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@MontagueCap CPO（共封装光学）一切都还处于极早期阶段。所有像$LITE这样的光学公司，从可插拔光模块超级周期发展至今，现在已达到数百亿美元规模。 CPO的规模将远超大量现有预测，而像$SIVE、MSSCorps这样的公司目前还在10亿美元规模左右。
英文原文
@MontagueCap Anything CPO is EXTREMELY early. All the optical companies from the pluggable supercycles like $LITE are now in the tens of billions. CPO will dwarf a ton of projections, and companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range.
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回顾自己提前抓住多轮超级周期
去年我提前点出了 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 和 Innolight…… 今年： 我找到了 $SOI，也就是 SiPH substrate，相当于 $AXTI。 然后又找到了 $SIVE，也就是 laser chokepoint。
英文原文
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
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认为 2.5% 稀释只是为纳斯达克上市筹资
@hcnyl0819 这就是为了纳斯达克上市融资的 2.5% 微不足道稀释。 和字面意思的稀释不同，这其实是一个非常看多的事件。
英文原文
@hcnyl0819 This is literally the 2.5% microscopic dilution to get funding for NASDAQ listing for $SIVE. It's a highly bullish event contrary to the word dilution.
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认为被设计出局是短期必然
@Belisapata 短期看，它们在未来一代里大概率会被设计出去。
英文原文
@Belisapata Short term, they’re going to get designed out in future gens.
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夸了一张照片很好看
@BladeKn68770654 我在那张照片里看起来真不错。谢谢分享！
英文原文
@BladeKn68770654 I look really good in that photo. Thanks for sharing!
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CPO市场将迎抛物线式增长，是最佳早期布局机遇
以防你们想知道我为什么对CPO（共封装光学）如此看好。比如$SIVE（激光器）、Shunsin（封装）、MSSCorps（良率）、Win Semi/$TSEM（晶圆代工）。\n\n"CPO市场预计从2026年到2030年将以142%的复合年增长率强劲增长（不含ELS）"\n\n"规模扩展CPO细分市场预计将在2030年前超过规模扩展应用，成为主导市场。\n\n未来几年将呈现近乎抛物线式的增长。\n\n许多像Sivers这样的厂商之前对800G可插拔光模块几乎没有实质性敞口，但却是CPO领域最前沿的激光器供应商领导者。\n\n这是由$NVDA和$AVGO驱动的下一代光学超级周期中最好且最早的机遇之一。
英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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回忆和对方以前的趣事
@Neat_Lama 是啊，过去那些日子很有趣！谢谢，也希望你一切都好。我会一直记得你冰箱上的那张有趣便签。
英文原文
@Neat_Lama Yeah old days were fun! Thank you, hope you’re doing well too. I’ll always remember that fun note on your fridge.
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抱怨自己账号太大，不能再随口提人
我讨厌我的账号变得这么大。现在我不能再随便提另一个人了，不然他们就会多 1000+ 粉丝或者在算法里爆掉。 现在到处都是人编造我没说过的话。
英文原文
I hate it that my account got so big. That I can’t mention another person anymore without them gaining 1K+ followers or going viral in the algo. Now endless people just make up stuff and bait me into replying…
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对 Spirit Airlines 退市感到可惜并顺带谈监管
我还是不敢相信 Spirit Airlines 要倒了。 这很糟，因为现在更少人有动力去压成本了。 封锁 $ARM 和 $NVDA 收购案和真的去保护竞争，是两回事。
英文原文
Still can’t believe Spirit Airlines is shutting down. Very harmful, now there’s less incentives to cut costs. There’s a difference between blocking $ARM and $NVDA acquisition (actual antitrust). And an Airline rescuing Spirit from bankruptcy. Thanks Senator Warren. https://t.co/BTn9D61eek
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嘲讽Bernstein的$35目标价错误，机构唱空却在暗中做多，散户不应盲从机构预测。
我在1月份就说过Bernstein给$INTC定$35目标价简直是个小丑。他们只会乱给目标价。散户恐慌抛售正是他们的有意目的。而其他机构却在悄悄做多（从$SOI就能看出）。现在你读这些报告唯一的原因，就是从中寻找之前没有公开过的细微信息。然后自己推导市值预期。英特尔现在$100，在他们给$35目标价之后。机构不是你的朋友。
英文原文
I called out Bernstein for being a clown when they gave $INTC a $35 price target in Jan. They just slap dumb PTs. Retail panic sells as an intended consequence. While the other institutions silently go long (as seen with $SOI). Only reason you should read these anymore is for any nuances they drop that wasn’t public before. Then derive your own MC projection. Intel is now $100 after their $35 PT. Institutions are not your friends.
