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解析微软Maia 300供应链，指出AAOI和MRVL为光模块核心受益者。
个人研究：$MSFT Maia 300 供应链。 根据 $MRVL 的报告，瑞银(UBS)预计2027年前 Maia 出货量将超100万颗。 预计 Maia ASIC 量产将带来超180亿美元流向供应商。 资金流向如下： 1. $MRVL - 营收80-120亿美元（~30-40%利润率），作为主要受益者。他们设计数字底层架构（SerDes，互连），从 SK Hynix 购买 HBM4 内存，支付 TSMC 的 2nm 晶圆和 CoWoS 封装费用，并将成品模块卖给微软。 当 Maia 在2026年底至2027年初开始量产时，鉴于其带来的巨大营收，Marvell 可能会迎来大幅重估。 2. 光网络架构：约30亿至40亿美元 主要受益者：Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI)，Coherent ($COHR)，Innolight Maia 集群需要1:1或更高的光收发器与GPU比例。对于1.6T速度（Maia 300所需），每个节点的光学内容估计超过3,000美元（每个加速器约6个800G/1.6T模块）。 这里 AAOI 大获全胜：与市值700亿美元的 $MRVL 不同，$AAOI 是一家25亿美元的公司。即使只获得这块30亿美元蛋糕的20-30%（6-9亿美元），也将使其当前年化经常性收入(ARR)翻三倍，但具体份额取决于其德州磷化铟(InP)工厂的扩产情况（可能更多或更少）。 因此，Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) 和 Marvell 的光学 DSP 业务是隐形赢家，受益于连接这些巨型芯片所需的1.6T升级周期。 像 $TSM 这样的公司会增加30-40亿美元营收，但相对于其1000多亿美元的营收来说，这只是中等体量。（仅说明 TSM 体量之大） 硅基 BOM 拆解： 1. 计算逻辑 (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (设计), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. 内存 (估计 HBM4? (6-8层堆叠), 估计值) SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O 与缓存 Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. 先进封装 - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. 散热方案 - 微流道冷板 / TIM ($200-400) 6. 杂项 (大电流电感, 电容) ($150-$200) 硅基 BOM 总计：$7,860 - $10,550 这非常粗略，未涉及无源器件/基板/盖板 (Ibiden, Unimicron)，测试与组装 (Advantest, Teradyne) 等。 现在如果我们深入看光学 BOM 以及 $MSFT 在空心光纤和 OCS 方面的布局： DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh 引擎 (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) 激光源 (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) 收发器组装: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) 光纤布线: 空心光纤 / MPO ($MSFT) ($200 - $300) 光学 BOM 总计~$2,300 - $3,600~占系统总成本的25% 我们已经确立 $LITE 和 Innolight 是光子学的两大主要玩家（在 $NVDA 和所有超大规模云厂商 ASIC 中） 然而，$AAOI 的市值仅为 $MRVL 和 $LITE 的一小部分，作为小盘股，Maia 的机会对其股票更具变革性。 另需注意，富邦研究(Fubon Research)估计 Maia300 芯片将于2026年底开始生产，约30万至40万颗，2027年增至120万至150万颗，但我们仅采用瑞银的~100万颗数据。（因此实际爬坡可能更多） 但向1.6T的转变以及对空心光纤/OCS网络高功率激光器的特定需求是一个巨大的顺风。如果 AAOI 获得 Maia 光学 BOM 的一部分，他们到2027年仅从一个客户那里就能使 ARR 翻三倍或四倍（不包括 $AMZN）。 风险：主要风险是资格认证失败。如果他们的激光器未能通过微软严格的可靠性测试，他们可能会被 $LITE 一夜之间取代。 然而，Maia 300 的量产标志着超大规模云厂商 ASIC 交易的开始，关键供应商已就位。 从2026-2027年底这一特定 ASIC 中受益最大的公司？ 看起来是 $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM 和 SK Hynix。 警告：这是基于公开材料+深度研究+映射的推测性研究+建模。没有公开的新闻证实这些信息，不要将其视为事实。
英文原文
Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain. On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027. An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp. Here's where it goes: 1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing (SerDes, interconnects), buy the HBM4 memory from SK Hynix, pay TSMC for the 2nm wafers and CoWoS packaging, and sell the finished module to Microsoft. We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in. 2. The Optical Fabric: ~$3 Billion to $4 Billion Primary Beneficiaries: Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ), Coherent ( $COHR ), Innolight Maia clusters require a 1:1 or higher ratio of transceivers to GPUs. For 1.6T speeds (required for Maia 300), the optical content per node is estimated at $3,000+ (approx. 6x 800G/1.6T modules per accelerator). Here AAOI Wins Big: Unlike $MRVL (which is $70B), $AAOI is a $2.5B company. Capturing even 20-30% of this $3B pie ($600M-$900M) would triple + their current ARR, but the amount captured is dependent on their InP Texas Fab scaling (could be a lot more or less). So Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Marvell's optical DSP business are the silent winners, riding the 1.6T upgrade cycle required to interconnect these massive chips. Companies like $TSM gain another $3-4B revenue, but that's medium volume compared to their $100B+ revenue. (just speaking to how much of a giant TSM is) For the silicon BOM breakdown: 1. Compute Logic (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (Design), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. Memory (est. HBM4? (6-8 stacks), estimate). SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O & Cache Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. Advanced Packaging - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. Thermal Solution - Microfluidic Cold Plate / TIM ($200-400) 6. Misc (High-Current Inductors, Caps) ($150-$200) Total Silicon BOM: $7,860 - $10,550 This is really high level doesn't go into Passive/Substrate/Lid (Ibiden, Unimicron), Test & Assembly (Advantest, Teradyne), etc. Now if we look deeper at optical BOM and what $MSFT is doing with hollow core fiber and OCS: DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh Engine (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) Laser Source (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) Transceiver Assembly: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) Fiber Cabling: Hollow Core