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  1. 个股论点 $SOUN

    SOUN 估值已充分反映,虽基本面稳健但上行空间有限。

    我对 $SOUN 的看法是,在 45 亿美元市值下,其极端溢价已 largely priced in(大幅反映在股价中)。 2.69 亿美元现金,无债务。但季度亏损 1450 万美元(1.05 亿美元只是 optics(表面现象/会计处理)),基于 1.7 亿美元远期营收(fw revenue)实现 68% 的同比增长表现尚可。 这是一个稳健的做多标的,但在 23 倍远期市盈率下上行空间有限。谁知道呢,我可能错了。

    英文原文

    My opinion on $SOUN is that it’s already largely priced in with extreme premiums at $4.5b. $269m cash, debt free. But $14.5M loss q/q ($105m is just optics), growing revenue 68% y/y off $170m fw revenue is decent. It’s a solid long but upside is more limited with 23x fwd sales. Who knows I could be wrong

  2. 个股论点 $ALMU$AXTI$POET$RKLB

    POET/ALMU因周期极早需等待,建议6个月后建仓POET。

    我对 $POET 和 $ALMU 的看法是,输入光互连(InP)的替代方案时间框架在2-3年,即2028-2029年。它们没有超大规模数据中心供应商(hyperscaler)的资质,也不在现代专用集成电路(ASIC)架构中,所以 $POET 提前了6个月,$ALMU 提前了1年。像 $RKLB 这样的散户宠儿通常也提前一年,但如果你等得够久,方向是对的。我可能会在6个月后买入 $POET,$ALMU 则更晚一些,但如果 $AXTI 的情况变得严重,它们可能会加速。所以两者都是很好的多头标的,只是由于处于周期极早期,这是一场等待游戏。

    英文原文

    My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029. They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early. Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough. I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked. So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle

  3. 个股论点 $AIRO$AVAV$MRVL$POET$RCAT$UMAC

    分析UMAC基本面优势,对比AIRO,认为两者均有上行空间。

    很棒的选择。$UMAC 是一个很好的长线标的。我之前研究时选择了 $AIRO,但很难得有一家市值 5.2 亿美元、拥有 1.33 亿美元现金且无债务、毛利率 40%、同比增长 55%+ 的制造商。它是通过 $RCAT 向 $AVAV 供货的供应商。类似于 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。因此上行空间很大,我个人仍然更喜欢 $AIRO,但各有所好!

    英文原文

    Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has - $133m cash, no debt - 40% gross margins - growing 55%+ y/y As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation. So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!

  4. 个股论点 $VVX

    分析$VVX估值偏低但增长慢,适合长线持有,作者因缺乏耐心未选。

    研究了 $VVX,看起来是个扎实的价值投资标的,但我的观点是它并非那种爆发力极强的“火箭股”选择。 - 8.5% 的毛利率(大宗商品属性),营收达 44.2 亿美元。但净利率仅为 1.8%。 - 鉴于其债务状况,10-11 倍的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)属于正常水平,因为其增长率约为 3%。 - 由于合并原因,净现金为 -9.8 亿美元。 所以超额收益(Alpha)来自于每股收益(EPS)的增长,我对此进行了研究,部分分析师预测其同比增长 24%。今年再降息 2-3 次带来的低利率环境也将对其大有帮助。 因此,如果你有两年的等待耐心,它似乎被低估了,但我更没耐心!

    英文原文

    Looked into $VVX, seems like a solid value invest but my option is that it’s not exactly a moonshot type pick - 8.5% gross margin (commodity status) but off $4.42B rev. But with 1.8% net margin - 10-11x fwd earnings is standard given its debt, since its growing ~3% - net cash is -$980m bc of their merger So the alpha comes in if it grows EPS which I’ve looked into and some analysts are projecting 24% y/y. Lower interest rates from another 2-3x rate cuts this year also helps them a lot. So seems undervalued if you have a 2 year waiting horizon but I’m more impatient!

  5. 个股论点 $MSTR

    作者持有MSTR多头,认为其估值修复且风险降低,但指出直接投资比特币更安全。

    是的,我持有多头 $MSTR。自从其市值接近净资产价值(mnav) 1倍以来表现不错。而且由于比特币国库公司最近未被从 MSCI 指数中剔除,风险已降低。 我从 $156 就开始持有,目前仍比高点下跌 60-70%+,在我看来是不错的反弹标的。但当然,直接投资比特币更安全,因为国库公司存在大幅低于 mnav 的风险,就像当年的 Grayscale 一样。

    英文原文

    Yeah I’m long $MSTR. It’s great since mnav went closer to 1 again. And it got derisked since Bitcoin treasury companies weren’t delisted from MSCI recently. I’ve been in it since $156, it’s still down 60-70%+ from highs and a good recovery play imo. But of course Bitcoin directly is a lot safer since risks are always there from treasury companies going way under mnav like Grayscale back in the day.

