. 2. The other scenario is growth in $HIMS reignited with the $NVO partnership and a slower $TSLA-style squeeze over time as company fundamentals improve. Given $HIMS was once trading at $70 and now it's back at $22, with both legal clarity + revenue acceleration. I would personally hop on the boat on Monday to add fuel to the fire to see where this heads. Could be history in the making.
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IREN巨额ATM构成抛压，建议持有其他数据中心股。
@Agrippa_Inv 我们看看这对 $IREN 意味着什么。为持有者加油，但结构性上，60亿美元的定向增发(ATM)在任何反弹中都会对他们不利。这就是为什么持有其他没有如此巨大抛压和可能面临市值一半卖压的数据中心(DC)股票可能更好。
英文原文
@Agrippa_Inv We'll see how this bodes for $IREN. Cheering on the holders, but structurally the $6B ATM works against them in any rally. Which is why it's probably better to hold other DC stocks that don't have that large overhang and likely selling pressure of half the MC.
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HIMS周一轧空或载入史册，空头措手不及
@tweet_tj 如果所有空头同时平仓，那场面将会相当滑稽。 $HIMS 周一的轧空(short squeeze)事件可能会载入史册，因为我认为所有人都措手不及，且最大流通盘(max float)已被做空。
英文原文
@tweet_tj It’s going to be pretty funny if all the shorts cover at the same time. $HIMS short squeeze Monday could genuinely be one for the history books since I think literally everyone was caught off guard + max float was shorted
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HIMS 股价暴跌后现 22 美元吸引力，或成做多良机。
是的，即使在此之后，$HIMS 仍然下跌了超过 44%。市场此前已计入诉讼和收入损失的影响，但这一消息彻底颠覆了局面。根据新闻后续发展，这可能再次成为一个不错的做多机会。考虑到在风波爆发前股价交易区间为 50-60 美元，22 美元看起来是一个相当有吸引力的入场点。
英文原文
Yeah even after this $HIMS is still down way over 44%+. Markets were pricing in a lawsuit + revenue loss but this news just flipped everything on its head. Might be a good long again depending on how the news unfolds. But $22 looks like a pretty attractive entry point given they were trading in the $50s-$60s before all the drama began
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HIMS与NVO合作消息令市场及空头意外
@pepemoonboy 我相当确定 $HIMS 的消息让所有人都措手不及，尤其是所有的空头。完全没想到 $HIMS 会和 $NVO 达成合作，这真是出乎意料。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Pretty sure the $HIMS news caught everyone off guard, especially all the short sellers. Did not expect a $HIMS partnership with $NVO out of all things.
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HIMS监管风险解除且高做空比例，股价具备反弹潜力。
@demarscrypto 很多人在 $HIMS 50-70 美元时买入，因此即使现在股价为 22 美元，随着监管问题得到解决，看起来又具备了吸引力。此外，目前流通盘中有 40% 被做空，这为股价反弹增添了燃料。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Lot of people bought $HIMS, 50-$70, so even at $22 with the regulatory issues cleared up, looks good again. And now there’s 40% of the float shorted to add fuel to the fire
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$HIMS 与 $NVO 和解合作，盘后大涨 37% 或引发逼空。
恭喜 $HIMS 的持有者，盘后股价回升 37%。 看来 $NVO 撤回了诉讼，并与 $HIMS 合作销售 NOVO 品牌的 GLP-1（胰高血糖素样肽-1）药物。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 70 美元，且一度成为被做空最多的股票之一。 看到因利好消息引发的逼空行情（Short Squeeze）我并不感到惊讶。
英文原文
Congrats to the $HIMS holders, stock back up 37% after hours. It looks like $NVO dropped the lawsuit and partnered with $HIMS to sell NOVO branded GLP-1s. Given HIMS was once trading at $70 and became one of the most shorted stocks. Would not be surprised to see a short squeeze off the positive news.
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看好LITE和COHR，受NVDA注资及Google资本支出扩张驱动。
它们现在的定价非常合理，我预计像 $LITE 这样的公司明年股价可能会达到 1000 美元以上。它们每家都刚刚从 $NVDA 获得了 20 亿美元的新增注资，且估值远高于当前股价，同时现在正获得数十亿美元的标普指数被动资金流入。因此，除了今天 AH 对 MM 的压制/小动作外，这在结构上为光子学(Photonics)板块带来了巨大的顺风。如果查看 Google TPU 的物料清单(BOM)，$LITE 约占 8-12%，而 Google 仅在今年的资本支出(capex)就大幅扩张（例如约 1800 亿美元）。我很确定这两家公司的 2028 年远期市盈率(fwd p/e)都在 20 年代中期或 30 年代初期，考虑到它们的增长（$COHR 业务全面，$LITE 在光电路交换(OCS)领域具有垄断地位），这是合理的。
英文原文
They're really well priced right now, and I expect companies like $LITE to probably end up $1000+ next year. Each of them just got $2B each in new funding from $NVDA at way higher share values and now have billions in S&P index passive inflows. So this is structurally a large tailwind for the photonics sector, minus AH MM pinning/shenanigans today. If you look at Google TPU BOM $LITE is ~8-12% of it and Google's expanding capex enormously this year alone (eg. ~$180B). Pretty sure both of them have 2028 mid ~20s or low 30s fwd p/e, which makes sense given their growth ( $COHR does everything, $LITE OCS monopoly).