Fiber / MPO ( $MSFT) ($200 - $300) Total Optical BOM~$2,300 - $3,600~25% of Total System Cost We've established $LITE and Innolight as the two major players in photonics already (within $NVDA and every single hyperscaler ASIC) However, $AAOI MC is a fraction of $MRVL and $LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock. Someting also to note is Fubon Research est Maia300 chip is set to start prod in late 2026 with about 300,000 to 400,000 units, increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 million units in 2027, but we're just going with the ~1M figure from UBS. (so might ramp up more) But the shift to 1.6T and the specific requirement for high-power lasers for hollow-core/OCS networks is a big tailwind. If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027 (not including $AMZN). Risk: The primary risk is qualification failure. If their lasers fail Microsoft’s rigorous reliability testing, they could be replaced by $LITE overnight. However, Maia 300 ramp signals the start of the hyperscaler ASIC trade and key suppliers are there. The companies that benefit the most from this specific ASIC late 2026-2027? Looks like $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM, and SK Hynix. Warning: This is speculative research + modeling given public materials + deep research + mapping. There is no public breakdown and news of this information, do not treat it as a fact.
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澄清MRVL与LITE为两只不同股票，将另写MRVL论点。
@bricked_trades $MRVL 是一个很好的做多标的，我会单独写一篇关于他们在 Maia 300 中角色的投资论点(Thesis)。 但这篇论点其实是关于 $LITE 的……所以是两只不同的股票。
英文原文
@bricked_trades $MRVL is a great long, I'll write a separate thesis on their role in maia 300. This thesis was about $LITE though... So two different stocks.
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某仙股若执行成功，当前定价或低估其在AI集群中的价值。
嗯，不完全是。他们有过执行失败的历史，$AMZN 多年前就将其作为客户剔除。但如果考虑到他们现在手握铜缆到光子学（CPO）的“金票”，以及内存等供应常量，且能在此次成功执行，其当前的仙股定价可能并未计入他们在每个 Trainium 和 Maia 集群中的物料清单（BOM）份额，以及可选的美国磷化铟（InP）晶圆厂。
英文原文
Well not exactly, they have a history of execution failures with $AMZN dropping them as a client many years ago. But if they can execute this time around given their new golden ticket of copper -> photonics and supply constants like memory, their current penny stock pricing probably doesn’t price in their BOM share of every Trainium and Maia cluster they’re a part of + InP fab optionally in US.
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$AAOI 作为 Trainium/Maia 杠杆标的，随微软 ASIC 量产预期重估。
呃，$AAOI 本质上只是 Trainium 和 Maia 的杠杆多头头寸，因为公开信息显示他们不像 $LITE 那样参与 TPU/Blackwell 业务。 Maia 已推迟至 2026 年，量产爬坡可能要到年底并延续至 2027 年。 特别是鉴于传闻 $AAOI 正与微软共同开发新架构，他们很可能会同步扩大规模。 总之，当这两款芯片启动时，我们可能会看到更多相关标的被重新评级。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都想要自己的 ASIC（专用集成电路），这似乎是大势所趋。但关键在于 $AAOI 方面的量产爬坡与执行能力。
英文原文
Uhh $AAOI is just a levered long in Trainium and Maia, since they’re not involved in TPU/Blackwell unlike $LITE from public info. Maia was pushed backed to 2026, with ramp up in likely EOY into 2027. Esp with rumors $AAOI co-developing by new architecture with Microsoft, they’ll likely scale up together. Anyway whenever those two kick into gear, we’ll likely see more things be re-rated. It seems more of an inevitability given every hyperscaler wants their on asic. But main thing is production ramp/execution on the $AAOI side.
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博主分享TEE背景，愿无偿引荐专家协助项目。
我在可信执行环境(TEE)签名/密钥存储领域拥有一些专利，并且曾是RISC-V指令集架构委员会成员。不过那已经是6年前的事了，我完全没再碰过TEE（现在主要是和监管机构聊天，偶尔写写零知识证明(ZKP)/密钥共享的代码）。如果有关于TEE栈+总体范围/想法的更多信息，我可以把你们引荐给一些人。我不想要任何报酬，只是喜欢为有趣的项目做贡献。
英文原文
I have some patents in the tee signatures/key storage space and was formerly in risc-v isa committee. it's been like 6 years tho and haven't touched TEEs at all (mainly just chatting with regulators nowadays and occasional zk/key-sharing coding) i can send some folks your way if there's more info about TEE stack + general scope/idea. dont want any compensation though, just like to contribute to interesting stuff
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回应批评，重申NBIS长期价值及短期错判逻辑。
批评很中肯。我最初在 $NBIS 86美元时发布观点，即便在125美元我仍会买入。 我未曾预期一家远期年度经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元、同比增长超700%且拥有4家各自增长超100%的子公司企业，市值会暴跌40%至190亿美元。 存在1-3个月的短期定价错误（尤其是受宏观压力、套息交易平仓引发的高贝塔资产抛售及临时信贷收紧影响），但我预计所有高确信度标的在6-12个月内将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
Very fair criticism. I first posted about $NBIS at $86 and would still be buying at $125. I did not expect a $7-9B forward ARR company growing 700%+ Y/Y, with 4 different subsidiary companies each growing 100%+ Y/Y to drop 40% to a $19B MC. There's things that are mispriced 1-3 month short term (especially with larger macro overhang with high-beta asset selloffs from carry trade unwind and temporary credit tightening) but I expect all my high conviction picks to outperform 6-12 months out.
