全部推文
共 6424 条 · 第 142 / 215 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
批评 $SNAP 高管高薪与财务操纵，认为其基本面被低估。
$SNAP 股价接近历史低点 $6.7，尽管营收/利润在增长。原因如下： 其财务工程手段近乎犯罪。 Snapchat 是一家市值 115 亿美元的公司，拥有约 10 亿月活用户(MAU)，Q3 调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA) 约 1.32 亿美元。 然而： - $SNAP 过去 12 个月的股票薪酬(stock comp)是多少？ 25 亿美元。是的，过去十二个月(TTM)高达 25 亿美元。当前年度约为 10.6 亿美元。 - Snap 正在举债进行回购，以支付高管薪酬。 - CEO 每年发放约 10 亿美元以上的基于股票的薪酬。这是一项非现金支出，从而“掩盖”了自由现金流(FCF)。 - 他们为此债务支付 6.875% 的利息，仅仅是为了确保高管薪酬不会导致股价崩盘。 结合 2026 年预计 8.2 亿 -9.5 亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)预测来看： Perplexity AI 交易：+3 亿 -4 亿美元 记忆功能变现(Memory Monetization)：+2.4 亿美元（3% 日活用户(DAU)转化为 1.99 美元套餐） 记忆功能运营支出(OpEx)削减：+3000 万美元 利息支出：(1.5 亿 -1.8 亿美元) 基准值：~4 亿美元 这看起来简直荒谬。 他们只需要高管不再自我支付数十亿美元，基本面就会看起来像一家 200 亿美元以上的公司（约 21 倍估值）。这是一家具有巨大变现潜力的增长型社交媒体公司。 我原本在做多头头寸的尽职调查(DD)，但目前，这种结构看起来就像是从散户向 $SNAP 高管转移财富，同时不断以“留住人才”为由每年支付 10 亿美元以上。 本周财报电话会议中，我将重点关注股票薪酬结构。
英文原文
$SNAP is close to all time lows at $6.7, despite growing revenues/profit. Here's why: The financial engineering looks criminal. Snapchat is a $11.5B company that has ~1B MAU with Q3 adjusted EBITDA ~$132M. However: - $SNAP stock comp for the last 12M? $2.5 Billion. Yes $2.5 Billion TTM. The current yearly is closer to $1.06 Billion. - Snap is going into debt to do buy-backs from executive pay. - The CEO issued ~$1B+ in annual stock based compensation annually. This is a non-cash expense that "hides" FCF. - They are paying 6.875% interest on that debt just to make sure the executive pay doesn't tank the stock price. When you couple that with projections even est. $820M – $950M FCF for 2026. Perplexity AI Deal: +$300M - $400M Memory Monetization: +$240M (3% DAU conversion to $1.99 plan) Memory OpEx Cuts: +30M Interest: ($150M - $180M) Baseline: ~$400M This just looks insane. All they need to do is have executives not pay themselves billions and the fundamentals look like a $20B+ company (~21x multiple). This is a growing social media company that has tremendous potential for monetization. I was doing more DD into long positions, but currently, this structure just looks like a transfer of wealth from retail to $SNAP executives with continuous claims of "keeping talent" for $1B+ a year. My eyes are on stock compensation structures for this week's earnings call.
-
提及 SigniaCapital 信贷业务
@SigniaCapital 信贷 ^
英文原文
@SigniaCapital Credit ^
-
复盘上月提及的AIRO、LPTH和AVAV表现，重申其投资逻辑。
大家都在走上路。所以 $VPG 是那个强力核心。说正经的，$AIRO、$LPTH 和 $AVAV 都是上个月提到的。$AIRO 自提及以来上涨了 24.9%。我进行了加仓摊平成本，所以在回调后略微盈利/持平。这是我对 $ONDS 的补涨操作，投资逻辑没有改变。$LPTH 下跌了几个百分点，作为锗(Germanium)瓶颈环节的修复方案。基本面没有发生严重的恶化。这是美国锗供应链从向中国转向黑钻(Black Diamond)的长期战略。短期2-3周的价格波动不重要。$AVAV 上涨了，但我是在320多美元时讨论的它。$RKLB 是一家市值450亿美元以上的发射公司，而 $AVAV 凭借数十亿美元的国防合同，年增长率达到三位数。所以在130-140亿美元市值时，我认为这是一个很好的长线标的。
英文原文
They’re all running it down Toplane. Hence why $VPG is the hard carry. Jokes aside $AIRO, $LPTH and $AVAV were all mentioned last month. $AIRO was up 24.9% since I mentioned it. Cost averaged up, so slightly green/breakeven after the drop. This was my catchup play to $ONDS and nothing about the thesis changed. $LPTH is down a few percent as a Germanium choke point fix. Nothing too dire materially changed. This was a long term US germanium supply chain pivot away from China into black diamond. Short term prices in 2-3 weeks don’t matter much. $AVAV is up, but I did talk about it in the $320s. $RKLB is a $45B+ launch company and AVAV is scaling triple digits Y/Y off billions in defense contracts. So at $13-14B I think this is a good long
-
看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头头寸。
@Cheva28789724 这是我之前关于 $VPG 的分析文章。 https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人 Humanoid 放量最不对称的单一敞口，特别是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司生产： 估计占每个人形机器人 BOM（物料清单）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆在 2027 年实现其德克萨斯州 Gigafactory 1000 万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种数学计算极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每个人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生的话）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化后的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55% 左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 85 亿美元收入以 55% 利润率计算： - 20 倍市盈率将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉涨前（3 美元 -> 113 美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30 美元 -> 453 美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领任何映射研究，它们由其他分析师完成）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年以来一直在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们自行研发专利技术/材料并放弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 放量挂钩，始终存在被放弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化的人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年将是机器人的拐点，而 $VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 This was my write up about $VPG earlier https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV
-
VPG因供应特斯拉擎天柱机器人组件，5日涨23%，被视为机器人领域核心标的。
$VPG 强势领涨，5日涨幅+23%。 对于不了解的朋友，埃隆·马斯克已将特斯拉工厂改造为擎天柱(Optimus)的生产线，计入特斯拉($TSLA)的额外收益(ER)。 这家公司每台机器人的估算中位收入为850美元。 100万台擎天柱 = 约8.5亿美元营收 1000万台擎天柱 = 约85亿美元营收 这是我的机器人领域“登月”级选股标的。观察并学习 https://t.co/a8J8aUtlSL
英文原文
The $VPG hard carry, +23% 5D. For people that don’t know, Elon Musk converted Tesla factories for Optimus production on $TSLA ER. This company makes est. $850 midpoint/robot. 1M Optimus = ~$850M revenue 10M Optimus = ~$8.5B revenue My robotics moonshot pick. Watch and learn https://t.co/a8J8aUtlSL
-
VPG本周涨22%，被视为Optimus量产的隐形赢家。
@sovereignsense 是的，我最近一直在谈论 $VPG。本周上涨 22%，是 Optimus 量产加速的隐形赢家。
英文原文
@sovereignsense Yeah I’ve been talking about $VPG a lot recently. Up 22% this week, silent winner from Optimus ramp.
