个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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IREN产能规模远超NBIS等对手
@cmachdop $IREN 的吉瓦(GW)产能规模远大于 $NBIS 等其他竞争对手，即便他们目前没有任何订单。
英文原文
@cmachdop The amount of GW capacity $IREN has is a lot larger than other players like $NBIS even if they have no deals
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删除 $BULL 买入帖，因发现大规模解禁及内部人抛售风险。
抱歉，我最终删除了关于逢低买入 $BULL 的帖子。我轻信了关于机构抛售的新闻和其他帖子。经过进一步研究，发现这实际上是一次4.45亿股的解禁（share unlock），占流通盘（float）的30%。一位内部人士可能因预期解禁带来的进一步价格压力而提前抛售了300万股。虽然可能会反弹买入，但鉴于解禁股份数量之多以及 $BULL 的基本面，这是一个非常重大的事件。基于这些信息，你可以自行决定风险。
英文原文
Sorry ended up deleting my $BULL post about dip buying. I trusted the news + other posts about institutions selling. Did more research and it turns out to be a 445m share unlock, which was 30% of the float. One insider likely sold 3m anticipating the share unlock causing further price pressure. Could rebound buy but given how many shares are unlocked + $BULL fundamentals it’s a seriously material in event. You’re free to take your own risk given this info.
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澄清某股抛压源于SPAC解禁而非随机出售
@fossinvest 是的，我进一步研究了，看起来还有另一批SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）解禁股份。原以为是随机的股份出售，现在更有道理了。
英文原文
@fossinvest Yeah looked into it more looked like there’s another SPAC unlock for shares. Thought it was a random share sale, makes more sense
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分享BULL的备兑看涨期权策略及长期类比HOOD的潜力。
@resilliencep 我通常将其波段操作在 14 美元左右。利用这一点，你可以卖出 13 美元的备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)，以 11.9 美元的成本均价买入，如果 $BULL 触及该行权价，收益约为 15%。或者干脆等待，它未来可能会像迷你版 $HOOD 一样表现。
英文原文
@resilliencep I usually swing it $14-ish. With this you can do $11.9 sell covered calls $13, cost average $11.5 and make like 15% if it hits that strike for $BULL. Or just wait, might end up like a mini $HOOD one day.
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该股正进行税务收割，预计明年回升
@ThatIsIt11 它目前正在进行税务收割(Tax Harvesting)，预计明年会回升
英文原文
@ThatIsIt11 It’s being tax harvested right now, will likely rise next year
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澄清LUNR属太空探索，RKLB属可重复使用火箭。
@Khagani_gahrh0 @SebastianS79509 不，$LUNR 是太空探索，$RKLB 是可重复使用火箭。
英文原文
@Khagani_gahrh0 @SebastianS79509 No $LUNR is space exploration, $RKLB is reusable rockets
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作者分享RKLB早期投资经历，并表示愿为FLY承担风险。
@SebastianS79509 我的意思是，当所有人都认为 Rocket Lab ($RKLB) 无法盈利时，我在 14 美元左右就买入了。如果他们正在从事对国家安全的火箭发射至关重要的工作，我愿意承担 $FLY 的风险。
英文原文
@SebastianS79509 I mean I bought $RKLB at $14 or so when everyone thought they were unprofitable. If they’re working on rocket launches critical to national security, I’ll take the risk with $FLY.
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分享NBIS、CIFR、IREN及WYFI等AI算力相关个股观点。
@DeepValueBagger @__visionxry__ 有道理，我最看好的前三只是 $NBIS、$CIFR（在“七大科技巨头”+融资方面类似于轻量版 Nebius），以及 $IREN（仅因其 GW 级算力容量及未来与“七大科技巨头”的交易）。 我只是想补充一些沿着 Neocloud 路线的标的，比如 $WYFI。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @__visionxry__ Makes sense, top three favorites for me were $NBIS, $CIFR being Nebius-lite in terms of Mag7 + funding, and then $IREN just for the GW capacity + future mag7 deals. I just thought I'd add some more down the Neocloud line like $WYFI.