  6. 业绩复盘 $AXTI$CRDO$INTC$OSS$VLN

    博主分享近期选股大幅上涨,并征集5倍股研究标的。

    一月份太疯狂了。 毫不夸张,我的许多选股在过去几天涨幅超过60%。 图表中甚至没有包含 $AXTI +60% 或 $VLN +60%。 更不用说像 $CRDO 25%+ 或 Intel 25%+ 这样较小的涨幅。 如果需要更多5倍股的研究标的,如果你有想法或投资论点,请告诉我。 https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87

    英文原文

    January is wild. Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days. Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts. While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+. Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87

  7. 杂谈

    建议现在是去日本度假的好时机。

    @zephyr_z9 可操作的洞察:现在正是去日本度假的好时机。

    英文原文

    @zephyr_z9 Actionable insights: it’s now a great time for a vacation in Japan

  8. 个股论点 $SMCI

    作者买入SMCI并看多,认为高盛报告低估了其利润率扩张潜力。

    我也在$28.3美元买入了一些$SMCI。一直在做波段交易。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师报告充其量极其懒惰。SMCI将2026年的营收预期上调至360亿美元,同比增长超过50%+。这部分源于升级周期带来的硬件成本增加。但他们似乎不理解短期定价策略以锁定初始数字租赁承诺(DLC)周期,利润率会随时间扩张。他们认为预测的9.5%左右的毛利率是永久性的,但实际上它们应该会随时间增加。在我看来,这是一个很好的长线机会,我不同意其他分析师的观点。SMCI看起来定价错误。

    英文原文

    I bought $SMCI as well at $28.3 as well. Have been swing trading it. Goldman Sachs's analyst report extremely lazy at best. SMCI raised revenue growth over 50%+ to $36B revenue 2026. Part of that is increased hardware costs from upgrade cycle. But they don't seem to understand short term margin pricing to lock in initial DLC cycles, where margins expand over time. They think the forecasted gross margins like 9.5% is permanent, but they should increase over time. Great long here IMO, disagree with the other analysts. SMCI looks mispriced.

  9. 个股论点 $META$WMT

    对比META与WMT估值,指出市场存在定价错误。

    他们的广告业务正在增长 -> 自由现金流(FCF)足以支付任何资本支出(Capex)。上季度FCF超过100亿美元,但所有人却对支出感到恐慌。 $META 同比增长26%,远期市盈率(Forward P/E)为18.9倍。 $WMT 的增长与通胀持平,远期市盈率却超过40倍。 目前市场存在一些定价错误。

    英文原文

    They're growing ads -> FCF would pay for any capex. FCF was $10B+ Last quarter yet everyone was scared for their lives on spend. $META is growing 26% Y/Y and their forward P/E is 18.9X. $WMT is growing in line with inflation with a forward P/E of 40x+. There's just some mispricing in the market right now

  10. 方法论 $CVX$GOOGL$META

    分享利用期权杠杆捕捉大盘股波动以获取非对称收益的策略。

    好问题!中小盘领域并不总是存在极高Alpha/高确信度/非对称性的机会。 但如果我看到机会,即使是像 $META 这样的大盘股,我也会抓住。上次我这样做是在 $GOOGL 145美元时。 你也可以通过保证金/期权将低风险转化为高风险。 因此,如果正确判断雪佛龙 $CVX 2%的波动,由于期权未充分定价波动,回报可能达到30%。 在这种情况下,如果 Meta 下跌20-30%并通过期权反弹,那将是百分之几百的收益。

    英文原文

    Great question! There's not always an extremely high alpha/high-conviction/asymmetric opportunity out there in the small-medium cap world. But if I see an opportunity, even with big caps like $META, I'll take it. Last time I did was with $GOOGL at $145. You can also turn lower risk into higher risk with margin/options. So getting a 2% Chevron $CVX movement correctly might be 30% return since options don't price in much movement. In this case with Meta, if it sells off over 20-30%, and it rebounds with options, that would be a few hundred percent gain.

