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前花旗分析师爆料卖方数据造假，其合伙人却重仓做空HIMS。
千真万确：前几天我和一位前花旗(Citi)卖方分析师共进午餐。他告诉我，他们凭空捏造数据，以便在公司活动和投资者晚宴上与大家相处融洽。不幸的是，他们的合伙人对 $HIMS 做空超过45亿美元，而人们都知道其目标价(PT)是胡扯。
英文原文
True story: I had lunch with a former Citi sellside analyst the other day. He told me they pull numbers out of thin air so they can get along better at the corporate events and investors dinners. Unfortunately their partners are short $4.5B+ on $HIMS and ppl know the PT is bs
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三次降息未完全定价，小盘股仍有上涨空间。
@LibertadEterno 目前进展顺利。市场尚未完全计入三次降息预期，因此罗素2000指数(Russell 2000)和小盘股仍有上涨空间。https://t.co/GYsPTKvfdK
英文原文
@LibertadEterno So far so good. 3 rate cuts still haven't been priced in yet so Russell and small caps should have more time to go up. https://t.co/GYsPTKvfdK
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建议卖出周度备兑看涨期权，因近期无股息催化剂。
@soulbiri1 另外，除非股价进一步反弹，否则我会卖出行权价为 $95-$100 的周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，因为下个月之前没有股息催化剂。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Also I'd sell weekly covered calls on them at $95-$100 strike unless it rallies more since there's no dividend catalyst for another month
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博主调侃粉丝盲目跟风推荐ABAT股票，结果一语中的。
盲目信任第二轮粉丝推荐 $ABAT。你们真是笑死人了，完全说中了。https://t.co/aPFdgGjbfH
英文原文
Blindly trusting another follower round 2 $ABAT. You guys are hilariously spot on. https://t.co/aPFdgGjbfH
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更正股息发放日期为11月12日，暂停更新。
搞错了股息发放日期，是11月12日而不是10月。保留这条推文，但下个月之前不再添加更多内容。
英文原文
Got dividend date wrong, it's November 12th instead of Oct. Keeping this anyway but not adding more until next month.
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博主回应粉丝对其推荐股票组合表现良好的反馈。
@__visionxry__ @soulbiri1 那是我推荐的一篮子股票！很高兴看到它对你很友好 :)
英文原文
@__visionxry__ @soulbiri1 That's a basket of stocks I recommended! Glad to see it's treating you well :)
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博主在 $TGT 5年低点买入看涨期权，预期机构将因高股息而囤积。
正在对 $TGT 看涨期权进行成本平均操作，头寸规模约 10 万美元。我也持有 100 美元行权价的期权，但风险更高。该股股息率很高，且股价处于 5 年低点，因此我确信机构会大量囤积。 https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ
英文原文
Cost averaging $TGT calls to ~$100k in positions. Have $100 strikes as well, but it's more risky. It's a high paying dividend with the stock at 5y lows, so I'm sure institutions would stock up. https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ
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博主幽默回应粉丝互动，表达开心心情
@soulbiri1 哈哈，这让我今天心情大好
英文原文
@soulbiri1 lol this made my day
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买入NFE并看好AI对能源股的催化作用
@SaiPhan94570565 谢谢，刚刚刚买了 2 万美元的 $NFE。主要问题是债务，但预计的三次降息将有助于降低其浮动利息。AI 消耗也是能源公司（如 $VST 或 $CEG）的一个很好的催化剂，值得一赌。https://t.co/skI1qMblls
英文原文
@SaiPhan94570565 Thanks bought $20k just now of $NFE. Main issue was debt but projected 3 rate cuts will help reduce their floating interest. AI consumption is a great catalyst for energy companies too for like $VST or $CEG, worth a gamble. https://t.co/skI1qMblls
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看好稀土及AI矿企，对比REMX、MP、UURAF等标的。
鉴于中国的地缘政治风险，我确实看好稀土。特朗普也部署了50亿美元以加速采矿。我在考虑$REMX或$MP的看涨期权，但$UURAF看起来也很有前景，我会进一步研究。我看到的最大缺点是它以加元(CAD)计价。我不太喜欢$NAKA或折价交易(under NAV)的控股公司。Grayscale曾长期折价交易。是的，我之前就知道$BITF。我只是更喜欢$NBIS，但那里有很多其他正在转向AI的矿企。谢谢推荐。
英文原文
I do like Rare Earth given geopolitical risk with China. Trump is also deploying $5B to accelerating mining. I was thinking $REMX or $MP calls, but $UURAF looks promising too, I'll look into it more. Main downside I see is that it's CAD. Not much of a fan of $NAKA or holding companies under NAV. Grayscale was under NAV for the longest time. Yeah I knew about $BITF before. I just liked $NBIS more but there's tons of other miners pivoting to AI out there. THanks for the recs
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调侃持仓数量，建议长期持有RKLB对标SpaceX。
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN，要是算上这些，我就有16、17、18只持仓了，哈哈。至于 $RKLB，就拿着它5-8年吧，总有一天市值会像 SpaceX 一样达到3500亿美元。
英文原文
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN, and would be 16 17 18 lol. For $RKLB just hold it for 5-8 years, should be $350B market cap like SpaceX one day.
