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Metropolitan Capital Bank倒闭系孤立事件，警惕$MCB错杀机会。
@cryptorover 仅供参考，99%是因为它刚刚发生。 今年美国第一家倒闭的银行刚刚倒下： Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust 已被联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)关闭并接管。 以下是可能发生的事情以及市场可能如何反应： 这家芝加哥银行按资产规模（2.61亿美元）属于社区银行，但以精品投资银行的风险水平运营。 他们涉足三个领域： - 科技赋能体育 - 数字媒体 - 小众房地产建设 从公开信息来看，我们可以看到在这两个波动性行业中存在高度集中的风险。 特别是由老虎伍兹(Tiger Woods)创立的 TMRW Sports。该银行不仅促进股权交易，还以股权为抵押进行贷款。 通过提供“有担保的股票贷款”和“净资产值(NAV)支持的融资”，该银行允许投资者借钱买入特殊目的载体(SPV)。 由于 TGL 项目下跌且投资缺乏流动性，这些贷款的抵押品可能变得一文不值。借款人面临流动性约束，可能会违约。 该银行还为数字媒体行业和小众房地产建设领域的客户融资“战略附加收购”。 该银行参与建筑项目的“缺口融资(gap financing)”可能同样具有毒性。随着 2024-2025 年建筑行业面临困难，MCB&T 的“创造性”缺口贷款可能在停滞或止赎的项目上遭受全部损失。 片段显示 MCB&T 持有 4300 万美元的联邦住房贷款银行(FHLB)预付款，而资产为 2.61 亿美元（约 16.5% 的资产负债表由 FHLB 借款资助）。 一系列糟糕的投资/贷款可能导致银行倒闭。 评论： 你可能会看到关于银行倒闭和白银交易的头条新闻。 是的，社区银行被设计为保守机构，但这特定的银行承担了高风险的创业债务模式。 这不是银行挤兑，只是一个运作糟糕的杠杆投资基金。 但这里要注意： $MCB - Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp 不是 Metropolitan Capital Bank。 超额收益(alpha)在于，如果出现算法抛售或做空者混淆两者，这将是一个良好的买入机会。 $KRE - 如果板块因“银行倒闭”头条新闻大幅抛售，看起来是买入机会。 该银行在社区银行资产负债表上运行“赌场”模式，但这是孤立事件。 关注来自伊利诺伊州/中西部小型银行如 CRE Loans 的商业房地产敞口或不受保险存款（>50%）可能受到影响的情况。 然而，这看起来是一家极小的地区性银行且是孤立事件，因此这里没有太多市场机会。
英文原文
@cryptorover FYI it's 99% because it just happened https://t.co/3RcMYNpecP
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Metropolitan Capital Bank倒闭系高风险投资所致，属孤立事件，警惕$MCB错杀机会。
今年第一家美国银行刚刚倒闭： Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust 已被联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)关闭并接管。 以下是可能发生的事情以及市场可能的反应： 这家芝加哥银行按资产规模($2.61亿)属于社区银行，但以精品投资银行的风险水平运营。 他们涉足三个领域： - 科技赋能体育 - 数字媒体 - 小众房地产建设 从公开信息来看，这两个波动性行业存在高风险集中。 特别是由老虎伍兹创立的 TMRW Sports。该银行不仅促成股权交易，还以此作为贷款抵押。 通过提供“有担保的股票贷款”和“净资产值(NAV)支持的融资”，银行允许投资者借钱买入特殊目的载体(SP.V)。 由于 TGL 项目下跌且投资缺乏流动性，这些贷款的抵押品可能变得一文不值。借款人面临流动性约束，可能会违约。 该银行还为数字媒体行业和小众房地产建设领域的客户融资“战略附加收购”。 该银行在建设项目“缺口融资”方面的参与可能同样具有毒性。随着 2024-2025 年建筑行业面临困难，MCB&T 的“创造性”缺口贷款可能在停滞或止赎的项目上遭受全部损失。 片段显示 MCB&T 持有 4300 万美元的联邦住房贷款银行(FHLB)预付款，而资产总额为 2.61 亿美元（约 16.5% 的资产负债表由 FHLB 借款资助）。 一系列糟糕的投资/贷款可能导致银行倒闭。 _ 评论： 你可能会看到关于银行倒闭和白银交易的头条新闻。 是的，社区银行被设计为保守机构，但这特定银行承担了高风险的风投债务模式。 这不是银行挤兑，只是一个运作糟糕的杠杆投资基金。 但这里要注意： $MCB - Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp 不是 Metropolitan Capital Bank。 超额收益在于，如果出现算法抛售或做空者混淆两者，这将是一个良好的买入机会。 $KRE - 如果板块因“银行倒闭”头条新闻大幅抛售，看起来是买入机会。 该银行在社区银行资产负债表上运行“赌场”模式，但这是孤立事件。 关注小型伊利诺伊州/中西部银行如 CRE Loans 的商业房地产敞口或无保险存款（>50%）可能受到影响。 然而，这看起来是一家极小的地区性银行且为孤立事件，因此市场机会不多。
英文原文
