个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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反驳NBIS利润率误解，指出软件优势才是高毛利关键。
那是不对的，$NBIS 的利润率包含了托管费(colocation fees)，且成本已反映在29%的营收成本(cost of revenue)中。 $IREN 也拥有站点，但这并未使其相比 $NBIS 获得显著的利润率优势。你没读到的是，软件（编排、利用率）以及无收入分成（Fluidstack、Poolside）才是推动更高利润率的关键。 声称聪明人不再权衡容量与利润率之间的取舍，是我见过最愚蠢的观点，恭喜。
英文原文
That’s not true, $NBIS margins include colo fees and the costs are reflected in the 29% cost of revenue. $IREN owns the sites too, but it doesn’t give much of a margin advantage over $NBIS. Thing you didn’t read was software (orchestration, utilization) and no revenue margin cut (fluidstack, poolside), drives higher margins. Saying intelligent people stopped comparing tradeoffs between capacity and margins is the dumbest take I’ve seen so far, congrats.
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澄清$IREN因依赖中间件导致利润率受限，非真正全栈。
并非如此，即使在云服务商(CSP)模式下，他们仍使用Poolside等中间件（CIFR和WULF使用Fluidstack）。我想你可能误解了我的意思。 $IREN的利润率结构将受到限制，因为中间件会侵蚀来自编排、调度、客户分配等环节的利润。 虽然这比托管型主机(MW Hosting)更好，但它不像Nebius那样是真正的全栈架构，因此利润率会有上限。
英文原文
Not really, even under csp, they still use middleware like poolside (CIFR WULF use fluidstack). Think you’re misundestanding what I’m trying to say Margin profile will be limited with $IREN because middleware cuts into margins from orchestration, scheduling, customer allocation, etc. While it’s better than mw hosting, is not a true full stack like nebius and margins will cap out
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澄清Nebius核心优势在于软件栈提升运营效率与利润率。
@JarronJackson4 @DeepValueBagger 我之前回复过 @jiahanjimliu，但这并非关于他们如何通过编排(Orchestration)或全栈(Full Stack)（例如超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)）来获取更多客户，你误解了其中的经济学逻辑。关键在于 Nebius 的软件栈如何推动更高效的运营支出(OPEX)并提升利润率。
英文原文
@JarronJackson4 @DeepValueBagger I replied this to @jiahanjimliu earlier but it’s not about capturing more customers with how they do orchestration or full stack (eg. hyper scalers) and you’re misunderstanding the economics It’s about how Nebius’s software stack drives more efficient OPEX and increases margins.
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看好Neoclouds板块，认为利润率比容量更重要，首选NBIS。
谢谢，只是想补充一下，我对从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的整个 Neoclouds 板块依然看好。短期内，由于围绕算力容量(capacity)的叙事，可能会有更高的上行空间，但我预计在执行和财报季到来时，市场会更关注利润率(margins)。就纯粹的不对称上行潜力而言，$NBIS 是显而易见的赢家，因为其运营侧拥有毛利率护城河（如果不是因为利息债务，$CRWV 也会名列前茅）。我在帖子中添加了一些定量数据，展示为何利润率 > 容量和/或中间件(middleware)。
英文原文
Thanks, just wanted to add I'm still bullish on Neoclouds across the board from $IREN to $CIFR. Short term there might be higher upside due to narratives around capacity but I'd expect markets to care about margins more when it comes time to execution + earning reports. In terms of raw asymmetrical upside, $NBIS is the obvious winner due to gross margin moat on their operational side ( $CRWV would have been up there if it weren't for interest debt). And I added some quantitative data in the post showing why margins > capacity and/or middleware.
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估值逻辑转向利润率，$NBIS 运营优势显著且上行空间大
我想指出一个新的估值逻辑正在转变：从对电力容量的炒作转向利润率，这源于 $NBIS 最近的白皮书、$ORCL 的利润率泄露以及其他信息。人们只是假设吉瓦(GW)等于矿工(miners)的利润，但在未来的盈利能力和执行力方面，当矿工发现利润率低于预期时，我认为针对矿工的投机情绪会大幅消退。我只是想做一个核心运营层面的对比，在这方面 $NBIS 显然脱颖而出。此外，正如你提到的，他们还拥有很好的子公司+超大规模公司(hyperscaling companies)投资组合，我未将其纳入计算，但这将带来更高的上行空间。
英文原文
Just wanted to point out a new valuation thesis shifting from power capacity hype to margins due to new information from $NBIS recent whitepaper, $ORCL margin leak, and others. People just assume GW = profit with miners, but in terms of profitability and execution in the future, I'd expect the speculation to die down hard with miners when they find out margins are lower than expected. I just wanted to do the core operational side comparison, which $NBIS clearly stands out on top. On top of that, as you mentioned, they also have a great portfolio of subsidaries + hyperscaling companies too that I didn't add in that would lead to a higher upside.