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InP成2026新瓶颈，市场重估AAOI与LITE在超大规模云ASIC中的价值。
$AAOI 自今日发布论点以来上涨 24%，$LITE 上涨 5%。 从物料清单(BOM)分析来看，LITE（市值 270 亿美元）因光路交换(OCS)技术而向 TPU Ironwood 倾斜，同时也受益于 NVDA 及所有专用集成电路(ASIC)。 AAOI（市值 25 亿美元）则主要受益于 MSFT MAIA 的量产爬坡和 Amazon Trainium。 磷化铟(InP)就像高带宽内存(HBM)一样，将成为 2026 年的瓶颈，因为它们是这些部署中激光器使用的基础材料。 类似于美光和 SK 海力士的内存瓶颈，市场注意力可能会转向 InP 晶圆厂，例如 $AAOI，它是美国少数几家此类工厂之一（还有 COHR, Macom）。 但相比之下，$LITE 由于 Google TPU 的成功（来自 Meta 和 Anthropic 的采购订单），今年迄今(YTD)已上涨 362%，而 $AAOI 今年迄今仅上涨 7%。 我们主要看到这种情况是因为散户或媒体对 $AMZN Trainium 或 $MSFT Maia 部署缺乏关注，这些部署预计将在 2026-2027 年大规模量产。 然而，由于每个超大规模云服务商都希望降低其自有云平台的推理成本，它们很可能都会成功。 如果我们看到其他超大规模云服务商采用 OCS 以实现 TPU 达到的优化性能，鉴于 $LITE 在该特定领域的垄断地位，预计其估值将比现在进一步提升。 然而，如果我们看到 $MSFT Maia 量产（鉴于 $AAOI 可能正在为他们开发新架构），以及 $AMZN Trainium 量产（40 亿美元权证 + 采购订单），预计 $AAOI 将重新估值。 光电子学和 InP 将成为像内存一样的新瓶颈。 我们可能会看到投资流向下游玩家，如 $COHR、中际旭创(Innolight)、$LITE，以及 2026 年针对特定超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的隐藏杠杆标的如 $AAOI 这一主题。 市场目前正在奖励 Google TPU 供应链，但可能错过了其他超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的量产机会。
英文原文
$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today. From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs. AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium. InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the foundational materials used for lasers in these deployments. Similar to memory bottlenecks with Micron and SK Hynix, we’ll likely see attention drawn to InP fabs, such as $AAOI, which happens to be one of the sole ones in America (COHR,Macom) But compared to $LITE that is up 362% YTD due to the success of Google’s TPU (from Meta and Anthropic purchase orders), $AAOI is only up 7% YTD. We’re largely seeing this because there’s a lack of retail or media attention on the $AMZN Trainium or $MSFT Maia deployments, which are largely expected to ramp up in 2026-2027. However they’re all likely to succeed due to each hyperscaler wanting to lower costs of inference for their own cloud platform. If we see other hyperscalers adopt OCS for optimized performance that the TPU achieved, expect $LITE to re-rate more than they have now given their monopoly in that specific segment. However, if we see $MSFT Maia ramp up (given $AAOI is likely developing a new architecture for them), and $AMZN Trainium ramp up ($4B warrant + purchase orders), expect $AAOI to rerate. Photonics and InP will be the new bottleneck like memory. We’ll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026. The market is currently rewarding the Google TPU supply chain but might be missing other hyperscaler ASIC ramps.
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市场重估LITE在AI芯片中的关键角色，看好明年光子学板块机会。
并非如此！市场开始意识到 $LITE 在每一家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 部署以及 Blackwell 架构中的角色，查看物料清单(BOM)时，其用量相当惊人，尤其是在 TPU v7 中。 LITE 是光子学领域的领导者，但还有其他公司如 $AAOI，它们与微软 Maia 和亚马逊 Trainium（目前尚未有任何动静）紧密相关。 因此，明年光子学领域存在机会。
英文原文
Not really! Markets are starting to realize $LITE's role in every single hyperscaler ASIC deployment + blackwell and when you look at BOM, it's a whopping amount, especially in TPU v7. Lite is the photonics leader but many there's others like $AAOI, which are levered to MSFT Maia and AMZN Trainium (which hasn't moved at all yet). So opportunity in photonics is there next year.