The first US Bank of the year has just collapsed: Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust has been shut down and placed into receivership by the FDIC. Here's what likely happened and how markets might react: The Chicago bank was a community bank by asset size ($261M), but operated with the risk of a boutique investment bank. They operated in three segments: - Tech-Infused Sports - Digital Media - Niche Real Estate Construction From public information, we're able to see high concentration of risk in these two volatile sectors. Namely, TMRW Sports, the venture founded by Tiger Woods. The bank didn't just facilitate the equity; it lent against it. By providing "secured stock loans" and "NAV-backed financing", the bank allowed investors to borrow money to buy into the SPV. Since the TGL venture dropped and the investment was illiquid, the collateral for these loans likely became worthless. The borrowers, facing liquidity constraints, would default on the loans. The bank also financed "strategic add-on acquisitions" for clients in the digital media industry and Niche Real Estate Construction. The bank’s involvement in "gap financing" for construction projects was likely equally toxic. MCB&T’s "creative" gap loans likely suffered total losses on projects that stalled or were foreclosed as construction sectors in 2024-2025 faced difficulty. Snippet reveals that MCB&T held $43 million in FHLB advances against $261 million in assets (~16.5% of the balance sheet was funded by FHLB borrowing). A series of terrible investments/loans likely caused the bank to collapse. _ Commentary: You'll probably see headlines regarding bank collapses and silver trades. Yes, community banks are designed to be conservative institutions but they this bank in specific took on a high-risk venture debt models. This wasn't a bank run, just a terribly run leveraged investment fund. But here's what to look out for: $MCB - Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp is not Metropolitan Capital Bank. The alpha is that if there's an algorithmic sell-off or short sellers mistaking the two, this would be a good buying opportunity. $KRE - Looks like a buy if the sector sells off largely on "bank failure" headlines. The bank ran a "casino" model on a community bank balance sheet, but this is isolated. Look for commercial real estate exposure from small-cap Illinois/Midwest banks like CRE Loans or uninsured deposits ( > 50%) that might be affected. However, this looks to be an extremely small regional bank and isolated incident so not much market opportunity here.
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澄清级联保证金清算真相，驳斥媒体归咎美联储的错误叙事。
我不持有白银(Silver)的任何头寸，对价格方向也没有强烈看法。话虽如此，只是想报告一下级联保证金清算(Cascading Margin Liquidations)实际发生的情况。特别是因为新闻媒体在重复同样的错误叙事，将其归咎于美联储主席，却遗漏了最重要的细节。
英文原文
I don’t own any positions in Silver and don’t have any strong opinion on price direction. That being said, just wanted to report what actually happened with the cascading margin liquidations. Especially because news outlets are parroting the same false narrative blaming it on the Fed chair and leaving out the most important details.