-
存储超级周期盈利强劲，AI需求推动价格结构性上涨。
$SNDK - 即使在上涨16%之后，其2027年的远期市盈率(Forward P/E)仍是个位数。 这就是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)的盈利能力，涉及美光($MU)、SK海力士、三星等公司。 AI需求+价格上调看起来像是新的结构性常态。
英文原文
$SNDK - Even after a 16% increase, the forward 2027 p/e is still single digits. That’s how profitable the memory supercycle is with $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, and others The AI demand + price hikes looks like the new structural norm. https://t.co/6RG14zqEpr
-
回顾历史极度恐惧时买入BTC/ETH的高回报，重申逆向投资策略。
突发新闻——今日，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数(Crypto Fear and Greed Index)触及： 15。极度恐惧(Extreme Fear)。 自2023年以来，这种情况仅出现过3次： ~ 2025年3月11日 ~ 2025年4月7日 ~ 2025年11月22日 如果你在这些天买入 $BTC 和 $ETH 并持有2个月，回报如下： 3/11：+33.7% (BTC)，+39.5% (ETH) 4/7：+33.5%，+43.1% 11/22：+5.9%，+6.2% 3月/4月的下跌是代际级别的买入机会。 11月的下跌复苏较慢，但依然非常有利可图。 无论如何，这是一个古老的故事：恐惧时买入，贪婪时卖出。
英文原文
Just In -- Today, Crypto Fear and Greed Index Hits: 15. Extreme Fear. This has only happened in 3 periods since 2023: ~ 3/11/2025 ~ 4/7/2025 ~ 11/22/2025 If you bought $BTC and $ETH on each of those days and waited 2 months, here were the returns. 3/11: +33.7% (BTC), +39.5% (ETH) 4/7: +33.5%, +43.1% 11/22: +5.9%, +6.2% The March/April dips were generational buying opportunities. The November dip was a slower recovery, but very profitable nevertheless. Regardless, this is a tale as old as time, buy during the fear, sell during the greed.
-
对比存储巨头远期市盈率，指出若周期延续，行业利润或创历史新高。
存储公司概览（2月2日）。 2026/2027年远期市盈率(Forward P/E)预估： 美光(Micron, $MU) 年初至今(YTD) +31.5%： ~10.4倍 (2026年) 闪迪(Sandisk, $SNDK) | 年初至今(YTD) +109.36%： ~14.6倍 (2026年) ~6.3倍 (2027年) 三星电子(Samsung Electronics) | 年初至今(YTD) +17.04%： ~5.1倍 (2026年) ~4.3倍 (2027年) SK海力士(SK Hynix) | 年初至今(YTD) +22.6%： ~4.3倍 (2026年) ~3.4倍 (2027年) 数据源自：三星/SK海力士来自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)研报；闪迪来自贝尔斯登(Bernstein)；美光来自汇丰(HSBC)报告。 闪迪/三星/SK海力士的数据最为最新。 美光的报告日期为1月23日。但今日最新数据显示“美光提议服务器DRAM(DRAM)环比(QoQ)增长115–125%”（来源dramexchange）。 鉴于此前传闻三星NAND价格上涨100%以上：新计算可能将美光的远期市盈率降至~6.9倍-7.3倍。 原始计算使用的是之前的分析师报告。 存储公司预期的净利润令人难以置信。但显然市场在三星/SK海力士的上涨中定价了一些怀疑情绪。 然而，如果存储周期持续至2027-2028年之后，这些公司可能会成为历史上最盈利的企业。
英文原文
Memory Company Overview (February 2nd). Forward P/E Estimates for 2026/2027: Micron ( $MU ) +31.5% YTD: ~10.4x (2026) Sandisk ( $SNDK ) | +109.36% YTD: ~14.6x (2026) ~6.3x (2027) Samsung Electronics | + 17.04% YTD: ~5.1x (2026) ~4.3x (2027) SK Hynix | +22.6% YTD: ~4.3x (2026) ~3.4x (2027) Numbers were derived from Morgan Stanley's research note for Samsung/SK Hynix. Bernstein for Sandisk. HSBC report for Micron. Sandisk/Samsung/SK Hyinx are most up to date. Micron's report was January 23. But recent updates today show "Micron Proposed A 115–125% QoQ Increase for server DRAM" (dramexchange). With rumors that NAND prices increased 100%+ from Samsung the other week: new calculations would may bring Micron to ~6.9x-7.3x forward P/E. Original calculations were using prior analyst reports. The net income memory companies are expected to bring in is absurd. But clearly the market is pricing in some skepticism with the rally (with Samsung/SK Hynix). However if the memory cycle continues past 2027-2028, these companies could be the most profitable in history.
-
提示杠杆风险，表示在ETH等资产大跌时逢低买入。
鉴于$ETH，我只是在提示使用杠杆时可能面临持续抛售的风险。除此之外，我在当前价位是买方，我不确定接下来会发生什么。我个人在$GLXY下跌9%以上时加仓，并在$HOOD、$NBIS、$CRCL、$SOL、$ETH和$IBIT下跌时买入，因为它们都大幅下跌。
英文原文
I’m just citing risks for extended selloffs given $ETH if you’re using margin. Other than that I’m a buyer at these levels, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I personally added $GLXY on the 9% drop + and $HOOD, $NBIS, $CRCL, $SOL, $ETH and $IBIT ON drop since they’re all down a ton.