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分析LITE与AAOI在AI芯片供应链中的价值及2026年前景
是的，$LITE 的表现令人惊叹，看到它出现在每一款 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 部署中后更是如此。 然后，当你进行物料清单(BOM)分析并建模 TPU/GPU 部署时，它即使在历史高点(ATH)看起来也被低估了。 接着是 $AAOI，它与 LITE 类似，但更侧重于 AMZN | MSFT 的 ASIC。它是美国少数几家磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂之一，其扩张规模将取决于 Trainium 和 Maia 的表现。它的市值也只有 25 亿美元。 光子学/存储领域在 2026 年将会极其疯狂。
英文原文
Yeah $LITE is incredible after seeing how it's in every single ASIC + $NVDA blackwell deployments. Then once you do BOM analysis and model TPU/GPU deployments, it looks undervalued even at ATHs. Then there's $AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the only InP Fabs in US and will scale up depending on how Trainium and Maia do. It's a $2.5B MC too. Photonics/Memory is going to be extremely crazy in 2026.
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$AAOI 是 $MSFT/$AMZN ASIC 扩产的高弹性隐藏宝石，具极高不对称收益。
在 $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创等公司中，我发现 $LITE 的不对称性（asymmetrical setup）最强，因为它是 Ironwood（含共封装光学(CPO)）、Blackwell 及其他超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC) 的核心。然而，$AAOI 是极致的超额收益（alpha）。尤其是作为 $AMZN Trainium 和 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产的对冲工具，以及美国少数磷化铟(InP) 晶圆厂之一。尽管拥有 $40 亿 $AMZN 认股权证和采购协议，12 月的订单似乎确实是基于 Maia 的集群。有传闻称 $AAOI 似乎正在为 $MSFT 的硅片开发新的光互连架构。尽管超大规模客户 ASIC 炒作和光子学反弹，$AAOI 股价毫无动静，因此在 $20 亿市值下绝对是隐藏宝石。但它高度依赖于 $MSFT 和 $AMZN（鉴于其云部门，它们很可能成功并大规模部署自有 ASIC）。
英文原文
Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs. However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only InP fab in US. Although they have $4B $AMZN warrants + purchase agreements, it does seem likely that Dec's orders were Maia-based clusters. There's rumors that $AAOI seems to be developing a new optical interconnect architecture specifically for $MSFT's silicon too. $AAOI hasn't moved at all, despite hyperscaler ASIC hype + photonic rallies, so it's a hidden gem for sure at $2B MC. However, it is highly levered to $MSFT and $AMZN (which will likely succeed + deploy their own ASICs at scale given their own cloud departments)
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JPM无需收购交易所，合作即可获利。
可能不会，没有理由这样做。鉴于$JPM提供的巨大做市商流动性，他们几乎肯定能享受0%的交易手续费。他们没有理由去收购一家同质化的交易所，从而承担额外的监管麻烦和资产负债表波动。通过与Coinbase合作获得免费执行，他们就能获得交易所的同等优势，然后通过增加一个垂直业务来赚取客户价差利润。
英文原文
Probably not, no reason to. $JPM almost certainty has access to 0% fees for trading given their immense maker liquidity they provide. There's no reason for them to acquire a commoditized exchange, then take on additional regulatory headache and balance sheet volatility. They get the same benefits of an exchange by partnering with Coinbase for free execution, then just profit off customer spread with an additional vertical.
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分析LITE、COHR光子学双寡头地位及AAOI对微软亚马逊ASIC的杠杆看涨逻辑。
我手里只有 $LITE 和 $AAOI 哈哈。但我对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的看法是，它们在光子学(Photonics)领域基本处于双寡头地位。其中 $LITE 额外受益于 Google TPU 的增长杠杆。然后是 $AAOI，它具有极高的超额收益(Alpha)潜力，且是对 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 超大规模云计算厂商专用集成电路(ASIC)的杠杆式看涨押注。目前尚未有行动，也没有大幅上涨（尽管作为光子学玩家，今年反而下跌了12%），因为市场尚未对 Amazon Trainium 或 Microsoft Maia 产生炒作热度。
英文原文
I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics. With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth. Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs. No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).
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LITE因OCS垄断地位及供应瓶颈，受益于AI巨头需求。
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
英文原文
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.
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推荐光子材料供应商AXTI，市值5亿美元。
@manukafirth 另一个不错的标的是 $AXTI，它是 $LITE / 光子学(Photonics) 的材料供应商。市值5亿美元。
英文原文
@manukafirth Another good one is $AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc
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对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.
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因地缘政治原则回避小鹏，但认可其与比亚迪的商业价值。
@investingluc @xiaopenghexpeng 出于不资助地缘政治对手的原则，我避开像 $XPEV 这样的中国公司。尤其是在涉及人工智能(AI)和机器人等军事赋能技术时。否则，$XPEV 和 $BYD 都是非常有意思的公司。
英文原文
@investingluc @xiaopenghexpeng I stay away from Chinese companies like $XPEV just out of principle of not funding geopolitical opponents. Especially when it comes to military enabling technology like AI and robotics. Otherwise $XPEV and $BYD are both very interesting companies.