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作者认为NBIS全栈软件优势带来高毛利，优于IREN等矿企，故重仓NBIS。
为了解决关于新云（Neocloud）的争论： $NBIS > $IREN 及其他。 基于 $ORCL 的报告、NBIS 白皮书、$CRWV 的收购案以及其他因素， 我决定将数百万资金整合进 Nebius，并清仓像 $CIFR 这样的矿企。 📏 毛利率 > 吉瓦（GW）产能 以下是数学逻辑及原因： 此前，由远期收入支撑的新云板块（例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的 190 亿美元交易）经历了巨大的投机性上涨。 然而，由于原始 GW 产能（如 $IREN）和廉价能源，加密货币矿企近期上涨了 500%+。 然而，人们忽略的是，产能虽能带来更高的收入，但如果不可盈利（例如 $ORCL 14% 的毛利率），这些收入毫无意义。 随着更多关于 $ORCL 建设失败、$NBIS 白皮书等的信息公布，我们得知如果经济模型无法转化，电力和产能意义不大。 而 $NBIS 拥有一切优势。 1. 毛利率差距：全栈 vs 中间件 像 $IREN 和 $CIFR 这样的矿企必须依赖编排合作伙伴（Fluidstack、Poolside 等）来变现其 GPU。这意味着要放弃 20-30% 的收入（~来自深度研究的私人估算），并承担 GPU 折旧、电力和运维成本。结果是？ 在 $3-4/小时 的 GPU 定价和 ~80% 利用率下，IREN/CIFR 的毛利率 = ~44-52% 在 $5-6/小时 和 90% 利用率下，毛利率可能达到 ~55-60%，但这已是天花板。 与此同时，Nebius 通过拥有编排层并分摊 4 年成本，目前获得 70-75% 的毛利率（上一季度为 71.2%，可能为 60-70%，近期白皮书声称更高的 GPU 利用率可能使其更高）。 随着规模和利用率的提高，这一差距会复利扩大。 矿企每赚一美元都要分出一部分，而 Nebius 的毛利率随时间增加。 2. 软件是护城河，Oracle 证明了这一点 即使 $ORCL 这样市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商，也无法盈利地构建 GPU 编排，其 AI 租赁平台报告约 14% 的毛利率，并在此过程中亏损约 1 亿美元。 如果 Oracle 都无法执行，指望市值 1 亿美元的小型矿企如 $SLNH 从头构建超大规模云级别的编排系统只是痴人说梦。 像 Fluidstack 这样的平台是必要的桥梁，但代价高昂：毛利率压缩、收入流失和平台依赖。 Nebius？它已经完成了最难的部分。其内部编排软件、GPU 利用率，没有中间商赚差价。 3. 电力 vs 毛利率计算 单张 H100 功耗约 0.7-0.84 kW。即使在 $0.10/kWh 的电价下，每张 GPU 每小时的电费仅为 $0.07-0.08。当 GPU 以 $4-6/小时 出租时，这仅占收入的 1-2%。 真正影响大局的是什么？利用率： 50% -> 85% 的正常运行时间 = 每张 GPU 收入增加 70% 这是数百个基点的毛利率波动，远超与矿企相比的“廉价电力”优势。 软件利用率/编排是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高 30-70 倍。而且 $NBIS 也不缺廉价电力 lol。 4. 矿企中的 CRWV 例外 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为矿企转型的案例，但 Coreweave 实际上花了数年时间，并进行了数十亿美元的软件收购。 即使现在，报道显示其利用率仍落后于 Nebius。如果矿企认为他们能复制 CRWV，祝他们好运。 我预计 $NBIS 在明年的财报中，当执行与投机面临检验时，将大幅跑赢。 🧩 非对称性 Nebius 毛利率：70-75%（全栈，4 年折旧） IREN/CIFR 现实毛利率：40-60%（中间件，2-3 年折旧） 毛利率差额：15-30 个百分点 执行风险：Nebius = 0（已在执行）；IREN/CIFR = 高 Nebius 不是电力博弈。它是软件毛利率博弈，带有硬件上行空间。对于 $IREN 等，你是在猜测它能否像 $CRWV 那样成功。 人们不断说“软件不是护城河，看看 $CRWV 对 $IREN 未来 HPC 毛利率的影响”，但如果 $ORCL 这样最大的超大规模云服务商之一都卡在 14% 的毛利率。那么我们怎么指望这些小加密货币矿企能搞定 Coreweave。 就非对称性更新而言，$NBIS 是明确的赢家。就原始潜在上行空间而言，如果 $IREN 能像变魔术一样搞定 $CRWV 并在此方面击败 $ORCL，那我确实会认输。 软件全栈是一个巨大的护城河，人们严重低估了它。对于 $NBIS，他们可以只是即插即用，随着时间推移扩大规模，拥有行业内最高的毛利率。 $NBIS 就是真正的非对称回报的样子。
英文原文
To settle the Neocloud debate: $NBIS > $IREN + others. Based on the $ORCL report, NBIS whitepaper, $CRWV acquisitions, and other factors, I decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR. 📏 Gross Margins > GW capacity Here's the math + why: We've had a huge speculative run across the board on Neoclouds backed by forward revenue (eg. 19B $MSFT deal with $NBIS). However, crypto miners have recently gone up 500%+ due to raw GW capacity like $IREN and cheap energy. However, what people miss out on is capacity leads to much higher revenue but that revenue means nothing if it's not profitable (eg. $ORCL 14% gross margins). Now that more information has come out regarding $ORCL's buildout failure, $NBIS's whitepaper, and others, we know power and capacity mean little if the economics don’t translate. And $NBIS has everything. 