-
买入NBIS、SOL和ETH，警示高贝塔风险，看好回调机会。
我个人在周一$NBIS跌至$80时买入。它们属于AI基础设施建设主题，但鉴于目前的盈利状况，风险稍高，我依然看好。短期来看，有自动取款机(ATM)发行，这会对价格产生一定影响。 我还在周一以$100的价格加仓了$SOL，以$2200的价格加仓了$ETH，作为波段交易。 话虽如此，鉴于下跌，预计未来会有更多波动，因此高贝塔(high beta)股票的保证金交易很危险。 但其中一些标的在回调中看起来很有吸引力。
英文原文
I personally ended up buying $NBIS on the drop to $80 ON. They’re part of the AI buildout theme, but a tad more risky give profitability so far, so still a fan. Short term there’s the ATM though which does impact the price a bit. I ended up adding $SOL at $100 and $ETH at $2200 too ON for swing trades as well. That being said likely more volatility ahead given drop, so margin on high beta is dangerous. But some of these names look attractive in the pullback.
-
内存股基本面强劲，短期或回调，SK海力士资产负债表优于宏观。
内存板块的自由现金流(FCF)数据过于强劲。整体远期市盈率(Forward P/E)均为个位数。 我预计部分触及历史高点(ATH)的个股会出现非常短期的回调（这是健康的），这是我的猜测。 有些个别公司的基本面，比如SK海力士($SKHY)，简直离谱。资产负债表 > 宏观环境。
英文原文
FCF numbers are way too strong for memory. Single digit forward p/e across the board. I’d expect a very short term pullback (which is healthy) for some the names into ATHs is my guess. There are some individual companies where fundamentals like Sk Hynix are just too ridiculous. Balance sheet > macro.
-
看好AI前景，认为SK海力士等净利润预测荒谬，短期波动将快速消化。
@Sandeman52 看到晚了——我同意。我对人工智能(AI)依然极度看好，关于三星(Samsung)到SK海力士(SK Hynix)的一些净利润预测简直荒谬。这大概是短期波动，一旦做空净头寸的机构在其他板块重新建立多头头寸，这些波动将极快地被消化。
英文原文
@Sandeman52 Saw this late - and agreed. I remain extremely bullish on AI, some of the net income projections on Samsung to SK Hynix are ridiculous. Probably short term volatiality that will get eaten up extremely fast once institutions that were short net reposition long on other sectors
-
CME保证金上调引发白银抛售，预计机构调仓后价格将大幅反弹。
我最大的猜测是，下跌很可能源于保证金上调的机制。但我希望我猜错了。 我们已看到芝加哥商品交易所(CME)提高保证金，例如白银从11%升至15%-16.5%+（今日生效），我猜测机构正利用此机会清除更多杠杆。 周五，市场目睹了白银的人为抛售，很可能是由于金银银行和基金在空头头寸上陷入亏损。 交易中的纸白银价格与实物需求（用于AI+工业）之间存在巨大的价格分化。 但一旦抛售结束，机构利用纸面清算进行净多头重新配置，我们很可能会看到大幅反弹，因为新任美联储主席引发的更广泛抛售更多是表象而非政策实质改变。 只是不知道时间框架。
英文原文
My best guess is likely down due to mechanics of margin hikes. But I hope I'm wrong. We've seen CME increase margins eg. silver 11% -> 15%-16.5%+ values (taking effect today) and my guess is institutions use this opportunity to wipe out more leverage. On Friday, markets saw manufactured selloffs on Silver likely due to bullion banks and funds being underwater on shorts. There's a huge bifurcation in prices between Paper Silver being traded and the physical demand (used for AI + industrial). But once that sell-off is done and institutions use paper liquidations to net-reposition long, we'll likely see a wide recovery since a lot of what happened regarding broader selloff from the new Fed chair is optics rather than policy change. Just don't know timeframe.
-
分析MSTR与BMNR清算风险，前者安全后者股东价值归零。
我研究了 $MSTR（比特币）和 $BMNR（以太坊）的清算场景。基本上，两者在短中期内清算的概率接近于零。MicroStrategy 需要在下一次比特币减半（预计届时迎来新一轮周期繁荣）前后支付利息，因此他们状况良好且仍有现金缓冲。Bitmine 虽不面临清算，但股东权益将被稀释至零，mNAV 崩溃。他们仍将持有以太坊，但股东价值归零。尤其是当基金做空 $BMNR、做多 ETH 质押，并利用其 2 亿美元投资 Mr. Beast 公司等流动性较差的投资进行套利时。
英文原文
I've looked into $MSTR (Bitcoin) and $BMNR (Ethereum) liquidation scenarios. Basically near 0 chance for both short-medium term. Microstrategy is required to pay interest roughly around the time of the next Bitcoin halving (expecting another cycle boom then). So they'll be fine and they still have a cash buffer. Bitmine doesn't quite face liquidation, but shareholder dilution to 0 and mNAV collapse. They'll still have their Ethereum but shareholder value goes to 0. Especially when funds go short $BMNR, long ETH staking, and take advantage of iliquid investments like their $200m into Mr. Beast's company.