  11. 个股论点 $GOOGL$META

    Meta 资本支出叙事被高估,AI 投资回报率高,预期利润增长将扭转市场看法。

    我的观点是,在财报发布后的最初几秒内,$META 的下跌是一场算法闪崩,原因是 BBB 未被标准化(尽管 Meta 在所有方面都超预期)。 抛售发生后的几分钟内,新闻开始铺天盖地地报道 Meta 因资本支出“担忧”而下跌,而不是报道其业绩超预期。这成为了市场叙事。但事实上,即使有“疯狂”的支出,Meta 上季度仍产生了 106 亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)。 你说得对,分析师们忽略了这一点。但自那以后,维持 META 当前股价的是叙事/表象,而非数字(186 亿美元净利润)。 但我会说,这次的情况类似于当时所有人都说 $GOOGL 搜索业务正在消亡的时候。我记得在 145 美元时做多 Google,因为数据表明事实并非如此。 如果我们看现在的数据,所有人都在声称 $META 的资本支出(CapEx)失控(2025 年 720 亿美元,2026 年约 1000 亿美元),并将吞噬所有利润。 然而,$META 上季度以惊人的 26% 速度增长,因为他们自己的 AI 基础设施优化广告收入的回报率目前高于地球上几乎任何其他投资,所以我不认为他们需要给出其他答案。只需指向营收增长/净利润即可。 当每股收益(EPS)从 1.05 美元增长到预计的约 8.30 美元(季度跳跃 690%)时,我认为叙事将转变为他们的利润 > 资本支出。 分析师(Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush)一直给出 2026 年 800–1,100 美元的目标价(PT),有时只需要下一次财报带来的叙事转变。但我们将看看这是否正确。

    英文原文

    So my thesis was that during first few seconds, $META post-ER was an algorithmic flash crash from BBB not being normalized (despite Meta beating on all fronts). Minutes around the selloff, news started posting everywhere Meta was dropping due to capex "fears", rather than posting their earnings beats. And that became the narrative. But in reality, even with the "insane" spending, Meta generated $10.6B in FCF last quarter. You're right analysts look past that. But ever since then it became narrative/optics rather than numbers ($18.6B net profit) that kept META where it;s at now. But I'd say this time is similar to when everyone was saying $GOOGL search was dying. I remember entering Google longs at $145 because the numbers were saying otherwise. If we look at the numbers now, everyone is claiming $META CapEx is out of control ($72B in 2025, ~$100B in 2026) and will eat all the profits. Yet $META grew at astounding rates with 26% last quarter because the ROI on their own AI infra for optimizing ad revenue is currently higher than almost any other investment on earth, so I don't quite think they need an answer. Just point to revenue growth/net profit. And when they go from a $1.05 EPS to a projected ~$8.30 EPS (690% quarterly jump), I think the narrative will change that their profits > capex. Analysts (Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush) have are been giving $800–$1,100 PTs for 2026, sometimes all it takes is a narrative shift from their next er. But we'll see if this is right or not.

  12. 个股论点 $META

    META基本面强劲,当前低估值源于会计处理导致的表象问题,极具买入价值。

    $META 对我来说看起来是一个极具吸引力的买入机会,因为这似乎是一个光学(市场情绪/表象)问题,而非基本面问题。上个季度,他们实现了高达 186 亿美元的净利润,但由于一次性会计处理(BBB),报告的收益仅为 27.1 亿美元。尽管人们因 AI 资本支出(Capex)而对自由现金流(FCF)感到担忧,但从数字上看,他们依然拥有惊人的盈利能力。当人们看到在不进行税收正常化(Tax Normalization)的情况下,收入环比增长超过 700% 时,这种市场情绪应该会反向发挥作用。

    英文原文

    $META seems like a screaming buy to me, as this looks like an optics issue rather than fundamentals. Last quarter, they had a whopping $18.6B in net profit but reported $2.71B from BBB one time accounting. Everyone was fearful of FCF due AI capex but numbers wise they’re still wildly profitable. Should work in reverse with optics when people see a 700%+ q/q income growth when they don’t do tax normalization.

  13. 个股论点 $META

    认为$META盈利强劲,且走势与去年相似,核心在于市场对会计表象的反应。

    我认为这很大程度上是由于自由现金流(FCF)/盈利能力的会计表象,但 $META 简直是在印钞。 另外,如果我们看去年的“巫毒图表”(一种非正统的技术分析图表),它与去年10月至11月的下跌以及1月15日之后的反弹惊人地相似。当然,趋势图表分析都是假的,但有时确实有效。 但核心论点仅仅是市场如何对会计表象做出反应。

    英文原文

    It is, i believe it’s largely due to accounting optics regarding FCF/profitability but $META is just printing money. Also if we voodoo chart from last year, it looks shockingly similar with a drop from oct-> Nov and rally Jan 15th onward last year. Again, trend charting is all fake but they do work out sometimes. But main thesis is just how markets react to accounting optics.