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博主寻求高确信度小盘股推荐，拟投入10万美元以上进行深度研究。
正在挖掘具有10倍以上上涨潜力且势头正劲的小盘股。如果大家对以下股票有基于理由的高确信度，我将投入10万美元以上： $APLD（市值50亿）、$CIFR（48亿，继$IREN上涨后） _ $ONDS（19.9亿）、$NVTS（13亿）、$MVST（10亿）或其他推荐 真心求问，非投资建议——只是在寻找深度研究(DD)线索
英文原文
Exploring small caps with 10x+ upside and gaining traction. Will throw $100k+ at some if people have high conviction with a reason: $APLD (5B), $CIFR (4.8B) after $IREN run _ $ONDS (1.99B), $NVTS (1.3B), $MVST (1B), or other recs Genuinely asking, not advice — just DD-hunting
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回复用户提及对冲策略
@moonman6577 对冲
英文原文
@moonman6577 Hedging
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批评忽视流通盘解锁的技术分析，指出CRCL估值过高适合做空。
我们同意市场是非理性的——但你的阅读理解能力跟你的技术分析(TA)一样糟糕。你漏掉的要点是：当技术分析(TA)忽略流通盘(float)和基本面时，它毫无用处。如果像 $BULL 那样，1%的流通盘驱动市值而99%后续解锁，图表分析就不重要了。我提到的唯一估值点是：如果 $CRCL 交易价格超过 $COIN 的一半，它就是一个很好的做空标的，因为利息收入是五五分成。我对 USDC 看涨，但 Circle 今天 $200 的估值应该高于 Coinbase 的一半。总之，在忽略100多亿美元解锁和收入分成的情况下画技术分析图表，并用“市场非理性”来辩解，正是亏掉粉丝金钱的方式。
英文原文
We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA. The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter. The only valuation point I made was that $CRCL is a great short if it ever trades above 1/2 of $COIN, since interest income is split 50-50. I’m bullish on USDC but Circle at $200 today would be worth more than half of Coinbase. Anyway, drawing a TA while ignoring 10B+ in unlocks & revenue sharing and justifying it by saying "markets aren’t rational” is exactly how to lose your followers money.
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SMCI 正在关注相关动态。
@gurgavin $SMCI 正在认真做笔记。
英文原文
@gurgavin $SMCI is taking notes
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CRCL受流通盘限制估值虚高，解禁后回归基本面，建议做空CRCL做多COIN。
吐槽：这张 $CRCL 图表很好地说明了为什么技术分析(TA)意义不大——基本面更重要。 当人们在 IPO 时发布 $BULL 的技术分析时，我正在做权证套利并翻白眼。BULL 从 10 美元涨到 70 多美元，但人们只在 1% 的流通盘中交易。当股份解禁时，BULL 跌回了 10 美元的 IPO 价。 对于 CRCL，我们看到从 31 美元 IPO 价涨到 200 多美元，因为人们在有限流通盘中交易，且市值几乎与 $COIN 相当（后者拥有加密货币交易所，并与 Circle 有 50% 的利息收入分成）。当 140 多万股 Circle 股份提前解禁时，价格暴跌回 130 美元。如果你看到 $CRCL 回到 200 美元，这是一个轻松的空 Circle 多 Coinbase 策略。 完整的 180 天禁售期在 12 月 2 日结束，两个月后你还有超过 100 亿美元的潜在抛压。我对 USDC 和 Circle/Coin 持看涨态度，但鉴于现有的商业模式，考虑到像 Tether 这样的稳定币业务通过利息收入赚钱，$CRCL 在今天 200 美元时价值超过 $COIN 的一半是没有道理的。 在即将到来的股份解禁面前，技术分析毫无意义。 教训：流通盘和基本面 > 图表上的线条。
英文原文
Rant: this $CRCL chart is a great lesson on why TA means very little - fundamentals matter more. When people were posting $BULL TA's at IPO, I was doing arbitrage between warrants and rolling my eyes. BULL went from $10 to $70+ but people were trading on 1% of float. When shares were unlocked, BULL went back to $10 IPO price. For CRCL, we saw the rally from $31 IPO price to $200+ because people are trading on a limited float and MC was almost the same as $COIN. (which has 50% interest revenue sharing with Circle on top of their crypto exchange) When 1.4m+ Circle shares had early unlock, the price crashed back down to $130. If you ever see $CRCL at $200, it's an easy short Circle long Coinbaes play. The full 180 day lock up is December 2nd and you have another $10B+ USD of potential selling pressure in two months. I am bullish on USDC and Circle/Coin but with the existing business model it doesn't make sense that $CRCL should ever be worth more than 1/2 of $COIN today at $200 given how Stablecoin businesses like Tether make money off interest income. TA doesn't mean anything with upcoming share lockups. Lesson: Float & fundamentals > lines on a chart.