1. The Margin Gap: Full Stack vs. Middleware Miners like $IREN and $CIFR must rely on orchestration partners (Fluidstack, Poolside, etc.) to monetize their GPUs. That means giving up 20–30% of revenue (~private estimates from deep research), plus absorbing GPU depreciation, power, and O&M. The result? At $3–4/hr GPU pricing and ~80% utilization, IREN/CIFR margin = ~44–52% At $5–6/hr and 90% utilization, margin could reach ~55–60%, but that’s the ceiling Meanwhile, Nebius earns 70–75% today by owning the orchestration layer and amortizing over 4 years (71.2% from previous Q, likely 60-70%, possibly higher from recent whitepaper claiming higher GPU utilizations). This gap compounds as scale and utilization rise. Miners give away a piece of every dollar they earn while Nebius INCREASES gross margins over time. 2. Software Is the Moat and Oracle Proved It Even $ORCL, an $800B hyperscaler, failed at building GPU orchestration profitably, reporting ~14% gross margins on their AI rental platform and losing ~$100M in the process. If Oracle can’t execute, expecting $100M marketcap small miners like $SLNH to build hyperscaler-grade orchestration from scratch is wishful thinking. Platforms like Fluidstack are essential bridges, but they come at a cost: margin compression, revenue leakage, and platform dependency. Nebius? It already did the hard part. Its in-house orchestration software, GPU utilization, with no middlemen taking a cut. 3. Power vs. Margin Calculations A single H100 uses ~0.7–0.84 kW. Even at $0.10/kWh, power is just $0.07–0.08 per GPU-hour. When GPUs rent at $4–6/hr, that’s 1–2% of revenue. What actually moves the needle? Utilization: 50% -> 85% uptime = +70% revenue per GPU That’s a multi-hundred bps margin swing, far outweighing any "cheap power" comparison with miners. Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. And it's not like $NBIS doesn't have cheap power either lol. 4. The CRWV Exception to Miners Everyone points to $CRWV as miners pivot but Coreweave literally spent YEARS to do this, along with billions in software acquisitions. And even now, reports suggest their utilization trails Nebius. If miners think they’ll replicate CRWV, good luck. I'd expect in NBIS to strong outperform in next year's earnings reports when it comes time for execution vs. speculation. 🧩 The Asymmetry Nebius GM: 70–75% (full-stack, 4yr depreciation) IREN/CIFR realistic GM: 40–60% (middleware, 2–3yr depreciation) Gross margin delta: 15–30 points Execution risk: Nebius = 0 (already doing it); IREN/CIFR = high Nebius isn’t a power play. It’s a software margins play, with hardware upside. With $IREN and others, you're guessing if it can pull off a $CRWV. People keep saying "software it not a moat, and look at $CRWV for $IREN future HPC margins", but if $ORCL one of the largest hyperscalers is stuck at 14% gross margins. Then how do we expect these small crypto miners to pull off a Coreweave. In terms of ASYMMETRICAL UPDATE, $NBIS is the clear favorite out of anything. In terms of raw potential upside if $IREN manages to pull a $CRWV out a hat and beats out $ORCL in this, sure I'd concede. Software full stack is a HUGE moat that people vastly, vastly underestimate. With $NBIS, they can just let it plug and play scale up over time with the highest gross margins in industry. $NBIS is what true asymmetric return looks like.