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分析$ORCL复苏取决于AI云盈利及降低OpenAI风险。
我对它是否会复苏没有强烈看法。 主要看两个因素： - 市场希望看到其AI云业务(CPO)实现盈利（例如搞定编排、客户多元化以提升利用率） - 降低来自OpenAI的交易对手风险（可能IPO或更多融资） 否则，任何为AI云购买GPU的公司近期都因折旧和债务担忧而暴跌。 如果你认为$ORCL能做到这两点，那么可能是一个不错的复苏多头机会。
英文原文
I don’t have a strong opinion on whether or not it recovers. It’s two main factors: -market wants proof their ai cloud segment is profitable (eg. nailing orchestration, customer diversification which plays into utilization) - lower counterparty risk from OpenAI (maybe ipo, or more funding) Otherwise anyone who buys GPUs for Ai clouds tanked recently over depreciation and debt concerns. If you think $ORCL can do those two then might be a good recovery long
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Oracle因OpenAI项目面临巨大交易对手风险及盈利不确定性。
我关注 Neoclouds 已有一段时间，因此对 $ORCL 很熟悉。情况很微妙： 主要看点是资本支出(CapEx)从 350 亿美元增至 500 亿美元，以及约 2000 多亿美元的数据中心(DC)租赁。 这主要是为了“星门(Stargate)”项目，主要客户是 OpenAI，这带来了巨大的交易对手风险(counterparty risk)。 众所周知，OpenAI 拥有超过 1 万亿美元签约资本支出，但没有足够的资金来支付。因此，你在财报中看到的用于投资回报(ROI)支出的 3000 多亿美元签约收入，可能会轻易消失。 你可能认为寻找其他客户很容易，但任何利用率滞后(utilization lag)，加上资产/租赁折旧，都会造成巨大伤害。 第二部分是： -> 将其转化为高利润率业务极其困难。 你必须结合 GPU 折旧、GPU 编排（这真的很难，目前只有 Nebius、Coreweave 等少数几家公司能做好），以及其他因素，才能将收入转化为自由现金流(FCF)。 当像 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 那样承担大量债务时，这会侵蚀任何自由现金流，且你仍需偿还债务。 《信息(The Information)》在一两个月前泄露的消息称，Oracle 在其 GPU 业务板块面临大量盈利问题（如 GPU 利用率问题等）。这造成了影响。 总体而言，主要不确定性在于与 OpenAI 的交易对手风险。其核心业务强劲，但新建设施 shaky（不稳定/令人担忧）。 因此我认为，这是针对不稳定交易对手的过度资本支出，且存在该支出能否转化为自由现金流或更多亏损的疑问。
英文原文
I've been covering Neoclouds for awhile so I'm familiar with $ORCL. It's nuanced: Main thing is CapEx -> $50B from $35B, and $200B+ or so in DC leases. This is mainly for the Stargate project, mainly for OpenAI, which presents incredible counter party risk. As you know OpenAI has $1T+ in contracted capex spend, but not enough money to pay for it. So that $300B+ in contracted revenue you see in earnings for ROI spend, could easily just disappear. You might think it's easy to just get another customer but any utilization lag, combined with asset/lease depreciation, hurts. A lot. Second part is -> It's incredibly hard to turn this into a high margin business. You have to combine GPU depreciation, GPU orchestration (which is really difficult Nebius, Coreweave are the few currently that can do this well), amid other things to turn that revenue into FCF. And when you take on a lot of debt as seen with $CRWV, and $ORCL that cuts into any FCF + you still need to pay it off. The Information leaked news a month or two ago that Oracle was facing a lot of issues with profitability on their GPU segment (GPU utilization issues, etc). So that took a toll. Overall, main uncertainty is counterparty risk with OpenAI. It's core business is strong, but new buildout is shaky. So I would argue it's excessive Capex for a shaky counterparty and questions on whether that turns into FCF or more losses.
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媒体掩盖交易所规则导致白银崩盘真相
白银崩盘的报道是我见过最不诚实的。从《福布斯》到《华尔街日报》等主流媒体，都将白银28%以上的暴跌归咎于新任美联储主席Kevin Warsh。但他们忽略了真正的原因：- 芝商所(CME)白银维持保证金上调5次以上，并改为百分比基准；- 金银商银行（如摩根大通、多伦多道明银行等）面临无限亏损；- 交易所因溢价高于上海黄金交易所(SHFE)合约而暂停交易。媒体系统性地掩盖了这一事实：白银是被交易所规则砸盘的。当前的媒体报道正在掩盖那些为避免机构从未持有的“纸白银”无限亏损而设立的“不公平规则”。
英文原文
The Silver crash has the most dishonest reporting I've ever seen. From mainstream media like Forbes to WSJ. Everyone pins Silver's 28%+ crash on the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. But they fail to report the true cause: - CME maintenance margin on Silver hiking 5+ times -> changing to percentage base - Bullion banks (JPMorgan, TD, etc) were facing infinite losses - Exchange halts due to premiums over SHFE contracts. The media is systematically burying this fact: Silver was crashed by exchange rules. Current media reporting is covering up the "unfair rules" that were put in place to avoid infinite losses from the "Paper Trade" Silver the institutions never had.
