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认同市场需借口上涨，认为沃什鹰派观点不会致白银大跌。
@gofallingknife 是的，我也这么想。有时市场只需要一个借口来继续上涨，我听过很多次这种说法。 我有关于沃什(Warsh)以及鹰派/美元类交易(hawkish/dollar type trades)的自己的论点，但这肯定不会导致白银下跌37%。
英文原文
@gofallingknife Yeah was thinking the same here. Sometimes markets just need an excuse to run on and I've heard that story being repeated a lot. I have my own thesis about Warsh and hawkish/dollar type trades but this would definitely not cause a 37% drop on silver.
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质疑做市商操纵白银市场暴跌以清洗期权链的说法。
@genZinvest0r 他们确实这么做了……但我不认为做市商(MMs)有那么大的权力能在几小时内让白银市场暴跌37%以清洗期权链。
英文原文
@genZinvest0r They did… but I don’t think MMs have that much power to drop the silver market 37% in a few hours to hose the option chain
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质疑沃什任美联储人选引发SLV闪崩的说法，认为市场早已定价。
我读过那篇文章，但觉得不太可信。我们早就知道沃什（Warsh）很可能成为下一任美联储人选，因为预测市场的概率约为80%。市场可能早已将这一预期计入价格，这不太可能导致 $SLV 出现37%的闪崩。
英文原文
I read about that and didn't think it true though, we already knew Warsh was likely to be the next fed pick way earlier because it was ~80% chance on prediction markets. Markets probably would have priced that in already and it probably wouldn't have caused a 37% $SLV flash crash.
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询问SLV闪崩原因
有人知道 $SLV 发生了什么吗？ 这次闪崩太疯狂了。 https://t.co/9nduvsnjFc
英文原文
Anyone know what happened to $SLV? This flash crash is wild. https://t.co/9nduvsnjFc
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光子学建设规模惊人，上游前驱体材料或成瓶颈。
@PhotonCap 绝对没错，当你将光子学(CPO)的建设与$ LITE等公司的预期增长进行映射时，人们就能直观地看到其规模有多么惊人。 但他们忽略了使这一切成为可能的上游前驱体材料，这也是我预计它将成为主要瓶颈的原因。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Absolutely, when you map the photonics buildout and projected growth with $LITE and others, people can just see how staggering it is. But they miss upstream precursors that make it all happen, which is why I’m expecting it to be a major bottleneck.
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作者补仓CRCL和NBIS，认为稳定币长期看好。
对我来说，这是一个非常棒的长线机会。我在 $CRCL 上亏了不少，所以我正在通过补仓来摊低成本。$NBIS 我的成本均价在 90 多美元，所以没什么痛苦。 唯一的变化是 $CRCL 面临 2-3 次降息带来的短期逆风。 最大的变化是《澄清法案》(CLARITY Act)，该法案禁止像 Coinbase 这样的交易所对稳定币支付利息（因为它与银行竞争，这简直太愚蠢了。我真不敢相信预测市场显示其通过概率约为 57%）。 话虽如此，USDC 供应量的增加将抵消利息收入的损失，而且稳定币在未来几年应该表现优异。
英文原文
For me it's an amazing long, I actually lost a lot on $CRCL so I'm cost averaging down. $NBIS my cost average was in the 90's so not really much pain there. Only things that have changed is $CRCL faces near term headwinds with 2-3 rate cuts. And the biggest thing is CLARITY Act which bans exchanges related to stablecoins like Coinbase from giving interest on top (because it competes with banks, which is just so, so stupid. I can't believe it's actually a thing that's likely to be passed ~57% on prediction markets). That being said, added USDC supply would offset interest income losses, and stablecoins should be great going forward over the next few years.
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对比AXTI与LPTH，认为AXTI具更高纯上行潜力
所以 $AXTI 是我找到的最接近 NAND/HBM 类型价格挤压交易（针对光子学）的标的。 $LPTH 是一个利用黑钻解决锗瓶颈的方案，更多是长期供应链向“美国制造”转型的举措。 风险水平和上行空间不同，但就纯上行潜力而言，我会保留 AXT。
英文原文
So $AXTI is the next closest thing to NAND/HBM type price squeeze play (for photonics) that I've found. $LPTH is a germanium bottleneck fix w/black diamond that is more of an long term supply chain pivot to Made in America over time. Different risk levels and upside but pure upside I'd maintain AXT.