-
分析稀土算法误卖后的中性前景及CRCL在QT与降息矛盾下的长期看涨逻辑。
稀土板块从 $MP 到 $USAR 的抛售是由于路透社发布虚假信息后撤回导致的算法错误。然而，就像比特币最初因币安错误导致的清算一样，损害已经造成。不幸的是，我看到 Warsh 对 $CRCL 总体看空。这非常微妙，因为这两件事相互矛盾：缩减资产负债表（量化紧缩 QT）是“紧缩”，而降息是“宽松”。但如果美联储降息（利好加密货币/AI增长）且长期国债收益率因美联储资产负债表缩小而保持高位，Circle 可以继续从其储备中获得高利息，同时更广泛的加密货币市场反弹。（这是“金发姑娘”完美情景）。否则，QT 和降息只会严重伤害 Circle。尽管如此，USDC 的成交量/供应量仍保持在 700 亿美元以上的历史新高，我短期保持看空中性，但在 149 亿美元市值下长期非常看好。回到稀土，本质上它是中性的。就像海外的三星/台积电一样，尽管可能有一些逆风。最终，美国的 AI 增长政策离不开它们或稀土，所以它们是供应链中的必需品。从根本上说，在那样一次重大崩盘后（即使是假的），恢复需要更长的时间，但也提供了良好的逢低买入机会。但它们年初至今（YTD）已经涨了很多，这就是为什么未来可能会有进一步的波动（例如 $USAR 年初至今上涨 58%）。
英文原文
Rare earth sector from $MP to $USAR sell-off was an algorithmic mistake due to Reuters publishing false information -> retracting it later. However, like Bitcoin's initial liquidation from Binance errors, the damage has been done. I see Warsh is unfortunately net bearish $CRCL. So it's extremely nuanced since these two things contradict each other: shrinking the balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening) is "tightening," while cutting rates is "easing. But if the Fed cuts (bullish for crypto/AI growth) and long-term Treasury yields stay elevated because of a smaller Fed balance sheet, Circle can continue to earn high interest on its reserves while the broader crypto market rallies. (this is goldilocks scenario). Otherwise QT and rate cuts just hurts Circle a lot. But despite this, USDC volume/supply remains ATHs above $70B+ and I remain bearish-neutral short term, very bullish long term at $14.9B MC. Going back to rare earths, it's essentially neutral. Like Samsung/TSM in foreign countries, even though there might be some headwinds. Ultimately US policy with AI growth cannot function without them + or rare earths so they're a necessity in the supply chain. Fundamentally after a major crash like that (even if it's fake) recovery takes longer but presents good dip opportunities. But they're still up a ton YTD, which is why there might be further volatility ahead (eg. $USAR 58% YTD).
-
白银暴跌引发连锁清算，建议转向AI及高现金流标的防御。
市场正经历清算级联效应。白银的崩盘现已蔓延至加密货币及美/外股市。具体情况如下： 以下是预期走势： - $BMNR（加密货币） - $RKLB（高贝塔值） - $SNDK（AI） - 至三星（外国股票）。 “Warsh”美联储主席提名是引发抛售的初始触发因素，市场将其视为“鹰派”->量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening）。然而，这是一个误解，因为美联储主席很可能与特朗普的政策保持一致，且由于AI因素，其近期立场偏向短期鸽派+降息。 然而，抛售的技术性原因是CME+交易所控制强制白银保证金清算。随着白银日内暴跌33%，机构被迫清算其他标的并进行对冲。因此，我们看到了： 1. 恐惧传染——当避险金属如此暴跌时，会在其他板块引发恐慌。 2. 避险情绪——投资者恐慌性抛售“风险”资产和股票/转向美元和国债。 为了进行防御性操作： - 最好将投机性标的重新配置为符合新政策的自由现金流（FCF）/盈利型多头头寸。 - 如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 跌至 $MU、$TSM、$JPM、三星等标的将受益最大。 - 从 $PYPL 到 $SNAP 等已处于低位（具有强劲预期自由现金流）且被进一步抛售的股票，呈现出不错的反弹上行空间。 尤其是鉴于美联储主席预计对从AI到银行业的许多板块持看涨态度，且由AI增长+生产力推动的降息预期强烈。 警告： - 更多不产生巨大自由现金流的投机性小盘股（从 $ONDS 到 $RKLB）可能因与高贝塔板块抛售的相关性而面临更大风险。 - 像 $BMNR 这样持有非流动性资产（例如Mr. Beast公司2亿美元）的杠杆基金，以及像 $QBTS 或 $RGTI 这样的投机性标的，可能会最终看到重置/清零。 - 像 $JD 到 $BABA 这样的外国市场标的或像 $MELI 这样的新兴市场标的可能会受到流动性流失的影响。 当然，日内交易者可能会在高贝塔标的的反弹时机上大显身手（例如，如果 $ETH 闪崩12%至$2.1K -> 恢复至$2.3K）。 话虽如此，这并不是说“卖出高贝塔”。 鉴于以太坊从$3k+跌至$2.18k，这只是对目前在高贝塔板块使用保证金的人发出的警告： 如果高贝塔股票出现持续抛售，风险相当大。（我个人将以太坊作为代理指标）。 这只是个人市场观点，但总体而言，随着中期选举临近+更多预期的降息+财报表现创历史新高（例如 $SNDK 的爆发），对市场保持极度看涨是好的。 市场在中期选举前看到绿色V型复苏只是时间问题。 基本面没有改变，但表象和短期流动性改变了。
英文原文
Markets are seeing liquidation cascades. Silver's crash is now extending into other markets like Crypto and US/Foreign stocks. Here's what's happening: And here's what to expect from: - $BMNR (Crypto) - $RKLB (High-Beta) - $SNDK (AI) - to Samsung (Foreign). The "Warsh" Fed Chair nomination was the initial trigger that caused the selloff as markets viewed him as a "Hawk" -> Quantitative Tightening. However, this is a mistake as the fed chair is likely aligned with Trump's policies, and his recent stance is dovish short term + rate cuts, due to AI. However, the technical reason for the selloff was CME + Exchange controls forcing margin liquidations on Silver. As silver crashed 33% intra-day, institutions are forced to liquidate other names and hedge. So, we're seeing both: 1. Fear Contagion - when a safe haven metal plummets this much, this causes a panic across other sectors. 2. Flight to Safety - investors panic-sell "risky" assets and stocks / move to U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds. To play defensive: - It's best to reposition speculative names into FCF/profit generating long positions aligning with these new policies. - Names like $GOOGL, $NVDA down to $MU, $TSM, $JPM, Samsung, and others stand to benefit the most. - Stocks that are already at lows (with strong expected FCF) from $PYPL to $SNAP that are being sold off even more present decent recovery upside. Especially since the Fed chair is expected to be bullish for many sectors from AI to Banking, with rate-cuts fueled by AI growth + productivity. For a warning: - More speculative small cap names (that don't generate massive FCF) from $ONDS to $RKLB may be more at risk due to correlation to high-beta sector selloffs. - Leveraged funds like $BMNR with iliquid assets (eg. $200M in Mr. Beast's company) to speculative names like $QBTS or $RGTI may finally see a reset/wipeout. - Foreign market names like $JD to $BABA or emerging market names like $MELI may be impacted from a liquidity drain. But of course, day-traders may have a field day timing rebounds on high-beta names (eg. if $ETH flash crashes 12% to $2.1K -> recovery to $2.3K). That being said this is not saying "Sell High-Beta". This is just a warning to people with margin on high-beta sectors now that given Ethereum's flush from $3k+ down to $2.18k: There's considerable risk if there's an extended selloff on high-beta stocks. (I've been personally looking at Ethereum as a proxy). This is just personal market opinion, but generally as midterms come up + more expected rate cuts + earnings coming out higher than ever (eg. $SNDK's blowout), it's good to remain extremely bullish on the market. And it's just a matter of time before markets see a green V recovery before midterms. Fundamentals haven't changed but optics have and short-term liquidity have.