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股价下跌必有因，如宏观风险或业绩利空，非无端波动。
@alc2022 仅仅因为你知识不足且无法解释，并不意味着股价下跌是“毫无理由”的。总是有原因的，比如宏观风险、空头持仓、期权流向、定价错误、业绩利空以及未来增长风险。
英文原文
@alc2022 Just because you don't know enough and can't explain it doesn't mean things go down "For no reason". There's always a reason like macro risk, short interest, option flows, mispricing, negative earnings, and forward growth risk.
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预测NBIS短期爆发后，长期走势或类似SMCI面临利润率与库存压力。
对于像 $NBIS 这样的股票，我会假设在一两年内，由于营收增长+前瞻潜力，会有一个巨大的催化剂推动其股价达到200美元以上。 然后它可能会像2-3年后的 $SMCI 一样，当局势稳定下来时，呈现高营收、低利润率，但随着大型科技公司部署由 $TSM 和 $AVGO 提供的自研芯片，面临库存风险和利润增长放缓。
英文原文
Stuff like $NBIS I'd just assume there's going to be a giant catalyst to $200+ in a year or two from revenue growth + forward potential. Then it might end up like $SMCI in 2-3 years when things settle down with high revenue, lower margins, but inventory risk and profit growth once all the big tech deploys their own chips with $TSM + $AVGO.
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按确信度排序：5年首选RKLB，短期回报潜力亦最高。
@junyongisusing1 如果我有5年的时间框架，按最高确信度排序会是 $RKLB，然后是 $BTC，最后是 $TSM。 这份列表只是我对未来几个月回报潜力从高到低的最佳猜测。
英文原文
@junyongisusing1 If I had a 5 year timeframe it would be $RKLB then $BTC then $TSM in terms of highest conviction. This list is just my best guess on return potential from highest to lowest in the next few months.
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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批评某博主不懂前沿股逻辑，警告勿做空无限风险股票。
他不傻，只是极度专注于生物科技领域，你应该关注他这方面的见解，而非其他领域。听了一些视频后，感觉他并不理解像 $RKLB 这样的前沿股票，且在做空“邪教式”股票方面给出了糟糕的建议。例如，对于 $RKLB，他未能理解中等载荷提升+Starlink/Flatlites服务潜力带来的回报潜力，而这些并未纳入他唯一关心的典型远期营收预测中。像 $QBTS 这类股票很烂，我只是说，做空具有无限亏损风险的“邪教式”股票是个极其愚蠢的主意。
英文原文
He's not dumb, he's just insanely specialized in biotech and that's what you should pay attention to him for, just not other things outside. It's just after listening to some videos, it doesn't seem he understands frontier stocks like $RKLB and gives bad advice on shorting cult stocks. For example, with $RKLB he doesn't quite get the return potential from medium lift payloads + service potential from Starlink/flatlites, which isn't baked into typical forward rev typical that he only cares about. Stuff like $QBTS is sht, I'm just saying that it's a really stupid idea shorting cult-like stocks with infinite losses.
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短期反弹预期20%，但长期竞争加剧难维持。
@truthdotphd 从10月到1月的短期反弹，没问题。+20%的回报。长期来看，来自Vuori、Alo等品牌的竞争过于激烈，恕我直言，股价难以维持多年。
英文原文
@truthdotphd Short term bounce from October to Jan, sure. +20% return. Long term, too much competition from Vuori, Alo, etc. wouldn't hold for many years imo.
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调侃对方期权交易风险失控。
@gglaccnt1313 哈哈，那些行权价/到期日的风险管控完全抛诸脑后，祝你好运。
英文原文
@gglaccnt1313 lmfao risk management out the window with those strikes/expiry but good luck.