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感谢指正关于BSOL股票的信息。
@DanielApfelbaum 你说得对，感谢指出关于 $BSOL 的问题。
英文原文
@DanielApfelbaum You're right thanks for pointing that out about $BSOL
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7N铟价创新高，AI需求致上游供应瓶颈显现，涨价在即。
7N铟价格在SMM上刚刚创下历史新高，且毫无放缓迹象。 $AXTI 的瓶颈正在实时上演。 西方超大规模云服务商似乎正在吸收用于AI建设的几乎所有磷化铟(InP)衬底和前驱体供应。 就像 $SNDK 和 $MU 一样，对于像AXT这样的上游供应商来说，这只是一场等待涨价（类似NAND）的博弈。 供应冲击似乎不可避免。
英文原文
7N Indium prices have just hit ATHs on SMM with zero signs of slowing down. The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time. Western hyperscalers appear to be soaking up every bit of the InP substrates + precursors supply for the AI buildout. Like $SNDK and $MU, it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices (like NAND). The supply shock feels inevitable.
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看好比特币财富转移逻辑，认为其终将涨至100万美元。
@nwongmd 在30岁以下人群中极受欢迎。财富转移（与 $HOOD 逻辑相同）流向下一代。有限供应，数字黄金。我认为 $1m 是必然的，问题是你愿意等多久（也许8年）。
英文原文
@nwongmd Extremely popular among age 30 and under. Wealth transfer (same thesis as $HOOD) down to next generation. Finite supply, digital gold. $1m seems inevitable to me, it’s how long you want to wait (like 8 years maybe)
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博主回顾早期加密持仓经历，称Solana仅为波段交易。
哈哈，我在 $RDDT 的一个帖子提到 $ETH 在 1600 美元时，后来它涨到了 4000 美元。 我是 $ETH 低于 90 美元和 $BTC 在几千美元区间时的早期加密货币持有者。 所以过去几年我经历了所有的周期。不过我通常不碰像 Solana 这样的东西，除非它大幅抛售。 对我来说这不是长期持有，只是波段交易。
英文原文
lol one of my $RDDT posts was $ETH at $1600 before it went to $4k. I’m an OG crypto holder at $ETH sub $90 and $BTC in the few thousand range. So I’ve been through all the cycles for the past few years. I normally don’t touch stuff like Solana though unless it sells off extremely hard. Not a long term hold for me just a swing trade.
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极度看好AXTI并净买入，因替代风险减持LPTH，因避免恐慌而谨慎发布卖出更新。
$AXTI 在我发布的股票组合中，我对它实际上极其看好，并且在这个价位我是净买入者。我会发后续帖子，但我只是看到铟（Indium）价格每天都在上涨。如果你看2027-2028年，光子学（Photonics）的扩张速度令人难以置信。我对其他股票如 $OSS 进行了减仓，因为它已经上涨了100%，但我仍然持有仓位。$LPTH 有一些关于更便宜的锗（Germanium）替代品的令人担忧的消息，所以我减少了一些仓位。我处于一种奇怪的境地，我需要诚实/客观，但我不喜欢发布看跌更新或当我卖出时，因为我不想传播恐慌。所以我倾向于谨慎，除非是非常重大的事件（如定向增发 ATM），否则我不发帖。上次我发帖说卖出 $IREN 时，接下来的几周我收到了大量的负面评论垃圾信息。
英文原文
$AXTI I’m actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I’ve posted and im a net buyer at these levels. I’ll make a follow-up post but I just see 7n indium prices increase every day. And the photonics ramp are incredible if you look at 2027-2027. I did take cut on others like $OSS, after a 100% rally but still hold positions. $LPTH there was some concerning stuff regarding cheaper germanium alternatives so I did trim some positions. I’m in a weird situation where I need to be truthful/objective but don’t enjoy posting bear updates or when I sell since I don’t want to spread panic. So I just lean on the side of caution by refraining from it unless it’s extremely material (like an ATM) Last time I posted about selling $IREN I had a flood of negative comment spam for the next few weeks.