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不看好控股公司相对 NAV 的定价
我不喜欢 SK Square。控股公司之所以会折价 NAV，是有原因的，因为没有什么好办法去逼它们把资产做套利。 这也正是 Grayscale 那类持仓和其他控股公司经常被折价的原因。
英文原文
Not a fan of SK Square. Holding companies trade under NAV for a reason since there's no good way to force an arbitrage on their assets. That's exactly why Grayscale holdings and others were traded under NAV of their crypto assets in the past. Better to just long Sk Hynix itself.
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认为监管不是增强竞争，而是直接禁止竞争
@MacnBTC 这不是更多监管，而是直接禁止竞争。 大家不理解 clarity act 的细节，这其实是 heavily favored bank lobbyist bill。 它的设计目的就是让人根本没法竞争。
英文原文
@MacnBTC It’s not more regulation, it’s an outright ban on competition. People don’t understand the nuances of the clarity act, heavily favored bank lobbyist bill. It’s designed so banks can maintain the garbage status quo of 2 day $3 ach and .05% interest checking accounts.
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批评 Armstong 为了牌照出卖散户
@OriginalRollo 挺可悲的，@brian_armstrong 为了拿到自己的银行牌照，居然去反对 yield ban。 却根本不在乎真实散户。
英文原文
@OriginalRollo Pretty pathetic @brian_armstrong fought the yield ban for leverage on getting their own banking charter approved. Without actually giving a **** about actual retail audiences.
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批评Coinbase获批后表态虚伪，指行业被出卖散户遭殃。
$COIN只有在他们获得附带条件的银行宪章批准之后才会说这种废话。 看到整个行业在本届政府手下被出卖，真的很可悲。 你们就享受那0.05%的活期存款利率吧，而传统银行却能赚取4%的利差，狠狠地薅每个美国散户的羊毛。 本来还以为我们终于能看到一些积极的改变。
英文原文
$COIN only says this crap after they got their conditional banking charter approved. Pretty sad to see the entire industry get sold out under this administration. Enjoy your .05% checking account interest while traditional banks profit a 4% spread shafting every day US retail. Had hopes we’d actually see some positive change.
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说自己仓位太多，没法一一提到
@GagHendo007 因为我有 16 个以上的名字都涨了 100%+，要提的 ticker 太多了。
英文原文
@GagHendo007 Because I have 16+ names that are all up 100%+ and there’s too many tickers to mention.
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祝贺对方单月 56% 回报
@YabbaDabba1x 听到这个很高兴！单月 56% 回报太厉害了，恭喜。
英文原文
@YabbaDabba1x Glad to hear! 56% 1M returns are amazing, congrats.
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承认自己还持有 AXTI，即使已经巨亏后翻倍
@Ishaaaqq 回答这个问题时，我到现在还持有 $AXTI，即使它后面已经带来 1378% 的未实现收益。 https://t.co/yOxz7KGN9a
英文原文
@Ishaaaqq To answer that question I’m still holding positions like $AXTI even after 1378% unrealized gains later. https://t.co/yOxz7KGN9a
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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说自己把一个人静音是因为他总传播假消息
@zhamvest @zizonchain @Plaskpojken 不，起初我只是把那个人静音，因为他的观点很烂，而且事实证明总是错的。 后来就变成了为了流量而传播假消息。
英文原文
@zhamvest @zizonchain @Plaskpojken No, at first I muted the guy because his opinions are trash and turn out wrong. Then it just turned into disinformation for clout chasing.
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总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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解释屏蔽Moody的原因，强调与专业人士合作研究SIVE
不，我屏蔽Moody是因为他们靠散布我告诉他们的某个名字的虚假信息来建立粉丝群体。我是和@Plaskpojken一起研究$SIVE的论点，不是和一些用猫图片的随机家伙。
英文原文
@zizonchain No, I blocked Moody because they build their entire following spreading disinformation that they told me about a name. Worked on $SIVE thesis with @Plaskpojken, not some random guy with a cat picture. https://t.co/jekBxsDgNy
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认为收费看股的服务大多只是因为想法不够好
我越来越确信，那些收 200 或 2000 美元，才给你看股票 pick 的人，多半只是因为自己的想法不够好。 不然他们完全可以直接把这些想法公开做多。
英文原文
I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks. Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough. Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire. This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.