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对比NBIS与IREN，认为前者如传奇纲手，后者如小樱般最终显得无用。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 就像传说中的纲手(DD Tsunade)四处行走并最终成为火影。$IREN 则像某些主角如小樱(Sakura)，起初人们羡慕其力量，但随着时间推移，在与拥有全套配置的人相比时，人们终将意识到这种力量是无用的。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $NBIS is like DD Tsunade walking around becoming hokage like a legend. $IREN is some main character like Sakura with power that people admire at first but will come to realize is useless as time goes on when you compare it to someone with the full package.
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卖出HPC挖矿股转投NBIS，因后者利润率更高。
不，直到本周我都几乎持有了所有新云(Neocloud)股票。但在周五卖出了高性能计算(HPC)挖矿概念股，因为整合了更多新信息，例如 $ORCL 的建设失败、$NBIS 两天前发布的新白皮书、$CRWV 最近的收购案，以及对利润率计算的更多洞察。 但我会把资金转入 $NBIS。 人们对 HPC 挖矿商转型过于乐观，而 $ORCL 该板块利润率仅为 14%，且大家只盯着 Coreweave 看。 算力有助于扩大营收规模，但如果无法实现像 Nebius 那样的高利润率，这就没那么重要了。
英文原文
No, I held almost every Neocloud up until this week. But ended up selling HPC miners Friday after consolidating more information that came out eg. $ORCL buildout failing, $NBIS new whitepaper 2 days ago, $CRWV recent acquisitions, more insights into margin calculations. But I'll put that into $NBIS. People are too bullish on HPC miner pivots when $ORCL had 14% for that segment and they just look at Coreweave. Capacity helps scale revenue, but it wouldn't matter as much if they can't achieve high margins that Nebius will produce
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认为NBIS软件护城河深，非对称收益优于IREN等转型矿工。
我不同意，软件编排（Software Orchestration）可能是最大的护城河之一，这就是为什么在我看来，$NBIS 的非对称上行潜力明显优于 $IREN。但各有所好！ 我同意 $IREN 因部署的吉瓦（GW）规模略大，潜在上行空间稍高，但在利润率方面的执行风险要大得多。 关于 $IREN 未来的财报，我认为市场将痛苦地发现，Nebius 目前的编排能力和客户多样性构成了巨大的护城河。 $ORCL 作为最大的算力公司之一，据 TI 报道，其最近的建设亏损超过 1 亿美元。这主要归因于软件、GPU 编排和客户基础。内部文件显示其毛利率约为 14%（而 $NBIS 上季度为 71.2%）。 如果最大的超大规模云服务商都做不好，而人们仍指向 $CRWV 支持比特币矿工转型（尽管他们花费数十亿用于软件收购且转型耗时数年），那么你可能低估了这个巨大的护城河。 此外，软件利用率/编排的重要性比廉价电力高约 30-70 倍（我在另一条评论中算过账）。 部署的兆瓦/吉瓦规模确实给矿工带来更高的上行空间，但当 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称回报和产能时，去猜测这些比特币矿工能否转向高利润率是没有意义的，这是我的观点。
英文原文
I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own! I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins. When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat. $ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter). If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating. Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment). Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.