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质疑市场对以色列股票估值过低，分析ETOR和VLN的财务优势。
对我来说，答案是肯定的。我真的不明白市场为何对以色列股票如 $ETOR、$NBIS 和 $VLN 如此不友好，因为它们是我表现最差的持仓。 我在 Etoro 上亏损了不少，但其持有约一半现金，且企业价值(EV)与远期收益(Forward Earnings)之比约为4倍。资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长77%。 而 $VLN 基本上拥有约1.1亿美元现金/库存，市值为1.7亿美元。营收8000万美元且毛利率很高。 所以个人实在搞不清楚到底发生了什么。
英文原文
To me strong yes. I really don't understand what markets have against Israeli stocks like $ETOR, $NBIS, and $VLN because those are my worst performers. I lost off so much from Etoro but they're half cash and basically 4 forward earnings to EV. Growing AUM 77% Y/Y. Then $VLN is basically ~$110m ish cash/inventory and $170m MC. And $80M revenue and high gross margins. So personally not quite sure what's going on.
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驳斥媒体将白银下跌归咎于美联储主席提名，实为保证金上调所致。
随时。我只是不断看到主流媒体将“美联储主席”提名引用为白银下跌的原因，但任何能独立思考的人都知道那不是原因。该提名只是给CME/交易所和银行提供了一个借口，以避免承认他们自己的保证金上调至%+以及提高的要求导致了清算。话虽如此，我并不参与白银市场，我只是想发布我所发现的内容。
英文原文
Anytime. I just kept seeing the "Fed Chair" nomination cited as the reason for the Silver drop from mainstream media, but anyone who can think independently knows that's not the reason. The nomination just gives CME/exchanges and banks an excuse to avoid admitting that their own margin hikes to % + hiked requirements forced liquidations. That being said I'm not engaged in the Silver market, I just wanted to publish what I found.
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CME保证金新规导致白银合约抵押金飙升，迫使交易员抛售并引发螺旋下跌。
白银故事的残酷教训是：交易所制定所有规则。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)将保证金改为基于百分比的9%（随后加息至11%或12%以上）。在旧制度下，5000美元的保证金保持不变。在新制度下，当白银今天触及120美元时，一份合约所需的抵押品会不断增加，飙升至超过54000美元。交易员基本上被迫在上涨过程中因要求变化而卖出。而在下跌过程中，局势则陷入螺旋式恶化。
英文原文
Brutal moral of the story with Silver is: Exchanges set all the rules. CME moved to a 9% percentage-based margin (then 11% or 12%+ with hikes). In the old system, a $5,000 margin stayed $5,000. Under the new system, when silver hit $120 today, the required collateral for one contract would keep increasing and ballooned to over $54,000. Traders were basically forced to sell on the way up as requirements changed. And on the way down, it spiraled.