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ETH日销毁量稳定，但相关公司资金流向实体产业。
@alejan119_ 现在每天大约有 22 枚 $ETH 被销毁。而像 $BMNR 这样的以太坊国库公司正将资金注入巧克力棒公司和私人飞机发动机领域。所以并不是 https://t.co/RrQfhNrZXl
英文原文
@alejan119_ There’s like a solid 22 $ETH burned a day now. And all the Ethereum treasury companies like $BMNR are funneling money into chocolate bar companies and private jet engines. So not really https://t.co/RrQfhNrZXl
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看好SOL反弹机会并计划逢低买入，同时考虑大幅增持CRCL和MSTR。
@hedgedwolf 我已经数不清看到像 $SOL 这样从 100-120 美元区间反弹至 165-185 美元的情况有多少次了。总之，我认为这是一个有吸引力的机会，如果它再下跌几个百分点，我可能会再进行一次平均成本买入(Cost Average)。我可能也会大量增持 $CRCL 和 $MSTR。
英文原文
@hedgedwolf Lost count of how many times I’ve seen stuff like $SOL bounce from $100-120 range to $165-$185. Anyway just saw this as an attractive opportunity, I’ll probably cost avg one more time if it drops another few percent. I’ll probably heavy add $CRCL and $MSTR to the list as well
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博主今日大幅加仓加密货币相关ETF及个股，试图抄底。
我今天最终将大量仓位轮动到了正在下落的加密货币“飞刀”上。 只是感觉从 $COIN 到 $SOL 的所有东西最近都跌得有点太多了。 - 比特币 $82.9k 通过 IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) 通过 $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) 通过 $LTCC - $COIN ($197) 希望我抄底抄对了时机。
英文原文
I ended up rotating a lot of my positions into the falling knife on crypto today. Just felt like everything has recent from $COIN to $SOL has crashed a bit much - Bitcoin $82.9k via IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) via $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) via $LTCC - $COIN ($197) Hope I timed the bottom correctly
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博主悼念用户@zephyr_z9
@zephyr_z9 安息
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 rip
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博主确认持有华邦电子股票。
@zephyr_z9 如果你指的是那家，我也持有华邦电子(Winbond)。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I also own Winbond if that was the one ur thinking about
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SanDisk聚焦AI致传统存储真空，群联与美光科有望填补。
我持有的、在 $SNDK 财报后有趣的受益者： 群联电子 (TPE: 8299) 和 美光科 (TPE: 2337)。 类似于南亚科 (1年涨幅 1,035.96%) 填补了 $MU、SK 海力士和三星留下的传统 DRAM 空白： 群联电子在闪存 (库存) 方面对 SanDisk 做同样的事。美光科则通过 MLC NAND (拥有晶圆厂) 填补空白。 所以这是另一个“传统空白”策略。 随着 $SNDK 将其 NAND 晶圆转向企业级 SSD 以聚焦 AI，群联/美光科看起来要填补这一真空。 特别是当 SK 海力士和三星停止生产 MLC NAND 以聚焦 HBM 时，这两家公司将成为传统存储领域的“最后幸存者”。 群联电子恰好拥有 2024/2025 年大量低成本 NAND 库存。 美光科正在增加 MLC NAND 产量以填补三星/SanDisk 转型留下的空白。 所以对于 SanDisk 留下的“南亚科 2.0”： 群联 = 巨大库存的价格套利 美光科 = MLC NAND
英文原文
Interesting beneficiaries post $SNDK earnings that I own: Phison (TPE: 8299) and Macronix (TPE: 2337). Similar to Nayna (1,035.96% 1Y) that filled legacy dram void from $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung: Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory). And Macronix with MLC NAND (owns wafer fabs). So another "legacy void" play. As $SNDK pivots their NAND wafers toward enterprise SSDs to focus on AI, Phison/Macronix looks to fill the vacuum. Esp. when Sk Hynix and Samsung stop making MLC NAND to focus on HBM, the "Last Man Standing" for legacy storage would be those two. Phison happens to be sitting on a massive stockpile of lower-cost NAND from 2024/2025. And Macronix are upping their MLC NAND production to fill the void from the Samsung/SanDisk pivot. So for Nanya v2 left by Sandisk: Phison = Massive stockpile price abritrage Macronix = MLC NAND
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持有SNDK和南亚科，涨幅超1000%。
@HelixCapital_ 可能是 SanDisk，但我没有明确倾向。我目前同时持有 $SNDK 和南亚科(Nanya)（在财报后买入 SanDisk，并将铠侠(Kioxia)作为 SanDisk 的代理标的)。它们自去年以来都上涨了 1000%+，所以很难抱怨。
英文原文
@HelixCapital_ Probably Sandisk but no firm opinion, I own both $SNDK and Nanya right now (ended up buying Sandisk after ER, but have Kioxia as Sandisk proxy) They’re both up 1000%+ since last year so hard to complain.