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认为$COHR已计入标普500资金流入，入场可能偏晚。
@Sam_Badawi 我觉得你可能已经错过 $COHR 的入场时机了。那根巨大的 0.076% 的K线可能已经计入了标普500指数新增的数十亿美元流入资金。
英文原文
@Sam_Badawi Think you might be late to $COHR. That large .076% candle might have already priced in the few billion of new inflow from the S&P 500.
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COHR和LITE因纳入标普500指数，盘后大幅反弹。
市场对两家领先的光子学(Photonics)公司发布的突发新闻感到兴奋。 由于它们现在被纳入标普500指数(S&P 500)： $COHR 受此消息影响大幅上涨 .047%。 此前该股今日曾下跌 7.12%。 $LITE 受此消息影响上涨 1.27%。 此前该股今日曾下跌 14.19%。 这真是一次抛物线式的盘后反弹。
英文原文
Markets are excited about breaking news from the two leading photonics companies. As they are now included in the S&P 500: $COHR is up massive .047% on the news. This follows a 7.12% drop today. $LITE is up 1.27% on the news. This follows a 14.19% drop today. This is truly a parabolic after-hours rally.
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澄清$ORCL与OpenAI合作计划正常，指出彭博报道误导。
@owenli25 新发布的新闻称，$ORCL 与 OpenAI 在“星际之门(Stargate)”项目上的计划仍按原定轨道推进。 看来彭博社(Bloomberg)的报道连续第二天产生了误导。 https://t.co/wRTrJCXkM2
英文原文
@owenli25 New news got published saying $ORCL plans with OpenAi remain on track with stargate. Looks like Bloomberg reporting was misleading for a second day in a row https://t.co/wRTrJCXkM2
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AI板块因OpenAI消息大跌，但META介入带来特定个股买入机会。
说实话，彭博社的标题竟然连续第二天导致半导体市场崩盘，这确实令人印象深刻。 $LITE 下跌 14.4% $NVDA 下跌 3.5% $TSM 下跌 4.4%。 消息是 Oracle 和 OpenAI 没有扩大其 Stargate 项目的一部分。 这看起来比昨天的报道更可信，因为 OpenAI 的“传染效应”正在蔓延。 但在文章最底部，他们补充道： $META 将介入并考虑从开发商 Crusoe 那里租赁位于德克萨斯州阿比林的规划扩建场地。 这看起来像是特定个股的买入机会，因为 AI 交易的范围现在已经远远超出了 OpenAI，并且现在由从 $GOOGL 到 $META 的盈利超大规模云服务商提供资金支持。
英文原文
It’s honestly impressive Bloomberg titles have managed to crash the Semi Market for a second day in a row. $LITE down 14.4% $NVDA down 3.5% $TSM down 4.4%. On the news that Oracle and OpenAI are not expanding a part of their Stargate project. This looks more legitimate than yesterday’s report as the OpenAI contagion is spreading. At the very bottom, they left added: $META, to step in and consider leasing the planned expansion site in Abilene, Texas, from developer Crusoe. This looks like a buying opportunity for specific names, as the AI trade has expanded far beyond OpenAI now and is now funded by profitable hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $META.
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博主引用推文，讽刺IREN融资申报为共产主义宣传。
@daniel_koss 我最喜欢这一条，它称 $IREN 的 60 亿美元 ATM（自动取款机融资）申报是共产主义宣传。https://t.co/tfVo9AWJZM
英文原文
@daniel_koss This one is my favorite for saying the $IREN $6B ATM filing is communist propaganda. https://t.co/tfVo9AWJZM
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建议做多与谷歌有协议的电力股，避免稀释抛压。
@eddyluxe_ 如果存在电力需求，做多与谷歌(Google)有协议的 $WULF 或 $CIFR 可能是更好的主意。 这避免了 60 亿美元的新股稀释，以及在任何反弹中对你不利的抛压。
英文原文
@eddyluxe_ If there’s a demand for power, might be a better idea to long $WULF or $CIFR that have agreements with Google. It comes without a $6B new share dilution, and all that selling pressure against you in any rallies.
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批评某人在多只股票中稀释散户，认为其毫无信誉。
@Mr_Derivatives 鉴于他通过 $BKKT、$ASST 以及现在的 $IREN 将散户持仓稀释至零的过往记录，此人已毫无信誉可言。
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives Given his track history of diluting retail to zero with $BKKT, $ASST, and now $IREN, the guy has zero credibility anymore.