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CME保证金调整与中国流动性陷阱引发$SLV杠杆清算暴跌。
白银今日收盘下跌超过28.54%。 以下是白银/$SLV 今日暴跌的原因： 1月13日：芝加哥商品交易所(CME)将保证金从固定美元制改为基于百分比的制度。 这使得抵押品要求随合约价值缩放，实际上限制了价格上涨时的杠杆率。 维持单个纽约商品交易所(COMEX)合约所需的资本随之增加，导致即使微小的价格下跌也会触发巨额追加保证金通知。 1月27日：CME本周两次提高维持保证金比例，以确保在极端波动中拥有“充足的抵押品覆盖”。 这迫使杠杆头寸平仓多头或追加大量资金。 九天内五次上调保证金，形成了潜在的“弹簧式”抛压。 今日：西方市场关注美联储，但新任美联储主席的影响可能有限，这不过是噪音。 定价错配发生在亚洲市场。瑞银国银白银期货基金的交易价格较上海期货交易所(SHFE)合约溢价36-64%。这是中国主要的白银敞口来源。 1月30日，深圳证券交易所对国银白银上市开放式基金(LOF)实施紧急全天停牌。 这一停牌为中国机构和散户投资者制造了“流动性陷阱”。由于无法清算国内持仓，这些参与者被迫抛售$SLV和COMEX期货以筹集现金或对冲敞口。 总结： 2026年1月30日$SLV的暴跌并非白银基本面价值的失败，而是决定价格发现的“纸面游戏”的失败。 CME反复提高保证金要求以及中国的流动性陷阱导致了级联式的保证金清算，引发了杠杆头寸的抛售。 美联储主席等其他事件可能早已知晓，看起来只是关于实际发生情况的“叙事噪音”。 今天是“纸面游戏”的失败，用于交易的杠杆被交易所规则系统性地清除。
英文原文
Silver ended the day down over 28.54% Here's why Silver / $SLV crashed today: Jan 13th: CME shifted from fixed-dollar margin to percentage based margin. This scaled collat requirements with contract value, effectively capping leverage as it goes higher. The capital required to maintain a single COMEX contract increased in tandem, creating an environment where even minor price drops would trigger massive margin calls. Jan 27th: CME had increased the maintenance margin percentage twice this week to ensure "adequate collateral coverage" amid extreme volatility. This forced leveraged positions to liquidate their long positions or post substantial additional capital. There were five margin hikes within nine days that created a "coiled spring" of potential selling pressure. Today: Western markets focused on the Federal Reserve, but the new Fed chair likely did not play much of an impact as this is just noise. Pricing dislocations happened in Asian markets. UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund traded at 36-64% premiums over SHFE contracts. And this was the main source of silver exposure in China. On January 30, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange implemented an emergency full-day trading halt for the SDIC Silver LOF. This suspension created a "liquidity trap" for Chinese institutional and retail traders. Unable to liquidate their domestic holdings, these participants were forced to dump $SLV and COMEX futures to raise cash or hedge their exposure. TLDR: The $SLV crash of January 30, 2026 today was not a failure of silver's fundamental value, but a failure of the "paper game" that dictated price discovery. CME hiking margin requirements repeatedly and the China liquidity trap led to cascading margin liquidations that caused selloffs of leveraged positions. Other events such as the Fed chair was likely known awhile, looks to be "narrative noise" regarding what actually happened. Today was a "Paper Game" failure and leverage used to trade it was systematically wiped out by exchange rules.
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博主对比同行跌幅，自嘲今日亏损15%是前币圈交易者的常态。
@pepemoonboy 说实话，考虑到 $NBIS 下跌超过 10%，而 $SLV 等其他标的下跌超过 29%，-6.32% 的跌幅其实相当不错。 我今天亏损了 15.03%。 不过对于前加密货币交易者来说，这感觉就像是一个普通的周五。 https://t.co/KV9Y3DX67Y
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Honestly -6.32% drop is pretty good considering $NBIS is down 10%+ and others like $SLV are down 29%+. I'm down 15.03% today. This feels like a normal Friday though for former crypto traders. https://t.co/KV9Y3DX67Y
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认同市场需借口上涨，认为沃什鹰派观点不会致白银大跌。
@gofallingknife 是的，我也这么想。有时市场只需要一个借口来继续上涨，我听过很多次这种说法。 我有关于沃什(Warsh)以及鹰派/美元类交易(hawkish/dollar type trades)的自己的论点，但这肯定不会导致白银下跌37%。
英文原文
@gofallingknife Yeah was thinking the same here. Sometimes markets just need an excuse to run on and I've heard that story being repeated a lot. I have my own thesis about Warsh and hawkish/dollar type trades but this would definitely not cause a 37% drop on silver.