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闪迪Q3业绩大幅超预期，嘲讽500美元处做空者。
所有在$500做空$SNDK的空头现在能出来吗？ 我知道X上有一堆人。 闪迪(SanDisk)财报(Q3 ER)报告指引： - 销售额46亿美元 vs. 预期29亿美元 - 每股收益(EPS)13.00美元 vs. 预期4.21美元（哈哈这就是原因） https://t.co/QE1Mc57HRx
英文原文
Can all the $SNDK short sellers at $500 come out now? I know there were a bunch on X Sandisk ER Reported Q3 guide: - Sales $4.6B vs. est $2.9B - EPS $13.00 vs. est $4.21 (lol this is why) https://t.co/QE1Mc57HRx
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博主澄清供应链方向表述应为上游。
@wyle_khite @grok “沿着供应链向下(Down the supply chain)”在技术上是正确的，但我可能应该将帖子表述为“上游(upstream)”。
英文原文
@wyle_khite @grok "Down the supply chain" is technically correct, but probably should have worded my post as upstream.
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提及闪迪做空者，指出铠侠等将与其共享行业顺风。
@theodore_invest 我记得看到过一堆在 $500 做空 $SNDK 的做空者，哈哈。不过确实，铠侠(Kioxia)等公司将与闪迪(SanDisk)共享许多顺风因素。
英文原文
@theodore_invest I remember seeing a bunch of $SNDK short sellers at $500 lol. But yeah Kioxia and co will share a lot of the tailwinds with Sandisk.
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感谢博主提醒
@LouPariPassu 谢谢提醒
英文原文
@LouPariPassu thx for the heads up
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SanDisk 支付 Kioxia 制造费，财报或超预期但下游受益股低迷。
$SNDK：“SanDisk 将向 Kioxia 支付 11.65 亿美元，以获取制造服务及确保持续的供应保障”。 Kioxia 与 SanDisk 共同运营着全球规模最大的 NAND 闪存（NAND Flash）制造基地之一。 SanDisk 的财报看似会大幅超预期，但许多处于供应链下游的二级受益标的却表现低迷。
英文原文
$SNDK: "Sandisk will pay Kioxia USD 1.165 billion for manufacturing services and continued availability of supply". Kioxia and SanDisk together operate one of the world’s largest NAND flash manufacturing sites. Sandisk's earnings looks like a blowout, but many second order beneficiaries are down the supply chain.
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NBIS因ATM增发短期震荡，仍是看好标的但时机不佳。
就在这一刻，我的想法是 $NBIS 在第一季度可能会处于区间震荡(rangebound)，因为他们正在利用其2500万股的自动行使机制(ATM)增发，并在达到特定行权价时在场外市场抛售。它仍然是我最看好的多头标的之一，但就时机而言并非如此。我原本就不看好在 $138 可转债融资之后紧接着进行的第二次 ATM 增发。
英文原文
As of this exact moment, my thought was that $NBIS was probably rangebound for Q1 because they're tapping into their 25M share ATM offering right now and selling that on the open market when it hits a certain strike. It's still one of my favorite long ideas but timing wise not as much. I just was not a fan of the second ATM, right after the $138 convertible note funding.
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澄清CPSH军工应用细节，指出海军项目商业化程度高于弹头研发。
这些是高频交易(HFT)算法对我帖子的反应，每当我提到 $ETOR、$VPG、$LEU 等股票代码时，你们都能看到这种现象。 你说得对，我本应该把细微差别表述得更清楚。 我的观点是：国防/太空/工业领域的应用可以延伸至 -> AI。目前的营收数字较低，因为许多仍是研究合同，但它们是许多项目的独家供应商(sole source)。 以下是更正说明： - 美国陆军作战能力发展司令部(DEVCOM)与 $CPSH 签订了一份为期两年的合同，以验证 CPSH 专有的钨注塑工艺能否制造“可控破片”弹头。 - 关于黑鹰直升机(Hawk Helicopters)的信息来自其官网：“维持像 UH-60 黑鹰这样的传统机队，为引入新型材料提供了独特机会。除了提高系统性能和减轻重量外，现代化工作还必须考虑配置灵活性和简洁性，以支持多样化场景下的作战。” - 这是关于设计“新型装甲地板”的小企业创新研究(SBIR)，该地板提供弹道防护，并可应用于传统(UH-60)和未来垂直起降(FVL)旋翼机。 - 关于美国海军，这是其新闻稿的原话：“这些面板是先进弹道屏蔽组件的一部分，旨在支持美国海军航空母舰和其他水面舰艇的弹道防护系统升级。” 上述所有应用场景均为事实。其中，如美国海军战舰的应用相比钨“可控破片”弹头而言，商业化程度更高。
英文原文
These are HFT algorithms reacting to my posts, you see this with every ticker mention I do from $ETOR, $VPG, $LEU, and others. You're correct I should have worded the nuance better. The point was the applicationsfor Defense/Space/Industrial could be used for -> AI. The revenue numbers are low as many are still research contracts but they are sole source for many programs. This is the correction: - U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) had two year contract with $CPSH to see if CPSH’s proprietary injection molding process for tungsten can create "controlled fragmentation" warheads”. - For Hawk Helicators it was from their website "Sustaining legacy fleets, like the UH-60 Black Hawk, provides a unique opportunity to incorporate novel materials. In addition to improving system performance and reducing weight, modernization efforts must consider configurational flexibility and simplicity to support operations across diverse scenarios." - This was SBIR research to design a "novel armored floor that provides ballistic protection and which can be implemented in both legacy (UH-60) and future vertical lift (FVL) rotorcraft" - For US Navy, this was the quote verbatim from their PR: "The panels are an integrated component of advanced ballistic shields developed in support of ballistic protection system upgrades on U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers and other surface ships" All the applications usage above are true. Some, like US Navy Warships, are more commercialized compared to tungsten that can "controlled fragmentation" warheads”.