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作者认为 $CRCL 估值极低，基于其数字美元标准地位，在 $86 大举建仓。
如果 ChatGPT 能结合私人部门稳定币投资经验，撰写 OF 与卡网络之间的对比，我会印象深刻。机构并未对 $31 的价格望而却步，$CRCL 大幅超额认购，且稳定币 GENIUS 法案在 IPO 后通过。如帖中所述，护城河在于其作为结算和数字美元标准的网络效应。尽管可能有 Paxos USD、PayPal USD、SOFI USD 等数百种其他稳定币，但这并不意味着它们能获得广泛采用。USDC 和 USDT 已是双寡头及数字标准。我也提到这是定性论点。对于像 $RKLB 这样非标准公司（如 Circle），我认为不应使用传统估值方法。话虽如此，一家印钞机及数字美元发行商的市值为 $190 亿，被严重低估，我本人在 $86 大举建仓。我只是分享我的论点，你可以自由做反向交易。我鼓励你用行动支持你的观点！
英文原文
I’d be impressed if ChatGPT could write comparisons between OF and card networks alongside personal experiences regarding stablecoin investments in the private sector. Institutions did not balk at $31, $CRCL was vastly oversubscribed and the GENIUS act for stablecoins was passed after IPO. If you read the post, the moat is network effect given its the standard for settlement and digital dollars. There could be hundreds of other stablecoins from Paxos USD, PayPal USD, SOFI USD, and others but that doesn’t mean it will get widespread adoption. USDC and USDT are already the duopoly and digital standard. I also wrote this was the qualitative thesis. On companies like $RKLB that aren’t standard companies (like Circle) I would argue traditional valuation methods shouldn’t be used. That being said, $19B for a money printer and issuer of the currency that’s used for the digital dollar is vastly undervalued and I myself am piling in at $86. I’m just sharing my thesis, you’re free to take the other side of the trade. And I’d encourage you to back up your words!
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建议优化内容实质以通过算法吸引高质量受众。
残酷的现实是，你的帖子风格吸引了错误的受众。受众其实就在那里。 我自己经营一家与加密/银行相关的金融机构，我只看到了你最近那条关于“退出”的帖子（而不是之前的任何帖子），因为 X 算法推荐了它。 从加密领域的个人经验来看，我很感激有来自 Wintermute、Vaneck 的分析师，乃至主要上市公司/对冲基金的首席执行官阅读我的帖子。我经常能与 Perplexity 的团队/创始人以及风险投资公司(VC)的所有者等有趣的人聊天。 从决策者到消费者都在 X 上。 受众就在那里，新算法决定了你的内容是否有足够的实质内容供这些人阅读。这更多是关于改进你的帖子。
英文原文
Harsh reality is that your style of posts attract the wrong audiences. The audience is there. I run a crypto/banking related financial institution myself, and I only saw your most recent quitting post (rather than any of your posts before) because the X algorithm recommended it. From personal experience on the crypto side Im grateful I have analysts from Wintermute, Vaneck, all the way to CEOs of major public company/hedge funds reading my posts. And I get to chat with cool people like the team/founders at Perplexity to owners of VC firms often. All the decision makers down to consumers are on X. The audience is there, the new algorithm decides if your content has enough substance for these people to read it. It’s more about improving your posts
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博主表示若社区能组织月度公开竞赛则愿意参与。
@pepemoonboy 如果能让整个 FinX 社区参与进来，并且每月公开更新进展作为一场比赛，我会加入。 https://t.co/6G2p8enPQX
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I’ll join in if we can get the whole FinX community on this and publicly post updates every month as a competition https://t.co/6G2p8enPQX
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批评博主内容空洞，建议提供有实质深度的内容以吸引受众。
很抱歉，但如果你真的想要受众，问题出在你自己的帖子。别怪 X 平台。 算法会为有实质内容和解释的帖子分发内容（例如这条就很棒，它随机出现在了我的信息流中）。 如果你真的想每天深入探讨你能构建什么，而不是那些一句式的、毫无意义的 Instagram 鸡汤语录，你可能会吸引到普通人。 我相信你是个好人，只是想分享一些关于你方法的建设性批评。
英文原文
I’m sorry but if you actually wanted an audience the problem is your own posts. Don’t blame X. The algorithm distributes content (eg. this one is great, it randomly showed up on my feed) for posts with substance and explanations. If you actually wanted to deep dive every day on what you can build, beyond one sentence inspirational, meaningless fluff IG quotes, you might attract normal people. I’m sure you’re a nice person, just wanted to share constructive criticism in your approach.