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质疑做市商操纵白银市场暴跌以清洗期权链的说法。
@genZinvest0r 他们确实这么做了……但我不认为做市商(MMs)有那么大的权力能在几小时内让白银市场暴跌37%以清洗期权链。
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@genZinvest0r They did… but I don’t think MMs have that much power to drop the silver market 37% in a few hours to hose the option chain
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质疑沃什任美联储人选引发SLV闪崩的说法，认为市场早已定价。
我读过那篇文章，但觉得不太可信。我们早就知道沃什（Warsh）很可能成为下一任美联储人选，因为预测市场的概率约为80%。市场可能早已将这一预期计入价格，这不太可能导致 $SLV 出现37%的闪崩。
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I read about that and didn't think it true though, we already knew Warsh was likely to be the next fed pick way earlier because it was ~80% chance on prediction markets. Markets probably would have priced that in already and it probably wouldn't have caused a 37% $SLV flash crash.
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询问SLV闪崩原因
有人知道 $SLV 发生了什么吗？ 这次闪崩太疯狂了。 https://t.co/9nduvsnjFc
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Anyone know what happened to $SLV? This flash crash is wild. https://t.co/9nduvsnjFc
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光子学建设规模惊人，上游前驱体材料或成瓶颈。
@PhotonCap 绝对没错，当你将光子学(CPO)的建设与$ LITE等公司的预期增长进行映射时，人们就能直观地看到其规模有多么惊人。 但他们忽略了使这一切成为可能的上游前驱体材料，这也是我预计它将成为主要瓶颈的原因。
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@PhotonCap Absolutely, when you map the photonics buildout and projected growth with $LITE and others, people can just see how staggering it is. But they miss upstream precursors that make it all happen, which is why I’m expecting it to be a major bottleneck.
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作者补仓CRCL和NBIS，认为稳定币长期看好。
对我来说，这是一个非常棒的长线机会。我在 $CRCL 上亏了不少，所以我正在通过补仓来摊低成本。$NBIS 我的成本均价在 90 多美元，所以没什么痛苦。 唯一的变化是 $CRCL 面临 2-3 次降息带来的短期逆风。 最大的变化是《澄清法案》(CLARITY Act)，该法案禁止像 Coinbase 这样的交易所对稳定币支付利息（因为它与银行竞争，这简直太愚蠢了。我真不敢相信预测市场显示其通过概率约为 57%）。 话虽如此，USDC 供应量的增加将抵消利息收入的损失，而且稳定币在未来几年应该表现优异。
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For me it's an amazing long, I actually lost a lot on $CRCL so I'm cost averaging down. $NBIS my cost average was in the 90's so not really much pain there. Only things that have changed is $CRCL faces near term headwinds with 2-3 rate cuts. And the biggest thing is CLARITY Act which bans exchanges related to stablecoins like Coinbase from giving interest on top (because it competes with banks, which is just so, so stupid. I can't believe it's actually a thing that's likely to be passed ~57% on prediction markets). That being said, added USDC supply would offset interest income losses, and stablecoins should be great going forward over the next few years.
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对比AXTI与LPTH，认为AXTI具更高纯上行潜力
所以 $AXTI 是我找到的最接近 NAND/HBM 类型价格挤压交易（针对光子学）的标的。 $LPTH 是一个利用黑钻解决锗瓶颈的方案，更多是长期供应链向“美国制造”转型的举措。 风险水平和上行空间不同，但就纯上行潜力而言，我会保留 AXT。
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So $AXTI is the next closest thing to NAND/HBM type price squeeze play (for photonics) that I've found. $LPTH is a germanium bottleneck fix w/black diamond that is more of an long term supply chain pivot to Made in America over time. Different risk levels and upside but pure upside I'd maintain AXT.
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感谢指正关于BSOL股票的信息。
@DanielApfelbaum 你说得对，感谢指出关于 $BSOL 的问题。
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@DanielApfelbaum You're right thanks for pointing that out about $BSOL
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7N铟价创新高，AI需求致上游供应瓶颈显现，涨价在即。
7N铟价格在SMM上刚刚创下历史新高，且毫无放缓迹象。 $AXTI 的瓶颈正在实时上演。 西方超大规模云服务商似乎正在吸收用于AI建设的几乎所有磷化铟(InP)衬底和前驱体供应。 就像 $SNDK 和 $MU 一样，对于像AXT这样的上游供应商来说，这只是一场等待涨价（类似NAND）的博弈。 供应冲击似乎不可避免。
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7N Indium prices have just hit ATHs on SMM with zero signs of slowing down. The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time. Western hyperscalers appear to be soaking up every bit of the InP substrates + precursors supply for the AI buildout. Like $SNDK and $MU, it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices (like NAND). The supply shock feels inevitable.