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分析WYFI低成本改造优势及小市值重估潜力
确实。玩笑归玩笑（抱歉吓到 @DeepValueBagger），$WYFI 的优势可能在于其改造设施的成本比竞争对手新建（greenfield）数据中心低40%，且他们不依赖租赁。与矿企相比，它是纯高算力(HPC)标的。劣势是他们不像 $NBIS 那样自建编排(orchestration)堆栈，也不像 $IREN 那样扩张迅速。但他们拥有基础设施而非租赁。这是垂直整合的硬件与物理层 HPC 基础设施。我基于所有 Neocloud 都有增长空间，且考虑到 $13 亿的小市值，认为其有更大的重估空间。Clear Street 分析师给出的 $51 目标价可能在数字测算上更专业，建议参考他们的观点。
英文原文
True. Jokes aside (sorry to scare @DeepValueBagger) $WYFI's edge is probably converting facilities for 40% lower cost than greenfield (built from scratch) data centers that others need to build, and they're not lease heavy. It's also pure play HPC compared to miners. Downside is they don't build their own orchestration stack like $NBIS or scale as fast as $IREN. But they own the infrastructure instead of leasing. Vertically integrated HPC infrastructure for hardware and psychical only. I'm just going off the assumption there's room to grow across all Neoclouds and there's more room for re-rating considering the small $1.3B market cap size. The analysts at Clear Street that gave a $51 PT probably do a better job with number crunching so I'd just refer to them.
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建议在Neoclouds回调时买入，并分享了NBIS和WYFI的建仓点位。
@NoahIAvest 是的，面对这类噪音，我会直接在Neoclouds（新云）回调时买入。 $NBIS 在下跌5%时是极佳的买入点。我最终在那次4%的回调中建立了 $WYFI 的头寸。
英文原文
@NoahIAvest Yeah I would just buy the dips on Neoclouds from noise like this. $NBIS was an amazing buy on the 5% drop. Finally started positions in $WYFI on that 4% drop.
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建议买入$WYFI并持有底层资产，指出公司常低于净资产价值。
@matthew_sigel 是的，$WYFI 是很好的买入标的。人们应该忽略 $BTBT 并持有底层资产。公司可能因多种原因低于净资产价值(NAV)，看看 Grayscale 及其加密货币持仓多年来的表现就知道了。
英文原文
@matthew_sigel Yeah $WYFI is a great buy. People should just ignore $BTBT and hold the underlying asset. Companies can be below NAV for many reasons, just look at Grayscale and its crypto holdings for many years
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$NBIS 因客户多元及软件优势成赢家
@babyfolio $NBIS 是此类新闻的明确赢家，因为其多元化的客户群将抵消任何建设/收入滞后。并且可能拥有最佳的软件编排堆栈，以最大化 GPU 利用率。
英文原文
@babyfolio $NBIS is the clear winner from news like this since they have a diversified customer base which would offset any buildout/revenue lag. And probably the best software orchestration stack to maximize GPU utilization
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借回调买入NBIS和WYFI，认为机构正从散户手中积累AI算力基建股。
@babyfolio 是的，我正在利用这次机会买入 $NBIS (-5.37%) 并建立 $WYFI (-3%) 的头寸。AI 算力基础设施中，针对“七巨头”(Mag7) 的机构持股比例较低，因此他们可能利用这些机会从散户手中积累筹码。
英文原文
@babyfolio Yeah I'm using this opportunity to buy $NBIS (-5.37%) and create positions in $WYFI (-3%) now. Institutional ownership is low on the infra of mag7 for AI compute so they probably use these opportunities to accumulate from retail.
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坚持独立思考，视TrumpRX为NBIS等公司护城河的验证。
@foogleman1234 忽略噪音并坚持独立思考是很好的。例如，我喜欢 $HIMS，但如果我认为某件事（如 TrumpRX）确实是净负面因素，我会指出它是逆风。在这里，我只将其视为对 $NBIS 和其他公司的利好，以及对其护城河的验证。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 It's good to ignore the noise and do your own thinking. For example, I liked $HIMS but I would call out that something is a headwind (eg. TrumpRX) if I thought it actually was a net negative. Here I just see it as a positive for $NBIS and others and a validation of moat.
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AWS增速虽不及竞品，但潜在合作预期支撑股价，跌幅不合理。
@AdityaInvests90 @pepemoonboy 是的，25% 依然不错，只是不如 Oracle 的百分之几百或 GCP 的 38% 那么亮眼。 只需与 OpenAI 和 AWS 达成一次握手，叙事逻辑就会改变。 但这仍然不足以解释 $AMZN 年初至今下跌 0.42% 的表现。
英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 @pepemoonboy Yeah 25% is still good, just not as good as Oracles 100s of percent or GCP 38%. Just takes a handshake with OpenAi and AWS for the narrative to change. Still doesn’t warrant $AMZN -.42% YTD.