-
对比通过ETF间接持有与直接持有SK海力士的成本与优劣。
@CapSimplified 问得好。给大家一个提示(PSA)，关于 $EWY 和 $FLKR。在韩国方面，这两者对 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)/三星的敞口约为 50%。 对于直接投资 SK 海力士，欧洲市场有 $HY9H。但价差(spreads)高得离谱，除非你是长期持有，否则交易体验极差。而且你一开始可能就会亏损 0.5%-1%。
英文原文
@CapSimplified Good question. PSA to everyone else, $EWY and $FLKR. ~50% exposure to Sk Hynix/Samsung for KR. For direct SK Hynix, $HY9H for EUR. But the spreads are insanely high, so it's really bad to trade unless you're holding long term. And you're probably losing .5%-1% off the bat.
-
提供SK海力士与三星数据供事实核查
@stefano_kerope 这是 SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 和三星(Samsung) 的数据，供想核实事实的人参考。 https://t.co/v24Y93epWT
英文原文
@stefano_kerope These were the figures for Sk Hynix and Samsung for people that wanted to fact-check. https://t.co/v24Y93epWT
-
摩根士丹利预测2027年存储巨头利润登顶，确认存储超级周期已至。
存储超级周期已至。 据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最新报告估算： - 三星(Samsung)净利润约1630亿美元 - 海力士(SK Hynix)约1209亿美元。 这将使三星成为全球最赚钱的公司，甚至超过$NVDA和$GOOGL。 以下是前十名排名： 1. 三星电子 ~1630亿美元 (2027年) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL 1524.4亿美元 3. Apple $APPL 1330.5亿美元 4. Microsoft $MSFT 1276.5亿美元 5. 海力士 $SKHYNIX 1209亿美元 (2027年) 6. NVIDIA $NVDA 1165.1亿美元 7. Amazon $AMZN 952.2亿美元 8. Meta $META 850.9亿美元 9. 伯克希尔哈撒韦 $BRK 815亿美元 10. 摩根大通 $JPM 728.1亿美元 这是基于companiesmarketcap来源的2027年前瞻净利润与过去十二个月(TTM)净利润的对比。感谢@jukan05提供摩根士丹利报告。上述数据排除了沙特阿美(National companies)等国有企业。 来自$MU、三星和海力士的存储超级周期显然已经到来。
英文原文
The Memory Supercycle is here. New reports from Morgan Stanley est. - Samsung's net profit ~$163.0B USD - SK Hynix's ~$120.9B USD. That would make Samsung the most profitable company in the world, even more than $NVDA and $GOOGL. Here are the top 10 rankings: 1. Samsung Electronics ~$163.0B (2027) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL $152.44B 3. Apple $APPL $133.05B 4 Microsoft $MSFT $127.65B 5. Sk Hynix $120.9B (2027 6. NVIDIA $NVDA $116.51B 7. Amazon $AMZN $95.22B 8 Meta$META $85.09B 9. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $81.5B 10. JPMorgan Chase $JPM $72.81B This is forward 2027 net income compared to TTM net income sourced by from companiesmarketcap. Credit to @jukan05 for the Morgan Stanley report. Excluding National companies like Saudi Aramco in these figures. The memory supercyle from $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix is here clearly here.
-
感谢博主互动助力，鼓励其保持加速增长势头。
@beauty_oe @StockSavvyShay 为了获取广泛的信息，我经常查看你的帖子！ 你的账号增长非常快，但我的帖子能爆火也有你很大的功劳（笑）。 粉丝越多，增长就越呈加速态势。保持这个势头加油！ :)
英文原文
@beauty_oe @StockSavvyShay いつも幅広い情報をチェックするために、君の投稿をよく見させてもらってるよ！ 君のアカウントも伸びるのがすごく早かったけど、僕の投稿がバズったのもかなりの部分で君のおかげだよ（笑） フォロワーが増えれば増えるほど、加速度的に伸びていくもんだよね。その調子で頑張って！ :)
-
金银暴跌致短期流动性流失，但美联储主席看多AI，中期前景乐观。
我认为白银/黄金暴跌会导致全面（比特币、以太坊、$SPY、中盘股等）的短期流动性流失。新任美联储主席可能是你见过的最大的AI多头之一，他主张降息以引导AI增长+生产力提升。因此，一旦白银/黄金抛售被买回，中期前景真的非常棒。
英文原文
I see it as a short term liquidity drain across the board (Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPY, mid-cap, etc) from Silver/Gold crash. The new Fed Chair is probably one of the biggest AI bulls you will ever see and is arguing for rate cuts to funnel AI growth + productivity. So really great medium term once the silver/gold selloff gets bought back.