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NBIS凭借低运营成本和高毛利率建立护城河，资金将从Oracle等竞争对手回流。
我曾讨论过 $NBIS 在大幅降低运营支出(opex)和提升利润率方面的内部护城河。这转化为定价权，因为他们可以收取更低的价格+获得更高利润+更高的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)可用于收购和投资（例如 Clickhouse）。Oracle 正在持续进行建设，据 TI 称这导致他们损失了 1 亿多美元。随着执行层面在 6 个月后的表现与当前的投机形成对比，我们可能会看到转向(miners pivoting)的矿工（CRWV 花了数年时间构建其技术栈+数十亿美元用于收购）毛利率恶化，资金将回流至 Nebius。$NBIS -> 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的毛利率。
英文原文
I was talking about $NBIS internal moat on reducing opex a ton + increased margins. This translates to pricing power since they can charge less + make more + higher EBITDA they can use for acquisitions + investments (eg. clickhouse) Oracle is ongoing with their buildout and it turned out to lose them $100m+ as per TI. We'll likely see worse gross margins on miners pivoting (CRWV spent years on building out their stack + billions on acquisition) and money flow back into Nebius when it comes to execution in 6 months time vs. speculation currently. $NBIS -> highest gross margins out of any Neocloud.
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NBIS凭借利润率与全栈软件护城河，在Neocloud竞争中胜出。
公平地说，比特币矿工确实有很多炒作。我猜测所有的 Neocloud 都会一起上涨。 但最终能脱颖而出的是在 ER（执行率/执行能力）期间的表现。$NBIS 凭借利润率和高护城河最终位居榜首。 全栈+软件编排是一个被误解的护城河。连 $ORCL 都没能做好，他们在建设上损失了1亿美元。
英文原文
Fair, there's a lot of hype around Bitcoin miners. My guess is every Neocloud will go up together anyway. But what ends up on top is execution during ER. $NBIS ends up on top due to margins and defensibility. Full stack + software orchestration is a misunderstood moat. Even $ORCL couldn't get it right and they lost $100m on buildout.
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看好NBIS下跌后的世代性机会，认为其将跑赢IREN。
@YNWA_AB 是的，我通常很少发单一个股的内容，但我觉得 $NBIS 现在是一个世代性的机会，尤其是在下跌30%之后。我看到 $IREN 和其他公司的上涨潜力，但认为 Nebius 将大幅跑赢。
英文原文
@YNWA_AB Yeah I normally don't do much single-stock posts, but just feel like $NBIS is a generational opportunity right now, especially on the 30% drop. I see the upside for $IREN and others, but feel like Nebius will strong outperform.
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看好NBIS非对称上行潜力，决定集中持仓。
@genZinvest0r 确实，$NBIS 的投资者就是更优越。 说笑归说笑，这并非赢家通吃的局面，例如云计算（Azure、AWS、GCP 等）。 但，我一直对 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力更看好，并认为我应该言行一致，将资金集中配置于此。
英文原文
@genZinvest0r True, $NBIS investors are just superior. Jokes aside it's not winner takes all eg. cloud (Azure, AWS, GCP, etc). But, I've always been more bullish on $NBIS in terms of asymmetrical upside and thought I should just put my money where my mouth is + focus concentration on it.
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清仓其他Neocloud重仓$NBIS，认为其全栈优势及无债结构使其优于同行。
Neocloud持仓更新，10月24日周五。 发这条推文是为了向$IREN和其他Neocloud（新云）持有者传达一个信息： 👑 $NBIS更胜一筹。 我已清仓其他Neocloud股票：$CIFR获利250%+，$IREN、$BITF、$WYFI获利50-100%+，$WULF亏损5-10%。 目前我在$NBIS股票/LEAPS（长期期权）上的敞口超过200万美元，并持有少量$WLAC仓位。如果$NBIS股价维持在115美元，下周我会继续加仓Nebius。 我通常不发布卖出操作，但最近有很多烦人的Neocloud帖子声称他们的才是最好的。所以我发这条是为了传达$NBIS在不对称上行潜力方面明显更优，且已锁定Mag7（科技七巨头）订单。因此，分散投资其他Neocloud毫无意义。 NBIS通过全栈/GPU利用率及多元化用户，可能拥有最高的利润率护城河。其子公司+投资组合公司（AI数据库、机器人/配送等）正随其运营业务同步扩张。此外，没有侵蚀利润率的不良利息债务。 只需等待一年获得另一个超大规模云厂商合同，就有轻松获得300%收益和1000亿美元+市值的明确路径。去推测比特币挖矿转型的毛利率毫无意义（看看$ORCL仅因GPU利用率+建设->收入滞后就损失1亿美元+），即使某些公司可能有更大的容量。 所以只想说：Nebius是THE Neocloud。🫳🎙️
英文原文
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115. I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds. NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins. There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity. So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙️
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建议不要在市场波动时卖出通信芯片股票。
@justchilling40 不要在暴跌和反弹时卖出通信芯片(CC)。我这周没有卖出任何一只。
英文原文
@justchilling40 Don't sell CCs on crashes + recovery. I haven't sold any this week.