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NBIS子公司价值或超IREN市值，仍看好两者。
确实如此。单是 $NBIS 持有的 Clickhouse 和 Avride 股份，在一两年内可能就超过 $IREN 的市值。话虽如此，我依然对两者都持看涨态度。不过有点不公平的是，Nebius 拥有两家源自 Yandex 时代的子公司，其业务正以三位数的同比增速增长。这甚至还没有计入他们的主营业务线。
英文原文
True. Both $NBIS Clickhouse and Avride stakes alone can be worth more than $IREN marketcap in a year or two. That being said I’m still bullish on both. It’s just a bit unfair though Nebius owns 4 subsidiaries from Yandex days growing triple digits y/y. That’s not even accounting for their main business line
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反驳低利率看空 $CRCL 论点，认为其作为数字美元结算网络价值远超传统估值。
低利率确实会影响 $CRCL，这也是主要的看空论点。然而，低利率环境将释放更多 USDC 的供应，并带来相比高息国债收益更多的交易量/交易性收入。Circle 需要将其交易量的变现能力从利息收入（占其利润的 90% 以上）中剥离出来。我上面的论点是，人们不应将其像金融科技(fintech)公司那样估值。如果它成为数字美联储，且 USDC 成为美元在线结算的实际货币，那么该网络及其发行商的价值将远超传统估值。
英文原文
Low interest rates does affect $CRCL and this is the main bear case thesis. However, low interest rates environments would unlock more supply in USDC + more volume/transactional based revenue compared to high interest from treasuries. Circle would need to monetize transactional volume over interest (which makes up 90%+ of their profits) My argument above is that people shouldn’t value it like a fintech though. If it becomes the digital federal reserve and USDC is the de facto settlement currency of the dollar online, both the network and the issuer is worth way beyond traditional valuations
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计划研究Maia，已持AAOI作为LITE的杠杆替代。
@itsthesquonky 我今天会对此做一些研究，谢谢提醒。 我已经持有一些微型股，比如 $AAOI，在我看来它只是 $LITE 的杠杆版，仅仅是为了押注 $MSFT Maia 的放量。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout. I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp. There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it
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质疑 $COIN 估值，认为其交易所业务面临竞争且 USDC 分成优势难保。
关于 $COIN，我略有异议。随着 2026 年与 $CRCL 的合同重新谈判临近，其灵活性远比你想象的低。目前 Coinbase 受益于 50% 的 USDC 收入分成及交易所业务，还有来自托管（如 Blackrock ETFs）的价值。但长期来看，其交易所板块可能会被 $HOOD 和 Bitfinex 等零费率交易所蚕食。至于那 50% 的“金蛋”收入分成：Circle 存在法律漏洞可脱离 Coinbase。我确信 Circle 长期会找到办法。例如，《天才法案》明确禁止稳定币发行方向持有者支付利息 -> 借此合法停止支付分成。或者 50/50 的分成在 2027 年合同谈判中降至 75/25。但你只需 180 亿美元就能获得直接发行商的纯粹非对称收益，而交易所附加部分却需 660 亿美元。
英文原文
For $COIN, slighty disagree. It's a lot less versatile than you think as 2026 contract renegotiation with $CRCL is coming up. Right now Coinbase benefits from 50% USDC rev split + exchange business. Then there's value derived from Custody (eg. Blackrock ETFs). But that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run. As for that 50% revenue split of the golden egg: there's legal loopholes for Circle to depeg from Coinbase. And I'm pretty sure Circle will find a way in the long run. Eg. Genius Act, explicitly bans stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders -> using that to legally stop paying them a split. Or the 50/50 split to drop to something like 75/25 from contract negotiation by 2027. But you can get pure play asymmetry with the direct issuer for $18B or the exchange-add on for $66B.
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解析Circle商业模式：类银行利差+无限扩展，支撑高估值。
别担心！我乐于免费分享观点，主要是为了帮助他人获得满足感。 我通过市场交易获利，所以个人觉得没必要将粉丝变现。 关于那个问题： $CRCL 的商业模式本质上是金融界的“圣杯”：100% 毛利率，零资本成本，以及无限可扩展性。 它简直是一台不停歇的印钞机，这也是其估值/溢价高的原因。 银行：2-4% 利息的“储蓄账户”。他们以 6% 贷出。利差约 2-4%。 Circle：你持有 USDC 时支付 0% 利息。他们通过国债以约 5% 借给美国政府。他们的利差是完整的约 5%。 我故意简化以解释概念（未计入与 $COIN 的收入分成等细节）： 如果 Circle 流通量（USDC）为 600 亿美元：600 亿 × 5% 收益率 = 每年 30 亿美元无风险收入。 看 Tether，2024 年报告利润约 130 亿美元。他们也仅用不到 100 名员工就实现了这一点。他们拿“免费资金”（用户存款），购买国债（安全 5%）+ BTC。 Circle + Tether 的商业模式可以说是世界上最好的： 从用户那里“印”免费钱，以 X% 借给政府，赚取利差。如果美联储降息至 0%，印钞机不会停，只是像银行一样切换到服务/交易相关收入（但显然会受一点影响）。 如果 USDC 扩展到 1 万亿+ 市值或作为数字化美元事实标准的 2 万亿+，若赚取 5%，利润将达（500-1000 亿美元/年）。 而目前 Circle 市值 180-200 亿美元，流通供应量 770 亿美元。 它也是纯软件，因此可以像 Tether 一样以极少员工扩张，不像银行有极高的 overhead（运营开销）。 所以基本上无限可扩展的商业模式（印钞机）结合极高利润率 = 高估值。
英文原文
No worries! I love sharing my thoughts for free mainly for fulfillment in helping others. I make money through markets so I personally don't see any reason why I would need to monetize followers. As for the question: $CRCL's business model is essentially the "Holy Grail" of finance: 100% gross margins, zero cost of capital, and infinite scalability It's literally a non-stop money printer, which is why it yields high valuation/premiums. Banks: 2-4% interest "savings account". They lend it out at 6%. Margin ~2-4%. Circle: Pays you 0%. (when you hold USDC). They lend it to the US Government (via Treasuries) at ~5%. Their margin is the full ~5%. I've dumbing it down on purpose to explain the concept (not factoring in stuff like revenue split with $COIN) but: If Circle has $60 Billion in circulation (USDC): $60B × 5% yield = $3 Billion/year risk-free revenue. If we look at Tether, in 2024, Tether reported ~$13 Billion in profit. They achieved this with fewer than 100 employees too. They took the "free money" (users' deposits), bought Treasuries (safe 5%) + BTC as well. Circle + Tether business models are arguably the best in the world: Print free money (from users), lend at X% to gov, pocket the spread. If Fed cuts to 0%, the money printer doesn't stop, it just shifts gears like banks to service/TX related revenues (but obviously hurts a bit) If USDC expands to $1T+ marketcap or $2T+ as the the de facto standard for a digitalized dollar, profits will be ($50-$100B /year) if they make 5% off that. And right now Circle is a $18-20B marketcap with $77B circulating supply. It's pure software too, so it can expand off low employee counts like Tether, unlike banks that have extremely high overhead. So basically infinitely scalable business model (money printer) combined with extremely high margins = high valuation.