  14. 个股论点 $GOOGL$META

    Meta盈利被会计手段掩盖,预计下季叙事反转。

    $META 的盈利能力简直惊人。但这只是叙事。 当我在 145 美元买入 $GOOGL 多头时,尽管数据表明事实并非如此,但所有人都说搜索业务正在消亡。 在 Meta 的案例中,他们正在疯狂印钞,而这只是表面现象。上个季度的净利润本应为 186 亿美元(大幅超预期),但由于“美好法案”(big beautiful bill)的影响,报告值仅为 27.1 亿美元。 我猜测,当他们在下个季度通过会计手段进行反向操作(reverse uno)以优化表面数据时,市场叙事将再次改变。 只是想发个帖子看看我的预测是否正确。

    英文原文

    $META is insanely profitable. That’s just narrative. When I bought $GOOGL longs at $145 everyone was saying search was dying even though numbers say otherwise. In Meta’s case they’re printing money and this is just optics. Net income last quarter would be $18.6B (large beat) but reported was $2.71B from big beautiful bill. My guess is when they play reverse uno, with accounting optics next quarter the narrative changes again. Just wanted to post to see if it turns out right

  15. 个股论点 $META

    因算法对EPS波动的反应及Q4季节性利好,在625美元加仓META。

    我在 $META 625美元处加仓了。 我的理论是: 《大而美法案》(Big beautiful bill) 搞砸了他们上次财报,尽管业绩超预期。 这引发了投机性的算法抛售,因为每股收益(EPS)看起来人为偏低(环比下降80%)。 下一次财报将反向运作。 第四季度(Q4)财报 -> EPS看起来人为偏高(例如环比增长700%+)-> 高频交易(HFT)算法买入股票。 Meta 同比增长26%,尽管资本支出(capex)巨大,但盈利能力极强。 第四季度的季节性因素(例如假日广告收入)也应该是一个助推器。 鉴于16日有大量未平仓合约(open interest)以及潜在的美伊冲突,很难精准抄底,但这里看起来是一个很好的多头(long)机会。特别是如果我想交易算法对会计因素(accounting alpha)反应带来的阿尔法收益。 听起来很蠢,但市场有时就是这样运作的,看重表象(optics)。我们看看是否正确。

    英文原文

    I added positions in $META at $625 My theory: Big beautiful bill wrecked their last earnings despite record beat. This caused an speculated algorithmic selloff from artificially low looking EPS (-80% drop) This works in reverse for next earnings. Q4 earnings -> EPS looks artificially high (eg. 700%+ q/q growth)-> HFT algorithms buy stock. Meta grew 26% Y/Y and is stupidly profitable despite any capex spend. Seasonality from Q4 (eg. Ad revenue from holidays) should also be a booster. Hard to bottom time given large open interest on 16th and potential Iran US conflicts, but looks like a great long here. Especially if I want to trade the accounting alpha in how algorithms react. Sounds really stupid but markets work that way sometime with optics. We’ll see if it’s right or not.

  16. 个股论点 $AIRO

    看好$AIRO,认为其具备更高上行潜力

    @__visionxry__ $AIRO 具有更高的上行空间

    英文原文

    @__visionxry__ $AIRO for higher upside

  17. 个股论点 $OSS

    看好$OSS在美军装备中的广泛应用及供不应求的高增长前景。

    @B38B37 $OSS 很棒! 他们的身影已经遍布美国军队的部署,从艾布拉姆斯/布雷德利坦克到配备宙斯盾(Aegis)系统的美国海军战舰,再到战术无人机。凭借高利润率、极具粘性的技术,以及供不应求的需求。 很期待看到它在未来一年的发展走向。

    英文原文

    @B38B37 $OSS is great! They’re already everywhere across US army deployments from Abrams/Bradley Tanks to US Navy Warships for Aegis, and tactical drones. With both high margins, incredibly sticky tech, and demand outstripping supply. Excited to see where it heads over the next year

  18. 个股论点

    地缘冲突与巨额军费推动高超音速导弹及无人机板块。

    @Under10Sniper 这就是那个“通过高超音速导弹和无人机打击实现和平”的投资组合。该板块的催化剂实在太多了,从1.5万亿美元的战争部(Department of War)拨款,到委内瑞拉、乌克兰、伊朗甚至可能包括格陵兰岛在内的各地冲突。

    英文原文

    @Under10Sniper This is the peace through hypersonic missiles and drone strikes portfolio. There’s just way too many catalysts going on for this sector from $1.5T Department of War funding to conflicts going on everywhere from Venezuela, Ukraine, Iran, and even maybe Greenland.