-
贵金属暴跌引发流动性真空，短期利空但中长期利好AI科技股。
周五白银下跌28%，黄金下跌8.35%，估计蒸发了约7.34万亿美元。这造成了巨大的流动性真空，导致比特币、科技股和小盘股等其他资产被抛售，以满足追加保证金通知或筹集现金。考虑到商品交易所(CME)可能在2日再次提高几个百分点的保证金要求，这很可能是一次短期（例如24-48小时）的清洗。然而，中长期来看这实际上是看涨的。强势美元使人工智能(AI)公司能够以更低的成本在全球进行采购，而沃什(Warsh)的“AI生产力繁荣”论点允许短期降息，这将推动高增长科技股。
英文原文
Silver dropped 28% and Gold dropped 8.35% on Friday, est. ~$7.34T wiped out. This creates a large liquidity vacuum where other assets from Bitcoin, tech, to small cap gets sold off to meet margin calls or raise cash. Is this likely a short term (eg. 24-48) hour flush, with CME raising margin requirements by another few percent on the 2nd. However, medium-long term this is actually bullish. A strong dollar makes the AI companies the ability to buys globally cheaper, and Warsh’s "AI Productivity Boom" thesis allows short term rate cuts, which fuel high-growth tech.
-
解析新任美联储主席 Warsh 政策对 AI、金属、加密及全球股市的差异化影响。
Kevin Warsh 是下一任美联储主席。 市场可能会误以为他是一只“鹰派”。 但他 2026 年的实际立场是微妙的。 以下是他的政策及其对市场的影响： 1. AI/半导体（$NVDA, $MU）：极度看涨 2. 金属（白银、黄金）：极度看跌 3. 加密货币（$BTC, $CRCL）：悖论式看涨 4. 银行与金融（$JPM, $BOA）：看涨 5. 住房与房地产：混合/不确定 6. 可再生能源：看跌 7. 小盘股（$RUT）：看涨 8. 外国股票（日本、韩国）：具有韧性 - 新兴市场（EM）：极度看跌 - 中国与香港：看跌 - 欧洲（$VGK, $EZU）：谨慎 1. AI/半导体（从 Nvidia 到 Micron）：极度看涨 Warsh 是 AI 多头。 在 2025 年底，他认为 AI 是一种强大的抗通胀力量。他相信 AI 驱动的生产力提升将使经济在不会引发通胀的情况下快速增长。 这种“生产力繁荣”为他提供了智力上的“掩护”，即使经济保持强劲，他也支持降息。（《美联储破碎的领导层》，2025 年 11 月 16 日《华尔街日报》） 这与他早期立场大相径庭，当时市场预计他会是僵化的通胀鹰派（希望利率更高的人）。 他倡导降息并希望加速 AI 发展。 2. 金属（白银、黄金）：极度看跌 投资者使用黄金作为对冲弱势美元和“印钞”的工具。因为 Warsh 希望缩减资产负债表并关闭“印钞机”，持有黄金的主要理由正在减弱。强势美元使得金属对国际买家来说更昂贵。 话虽如此，白银日内 33% 的下跌主要是由其他因素造成的，例如保证金变动引发的连锁清算，尽管新任美联储主席可能起到了次要作用。 3. 加密货币（$BTC, $CRCL）：悖论式看涨 他曾著名地表示：“如果你不到 40 岁，比特币就是你的新黄金。”他将比特币视为合法的价值储存手段，并认为这是从实物金属向代际转变。 他将区块链视为“最新、最酷的软件”，并相信美国必须在此领域保持领先，以在全球竞争中保持经济竞争力。 然而；“悖论”：为何价格下跌： 市场意识到，虽然 Warsh 希望降低利率，但他也希望美联储资产负债表更小。 投资者害怕我们进入“降息但不量化宽松（QE）”的时代。你可能会得到更便宜的贷款，但不会得到通常将 $BTC 推向历史新高的巨大“资金墙”。 所以我们有一个人对加密货币技术看涨，但他的货币纪律可能会损害短期流动性。 4. 银行与金融：看涨 由于他在摩根士丹利的经历以及对“使命蔓延”的直言不讳的批评，Warsh 是银行业界的宠儿。预计他将回滚复杂的银行资本要求（如巴塞尔协议 III）。分析师认为这对区域性和小盘银行是一个重大利好，因为它释放了用于贷款的资本。 5. 住房与房地产：混合 他希望激进地降低联邦基金利率。这将立即降低可调利率抵押贷款（ARMs）和建筑贷款的成本。 然而，看跌的情况是 Warsh 强烈反对美联储持有 2 万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。许多经济学家警告，这可能会推高 30 年期固定抵押贷款利率（可能升至 7% 或 8%），即使美联储正在降低其他利率。 6. 可再生能源：看跌 他打算让美联储退出全球气候团体（如绿色金融系统网络）并结束银行的“气候压力测试”。 在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任内，美联储鼓励银行在贷款中考虑气候风险。Warsh 希望结束这种做法，这实际上消除了使绿色项目更容易从主要银行获得优惠贷款条款的“监管推动”。 7. 小盘股 Warsh 明确表示，他希望美联储关注经济的“真正驱动力”，即中小企业和企业家，而不是华尔街的“娇生惯养的王子”。 预计 Warsh 将领导大幅回滚复杂的银行资本要求。这对小盘股强烈看涨。他打算通过减轻从事大多数小企业贷款的小型和区域性银行的监管负担，扩大小企业获得资本的途径。 8. 外国股票 预计 Warsh 将在受益于强劲美国经济和易受强势美元及全球流动性收紧影响的国家之间造成分裂。 日本/韩国（三星、SK 海力士等）：日本和韩国“没问题”，因为它们拥有 Kevin Warsh 认为将拯救美国经济的 AI 和机器人交易的物理瓶颈。 通常，强势美元对外国股票不利，但对于日本和韩国来说，这是一种竞争武器： - 出口提振：由于他们的大多数 AI 和机器人合同以美元计价，强势美元意味着他们的收入（换算回日元等）大幅膨胀。 - 对美国更便宜：Warsh 的“强势美元”政策使得日本机器人和韩国芯片对美国公司来说更便宜。这加速了 Warsh 想要的“生产力繁荣”，同时增加了这些外国科技巨头的利润。 中国：强势美元给人民币带来压力，使中国人民银行（中国央行）更难降息以刺激其 struggling 的经济。 新兴市场：强势美元使得新兴国家偿还美元计价债务的成本更高。 欧洲：美元复苏可能会压低欧元，这有助于欧洲出口，但增加了其能源进口成本。 _ 周五，随着白银/黄金暴跌，市场大幅抛售，对冲操作抽走了系统中的流动性。 市场可能会将 Warsh 误认为是历史上的鹰派。 然而，最近的声明显示他短期内偏向鸽派，并支持由 AI 加速的降息。 市场目前正在定价同时降息和缩减资产负债表的可能性，但总体而言，预计从 AI 到小盘成长的许多交易将继续进行。
英文原文
Kevin Warsh is the next Federal Reserve Chair. Markets may confuse him as a "Hawk". His actual stance in 2026 is nuanced. Here's his policies and how they affect the markets: 1. AI/Semis ( $NVDA, $MU): Extremely Bullish 2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish 3. Crypto ( $BTC, $CRCL ): Paradoxically bullish 4. Banking & Financials ( $JPM, $BOA ): Bullish 5. Housing & Real Estate: Mixed/Uncertain 6. Renewable Energy: Bearish 7. Small-Caps ( $RUT ) : Bullish 8. Foreign Stocks (Japan, Korea): Resilient - Emerging Markets (EM): Extremely Bearish - China & Hong Kong: Bearish - Europe ( $VGK, $EZU): Cautious 1. AI/Semis ( Nvidia to Micron ): Extremely Bullish Warsh is an AI Bull. In late 2025, he argued that AI is a powerful dis-inflationary force. He believes AI-driven productivity gains will allow the economy to grow rapidly without triggering inflation. This "productivity boom" gives him the intellectual "cover" to support rate cuts even if the economy remains strong. (The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership, November 16, 2025 WSJ) This is much different than his earlier stances where markets expected him to be a rigid inflation hawk (someone who wants higher rates). He is advocating for cuts and wants to accelerate AI development. 