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博主在 $CRCL 大跌后建仓，计划长期持有以捕捉上行空间。
谢谢，我等了很久才建立 $CRCL 的长期头寸。我们经历了加密板块清算、流通盘解禁、降息以及高贝塔股票抛售，最终导致股价从高点下跌 70%。现在 Circle 终于回到了一个合理的价位，因此我在股价跌至 $70 时建立了头寸。我最初在 IPO 期间就下了买单，但随后股价涨至 $250+。自那以来有很多积极进展，所以从投资者角度来看，我非常乐意持有并进行多年长期投资。云服务提供商(CSP)策略也不错，但我更贪婪地想要捕捉上行空间。
英文原文
Thanks, I was waiting forever to build long positions on $CRCL. We had crypto sector liquidations, float unlock, interest rate cuts, and high beta stock selloff, finally causing a 70% drop from the highs. Now Circle is finally at a respectable price again, so I built up positions on the drop to $70. I did originally place buy orders during the IPO but then it just went to $250+. There’s been a lot more positive developments since so from an investor’s perspective, very happy hold + multi year long for me. CSPs is also a good strategy, but I’m a little more greedy trying to capture the upside.
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USDT与USDC对比：Tether庞大但合规困难，USDC已成受监管机构标准
这是个很好的问题，所以这是我的细致看法，关于USDT对比$CRCL USDC。我能给出的最好例子是Onlyfans和信用卡网络。信用卡网络实际上并不被允许与OF合作，但由于其处理的交易量巨大仍然照做。同样，Tether与美国政府也是爱恨交织的关系。至于Tether，他们持有约170亿美元的美国国债，是全球第17大美国国债持有人。如果美国政府试图禁止USDT，可能会导致国债市场的混乱抛售。然而，它仍然具有战略重要性，有助于推动"美元化"进程，特别是在阿根廷或土耳其这样的国家，并确实帮助美元成为主导货币。它在国际上仍然占据主导地位，特别是在"灰色市场"合规+加密交易领域。然而，$USDC基本上已成为美国财政部在私人领域的受监管延伸，主要在美国市场。USDC已经渗透了美国金融机构（visa、mastercard、stripe、bny等）设立的高度监管制度壁垒。Tether仍然是合规噩梦，在美国获得铸造功能或在Bitfinex等平台交易的权限仍然极其困难且不合法。USDC基本上已成为干净的USD，将与金融机构/银行更快地扩展规模，而USDT将在国际和监管较少的使用场景中大量存在（例如委内瑞拉人将本地货币转换为USDT，而不是RuneScape游戏金币，且无需通过大量KYC/AML流程）。但鉴于Tether的庞大规模，它将永远存在。
英文原文
Great question so here's my nuanced take about USDT, vs $CRCL USDC. Best example I can give is Onlyfans and Card Networks. It's not really allowed but Card networks still work with OF because of the amount of volume they process. Similarly, Tether is in a love-hate relationship with the US government. As for Tether, they're ~17th largest holder of US government debt in the world and are effectively holding $130B+ in treasuries. If the US government tries banning USDT, it might cause a chaotic sell-off in the treasury market. However, it still has strategic importance to spreading "dollarization", especially in countries like Argentina or Turkey and does help the USD become the dominant currency. It's still dominant Internationally, especially in "Grey Market" compliance + crypto trading,. However, $USDC has basically become the regulated private-sector extension of the US treasury, mainly in US markets. And USDC penetrated that highly regulated institutional wall with US financial instituions (visa, mastercard, stripe, bny, and so on). Tether still is a compliance headache and it's still extremely difficult and not legal to gain access to minting features/trading on Bitfinex etc in the US. USDC has basically become the clean USD and will scale up a lot faster with financial institutions/banking while USDT will be there a lot for international, less regulated use cases (eg. people converting local currencies in Venezuela to USDT instead of RuneScape GP without going through a ton of KYC/AML). But Tether will always be around given how massive it is.