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对别人订阅收入表示祝贺，并说自己不靠订阅费
@jwilliams_ttu10 听到这个我很开心！对，我不需要那些订阅费，它只是个挺有意思的验证，说明我的想法值得被听。 恭喜。
英文原文
@jwilliams_ttu10 That makes me happy to hear! Yeah I don’t need any of the subscription fees, it’s just a fun validation that my ideas are worth listening to. Congrats
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揭示机构借媒体打压股价后建仓的套路，批评机构非散户友军。
$SIVE是一场从瑞典本地投资者到美国投资者的巨额财富转移。本地人等待了很多很多年，期待所有激光研发能在共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(silicon photonics)上得到回报。但现在随着超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的量产出货在2026年下半年至2027年上半年，他们却得不到任何上涨收益，因为在信任当地媒体后把股票转让给了美国/西方投资者。我的预测是，如果Sivers在纳斯达克达到40-80亿美元，我们会看到同样的媒体待遇。然后股票又从美国散户转移到美国机构。你已经在这场底部看到了同样的剧本，比如$IQE和$SOI...当时机构发布"研报"说Soitec被高估了。一个月后股价涨了3倍，因为摩根士丹利恰好买入$SOI流通股的6.5%...或者Point72买入$IQE。机构不是你的朋友。不过我是在为散户的最佳利益着想。
英文原文
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
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说自己揭穿了氦气危机的恐慌论
@Astrabiene 我当时就把那个“氦气危机”的胡扯戳穿了，别人还在让大家因为这个 panic sell。 https://t.co/jU3PrI3D1m
英文原文
@Astrabiene I called out the “Helium crisis” BS while others were telling people to panic sell based off of it https://t.co/jU3PrI3D1m
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作者两个月前逆势做多$EWY，现在浮盈约3倍，证明自己判断正确。
两个月前所有人都在唱空 $EWY。 称其为“白银崩盘”或“高丽指数泡沫”。 现在他们全都改口，说自己一直看多存储器。 即便从 $RPI 到 $SIVE 的恐惧发帖不断，我的论点最终还是正确的。 我能积累24.5万+粉丝的主要原因，是我对自己的观点始终保持一致性且立场坚定。 我的 $EWY 多头仓位现在浮盈约3倍。 （引用内容）： 感觉所有人都在唱空韩国综合指数（KOSPI），说： > “看看这图表，它不可能一直涨下去！” > 存储器是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 要等3年才能交付预订单） > $EWY 基本就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，不能代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨。 > 存储器需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争就消失，只是会变得更贵。 > 原油/LNG能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云厂商，不会被运营费用吸收。 这看起来是恐惧抛售和去杠杆化（3倍杠杆ETF和10倍可能已被清洗），而不是实质性运营问题（略有 bearish 阻力，但不至于 -30%）。 SK海力士期货现在市值交易区间在$300B 高位到 $400B 低位。 如果 $MS 和更新的分析师预期即使略微正确，SK海力士的营业利润例如将达到约$300B。 到2028年他们将坐拥大量现金储备，即使存储器价格下跌也不怕。（甚至还没考虑需求变成结构性）。 这看起来又是另一个DeepSeek-Nvidia式的恐惧抛售情形，尤其是在nand/dram价格最近再次调涨之后。更像是底部时机的把握问题。 像这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的标题党抛售更重要。
英文原文
Everyone was doomposting $EWY 2 months ago. Calling it “Silver Crash” or “KOSPI crash bubble” Now they’re all flip flopping opinions, saying they were bullish memory all along. Even despite fear posting from $RPI to $SIVE, my thesis ends up right. Main reason I got 245K+ followers is because I’m consistently right about my opinions while taking a firm directional stance. My $EWY longs are now up ~3x.
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祝贺别人突破 100 万收益
@Michael13277144 听到这个我真的很开心，恭喜你突破 100 万美金！这绝对是个大里程碑。
英文原文
@Michael13277144 Makes me really happy to hear that. congrats on hitting $1M+! It’s definitely a big milestone
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用一句话嘲讽“堵堵看”的政策
“要打破封锁，先封锁封锁本身。” 等等，这真的奏效了？ https://t.co/QC7QEiuBAk
英文原文
"To unblock a blockade, one must blockade the blockade" Wait this is actually working? https://t.co/QC7QEiuBAk
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认为 RDDT 在大盘软件社媒里最有吸引力
@Rumbourbon23 在更大市值的软件 / 社交媒体板块里，没有什么比 $RDDT 更有吸引力了。
英文原文
@Rumbourbon23 There's nothing more compelling in the larger cap software/social media bucket than $RDDT
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六周后终于被 RDDT 证明了自己
终于在六周后证明了我做多 $RDDT 是对的。 有意思的是……它在那次爆炸性财报和指引后，YTD 还是跌了 28%。 我个人还是觉得它很有吸引力。
英文原文
Finally vindicated on my $RDDT long 6 weeks later. Funny thing is… It’s still down 28% YTD after that absolute blowout of quarter earnings and projections. Personally think it heads back to $200+ over time (repricing doesn’t happen in a day) since it’s a growing money printer.