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作者因看好TSM需求且担忧Lyft竞争，倾向重仓TSM而非Lyft。
我不喜欢追高，除非能明确看到未来几年会有疯狂的需求增长，比如 $TSM。 $Lyft 主要面向美国市场，我认为 Waymo 会随着时间的推移扰乱其市场份额。 即使股价在 $20 美元，它依然不错，但我更喜欢其他公司。如果我再有 100 万美元，我会直接投入 TSM 而不是 Lyft，因为我会加倍下注于我更有信心的股票。
英文原文
I don't like chasing unless it's clear it will go up with insane demand over the next few years like $TSM. $Lyft is mainly US market and I see Waymo disrupting market share over time. Even at $20 it's still a good but I like other companies better. If i had another $1M I'd just put that into TSM instead of Lyft since I double down on higher conviction stocks.
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作者认为 X 平台用户比 WSB 社区更聪明。
@gglaccnt1313 那只是针对华尔街梗图社区(WSB)的看法。从我所见，X 平台的用户通常更聪明。
英文原文
@gglaccnt1313 That's only for the regards on WSB. X users are typically more intelligent from what I've seen
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做空叙事失效，广告监管新闻对$HIMS无实质影响。
@himshouse 做空者的叙事逻辑站不住脚，因为超过42%的$SI（Silicon Motion Technology）和45亿美元以上的美元面临无限亏损的风险，随着HIMS增长并完成其在欧盟收购120万+更多客户的交易。关于措辞严厉的信件涉及广告的新闻对$HIMS没有实质性影响。
英文原文
@himshouse Short seller narratives since 42%+ SI and $4.5B+ USD is at risk of infinite loss as HIMS grows and completes it's EU acquisition of 1.2m+ more customers. The news about strongly worded letters about advertisements has no material affect on $HIMS.
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批评RKLB大规模减持，类比GME/AMC泡沫。
@beavinvests 抱歉，自 $GME 或 $AMC 持有者为公司向市场抛售股票而欢呼以来，我还没见过如此多的妄想。$RKLB 在公开市场上抛售 7.5 亿美元，对抗任何买盘压力，这并不是一件值得兴奋的事。
英文原文
@beavinvests Sorry but I haven't seen this much delusion since $GME or $AMC holders cheered that the company is dumping stock on them. Having $RKLB sell $750m on open market against any buying pressure is not something to be excited about.
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作者类比UPWK，认为ETOR低市值高增长被市场错杀。
回顾我的历史，我通常在底部买入，比如 $GOOGL，或在短期底部买入，比如当所有人都认为公司会失败时的 $UPWK。 $ETOR 类似于 $UPWK，拥有大量现金头寸且盈利。但它正以 $IBKR 20%+ 的年增长率增长，而市值却极低。 有时很难逆着市场情绪交易，但我认为市场对此定价错误。
英文原文
If you look at my history, I usually buy stuff at the very bottom like $GOOGL or short term bottom like with $UPWK when everyone thinks the company will fail. $ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap. Hard to trade against sentiment sometimes, but I do think market is pricing this wrong.
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博主调侃将关注新闻看是否会有印钞举动。
@MaximChistov @StockMKTNewz 哈哈，我当初是开玩笑说的，但现在我会关注新闻，看看他们是否会为你“印钞”。
英文原文
@MaximChistov @StockMKTNewz lol I said it as a joke but now I'll follow the news and see if they print for you.
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复盘 $ETOR 亏损，分析其基本面低估及潜在反弹机会。
我觉得 $ETOR 可能是我今年唯一一笔越补越亏的交易 😅。发布未实现亏损也很重要。 我想我在计算时没把 Cathie Wood 为 @ARKInvest 买入该股票的因素考虑进去，因为通常她进出时股价走势会相反。 但它拥有 7.567 亿+美元的净现金，36 亿美元市值，且盈利。 IBKR 似乎因以相似速度增长而受喜爱，但它常被与增长 40%+ 的 $HOOD 或 $BULL 比较。 不过它确实被低估了，~22% 的增长和 18 倍市盈率，市场定价错误。也许一旦 IPO 买家放弃，会有随机的 40% 反弹。
英文原文
I think $ETOR might have been my only cost-avg loss so far this year 😅. It important to post unrealized losses as well. I don't think I took into Cathie Wood buying up the stock for @ARKInvest into my calculations since stocks usually do the reverse when she enters/exits. But 756.7M million+ in net cash, 3.6B market cap, and profitable. IBKR seems to be loved growing at similar rates, but it's often compared to $HOOD or $BULL that's growing at 40%+. It's genuinely undervalued though at ~22% growth and 18 P/E and market is pricing this wrong. Maybe there will be some random 40% rally once IPO buyers give up.