  19. 方法论

    技术分析是噪音,基本面和趋势买入压力更重要。

    @LawnChairCap @DanCote303 技术分析(TA)只是自我实现的预言,因为算法和人们都在关注它们。与基本面和顺风带来的买入压力相比,它们只是噪音,完全无关紧要。

    英文原文

    @LawnChairCap @DanCote303 TAs are just self fulfilling prophecies because algorithms and people look at them. They’re just noise and don’t matter at all compared to fundamentals and buying pressure from tailwinds.

  20. 方法论 $OSS

    强调基本面优于图表分析,以OSS为例。

    @DanCote303 总体而言,关注基本面比看图表更重要,$OSS 就是完美的例子。

    英文原文

    @DanCote303 Just in general, it’s more important to look at fundamentals than the chart, $OSS is the perfect example why. Stocks make ATHs every day.

  21. 个股论点 $AIRO$ONDS$VVX

    计划研究VVX,已买入AIRO替代ONDS,承认研究存在遗漏。

    @Rachel308649775 提到 $VVX 这个名字很有趣,我稍后会去研究一下。 是的,我最终买入了 $AIRO,因为它比 $ONDS 便宜得多,但我确信在我的研究中肯定还漏掉了其他标的。

    英文原文

    @Rachel308649775 Interesting name drop with $VVX I’ll take a look soon. Yeah I ended up buying $AIRO since it was much cheaper than $ONDS but I’m sure there was others I missed in my research

  22. 个股论点 $AVAV$BA$KTOS$NOC$OSS$RTX

    美政府警告撤离伊朗,推荐布局战争相关概念股。

    紧急:美国政府:“立即离开伊朗”。 这暗示美国将直接干预。 上一次事件涉及GBU-57A/B钻地弹(MOPs)。 以下是如何从美国入侵伊朗中获利。 战争部门股票: $OSS - 边缘AI(Edge AI) $AVAV - 无人机打击 $BA, $NOC, $RTX - 钻地弹 $KTOS - 用于吸引敌方火力、干扰雷达并引导F-35和B-21的瓦尔基里无人机 这很简单。尤其是在美国入侵委内瑞拉之后。 市场可能会有很大波动,但最大的受益者是纯战争垂直领域的股票。

    英文原文

    Urgent: US Government: “Leave Iran Now”. This implies direct US intervention. The last event was with GBU-57A/B MOPs. Here’s how to profit off US invading Iran. Department of War stocks: $OSS - Edge AI $AVAV - Drone Strikes $BA, $NOC, $RTX - Bunker Bombs $KTOS - Valkyries for drawing enemy fire, jam radars, and lead F-35s and B-21s It’s pretty simple. Especially following US invasion of Venezuela. There’s likely a lot of market volatility but the largest beneficiaries are pure play War verticals.

  23. 个股论点 $INTC$NVDA

    反驳对英特尔的悲观定价,强调其国家安全地位及政府支持。

    抱歉,但Stacy如果在用标准财务模型对$INTC进行建模,并将其定价为一家烧钱的代工厂,那简直是在开玩笑。从国家安全的角度来看,它现在已是美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。无限的印钞机不会让它失败。如果$NVDA或其他公司有任何机会,他们也会受到压力去帮助英特尔。看清这一现实绝非退化。如果Bernstein想给出准确的预测,他们需要审视所有角度,而不是因为特朗普而忽略最大的顺风因素。

    英文原文

    Sorry but Stacy is trolling if they are applying standard financial modeling to $INTC and pricing it like a cash burning foundry. It’s the unspoken de facto semi arm of the US government for national security at this point. The infinite money printer won’t let it fail. And any chance $NVDA or others get, they’ll be pressured to help Intel. It’s not degenerate at all to see that reality. If Bernstein wants to give an accurate projection they need to look at all the angles instead of ignoring the biggest tailwind because of Trump.