2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish Investors use gold as a hedge against a weak dollar and "money printing." Because Warsh wants to shrink the balance sheet and turn off the "printing press," the primary reason for holding gold is diminishing. A stronger U.S. Dollar is making metals more expensive for international buyers. That being said the 33% intraday silver drop was mainly from other factors such as cascading liqudation from margin changes, though the new Fed chair likely played a minor role. 3. Crypto ( $BTC, $CRCL ): Paradoxically bullish He famously stated, "If you're under 40, Bitcoin is your new gold." He views Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value and a generational shift away from physical metals. He views the blockchain as "the newest and coolest software" and believes the U.S. must lead in this space to remain economically competitive against global rivals. However; The "Paradox": Why Prices are Dropping: The market is realizing that while Warsh wants lower interest rates, he also wants a smaller Fed balance sheet. Investors are terrified that we are entering an era of "Rate Cuts without QE." You might get cheaper loans, but you won't get the massive "wall of money" that usually sends $BTC to all-time highs. So we have a guy bullish on the technology of crypto, but his monetary discipline might hurt short-term liquidity. 4. Banking & Financials: Bullish Warsh is a favorite of the banking sector due to his experience at Morgan Stanley and his vocal criticism of "mission creep." He is expected to roll back complex bank capital requirements (like Basel III). Analysts see this as a major win for regional and small-cap banks, as it frees up capital for lending. 5. Housing & Real Estate: Mixed He wants to cut the Federal Funds Rate aggressively. This would immediately lower the cost of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) and construction loans. However, the bear case is that Warsh is a fierce opponent of the Fed owning $2 trillion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Many economists warn this could push the 30-year fixed mortgage rate higher (potentially toward 7% or 8%) even as the Fed is cutting other interest rates. 6. Renewable Energy: Bearish He intends to withdraw the Fed from global climate groups (like the Network for Greening the Financial System) and end "climate stress tests" for banks. Under Jerome Powell, the Fed encouraged banks to consider climate risks in their lending. Warsh wants to end this, which effectively removes the "regulatory nudge" that made it easier for green projects to get favorable loan terms from major banks. 7. Small-Caps Warsh has explicitly stated that he wants the Federal Reserve to focus on the "true drivers of the economy", small businesses and entrepreneurs, rather than just the "pampered princes" of Wall Street. Warsh is expected to lead a significant rollback of complex banking capital requirements. This is strongly bullish for small caps. He intends to broaden access to capital for small firms by reducing the regulatory burden on the small and regional banks that do the majority of small-business lending. 8. Foreign Stocks Warsh is expected to createa a divide between countries that benefit from a strong U.S. economy and those that are vulnerable to a stronger U.S. Dollar and tighter global liquidity. Japan/Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix, etc): Japan and Korea are "fine" because they own the physical bottlenecks of the AI and robotics trades that Kevin Warsh believes will save the U.S. economy. Usually, a strong USD is bad for foreign stocks, but for Japan and Korea, it’s a competitive weapon: - Export Boost: Since most of their AI and robotics contracts are priced in USD, a stronger dollar means their revenue (when converted back to Yen, etc.) is massively inflated. - Cheaper for the U.S.: Warsh’s "Strong Dollar" policy makes Japanese robots and Korean chips cheaper for American companies to buy. This accelerates the "Productivity Boom" Warsh wants while padding the profits of these foreign tech giants. China: A stronger dollar puts pressure on the Yuan, making it harder for the PBoC (China's central bank) to cut their own rates to stimulate their struggling economy. Emerging Markets: A stronger U.S. Dollar makes it much more expensive for emerging countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. Europe: Dollar recovery could push the Euro lower, which helps European exports but increases their energy import costs. _ On Friday, markets sold off sharply on Silver/Gold crashing, and hedging pulled liquidity out of the system. Markets might confuse Warsh as a historical hawk. However, recent statements show he's near term dovish and supports lower rates, accelerated by AI. Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reductions but generally, many trades from AI to small cap growth are expected to continue.