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博主首次关注LITE，计划周末研究。
@itsthesquonky 第一次听说 $LITE，看起来很有趣，我周末会研究一下。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky First time I’ve heard of $LITE, seems interesting I’ll take a look over the weekend
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更正股数并强调大规模禁售解禁带来的抛压风险
@DeepValueBagger 哎呀抱歉，是1.377亿股而不是1.57亿股。不过如果4倍流通盘(4x the float)变为可抛售压力，观点依然成立。如此大规模的禁售期(lockup)解禁从来都不是好事 https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Whoops sorry it’s 137.7M shares not 157M. Point still stands though if 4x the float becomes available as selling pressure. It’s never a good thing for that big of a lockup https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX
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警告 $CRCL 12 月巨额解禁风险，建议做空并做多 $COIN 对冲。
对 $CRCL 发出重大警告，尤其是临近 12 月 2 日。你交易的是一个低流通盘(low float)股票。 Circle 在 IPO 中以 31 美元的价格售出了 3400 万股 A 类股。目前 A 类股总股本为 202,550,578 股。 所有流通 A 类股中的 77.6%（1.57 亿/2.0255 亿）以及约 463% 的 IPO 流通盘将在 12 月解禁(unlocked)。 如果非要操作，我建议在事件发生前做空 $CRCL 并做多 $COIN 作为对冲(hedge)。
英文原文
Huge warning on $CRCL, especially going into December 2nd. You're trading on a low float. Circle sold 34M Class A shares in the IPO at $31. There's 202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding. 77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) and ~463% of the 34M IPO float will be unlocked in December. If anything I'd go short + long COIN as hedge during before the event.
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分析Nebius收入滞后及估值，预测1年内市值达1000亿美元。
是的，完全确认收入可能存在约12-16个月的滞后，但来自 $MSFT 交易的季度收入很可能在2026年Q4和2027年Q1实现。如果 Nebius 完全停止增长，该季度收入同比将增长1000%+至12.25亿美元/季度（约49亿美元 ARR）。当然，这是一家超大规模扩展公司，所以我预计另一个 Mag7 交易加上其他企业/SMB客户会推高这一数字（这就是我们如何在1年内达到1000亿美元市值的原因）。此外，我使用了6-8倍的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入）和15-25倍的 EV/EBITDA（企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润），这是保守的，而非10-15倍的 P/S（市销率）。这是核心业务（例如，330亿美元核心业务中位数 + 从分部加总（现金、GPU、Clickhouse等资产）折价40%），如果没有任何数字增长，今天的中位数约为390亿美元。
英文原文
Yep, there's probably ~12-16 month-ish revenue lag for full recognition but quarterly revenue with $MSFT deal would likely be realized Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. With that Q revenue would increase over 1000%+ Y/Y to $1.225B/quarter (~$4.9B ARR) if Nebius stopped growing completely. But of course this is a hyper-scaling company, so I'd expect another Mag7 deal + other enterprise/SMB clients to bring that number up (which is how we get to $100B MC from here in 1 year time) Also, I used EV/Revenue of 6–8× and EV/EBITDA of 15–25, which is conservative not P/S multiple of 10-15. This was the core business (eg. $33B core business midpoint + 40% discounted from sum of parts (cash, GPUs, assets like clickhouse), which would put it to ~$39B today midpoint if there's zero growth in any number.
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解析机构利用期权对冲放大波动并低位吸筹，散户恐慌后股价反弹。
DW，Reddit 总是被关注。但我不认为“市场操纵”是合适的措辞。我的猜测是：板块做空时机与 The Information 的负面报道相吻合 -> 机构利用做市商(MM)对手方卖出短期看涨和看跌期权带来的机械对冲，来放大下行风险（加上上周的磁吸效应）。 随后几个红色交易日后 -> 散户恐慌性抛售至 $94 -> 机构在不推动价格的情况下吸纳卖盘。 随着更多数据浮现，事实证明机构在底部积累的判断相当准确。看来弱手已被洗出，现在我们将走高，但 FinX 社区可能从这次回调中赚了不少钱。
英文原文
DW, Reddit is always regarded. But I don't think market manipulation is a good way to word it. My guess was sector short timed with The Information hit piece -> instituions taking advantage of mechanical hedging from MMs from counterparty selling of shortdated calls + puts to exaggerate downside (+ pinning from last week) Then few red days after -> retail panic selling to $94 -> institutions soaking up sales without moving prices. And with more data surfacing, turned out to be pretty accurate with institutional accumulation at bottom. Weak hands got shaken off I guess and now we go higher, but FinX community probably made a lot of money off the dip.