  24. 方法论

    博主弃用雅虎财经,改用 Massive 构建实时数据管道。

    @platochi @YahooFinance 我早先查看了雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance),但最终使用 Massive(前身为 Polygon)作为实时数据管道。

    英文原文

    @platochi @YahooFinance I was looking at Yahoo Finance earlier but ended up just using Massive (formerly Polygon) for live data pipelines

  25. 供应链分析 $NVDA

    英伟达与现代合作FSD及波士顿动力量产Atlas。

    @ChainHopper 情况是多方面的,但基本上就是 $NVDA 与韩国现代专家合作开发全自动驾驶(FSD)。然后是其波士顿动力部门的大规模量产Atlas机器人

    英文原文

    @ChainHopper It’s multifaceted but basically $NVDA Hyundai expert partnership for fsd. Then mass production of Atlas from their Boston Dynamics division.

  26. 个股论点 $FLY$RKLB$SNAP

    看好$FLY因诺斯罗普合作,但执行风险高于$RKLB。

    $FLY 是我 2026 年多头持仓的一部分,鉴于其与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作的中程有效载荷发射项目。我确实看好它,但显然最大的风险在于执行层面,而 $RKLB 在此方面历来拥有较高的成功率。我实际上曾发布过关于它的投资论点,只是不像 $SNAP 或其他股票那样经常提及。

    英文原文

    $FLY is part of my longs for 2026 given medium lift payload launch with Northrop. I do like it but obviously the biggest risk is execution related where $RKLB historically had high success. I actually posted a thesis about it, I just don’t post often about it like $SNAP or others.

  27. 个股论点 $SIDU

    质疑$SIDU财务风险,但看好其高超音速导弹探测卫星业务。

    是的,鉴于其疯狂的稀释效应和未盈利状态,我认为 $SIDU 是上面唯一存疑的标的。 但他们正在做的事情真的很酷:为“金穹顶”项目构建用于探测高超音速导弹的卫星。 虽然官方没有明确这么说,但这一点是可以推断出来的。

    英文原文

    Yeah I think $SIDU is the only questionable one up there given insane dilution and unprofitability. But what they're doing is really cool building out satellites for detecting hypersonic missile for the golden dome program. I dont think it's explicitly said that way but it's pretty inferred

  28. 个股论点 $OSS

    作者分享挖掘OSS合同信息先于市场发现价值

    @_stockResearch @amitisinvesting 市场最终无论如何都会将 $OSS 纳入定价。我只是碰巧在其他人之前,通过挖掘合同并从公开信息中综合出了一些战斗验证(combat validation)。

    英文原文

    @_stockResearch @amitisinvesting Markets would have priced $OSS in with or without me eventually. I just happened to do a bit of digging into contracts and discovered some combat validation from public information synthesis before others did.

  29. 个股论点 $OSS

    $OSS 转型为高毛利军用AI硬件商,预期受巨额军费支出推动重估。

    感谢分享,$OSS 已广泛应用于美国军事部署,并在委内瑞拉完成了使用验证。 市场此前大多忽视了它,因为其混合利润率(blended margins)较低,被误认为是大宗商品转售商。且未能将其早期合同拼凑起来看。 在剥离部分业务后,$OSS 现在看起来更像是一家为 AI 和边缘军事部署提供专用、高利润率、加固硬件(ruggedized hardware)的供应商。 话虽如此,小盘股确实存在风险,但我预计鉴于拟议中 1.5 万亿美元战争部门支出的顺风,其估值将得到重估。

    英文原文

    Thanks for sharing, $OSS is used across many US military deployments already with usage validation in Venezuela. Markets largely ignored this one earlier because of blended margins (thought to be a commodity reseller). And not putting the pieces together from their earlier contracts. After selling off some segments, $OSS now starts to like a specialized, high margin, ruggedized hardware provider for AI and edge military deployments. That being said smaller caps do carry risk but I do expect this to be re-rated given the tailwinds from the proposed $1.5T department of war spend.

  30. 个股论点 $OSS

    OSS因军用部署及高利润率成优质做多标的

    很高兴 $OSS 引起了你的注意,正如上述论点所述,它正悄然应用于美国的部署中,以及更为人熟知的现代 Abrams 和 Booker 坦克等美军地面车辆。 利润率远高于人们的预期,因为市场最初建模时使用的是混合利润率。 需求高且粘性大,因此在我看来这是一个很好的做多标的。

    英文原文

    Glad $OSS caught your attention, it’s silently used across US deployments like in the thesis above, and more well known ones like modern Abrams and Booker tanks US army land vehicles. Margins are much higher than people think because originally markets were modeling blended margins. Demand is high/sticky so looked like a great long to me.