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看好比特币财富转移逻辑，认为其终将涨至100万美元。
@nwongmd 在30岁以下人群中极受欢迎。财富转移（与 $HOOD 逻辑相同）流向下一代。有限供应，数字黄金。我认为 $1m 是必然的，问题是你愿意等多久（也许8年）。
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@nwongmd Extremely popular among age 30 and under. Wealth transfer (same thesis as $HOOD) down to next generation. Finite supply, digital gold. $1m seems inevitable to me, it’s how long you want to wait (like 8 years maybe)
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博主回顾早期加密持仓经历，称Solana仅为波段交易。
哈哈，我在 $RDDT 的一个帖子提到 $ETH 在 1600 美元时，后来它涨到了 4000 美元。 我是 $ETH 低于 90 美元和 $BTC 在几千美元区间时的早期加密货币持有者。 所以过去几年我经历了所有的周期。不过我通常不碰像 Solana 这样的东西，除非它大幅抛售。 对我来说这不是长期持有，只是波段交易。
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lol one of my $RDDT posts was $ETH at $1600 before it went to $4k. I’m an OG crypto holder at $ETH sub $90 and $BTC in the few thousand range. So I’ve been through all the cycles for the past few years. I normally don’t touch stuff like Solana though unless it sells off extremely hard. Not a long term hold for me just a swing trade.
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极度看好AXTI并净买入，因替代风险减持LPTH，因避免恐慌而谨慎发布卖出更新。
$AXTI 在我发布的股票组合中，我对它实际上极其看好，并且在这个价位我是净买入者。我会发后续帖子，但我只是看到铟（Indium）价格每天都在上涨。如果你看2027-2028年，光子学（Photonics）的扩张速度令人难以置信。我对其他股票如 $OSS 进行了减仓，因为它已经上涨了100%，但我仍然持有仓位。$LPTH 有一些关于更便宜的锗（Germanium）替代品的令人担忧的消息，所以我减少了一些仓位。我处于一种奇怪的境地，我需要诚实/客观，但我不喜欢发布看跌更新或当我卖出时，因为我不想传播恐慌。所以我倾向于谨慎，除非是非常重大的事件（如定向增发 ATM），否则我不发帖。上次我发帖说卖出 $IREN 时，接下来的几周我收到了大量的负面评论垃圾信息。
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$AXTI I’m actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I’ve posted and im a net buyer at these levels. I’ll make a follow-up post but I just see 7n indium prices increase every day. And the photonics ramp are incredible if you look at 2027-2027. I did take cut on others like $OSS, after a 100% rally but still hold positions. $LPTH there was some concerning stuff regarding cheaper germanium alternatives so I did trim some positions. I’m in a weird situation where I need to be truthful/objective but don’t enjoy posting bear updates or when I sell since I don’t want to spread panic. So I just lean on the side of caution by refraining from it unless it’s extremely material (like an ATM) Last time I posted about selling $IREN I had a flood of negative comment spam for the next few weeks.