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机构借恐慌在暗池增持 $NBIS，基本面支撑其 390 亿估值。
本周散户恐慌导致 $NBIS 暴跌至 94 美元。 不幸的是，许多散户不在本社区内，仅因股价下跌（混合做市商机械对冲）便在恐惧中抛售。 过去两天，Nebius 股价反弹超 17%。 这就是为什么信念 + 基本面/知识 > 股价。 下跌期间，机构通过暗池(dark pools)等渠道悄悄入场增持。 _ 基本面上，Nebius 被严重低估。我对 $NBIS 的基础估值约为 390 亿美元，若再获一家超大规模云厂商合作，一年内有望达 1000 亿美元。 Nebius 为微软 Azure 等未来超大规模基础设施提供算力。机构深知这一点，并将不惜一切代价增持这家全球算力核心公司的股份。 如果散户不能从基本面建立信念，也不理解机构如何利用暗池、期权流向等在不扰动价格的情况下积累筹码，他们就会纯粹因恐惧而非实质性变化而投降。 正如我在今日 Seeking Alpha 文章《Nebius 回调，聪明钱的入场点》中指出： “WhaleStream 报告显示约 1 亿美元净流入集中在 103.90 美元附近，显示新的机构兴趣。 Fintel 数据（源自 Nasdaq、FINRA 和 Capital IQ）证实，场外做空比率接近 19%，强化了机构通过暗池大量买入 Nebius 的观点。 实际上，这支持了大部分 Nebius 买入是通过暗池悄悄进行的观点，这与观察到的看涨期权积累相一致。” 积累是战略性的，但隐藏在明处。不要被震仓出局。
英文原文
This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94. Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone. In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%. This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price. During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods. _ Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership. Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute. If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes. As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point": "WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options." Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.
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Nebius机构正借散户恐慌在暗池吸筹，基本面强劲，属买入良机。
@MB_Hogan 哈哈，关于暗池流入的第1点，正是我在底部时大声疾呼的内容。不幸的是，许多散户被洗出局了，不过这篇总结帖很棒！
英文原文
@MB_Hogan lol point #1 with dark pool inflows what I was screaming at the bottom Unfortunately a lot of retail got wiped out, great summary post though! https://t.co/tC4HCQ9B3a
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分析CIFR稀释影响，建议NBIS短线获利但长线持有。
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR 在约 16 美元时经历了 16% 的稀释，现在又回到了 19 美元，如果触及可转换票据（Convertible Note）编号，情况并非末日般糟糕。对于短期交易而言，在 140 美元左右获利了结 $NBIS 这类股票是明智之举，但我坚持其 1000 亿美元市值（Market Cap）的目标，因此我个人至少会持有 1 年。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR hit 16% dilution at $16 or so and now it's back at $19, it's not doom and gloom if it hits convertible note number. For short term trading, it's a smart to take profits on stuff like $NBIS at $140, but I stand by $100B MC so I'm personally holding 1 year min.
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博主买入NBIS看涨期权，以真金白银验证其投资信念。
@accounting_ds 是的，人们可以称之为疯狂，但我没看到他们在 $NBIS 上采取任何头寸。我在过去两周购买了价值 50 多万美元的看涨期权，所以我用真金白银为我的观点背书。我只是记录下我的思维过程，即我是如何建立这种信念的。
英文原文
@accounting_ds Yeah, people can call it crazy but I don't see them taking any positions on $NBIS. I bought $500k+ calls in the last two weeks so I put my money where my mouth is. I'm just writing down my train of thoughts in terms of how I developed my conviction.