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看好亚马逊因降本增效及AWS订单，认为Meta资本支出效率低。
@AdityaInvests90 哎呀，我也上了 $AMZN 的炒作列车，我会和 @pepemoonboy 来点竞争。 我只是觉得 Meta 这个季度在 AI 上烧了太多资本支出(capex)，却没什么像样的成果。 亚马逊有太多利好，比如机器人降低运营支出(opex)以及 AWS 的积压订单(backlog)。
英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 Oof I’m on the $AMZN hype train, I’ll have a little competition with @pepemoonboy. I just felt like Meta blew too much capex on AI this quarter with nothing much to show. Amazon has too much going for it like robotics cutting opex and AWS backlog.
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询问布莱恩·约翰逊是否背书HIMS股票
@bryan_johnson 这是对 $HIMS 股票的背书吗？
英文原文
@bryan_johnson Is this an endorsement for $HIMS stock?
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看好盘后回调的SEI和FLNC，信任他人对EOSE的研究。
@DigestingX $SEI 盘后下跌 6.7% 的跌幅可能是最好的。我也看好 $FLNC。 $EOSE 我了解不多，我只是信任他人的深度研究(DD)。
英文原文
@DigestingX $SEI is probably the best on the 6.7% drop after hours. I like $FLNC too. $EOSE idk much about yet, I'm just trusting the DD of others.
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新云厂商当前适合卖出看跌期权。
@a_do120 任何新云厂商目前都是理想的卖出看跌期权标的。
英文原文
@a_do120 Any neocloud is ideal for put selling right now
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修正论点：$VIRT在波动中盈利且被低估，具对冲价值。
你说得对，两者并非1:1相关，我本应更清晰地指出其中的细微差别。所以正确的表述是：$VIRT 在波动率持续扩大的时期（当波动率指数(VIX)走高时)非常盈利，且市场最终会对此进行定价。 因此，在波动性下跌行情中，$VIRT 表现更佳，目前被低估，并起到对冲作用，这正是我的投资论点。 我确信市场错了，即使 VIX 不高，从 Robinhood 的数据来看，散户交易活动依然强劲。（$VIRT 处理约 25% 的散户资金流），其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)真的很低。
英文原文
You’re right it’s not 1:1 correlated, I should have done better at pointing out the nuance. So the correct way phrase is $VIRT is very profitable in extended periods of volatility (when VIX is elevated) and it gets priced in the eventually. So in a volatile downturn, $VIRT performs better, is currently undervalued, and serves as a hedge, which was my thesis. I’m convinced market is wrong even if VIX isn’t high, retail trading activity is strong if you look at Robinhood’s data. ($VIRT handles ~25% of retail flows), forward p/e is really low.
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强烈建议买入NBIS，因其市值下上行潜力巨大且收入预期惊人。
@_visionarius 两者都是强力买入标的，尤其是 $NBIS，考虑到其当前市值下非对称的上行潜力。他们的前瞻性收入数据简直令人难以置信地惊人。
英文原文
@_visionarius Both are strong buys, $NBIS especially given their asymmetrical upside at this marketcap. Their forward revenue is hilariously mind blowing.
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分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
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分析SPRB估值与稀释风险，虽短期或涨至$500，但不建议长期持有。
TLDR：如果没有稀释，仅因TA-ERT催化剂，股价可能暂时涨至$500。但这在稀释日如同玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。 我花更多时间研究了细节： $SPRB 的合理市值约为1.5亿-2亿美元（目前8500万）。原帖作者声称目标价$500，若公司不稀释则合理。 然而： 截至2025年6月30日，SPRB现金等价物仅1640万美元，鉴于现金余额低，通过增发新股进行稀释似乎不可避免。股价上涨源于低流通盘+利好消息（无16%这样的空头头寸，故非空头挤压）。 增发新股+稀释后（市值1.5亿-2亿美元可能使股价回归~$50-75），若计入稀释，我不认为能看到$500的目标价。 我们可能会因流通盘有限看到另一波100%+的上涨冲向$500（就像$BULL因低流通盘涨至600亿市值那样），但由于随机日期的稀释如同俄罗斯轮盘赌，我不建议长期持有。 无论如何，我喜欢玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。欢迎任何反驳观点。
英文原文
TLDR: Might go up to $500 temporary strike if there's no dilution just because of TA-ERT catalyst. But it's playing Russian Roulette on dilution days. So had some more time to look into things: Fair value $SPRB market cap is = ~$150–200m. ($85M now). In OP's post they claimed $500 PT, which is fair if company doesn't dilute. However: SPRB has $16.4M in cash equivalents, June 30, 2025, dilution with new shares seems inevitable just because of low cahs balance. Price rise was due to low float + good news (there's no short interest like .16% so not a short squeeze) After issuing new shares + dilution (Market cap at $150m-$200m might normalize share price to ~$50-75), don't really see the $500 figure if dilution is included. We might see another 100%+ runup just because of limited float toward that $500 mark (like how $BULL ran to a $60B MC off low float), but I would be against holding it long term because of russian roulette dilution on a random day. Either way, I like playing Russian Roulette. Welcome any counterpoints
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作者因SMCI入标普500后遭SEC调查而心有余悸。
@rocket5010 我对超微电脑($SMCI)有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，因为它们在进入标普500指数后遭到了美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的调查。
英文原文
@rocket5010 I have PTSD from $SMCI when they got into the S&P 500 then had a SEC investigation.