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ETH日销毁量稳定，但相关公司资金流向实体产业。
@alejan119_ 现在每天大约有 22 枚 $ETH 被销毁。而像 $BMNR 这样的以太坊国库公司正将资金注入巧克力棒公司和私人飞机发动机领域。所以并不是 https://t.co/RrQfhNrZXl
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@alejan119_ There’s like a solid 22 $ETH burned a day now. And all the Ethereum treasury companies like $BMNR are funneling money into chocolate bar companies and private jet engines. So not really https://t.co/RrQfhNrZXl
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看好SOL反弹机会并计划逢低买入，同时考虑大幅增持CRCL和MSTR。
@hedgedwolf 我已经数不清看到像 $SOL 这样从 100-120 美元区间反弹至 165-185 美元的情况有多少次了。总之，我认为这是一个有吸引力的机会，如果它再下跌几个百分点，我可能会再进行一次平均成本买入(Cost Average)。我可能也会大量增持 $CRCL 和 $MSTR。
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@hedgedwolf Lost count of how many times I’ve seen stuff like $SOL bounce from $100-120 range to $165-$185. Anyway just saw this as an attractive opportunity, I’ll probably cost avg one more time if it drops another few percent. I’ll probably heavy add $CRCL and $MSTR to the list as well
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博主今日大幅加仓加密货币相关ETF及个股，试图抄底。
我今天最终将大量仓位轮动到了正在下落的加密货币“飞刀”上。 只是感觉从 $COIN 到 $SOL 的所有东西最近都跌得有点太多了。 - 比特币 $82.9k 通过 IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) 通过 $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) 通过 $LTCC - $COIN ($197) 希望我抄底抄对了时机。
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I ended up rotating a lot of my positions into the falling knife on crypto today. Just felt like everything has recent from $COIN to $SOL has crashed a bit much - Bitcoin $82.9k via IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) via $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) via $LTCC - $COIN ($197) Hope I timed the bottom correctly
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博主悼念用户@zephyr_z9
@zephyr_z9 安息
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@zephyr_z9 rip
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博主确认持有华邦电子股票。
@zephyr_z9 如果你指的是那家，我也持有华邦电子(Winbond)。
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@zephyr_z9 I also own Winbond if that was the one ur thinking about
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SanDisk聚焦AI致传统存储真空，群联与美光科有望填补。
我持有的、在 $SNDK 财报后有趣的受益者： 群联电子 (TPE: 8299) 和 美光科 (TPE: 2337)。 类似于南亚科 (1年涨幅 1,035.96%) 填补了 $MU、SK 海力士和三星留下的传统 DRAM 空白： 群联电子在闪存 (库存) 方面对 SanDisk 做同样的事。美光科则通过 MLC NAND (拥有晶圆厂) 填补空白。 所以这是另一个“传统空白”策略。 随着 $SNDK 将其 NAND 晶圆转向企业级 SSD 以聚焦 AI，群联/美光科看起来要填补这一真空。 特别是当 SK 海力士和三星停止生产 MLC NAND 以聚焦 HBM 时，这两家公司将成为传统存储领域的“最后幸存者”。 群联电子恰好拥有 2024/2025 年大量低成本 NAND 库存。 美光科正在增加 MLC NAND 产量以填补三星/SanDisk 转型留下的空白。 所以对于 SanDisk 留下的“南亚科 2.0”： 群联 = 巨大库存的价格套利 美光科 = MLC NAND
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Interesting beneficiaries post $SNDK earnings that I own: Phison (TPE: 8299) and Macronix (TPE: 2337). Similar to Nayna (1,035.96% 1Y) that filled legacy dram void from $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung: Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory). And Macronix with MLC NAND (owns wafer fabs). So another "legacy void" play. As $SNDK pivots their NAND wafers toward enterprise SSDs to focus on AI, Phison/Macronix looks to fill the vacuum. Esp. when Sk Hynix and Samsung stop making MLC NAND to focus on HBM, the "Last Man Standing" for legacy storage would be those two. Phison happens to be sitting on a massive stockpile of lower-cost NAND from 2024/2025. And Macronix are upping their MLC NAND production to fill the void from the Samsung/SanDisk pivot. So for Nanya v2 left by Sandisk: Phison = Massive stockpile price abritrage Macronix = MLC NAND
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持有SNDK和南亚科，涨幅超1000%。
@HelixCapital_ 可能是 SanDisk，但我没有明确倾向。我目前同时持有 $SNDK 和南亚科(Nanya)（在财报后买入 SanDisk，并将铠侠(Kioxia)作为 SanDisk 的代理标的)。它们自去年以来都上涨了 1000%+，所以很难抱怨。
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@HelixCapital_ Probably Sandisk but no firm opinion, I own both $SNDK and Nanya right now (ended up buying Sandisk after ER, but have Kioxia as Sandisk proxy) They’re both up 1000%+ since last year so hard to complain.