-
博主因安全风险移交 Epstein 档案，回归基本面与供应链研究。
我收到了关于 Masha Prusakova 和 Nikolai Mushegian 的信息，这与公开报道有所不同。在审阅材料后，我意识到对于个人研究者而言，持有涉及刑事案件和 Epstein 档案的此类信息风险过高。为了保障个人安全并保护消息源机密，我已将所有相关材料分散移交至美联社(AP)和华尔街日报(WSJ)的调查部门。我将不再持有原始文件或证据。我现在完全退出此案，不再对此发表评论。我的工作将重新专注于基本面市场研究和供应链分析。
英文原文
I have received information regarding Masha Prusakova and Nikolai Mushegian that differs from public accounts. After reviewing the materials, I’ve realized that this information is too high-risk for an individual researcher to hold safely regarding the criminal case and Epstein files. For my own personal safety and to protect source confidentiality, I have decentralized all relevant materials to the investigative desks of the AP and WSJ. I will no longer hold the original files or evidence. I am now stepping away from this case entirely and will not be commenting further. My work is returning exclusively to fundamental market research and supply chain analysis.
-
MakerDAO创始人离奇溺亡，疑与爱泼斯坦文件有关。
MakerDAO 的创始人溺亡于同一天上午，也就是这条帖子发布后的 5 小时。官方报告称这是一起“游泳事故”。更深入的调查显示，据报道他游泳时“穿着全套衣服，口袋里还装着钱包”。也许我们最好不要再从新的爱泼斯坦文件中深挖这些事情了。
英文原文
The founder of MakerDAO drowned the same morning, 5 hours after this post. Official reports state it was a “swimming accident”. Deeper research found he was reportedly “fully clothed and with a wallet in his pocket” while swimming. Maybe it’s best to not look into these things anymore from the new Epstein files.
-
列举五大行操纵白银历史，暗示2026年暴跌或为再次操纵。
5家主要银行因操纵白银市场被刑事起诉。 这些罚款总额超过12亿美元，罪名是“通过幌骗和价格操纵来操纵白银市场”。 周五白银暴跌28%，引发数万亿美元损失。 以下是指控详情： 1. 摩根大通（$JPM，9.2亿美元，2020年）：JPM向美国司法部承认在白银市场操纵中行为不当。 2. 加拿大丰业银行（$BNS，1.275亿美元，2020年）：美国司法部指控其“在白银市场中进行欺诈性和操纵性交易”。 3. 汇丰银行（$HSBC，7660万美元，2018-2023年）：商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）对其2011-2020年的幌骗行为进行执法。 4. 德意志银行（$DB，7550万美元，2016-2021年）：涉及白银定盘价结算及CFTC对1999-2014年操纵行为的行动。 5. 摩根士丹利（$MS，150万美元，2019年）：CFTC对其2013-2014年幌骗行为的民事处罚。 来源：Navnoor Bawa。 在2008-2016年间，这五家主要银行通过幌骗、价格操纵和基准操纵系统性地操纵贵金属市场。 监管机构发现了他们。罚款和定罪跨越了2016-2025年。 这是历史上白银市场被操纵并被掩盖的实质性证据。 而且，随着2026年当前的白银暴跌，市场可能正在再次目睹这一幕。
英文原文
5 Major Banks were criminally charged for manipulating Silver markets. These fines totaled $1.2B+ for "manipulation of silver markets through spoofing and price rigging". Silver crashed 28% on Friday, triggering trillions of losses Here were the charges: 1. JPMorgan ($920M , 2020): JPM admitted wrongdoing for market manipulation of Silver to the US DoJ. 2. Scotiabank ($127.5M, 2020): US DoJ - "Fraudulent and manipulative trading practices in the markets for silver" 3. HSBC ($76.6M, 2018–2023): CFTC enforcement for 2011–2020 spoofing 4. Deutsche Bank ($75.5M, 2016–2021): Silver fix settlement and CFTC actions for 1999–2014 rigging 5. Morgan Stanley ($1.5M, 2019): CFTC civil penalty for 2013–2014 spoofing Credit: Navnoor Bawa. Between 2008–2016 five of these major banks systematically manipulated precious metals markets through spoofing, price rigging, and benchmark manipulation. Regulators caught them. Fines and convictions spanned 2016–2025. This was concrete evidence of market manipulation of silver historically that was swept under the rug. And, it's possible markets are witnessing it again with the current silver crash of 2026.
-
确认坍塌后果，提示钽供应瓶颈对AI硬件供应链的潜在影响。
是的，这确实令人痛心。初步的坍塌报告发生在29日，但后果的规模刚刚得到确认。关于二级效应，许多投资者并没有深入追溯晶圆厂 $TSM 或像 $NVDA 这样的芯片制造商所使用的原材料上游，但在企业级固态硬盘(SSD)到GPU的钽(tantalum)应用中，替代品（如铌(Niobium)）非常有限。所以只是想分享这条新闻以及一些供大家调查的潜在行动项。
英文原文
Yes this is incredibly sad. Initial collapse reports happened on the 29th, but scale of the aftermath was confirmed just now. In regards to second order effects, many investors don't really go upstream to the raw materials that fabs $TSM or chipmakers like $NVDA use but there's limited substitutes (eg. Niobium) for tantalum in enterprise ssds to gpus. So just wanted to share the news and some potential action items for people to investigate.
-
Metropolitan银行倒闭为孤立事件，$MCB或成算法误判下的最大Alpha。
谢谢。在看到一家区域性银行倒闭的新闻后，我正在寻找不同的多空机会。看起来 Metropolitan 是一个孤立事件，与 Silver 或其他银行无关。不过，如果周一算法出错，$MCB 可能是最大的超额收益(alpha)来源。
英文原文
Thanks. Was looking for different short/long opportunities after seeing the news of a regional bank collapse. Looks like Metropolitan was an isolated incident, not related to silver or others. $MCB is probably the biggest alpha in case algorithms mess that up on Monday though.
-
祝贺 PhotonCap 粉丝数突破 9000。
@PhotonCap 恭喜粉丝突破 9K+！🍻
英文原文
@PhotonCap Congrats on 9K+ followers! 🍻