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RKLB虽为高信念持仓，但因高估决定停止交易并持有。
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB 是我过去5年中信念最强的股票，但说实话，它确实被严重高估了。我刚刚学会不再交易它，而是持有。
英文原文
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB is my highest conviction stock over 5 years but it's really overvalued tbh. I just learned to not trade this anymore and hold.
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分析SPRB酶替代疗法获批后的市值潜力，自曝买入并求教。
在 @MartinShkreli 发帖后，我查看了 $SPRB，它涉及 TA-ERT（酶替代疗法），属于突破性疗法。 粗略估算，如果 SPRB 的 TA-ERT 获批并长期占据 10-15% 的市场份额（对应 1.8 亿-2.7 亿美元 ARR），基于 14 亿美元的美国市场... 通过 2-3 倍营收计算，当前合理的公允价值可能在 2.8 亿-6.3 亿美元市值之间。 当然，从临床试验失败、商业化到稀释风险都很大，但 8500 万美元的市值看起来很有潜力？ （披露：我买了 5 万美元，纯粹作为高风险博弈） 显然我不是生物技术专家，这超出了我的专业领域，所以我想看看是否有其他领域专家能提供反馈或指出红旗警示。
英文原文
I was looking at $SPRB after @MartinShkreli posted about it and it’s TA-ERT, breakthrough enzyme therapy replacement. Just from a quick search if SPRB’s TA-ERT is approved and they capture 10-15% market share longer term ($180–$270M ARR) of $1.4B US market... Realistic fair value today could be ~$280m-630m MC from 2-3x rev calculations. Obviously there’s a lot of risk from clinical failures, commercialization, to dilution but a $85M market cap looks promising? (disclosure I bought $50k worth just as a high risk gamble) Obviously I’m not an expert in biotech and this is outside my domain, which is why I wanted to see if anyone else with any domain knowledge had feedback or red flags.
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Snap转向盈利举措被视为基本面催化剂。
@rioferdy838 从基本面来看，$SNAP 此前毫无亮点，因为他们一直专注于增强现实(AR)和眼镜。这类举措能让他们真正实现盈利，因此这一转变确实是一个催化剂。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 Fundamentally $SNAP had nothing going for it earlier because they kept focusing on AR and glasses. Stuff like that makes them actually profitable like this move is an actual catalyst.
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建议优先选其他股，但认为Snapchat估值应上调至10美元以上。
@cmachdop 谢谢，我想借此开个玩笑，因为这是 $SNAP 从第一天起就该做的更新。我仍然建议优先选择其他股票而非 Snapchat，但在我看来，它确实值得重新评级至 10 美元以上。
英文原文
@cmachdop Thanks, thought I'd have some fun with this since it's an update $SNAP needed to do from day 1. Would still recommend other stocks over Snapchat still but it does deserve a re-rating to $10+ imo
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Snap内存变现尚需一年，市场或待确认后再定价。
@fossinvest 我完全支持鼓励更多新贡献者分享非付费墙的深度研究(DD)。感谢发帖。 唯一的缺点是 Snap 的内存货币化(内存变现)实质性落地还需一年时间。市场通常具有前瞻性，但可能会等待更多确认信号，才会将其完全计入定价。
英文原文
@fossinvest I'm all for encouraging more non-paywalled DD from newer contributors when I can. Thanks for posting. Only downside is Snap's memory monetization is 1 year out materially. Markets are usually forward looking, but may wait for more confirmation before fully pricing it in
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对比各平台付费率，认为Snap 2%转化率合理且用户有付费意愿。
@whyp3rk 我对 $SNAP 使用了 2% 作为合理的估算值。 Dropbox 约 2.6% 是付费用户，Notion 为 4%，Google 约为 10-15%，iCloud 曾达到 60%。 我个人大概会愿意付费让 Snap 不要删除我的高中回忆 lol。每次只能迁移 100 张太烦人了。
英文原文
@whyp3rk I used 2% as a fair estimate for $SNAP. Dropbox ~2.6% are paid users, Notion 4%, Google 10-15%-ish, ICloud was 60%. I'd probably personally pay for Snap to not delete my high school memories lol. It's too annoying to migrate out 100 at a time.