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Nebius凭借全栈软件及运营效率，在利润率上优于纯容量型AI云厂商。
就纯上行潜力而言，$IREN 仅因纯粹的吉瓦(GW)容量而颇具前景。然而，$NBIS 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)。 随着最近发布的 Nebius 白皮书，他们公布了一些关于 GPU 利用率等数据。其全栈软件(full stack software)加上涵盖初创企业和中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化其运营支出(opex)，这是人们对其如何最大化 GPU 利润率的误解性护城河(misunderstood moat)。 人们试图将矿工(miners)框架化为潜在的转型者，但如果我们看看 $ORCL 的建设情况，他们在利润率转化上挣扎（建设后的 GPU 利用率等）。拥有其他软件层会压缩利润率，$CRWV 对此深有体会，这也是他们近期花费数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，原始容量并不总能转化为良好的利润率。全栈能力+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户，使 Nebius 具有明显优势。
英文原文
So in terms of raw upside, $IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity. However, $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return out of any Neocloud. With the recent Nebius whitepaper, they published a bit about GPU utilization, etc. Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is a misunderstood moat in terms of how they maximize margins from GPUs. People try to frame miners as potential pivots but if we look at $ORCL builtout, they were struggling with margins that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers like compresses margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins. So being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs gives Nebius a clear edge.
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论证NBIS估值偏低，指出即使零增长其市值仍有大幅上涨空间。
1. 不，我说的是 $NBIS 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡可能存在一些收入滞后，但合同将在 2026 年底至 2027 年期间兑现，且其现有数据加上微软处于 $49 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）的基准情形，我估计即使没有增长，其市值（MC）也比当前高出 62.5%。 我使用零增长作为例子，仅仅是为了展示该业务本身在结构上被低估的程度。 2. 这是一个关于如何达到 1000 亿市值的高层概述，而非全面分析。我在括号中提到未深入探讨 GPU 折旧和电力容量问题。但总体而言，即使是旧款 GPU 也能保持价值并继续提供收益。
英文原文
1. No i said there’s likely some revenue lag on $NBIS $MSFT ramp up but the contract will play out by late 2026 and into 2027 and their existing numbers + MSFT is at the base case $4.9B ARR, which id estimate is +62.5% from here MC wise if there were no growth. I use 0 growth as an example just to show how structurally undervalued the business is as is. 2. This was a high level overview on how we get to $100B MC not a full blown analysis. I mentioned in brackets I didn’t go into GPU depreciation and power capacity. But generally with GPUs even older models keep their value and still deliver equity.
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NBIS核心业务估值扎实，若获新云厂商合同，市值有望年内破千亿。
你说得对，分部估值之和(Sum of Parts)确实会更高。 撇开子公司不谈，其核心运营业务在零增长的基础情景下，未来两年年化经常性收入(ARR)为50亿美元，毛利率为60-70%。 然而它仍在增长，若能再签下一家超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的合同，$NBIS 一年内市值轻松突破1000亿美元。
英文原文
You’re right, sum of parts would be worth more. Subsidaries aside, the main operational business which at the base case no growth for the next two years is 5B ARR, 60-70% gross margins. However it’s still growing and with one more hyperscaler contract, NBIS can easily be $100b+ in a year
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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建议忽略WLAC盘前盘后波动，因其价差过宽。
@capybara_830 $WLAC 的买卖价差非常宽。我会直接忽略盘前或盘后的任何交易活动。
英文原文
@capybara_830 $WLAC has very wide spreads. I’d just ignore any after hours or pre market activity
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市场高波成长股普跌，深度超卖股如NBIS现买入良机。
是的，现在对许多投资者来说确实是一段艰难时期，$HOOD 跌 7%，$RKLB 跌 10%，$TE 跌 13%，$CIFR 跌 15%，许多量子计算概念股单日下跌 20%。这对大多数人来说压力很大。 任何高贝塔值(高波动性)/成长型股票都遭到重创。 但积极的一面是，如果像 $NBIS 这样已经深度超卖且进一步被抛售的股票，就会转化为绝佳的买入机会。希望这对你们有利，只是需要一点耐心！
英文原文
Yeah it's definitely rough times right now for a lot of investors, $HOOD down 7%, $RKLB down 10%, $TE down 13%, $CIFR down 15%, many quantum names down 20% all in a single day. Very stressful for most people. Anything high beta/growth got nuked together. But the positive thing is, if it's already deeply oversold + got sold off even more like $NBIS, then it turns into a great buying opportunity. I hope it plays out well for you, just requires a bit of patience!