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反驳对Meta的唱空观点，指出其高增长和充足现金流足以支撑基建。
@hoiyeahhhh 我看到的唱空 $META 的帖子数量简直离谱。金融圈(X)的人(FinX)只是孤立地看待问题。 如果营收/自由现金流(FCF)在下降，那倒是另一回事，但像 Meta 这样的超大规模云服务商如何实现超过 30% 的同比增长，这太疯狂了。 他们有足够的资金来支持基础设施建设。 https://t.co/WqNBfktto2
英文原文
@hoiyeahhhh Amount of bear $META posts I’ve seen was crazy. FinX just look at things in a vacuum. If revenues/FCF were decreasing that would be another story but how is a hyperscaler like Meta growing over 30% Y/Y, that is crazy. They have enough to fund the buildout. https://t.co/WqNBfktto2
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通过铠侠间接持有闪迪，坦言看盘时有FOMO情绪。
@LouPariPassu 我通过铠侠(Kioxia)持有闪迪($SNDK)的敞口，但目前不直接持有闪迪股票。不过，看着每天的图表，我确实感到有些错失恐惧(FOMO)。
英文原文
@LouPariPassu I have $SNDK exposure via Kioxia, but don’t directly own Sandisk right now. I do feel a bit of FOMO though looking at the chart every day.
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反驳对Meta的看空观点，认为其高增长和资本支出回报强劲，看好股价上涨。
不明白为什么 FinX 对 $META 如此看空。他们给出的指引是 535 亿 -565 亿美元，高端意味着约 33.5% 的同比增长。这太疯狂了。人们曾引用 2026 年资本支出(Capex)指引 1150 亿 -1350 亿美元作为看空理由，而估算值约为 1100 亿美元。$META 即使在 1 万亿美元估值下，也再次像初创公司一样增长。很明显，无论资本支出花在哪里，都转化为了营收和未来自由现金流(FCF)的投资回报率，而非投入无底洞。我不惊讶于看到 Meta 在未来几周达到 800 美元以上。上次 BBB 财报（尽管同比增长 26% 并带来 100 多亿美元 FCF）纯粹是表面现象。而同样的 $META 叙事今天仍在被重复。当世界上有一半的人每天使用一家公司时，也许是时候重新思考你的头寸并做多(long)了。
英文原文
Not sure why FinX is so bearish on $META. They’re guiding $53.5B – $56.5B.High end is ~33.5% y/y growth. This is insane. People were citing 2026 Capex Guide: $115B – $135B as a bear case Where est. ~$110B $META is growing like a startup again even at a $1T valuation. It’s clear wherever capex spend is going, it’s delivered in revenue and future FCF ROI, not going into a black hole. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Meta at $800+ in the upcoming weeks. This was pure optics last time around with BBB earnings (even though they grew 26% Y/Y and delivered $10B+ FCF). And that same $META narrative is still being parroted today. When you have half of the world using a company daily, maybe it’s time to rethink your position and go long.
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解释HFT算法抢跑散户订单，并以此作为做多逻辑。
不，这些是高频交易(HFT)算法在对我发布的帖子做出反应，并抢先执行散户的买入订单流。有一半的时间这是真正的信息发现过程，价格会持续上涨。在这种情况下，这只是正常的信息综合，也是我建立多头头寸的原因。你可以清楚地看到，在我发布股票代码的那一刻，成交量出现了异常。
英文原文
No these are HFT algorithms reacting to my posts and frontrunning retail order buy flows. Half the time it’s genuine information discovery and it keeps going up. In this case this is just normal information synthesis and why I took a long. You can clearly see abnormal volume the moment I posted a ticker.