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Circle作为美元数字化延伸，具国家安全和网络效应，建议极度做多。
1000%+ 的 Circle 论点：USDC 与私营部门美联储的崛起。 Circle $CRCL，连同 $NBIS 等标的，是我进入 2026 年高确信度的多头持仓，原因只有一个： Circle 已成为美国财政部的私营部门延伸。 在 180 亿美元市值下。 这是一个 10 倍以上的世代性机会，利用美元变得可编程且纯数字化的货币转变。 Circle 不是一家金融科技(Fintech)公司。它不应像传统公司那样被估值。作为数字印钞机，它是美国政府的国家安全利益。 以下是做多 Circle 的定性理由： 1. Circle 购买美国国债并作为美国财政部的私营部门延伸收取利息。 - 随着 USDC 市值扩张，Circle 购买更多短期美国国债。他们正成为世界上最大的单一美国债务持有者之一。 - 在 BRICS 和其他集团试图去美元化的时代，美国政府需要一种数字美元出口。Circle 将美元霸权瞬间传播给全球任何人，绕过当地银行限制。 - Circle 成为对其他外币（低利率或贬值）的有效“做空” -> 将本地货币转换为 Circle (USD) -> 买入美国债务。 对于 $CRCL：美国政府无法承受 Circle 失败。它拥有传统金融科技所没有的隐性“国家支持”战略护城河。 在 180 亿美元的估值下。 2. 网络效应： Circle + USDC 已经捕获了网络效应。 - 现在有数百种稳定币。Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe 以及更多即将推出的。但 Circle + USDC 已经捕获了美国市场的网络效应（USDT 仍在国际上广泛使用）。 现在每个人都用 Circle USDC 结算，无论是 Visa、Stripe、银行还是更多。网络效应是 Meta/Reddit 拥有护城河的原因。也是为什么比特币市值超过 1.5 万亿美元。以及为什么 USDC 不会被新稳定币取代。 USDC 已成为结算、发行和存储的标准，并吞噬了所有以前的结算方法，如 T+2 或更长的 Swift/ACH 轨道。 Circle 在采用和公认的结算基础设施方面确保了终极网络效应。 随着使用量的增长 -> Circle 印更多的钱。 3. 私营到公开的滞后： 很多人不知道，但我私下也帮助硅谷风险投资公司进行尽职调查，针对金融科技种子/A/B 轮投资。 从个人经验来看，我看到创纪录的资金涌入 USDC 相关公司：无论是稳定币新银行（如由 USDC 驱动的 Mecury 银行）还是带有 USDC 的结算基础设施。 当然还有许多关于私营部门收购的公开新闻，例如 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购 bridge，或银行开始研究 M&A 以创建 USDC 相关产品。 多年前这是 AI，我们看到了从 Anthropic 到 NVDA 在一两年后崛起的成果。 现在是稳定币 + USDC。 公开市场是滞后指标，它们尚未定价 USDC 成为公认结算轨道的必然性（比特币是数字黄金，USDC 是美元/结算）。 我们看到了 Circle 主要因浮动头寸动态而抛售，但我们可能会看到对冲基金试图积累对美元未来印钞机的控制权。 _ $CRCL 不仅仅是一只“加密股票”或“金融科技公司”，也不应像它们那样被估值（尤其是根据降息定价盈利能力）。 它基本上是美国美元的私营部门数字化。 自 GENIUS 法案以来，我们看到像 Circle 这样的公司申请特许状，并将 USDC 有效地连接到联邦储备系统。 现在我们终于看到了新的央行数字货币(CBDC) 的开始，但这次是通过 Circle 发行和私有化。 在 $84（180 亿美元市值）极度做多 Circle，作为地缘政治工具、标准结算货币以及美国财政部的私营部门延伸。
英文原文
The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve. Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason: Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. At a $18B MC. A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital. Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer. Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle: 1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. - As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world. - In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions. - Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt. For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have. At an $18B valuation. 2. Network effect: Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect. - There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally). Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins. USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH. Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure. With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money. 3. The Private-to-Public Lag: Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side. From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC. And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products. Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later. Now it's stablecoins + USDC. Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement). We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD. _ $CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts). It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar. Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system. And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle. Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.
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网络效应是护城河，USDC成美合规结算首选。
完全不是。这是网络效应在起作用，这是一道令人难以置信的护城河。这就是为什么对于Reddit（$RDDT），任何人都可以在一天内创建一个类似的平台，但因为大家都同意使用它，价值就由此产生。显然Circle（$CRCL）受到更多监管，但从我所见，$USDC也存在同样的网络效应，它是发行/结算的公认货币。我经营一家使用稳定币进行铸造/结算的金融机构。处理其他任何代币（如出于监管原因的Tether）或其他铸造的稳定币（因缺乏流动性/公认结算资产或交易对）都是一场噩梦。USDC将长期存在（主要在美国），而Tether似乎因不同原因成为国际首选。从我交谈过的风险投资朋友来看，大家似乎都在将资金注入由USDC驱动的金融科技，如稳定币银行，其效用将开始扩展。
英文原文
Not at all. This is the network effect in play, which is an incredible moat. That’s what makes Reddit, $RDDT where anyone can create a similar platform in a day, but because everyone agrees to use it, that’s where the value comes from. Obviously $CRCL is a tad more regulated, but from what I’ve seen, there’s that same network effect with $USDC where it’s the agreed upon currency to issue/settle with. I run a financial institution that does minting/settlement with stablecoins. It’s a nightmare to deal with any other coin (like Tether for regulatory reasons) or other minted stablecoins for lack of liquidity/agreed upon settlement asset or trading pairs. USDC is here to stay (mainly for United States), Tether seems to be the asset of choice for international for different reasons. Just from the venture capital friends I’ve talked to everyone seems to be funneling money into USDC-powered fintechs, like Stablecoin Banks, and we’ll start the utility start to expand.